Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| March 20, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| March 20, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits increased to 0.95 million in February. Indias RBI cut the repo rates & reverse repo rates by 25 bps each. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 48.5-mark in March. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.8 percent in February. US Building Permits increased to 0.95 million in February as against a rise of 0.90 million in January. Housing Starts was at 0.92 million in last month from rise of 0.91 million a month ago. Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rates by 25 bps points to 7.5 percent from 7.75 percent in the month of March. Reverse repo rates were also cut by 25 bps points to 6.5 percent as compared to 6.75 percent in the current month. Cash Reserve Ratio was kept unchanged at 4 percent for the same period.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5746.0 19008.1 14455.82 1548.3 15670.6 1978.6 58497.8 12468.2 92.16 1611.30 2881.00 7510.00 102.09 Prev. day -1.5 -1.5 0.0 -0.2 -1.6 0.5 0.2 -0.7 -1.7 0.4 0.0 -0.8 0.0

as on March 19, 2013 WoW -2.8 -2.8 0.0 -0.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 1.4 -0.4 -4.1 0.4 MoM -3.3 -3.2 3.8 1.1 -2.1 -0.4 4.2 9.5 -2.4 2.1 0.4 -4.3 #N/A YoY 8.9 3.9 9.2 9.8 -8.5 0.9 -13.1 22.9 -14.7 -3.3 -9.4 -12.5 -0.3

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, Cyprus parliament failed to pass the proposal of levying tax on bank deposits which led to expectations of worsening the Euro Zone debt crisis. Further, US equities traded on a negative which also acted as a favorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 83.315 and closed at 83.211 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.21 54.49 54.48 54.49 Prev. day 0.8 -0.8 0.38 0.39

as on March 19, 2013 WoW 0.7 -0.6 0.21 0.21 MoM 3.3 -0.7 0.31 0.31 YoY 4.7 -7.9 8.21 8.22

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.8 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of withdrawal of support to the Congress leading UPA government by the DMK. Additionally, weak global market sentiments coupled strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of cut in interest rates by the central bank of the country along with selling of dollars from exporters. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.52 and closed at 54.49 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,148.80 crores th ($1,311.02 million) as on 19 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.53,647.0 crores ($9,945.60 million) till 19th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, uncertainty in the countrys political system after DMK withdraw its support from the UPA government will also add downside pressure in the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for March 20, 2013 Support 54.30/54.15 Resistance 54.70/54.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| March 20, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade as the Cyprus parliament rejected the proposal of levying taxes on the bank deposits. Further, weak global market sentiments, decline in Euro region economic sentiments along with strength in DX added downside pressure on the currency. However, rise in German ZEW economic sentiments cushioned the sharp fall in Euro. Italian Industrial Production rose by 0.8 percent in January as against a decline of 0.2 percent a month ago. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 0.3 points to 48.5-mark in March from earlier rise of 48.2level in February. European ZEW Economic Sentiment fell by 9 points to 33.4-level in current month as compared to previous rise of 42.4-mark in February. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2843 and closed at 1.2881 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate as the Cyprus parliament rejected bailout terms, increasing worries over default. Further, strength in DX may add downside pressure in the currency. However, expectation of favorable economic data from Germany may cushion sharp depreciation in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.20/69.90 70.80/71.10 valid for March 20, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2881 69.95 70.5 70.6 Prev. day -0.6 0.2 0.34 0.37

as on March 19, 2013 WoW -1.2 0.7 -0.27 -0.24 MoM -3.8 3.7 -2.64 -2.64 YoY -2.7 6.43 6.46

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5097 82.085 82.40 Prev. day -0.05 0.548 0.38

as on March 19, 2013

WoW 1.3 1.71 1.87

MoM -2.1 -2.12 -1.94

YoY -5.0 2.86 3.24

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.05 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from UK added downside pressure. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.8 percent in February as against a rise of 2.7 percent in January. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input rose by 3.2 percent in last month from rise of 1.3 percent in January. Core CPI remained unchanged at 2.3 percent in the month of February. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5071 and closed at 1.5097 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in today s trade on the back of strength in DX. However, expectation of favorable economic data from UK may cushion sharp downfall in currency. Investors will keep an eye on UKs annual budget and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 20, 2013 Support 82.0/81.70 Resistance 82.60/82.90

82.40

0.39

1.88

-1.93

3.23

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| March 20, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.03 and closed at 95.13 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook Technical Chart JPY For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 20, 2013 Support 56.90/56.60 Resistance 57.40/57.80 Last 95.13 0.572 57.17 57.18 Prev day -0.1 0.86 0.00 -0.02 as on March 19, 2013 WoW -1.0 1.24 0.69 0.72 MoM 1.7 -1.17 -1.17 -1.14 YoY 14.1 -5.05 -5.66 -5.63

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 20, 2013

Indicator German PPI m/m Current Account Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Rate German 10-y Bond Auction Annual Budget Release Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate Country Europe Europe UK UK UK Europe UK US US US US Time (IST) 12:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 8:00pm 11:30pm 11:30pm 11:30pm Actual Forecast 0.2% 7.9B -5.2K 0-0-9 7.8% 1.8M <0.25% Previous 0.8% 13.9B -12.5K 0-0-9 7.8% 1.66/1.2 2.6M <0.25% Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium

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