Thailand Automotive Industry Moving Ahead with AEC : Opportunities and Challenges

By Dr. Patima Jeerapaet President of Thailand Automotive Institute

I. Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries

ASEAN Motor vehicle production and sales
(thousand) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
1,500 1,000 500 0 1,782 1,887 2,697 2,216

3,102 2,124
2,516

Production 2,995

2,022

2,127

Sales 2,596

1,913

ASEAN Motorcycle production and sales

thousand
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 7,485 7,395 9,232 10,701

Production 11,310

8,589 8,496

10,481

9,074 7,445
7,322

Sales 11,285

Note: ASEAN countries exclude CLMV

Source: ASEAN Automotive Federation (AAF)

I. Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries (cont.)

The automotive hub of ASEAN
Thailand Population : 67 Million Production 2011 : 1,457,795 Units Sales 2011 : 796,123 Units Product Champion : 1-ton Pick up Vietnam Population : 87 Million Production 2011 : 100,465 Units Sales 2011 : 109,660 Units Product Champion : Motorcycle Philippines Population : 92 Million Production 2011 : 64,906 Units Sales 2011 : 141,616 Units

ASEAN Key Indicators Population 2011 : 608.8 million GDP 2011 : 2,153 Billion (US$) GDP 2011 Growth rate : 4.4% Car Production 2011 : 2.99 million units Car Total Sales 2011 : 2.59 million units

Malaysia Population : 28 Million Production 2011 : 533,515 Units Sales 2011 : 600,123 Units Product Champion : Passenger Car Indonesia Population : 240 Million Production 2011 : 837,948 Units Sales 2011 : 894,164 Units Product Champion : SUV and MPV, Big Truck

I. Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries (cont.)

ASEAN Automotive Matrix
Increasing capacity
High domestic demand

Increasing demand

Low Domestic demand No Production Base Strong Production Base

II. Opportunities for Thailand Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry

World Total Production 2011 = 80 million

World Total Production 2011 = 20 million

Source : The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturer (OICA)

II. Opportunities for Thailand (cont.) Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry
Thailand motor vehicle production, domestic sales and export
Unit: 1,000
2,400

Domestic
2,000

Export

Production

2,200 e

1,645

1,600
1,301 1,125 960 751
556 14

1,392 896 999

1,458

1,194

1,200

736 457

441 332

539

690

776
536

800
359 42 349 321 143 68 140 126 218 406 153 262 455

564 181 175 297 409

235 703 682 800 549 796 606

400
562

533

628

631

614

12 Jan-June

Note: Inculde passenger car, pick up 1 ton, van, bus and truck. Excluding motorcycle

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)

II. Opportunities for Thailand (cont.) Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry
Thailand motorcycle production, domestic sales and export
Unit: 1,000 3,500 3,000 2,500
1,962 2,378 831 605

Domestic

Export

Production
2,867

2,359 148
2,080 107 1,924

2,500 e
2,026 1,635 115 172 156 2,045 221

2,000
1,438

1,653
585 1,081

102

150

1,500
178 1,126
846

1,210

1,000 500 0
1,236

137 600 245

911

267
214

272 1,767
1,328

2,027

2,112

2,055
1,599

1,703

1,846 1,535

2,007 1,106

527

604

784

907

12 Jan-June

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)

II. Opportunities for Thailand (cont.) Thailand Motor vehicle production forecast
Total sales (thousand) 6,000 63 61 47 52 45 44 41 36 34
32

Ratio (%) 30 5,438 5,088 4,502 3,753 4,737

29

100 90 80 70 60
50

5,668

5,000

4,000

3,000

3,382 2,900

40 30 20 10

2,000 1,696
1,000 1,144

2,290

37

415

39

53

48 2012f

55 2015f

56 2020f

59 2025f

64 2030f

66 2035f

68 2040f

70 2045f

71

2050f

Export share

Domestic sales share

Total

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)

10

II. Opportunities for Thailand (cont.) Competitiveness among big 3 ASEAN

Source: Boston consulting group

11

II. Opportunities for Thailand (cont.) Emission Standard

Country THAILAND INDONESIA Gasoline MALAYSIA Diesel PHILIPPINES VIETNAM Gasoline
SINGAPORE

2009 Euro3 Euro2 Euro2 Euro1

2010

2011

2012 Euro4

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Euro 4 (Tentative) Euro 3 (Tentative) Euro 4 (Tentative) Euro 2 (Tentative) Euro2 Euro 4 (Tentative)

Euro2 Euro2 Euro4

Euro4 (Under Study) Euro 4 (Tentative) Euro 5 (Tentative)

Diesel

12

III. Challenges for Thailand Human resource development

800,000 700,000
41,900

600,000
500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 483,000 501,200
18,20 0 43,300

41,150 41,100

544,500

585,600

627,100

669,000

No. of Labours

Incresing Labours

13

III. Challenges for Thailand (cont.)

Green automotive
Environmentally friendly vehicles
Alternative fuel vehicle usage program (Ethanol, Bio-diesel, CNG, Hybrid Vehicle, PHEV, EV, Hydrogen) Eco label (Carbon footprint, CO2, etc) Green manufacturing practices Recycling

Improved safety
UN/ECE Regulations Safety Ranking publishing program ITS Intelligent Transportation System

14

IV. Become the Automotive Hub for the AEC in 2015

Green vehicle program

Alternative fuel, CNG, bio-diesel, ethanol, hybrid

Light weight vehicles GPS control

Location and speed of fleets

Safety Issues
UN/ECE standards: roll over, seat anchorages, etc.

15

Thank you
Thailand Automotive Institute www.thaiauto.or.th
16