133460618.xlsx.

ms_office

Crystal Ball Report - Full Simulation started on 3/9/2013 at 18:10:11 Simulation stopped on 3/9/2013 at 18:10:12 Run preferences: Number of trials run Extreme speed Monte Carlo Random seed Precision control on Confidence level Run statistics: Total running time (sec) Trials/second (average) Random numbers per sec Crystal Ball data: Assumptions Correlations Correlated groups Decision variables Forecasts

1,000

95.00%

0.58 1,729 12,105

7 0 0 0 2

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Libro1 (version 2).xlsb]Hoja1 Forecast: Utilidad Summary: Entire range is from (26.33) to 76,163.24 Base case is 61,313.56 After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 185.50 Cell: C12

Statistics: Trials Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis Coeff. of Variability Minimum Maximum Range Width Mean Std. Error

Forecast values 1,000 2,284.72 712.84 --5,865.91 34,408,900.14 7.03 65.69 2.57 (26.33) 76,163.24 76,189.57 185.50

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Forecast: Utilidad (cont'd) Percentiles: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Forecast values (26.33) 63.65 173.96 301.27 455.01 710.59 1,055.95 1,565.12 2,438.53 5,028.09 76,163.24

Cell: C12

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Forecast: VAN Summary: Entire range is from ($157.82) to $421,341.21 Base case is $393,489.41 After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $1,030.18

Cell: C15

Statistics: Trials Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis Coeff. of Variability Minimum Maximum Range Width Mean Std. Error

Forecast values 1,000 $13,074.52 $4,017.16 --$32,577.10 ############### 6.55 57.81 2.49 ($157.82) $421,341.21 $421,499.03 $1,030.18

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Forecast: VAN (cont'd) Percentiles: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% End of Forecasts Forecast values ($157.82) $377.00 $961.27 $1,671.23 $2,506.01 $4,016.86 $6,119.48 $9,113.27 $13,768.25 $28,199.21 $421,341.21

Cell: C15

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Assumptions

Worksheet: [Libro1 (version 2).xlsb]Hoja1 Assumption: C13 Normal distribution with parameters: Mean Std. Dev. Cell: C13

1,000.00 120.00

Assumption: Cfijo Triangular distribution with parameters: Minimum Likeliest Maximum

Cell: C11

20.00 30.00 40.00

Assumption: Constante Normal distribution with parameters: Mean Std. Dev.

Cell: C5

1.20 0.50

Assumption: Elas_ing Normal distribution with parameters: Mean Std. Dev.

Cell: C7

0.90 0.20

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Assumption: Elas_p Normal distribution with parameters: Mean Std. Dev.

Cell: C6

(0.60) 0.20

Assumption: Precio Normal distribution with parameters: Mean Std. Dev.

Cell: C8

857.27 35.88

Assumption: TASADESC Uniform distribution with parameters: Minimum Maximum

Cell: C16

6% 18%

End of Assumptions

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Sensitivity Charts

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End of Sensitivity Charts

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Scatter Charts

Scatter Chart: Scatter Chart 1

End of Scatter Charts

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