Weekly Commodity tips

Commodity Weekly Report for 11/Mar./2013 16/Mar./2013 Gold falls as strong U.S. jobs figures hint at recovery Gold fell 1 percent in earlier trade, stocks markets rose and the dollar leapt after data showed U.S. employers added 236,000 jobs last month, well above an expected 160,000, pushing the unemployment rate to a four year-low. If the unemployment rate does come down and register a figure below the current estimate of 7.9%, there are apprehensions that the Fed may take it as a signal to phase out the QE measures. This can sap the liquidity and thereby snap the potential bull runs in commodities. Upbeat U.S. data has fuelled appetite for riskier assets such as stocks at golds expense and raised speculation the Fed may consider reining in its ultra-loose monetary policy. That has supported golds recent rally, by pressuring long-term interest rates and stoking inflation concerns. The fact that the strongest economic data in a while failed to trigger a break below the recent low (has given) the market a bit of confidence, so we are seeing a classic Friday short covering exercise,. But the pace of gains is still below the roughly 250,000 jobs per month that economists say is needed to significantly reduce unemployment, as the Federal Reserve hopes to achieve with its very accommodative policy. China Crude Oil import down 9% y/y to 5.43 mb/d in Feb 2013. Crude oil imports of china pulled back 17% m/m, to 5.43 mb/d (down 9% y/y), and imports in the first two months of the year averaged 5.7 mb/d, down 1% from last years highs, when China was filling the SPR, according to Barclays report. Refiners may also be taking a breather from months of strong imports ahead of the spring maintenance season. Product imports of the country were flat at 890 kb/d, while exports also held at 570 kb/d, keeping net imports steady at 280 kb/d. Chinese refiners likely continued to export gasoline and diesel as the fuel market remained well supplied during the holiday season, but product stocks are now back at seasonal levels. Meanwhile, Chinas total exports rose by 21.8 percent year-on-year in February exceeding economists forecasts and imports of the country declined more than expected during the month, falling 15.2 percent, according to General Administration of Customs data. It had been expected that the exports will rise by 8.1 percent and imports will fall by 8.5 percent. Slow demand from China; MCX Copper bearish. Slow demand from Chinese manufacturing industries has impacted Base metal prices. Chinas latest property market curbs have stirred heated discussion, with experts close to policymakers saying China will try to control the side effects of the measures. Copper prices at LME markets declined to $7699 levels yesterday. U.S jobless claims release is likely to be announced in later session may impact the metal prices. Weakness in Dollar Index may reflect current prices.

Decline in LME markets and weak dollar index has impacted prices. U.S and Euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) is likely to be announced in later session may pressurize the base metal pack. Outlook on U.S unemployment rate and LME markets may reflect Copper prices. Selling pressure and moderate volumes may impact the markets in later session MCX GOLD Technical Trend MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and found strong support of 29100 but unable to sustain around this level. Now if it able to break this support then next support is seen around 28750. On higher side 29780 will act as resistance for it, only above this strength may be seen towards the next resistance of 30150. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 29100 for the targets of 28750-28500 with stop loss of 29575. MCX SILVER Technical Trend MCX SILVER last week showed choppy movement and found previous support of 53800. Now on lower side if it is able to break 53800 then only selling pressure drag it towards the next support level of 52700. On higher side 55550 will act as strong resistance for it above this it may test next resistance i.e. 56700. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 56100 for the target of 57500, with stop loss of 54500. MCX CRUDEOIL Technical Trend Crude oil last week followed sideways movements and found support of 50% retracement i.e. around 4970 and move in the range of 5010-4925 while closing above 4970 indicates buying streangth seen above 5010. On lower side 4925 will act as strong support for it. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5050 for the target of 5130-5170 with stop loss of 4925. MCX COPPER Technical Trend

MCX Copper still moved in consolidation range near its strong support i.e. 423.95. Now if it breaks this strong support with high volume then it may drag towards next support level i.e. 418. On higher side if it sustain above 428.50 then it may face next resistance around 434. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell below 423.95, with stop loss of 434 for the targets of 418-414. For more information regarding free equity tips, stock tips, and commodity tips, Intraday tips please visit - http://www.trifidresearch.com