Proc. of the 5 International Conference on Advances in Mechanical Engineering (ICAME-2011), June 06-08, 2011 S.V.

National Institute of Technology, Surat 395 007, Gujarat, India

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Multiagent Approach for Modeling the Process of Energy Distribution

T.V. Avdeenko*, M.A. Vasiljev Novosibirsk State Technical University, prosp. K. Marx 20, 630092, Novosibirsk, Russia * Corresponding author (e-mail: tavdeenko@mail.ru) The paper presents application of multiagent approach to model the process of energy distribution. This modelling will allow to keep the balance between generation and consumption and so to provide an optimal load distribution between the stations, to contribute to the cost-effective operations on purchase and sale of electricity. On the basis of previous analysis of Moscow Energy Company we choose the actors (intelligent agents) of the system and present conceptual scheme of their internal structure and cooperation. 1. Introduction

The task of planning the level of power consumption is a priority in the planning of energy supply companies. Preparation of the plan involves solving the problem of determining the energy balance - the relationship between electricity demand and capacity and capability of its coverage. The accuracy of the plan, in its turn, significantly affects the outcome of economic indicators of energy supply companies and acquires a qualitatively new meaning under conditions of the wholesale electricity and power market development [1]. Urgency of precise planning of electricity consumption is caused by technological and economic reasons. First of all, we should pay attention to the fact that the work of power plants occurs in accordance with the planned schedules, calculated on the basis of forecasts of energy consumption. A character-valued specific of managing the process of sales of energy is the need to constantly keep in balance - correspondence of generating capacity to the level of consumption. If the level of energy generation is not equal to consumption, then this inequality is instantly reflected on the basic parameters of the electric modes, especially at the current frequency. According to [2], from an economic point of view precise planning provides an optimal load distribution between the stations, contributes to the cost-effective operations on purchase and sale of electricity. There are three types of planning [2]: o long-term planning (for a period of a month to a year); o short-term planning (for a period of a day to a month); o operative mode control (minutes, hours). The accuracy of the calculated plan is determined by adequacy of mathematical models of forecasting. However, as practice shows, the accuracy of prediction with use of mathematical modeling in this area leaves much to be desired. The average relative errors are greater than 2.5% at long-term planning, and 1,3% for the operational forecasts [2]. Forecasting errors provoke incorrect planning of the energy sales, which leads to an increase in cost of the processes of generation and distribution of energy. The main cause of such errors is the lack of adequacy of description with models to the real processes. The goal of present paper is to formulate promising approach to modelling the processes of generation and distribution of energy. Multiagent approach is based on AI methods and allows to

2.

Methodology of multiagent modeling

In describing the processes of applications of any complexity, the problems of modeling the properties and behavior of objects are a priority and fundamental. The modeling is the basis for analyzing the processes of given subject area, determining the most

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Proc. of the 5 International Conference on Advances in Mechanical Engineering (ICAME-2011), June 06-08, 2011 S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat 395 007, Gujarat, India

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probable behavior of the system in various conditions. The modeling results provide support for decision making when planning the management of the object under consideration. Issues of modeling the environment and the system functioning in it, whether it be technical or economic, are studied in many different disciplines. Object-oriented modeling and simulation are the most proven methods. They both consider the problem of behavior of the system and the environment in different ways. Object-oriented modeling emphasizes the researcher on the logic of interaction between system objects and their structure, in contrast to the simulation based on mathematical models. Because the action plan built on the basis of the simulated states of the system and the environment will have some discrepancies with reality, the decision maker must clearly understand how to most effectively use one or another approach of modeling and, if necessary, to ensure reciprocal addition of several approaches. What is the reason for the appearance of these inconsistencies in the characteristics of simulated and real processes? Here we must state that any simulation model has a certain level of assumptions and errors due to the complexity of describing all the properties of objects and taking into account the specificity of their changes over time. The abovementioned features of the simulation include: the ability of objects to self-learning, selfperfection, solving the problems on the basis of experience, beliefs, rules, facilities that allow to the most closely approximate the reality with simulation process. Lack of the above characteristics of a simulated process reduces the level of fit of simulation models to the real processes. In addition to reducing the adequacy there are problems concerning perception and interpretation of simulation results by analysts, economists and decision-makers. Investigation of these issues is discussed in a number of papers of Leigh Tesfatsion [3,4,5]. The papers propose a new vision of simulation methods for weakly formalized processes: the emphasis is on the importance of improving the object-oriented techniques of modeling. Considering the issues of improving these techniques one should pay attention to the relatively new approach to modeling (1990 - 2000) - agent-based (multiagent) modeling. This technique is used to analyze systems whose functioning is not determined by global laws (as in other modeling concepts), and conversely, when the global rules are the result of the actions of each object of a certain group [4]. Thus, getting ideas about these global rules, the general behavior of the system and the environment from the assumptions about private behavior of its individual parts is the goal of agent-based models. The advantage of this approach has a versatile character. First, the model obtained as a result of agent-based modeling reflects the structure of the analyzed system and the environment in which it operates (the model structure obtained in accordance with the principles of object-oriented methodology) to the maximum extent. Second, the parts of the resulting model are objects, having activity, autonomous behavior. Third, this autonomy, in turn, allows an object to make decisions in accordance with a set of rules, to interact with the environment, as well as to self-modify (for example, in accordance with mathematical models borrowed from the simulation). In the agent-oriented methodology the objects are called agents. Software tools suitable for agent-based modeling are now widely available. Nevertheless, their use is still the most common in science and engineering disciplines with highly developed traditions of computer simulation. Research works, related to improving this field of modeling, for the most part consider the problems of creating the simulation tools for testing of new hypotheses and identifying new patterns. According to Leigh Tesfatsion [5], computer simulations have not yet accepted as standard tools of investigation of the economy, in particular for solving problems of production planning for the organizations. Given the rapidly growing capabilities of computers, there comes a good time to revaluate these modeling techniques. Decision makers are faced with the perception of complex empirical processes, including various structural conditions, institutional arrangements and human behavioral factors. Thus, there is strong reason to believe that the presented range of issues has not previously been sufficiently investigated.

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Proc. of the 5 International Conference on Advances in Mechanical Engineering (ICAME-2011), June 06-08, 2011 S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat 395 007, Gujarat, India

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3. Development of multiagent approach for modelling the processes of generation and distribution of energy Returning to the problem of improving the quality of decision making in the building the plan of energy consumption, we consider the planning process from a position of agentoriented approach. It is proved [2] that the change in energy consumption depends on the behavior of several objects: o enterprises - the role of energy consumers; o population - the role of energy consumers; o weather - the role of initiator of change in consumers' behavior; o the length of a day - the role of initiator of change in consumer' behavior; mass media - the role of initiator of change in consumer' behavior. In addition to consumers and initiators of energy we determine a group of power generators and regulators of energy tariffs. All of these items should be considered from the perspective of agent-oriented approach.

Figure 1. Conceptual diagram of multi-agent planning of system power consumption

Before the building of agent system based on agent-oriented approach it is necessary to conduct a study of the simulated system and the environment in terms of their structure. What is the speed of response of consumers to influence the initiator of change in consumption? What is the scope of consumption? What is set of groups of consumers? For example, analysts determined [2] that in Mosenergo (Moskow Energy Company) substantial proportion of consumers are the objects of consumers' groups - "public household" electrical load. Electricity consumption is significantly affected the length of a day and the temperature. Effect of temperature is especially important in the heating season (winter) and transition periods that are adjacent to the heating season (spring and autumn). Heating during these transition periods is disabled in whole or in part. Waves of cooling cause people to resort to alternative sources of heat. As a rule electric heaters are used in this case. Effect of temperature during these periods increases to 200 megawatt by 1 degree Celsius (typically

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Proc. of the 5 International Conference on Advances in Mechanical Engineering (ICAME-2011), June 06-08, 2011 S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat 395 007, Gujarat, India

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40-80 megawatt / degree). Change in cloudiness with precipitation causes an increase in consumption to 300 megawatt. Fluctuations of meteorological factors cause surges of electricity, forcing urgently to introduce reserve generating capacity with all the attendant problems of this situation - violations of dispatching schedules, unplanned fuel consumption, lower reliability and efficiency of the energy system. Dispatching personnel of Mosenergo during such periods is especially needed in accurate forecasts of changes in consumption based on weather factors. Similarly, we can make an analysis of the power market of any other region or area. Based on the results of this analysis we can determine categories of actors, and specify the characteristics of their behavior and peculiarities of mutual interaction. From the point of view of agent-oriented approach these categories can be regarded as intelligent agents. The conceptual diagram in fig.1 shows the agents possessed of the ability to reason on the basis of production rules, to plan their activities and interact with each other. The interaction is based on message passing between agents. Obtained on the basis of the scheme and agents' specifications, multi-agent system will support decision-making in the construction of plan of power consumption. The planning process will become more transparent to decision makers. The user of multi-agent system will obtain an opportunity to study the evolution of the market, to follow variations in the activity of energy consumption depending on the influence of the environment, to analyze the changing of balance between the power generator and the consumers in future periods to adjust the volume of energy generation for reducing the costs. Implemented in multi-agent system, algorithms and methods of planning the parameters and technical and economic indicators, should provide improvement as they accumulate the experience of practical application, which can be easily adapted to specific conditions in many regional energy companies. Acknowledgement The research has been supported by Federal Agency of Science and Innovations, Russia, State Contract No 02.710.11.0354. References [1] Makoklyuev B.I., Salmanov B.I. and Antonov A.V. Statistical analysis and planning of technical and economic performance of power systems based on software complex "Energostat" / / Energy. 2002, no. 3. - in Russian. [2] Makoklyuev B.I., Vladimirov A.I.and Fefelova G.I. Forecasting of electricity consumption in the AO Mosenergo .- Energy, 2001, 4, P. 56-57. - in Russian. [3] Leigh Tesfatsion How economists can get alife Economics Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ [4] Leigh Tesfatsion Agent-Based Computational Economics: Growing economies from the bottom up Economics Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ace.htm [5] Leigh Tesfatsion. Agent-Based Computational Economics: Modelling Economies as Complex Adaptive Systems. Economics Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/

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