Name LalitLalwani (AM0812) Muneek Shah (AM2112)

Subject Public vs. Private Transportation Demand in India

Submitted To Prof. Shreekant Iyengar

Date 21 January 2013

Introduction

As the cities expand, there is a consequential expansion of transportation needs. Urbanization brings with it increased affluence which results in increased mobility. There is daily mobility of people from their homes to the work place, to accomplish domestic needs and undertake journeys for social needs such as visiting friends and shopping. Many of the cities can be defined as automobile dependent with established high rates of automobile ownership and in particular private ownership.

The automobile has truly revolutionized society over the past century bringing benefits of increased personal mobility and access to the broadest range of goods and services. However, it has many negative impacts including environmental damage caused by emissions of pollutants. Increased automobile usage also creates substantial externalities in the form of congestion, increased traffic noise, accidents and loss of urban environmental amenity

Automobile usage has a significant impact on the economy since transportation accounts for the largest consumption of worlds petroleum. About half of the worlds petroleum is used by transportation, making it central to international concerns over energy security and political stability in energy-producing as well as consuming regions.

Motorization in urban India is growing faster than the population; automobile ownership growth rates are of the order of 1520% per annum in most cities. The automobile seems to be the dominant transportation mode choice with at least 85% of the total share of all journey-to-the office.

The increased use of private means of transportation is a major factor directly linked to energy use and environmental quality. In India, the share of public transportation peaks among people living in the megapolis regions, where the supply networks and systems are appropriate. The expanding use of two wheelers (2W) in these cities is due to poor public transportation facilities. The younger population (2035-age group), which accounts for nearly 60% of the population use to rely mostly on 2-wheelers avoiding public transportation (Reddy, 2011). Car driving is increasingly becoming dominating mode of transport in major cities.

Aim
The study aims to analyse the demand of public transport and private transport in Indian cities.

Objective
a) To understand the demand in public and private transport. b) To find out the factors affecting the decline in the demand of public transport. c) To understand the customer preference of private transport over public transport.

Literature Review
The Rapid urbanization in Asian cities has is allegedly the genesis to several urban traffic problems. Major concern is the rapid and excessive growth of private vehicles and declining public transport. Urban transportation problems have in debated a great deal from these two reasons. In India motorization came late as compared to other Asian cities but surpassed their number in two decades. Indian cities were basically characterized by narrow meandering streets which had a bazaar character. All old cities exhibit the same quality. The other aspect was Indian cities grew radial between activity centres and residential areas and infilling resulted in sprawl. Roads were not uniform and due to unplanned development, roads had no functional hierarchy.

People were largely dependent on public transport which was primarily rail and buses. Development in economy and rise in income gave rise to many aspirations. (Mijar, 2006-08)

The Techniques to study and quantify the mode choice process have been in use and development for decades. The methodologies are involved and reflect the complexity of the travel behaviour, the range of factors that impact on the choice process, the interaction between variables during decision-making and the variability due to the diversity of travellers making these decisions themselves. (Corpuz, 2008)

The existing modal share in Indian cities is in favour of Non-motorized transport (NMT) and public transport. However given the hostile conditions for public transport and increasing risk to pedestrians and cyclists, the use of personal motorized vehicle is increasing. This trend is accompanied with the rise in traffic crashes and deteriorating air quality in cities. Emission levels vary with travel behaviour which is dependent on city size, structure and mode choice available. (Tiwari, 2011)

The worrying factor is car ownership in India is still significantly lower than what is in a developed city. The Indian economic boom has in its wake provided a great opportunity for an urban dweller to acquire personalized modes which he has taken to with glee given that the public transport system in every city without an exception has fallen short of meeting the increasing demand and expectation level. The urban road chaos is increasing day by day with ever increasing car ownership. Infrastructure shortages are increasingly showing their ugly arm with traffic snarls and grid locks.

Unless problems are remedied, poor mobility can become a major dampener to economic growth and also cause quality of life to deteriorate. If we let things lie as they are, the future of the urban area in India looks bleak. Streets could become parking lots. The dent this may have on the economics of India is unthinkable. The National Urban Transport Policy has been set out to

tackle urban mobility issues to ensure a safe and sustainable urban mobility in the coming decades. (Wilbur Smith Associates, 2008)

The secondary research method is used to measure and predict car and public transport demand in India and International market. The methodologies are involved and reflect the complexity of the travel behaviour, the range of factors that impact on the choice process, the interaction between variables during decision-making and the variability due to the diversity of travellers making these decisions themselves. (Garg, 2008)

Three basic reasons for Decrease in Public Transportation (Nakamura, 2007) 1. Increasing automobile dependency Restraining private vehicular usage is the need of the day as the impacts they are causing to physical growth, environment, and society are hazardous. Public transport is the only safe mode of transport which has to be encouraged by discouraging private vehicle use. This is an attempt to develop such sustainable strategies which will reduce private vehicular usage and encourage public transport. 2. Lack of land use transport integrating policies Space should be reserved for mass transit in corridors selected for development. Authorities should select locations for the development of basic public services (water, sewerage, power) in such a way as to encourage public transport based developments. Plans for local travel should include provision for non-motorized transport and walking. 3. Neglecting public transport Transport being a high investment sector with low returns it is neglected by Local Authority, State or Central body. In all the states the mass transport system is running in losses. Building MRTS (METRO) and BRTS in all cities wouldnt work unless strong policies are made to restrain private vehicle usage in city.

List of 11 problems faced by urban mobility (UITP, 2003) Problem 1: More and more people are living in urban areas Problem 2: Many cities are developing anarchically Problem 3: There is a lack of dedicated institutions to address urban mobility issues Problem 4: People have limited access to motorized transport Problem 5: Cities are under-investing in infrastructure Problem 6: Air in urban areas is increasingly polluted Problem 7: Too many people die or are injured in traffic accidents Problem 8: Growing congestion is a widespread problem in almost all cities Problem 9: Urban sprawl and usage of cars increases emissions of greenhouse gases Problem 10: Increase in travel also means increase in energy consumption Problem 11: Car infrastructure uses urban space inefficiently

The following objectives are considered to carry out study of Public vs. Private Transportation: - (Mijar, 2006-08)

Travel Characteristics The vehicle dependency is increasing as public transport share is decreasing. It was also seen that mainly lower income group use public transport. Private vehicles occupy 85 % of road space and buses occupy only 0.3 %. Later time series data was compared and it was seen that as vehicular growth has increase travel time and reduced travel speed. This has many environmental impacts. (Corpuz, 2008)

Road Network Radials have high dependency due to which they are highly congested. Road density per sq.km is sufficient in but when vehicular density on per km roads was compared it was seen that private vehicles are growing in double folds leaving very little space for other modes like buses, cycles and pedestrians

Private Vehicle Growth The private vehicular growth when related with population, income and area growth it was realized that two wheelers grew as population grew and cars grew in relation to income. Public transport growth rate and vehicle growth was compared in time series which clearly illustrates that vehicles grew leaving negligible road space for buses due to which buses declined. In addition to all this private vehicles are also causing great loss to environment and are hampering the safety of people.

Decline in Public Transport The rise in private vehicles and inadequate public transport lead to reduction in number of passengers. Buses are running half empty. Public transport went in deep financial loss due to over expenditure on maintenance and more than enough staff. Source of income being just fare collection kept on declining due to declining in number of passengers. Only the low income group opted for bus transport. Buses are necessary for the city. They must be encouraged as they carry people and do not affect the environment as compared to private modes.

Urbanization and population growth Urbanization has affected our city structure and growth to a great extent. One of those aspects is the impact of private vehicles on cities due to high automobile dependency. European cities first saw the birth of cars and its effects on their cities in terms of land use, environment, heritage etc thus introducing the concepts like planning for cars, transit oriented development etc.

American cities which have maximum car ownership show a huge impact of cars on their city structure and land use that developed highways & freeways.

Americans and Europeans early realized the need of effective urban sustainable transport by realizing increase of car use and problems associated with it. Problems ranged from physical, environmental, social and economic as transport and mobility is like a thread which runs through every sector and activity. (Cristopher W Jenks, 2009)

Automobiles when arrived in Asian cities lacked basic infrastructure to support it. Then appear tarred road which changed the urban growth scenario. Many cities still lack a direction of which thought process to follow. Of either building more and more roads or building efficient public transport. In fact both are contrasting thoughts which have to work together. (Ramahandran, 2007)

The public transport demand largely depends on the fare structure, service quality, operation plan, system efficiency and route allocation. These can be broadly categorized as the ones which effect public transport demand directly and others, which can play a role of catalyst, known as latent variables. Following are some of the direct and latent variables (Ar Anuj Jaiswal, October, 2012) Direct variables 1. Travel Cost: cost form origin to Destination by any mode 2. Travel Time: time taken 3. Trip Length: distance from origin to destination 4. Comfort levels: posses inside and outside 5. Accessibility: approach to provide transport facilities 6. Availability of feeder services: vicinity for model interchange

Latent variables 1. Land use: type of land use 2. Income: for affordability of private and public mode 3. Per Capita Trip Rate (PCTR): ratio of total trips to total city population. 4. Urban form and city structure: 5. System performance: efficiency of available system. 6. Demographic: working population, age ratio, sex ratio.

Table 1 Institutional structure for travel and transport decisions Infrastruc Vehicle Environm Fuel Safety Traffic Registrati ent Managem ture on ent CTTS or CMP, Traffic Municipality Transport Traffic police City Level by transport Police, or Public Department, department, Municipality works Regional Development City Bus department Transport Authorities services Office (Mumbai, Bangalore) Urban State SPCB State police State Level TCPO master plans and Development Transport (some states) regional plans (funding) Undertaking (Buses) NUTP JNNURM MORTH, CPCB, MORTH, MORTH National (guidelines (funding), (MVA) MOEF MOEF NCRB Level for CMP) NHAI Abbreviations in Table: CTTS: Comprehensive Traffic and Transport Plans, CMP: Comprehensive Mobility Plans, TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization, NUTP: National Urban Transport Policy, JNNURM: Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, NHAI: National Highway Authority, MORTH: Ministry of Roads and Highways, MVA: Motor Vehicles Act, CPCB: Central Pollution Control Board, MOEF: Ministry of Environment and Forests Travel Plans

Secondary Survey Data

a) Decline in public transport:Table 2 No. of City Buses Comparison Population No. Of buses Buses/1000 4300000 4734 1.10 1800000 1450 0.81 3600000 2600 0.72 4300000 2832 0.66 2500000 1126 0.45 3500000 1058 0.30 11900000 3404 0.29 14000000 3915 0.28 4500000 1138 0.25

Cities Bangalore Indore Hyderabad Chennai Pune Ahmedabad Mumbai Delhi Calcutta

Operating ratio 1.05 0.92 0.89 0.81 0.62 0.81 0.72 0.42

The basic reason for this is increase in vehicle ownership and usage and change in land use (for which private vehicles are also responsible), and low quality of public transport. Public transport being a high investment low return sector municipal corporations had been neglecting it before JNNURM made transport high priority sector and BRT and METROs now coming in metropolitan cities.

b) Passenger transport mode shares in Indian cities Passenger transport mode share refers to the percentage of passenger journeys or trips by the main mode of transport and is typically reported through travel surveys. Comparing passenger transport mode share across different cities is a challenging task. As travel surveys are typically conducted for long-term strategic planning purpose, such surveys are not conducted frequently and detailed reports are not always published. The situation is further complicated as the surveys are often commissioned by local governments. The geographical areas covered, sampling and interviewing techniques, questionnaire and stratification methods deployed by travel surveys vary greatly in different countries.

Mode Share in Ahmedabad

Private Transport Walk Public Transport Cycle Paratransit

6% 14% 42% 16%

22%
Figure 1 Mode Share in Ahmedabad It includes all modes for all purposes. Mass transit constitutes 16% of all journeys.

Mode Share in Bangalore

Private Transport Cycle Paratransit Public Transport Walk

26%

25%

7% 7% 35%

Figure 2 Mode Share in Bangalore Mass transit constitutes 35% of all journeys.

Mode Share in Delhi

Private Transport Cycle paratransit Public Transport Walk

21%

19%

12% 6% 42%

Figure 3 Mode Share in Delhi Mass transit constitutes 42% of all journeys.

Mode Share in Mumbai

Private Transport Paratransit Cycle Public Transport Walk

15% 27% 7% 6%

45%
Figure 4 Mode Share in Mumbai It includes all modes for all purposes. Mass transit constitutes 45% of all journeys.

c) Shift in transportation mode:-

It also projected the share of individual private- and Para-transit modes up to the year 2030-31. Since, the mobility share of cars, two-wheelers, and auto-rickshaws within the private- and Paratransit modes is virtually unchanged from 1993-94 onwards at 38%, 48.5%, and 13.5% respectively, we assumed that the same pattern will be followed up to the year 2030-31. Based on this assumption, the share of individual private- and Para-transit modes has been projected. It is estimated that, during the year 2030-31, 21.0% of the road-based traffic mobility in India will be provided by the cars, 26.8% by the two-wheelers, and remaining 7.5% by the auto-rickshaws.

Table 3 Decreasing Share of Public Transportation Year Traffic share of public transport mode (%) 1950-51 1955-56 1960-61 1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 81.2 85.3 85.5 85.2 85.4 87.0 86.4 83.5 80.6 80.3 75.7 Traffic share of private- and Para-transit modes (%) 18.8 14.7 14.5 14.8 14.6 13.0 13.6 16.5 19.4 19.7 24.3

From this data we can see that gradually the share of public transport decreases and the share of Para-transit and private transportation are increasing

Projection of traffic share of public transport mode up to the year 2030-31

Traffic share of Private and para-transit modes 75.2 72.2 67.9 63 57.5 48.6 42.5 37 24.3 27.8 32.1 51.4 55.3 44.7 Traffic share of public transport mode

2000-01

2005-06

2010-11

2015-16

2020-21

2025-26

2030-31

Figure 5 Future Projections of Traffic

Table 4 Number of Buses Owned by the Public and Private Sectors in India: 1961-2011 (Upadhyay, July 2012) Year (As on 31st Public Sector Private Sector Total March) 1961 18.0 38.8 56..8 1966 26.5 47.0 73.5 1971 --94.0 1976 52.2 62.8 115.0 1981 69.6 92.3 161.9 1986 84.0 143.3 227.3 1991 106.1 225.0 331.1 1996 111.1 338.7 449.8 2001 115.0 518.9 633.9 2002 114.7 520.3 635.0 2003 114.9 605.9 720.8 2004 111.4 656.2 767.6 2005 113.3 779.4 892.7 2006 112.1 879.9 992.0 2007 107.8 1242.5 1350.3 2008 113.6 1313.6 1427.2 2009 117.6 1368.0 1485.6 2010 118.8 1408.3 1527.1 2011 122.3 1481.5 1603.8

Major Metros Public Transportation Comparative Data (EMBARQ, 2010)

Figure 6 Boardings per day

Figure 7 Fleet Size

Table 5 Cost and Earnings City Wise

Primary Survey Data:

Here we Surveyed 50 people from the city of Ahmedabad, asking them 13 Questions about the mode of transportation they use in the everyday routine.

Question 1

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 50 respondents 64% of them were Male and 36% of them were Female

Question 2

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 50 respondents, 4% were having less than 10th Std., 12% were having 10th 12thStd, 50% were having Graduate and 34% were having Post Graduate level of Qualification

Question 3

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 50 respondents, 16% were of age group of less than 20 years, 48% were of age group of 20 to 29 years, 18% were of age group of 30 to 39 years and 18% were of age group of greater than 40 years

Question 4

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 50 respondents, 18% of people were using transportation daily to Commute to work, 16% of people were using transportation for shopping purpose, 18% of people were using transportation for Social Cause, 39% of people were using transportation to go to Schools or Colleges and 10% of people were using transportation for other purposes.

Question 5

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 10% use Ahmedabad Municipal Transport System , 18% use Bus Rapid Transit System, 16% use Auto Rickshaw/Shuttle, 10% use Taxi and 47% use Private Vehicles such as Car, Motorcycle, Moped or Bicycle as mode of Transportation

Question 6

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 37 respondents, 14% are strongly willing, 49% are willing 25% are not decided and 10% not willing

Question 7

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 8% use daily, 22% use frequently, 24% use occasionally, 35% use rarely and 12% never use Public Transportation. This indicates that approximately 47 % of people hardly depend on Public Transportation

Question 8

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 29% travel 15-20 Km per day, 24% travel 10-15 Km per day , 24% travel greater than 20 Km per day, 22% travel 5-10 Km per day and 2% travel less than 5 Km per day

Question 9

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents,35% has Expenditure of 10-50 Rs,25% has Expenditure of less than 10 Rs,14 % has Expenditure of 50-100 Rs, 14% has Expenditure of 100-150Rs and 12% has Expenditure of greater than 150 Rs per day. Therefore correlating with distance travelled, larger the distance travelled, greater the possibility of using public transport.

Question 10

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 49% are not satisfied with Public Transportation Facility, 31% are satisfied with Public Transportation and 20 % have no idea about the kind of service provided by Public Transportation because they havent experienced it by themselves.

Question 11

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 20% face the problem of Congestion, 18% face time consuming, 18% face the problem of Safety, 14% face problem of Status Consciousness, 12% face problem of Comfort, 12% face problem other problems and 8% face problem of bus timings according to their need . Question 12

From the above bar graph we can see that out of 50 respondents, 27% think increase in bus routes will solve their problem, 22% think increase in security will solve their problem, 20% think improvement in infrastructure will solve their problem, 16% think increase in fleet will solve their problem and 16% think that installing ACs in Public Transportation will solve their problem. Therefore, we can infer that by making the above improvements in bus routes, security and infrastructure, maximum no of people will opt for Public Transportation

Question 13

From the above pie chart we can see that out of 50 respondents, 35% has opinion Reduce Traffic Congestion, 22% has opinion Saving Personal Expense,35% has opinion decrease Pollution and 8% has other opinion by switching to Public Transportation

Correlation with data: a) The females mostly face problem of safety and status. b) The male faces problem of time consuming transportation and congestion. c) The people who are more than 30 year old are using public transport rarely and occasionally. d) The people who are more than 30 year old are travels more 15 km. e) The people who are going for school or colleges are mostly uses the private transport.

Recommendation
1. Integrating different modes of transport There is crying need for a transportation system, which is seamlessly integrated across all modes. The various modes of public transport including intermediate public transport have to work in tandem. The main aim of system integration should be to offer an attractive and easier to use transport system, leading to a better use of existing resources and improvement in the efficiency of service delivery and comfort for commuters. Integrated transport system has potential to attract people away from the private cars and two-wheelers and thus can contribute for congestion relief and environmental preservation.

2. Introducing public awareness program Public attitudes influence politicians and policy makers and increase the political will to tackle problems. The adverse health effect of air pollution and climate change due to vehicular emission need to be better understood and communicated as a means of influencing public attitudes. Media, NGOs and research institutions should be encouraged to highlight the issues, conduct independent analysis, and advocate possible solutions to policy makers and implementing agencies. At the same time, fair and equitable procedures for public complaints should be instituted. These can enhance awareness and understanding, influence public attitudes and public support, and create the necessary political will to tackle the problem of air pollution and climate change. 3. Implement Park and Ride Model of USA Park-and-ride facilities are car parks with connections to public transport that allow commuters and other people headed to city centers to leave their vehicles and transfer to a bus, rail system (rapid transit, light rail, or commuter rail), or carpool for the remainder of the journey. The vehicle is stored in the car park during the day and retrieved when the owner returns. Park-andrides are generally located in the suburbs of metropolitan areas or on the outer edges of large cities. 4. Reducing traffic congestion by increasing road capacity, Improvement in infrastructure

Conclusion
The study illustrates the various factors affecting the public transport failure. The people are more depended on the private transport. Other than this many proposals which are more necessary like i) ii) The safety is the primary reason for failure of public transport for women. The public transports are more time consuming and congested. To improve this factor we have to increase the buses fleet and routes of buses. iii) The comfort is major concern for the people who are more than 30 years old. To improve this factor it is necessary to install ACs or seating space increases.

References
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