Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 7, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 7, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

Japans Overnight Call Rate remained unchanged at 0.1 percent. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 5.9 billion Euros in January German Factory Orders declined by 1.9 percent in February. European equities are trading on a flat note today as investors are looking forward to Central bank meeting. US stock futures are trading in the green and Asian markets ended on a negative note. Japans Overnight Call Rate remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the month of March. Leading Indicators rose by 96.3 percent in January as against a rise of 93.2 percent a month ago. German Factory Orders declined by 1.9 percent in the month of February as compared to 1.1 percent rise in January. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 5.9 billion Euros in January as against a previous deficit of 5.4 billion Euros a month ago. Spot gold prices declined by 0.14 percent on the back of mixed global market sentiments and as gold safe heaven appeal fades. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1578.59/oz and hovered around $1581.15/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from drop in gold prices, Spot silver prices fell by 0.45 percent today. Weakness in DX coupled with decline in borrowing cost for spain and France cushioned sharp downfall in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $28.85/oz and was trading at $28.88/oz in todays trade. On the domestic markets, prices traded on a negative note on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee. On MCX, Silver touched an intra-day low of Rs54909/Kg and hovered around Rs54968/Kg today till 4:30pm IST. The base metals pack, traded on a flat note on the back of Mixed global market sentiments along with Increase in LME inventories. Expectations that major central banks will maintain the stimulus measures to spur growth and as cost of borrowing for Spain and france declined coupled with weakness in DX cushioned downfall in prices .Appreciation in Indian Rupee added fall in the prices on MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals is trading on flat note on the back of rise in LME copper inventories by 1.6 percent which stood at 481,225 tonnes. Additionally, appreciation in the Indian rupee also added downside pressure on the prices. On the MCX, Copper touched an intra-day low of Rs425.60/kg and was trading at Rs427.25/kg today till 4:30pm IST Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.29 percent today on the back of weakness in DX and expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its bond buying program and as cost of borrowing for Spain and france declined. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on the back of rise in crude oil inventories. Further, appreciation in Indian Rupee capped the sharp rallies on MCX.

as at 4.30 pm 7 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5801.30 19222.05 12037.25 2018.63 15965.00

5878.00 19465.52 12069.60 2018.63 16020.20

5801.30 19212.92 11946.01 1998.29 15918.75

5863.30 19413.54 11968.08 2004.40 15918.75

0.77 0.84 0.30 -0.81 0.42

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 7 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.62 1.2965 54.715

82.62 1.3044 54.90

82.34 1.2964 54.51

82.485 1.302 54.51

-0.03 0.42 -0.53

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 7 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1583.09 1580.00 29644.00 29.02 28.23 55105 90.42 111.08 4940 7727.00 427.55 1984.00 108.20 2191 119.90 16570 912.40 1959.00 106.45

1585.39 1583.50 29678.0 29.06 28.955 55225 90.83 111.31 4971 7742.00 427.60 1988.00 108.20 2192 119.90 16617 912.50 1971.00 106.50

1578.59 1579.90 29492.0 28.85 28.955 54909 90.22 110.69 4940 7700.00 425.60 1974.00 107.30 2180 118.90 16550 905.50 1949.75 106.00

1581.15 1579.90 29593.00 28.88 28.955 54968 90.69 110.93 4940 7711.50 427.25 1979.50 108.25 2185 120.00 16555 911.00 1961.00 106.25

-0.14 0.34 -0.24 -0.45 0.68 -0.13 0.29 -0.12 0.40 0.07 -0.42 -0.13 -0.74 -0.09 -0.71 0.03 -0.42 0.26 -0.54

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | March 7, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook For the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments. Additionally, decline in German Factory orders coupled with forecast of negative economic data from US will also add downside pressure on prices. However, weakness in DX ,expectations that major central banks will maintain the stimulus measures to spur growth along with decline in borrowing cost for Spain and France may cushion sharp downfall in prices. Technical Outook for evening session 7 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29395 1572 54487 28.60 5998 4898 89.5 187.5 7612 421.5 106.3 117.8 104.9 896 Support 1 29473 1578 54773 28.82 6041 4932 90.1 189.9 7660 423.8 106.9 118.4 105.6 903 CMP 29526 1581.3 54918 28.9 6057 4960 90.65 190.5 7711 425.6 107.4 119.1 105.8 906.5 Resistance1 29630 1590 55280 29.21 6094 4988 91.2 193.5 7780 428 108.6 120 106.5 912.7 Resistance 2 29710 1596 55540 29.41 6137 5033 92 195.9 7860 429.7 109.55 121.4 107.1 917

Important Events for Today

Indicator Beige Book Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Press Conference Spanish 10-y Bond Auction French 10-y Bond Auction German Factory Orders m/m Asset Purchase Facility Official Bank Rate MPC Rate Statement Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q FOMC Member Powell Speaks Country US Japan Japan Japan Europe Europe Europe UK UK UK Europe Europe US US US US Time (IST) 12.30 am 8:54am 8:54am 1:02pm 3:15pm 3:29pm 4:30pm 5:30pm 5:30pm Tentative 6:15pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 11:45pm Actual <0.10% 4.92/2.3 2.10/2.2 -1.9% Forecast <0.10% 0.6% 375B 0.5% 0.75% -42.8B 354K -1.6% Previous <0.10% 5.20/1.6 2.30/3.1 0.8% 375B 0.5% 0.75% -38.5B 344K -2.0% Impact Medium High High High High Medium Medium High High High High High High High Medium Medium