Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 4, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 4, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Spanish unemployment increased to 59400 in the month of February. UKs Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 46.8 level in the month of February. European equities are trading lower following negative Asian Markets. US stock futures are trading lower and Asian markets ended on negative note except Japanese market which ended positive on the back of expectations of stimulus package from Bank of Japan. Spanish unemployment rises to 59400 in the month of February as compared to 132100 in January. UKs Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 46.8 level in the month of February as compared to 48.7 levels in January. Spot gold prices are trading on a flat note due to rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments and stronger DX. Spot Gold increased by 0.12 percent, making an intraday high of $1584.5/oz and hovered around $1576.79/oz today till 4.30pm. In MCX, gold prices are trading lower on account of flat movement in the international spot gold prices, but a sharp downfall in prices are cushioned due to depreciation in the Indian rupee. Taking cues from gold prices , Spot silver prices are trading on firm note around 0.53 percent higher. However, decline in UK construction PMI, negative sentiments in the market amid worries over global growth and Strength in DX capped the sharp rise in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $28.80/oz and was trading at $28.70/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, prices traded on a negative note around 0.07 percent lower. MCX Silver is trading around Rs.53830 /kg today till 4:30pm IST. Base Metals group traded on negative note due to decline in construction PMI in UK, increase in LME inventories and Strength in DX. Further, negative sentiments in the global markets also added downside pressure. However, Positive Unemployment change data from spain and positive outcome from euro group meeting cushioned the sharp downfall in the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals is trading on flat note on the back of rise in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent which stood at 462,400 tonnes. On the MCX, Copper touched an intra-day low of Rs427.30/kg and was trading at Rs428.85/kg today till 4:30pm IST. Nymex crude oil prices decreased by 0.18 percent on the back of negative sentiments in the market, decline in Construction PMI from UK, and Stronger DX. On MCX, sharp downfall in prices was cushioned due to depreciation in the Indian Rupee. On the MCX, Crude Oil touched an intra-day low of Rs4978/bbl and was trading at Rs4989/bbl today till 4:30pm IST. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 4 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5704.70 18920.90 11695.45 2028.55 15542.02

5712.00 18930.86 11767.68 2029.32 15563.89

5663.60 18760.41 11613.59 2011.09 15406.76

5698.50 18877.96 11652.29 2013.15 15406.76

-0.37 -0.21 0.40 -0.66 -1.22

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 4 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.36 1.3011 54.88

82.53 1.3031 55.13

82.29 1.298 54.85

82.435 1.2993 54.865

0.09 -0.21 -0.06

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 4 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1576.65 1580.80 29770.00 28.56 28.23 54240 90.71 110.58 5010 7749.75 430.30 2032.00 111.20 2259 123.95 16655 918.70 1975.00 107.50

1584.50 1580.80 29770.0 28.80 28.69 54240 90.89 110.65 5010 7761.00 430.30 2036.00 111.20 2261 124.00 16739 918.70 1979.00 107.80

1572.40 1572.30 29642.0 28.50 28.55 53638 90.09 110.02 4978 7670.00 427.30 2008.00 110.10 2225 122.60 16543 912.40 1965.50 107.10

1576.79 1578.30 29653.00 28.70 28.69 53830 90.52 110.52 4989 7720.25 428.85 2009.50 110.10 2239 122.85 16588 914.10 1966.50 107.10

0.12 0.41 -0.29 0.53 0.84 -0.07 -0.18 0.11 -0.56 0.00 -0.52 -0.91 -1.21 -0.82 -1.13 -0.28 -0.82 -0.38 -0.60

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | March 4, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session we expect Precious metal, Base metals and Crude oil to trade on negative note due to weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, decline in Construction PMI in UK may also add downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of positive outcome from euro group meeting, and depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushioned sharp downfall in prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 4 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29275 1553 54081 28.08 6034 4903 89.05 185.6 7550 423.3 109 121.4 105.9 892.7 Support 1 29496 1564 54536 28.43 6064 4956 90 188 7635 426.9 109.6 122.3 106.8 906.7 CMP 29660 1577.6 54912 28.73 6080 4987 90.55 188.8 7722 428.65 11.05 122.8 106.95 913.8 Resistance1 29780 1587 55186 28.93 5128 5014 91.05 191.3 7820 432.6 111.55 124.1 107.85 921 Resistance 2 29923 1598 55641 29.28 6150 5063 91.95 192.5 7920 434.7 112.45 125.2 108.45 930.8

Important Events for Today

Indicator Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Euro group Meetings Construction PMI FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Country Europe UK Europe UK US Time (IST) 1:30pm 4th-7th All Day 3:00pm 6:30pm Actual 59.4K 46.8 49.2 Forecast 77.5K Previous 132.1K -0.2% 48.7 Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium