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21 March 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts


Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6


Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6


Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................7


Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8


Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors


Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath

Over Valued ..........................................................9


Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware


Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10


Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment


Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12


Over Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13


Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15


Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report


This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based


upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for


the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a shares


volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Under Valued

Aerospace & Defence


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

393.40

270.90

393.40

Neutral

Buy

589

0.66

CHEMRING GROUP

260.00

217.00

421.50

Neutral

Buy

325

0.66

COBHAM

248.10

190.10

248.10

Neutral

Buy

292

0.83

MEGGITT

484.90

364.30

490.10

Neutral

Sell

414

1.32

1131.00

781.16

1131.00

Sell

Neutral

1128

1.07

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

Target

Beta

SMITHS GROUP

1320.00

979.50

1328.00

Neutral

Sell

1073

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1743.00

1424.00

1780.00

Neutral

Sell

1578

0.51

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

274.50

173.60

285.00

Neutral

Neutral

Target
263

2.00

INCHCAPE

507.50

305.20

530.00

Neutral

Neutral

503

1.48

LOOKERS

98.50

56.50

100.50

Neutral

Neutral

106

1.24

PENDRAGON

22.50

13.25

25.00

Neutral

Buy

34

1.12

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

295.20

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
59

Beta
1.93

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

712.00

503.20

740.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1245

1.17
1.87

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

49.56

25.29

55.68

Neutral

Strong Buy

76

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

300.20

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

43

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1731.00

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Sell

1116

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

520.50

348.00

557.00

Neutral

Neutral

571

0.55

DIAGEO

2032.50

1477.00

2042.50

Neutral

Sell

1769

0.55

SABMILLER

3437.50

2348.50

3509.50

Neutral

Buy

3951

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

403.00

267.60

406.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

730

CARCLO

440.00

345.00

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

447

0.74

2686.00

2050.00

2690.00

Neutral

Sell

2177

1.04

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

275.00

179.00

275.00

Sell

Buy

376

1.00

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2310.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

13234

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1714.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1553

1.13

SYNTHOMER

225.80

127.40

250.80

Neutral

Neutral

238

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

202.00

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

418

0.99

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

98.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

252

0.51

BALFOUR BEATTY

258.90

237.90

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1056

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

Target

Beta

255.60

114.00

255.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

486

1.50

BELLWAY

1230.00

660.00

1230.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2077

1.11

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

2065.00

1177.00

2093.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3538

0.64

BOOT (HENRY)

162.00

115.50

167.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

365

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

693.50

399.30

693.50

Neutral

Sell

602

1.14

CARILLION

284.50

235.50

331.80

Buy

Strong Buy

870

1.10

CLARKE (T)

54.50

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

290

0.82

301.00

188.00

301.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

596

0.57

1528.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

819

1.14

940.50

579.00

965.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1846

0.99

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

800.00

348.25

830.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2180

1.25

1214.00

1095.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3624

0.94

72.50

49.00

73.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

218

1.07

MARSHALLS

124.00

76.00

124.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

308

1.37

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

543.00

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3565

0.86

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

16.13

9.25

16.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

38

1.11

1010.00

532.00

1010.00

Neutral

Buy

1220

1.15

REDROW

191.40

107.30

195.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

317

1.05

SIG

157.60

82.30

157.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

502

1.74

5.13

4.13

21.50

Sell

Strong Buy

49

0.89

90.85

40.28

90.85

Neutral

Buy

103

1.58

PERSIMMON

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS

1409.00

906.50

1409.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2825

1.97

WOLSELEY

3337.00

2121.32

3337.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5549

1.43

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1338.00

900.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

789

0.78

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

649.50

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

868

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

122.50

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

252

1.30

INVENSYS

359.70

186.10

366.80

Neutral

Neutral

351

1.42

LAIRD

227.70

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

87

2.12

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1700.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1207

1.01

RENISHAW

1861.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2463

1.26

SPECTRIS

2441.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Sell

2264

1.52

0.08

0.08

0.22

Neutral

Strong Buy

0.84

TT ELECTRONICS

170.00

114.00

190.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

409

1.59

XAAR

409.00

185.00

409.00

Neutral

Sell

236

1.11

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

87.00

54.25

92.00

Neutral

Buy

106

1.26

BODYCOTE

549.00

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Sell

518

1.61

CASTINGS

338.50

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

717

0.99

VESUVIUS

386.90

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

506

2.19

FENNER

410.90

329.30

456.50

Neutral

Buy

567

1.42

HALMA

519.00

373.10

531.50

Neutral

Sell

404

0.75

HILL & SMITH

440.75

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

334

1.37

1320.00

776.00

1347.00

Neutral

Neutral

1428

1.40

IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

3.00

2.93

8.87

Neutral

Buy

0.85

295.00

220.30

333.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

560

1.82

2920.00

1859.00

3037.00

Neutral

Sell

2384

1.00

245.30

177.00

251.80

Neutral

Sell

227

1.65

37.75

35.40

104.11

Neutral

Buy

56

0.73

2680.00

1900.00

2728.00

Neutral

Sell

2356

0.84

VITEC GROUP

645.25

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Sell

605

1.39

WEIR GROUP

2288.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

2091

1.39

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

480.00

449.00

549.50

Neutral

Buy

709

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

269.40

248.60

305.70

Neutral

Sell

200

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

374.60

283.50

374.60

Neutral

Sell

221

0.58

TESCO

381.45

297.05

385.95

Neutral

Sell

285

0.69

74.25

18.88

76.75

Neutral

Sell

52

0.83

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1881.00

1167.00

1902.00

Neutral

Buy

2102

0.62

CRANSWICK

991.00

732.50

1012.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2080

0.49

DAIRY CREST

438.60

290.40

438.60

Neutral

Buy

494

0.92

DEVRO

356.80

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

519

0.31

84.50

54.50

180.00

Neutral

Sell

-176

1.25

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

839.00

633.50

840.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1558

0.70

2764.00

2005.00

2764.00

Neutral

Neutral

2779

0.57

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

29.00

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

34

0.69

416.10

222.40

429.30

Neutral

Sell

366

0.53

1425.00

1000.00

1586.00

Neutral

Sell

988

1.27

677.50

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

286

0.94

34.24

12.67

35.00

Neutral

Neutral

37

1.50

7.01

2.76

9.30

Neutral

Sell

1.08

29.00

19.50

48.25

Sell

Strong Buy

112

0.98

HALFORDS GROUP

318.20

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

505

0.67

JD SPORTS FASHION

752.00

606.50

841.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1538

0.52

BROWN (N) GROUP


BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

42.75

38.00

75.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

83

1.24

KINGFISHER

286.70

254.10

313.80

Neutral

Buy

395

0.92

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

392.40

312.20

398.80

Neutral

Buy

523

0.64

66.50

42.00

71.00

Neutral

Sell

61

1.04

300.00

152.00

362.00

Neutral

Buy

333

0.46

NEXT

4147.00

2896.00

4247.00

Neutral

Sell

3742

0.66

TED BAKER

1354.00

775.00

1354.00

Sell

Sell

663

0.55

62.00

32.13

68.00

Neutral

Sell

51

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP


MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

140.00

119.75

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
112

0.45

CONSORT MEDICAL

775.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

560

0.40

OPTOS

166.00

160.00

279.25

Buy

Neutral

167

1.21

SMITH & NEPHEW

743.50

580.00

751.50

Neutral

Sell

666

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

635.00

530.00

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

620

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

324.25

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

285

0.92

75.50

55.25

103.00

Neutral

Buy

100

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

906.50

469.00

971.50

Neutral

Sell

593

0.74

CSR

479.90

194.60

492.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1413

1.17

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

74.00

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

52

0.90

536.00

383.50

717.00

Neutral

Neutral

549

1.08

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

149.30

139.20

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

688

0.95

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

187.00

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-606

0.91

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21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1332.00

1019.00

1359.00

Neutral

Sell

-764

0.54

AMLIN

427.40

312.90

431.50

Neutral

Sell

-3132

0.46

BEAZLEY

210.90

132.50

215.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

2631

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

524.00

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Buy

786

0.30

HISCOX

558.50

371.30

561.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2105

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

850.50

659.00

864.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2956

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

117.30

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1714

0.41

NOVAE GROUP

464.00

345.00

475.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1938

0.47

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2280.00

1900.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3865

1.00

ENTERPRISE INNS

111.00

51.75

114.70

Neutral

Sell

82

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

309.90

158.00

330.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

782

0.99

FULLER SMITH 'A'

815.00

685.00

815.00

Neutral

Sell

653

0.38

GREENE KING

718.50

474.30

719.50

Neutral

Sell

617

0.90

LADBROKES

224.80

152.50

243.10

Neutral

Sell

182

0.94

1970.00

1396.63

2022.00

Neutral

Sell

1631

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

556.00

455.40

568.50

Neutral

Neutral

610

1.38

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

334.00

217.40

350.10

Neutral

Sell

301

1.08

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

144.80

91.90

162.60

Neutral

Sell

105

1.25

11.00

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

50

1.25

177.50

111.00

177.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

504

1.00
0.74

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

457.20

269.20

457.20

Neutral

Sell

318

WETHERSPOON (JD)

537.50

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

737

0.68

WHITBREAD

2576.00

1747.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1927

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

386.00

225.48

411.17

Neutral

Sell

260

0.86

MARSTON'S

141.80

94.40

143.00

Neutral

Sell

30

1.19

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

315.00

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1173

1.25

CHESNARA

218.00

155.25

233.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

351

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

171.20

106.00

173.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

295

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

207.20

138.70

211.40

Neutral

Sell

173

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1109.00

660.00

1155.00

Neutral

Sell

954

1.70

510.00

303.40

537.00

Neutral

Sell

427

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AEGIS GROUP

238.60

153.20

239.60

Neutral

Sell

-542

1.28

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

108.50

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1532

0.35

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

889.00

635.50

899.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

137

0.54

46.50

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2970

1.01

CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'

689.50

363.50

722.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6561

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

901.50

672.50

951.50

Neutral

Sell

-65

0.98

INFORMA

509.50

340.00

525.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

216

1.53

ITE GROUP

281.50

180.00

289.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1180

1.44

ITV

130.10

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1551

1.54

15.00

4.88

15.00

Neutral

Buy

284

1.25

1170.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2330

0.63

JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON

81.00

36.25

82.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

785

0.79

274.00

265.00

377.50

Neutral

Sell

-542

0.16
0.52

33.32

26.85

33.32

Neutral

Sell

244

STV GROUP

139.50

81.50

146.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

673

0.78

ST.IVES

137.25

67.50

139.25

Neutral

Sell

-245

1.49
1.57

THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

94.50

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

1605

UBM

719.00

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1191

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

158.00

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Sell

-458

0.85

WPP

1076.00

743.00

1092.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

725

1.34

HIBU

0.40

0.26

4.15

Neutral

Sell

-12

1.06

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1773.00

1664.00

2503.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2964

1.75

251.00

221.25

335.20

Neutral

Buy

283

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

1048.00

991.00

1381.00

Neutral

Sell

970

1.42

BHP BILLITON

1961.50

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3532

1.45

ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

300.00

240.84

592.54

Neutral

Sell

36

2.04

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

LONMIN

5495.00

4596.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

2977

0.34

RIO TINTO

3135.00

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Buy

3544

1.51

5.63

3.75

22.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

170

0.89

832.50

1352.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2499

2.21

785.80

1205.00

Neutral

Neutral

1045

1.87

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

1095.00

Under Valued

Oil & Gas


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1169.50

1000.50

1519.00

Neutral

Neutral

1278

0.81

BP

448.00

391.95

481.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1614

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

280.30

248.20

349.00

Neutral

Sell

-44

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

10.13

7.86

12.50

Neutral

Buy

15

0.91

901.00

688.00

954.00

Neutral

Sell

479

1.32
1.36

77.75

55.00

186.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

314

388.00

321.30

426.20

Neutral

Sell

304

1.44

2224.00

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

11918

0.86

401.00

254.90

404.30

Neutral

Sell

262

0.52

1238.00

1138.00

1570.00

Neutral

Sell

965

1.06

855.50

651.50

875.50

Neutral

Neutral

846

1.36

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

138.00

102.70

146.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

274

PZ CUSSONS

407.60

296.10

415.60

Neutral

Sell

342

0.69

4701.00

3300.00

4714.00

Neutral

Neutral

4742

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Target

0.83

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.48

0.37

3.88

Buy

Strong Buy

1.01

3040.00

2591.00

3168.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5597

0.48

BTG

346.80

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

196

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

760.50

418.33

769.50

Neutral

Buy

963

0.26

1518.50

1317.50

1518.50

Neutral

Sell

736

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

1.80

1.80

5.80

Buy

Strong Buy

0.64

PHYTOPHARM

1.65

1.63

12.75

Buy

Neutral

0.94

2034.00

1727.00

2165.00

Neutral

Sell

1158

0.65

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.


ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

56.75

33.50

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-123

0.72

VERNALIS

23.38

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

54

0.89

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

370.50

274.50

387.50

Neutral

Sell

-542

1.15

BRITISH LAND

552.50

467.10

585.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1532

1.03

33.75

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

137

0.82

836.50

595.00

859.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2970

0.69

DERWENT LONDON

2149.00

1689.00

2239.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6561

1.21

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

153.00

121.75

176.00

Neutral

Sell

-65

0.97

GRAINGER

135.00

83.10

139.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

216

1.54

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

496.40

345.60

514.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1180

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL


CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

503.50

404.50

525.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1551

HELICAL BAR

235.00

164.00

249.75

Neutral

Buy

284

0.75

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

822.00

704.00

849.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2330

1.15

INTU PROPERTIES

332.30

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

785

1.08

MCKAY SECURITIES

144.75

125.00

145.00

Neutral

Sell

-542

0.72

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

379.75

311.25

390.00

Neutral

Sell

244

0.42

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

331.25

311.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

673

0.35

65.75

32.50

70.00

Sell

Sell

-245

1.17
0.74

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.


SAVILLS

588.00

300.80

599.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1605

SHAFTESBURY

589.50

482.20

597.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1191

1.03

SEGRO

251.70

209.40

271.00

Neutral

Sell

-458

1.70

ST MODWEN PROPS.

251.00

145.50

280.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

725

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

204.50

147.00

215.00

Neutral

Sell

-12

1.04

UNITE GROUP

314.10

180.25

330.00

Neutral

Sell

33

1.75

1.68

1.00

3.35

Sell

Sell

-997

1.02

337.90

213.25

363.20

Neutral

Sell

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

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21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

129.50

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Neutral

124

0.76

2257.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1328

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

525.00

292.40

543.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1363

1.00

KOFAX

308.25

240.00

325.75

Neutral

Neutral

325

1.12

25.25

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Neutral

24

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

692.50

426.17

702.00

Neutral

Buy

987

0.79

PHOENIX IT GROUP

155.00

135.00

231.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

315

0.74

77.38

70.25

89.00

Neutral

Sell

-93

0.52

1896.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Buy

2104

0.77

341.50

247.70

352.10

Neutral

Buy

420

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

422.50

237.30

441.90

Neutral

Sell

165

BREWIN DOLPHIN

195.10

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

122

0.71

10420.00

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Sell

9749

0.83
0.97

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.09

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

370.00

247.50

371.50

Neutral

Sell

169

CHARLES TAYLOR

180.00

132.00

189.75

Neutral

Sell

99

0.68

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1071.00

673.50

1107.00

Neutral

Sell

165

0.87

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

106.80

64.75

110.40

Neutral

Neutral

102

0.89

3.35

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

29

0.68

HENDERSON GROUP

166.10

90.55

171.00

Neutral

Sell

48

1.44

ICAP

329.00

281.40

422.00

Neutral

Sell

196

1.07
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

424.40

227.30

424.40

Neutral

Sell

197

INVESTEC

478.90

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

87

1.55

1346.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3853

1.12

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

96.55

63.25

138.50

Neutral

Neutral

92

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1464.00

1151.00

1532.00

Neutral

Sell

1109

0.74

SCHRODERS

2136.00

1166.00

2160.00

Neutral

Sell

1243

1.31

SCHRODERS NV

1707.00

966.00

1729.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4189

1.27

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

233.00

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

305

0.93

AGGREKO

1961.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1303

1.04

AMEC

1054.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Neutral

1138

1.04

587.50

212.20

594.00

Neutral

Sell

319

1.61

1100.00

767.50

1106.00

Neutral

Sell

667

0.48

495.00

317.00

508.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

805

0.77

1306.00

990.00

1320.00

Neutral

Sell

824

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

375.50

214.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

445

0.38

CAPITA

912.00

602.00

912.00

Neutral

Sell

524

0.50

51.50

25.34

53.50

Neutral

Buy

67

0.78

COMPASS GROUP

843.50

616.00

846.00

Sell

Sell

607

0.74

BERENDSEN

753.00

462.00

762.50

Neutral

Buy

986

1.04

DE LA RUE

961.50

885.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

599

#NA

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

DIGNITY

1416.00

803.50

1435.00

Neutral

Sell

813

0.21

DIPLOMA

606.50

407.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

488

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

254.90

195.20

265.00

Neutral

Buy

322

1.03

FILTRONA

692.00

428.00

692.00

Sell

Sell

358

1.10

G4S

291.80

240.00

307.50

Neutral

Neutral

292

0.58

97.90

66.40

100.00

Neutral

Buy

121

1.10

HOMESERVE

227.00

137.50

252.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

491

0.93

INTERSERVE

488.60

270.10

501.00

Neutral

Buy

692

1.27

3434.00

2406.00

3440.00

Neutral

Sell

1457

0.78

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

44.50

26.50

44.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

95

1.17

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

30.50

21.25

39.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

55

0.71

MENZIES (JOHN)

775.50

542.00

789.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1309

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

444.30

341.40

488.70

Neutral

Sell

321

1.41

MITIE GROUP

284.90

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

343

0.55

99.50

91.50

163.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

240

0.35

PAYPOINT

859.00

596.50

901.00

Neutral

Sell

695

0.70

PREMIER FARNELL

218.70

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

287

1.32

REGUS

159.50

82.65

163.30

Neutral

Sell

107

1.45

99.25

69.40

99.25

Neutral

Sell

56

1.25

526.50

394.28

526.50

Neutral

Buy

638

0.91

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP

OFFICE2OFFICE

RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO

430.00

304.50

430.00

Neutral

Neutral

472

0.85

ROBERT WALTERS

215.00

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

310

1.23

RPC GROUP

467.80

348.30

477.00

Neutral

Buy

536

0.78

RPS GROUP

261.00

197.00

264.80

Neutral

Sell

248

1.50

SERCO GROUP

628.50

509.50

633.00

Neutral

Sell

580

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

80.00

75.80

101.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

169

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

45.25

22.25

46.00

Neutral

Buy

52

1.25

142.25

70.00

142.25

Neutral

Sell

51

0.55

55.88

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Neutral

61

0.92

338.50

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

625

0.86

74.50

42.00

75.00

Sell

Strong Buy

183

0.78

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

272.70

200.70

281.00

Neutral

Buy

Target
305

Beta

41.58

27.28

42.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

77

0.69

689.00

390.80

700.00

Neutral

Sell

578

0.53

0.90

KCOM GROUP

82.00

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Buy

118

1.24

TELECOM PLUS

976.50

668.00

1010.00

Neutral

Sell

654

0.11

VODAFONE GROUP

185.80

154.45

191.25

Neutral

Sell

156

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

264.30

178.00

267.40

Neutral

Sell

191

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

379.50

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

439

0.98

CLARKSON

1500.00

1150.00

1515.00

Neutral

Neutral

1432

0.81

EASYJET

1050.00

443.80

1072.00

Neutral

Sell

644

0.74

201.20

175.70

296.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

532

0.90

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

1045.00

535.00

1045.00

Sell

Sell

376

0.77

GO-AHEAD GROUP

1459.00

1086.00

1513.00

Neutral

Buy

1772

0.89

FIRST GROUP

Target

Beta
1.29

NATIONAL EXPRESS

213.80

164.50

252.00

Neutral

Buy

239

1.33

NORTHGATE

309.00

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

588

1.40

STAGECOACH GROUP

312.50

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

352

0.89

54.25

31.00

80.25

Sell

Sell

-38

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

352.60

306.30

361.40

Neutral

Buy

481

0.46

NATIONAL GRID

746.50

626.00

746.50

Neutral

Buy

824

0.49

PENNON GROUP

640.00

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

769

0.58

SSE

1484.00

1294.00

1484.00

Neutral

Buy

1736

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

1671.00

1507.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1487

0.34

695.50

594.00

747.50

Neutral

Sell

659

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

21 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 15 of 17

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