Appendix-B1 - RSL Strand Literature Review Report

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods
Appendix B1: A summary of State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods / models

Report 2003-026-C-03
The research described in this report was carried out by Project Leader Team members A/Prof. Jay Yang (QUT) Prof. Arun Kumar (QUT) A/Prof. Sujeeva Setunge and Srikanth Venkatesan (RMIT) A/Prof. Graham Miller and Dr. Mary Hardie, Dr. Shahed Khan (UWS) Mr. Selwyn Clark (QDPW) Mr. Bruce Carlyle (John Holland) Mr. Stuart Grierson (QDPW)
Research Program C: Delivery and Management of Built Assets Project 2003-026-C Decision Support Tools for Concrete Infrastructure rehabilitation
Content Summary
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................. 6 1

1.1 1.2
OVERVIEW .............................................................................................. 7
Introduction ................................................................................................... 7 Background ................................................................................................... 8
2
2.1
PREDICTION OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE....................................... 10

Existing Models ........................................................................................... 10
2.2 EPIQR method (Energy Performance and Indoor environmental Quality Retrofit) ..................................................................................................................... 11
2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 Modelling building deterioration .................................................................... 12 Modelling Energy consumptions.................................................................... 16 Modelling Indoor Environmental Quality ....................................................... 17
2.3 MEDIC method (Method d Evaluation de scnearious de Degradation probables dInvessissements Correspondants) ........................................................ 18 2.4 Deterministic Method of diagnosing building degradation and modelling refurb costs ............................................................................................................. 21
2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.4.4 Classification of works: ................................................................................... 22 Type of data: ..................................................................................................... 23 Source of data: ................................................................................................. 23 Form of data:..................................................................................................... 23
2.5
2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 2.5.4 2.5.5
Elaboration of retrofit scenarios ................................................................ 24

The first intuitive scenario............................................................................... 24 Refining the scenario....................................................................................... 25 Checking linked actions .................................................................................. 25 Synthetic graphs .............................................................................................. 25 A constructivist and interactive approach .................................................... 27
2.5.6 Multicriteria approach to office building retrofit strategies......................... 27 2.5.6.1 Multicriteria assessment methodology ..................................................... 27 2.5.6.2 Case study results ....................................................................................... 28 2.5.7 Additional multi criterion studies ................................................................... 28
2.6
Normal Distribution Model or ISO factorial model ................................... 28 2
2.6.1
Methodology ..................................................................................................... 28
2.6.2 The ISO factorial model ................................................................................... 29 2.6.2.1 Evaluation of the ISO model ....................................................................... 30 2.6.2.2 Further development of factor methods.................................................... 32 2.6.3 2.6.4 The Markov model............................................................................................ 33 Other residual service life models.................................................................. 33
3 EVALUATION OF THE FUNCTIONAL OBSOLESCENCE OF BUILDINGS................................................................................................... 35

3.1
3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 3.1.5
Obsolescence Criteria ................................................................................ 35

User needs ........................................................................................................ 36 Flexibility ........................................................................................................... 36 Divisibility.......................................................................................................... 36 Maintainability .................................................................................................. 36 Compliance with regulations .......................................................................... 36
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
Breakdown of Building ............................................................................... 37 Application of Criteria ................................................................................. 38 Diagnosis codes and descriptions ............................................................ 39 Upgrading Works......................................................................................... 40 Review of the model.................................................................................... 41
4 INFLUENCE OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE MODELS ON LIFE CYCLE COSTS OF A BUILDING .............................................................................. 41 5 6 REVIEW AND CLOSING REMARKS .................................................... 43 REFERENCES....................................................................................... 44
List of Tables
Table 2-1: Building Elements and corresponding Types (European Residential Building Audits Database, ERBAD.) ..16 Table 2-2: Extract from the list of typical building refurbishment work22 Table 3-1: Representative section of the building objects and obsolescence criteria matrix 39
List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Relationship between different types of service life prediction methods..... 10 Figure 2-2: Macro Elements of a building .12
Figure 2-3: Example of a user interface for `Heating Energy balance ....17 Figure 2-4: Probability curves for deterioration codes of the elements.19
Figure 2-5: Cumulative probabilities of deterioration codes...20
Figure 2-6: Visualization for an element found in subspace of [0, B] ...20
Figure 2-7:Typical Degradation chart and cost charts based on retrofit scenarios...............26 Figure 2-8.Methodology for service life prediction of building components (From ISO 15686 Part 2 {ISO 2001) .29 Figure 2-9.Relationships to take into consideration in evaluation of the factor method ..31 Figure 2-10.Serice Life Model for elements lacking historic data..33 Figure 2-11.Typical deterioration trend of building element34 Figure 3-1: Functional obsolescence criteria37 Figure 3-2:Typical Screen dump of software TOBUS to describe the functional obsolescence evaluation process...40 Figure 4-1: Example of a cost breakdown tree.42 Figure 4-2: Probable development of the refurbishment costs for an 18-year-old cladding in code à according to MEDIC method ...42
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Successful management of the infrastructure facilities is an important issue even in well developed nations. Billions of dollars are spent in the annual maintenance of these assets. Maintenance costs of these assets over the whole life cycle usually require an evaluation of the remaining useful service life. This report summarises the state-of-the-art in the prediction of residual life of the building and its components. Methods (or models) for estimating residual service life are described in detail. Significance of residual service life models on life cycle costing has been described. The review shows that the methods are mostly conceptual and their application to real world problems is dependent on a number of issues. Significant forms of data and an understanding of the method to be applied is required during the decision making process. In this vein, this report investigates the suitability of these methods to aging public asset buildings in Australia.
1 OVERVIEW
1.1
Introduction
The term infrastructure encompasses the well known facilities like transport systems, bridges, water supply and any other facility that is required for the general successful functioning of the economies. The infrastructure of a nation thus supports the fabric of modern living, which is taken for granted until something fails or no longer provides the expected service, (IIMM, 2002). Any failure of the infrastructure facilities causes considerable difficulties to the governments, agencies as well as the population. In this report, issues related to the infrastructure buildings have been addressed. Most of the building assets in Australia have been built progressively over the past 100 odd years. Buildings deteriorate with age and more importantly may not serve the purpose of original intent. It is thus apparent that buildings might need refurbishment or renovation at some point in time. This is very similar to the recent trends experienced in the European countries. For instance, most of 1.8 million flats in some parts of European Union built some 30 odd years, were in need of great refurbishment since they were built using methods that do not meet todays requirements in terms of the energy consumptions, indoor air quality and environmental standards. (Investimmo, 2001). There are higher expectations on living standards as a result of recent technological advancements. Therefore, the challenge is to properly retrofit buildings in a manner that will result in minimum energy requirements; reduce pollution and waste generation; improve indoor air quality, lighting and standards of living all at an affordable cost, over the entire life of the building. Therefore, new design guidelines, standards and management practices need to be developed for sustainable planning, design, operation, maintenance, refurbishment, rehabilitation, modernisation, reuse and recycling of the buildings in an optimised way addressing the issues of all relevant parties to result in a cost effective and manageable solution. Asset management is a process of delivering the required level of service in a most cost effective way through the creation, acquisition, maintenance, operation, rehabilitation and disposal of assets to assist present and future customers. The key elements of infrastructure asset management are: Life cycle approach Developing cost-effective management strategies for the long term Providing a defined level of service and monitoring performance Managing risks associated with asset failures Sustainable use of physical resources Continuos improvement in asset management practices A formal approach to the management of infrastructure assets is essential in order to provide services in a most cost-effective manner and to demonstrate this to the customers, investors and other stakeholders. (IIMM, 2002). In the context of retrofitting projects of buildings adopting a life-cycle approach, architects and engineers need to consider different possible retrofit scenarios. The residual life prediction of a building is an essential component of these refurbishment strategies. This requires an understanding of residual life methodologies, relevant background and the issues that need further research that are discussed in this report.
1.2
Background
As noted in the previous section, European Union evidenced the need to retrofit or refurbish buildings, hotels and other assets. During the 1980s and 1990s building refurbishment attracted a lot of attention and had gained an increasing importance in the construction sector. It was observed that the social and functional life of a commercial building was much shorter than its physical life. Furthermore, refurbishment costs were much lesser (about half to one-third) in comparison with demolition and reconstruction. (Balaras, et.al, 2002). Clearly, this involves the multidisciplinary influence encompassing a time scale that often adds to the complexity of the problem. Sustained research undertaken has led to many new generation methodologies and softwares. The European research project INVESTIMMO requires special mention in this connection. The goal of the INVESTIMMO European project is to develop a computer-based multimedia software giving assistance to decision makers to deliver strategic real estate plans tailored to suit either the companys or individuals needs and whether simple or complex in nature (Investimmo web site, Newsletter 1, September 2003) It is clear from the above statement that the project relates to the housing sector. Investment budgets for these types are limited and the general trend is to install those measures, which offer the quickest payback period. INVESTIMMO advises that the planning should be made on a long term basis, based on the following criteria: Evaluation of the deterioration process of the building Housing market Tenants expectations Upgrading potential of the building associated with aesthetic, historic values Environmental impacts Economic factors (like rental income, operating expenses etc.,) Based on the above criteria, the project work was delineated into 8 work packages (WP), each assigned with a single task. In the first of the work packages namely the WP 1, a series of buildings were proposed to be surveyed for data collection. In WP2, a degradation model of all the building elements associated with physical, technical, social, cultural, and management issues were proposed. WP 3 to WP 6 corresponds to the works listed in the above criteria (Housing market, Tenants expectations, financial indicators etc.,) WP 7 merges all of the above. WP8 relates to the development of the software. Since the 1980s, many methods have been developed in France and later on in Switzerland to evaluate the deteriorated state of existing apartment buildings. The EPIQR European project (JOR3-CT96-0044) developed a decision-making tool for residential building refurbishment. The tool assists the user to perform a systematic diagnosis covering the building deterioration state, the energy saving and indoor environment quality improvement potential. It calculates the refurbishment costs using a building audit within half a day. TOBUS (JOR3-CT98-0235) is a recently completed European project that shares similar principles to that of EPIQR but it is developed for office buildings. It has more in-depth building modelling and integrates other refurbishment aspects like functional obsolescence of technical installations and services. SUREURO (EVK4-CT99-20002) is an on-going project in the framework of the City of Tomorrow European programme. Its goal is to develop decision making tools that integrate environmental issues in the decision making process and bring together all the concerned social representatives (European Commission Growth Program http:// investimmo.cstb.fr). 8
The existing decision-making tools answer the question what to improve in a particular building, how to do it in a sustainable manner (SUREURO) and how much it costs (EPIQR, TOBUS). INVESTIMMO will provide answers to critical questions like where and when to invest in a large building stock. In other words, a manager or an owner of a large number of residential buildings will be able to decide which of his buildings need improvement, which of them can wait and for how long, and which of them can be sold or demolished. One gap identified in all these approaches is the inability to integrate the structural strengthening techniques and the residual life into decision making for building refurbishment. A new CRC-CI project aims to overcome the above deficiencies by developing a new tool that can integrate the important issues that assists in the decision making process. Consequently, a review of the existing methodologies in modeling residual life of buildings is warranted. The next section of this report presents the development and principles of some of the modeling methodologies.
2 PREDICTION OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE

As noted earlier, residual life of buildings is dependent upon a number of factors that encompass a multidisciplinary approach. The complexity of the problem involving degradation and costs projected over a reasonable length of time clearly drives the models towards a probabilistic approach rather than a deterministic approach. However, it is important to note that certain criteria for assessing the building performance are deterministic. For example, a typical building may consist of several components such as the structure, facades, internal finishes, floor coverings, services such as heating and cooling systems and many others. Since different levels of maintenance may be required for these items different sets of criteria might need to be used in the assessment process. This involves a deterministic approach. Estimating residual service can be considered as a three level approach as suggested by Hovde and Moser, (2004). (Figure 2-1).
Research methods Probabilistic
Engineering methods
Simple estimation methods - Deterministic
Figure 2-1: Relationship between different types of service life prediction methods
In order to understand residual service life models some definitions are required in the first place. ISO 15686 defines Service Life as the period of time after installation during which a building or its parts meets or exceeds the performance requirements and Residual Service Life (RSL) has been defined as the Remaining service life from the point of consideration. Adopting these definitions, an overview of some of the existing models has been presented in the next section.
2.1
Existing Models
Within the framework of INVESTIMMO project noted in the previous sections, a total of 349 buildings were studied across seven European countries. A total of 50 building audits were performed in France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland, 40 building audits were performed in Denmark, 54 building audits were performed in Poland and 55 building audits were performed in Hellas. The aim of the surveys was to collect data that govern the deterioration of buildings. The collected data is available in a 10
database called as European Residential Building Audits Database (ERBAD). A demo version of ERBAD can be accessed from the INVESTIMMO web page. However, the demo version displays only limited information. Details of the investigation and modelling are available thru the purchase of CDs. The building audits were performed with a methodology known as EPIQR (Energy Performance and Indoor environmental Quality Retrofit). EPIQR typically decomposes the building into a number of elements and types. Codes are used for ascertaining the level of deterioration. This methodology developed mainly for apartment buildings formed the backbone of other similar methodologies. Following similar principles TOBUS (Tool for selecting Office Building Upgrading Solutions) was developed for office buildings and XENIOS (an audit tool for hotel buildings) was developed for hotels.
Flourentzou et al. 2000, proposed a theoretical work describing the functions for the description of the development of each degradation state and the practical work done for the Swiss Federation Office for Economic Policy in the PI BAT program: Methode dEstimation de Bugents dInvestissement (MEBI) (Genre, 1995). MEBI bases its predictions on a large scale survey among 30 building experts. It is capable of calculating the residual life time of 50 building different elements and assessing the development of the refurbishment investment budget under the condition that no refurbishment works would be undertaken in the meantime. MEDIC method developed by Flourentzou, et.al, 2000, is a method for predicting residual service life and refurbishment investment budget. A very similar method has been proposed by Caccavelli and Genre, 2000. The building is divided into 50-60 elements but it uses more detailed condition rating scheme. The list of refurbishment work will then be developed based on the rating. Bamforth, 2003, proposed a probabilistic approach and an ISO factorial model to predict the residual life of a building component. The Markov model has been suggested in some literatures to model the residual service life of structures, although not explicitly on building deterioration. The aforementioned models somehow form the basis of the life cycle approach adopted in countries like United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, US, Japan and even New Zealand. Therefore these models have been described in the following sections of this report.
2.2
EPIQR method (Energy Performance and Indoor environmental Quality Retrofit)
This methodology has been developed to assist architects, engineers and other professionals during the refurbishment or retrofitting actions of apartment buildings. The method is based on complete concept formulation that starts with the commencement of the refurb project and provides a complete strategy to the user. Modelling building deterioration, assessment of energy consumption and indoor environmental air quality are considered in this process as explained below:
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2.2.1
Modelling building deterioration
In this methodology, the building is divided into 8 Macro elements (as shown in Figure 2-2) and then decomposed into discreet elements such as load bearing structure, windows, facades, roof etc., as shown in Table 2-1.
Figure 2-2: Macro Elements of a building (European Residential Building Audits Database, ERBAD.)
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13
14
15
Table 2-1: Building Elements and corresponding Types (European Residential Building Audits Database, ERBAD.)
For each building element in the above table, it is possible to have different types. During building audits, the user specifies the specific element/ types for a given building and determines their stage of deterioration, for example, excellent condition to very poor condition. This is done by selecting a deterioration code a, b,c, or d described by the method, that best fits the observed state of each element / type. Before making the selection, the user can review the corresponding text with a detailed description and several photos that illustrate the four possible deterioration stages. A total of about 500 photos and sketches support the user to select the appropriate deterioration code. The methodology has been developed into software EPIQR (Flourentzos, Droutsa, Wittsen, 2000) that contains for each building element a description of usual deterioration and corresponding refurbishment work including costs, potential upgrading work as well as related national standards and guidelines. Costs of each individual element from unit prices and quantities can be forecasted. The costs also include actions based on professional fees, incidental costs, value added tax etc., Despite the descriptions and photos available for classifying the degradation, it is still ambiguous for a fresh users to classify the degradation codes. This is due to the fact that the factors leading to the deterioration might not be the same, despite similarity in appearance. Nonetheless, the method offers the opportunity for classifying buildings into different types and elements. 2.2.2
Modelling Energy consumptions
In EPIQR methodology, assessment of the current level of energy consumptions in a building is noted from the energy bills (over five years) and it is compared with national standards and guidelines to work out the energy saving potential in space heating and cooling using calculation modules. A simplified energy balance equation (Wittchen and Aggerholm, 2000) is used to estimate the breakdown of the buildings heat losses and guides the user to retrofit measures with a higher energy saving potential. Energy conservation measures that can be assessed include actions like building envelope and thermal insulation, heating production system efficiency, infiltration losses, solar control, ceiling fans, solar collectors and energy efficient lighting. For the selected actions the results include the initial annual building cooling energy(kWh), the resulting annual energy conservation (kWh and %), typical costs expressed in national currency as well as the typical pay back period. (Balaras, et.al, 2002). A typical figure has been presented herein for inference. (Figure 2-3)
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Figure 2-3: Example of a user interface for `Heating Energy balance
The main output of the above figure is that with some combination of refurb strategies, the heat losses can be reduced to 200 kWh/sq.m from 314 kWh/sq.m. It has been noted that the database used in the calculations, allows even a non-expert user to input values into the module. However, the program needs to be used to provide a valid appreciation or criticism.
2.2.3
Modelling Indoor Environmental Quality
For Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) in the EPIQR, questionnaires are used to collect data on occupant complaints and after analysis different possible actions of improvement are selected. The software performs a statistical treatment of the questionnaire and relates complaints with refurbishment work and energy retrofit measures. A clear distinction has been made between the diagnosis and decisions to be made which do not affect the diagnosis. The software allows the user to build different scenarios and each scenario shows different levels of improvements to the office building and all have variations in the proposed budget cost. A radar graph summarises the building deterioration state and on the same graph the auditor can visualise the refurbishment actions comparing which actions promote greatest energy savings, improve indoor air etc., the program also calculates the scenario cost and the users can also modify this cost. The interface is programmed in Visual Basic and the data bases in MS access. As noted earlier the model does not consider the alterations in floor space and strengthening techniques. In addition, risk assessments can not be made in great
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detail. It can be noted that the above model is not completely a residual life cycle model but encompasses the principles. Consequently, the MEDIC method was developed to complement EPIQR.
2.3
MEDIC method (Method d Evaluation de scnearious de Degradation probables dInvessissements Correspondants)
As noted earlier, the decision to retrofit depends on the remaining useful life of a component. For example, the time to replace an element is when it reaches the very bad state of existence. Knowing that a particular element would survive in a reasonable condition for a certain length of time would allow the investor to plan for its refurb during next maintenance cycle. However, the authors suggest that the decision to retrofit windows could be based on the availability of form work for faade construction, even if this involves less energy saving potential. In such cases it is only the cost benefit analysis that would drive the decision. The MEDIC method is based on subdividing the building into 50 elements. Four codes {a, b, c, d}, are used to describe the deterioration state of an element. Code à represents an element in good condition, Code `b an element with minor deterioration, Code `c an element with more serious deterioration and Code `d an element that need replacement. The life of each element then summarised in four probability curves as shown in Figure 2-4. These curves show at anytime of elements life time the probability for the deterioration codes of a, b, c or d, respectively. The curves shown in Figure 2-4 are for illustrative purposes only. Consequently, users intending to employ MEDIC method need to develop these sorts of deterioration curves. It thus needs assimilated data or prior knowledge of the components. Confidence limits need to be ensured for the volume of database considered.
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1 P(a) 0.5 0 0 1 P(b) 0.5 0 0 1 P(c) 0.5 0 0 1 P(d) 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age of the building element [Years] Figure 2-4: Probability curves for deterioration codes of the elements The probability curves in Figure 2-4 can be also plotted as a cumulative curve shown in Figure 2-5. The sum of the deterioration properties for a certain element should be 1 at every instant. It can be seen that a 10-year old element is certain to correspond to code a, while 17 years old element with 50% probability is code b. a 40 years old element has a 35% probability of being code c and 15% probability of being code d. A 80 years old element is, with 99% probability, need replacement.
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1 Q 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Age of the building element [Years] Figure 2-5: Cumulative probabilities of deterioration codes
P(a) P(b) P(c) P(d)
The probability of a given building element to be classified into codes a, b, c, or d, can be read on the y-axis. The space Q = [0, 1] on the y-axis represents the universe of all probable building elements. The time of passage from one code to another can be read, when the exact position of an element is known on the y-axis of the graph. The value q = 0 represents a good building with a long life span for all transitions from code to code are taken place after a very long time. An element corresponding to the value of q = 1, in contrast represents the worst case. The space Q = [0, 1] can be called the Quality Space. In practice, it is impossible to determine the position of specific element exactly in the space Q, but it is possible to define or assess a region in which it is likely to be found. An element of poor quality or an element exposed to rough weather conditions could be placed in space of [0.5, 1.0] while an element of good quality can be placed in space of [0, 0.5].
1 Q B
P(a) P(b) P(c) P(d)
0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Age of the building element [Years]
Figure 2-6: Visualization for an element found in subspace of [0, B] Figure 2-6 shows effect of limiting the quality space from [0, 1] to [0, B]. The interval of probable transition from code a to code b is then from 6th to 20th year, an interval of 14 years. Knowing that the quality space of [0, B] restrains the time of transition to the interval from the 12th to the 20th, which is an interval of 8 yeas. The new probable period of transition from b to c is from the 24th to the 43rd year and the new probable period of transition from c to d is from the 45th to 80th yeas. As it appears, the knowledge of the quality space considerably restrains depression on the probable residual service life. The posteriors probability of having code a, b, c or, d for the years that follows diagnosis may be determined after considering the present state and the quality subspace of an element. The Monte-Carlo procedure may then be used to calculate
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the cost for the resulting code combination using number of random draws on the probability curves for each of the 50 elements. The probability distribution of the global refurbishment cost can be then drawn. The method is good in concepts, but the real time application needs the probability curves of deterioration of the concerned element and also the knowledge of restraining the quality space. Quality as such is a comparative term and this could vary for different elements. Therefore the method can be tested initially for less complex buildings and then can be applied for more complex buildings or elements.
2.4
Deterministic Method of diagnosing building degradation and modelling refurb costs
The previous section had highlighted the necessity of developing a building database on degradation of elements. It is important to note that buildings vary on type, size, site conditions and on many other factors that have a consequential influence upon the construction costs. It thus becomes necessary to adopt a consistent procedure in developing the `costs database. In the initial stages of cost estimation this may not be necessary, but might be required in the subsequent stages. In order to make the cost database consistent amongst the European countries contributing to the EPIQR project, a methodology was developed by Caccavelli and Genre, (2000) and the same has been presented below. To make national refurbishment work databases consistent, the following basic guidelines were provided to the EPIQR project participants. Each refurbishment work is deemed to be common practice within the scope of usual refurbishment projects. Refurbishment works must be consistent on the one hand with the state of degradation of the building and, on the other hand, with the EPIQR software structure. Therefore, when applicable, a list of work has to be produced, per element, type and code. This list is empty when there is no scheduled work other than maintenance work i.e., outside the scope of application of the EPIQR method. Refurbishment works have been selected as being appropriate for low to medium housing. Therefore, unnecessarily high cost actions have been left off the list There is no limit concerning the description of the works. However, it is of importance to bear in mind that the EPIQR tool applies at an early stage in the refurbishment process. Therefore, a brief and globalised description of refurbishment work is more adequate. When an installation or piece of equipment is too old or is insufficient (for instance, not enough electric sockets), repairs will be either on the basis of current standards or using the best practices (three electric sockets per room, connection to ground, installation of a differential circuit breaker)
Table 2-2 shows a sample of the list of a typical building refurbishment work for element 48 (ventilation) type 3 (mechanical ventilation). Note that this example belongs to the EPIQR category and represents the European conditions.
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Table 2-2: Extract from the list of typical building refurbishment work
Degradation code
a (good state) b (slight degradation) b b c (medium degradation) c c c c d (poor state) d d d d d d d
Work code
48-3-a-1 48-3-b-1 48-3-b-2 48-3-b-3 48-3-c-1 48-3-c-2 48-3-c-3 48-3-c-4 48-3-c-5 48-3-d-1 48-3-d-2 48-3-d-3 48-3-d-4 48-3-d-5 48-3-d-6 48-3-d-7 48-3-d-8
Work description
Complete dismantling and installation of new air inlets Joining using silicone sealant Air balancing Complete dismantling and installation of new air inlets Jointing using silicone sealant Partial dismantling and installation of new exhaust vents Dismantling extract fan unit and installation of new one Air balancing Complete dismantling and installation of new air inlets Electrical connection to rooftop fan unit Making good extract fan foundation block, including all roof waterproofing constrains Dismantling extract fan unit and installation of new one Cleaning duct network Complete dismantling and installation of new exhaust vents Air balancing Joining using silicone sealant
2.4.1
Classification of works:
The methodology recommends classifying the works based on the different trades involved in the building such as structural work, insulation, faade renderings, painting, plumbing etc., for the following reasons:
Before announcing a figure to the customer, it is necessary to check whether the cost estimation made using the EPIQR method is relevant or not. Building professionals generally have benchmarks or even thumb rules enabling them to establish very quickly whether the orders of magnitude of costing are complied with or not. The classification of the works according to various trades is a way of gaining time when drafting the call for tenders. The change in prices from one year to another differs according to the building trade involved.
Once the lists and classifications are finalised, different items can be priced up. The following sections describe the costing exercise.
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2.4.2
Type of data:
The methodology divides the refurbishment costs into two types Building costs that are used to infer the costs covered by the contractors covering labour, material, plant and possibly overheads but excluding profit and Tender price costs that are used to infer the costs by the client towards construction projects including profits. The tender price costs have been mostly favoured by the clients.
2.4.3
Source of data:
The methodology advises that cost data for refurb works can be obtained from bills of quantities of successful tenderers or the rates published in builders price book. By accommodating the variations for overheads and profits approximate unit rate costs can be ascertained. However, it has been pointed out that these costs would have no provision to account for market or seasonal variations.
2.4.4
Form of data:
It has been suggested to adopt the floor area as a common basis for comparing different scenarios or different options of refurb. Usually a single rate is sufficient to indicate the average price. However, this could be adjusted to account for complexity factors. The costs depend on quantities. Two ways of acquiring information has been suggested. By adopting a common reference project. It is expected that the reference project would contain the information of costs very similar to the items under consideration. This method has the advantage of transparency but would require the selection of a reference project each time. By creating a own profile for the project. This is obviously an interesting choice, but would require very specific skills and knowledge. Substantial time would be required in the preparations. Interestingly, the authors refer the costs to the year of preparation. This is highly useful, as using the methodology for subsequent years, would automatically warn the user of increased costs. Indexing the costs for the region or nation has been recommended. The authors undertook the exercise of comparing the costs of refurbing an element of specific type and code. It was found that a common consensus could not be arrived for the elaborate list of items; therefore overall costs for the items across different countries were compared. The results showed larger variations in standard deviations. Consequently, it has been suggested to develop a national database of refurb items. It has to be noted that in a country like Australia, this means the preparation of database at least on a state wide basis. The important aspect of the above approach is the procedure in arriving at the refurb costs, although this would by far be a rigorous exercise and hence would be more suited to individual buildings.
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2.5
Elaboration of retrofit scenarios
Too often in practice, buildings are not only required to be refurbished but also upgraded. In these situations additional criteria rule the final selection of retrofit scenarios. Flourentzou, et.al (2002), have presented an approach towards these situations, which has been claimed to be a systematic multi criteria analysis. This has been presented in the following sections.
2.5.1
The first intuitive scenario
As a first step, any expert takes advantage of his experience to build an intuitive scenario. This scenario is an action plan. Then, as he becomes aware of the consequences, he modifies the scenario to better adapt it to the objectives of the planned refurbishment. This is however not the only change in his decision process. The authors claim that there are two changes in the decision making progress. The first one is the modification of the action plan, and the second one is the change in the cognitive instruments of the expert, that he used to build the initial scenario. The latter change results from the adaptation of the subject to his real environment. It may lead to a third change, the modification of the initial objectives. However, the cost might have an important bearing in the decisions, which has not been pointed out by the authors. Often the first scenario has a direct relevance to the degradation state of the building. This might be applicable to residential houses, but for office buildings an object which is in a good physical condition might need replacement because of its obsolescence. (e.g. obsolete digital networking) or for the indoor environment quality (e.g. better solar protection for computer screen). The TOBUS tool provides a simulation environment for the expert, to try out his scenarios as explained below. The windows in a building for example could be modified based on its physical characteristics. It can also be a possible source of discussion for thermal discomfort. Any modification to the windows may also influence the ventilation aspects of the building. The expert may also base his decisions to upgrade the windows based on other considerations such as architectural or legal considerations. The tool TOBUS, thus provides an analysis on various view points that may validate or invalidate the initial scenario of the expert. The authors claim that the above interaction does not happen in an expert system that aims to fully model the reality and pretends to provide the correct answers. It has also been mentioned that the optimisation processes based on a single variable such as the cost or energy use might be inappropriate. This contention appears to be vary valid because the decision making process is actually driven by a number of factors rather than a single one. The authors claim that the first level of integration can be made once the expert decides on the adequacy of intervention levels to be applied to each object and this can be made on experts decisions, but wouldnt be included in the tool. This however, is not clear to the user at this stage. Hence a refined scenario approach may be required for further understanding.
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2.5.2
Refining the scenario
In the second instance of the scenario, it is required to reefing the existing scenario. The example considered herein is the building heating system. If the expert decides to add thermal insulation to the envelope of an uninsulated building then the boiler becomes oversized, thus causing an efficiency drop. The action on one object (the building envelope) from an energy point of view may require the replacement of the boiler even if it is still in good condition. Thus there may be numerous examples of interaction in a building. It is possible to model most of these but not all of these. However, the authors claim that this is not the reason to do nothing and adopt the first scenario that comes to the mind. Accordingly, the tool helps the expert to establish coherent scenarios with good rational foundations.
2.5.3
Checking linked actions
The authors maintain that the tool TOBUS does not impose a decision, but tries to confront it with the judgement of an expert and to protest when there is some discordance. For example, TOBUS suggests replacing the sanitary appliances, whilst replacing the sewerage system. However, the final decision is left to the expert. This approach is reasonable considering that these sorts of tools really guide the user. By this approach possible oversights can be avoided. 2.5.4
Synthetic graphs
The second tool made available to the expert is a package of synthetics graphs presented in Figure 2-7. There are two graphs one for the degradation and one for the cost. The original graph contains some colour grades and consequently, it is difficult to derive the exact intention of the authors opinion. One handy observation that can be made is the degradation codes for each item. The probable intention of the `costs graph is to provide the refurbishing costs and to identify the most expensive work in the scenario. Thus this can be again iterated to produce a different cost solution. Based on the information available on energy savings and IEQ, it is possible for the expert to continuously iterate and identify the most important issues. It is not clear about the level of expertise required to operate these programs. The requirements of IEQ may significantly vary between different countries. Thus adopting the principles of TOBUS may help a user with a better understanding. Since the databases are representative of some regional bases, these models need to be tested by the user before adopting them in the decision making process.
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Figure 2-7:Typical Degradation chart and cost charts based on retrofit scenarios
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2.5.5
A constructivist and interactive approach
Checking the hypotheses of these models requires the verification of real time decisions with those taken in a controlled environment. The authors point out that the models like EPIQR and TOBUS were evaluated against users who have actually used these models or tools in real time. It is interesting to note that many agree that these models are systematic and provide better insight into energy savings, IEQ and better global vision. Thus the models do appear to enjoy some success. 2.5.6
Multicriteria approach to office building retrofit strategies
Rey, E., (2004) has presented a multi criteria approach of an architectural issue in office buildings. Typically the retrofitting duration is assumed to be in the order of 25 to 30 years, which can be considered as a preliminary estimate of residual life. Nonetheless the method has some advantages for these offers another view point on retrofit strategies. The issue discussed here is the retrofitting strategy of a building faade. Three strategies namely, the stabilisation strategy, substitution strategy and the double-skin faade strategy have been considered. Perhaps the strategies are self-explanatory.
2.5.6.1 Multicriteria assessment methodology The choice of the criteria has been based on three main fields of sustainability: environmental, sociocultural and economic criteria have been considered simultaneously. In addition under each criterion, relevant issues have been considered. For example, the Environmental criteria have been broken down to Annual energy use for heating, electricity use, emissions etc., thus making each criterion more relevant. Weight sets for each of these factors have been assigned. However, the bases of arriving at the weight sets have not been explained. In order to determine the most effective retrofitting strategy, a software known as ELECTRE III has been adopted. The key steps involved are: Definition of weights and thresholds o For each criterion a weight factor has to be defined to assign a coefficient of importance to three threshold values like, preference, indifference and veto. Criterion-by-criterion comparison o The three strategies noted earlier are compared two-by-two and criterion-by-criterion. For each criterion, the difference between two performance values is compared with the three predefined thresholds. This comparison gives a value between 0 and 1 meaning either concordance or discordance index. Global outranking relation o This is based on comparing two strategies and assigning one over the other provided that one strategy is clearly over the other for majority of the criteria without being too bad in relation to the other criterias. These conditions are based on establishing a global concordance index and a credibility index that may result in either incomparability or preference or indifference. Ascending and descending distillation 27
In order to establish a global ranking list, the list of strategies that are above and below a particular strategy. This complex has been made possible by the ELECTRE III software. Ascending and descending ranking lists o The above step leads to two sets namely the ascending and descending ranking lists. Final ranking list o An intersection of the ascending and descending strategies leads to the final ranking list. This leads to the outcome that one strategy could be before another in one ranking list and also before or equal to another in the other strategy. Thus it is possible to identify whether strategies are equal or comparable or incomparable. o
Although the above process appears to be elegant, the assignment of criteria and weights does require a significant database and skill.
2.5.6.2 Case study results The authors present three case study results to explain this methodology. The first building, a framed concrete structure building with structural facades and naturally ventilated office spaces identifies the stabilisation strategy to be the predominant strategy for all weight sets except for the environmental criteria. This is reasonable considering the age and type of construction of the building (1950s type building). The second case study provides a mixed indication given that the type of building belonged to internationally influences. (Independent structure with suspended glass facades). For the third case study office building constructed after the 1980s the double-skin faade strategy was considered to be more appropriate. Thus the methodology offers sensible solutions, but it would require sufficient skill and knowledge to undertake such rigorous exercises.
2.5.7
Additional multi criterion studies
Kaklauskas et.al, (2005) have presented a similar multivariant and multiple criteria analysis to address the alternative variants in building refurbishment. This method requires the decision maker to use best practices of similar situations and experts methods determines the system of criteria and to calculate the values of initial weights of qualitative criteria, which is very similar to the observations made earlier. Some similar studies have been reported by other authors.
2.6
2.6.1
Normal Distribution Model or ISO factorial model

Methodology
In order to address the generic issues of residual life cycle modelling, the International Standards Organisation ISO, recommended a methodology that has been presented in Figure 2-8. (ISO 15686 Part 2, 2001). These recommendations have been based on the RILEM recommendations, contained in the report RILEM, 1989). Apparently, the methodology is generic and has resulted based on numerous
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inputs. However, addressing the issues of individual components within the methodology requires rigorous efforts.
Figure 2-8.Methodology for service life prediction of building components (From ISO 15686 Part 2 {ISO 2001)
2.6.2
The ISO factorial model
In this model each building element is represented with a normal distribution for its life span which is called Reference Service Life (RSL). Two approaches are possible to obtain the ESL (Estimated Service Life). One uses historic data, presented statistically. At its simplest level this may be represented by minimum / maximum and most likely values of service life for individual building elements. From such data a distribution may be established (e.g. triangular) which can then be fed into a probabilistic model. The data can be presented as a distribution of service life values derived from a survey of experts and practitioners. The ISO factorial model can then be applied to adjust data to reflect project specific conditions. This involves applying the seven factors as described below to a reference service life (RSL) to achieve an Estimated Service Life (ESL) that can be used in LCC process.
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ESL= RSL x A x B x C x D x E x F x G
Where the factors are: A - Quality B - Design C - Execution D - Indoor environment E - Outdoor environment F - Condition in use G - Maintenance regime
The above model has been accepted internationally as a more systematic model. The method has the flexibility to integrate the inputs from other considerations such as indoor and outdoor environment. However, the choice of the factors involved in the equation requires considerable engineering expertise and judgement. Therefore, the method is not straight forward in application, especially the situations with inadequate data.
2.6.2.1 Evaluation of the ISO model The ISO standard contains a chapter that describes the factor method. There is a general discussion as well as a discussion of the reference service life and each of the factors. Some of the discussions based on Hovde and Moser (2004) are as follows: The factor method is a way of bringing together the consideration of each of the variables that is likely to affect the service life. The intention is to bring together the experience of designers, observations, intentions of managers and manufacturers assurances as well as data from test houses. The factor method is not intended to provide an assurance of service life; it is rather an empirical estimate based on the information. The method can be applied to components and assemblies. In modelling the assemblies, interfaces should be considered. In the discussion of the reference service life, it is pointed out that the most reliable way of establishing this is by use of the service life prediction procedure that is briefly described in chapter 8 of ISO 15685 Part 1 [ISO 2000] or fully described in ISO 15685 Part 2 [ISO 2000]. These procedures are based on the RILEM recommendation [RILEM, 1989]. Bourke and Davis (1997), maintain that the adoption of such a model should result in the optimising the selection of components, making large-scale, expensive and disruptive remediation unnecessary. Lounis, et.al (1998), state that Despite its practicability, this approach has many shortcomings. The method is not performance based, arbitrary choices of reference lives and adjusting factors. There are uncertainties and variabilities in the estimation of service life and therefore has limitations for immediate application or may not be likely attainable in future.
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The opinion of the above author the statement that The ISO method is deterministic is questionable. The author maintains that the model is only a fair estimate of the residual life and the deterioration models should include uncertainty in the equation. However, in conclusion the authors state that the use of in-service performance data to develop this stochastic model overcomes the difficulties associated with accelerated life testing and empirical factorial approaches. Hovde (1998) presented an interesting argument. In the short range, he asks for input data both for the quantification of the reference service life as well as the different factors in the equation. In the long range, he asks for a more comprehensive evaluation of the factor method, including possibilities of quantitative descriptions of the RSL and the factors. In addition, he points out that the method must be evaluated according to the general requirements for service life prediction models. An interesting relationship theory has been identified by Hovde that has been presented in Figure 2-9.
Complexity
Simplicity
Applicability
Credibility
Figure 2-9.Relationships to take into consideration in evaluation of the factor method (Hovde, 1998) Teply (1999) states that the following critical circumstances affect the service life and therefore require attention: o o o o o A structure may be exposed to a combined effect of aggressive processes Combination of materials and the design of joints Movable parts and the tolerances of these movements Protective layers Accessibility for inspection, repair or replacement of some parts
The author has also suggested that in order to achieve a further development and use of the factor method, building contractors and prospective owners have to start using the method based on the existing data and experience. This suggestion by the author is useful in establishing the method in long term. Aarseth and Hovde (1999) presented a step-by-step approach involving a value for each of the individual factors in the ISO method. A triple value estimate, i.e., a minimum value, a maximum value and the most expected value has been suggested. The authors state that this principle enables a stochastic handling of the modifying factors. After the statistical calculation the estimated service life is expressed as three figures: the expected value plus or minus one standard deviation. Moser (1999) carried out an evaluation and improvement of the factor method. Instead of the joint statistical treatment of all the factors as shown by Aarseth and Hovde, individual factors were treated statistically (i.e.,
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deterministic, normal, lognormal or Gumbel) and by providing individual figures for minimum, most probable and maximum value of each factor. Rudbeck (1999), presented a discussion of the factor method for service life prediction methods as:
So before the most correct method can be determined, assisted by the field data, one can only look at the possible advantages and disadvantages that the methods present. From this viewpoint, the methods based on the ISO proposal with a probabilistic approach, described by Aarseth and Hovde(1999) and Moser (1999), seem to be the most usable. The requirement for input to develop the needed functions in the two methods is the same, but they report the input in different ways. The method suggested by Aarseth and Hovde reports the data in a very aggregated form (low, medium, and high estimate for each parameter), whereas the method described by Moser enables the use of all available data. From a statistical point of view, the latter method therefore seems to be the most reliable. Rudbeck also suggests that large sample sizes may be required for a probabilistic approach. The use of hybrid methods such as coupling the factor approach and the probabilistic approach can be considered as a viable alternative. This comment by the author is realistic as it can be noted from the discussions thus far, that the residual life service model would need an integration of probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Interestingly, Rudbeck points out to the need for developing transition matrices in the Markovian model , which can then be considered as a reasonable model of estimating residual service life.
2.6.2.2 Further development of factor methods Hovde and Moser (2004), has presented the following topics that might need further research before the ISO method can be applied in normal practice. Determination and collection of data for the reference service life (RSL) and the individual factors Development of sound engineering methods that combine the benefits of more sophisticated probabilistic methods and simple deterministic methods. A practical approach seems to be to describe the different factors by use of statistical distributions. Practical use of methods in case studies of specific building materials and components of specific buildings Application of the methods in life cycle assessment of building materials and components and environmental evaluation methods for buildings Application of the methods in integrated life cycle design and design for durability of buildings
It can be understood from the discussions thus far that the ISO model does not consider the possibility of previous interventions. In addition, establishing a reference service life other than statistical database needs to be explored. In this connection, it is possible to compare two buildings or building elements, with very similar conditions and circumstances to arrive at reference life. All the factors listed in the factorial method may not be relevant for elements under consideration. It thus requires a careful consideration of the priorities and requirements.
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2.6.3
The Markov model
Literature on Markov models are too numerous to mention. The importance of this model is that it has a structured mathematical approach and therefore might be very useful for practical applications. In this model different states of the element and its transition from one to another needs to be established. Rudbeck (1999) concludes that If the probability transition matrices for the Markovian model can be developed and validated, that model would be the one recommended when predicting service life of building components. This conclusion suggests that significant research work is required towards adopting Markov models in residual service life estimation. 2.6.4
Other residual service life models

Bamforth, P., (2003), presented a service life model when historic data are inadequate for modelling purposes. This has been presented in Figure.2-10. The model is based on the contention that the performance of building components is subject to inherent variability and uncertainty and that the initial performance will also determine the rate of deterioration. With time, the distribution of predicted performance will drop to a level below that which is acceptable. It is thus apparent that modelling the deterioration process of elements or building is an essential component of the residual life cycle process. It has also been stated that the deterioration rate falls into one of six typical patterns. Thus converting this pattern into mathematical models could aid in modelling the deterioration process. The rate of deterioration is particularly important when considering the risk attached to assumptions about changes in service life.
Figure 2-10.Serice Life Model for elements lacking historic data
In the above model, the service life has been defined as the time to achieve a maximum acceptable probability of the serviceability limit state being reached. Apparently, failure is the minimum acceptable probability of the element being below the limiting conditions. To apply the model in practice one must have sufficient knowledge of the deterioration trends of the elements. CSIRO, Australia has developed a RSL model based on the emissions of a given element in a region within Australia. The reader is advised to refer to the above institution to acquire the developed software.
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Shah and Kumar (2004), proposed a refined residual service life model, presented in Figure. 2-11. this conceptual model has the flexibility to accommodate repair scenarios that would influence the residual life. To apply this model in practice, past deterioration curves and the prediction of future deterioration trends is essential.
Figure 2-11.Typical deterioration trend of building element Hovde and Moser, K.,(2004) presented some examples of engineering design methods which use the probability density functions for factors as opposed using simple numerical factors. He concludes that the methods require the identification of relevant parameters that govern the service life of all kinds of materials, as well as to set up workable mathematical relations for the application of these methods.
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3 EVALUATION OF THE FUNCTIONAL
OBSOLESCENCE OF BUILDINGS
The aforementioned discussions have highlighted the significance of physical degradation of buildings leading to refurbishment. The service life prediction of buildings is significantly dependent on the evaluation of the functional obsolescence of buildings, since it might be the main reason for refurbishment/ retrofitting of a building. In this section of the report a review of the functional obsolescence of buildings has been presented. The work environment of the commercial buildings is constantly evolving with the addition of new technologies and office automation equipment, new working methods, re-organisation of floor plans, floor space optimisations, etc. A modern commercial building must meet the new requirements, otherwise it will soon cease to fulfil the expected services, depreciate in value and loose its renting potential or market value (Allehaux and Tessier, 2002). Generally, the building becomes functionally obsolete, when the capacity of a property to perform the function for which it was intended decline. Functional obsolescence may originate from several sources following changes in the market, in equipment design or process or because of poor initial design. The following criteria need to be established for evaluation of the functional obsolescence of a building. Determination of the obsolescence criteria; Definition of a suitable breakdown of building services for the application of the obsolescence criteria, leading to the creation of a list of building components/objects. Establishment of correspondence between the criteria and the building objects. Establishment of diagnostic descriptions. Establishment of upgrading description.
3.1
Obsolescence Criteria
Allehaux and Tessier, 2002, defined following requirements as obsolescence criteria based on the authors experience of office building designers, and on building owners expectations, accounting for the particular qualities of service sought in modern buildings. Provide all the necessary technical equipment and infrastructures that are necessary to support office activities; Allow for space flexibility and divisibility, and to ease the maintenance; Meet national safety regulations.
Missing any of these requirements constitutes a possible cause of functional obsolescence for the audited building. Accordingly, the following five objective criteria were defined (Figure 3-1), given in the following sections
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3.1.1
User needs
One of the main reasons for obsolescence in building is the lack of technical equipment and installations necessary to meet user needs constitutes. For instance, in sufficient number and properly placed power, data out-lets, lighting fixtures adapted to computer stations and toilets, etc. 3.1.2
Flexibility
In modern office buildings, the interior space partitioning and general office arrangements and layout need to be modified to adopt the changes in work activities or the company reorganisation. 3.1.3
Divisibility
The building owners quite often search for capacity to divide the building into separate and independent zones. Each zone can then have autonomous installation, layout and energy metering. This makes it possible to rent part of the building to independent business. 3.1.4
Maintainability
Maintenance cost is a major concern for the modern office buildings. Hence the capacity to enable easy and cheap maintenance of the premises is preferable. For instance the pipe network system and the equipment layout in a plant room could be studied in order to ease the implementation of necessary repair work. 3.1.5
Compliance with regulations
The building environment, technical equipment and various installations should comply with national safety regulations. From a strict point of view this criterion may not directly consider part of functional obsolescence. Nevertheless, it may prove to also check this criterion during an audit of the building installation. Owners are always interested to know whether the technical installations of their building are in compliance with up-to-date regulations or not, even if there is usually no obligation to upgrade. The old installations in major retrofitting actions are decided following the audit, corrective actions will have to be done on the modified installations. In such a case, it is important to know the accurate extent of the required work.
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User need
Flexibility
Functional Obsolescenc
Maintainability Divisibility
Compliance with regulations
Figure 3-1: Functional obsolescence criteria
3.2
Breakdown of Building
In order to complete the evaluation of functional obsolescence, the building component and the services in particular need to be broken down. The building components are examined in a systematic way against the obsolescence criteria. This includes the evaluation of existing building installations as well as to record the missing ones. Actually, the absence of certain equipment, installations and building components can be a cause of obsolescence. An exhaustive list of technical equipment and installations in a modern building may be grouped as follows: Exhaustive; Compatible with the evaluation needs of the other areas such as degradation, energy and indoor quality and; Sufficiently detailed to obtain a realistic cost estimate of the necessary renovation works.
The retained list, capable of supporting functional obsolescence evaluation need to be organised in a logical manner that covers the main categories of technical installations, including, HVAC; Plumbing; Fire protection; High voltage Low currents; Vertical transportation systems and; Building cleaning system.
The entire building can be divided up to 70 objects, each one belonging to different types of building construction and services as details in previous sections. The ones that pertain to building services and to be checked regarding functional obsolescence are 44 objects, each one may be included several times. For instance, one building object is the heat production plants that includes six different types as follows: Fuel boiler; Gas boiler;
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Coal boiler; District heating exchanger; Centralised heat pump and; Combined heat and power generator.
For the specific need of the functional obsolescence diagnosis some of the installations may be required to be covered in a more detailed way. This is the case for the field of ultra low current installations that includes 13 objects (i.e. computer network, building management system, fire detection system, ani intrusion system, time distribution system, etc) where each object is very likely to have different types. It is necessary to go into this much detail for some of these objects, since they embody a fast-changing domain that buildings need to keep in pace with in order to prevent them from becoming quickly outdated and obsolete. It is required to provide the auditor with an exhaustive checklist to visualise the potential of the installations and systematically check what already exists and what is missing in the audited building.
3.3
Application of Criteria
Based on defined obsolescence criteria and the list of basic building services installations, it is evident that all the obsolescence criteria do not systematically apply to all the objects or object types. For example: Objects related to the buildings safety (security lighting, fire detection, etc.) do not require to be assessed in terms of compliance with user needs, since they are mandated by the corresponding regulations. Lighting and HVAC terminal units are not concerned by the notion of divisibility. On the other hand, central heating and cooling production plants are not concerned with flexibility.
Compliance with Regulations
NR
Object
Object Definition
Type
User needs
Flexibility Divisibility Maintainability
Piping networks Heating including pumps, and valves and cooling installation 35 distributio (several networks n of each type might networks exist)
1. Two pipe system 2. Three pipe system 3. Four pipe system 4. Refrigerant distribution system 1. Hot water radiators or convectors 2. Electric radiators or convectors 3. Two pipes fan coil units 4. Four pipes or 2 pipe/2 wire fan coil units X X
X X X
X X X
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Heating and cooling terminal units
All equipment located in the working spaces designed for heating or cooling (several units and types might exist simultaneously)
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5. Induction units 6. Heating or cooling floor 7. Heating or cooling ceiling 8. individual heat pumps on water loop 9. Window units 10. Spilt system 11. Air conditioning cabinets 12. VRV system
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
Table 3-1: Representative section of the building objects and obsolescence criteria matrix All the building objects can be accordingly listed against obsolescence criteria in a matrix, defining the cases to be examined. Table 3-1, lists a representative section of this matrix that refers to two objects (heating and cooling distribution networks and heating and cooling terminal units) and their corresponding types. The matrix lists all the obsolescence criteria that apply (marked with an X) and those do not apply.
3.4
Diagnosis codes and descriptions
For each obsolescence criterion, the examined type of an object can be awarded one of three descriptions codes. Code A Code B Code C Good Medium Poor or not sufficient
This aims to establish three descriptions for each type of an object and each obsolescence criterion, each descriptions corresponding to one of three ratings (A, B or C). These descriptions can be reviewed to assess a specific type and award it an A, B, or C code. Some representative examples for the supporting diagnostic text are given below. Diagnosis for obsolescence criterion: compliance with user needs. o Object : telephone (private auto branch exchange - PABX) Code A: up-to-date PABX technology (digital type, possibility to be connected to a network, automatic router). Sufficient number of lines for current needs and for the near future. Code B: a few years old PABX technology, but still operational. Sufficient number of lines for current needs. Code C: out-of-date PABX technology. Insufficient number of lines.
Similar criterion descriptions for flexibility and divisibility can be found from the above reference. In some special cases, this three letter code may not be applicable. The authors have considered the example of an UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) under the obsolescence criterion Compliance with user needs. In this case Code A
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refers to the condition where an UPS does not exist but there are no special equipment that need to be connected to an uninterruptible centralised network (currently or in the near future). Code C refers to the condition where an UPS does not exist but it is mandated by the use of equipment in the building that can be easily damaged by voltage peaks or electric current failure. The software TOBUS provides a user interface for describing the obsolescence criteria. A screen dump from the software has been presented in Figure 3-2 herein to facilitate better understanding.
Figure 3-2:Typical Screen dump of software TOBUS to describe the functional obsolescence evaluation process
3.5
Upgrading Works
There is a possibility to upgrade the quality of an object when the object rates a B or C codes. The concept can be described as follows for each type and each applicable obsolescence criterion. Code B, works allow an object having a diagnostic code B to be brought up to a state corresponding to a diagnosis code A. Code C, works allow an object having a diagnostic code C to be brought up to a state corresponding to a diagnosis code A.
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The following were observed during the process to define the work descriptions associated with functional obsolescence (Allehaux and Tessier, 2002). Considering the criteria of users need, flexibility and divisibility, in 90% of cases the works required involved the creation of a new installation or the complete replacement of the existing one. Regarding the criteria of maintainability, the owners of the building rarely decide to replace an installation solely on the basis of lack of maintainability. There is no obligation to carry out the works when an object is diagnosed as functionally obsolescent. This is very different from the logic of how the building degradation codes and related works are handled. However, In the case of functional obsolescence and its criteria of divisibility and flexibility, even a rate C code for an object may not result in any works that have to be undertaken.
3.6
Review of the model
Despite the appropriateness of the above methodology, it has to be understood that the criteria chosen for the code descriptions have been based on authors experience. This highlights the need for the user to have a sufficient understanding of the building obsolescence process. As such, the method can be adopted by experts or expert guidance would be needed during the process of evaluation. The coding descriptions are highly influenced by the user expectation, national codes etc., Nonetheless the approach to the problem is systematic.
4 Influence of Residual Service Life models on Life
cycle costs of a building

The life cycle costing (LCC) is usually a prediction of annual costs and a cost profile over the life of an asset. This is highly dependent upon the performance of buildings, its components and other unforeseen costs. As noted earlier, modelling the building deterioration and functional obsolescence are associated with significant uncertainties. Therefore an understanding of the inaccuracies arising out of the model predictions is important towards successfully managing the risks in life cycle management. Bamforth, P.,(2004) presented a probabilistic approach to wards modelling the life cycle costs. He suggested a cost breakdown tree that has been presented in Figure 4-1. Importantly, he suggests that in the design stage of cost estimation, 80% of the cost is associated with 20% of tis components. Therefore by focussing on the 20% cost, uncertainties on the most expensive items can be reduced. In here, the residual life cycle models on building deterioration and functional obsolescence play an important role in the decision making process.
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Figure 4-1: Example of a cost breakdown tree
The MEDIC method presents a methodology to model future costs. An example of the costs associated with an 18 year old cladding found in `code a has been presented in Figure 4-2. This approach directly helps in identifying the future costs of individual elements. The relationship between the future degradation codes and the costs are clearly presented in the figure. Thus compiling the individual costs of elements can lead to a fair estimation of the global refurbishment costs.
Figure 4-2: Probable development of the refurbishment costs for an 18-year-old cladding in code à according to MEDIC method There are many other LCC models that are commercially available. Bamforth, P.,(2004) suggests that the skill in LCC lays not so much on the mechanics of the process. The real skill lies in identifying the right numbers for the right boxes in commercial packages. Therefore, it is important for the user to develop sufficient level of expertise before resorting to commercial models.
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5 Review and Closing remarks

Based on the above discussions, it can be concluded that the models available for estimating Residual Service Life fall into two categories: Models based on Building degradation aspects Models based on Building functional aspects
Models such as EPIQR and MEDIC are based on the degradation aspects, whilst the ISO model is based on functional aspects or service aspects of a building. There are number of issues to be considered when applying these models in practice. Modelling building degradation requires the information or knowledge on past and future levels of building degradation. Establishing probability curves in this connection requires a reasonable database. In addition, the criteria employed for ascertaining the existing conditions are more or less based on experience and judgement. Therefore, users intending to adopt this process must have sufficient building evaluation skills or may have to resort to experts. Most of the models developed are outside Australia and hence their adaptation requires some form of verification. The ISO model has the advantage of universal acceptance. However, most of the factors adopted in the model can be handled only by experts. Review shows that extensive work is required in arriving at some conclusions from this model. Consequently, these models lack direct application by end users. Clearly further research is required in adopting these models for application. The costs associated with the life time of a building are significantly dependent upon the refurb strategies in the design stage of the project. The residual service life models present the user with probable costs associated with refurb scenarios in the initial design phase. These models are dependent on the physical degradation state of the building and their functional obsolescence. This involves a complex integration of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. These models do not have the facility to incorporate structural strengthening techniques. The implications of decision making and intervention on residual service life have not been clearly outlined. In addition quantification of risks needs to be undertaken. In addition to the models described herein, many other countries like United Kingdom, Japan and United States are moving towards developing best practice guidelines and procedures in asset management practice. From an Australian perspective it appears that sophisticated tools and guidelines for estimating residual service life would need to be developed.
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6 REFERENCES
Aarseth, L.I., and Hovde, P.J., (1999). A stochastic approach to the factor method for estimating the service life. 8th International conference on durability of building materials and components, Vancover, Canada, 30 May June 3. Allehaux, D. and Tessier, P. (2002), Evaluation of the functional obosolenscene of building services in European office buildings Journal of Energy and buildings, 34, pp.127-133 Ballaras, C.A., Dascalaki, E., Droutsa, P., and Kontoyiannidis, S., (2001), EPIQR-TOBUSXENIOS-INVESTIMMO European methodologies & software tools for building refurbishment, assessment of energy savings and IEQ Energy and Buildings, 2002. Bamforth, P., (2003) Probabalistic approach for predictiong life cycle costs and performance of buildings and civil infrastructures. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Integrated Life-time Engineering of Buildings and Infrastructures, Kuopio, Finland, pp.553-558 Bourke, K., and Davies, H., (1997). Factors affecting service life predictions of buildings: a discussion paper, Laboratory report, Building Research Establishment, Garston, Watford, UK. Caccavelli D., Genre, J.-L. (2000), Diagnosis of the degradation state of the building and cost evaluation of induced refurbishment works Journal of Energy and buildings, 31, pp.159-165 Flourentzou, F., Brandt, E., Wetzel, C. (2000), MEDIC-a method for predicting residual service life and refurbishment investment budgets Journal of Energy and buildings, 31, pp.167-170 Flourentzos, F., Droutsa, K., and Wittchen, K.B., (2000). EPIQR software, Energy and Buildings, Vol.31, pp. 129-136. Flourentzos, F., Genre, J.L., and Roulet, C.A., (2002). TOBUS software an interactive decision aid tool for building retrofit studies, Energy and Buildings, Vol.34, pp. 193-202. Flourentzou, F., Roulet, C.-A. (2002), Elaboration of retrofit scenarios Journal of Energy and buildings, 34, pp.185-192 Hovde, P.J., (1998). Evaluation of the factor method to estimate the service life of building components, Materials and technologies for sustainable construction, CIB world building congress, 1998, Gavle, Sweden, 7-12 June. Hovde, P.J., and Moser, K., (2004). Performance based methods for service life prediction State of the art reports, CIB Report: Publication 294, ISBN: 90-6363-040-9,CIB, NTNU and EMPA, 2004. IIMM, (2002), International Infrastructure Management Manual Version 2.0, Australia, 2002 Investimmo, (2001), A decision-making tool for long-term efficient investment strategies in housing maintenance and refurbishment, Newsletter No.1, September 2001. ISO 15686 Part 1, (2000). Building and constructed assets Service Life Planning Part -1: General principles. International Organisation for Standardisation, Geneve, Switzerland. ISO 15686 Part 2, (2001). Building and construction assets Service Life Planning Part -2: Service Life prediction procedures. International Organisation for Standardisation, Geneve, Switzerland. J.-L. Genre, MEBI - Methode dEstimation de Bugents dInvestissements, LESO-PB, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland, 1995 Kaklauskas, A., Zavadskas, E.K., and Raslanas, S., (2005). Multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis of building refurbishments, Energy and Buildings, Vol.37, pp. 367-372. Lounis, Z., Lacasse, M.A., Vanier, D.J., and Kyle, B.R., (1998). Towards standardisation of service life prediction of roofing membranes. Roofing research and standards development: 4th volume, ASTM STP 1349, PA, USA. Moser, K., (1999). Towards the practical evaluation of serice life illustrative application of the probabilistic approach. 8th International conference on durability of building materials and components, Vancouver, Canada, 30 May 3 June. Rey, E., (2004). Office building retrofitting strategies: multi criteria approach of an architectural and technical issue, Energy and Buildings, Vol 36, pp. 367-372.
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RILEM (1989). Systematic methodology for service life prediction of building materials and components. RILEM recommendation, Materials and Structures, vol.22, pp. 385-392. Rudbeck, C., (1999). Methods for designing building envelope components prepared for repair and maintenance. PhD thesis. Report R-035, Department of Buildings and Energy, technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark. Teply, B.,(1999). Service life prediction of structures Factor method, Stavebni Obzor (Structural Horizon), Vol 8. pp. 137-139 (In Czech). Wittchen, K.B., and Aggerholm, S., (2000). Calculation of building heating demand in EPIQR, Energy and Buildings, Vol.31, pp. 137-141.
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Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods / models

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

PREDICTION OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE....................................... 10

Elaboration of retrofit scenarios ................................................................ 24

Normal Distribution Model or ISO factorial model ................................... 28 2

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

3 EVALUATION OF THE FUNCTIONAL OBSOLESCENCE OF BUILDINGS................................................................................................... 35

Obsolescence Criteria ................................................................................ 35

3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Figure 2-5: Cumulative probabilities of deterioration codes...20

Figure 2-6: Visualization for an element found in subspace of [0, B] ...20

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

2 PREDICTION OF RESIDUAL SERVICE LIFE

Research methods Probabilistic

Simple estimation methods - Deterministic

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

EPIQR method (Energy Performance and Indoor environmental Quality Retrofit)

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Modelling building deterioration

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Modelling Energy consumptions

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Figure 2-3: Example of a user interface for `Heating Energy balance

Modelling Indoor Environmental Quality

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

MEDIC method (Method d Evaluation de scnearious de Degradation probables dInvessissements Correspondants)

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

1 P(a) 0.5 0 0 1 P(b) 0.5 0 0 1 P(c) 0.5 0 0 1 P(d) 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Age of the building element [Years]

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Deterministic Method of diagnosing building degradation and modelling refurb costs

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Elaboration of retrofit scenarios

The first intuitive scenario

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Refining the scenario

Checking linked actions

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

A constructivist and interactive approach

Multicriteria approach to office building retrofit strategies

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Additional multi criterion studies

Normal Distribution Model or ISO factorial model

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

The ISO factorial model

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods

Appendix B1: A summary of the State-of-the-art Residual Service Life methods