Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
21 March 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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21 March 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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21 March 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
393.40
270.90
393.40
Neutral
Buy
589
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
260.00
217.00
421.50
Neutral
Buy
325
0.66
COBHAM
248.10
190.10
248.10
Neutral
Buy
292
0.83
MEGGITT
484.90
364.30
490.10
Neutral
Sell
414
1.32
1131.00
781.16
1131.00
Sell
Neutral
1128
1.07
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1320.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1073
0.71
1743.00
1424.00
1780.00
Neutral
Sell
1578
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
274.50
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
263
2.00
INCHCAPE
507.50
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
503
1.48
LOOKERS
98.50
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Neutral
106
1.24
PENDRAGON
22.50
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
34
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
295.20
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
59
Beta
1.93
712.00
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1245
1.17
1.87
49.56
25.29
55.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
76
300.20
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
43
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1731.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Sell
1116
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
520.50
348.00
557.00
Neutral
Neutral
571
0.55
DIAGEO
2032.50
1477.00
2042.50
Neutral
Sell
1769
0.55
SABMILLER
3437.50
2348.50
3509.50
Neutral
Buy
3951
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
403.00
267.60
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
730
CARCLO
440.00
345.00
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
447
0.74
2686.00
2050.00
2690.00
Neutral
Sell
2177
1.04
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
275.00
179.00
275.00
Sell
Buy
376
1.00
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2310.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
13234
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1714.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1553
1.13
SYNTHOMER
225.80
127.40
250.80
Neutral
Neutral
238
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
202.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
418
0.99
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21 March 2013
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
98.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
258.90
237.90
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
255.60
114.00
255.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.50
BELLWAY
1230.00
660.00
1230.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2077
1.11
2065.00
1177.00
2093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3538
0.64
BOOT (HENRY)
162.00
115.50
167.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
365
0.83
693.50
399.30
693.50
Neutral
Sell
602
1.14
CARILLION
284.50
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
870
1.10
CLARKE (T)
54.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
290
0.82
301.00
188.00
301.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
596
0.57
1528.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
819
1.14
940.50
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1846
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
800.00
348.25
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2180
1.25
1214.00
1095.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3624
0.94
72.50
49.00
73.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
218
1.07
MARSHALLS
124.00
76.00
124.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
308
1.37
543.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3565
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
16.13
9.25
16.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
38
1.11
1010.00
532.00
1010.00
Neutral
Buy
1220
1.15
REDROW
191.40
107.30
195.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
317
1.05
SIG
157.60
82.30
157.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
502
1.74
5.13
4.13
21.50
Sell
Strong Buy
49
0.89
90.85
40.28
90.85
Neutral
Buy
103
1.58
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1409.00
906.50
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2825
1.97
WOLSELEY
3337.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5549
1.43
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1338.00
900.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
789
0.78
649.50
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
868
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
122.50
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
1.30
INVENSYS
359.70
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
351
1.42
LAIRD
227.70
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
87
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1700.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1207
1.01
RENISHAW
1861.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2463
1.26
SPECTRIS
2441.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Sell
2264
1.52
0.08
0.08
0.22
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
170.00
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
409
1.59
XAAR
409.00
185.00
409.00
Neutral
Sell
236
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
87.00
54.25
92.00
Neutral
Buy
106
1.26
BODYCOTE
549.00
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Sell
518
1.61
CASTINGS
338.50
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
717
0.99
VESUVIUS
386.90
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
506
2.19
FENNER
410.90
329.30
456.50
Neutral
Buy
567
1.42
HALMA
519.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
404
0.75
440.75
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
334
1.37
1320.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1428
1.40
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
3.00
2.93
8.87
Neutral
Buy
0.85
295.00
220.30
333.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
560
1.82
2920.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2384
1.00
245.30
177.00
251.80
Neutral
Sell
227
1.65
37.75
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Buy
56
0.73
2680.00
1900.00
2728.00
Neutral
Sell
2356
0.84
VITEC GROUP
645.25
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
605
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2288.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2091
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
480.00
449.00
549.50
Neutral
Buy
709
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
269.40
248.60
305.70
Neutral
Sell
200
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
374.60
283.50
374.60
Neutral
Sell
221
0.58
TESCO
381.45
297.05
385.95
Neutral
Sell
285
0.69
74.25
18.88
76.75
Neutral
Sell
52
0.83
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1881.00
1167.00
1902.00
Neutral
Buy
2102
0.62
CRANSWICK
991.00
732.50
1012.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2080
0.49
DAIRY CREST
438.60
290.40
438.60
Neutral
Buy
494
0.92
DEVRO
356.80
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
519
0.31
84.50
54.50
180.00
Neutral
Sell
-176
1.25
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
839.00
633.50
840.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1558
0.70
2764.00
2005.00
2764.00
Neutral
Neutral
2779
0.57
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21 March 2013
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Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
29.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
34
0.69
416.10
222.40
429.30
Neutral
Sell
366
0.53
1425.00
1000.00
1586.00
Neutral
Sell
988
1.27
677.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
286
0.94
34.24
12.67
35.00
Neutral
Neutral
37
1.50
7.01
2.76
9.30
Neutral
Sell
1.08
29.00
19.50
48.25
Sell
Strong Buy
112
0.98
HALFORDS GROUP
318.20
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
505
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
752.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1538
0.52
Target
Beta
42.75
38.00
75.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
83
1.24
KINGFISHER
286.70
254.10
313.80
Neutral
Buy
395
0.92
392.40
312.20
398.80
Neutral
Buy
523
0.64
66.50
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Sell
61
1.04
300.00
152.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
333
0.46
NEXT
4147.00
2896.00
4247.00
Neutral
Sell
3742
0.66
TED BAKER
1354.00
775.00
1354.00
Sell
Sell
663
0.55
62.00
32.13
68.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
140.00
119.75
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
112
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
775.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
560
0.40
OPTOS
166.00
160.00
279.25
Buy
Neutral
167
1.21
743.50
580.00
751.50
Neutral
Sell
666
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
635.00
530.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
620
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
324.25
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
285
0.92
75.50
55.25
103.00
Neutral
Buy
100
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
906.50
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
593
0.74
CSR
479.90
194.60
492.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1413
1.17
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
74.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
52
0.90
536.00
383.50
717.00
Neutral
Neutral
549
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
149.30
139.20
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
688
0.95
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
187.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-606
0.91
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21 March 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1332.00
1019.00
1359.00
Neutral
Sell
-764
0.54
AMLIN
427.40
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
-3132
0.46
BEAZLEY
210.90
132.50
215.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
2631
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
524.00
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Buy
786
0.30
HISCOX
558.50
371.30
561.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2105
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
850.50
659.00
864.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2956
0.31
117.30
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1714
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
464.00
345.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1938
0.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2280.00
1900.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3865
1.00
ENTERPRISE INNS
111.00
51.75
114.70
Neutral
Sell
82
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
309.90
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
782
0.99
815.00
685.00
815.00
Neutral
Sell
653
0.38
GREENE KING
718.50
474.30
719.50
Neutral
Sell
617
0.90
LADBROKES
224.80
152.50
243.10
Neutral
Sell
182
0.94
1970.00
1396.63
2022.00
Neutral
Sell
1631
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
556.00
455.40
568.50
Neutral
Neutral
610
1.38
334.00
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
301
1.08
144.80
91.90
162.60
Neutral
Sell
105
1.25
11.00
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.25
177.50
111.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
504
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
457.20
269.20
457.20
Neutral
Sell
318
WETHERSPOON (JD)
537.50
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
737
0.68
WHITBREAD
2576.00
1747.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1927
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
386.00
225.48
411.17
Neutral
Sell
260
0.86
MARSTON'S
141.80
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
30
1.19
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
315.00
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1173
1.25
CHESNARA
218.00
155.25
233.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
351
0.70
171.20
106.00
173.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
295
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
207.20
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
173
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1109.00
660.00
1155.00
Neutral
Sell
954
1.70
510.00
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
427
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AEGIS GROUP
238.60
153.20
239.60
Neutral
Sell
-542
1.28
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
108.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1532
0.35
889.00
635.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
137
0.54
46.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2970
1.01
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
689.50
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6561
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
901.50
672.50
951.50
Neutral
Sell
-65
0.98
INFORMA
509.50
340.00
525.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
216
1.53
ITE GROUP
281.50
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1180
1.44
ITV
130.10
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1551
1.54
15.00
4.88
15.00
Neutral
Buy
284
1.25
1170.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2330
0.63
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
81.00
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.79
274.00
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Sell
-542
0.16
0.52
33.32
26.85
33.32
Neutral
Sell
244
STV GROUP
139.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
0.78
ST.IVES
137.25
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Sell
-245
1.49
1.57
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
94.50
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1605
UBM
719.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1191
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
158.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Sell
-458
0.85
WPP
1076.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
1.34
HIBU
0.40
0.26
4.15
Neutral
Sell
-12
1.06
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1773.00
1664.00
2503.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2964
1.75
251.00
221.25
335.20
Neutral
Buy
283
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
1048.00
991.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
970
1.42
BHP BILLITON
1961.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3532
1.45
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
300.00
240.84
592.54
Neutral
Sell
36
2.04
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
LONMIN
5495.00
4596.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2977
0.34
RIO TINTO
3135.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Buy
3544
1.51
5.63
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
170
0.89
832.50
1352.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2499
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Neutral
1045
1.87
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
1095.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1169.50
1000.50
1519.00
Neutral
Neutral
1278
0.81
BP
448.00
391.95
481.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1614
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
280.30
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-44
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
10.13
7.86
12.50
Neutral
Buy
15
0.91
901.00
688.00
954.00
Neutral
Sell
479
1.32
1.36
77.75
55.00
186.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
388.00
321.30
426.20
Neutral
Sell
304
1.44
2224.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
11918
0.86
401.00
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
262
0.52
1238.00
1138.00
1570.00
Neutral
Sell
965
1.06
855.50
651.50
875.50
Neutral
Neutral
846
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
138.00
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
PZ CUSSONS
407.60
296.10
415.60
Neutral
Sell
342
0.69
4701.00
3300.00
4714.00
Neutral
Neutral
4742
0.36
Target
0.83
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.48
0.37
3.88
Buy
Strong Buy
1.01
3040.00
2591.00
3168.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5597
0.48
BTG
346.80
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
196
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
760.50
418.33
769.50
Neutral
Buy
963
0.26
1518.50
1317.50
1518.50
Neutral
Sell
736
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.80
1.80
5.80
Buy
Strong Buy
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.65
1.63
12.75
Buy
Neutral
0.94
2034.00
1727.00
2165.00
Neutral
Sell
1158
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
56.75
33.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-123
0.72
VERNALIS
23.38
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
54
0.89
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
370.50
274.50
387.50
Neutral
Sell
-542
1.15
BRITISH LAND
552.50
467.10
585.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1532
1.03
33.75
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
137
0.82
836.50
595.00
859.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2970
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2149.00
1689.00
2239.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6561
1.21
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
153.00
121.75
176.00
Neutral
Sell
-65
0.97
GRAINGER
135.00
83.10
139.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
216
1.54
496.40
345.60
514.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1180
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
503.50
404.50
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1551
HELICAL BAR
235.00
164.00
249.75
Neutral
Buy
284
0.75
822.00
704.00
849.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2330
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
332.30
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.75
125.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-542
0.72
379.75
311.25
390.00
Neutral
Sell
244
0.42
331.25
311.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
0.35
65.75
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-245
1.17
0.74
588.00
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1605
SHAFTESBURY
589.50
482.20
597.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1191
1.03
SEGRO
251.70
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-458
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
251.00
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
1.55
204.50
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-12
1.04
UNITE GROUP
314.10
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
33
1.75
1.68
1.00
3.35
Sell
Sell
-997
1.02
337.90
213.25
363.20
Neutral
Sell
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
129.50
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
124
0.76
2257.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1328
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
525.00
292.40
543.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1363
1.00
KOFAX
308.25
240.00
325.75
Neutral
Neutral
325
1.12
25.25
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Neutral
24
0.83
692.50
426.17
702.00
Neutral
Buy
987
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
155.00
135.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
315
0.74
77.38
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-93
0.52
1896.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2104
0.77
341.50
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
420
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
422.50
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
165
BREWIN DOLPHIN
195.10
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
122
0.71
10420.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9749
0.83
0.97
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
370.00
247.50
371.50
Neutral
Sell
169
CHARLES TAYLOR
180.00
132.00
189.75
Neutral
Sell
99
0.68
1071.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
165
0.87
106.80
64.75
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
102
0.89
3.35
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
29
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
166.10
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
48
1.44
ICAP
329.00
281.40
422.00
Neutral
Sell
196
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
424.40
227.30
424.40
Neutral
Sell
197
INVESTEC
478.90
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
87
1.55
1346.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3853
1.12
96.55
63.25
138.50
Neutral
Neutral
92
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1464.00
1151.00
1532.00
Neutral
Sell
1109
0.74
SCHRODERS
2136.00
1166.00
2160.00
Neutral
Sell
1243
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1707.00
966.00
1729.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4189
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
233.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
305
0.93
AGGREKO
1961.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1303
1.04
AMEC
1054.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1138
1.04
587.50
212.20
594.00
Neutral
Sell
319
1.61
1100.00
767.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
667
0.48
495.00
317.00
508.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
805
0.77
1306.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
824
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
375.50
214.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
445
0.38
CAPITA
912.00
602.00
912.00
Neutral
Sell
524
0.50
51.50
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
67
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
843.50
616.00
846.00
Sell
Sell
607
0.74
BERENDSEN
753.00
462.00
762.50
Neutral
Buy
986
1.04
DE LA RUE
961.50
885.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
599
#NA
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
DIGNITY
1416.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
813
0.21
DIPLOMA
606.50
407.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
488
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
254.90
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
322
1.03
FILTRONA
692.00
428.00
692.00
Sell
Sell
358
1.10
G4S
291.80
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Neutral
292
0.58
97.90
66.40
100.00
Neutral
Buy
121
1.10
HOMESERVE
227.00
137.50
252.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
0.93
INTERSERVE
488.60
270.10
501.00
Neutral
Buy
692
1.27
3434.00
2406.00
3440.00
Neutral
Sell
1457
0.78
44.50
26.50
44.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
95
1.17
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.50
21.25
39.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
0.71
MENZIES (JOHN)
775.50
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1309
1.43
444.30
341.40
488.70
Neutral
Sell
321
1.41
MITIE GROUP
284.90
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
343
0.55
99.50
91.50
163.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.35
PAYPOINT
859.00
596.50
901.00
Neutral
Sell
695
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
218.70
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
287
1.32
REGUS
159.50
82.65
163.30
Neutral
Sell
107
1.45
99.25
69.40
99.25
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
526.50
394.28
526.50
Neutral
Buy
638
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
430.00
304.50
430.00
Neutral
Neutral
472
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
215.00
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
310
1.23
RPC GROUP
467.80
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
536
0.78
RPS GROUP
261.00
197.00
264.80
Neutral
Sell
248
1.50
SERCO GROUP
628.50
509.50
633.00
Neutral
Sell
580
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
80.00
75.80
101.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
169
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
45.25
22.25
46.00
Neutral
Buy
52
1.25
142.25
70.00
142.25
Neutral
Sell
51
0.55
55.88
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Neutral
61
0.92
338.50
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
625
0.86
74.50
42.00
75.00
Sell
Strong Buy
183
0.78
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
272.70
200.70
281.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
305
Beta
41.58
27.28
42.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
0.69
689.00
390.80
700.00
Neutral
Sell
578
0.53
0.90
KCOM GROUP
82.00
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Buy
118
1.24
TELECOM PLUS
976.50
668.00
1010.00
Neutral
Sell
654
0.11
VODAFONE GROUP
185.80
154.45
191.25
Neutral
Sell
156
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
264.30
178.00
267.40
Neutral
Sell
191
379.50
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
439
0.98
CLARKSON
1500.00
1150.00
1515.00
Neutral
Neutral
1432
0.81
EASYJET
1050.00
443.80
1072.00
Neutral
Sell
644
0.74
201.20
175.70
296.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1045.00
535.00
1045.00
Sell
Sell
376
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1459.00
1086.00
1513.00
Neutral
Buy
1772
0.89
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.29
NATIONAL EXPRESS
213.80
164.50
252.00
Neutral
Buy
239
1.33
NORTHGATE
309.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
588
1.40
STAGECOACH GROUP
312.50
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
352
0.89
54.25
31.00
80.25
Sell
Sell
-38
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
352.60
306.30
361.40
Neutral
Buy
481
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
746.50
626.00
746.50
Neutral
Buy
824
0.49
PENNON GROUP
640.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
769
0.58
SSE
1484.00
1294.00
1484.00
Neutral
Buy
1736
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1671.00
1507.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1487
0.34
695.50
594.00
747.50
Neutral
Sell
659
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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