Climate Presentation

Water Resources Of Pakistan Present Position

Indus River System annual average inflows are 137.87 MAF [Long Term Average (1922 2009)] Large variability in annual water inflows, varied between 98.54 MAF and 218.1 MAF About 70 - 80% of Indus River System inflows originating from melting of snow and glaciers With increase in Population, Pakistan is becoming a water stressed country. From 5650m/cap water available in 1951 to about 1000 m/ cap in 2010.
2

Climate Change Studies in WAPDA

Eminent Professor from Stanford University Dr. Wescoat in Collaboration with WAPDA studied Impact on the flows of River Indus due to Climate Change 1991. UBC Watershed Model was used to generate future flow scenarios This study using GISS and GFDL Models predicted 3.2C and 4.7C increase in temperature respectively shown change in total annual inflows by 11% - 16% ..
( Dr. J. Wescoat, 1991)

CHANGES IN TOTAL RIVER INFLOWS UNDER VARIOUS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (MAF)
6

Changes in River Flow s (MAF)

0 Jan -2 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-4

-6

-8 Months

+ 2C + No CHGP

+2C -20% P

+2C +20%P

GISS +30%P

GFDL +20%P

Climate Change Impacts on Weather Wet Season rainfall could increase by 5% 50% by year 2070, with an associated doubling in the frequency of high intensity rainfall events. (CSIRO study)

Climate Change Projections for Pakistan Based on IPCC Scenario A2 Ensemble of 6 GCMs

2020s
Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

2050s

2080s

Temperature Change T(C) 1.41 0.13 1.04 0.11 3.09 0.29 2.47 0.14 5.32 0.53 4.33 0.28

Precipitation Change P(%)

Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

5.15 1.87 18.83 4.76

6.20 3.87 20.24 10.15

6.06 6.15 28.30 11.73

Source: Climatology Section in GCISC

Climate Change over Pakistan Past & Future

During last century , average annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.6C Temperature increased over Northern Pakistan was higher than over Southern Pakistan (0.8C versus 0.5C) It is predicted that average temperature over Pakistan will increase in the range of 1.3 1.5 C by 2020, 2.5 2.8 C by 2050 and 3.9 4.4 C by 2080 (GCISC , GCM ensemble results)

Climate Change over Pakistan Past & Future

Precipitation is projected to increase slightly in summer and decrease in winter with no significant change in annual precipitation It is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts

Major Climate Change related Concerns Increased variability of monsoons Uncertainty about the fate of Upper Indus Basin glaciers and future water availability from them Increased risks of Flood and Droughts Severe water and heat stressed conditions in arid and semi arid regions, leading to reduced agriculture productivity and power generation

Major Climate Change related Concerns Increased upstream intrusion of saline water in Indus Delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and breeding ground for fish Threat to coastal areas, including the city of Karachi, due to sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures

Upper Indus Basin Glaciers

11

Conflicting Reports on HKH Glacier Status

Although the glaciers all over the world are found to be receding over the past century, those in the HKH region are reported to be receding faster than in any other part of the world and fears have been expressed that if the present rate of recession continues, the HKH glaciers might disappear by 2035 (Rees and Collins 2004, WWF 2005, IPCC 2007) IPCC has recently retracted its statement about the rate of recession and date of disappearance of Himalaya glaciers (IPCC 2010) Batura glacier is retreating significantly in recent years (Shroder and Bishop 1999) Some of the Karakoram glaciers are surging rather than receding (Hewitt 2005)

There is some uncertainty about the temporal behaviour of Karakoram glaciers which have not been studied in detail because of their difficult terrain and steep slopes
12

World Bank Report 2005

13

Tarbela Average Decadal Flows

65 64 63 62 Inflow Volumes (maf)
61.03 62.98 63.85

Avg = 61.482 maf

61 60 59
58.37 58.13

58 57 56 55 1961-1969 1969-1979 1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2009

15

Upper Indus Basin Study Area

RN E ST E W

KO A R KA

MS A R

16

Climate Change Studies in WAPDA

Recently in 2008 a study focusing on the Upper Indus Basin 40 Years river flows trend was carried out. Results and conclusions from the studies are: Significant rising summer flows trend from the Karakoram eastern tributaries indicate warmer summers and glaciers recession in this region. Significant falling summer flows trend from the Karakoram western tributaries indicate cooling summers and stable or growing glaciers in this region.

Inflows Volume (MAF)

40 61-62 63-64 65-66 67-68 69-70 71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 93-94 95-96 97-98 99-2000 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 y = -0.0531x + 62.086 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

River Indus at Tarbela - Annual Flows Trend

River Indus at Kachura Eastern Karakorams

July (Significant Rising Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level= 98%)
12 11 Flow V olum e (m a f) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
19

y = 0.0628x + 6.1059

Years

River Indus at Kachura Eastern Karakoram

August ( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 97.4% Sig. Level )
F lo w V o lu m e (m illio n a c re fe e t)
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
20

y = 0.0443x + 6.0162

Period (years)

River Gilgit at Alam Bridge Western Karakoram

July ( Moderate Falling Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level = 77% )
7.0 F l o w V o l u m e (m a f) 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
21

y = -0.0202x + 4.9132

Years

River Gilgit at Alam Bridge Western Karakoram

August ( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 98.5% Sig. Level)
6.0

y = -0.039x + 4.7412

F lo w V o lu m e ( m a f )

5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Period (years)

River Hunza at Dainyour Western Karakorams

July (Significant Falling Trend; Mann - Kendall Sig. Level = 98%)
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988

y = -0.0361x + 3.1346

F l o w V o l u m e (m a f)

1990

1993

1995

Years

23

1997

River Hunza at Dainyour Western Karakoram

August ( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 99.1% Sig. Level)
F lo w V o lu m e (m iilio n a c r e fe e t) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1993 1995 1997

y = -0.0419x + 3.1628

Period (years)

River Indus at Partab Bridge - July (1962 - 2005) Man - Kendall Significance Level = 74%
y = 0.0244x + 11.715 18 17 16 15

F lo w s (m a f)

14 13 12 11 10 9 8 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Indus at Partab Bridge

August ( Significant Trend at Mann - Kendall 75.8% Sig. Leve)
16.0 15.0

y = -0.0155x + 11.809

F lo w Vo lu me (maf)

14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Period (years)

Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days) of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 2009
UIB Stations Khunjerab Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ziarat Naltar Yasin Ushkore

Z R Z R

Z R Z R

R R R R

F N R R

R R R R

R R R R

F F F N

F F F F

F F F F

F N R N

R N R R

Z R Z F

Hushey

Rama Rattu Deosai

Z R Z

Z R Z

R R Z

F N F

R R R

R R R

F F F

F F F

F F F

F N R

N F Z

Z R Z

Burzil

R = Rising Trend ;

F = Falling Trend ;

N = No Trend;

Z = Zero Degree Days

Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Burzil (4000 masl)

(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep.

750

Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl = 91%) y = -5.2653x + 648.73

700

650

Degree Days

600

550

500

450 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Naltar (2800 masl)
(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl. = 91%) 1550 y = -6.2368x + 1469 1500

1450

Degree Days

1400

1350

1300

1250

1200 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Trend of Available Glacier Melt Energy at DCP Station Khunjerab (4710 masl)
(Total Degree Days during Jul; Aug; Sep. Mann-Kendal Sig. Lvl = 95%) 500

y = -6.7162x + 432.12 450

Degree Days

400

350

300

250 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WAPDA Future Plans

Establishment of Glacier Monitoring Research Centre Study the Climate Change impacts on UIB Cryoshpere and Forecast Long-Term water availability from Upper Indus Basin Monitor Upper Indus Basin Glaciers Conduct Mass-Balance studies for five selected glaciers in four years and Carryout Mapping and Monitoring of more than 50 UIB glacier snouts Training of its staff in using modern concepts, techniques and tools for water resources planning and management

Other Concerns
WAPDA has planned its major Reservoirs and Hydropower Projects in Upper Indus Basin. For their safety and optimum operation following measures are required: Net work to monitor Floods from rains Network for monitoring and management of GLOFs Set up to monitor and manage land slides Sedimentation estimation and management Program

Thanks