CLIMATE CHANGE: GLOBAL CHALLENGE FOR SURVIVAL

ESTER AGUILAR, EMBEMB-CAR

OUTLINE
Global Scenarios Climate Change Causes (Natural and Artificial) Impacts Global Response to Climate Change Philippine Response to Climate Change What can be done?

The Thames Barrier, a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall.

Mean annual temperature across Australia for 2008 was the 14th warmest on record (0.41C above normal).

In China, 6 million

people suffer from persistent drought in SW China's Yunnan

Some areas face drought after January saw as little as 10 percent of average rainfall, frozen lakes are melting and trees are blossoming in the capital Beijing

Darfur, Sudan: worlds 1st war triggered by climate change rainfall decline by 20% Drought & intense friction over land

U.N. Statistics show that rainfall has diminished by 20% in Sudan the past 20 years, causing drought and intense friction over access to land.

Myanmar

In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis devastated Myanmar resulting in death toll of 22,000
Source: Asia News

In February of 2006, an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 people died after a school and an estimated 500 houses in the village of Guinsaugon, St. Bernard, Leyte was buried by mudflow.

This mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped 459.2 millimeters of rain on the area in the span of 3 days.

In September 28, 2006, super typhoon Milenyo the strongest typhoon to hit Metro Manila in seven years, cut across Luzon, leaving at least 18 people dead

In June 21 2008, Typhoon Frank lashes the Philippines

The capsized MV Princess of the Stars in Romblon (800 passengers killed)

Typhoon ONDOY (September 2009) brought the heaviest rains and floods since 1967. (410 mm 9 hour)

Marikina

Cainta, Rizal

City Camp Lagoon

Puguis, La Trinidad

Balili Bridge

Typhoon PEPENG (October 2009) affecting Cordillera Administrative Region (675 mm 24 hr)

Dec 17, 2011 SENDONG (Cagayan De Oro & Iligan)

CLIMATE CHANGE = CHANGE IN CLIMATE attributable directly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
CLIMATE CHANGE

GLOBAL WARMING (Increase in Global Temperature)

GLOBAL WARMING (Increase in Green House Gases)

The Greenhouse Effect

Its a good thing!

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!

Methane Carbon Dioxide

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CH4

NO2 SF6

CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs N2O CO2 CH4 CH4 HFCs N O PFCs SF6CO2 CH 2 CO2 4 CH4 CO2 CO2 SF6CO2 CO2CO SF6
2

H2O
Water vapor

HFCs PFCs

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Gas Sources

TOTAL: 100,738 kt CO2

Source: 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory

Greenhouse Gases
CO2
burning of carbonbased fuels

CH4 anaerobic bacteria in rice fields, cows, sewage,garbage Methane

Carbon Dioxide

CFCs Refrigeration and spray cans Hydro fluorocarbons Nitrous Oxide

N2O Fossil fuels and fertilizers

CARBON DIOXIDE
NITROUS OXIDE

METHANE

- Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Ocean

CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels (Oil, Coal) by Power plants, Industries and Vehicles Accounts for 60% of warming effect

Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste

Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production

Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects; 21 times more potent than CO2

Nitrous Oxide: Accounts for 7% of the warming effect Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans Fertilizer and Pesticides (Agriculture) Biomass Burning Combustion Process Vehicles Acid Production

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Reduced ability of Ecosystem to Absorb Greenhouse Gases

RAPID INCREASE IN EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Carbon Dioxide--------------------- 30% Methane ----------------------------- 145% Nitrous Oxide ---------------------- 15%
20th Century Global Warming 1990s = Warmest Decade 1998 = Warmest Year Since 1861

INCREASE in 200 Years

1890 1990 = 0.5 1. F 2000 2100 = 2.0 6. F

(0.3C to 0.56C) (1.1C to 3.3C)

Increase in Global Temp.

TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN 100 YEARS UNPRECEDENTED

90% CERTAINLY THAT TEMPERATURE INCREASE DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES

SEA LEVEL TO RISE BY 0.18- 0.38 METER BY 2100

Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased as a result

of human activities since 1750.

GHG CO2 CH4 N2O

Pre. Indl 280 ppm 700 ppb 270 ppb

2005 379 ppm 1774 ppb 319 ppb

11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12th warmest years since 1850.

OVERALL WARMING OF THE PLANET, BASED ON AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER THE ENTIRE SURFACE (IPCC)

ACCELERATE MELTING OF GLACIERS

INCREASE OF SEA LEVEL

Inundation/ Flooding of Low Lying Areas and Small Islands

Global Warming will melt polar ice caps and glaciers. Arctic temperature twice the global rate. 13,500 sq. km. ice shelves disintegrated in Antarctica Threaten Earths permafrost
Greenpeace Photo taken at Blomstrandbreen Glacier in a remote Arctic island

Flight of polar bears on melting ice

>FLOODING

EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Longer droughts have been observed since the 1970s

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE
DISRUPT CYCLE OF PLANTING AND HARVESTING DISRUPTS FEEDING HABITS, MIGRATION AND REPRODUCTIVE PATTERN OF ANIMALS DEVASTATIONS FROM EL NINO AND LA NINA

LOW PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SHORTAGE LOSS OF INCOME OF POOR FARMERS AND FISHERMEN

EFFECT TO RESILIENCE OF ECOSYSTEMS

Changing weather patterns alter migration and reproduction patterns of species

HEALTH RISKS:
VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > HEATWAVES & EXTREME COLD FRONTS --- HIGH RISK FOR THE OLD, THE SICK, CHILDREN AND THE POOR

Typhoons and Floods

The Philippines is located in the typhoon belt. An average of 20 typhoons visit the country every year

Source: PAGASA

LANDSLIDES

MUD FLOWS

32,400 Kilometers, Longest Coastline

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ESTABLISHED BY UNITED NATIONS IN 1988: ---PROVIDE SCIENTIFIC PROOF OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FORMULATE RESPONSE STRATEGIES

1990 IPCC SCIENTIFICALLY CONFIRMED EXISTENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC) SIGNED BY 154 HEADS OF STATES/REPRESENTATIVES IN RIO DE JANEIRO IN 1992: ENTERED INTO FORCE IN MARCH 1994 AGREEMENT TO STABILIZE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES COMMITTED TO REDUCE THEIR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TO 1990 LEVEL BY YEAR 2000. MANDATED ALL MEMBERS TO HAVE INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND DEVELOP STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS TO ADAPT TO AND MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Provided flexibility to developed countries in meeting their emission reductions. Established the Clean Development Mechanism or CDM, Allows Developed Countries to Offset their Greenhouse Gas Emission by buying Equivalent amount from projects intended to absorb Greenhouse Gases Majority of Projects are in Developing Countries

KYOTO PROTOCOL ADOPTED BY 10,000 DELEGATES IN KYOTO, JAPAN -- ENTERED INTO FORCE In FEBRUARY 2004 PRESENTLY, 169 COUNTRIES HAVE RATIFIED THE PROTOCOL -- PROVIDE FOR CLEARER AND BIGGER TARGET OF 5% REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BY 2012 -- NO REDUCTION REQUIREMENT FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Addressing Climate Change:

Adaptation Measures
PREVENT/MINIMIZE LOSS OF LIVES, DAMAGE TO PROPERTIES AND ENSURE FOOD SECURITY

Mitigation Measures
PREVENT/REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES

The Philippines is a signatory and have ratified both the United Nations Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol
Bio-Fuels Programs Ethanol Jethropa (Initial 375,000 Hectares Allocated for Production) CoCo-Diesel Compressed Natural Gas

Signed Memorandum of Understanding, with Chinese investor

R. A NO. 9637 BIOFUEL ACT

MANDATORY MIXING IN THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT: 1% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 5% ETHANOL IN GASOLINE FOR FIRST 4 YEARS. 2% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 1O% ETHANOL IN GASOLINE AFTER 4 YEARS.

CAMPAIGN AGAINST VIOLATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS

CAMPAIGN VS. SMOKE BELCHERS CAMPAIGN VS. POLLUTING INDUSTRIES

RA 9003 ECOLOGICAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT

ASSISTING LGUS IN WASTE PROPER MANAGEMENT

WASTE MANAGEMENT: 643 OPEN DUMPSITES 384 CONTROLLED DUMPSITES 98 SANITARY LANDFILL NSWMC, 3rd Q 2011 NSWMC, 3rd Q 2011

Cordillera Administrative Region (Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Baguio City)
Volume of waste generated
600 tons per day 13.5 tons per day of Methane produced

Reduction of wastes to be disposed

No. of MRFs No. of Brgys served Total no. of brgys Compliance rate

158

167

1,174

14.22%

Safe Disposal of Residual Wastes

There are 18 open and controlled dumpsites in the Region and 3 sanitary landfills being constructed in the municipalities of La Trinidad, Benguet; Bangued, Abra and Alfonso Lista, Ifugao

Number of MRFs per Province

Province Benguet Apayao Kalinga Ifugao Mt. Province Abra Total No. of MRF
37 27 6 5 63 12 150

Total Barangays
143 131 150 175 144 303 1046

Rate of Compliance
25.87 % 20.61% 4.00% 2.80% 43.75% 3.96% 14.34%

 SHIFT IN ENERGY MIX FROM FOSSIL FUELS (OIL AND COAL) TO RENEWABLE SOURCES (WATER, WIND, NATURAL GAS, GEOTHERMAL, SOLAR)

PRESENT MIX: FOSSIL FUELS- 58.4% AND RENEWABLE SOURCES- 41.6%

TARGET: FOSSIL FUELS 49.2% AND RENEWABLE SOURCES- 50.8% BY 2014.

Bangui (Wind power)

Leyte (Geothermal plant)

Ambuklao Dam (Hydropower)

58 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects from Philippines registered at CDM Executive Board. 2.26 M CERs. Most are waste to energy projects. Philippines Ranks 10th in the World in terms of Number of CDM Projects Accepted by U.N. CDM projects submitted to DENR, these are waste to energy, renewable energy (wind, geothermal and hydro), Biogas and Composting Project

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
STRATEGIES/MEASURE

EXPAND VEGETATION COVER

NEED MORE TREES

EVERYBODY TO PLANT 10 TREES/ YEAR E.O. 26 (2011 TO 2016) 2011 : NATIONAL GREENING PROGRAM = 1.5 BILLION TREES FOR 1.5 MILLION HECTARES

*ENHANCE WATER
RETENTION, MINIMIZE FLOODING, EROSION AND SILTATION AND PROTECT OUR AGRICULTURAL AND COASTAL AREAS, PROVIDE HABITAT FOR OUR BIODIVERSITY & CREATE MORE CARBON SINK TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING

ADAPTATION MEASURES TO MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

GEO-HAZARD MAPPING IDENTIFY AREAS MOST VULNERABLE TO LANDSLIDES AND FOREWARN COMMUNITIES. COMPLETED GEO-HAZARD MAPPING OF 27 PROVINCES LOCATED IN EASTERN SEABOARD (MOST VULNERABLE TO TYPHOONS.

R.A. 9729 - CLIMATE CHANGE ACT OF 2009

Climate Change Act signing

October 23, 2009 * Malacaang

SALIENT FEATURES OF RA 9729 Creation of CCC National Climate Change Plan (National)-NCCAP Local Climate Change Plan (LGUs) - LCCAP

WHAT CAN WE DO?

WHAT CAN PATLEPAM DO?

Care Help Act New Green Empower

Climate change will not be effectively managed until individuals and communities recognize that their behavior can make a difference.
The Royal Society, Climate Change: what we know and what we need to know. (2002)