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FREE GUIDE

Introduction To Trading Sports On The Betting Exchanges

BetfairGuru Trading Service 2010

2010 BetfairGuru Trading Service

FREE GUIDE

Copyright Notice
Introduction To Trading Sports On The Betting Exchanges Copyright 2010 BetfairGuru Trading Service

All Rights Reserved

The Copyright in this publication and the material in this publication (including without limitation the text, images, photographs, illustrations, audio material, video material) is owned by BetfairGuru Trading Service and remains the intellectual property of BetfairGuru Trading Service bar the concessions made to accepted resellers of this material.

Any attempt at reselling, copying, duplication, redistribution, or plagiarism will constitute an infringement of copyright. Authors copyright is taken extremely seriously by the Author and any attempts to defraud or counterfeit will be met with legal challenge and claim for recompense. All information in this publication is provided for educational purposes only. No responsibility can be accepted by the author as to the effectiveness of this information in anothers hands. All attempts are made to ensure a responsible approach to trading and gambling is completely discouraged.

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1. INTRODUCTION
Firstly, Hello and Thank you for requesting my Free Guide. This is how it all started for me In 2007, I was grinding away struggling to earn a decent living. Around September 2007, it became evident that numbers would shortly be reduced and unfortunately (or not as it turned out) I was one of the people selected for redundancy on account of years of service. At the time I was extremely concerned about the normal stuff. Bills, kids to feed, cars to run, Christmas fast approaching. Luckily I had some savings which allowed me a little scope to pursue a different approach to working. I did a Health and Safety course at some personal expense but decided against doing it full time as it just didnt interest me at all. Until this time, Betfair was quite a mysterious concept to me. I couldnt get my head around the Laying aspect of bet placement. Having always been a small stakes backer in high street bookmakers, it wasnt something Id ever seen as being possible. Id dabbled with arbitrage a few times over the years but without astronomical stakes, that wasnt going to work for me. So I decided to have a look at the exchanges. I started (as most do) on the Horse Racing markets. Id read all sorts about how easy it is to just follow the money and jump in front and take the profits. The reality however was entirely different and I soon discovered that the old strategies simply didnt work anymore. If they did, they wouldnt be plastered in the public domain would they? I persevered for a few months with horses and the football markets and got very proficient in attaining regular profits that could keep the bills covered and give us a little spending money for the weekends. I decided I needed to delve in to other markets to increase my profits and so I looked at the Greyhound markets. With the Aus races and the GB races, there must be 70-80 races a day to have a go at. At first, the dogs can look frightening. Over time, it becomes very easy to take consistent money from them and after watching the markets for a couple of weeks, I was soon taking on average about 60p a race in profit. Sounds little but over a week, over a month, thats a nice few quid. However, I soon tired of the dogs as it required me to spend nearly every waking hour glued to a computer screen in the bedroom upstairs. Not exactly the life I was looking for when I decided to not go back to work. And so after finding others with similar concerns on a number of forums, I decided that I needed to look at automating my trading.
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With a decent knowledge of excel and a fair understanding of market dynamics, anybody can write a simple profitable bot (automated betting program). And so this is basically what I did. Although I have tweaked it considerably over time and in the beginning, it lost a lot of money, I still use it to this day and currently profit 30-40 a day from it. I just turn it on in the morning, and turn it off at night. Well be looking at this later on. It was probably around April 2009 that I had my newly scripted bot fully operational and taking regular daily profits that suddenly, I found I had only 6 weeks or so of football left and then a very quiet summer period. A little concerned that Id be relying on 30 a day from the dogs, I had a look at a few other markets to see what I could add to my trading activities. After much deliberation, I settled on Tennis and Cricket as must-learn markets. When I learn new markets, I think its imperative to start with tiny stakes until you completely understand whats going on. So thats what I did. I traded every tennis and T20 match I could find with 5 stakes for 3 months. I decided if I was profitable over this period, I would increase stakes week by week. After the first month I was getting 200% profits a week from both markets fairly consistently and couldnt wait until the 3 months were up so I could increase stakes. After 3 months, I went to 50 stakes, then 250s and despite some early difficulties never really looked back. This is a brief account of my road to trading success. It all looks rosy and nice when I read it back, but I can assure you it was very very hard getting to where I am now and I blew 3 banks along the way! I now have mastered my trade and have, over the last 12 months developed a service that compares favourably with any other. I can only suggest you take a month with me and see how much you learn. I have a basic email service advising trades I am looking to make throughout the day. I have a Live Chat Room mentoring service whereby strategy is explained and trades posted in the room during live sports events BEFORE I make them so if you dont make any money then neither do I!

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I also run a pick service which has been absolutely sensational so far running at 13.7% yield since March 2010. It will only get better!

You can find details on all of these services at the website - http://betfair-gurutrading.blogspot.com/ If you have any questions use the contact form on the site or contact me directly at betfairguru@hotmail.com I hope you enjoy what I have to offer and sincerely wish you every success in the future.

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BASICS & THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE I CAN GIVE YOU


Everyone is a beginner at some stage, but this book will mostly assume you know a little about how the exchanges work. If there is anything unclear or that you do not understand, please email me and Ill be glad to help. I have just completed a short beginners guide to betting exchanges and this is available should you wish via the blog along with a few other products which I will add to over time. To the basics I decided to cover this section with a series of statements (which you will do well to learn and remember) and a little explanation to follow them. Here goes in no particular order

(i) The trading strategy itself is largely irrelevant. Its the individuals ability to implement the trading strategy

By this I mean, I can give you the best trading system in the universe but if you have limited experience of the markets, you dont know how the price moves or why, you dont know what to do if it goes wrong, you miss the entry or exit, you dont exercise the required discipline, etc. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. Only experience, built up over time will put you on the path to success. Unfortunately I cant bottle it up and sell it to you! If you have a successful, profitable system, stick to it zealously. Do not deviate from the rules of your strategy or you will lose money in the long term. Be disciplined and keep losses small and in control. If it goes against you, get out, wait and get back in. That is the essence of trading and what differentiates us from gamblers.

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Your biggest priority at all times is preserving your bank.

(ii) When calculating profits, think in terms of percentage rather than monetary value

When Trading, Im looking for a hedged profit on all outcomes of between 20% and 40% of the value of my stake. This is a serious return on my money, unmatched by any financial institution in the world. When you begin on a new market, you should ideally be using 2.50 stakes for the first few months. This allows you to learn how the market moves with minimal risk whilst you build experience and gain knowledge. I always took the approach that if I can get consistent returns of 100% per week minimum against the value of my stake, and I can do that over a period of months, as long as I keep doing the same things, I could keep increasing my stakes in confidence of bigger returns.

(iii) Start small, build foundations and the big rewards come later

What I mean is, take the time with small stakes to learn the markets properly. Everybody needs to go through the learning process if they expect to be successful traders long term. If you take the time and make your stupid mistakes and take the big losses on small stakes, you naturally gain the experience to help you later on. If you can think in terms of percentage rather than money, you can apply it no matter what stakes you are using. Your aim is to be getting good profits over long periods of time.

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The big rewards will come as you slowly increase your stakes.

(iv) Dont increase stakes too quickly

I cant overstate the effect a big jump in stakes will have on your trading and your profits. If you arent used to trading with 100 and 200 stakes, simply dont try to. Build up slowly and that will come in time. I started on 5 stakes on the tennis. I went to 250s pretty quickly and I really shouldnt have. The markets are extremely volatile and you can be looking at big red figures (compared to what youre used to) pretty quickly. Although you could probably turn it around quite easily by sticking to the strategy, you dont do it. You get scared, start trading ultra conservatively, leave the game alone for fear of making it worse or go into mad mode and start chasing your losses or any combination of these things. Believe me when I say, the psychological aspect is the most difficult to conquer. But conquer it you must if you are to be successful and make a living from this. Just be sure to do it slowly!

(v) Do your homework

Learn how to decipher the statistics in your market. Pay attention to these statistics and use them to structure your trades.

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Read everything you can get your hands on. Theres a lot of public domain stuff available on the forums that will help you massively.

(vi) Above all else, practise practise practise!!!

The only thing I cant give you is experience. Youre on your own with this one

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GREYHOUNDS
Now if youve ever watched a greyhound market develop, at first it can seem a little scary. Until 2 minutes before the start of the race, there is often very little (sometimes nothing) money in the market. Once the 2 minute marker approaches, more and more money comes in and when it gets to 30 seconds left, the market is, for want of a better word, mental! Money is flying around all over the place and its hard to see where or why or when to get in. However, if you put a little thought into it as I did, you will conclude, like me, that this frantic action cannot be the reserve of like minded traders. In fact, you will find, it is caused by automated software trying to create over-round and under-round books. (see my arbitrage guide if you dont fully understand the concept). After spending plenty of time trying to understand the frankly insane nature of the dog markets, I concluded that its almost impossible to have a great deal of success by trading them manually. (It also takes up the whole of your day if you want a decent profit.) And so I decided to write my own bot (Automated software). Coverage of bot construction is too in depth and lengthy for a section in this book. It is also extremely technical to the beginner and depending on your strategy, to the expert also. However, a starting point is this thread http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2000&highlight=automa ted. It shows how with a decent knowledge of Excel and the use of Gruss you can construct a profitable bot in no time at all. For more advanced features you may need some knowledge of scripting in
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VBA but even if you have none, its pretty straight forward to pick up. This is the avenue I took after lots of wasted time and money and it simply is the best thing I ever did. I turn it on in the morning and turn it off at night and take whatever it gives me. Even if I only got 10 a day Id be happy as its entirely free money whilst I do other things in different markets. On average I hit between 30 and 40 a day with a fairly simple bot which basically just takes advantage of what other peoples bots are doing and pinches small but regular profits.

I will include a few of the more well known strategies for educational purposes here but hope that you heed my advice and take the automated route in the long term. There are no mechanics as such on a greyhound market and so I will detail the only strategies I believe to have any credit long term. Another important thing to consider is that the greyhound markets are unique against the other markets covered in the manual. They have a multiple outcome situation that you trade before the event starts. All of the other markets are related to in-play situations. What I mean is, there is nothing happening in front of you to give you indication of which way the price will go other than what is happening to all of the other runners. The total book % will always be around 100% and this is how the bots make money by bringing it back into line as soon as it steps out of line. Therefore, if something goes up in price, something else must come down in price.

(i)Spiking
You will find that by sticking your offers some 8 or so ticks away from the current price, very often you will get a big chunk of money come in and swallow it up. This pushes the book out of round and all of the bots kick in trying to correct it. If this happens to you and the other runners prices stay stagnant, stay in as the market will
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correct itself by default and you have a guaranteed win. On the other hand, common speculation says some dog races are allegedly engineered and the result may be known before the event. So if someone takes your money and the price keeps going, get out and be patient. You can often pinch good profits by doing this a couple of times in each race. However, you can automate the process and its extremely boring to do it manually. Also, sometimes, a big spike can send the market into meltdown and you can lose big before you can cut the loss. Again automation can help alleviate this problem.

(ii) Filling the gaps


A lot of the early traders made this strategy their own. They basically watch the market until gaps appear between the prices. When they spot one, they start sticking money in all over the place filling all of the gaps up and taking lots of smaller wins. I think a lot of this strategys effectiveness has disappeared as it has recently become public domain information and is included here only to warn you as some still insist it is profitable. Once again, easily automated.

(iii) Trading the spread


This is what I was doing before I touched on automation. It is quite simple and will also work quite easily on the US Horse Racing and the Aus Horse Racing as they are both illiquid markets. Often on the dogs there is a big gap between back and lay prices. I would stick money one tick above and below and try to get matched on both sides of the spread. With a great deal of success Ill add. This is the strategy my bot is based around today albeit with a few extra tweaks to take advantage of over reactions and is what I suggest you use as a starting point for your
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automation project if you decide to venture down that road.

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FOOTBALL
The Football markets are generally considered to be the easiest markets to profit from. I think this belief stems from the fact that more people have more knowledge of football than any other sport. I, however, disagree with conventional wisdom and insist that the football markets are easily the most efficient markets available on Betfair. You will not find the same opportunities to trade for quick ticks in this market. We therefore have to take a more advanced view of our positions. And consider a long term approach for a bigger reward if we win but also a position to increase loss if we lose. The big difference here is that you have a great number of different markets available to trade in. All of which are very closely related to each other in terms of price and effect on outcome. The benefit of more markets is you have more room for manoeuvre should things go wrong. I cant detail every out in a simple trading manual but I will attempt to put you on the right path and have prepared a sort of save-all manual as to what to do in different scenarios during a game of football which you could purchase if this ends up being your specialist field. You will find this on the website http://betfair-guru.blogspot.com/ There is a point I need to make before we go any further. Probably every pitch youve ever read or video youve seen on trading Betfair markets involves the demonstrator winning. The reality is very different and you will not win every time. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar! The key to success is limiting your loss and keeping it under control. Well known strategies such as Lay the Draw in its crudest format are now dead and you should look to be more creative and there are a multitude of things that you can experiment with once you understand how a market works.
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In football markets, mostly the only things that can effect price are 1. Goals 2. Time elapsed

So most traders are going to be either opposing goals or opposing time elapsed. The trick is game selection and careful staking most of the time although after trying most things on the football markets the very best methods I have come across are positions where you have your risk controlled but still leave yourself with the possibility of a good win if things pan out as you expect. Also, pre-game trading is a favourite of mine. My secrets there though are closely guarded for members of the Stage 3 service, half of these members sign up exclusively for my football picks to trade them in pre-game since the vast majority contract nicely throughout the day.

Whichever sport you decide to trade, decide on your strategy. Decide if you want to be a scalper or a swing trader like me. Decide what % you want as a return and when you get it, take it and leave it alone. Decide all these things, write them down and STICK TO IT! Discipline and a lack of effort are the only things standing in your way. Spend some time watching how the market reacts in different situations and record everything you see. Only then will you be able to enter with the confidence of knowing what to do when it goes wrong. Also, people accept the football markets as very liquid just because a lot of money has been matched. This perception is wrong and will get you burned. A market can only be truly liquid if a lot of money is getting matched at the moment, not that it has been matched 2 hours earlier as how is that going to help you hedge profits or cut loss?

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CRICKET
And so to what I believe one of the easiest markets to take good consistent returns from. Cricket, or the Twenty20 format at least, is similar to tennis in that if you dont have a full handle on the market, you are going to lose lots of money very quickly. You really do need to test things out with tiny stakes before you think about trading these markets for a decent profit as the markets are extremely volatile and fast moving. Test Cricket however, is a very different animal and is a lot slower because there is much more time for things to change. The strategies I use for cricket are only covered in the Live Chat Room Service and we do exceptionally well out of them. The approach we uses requires very intricate knowledge of the market behaviour and so I would not recommend that a beginner tries it but to get you started.. Start taking positions after a wicket or a big 6... The over reaction is vast and quickly corrects itself.

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TENNIS
And so to Tennis! My favourite market as I love the sport. I find I can really get into the market and really enjoy trading the games. Something which cant be said for my attempts on the other markets. Unfortunately as a result, most of my early big losses came from my overconfidence in this area but well hear about those in my next chapter. The thing I adore about Tennis is that there are only 2 possible outcomes in a match. One of the players must win. And youll notice that its unique in the way that the price is only effected by whats happening in the game and there are no other factors involved. The ultimate benefit for me though is that even if you mess things up, theres always plenty of time to put things right again because the swings are so extreme. I began my tennis trading using well know strategies that everybody else was using. Surprise surprise - I lost! It was only later on that I began to really understand and appreciate how the markets moved and Tennis trading now forms the main bulk of our activity in the Live Service.

We all have the same problem when we first get involved in sports trading circles, nobody will really help you out. They will encourage you and give you little hints but nobody wants to give away their hard earned and expensive secrets. I have listed the most common strategies below but the real killer stuff I have a duty to protect for my subscribers

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15-40
A fairly useless strategy in itself but a decent introduction to the market. Good as a starting point but do not go chucking your money in at 15-40 It goes as thus..

When a player is serving and they go 15-40 on their own serve, you lay them and wait for them to get broken. If it goes back to Deuce, you get out for a loss and wait for the next opportunity.
My issue with this strategy is that once the price reaches that point all the value has gone and the entire market is working against you. You are effectively risking 20+ ticks to win 6/7 in most situations. Thats playing to lose and you shouldnt be using this strategy as a method of winning money.

Backing The Server


Another well known strategy is backing the server. Its fairly self explanatory, you simply back a player about to serve, wait for the hold and hedge for a profit. Sounds simple? It never quite works like that. You need to decide when youre going to cut your losses. How good is the player at holding serve generally? How well is the player holding serve in this match? Is the other player a superb receiver? There are always many more variables to consider than the experts would have you believe. The general exit is if the receiver gets to 30 first. You cant risk it going to a break point. Also if the server holds well, youll probably get 10 ticks. Most would hedge here or double lay and wait for it to go the other way when the other player serves. I never did it like that. I would let the server hold, then Id leave my bet in and see if he can get ahead on the other players serve. If he gets to 0-30 or 15-30 on the other players serve, I take half out and hope for a break. If I dont get it, I hedge at 30-30. If the new server goes 15-0, Id hedge straight away.
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Its these little extra bits and pieces of information that will help you to make a success of even the most basic strategies without having to lose a fortune to figure it out for yourselves. I cant stress enough that these markets arent really for the beginner. You will get eaten up pretty quickly and you will lose a lot of money. Take the time to learn the market properly. See how it moves in relation to what happens in the match. Invest some time in yourself now and the big returns come later

Some General Advice To Consider


(i) Always place all trades on the ladder of the favourite. (Just on the favourite if you arent using software). This is vital because all of the money in the market is on the favourites side. That could be back or lay money but it will still always be on the favourites side. If you start to trade on the underdog, the gaps between prices will be enormous and you will lose lots of money quickly. (ii) Ideally you want to be watching the games. If you are restricted to Scoreboards only, please ensure you have 2 different scoreboards open so that you know the score displayed is correct. Often the SB will display the wrong score temporarily and you can get badly burned as a result. (iii) If the score starts moving very rapidly in one direction and you cant see the game and the scores dont say it should. GET OUT, ITS AN INJURY!!!!!!! Been badly burned in the past but getting ahead of myself again. (iv) Dont trade final sets. Not ever! The swings are enormous and you are basically betting on the outcome of individual points. The aim is to take positions throughout the match and trade around them if they go wrong but let them run if they go right.

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End
I do hope you have enjoyed and at least learned a little something from this guide. I obviously cannot give away too much information in FRE manual but I hope to at least offer an introduction to a different way of thinking. The very best tuition comes with the Live Service. If you do not have time for trading then please consider the alternatives on the Stage 3 service as the returns there have been awesome to say the least. If you have any questions about anything that you have read or about any of the services available at the website then please dont hesitate to send me an email and I will do what I can to help. I have listed some useful links on the next page.. You can contact me at - betfairguru@hotmail.com http://betfair-guru-trading.blogspot.com/ Good luck and Happy Trading!!!

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Useful Sites And Services


And so to the end of our little adventure. I give you a list of links to various different websites and web based services that can help you to better plan your strategies and tactics for whichever field you decide to explore first. At the end of the manual, you will find some of the other products I have produced should you wish to purchase the more specific guide for your area of specialism. .

- Download Geeks Toy ----- http://www.geekstoy.com/

Products & Services


Below you will find brief information on the range of services I offer.. Only available from the website http://betfair-guru-trading.blogspot.com/

Services
BetfairGuru Trading Service - 9.99 Per Month
A daily email advisory service offering a plan for the day ahead, which events I will be trading and where exactly I will be looking to trade from. Daily insights into the psychology required to trade effectively. Covering Football, Horse Racing, Tennis, NFL and NBA. This is a great introduction to the world of professional sports trading

BetfairGuru Live Sports Trading Service - 25 Per Month


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A professional trading room offering advice, strategy, theory, application and a full blown mentoring service including bank management. All trades I am considering are delivered by email to you each morning and the execution of the trades is discussed LIVE in the chat room. All trades that I am completing are called into the room LIVE and BEFORE I make them. I have staked my reputation on this service and have never had a dissatisfied customer since I began in June. Get in touch for details

BetfairGuru Stage 3 Service - 57 Per Month


Based on compounding theory and the power of it this service attempts to build a starting bank exponentially over a number of months/years. The gains obtained so far have been extraordinary and the future looks brighter. Originally started in response to members who did not have time to trade the service has grown much bigger than I ever believed possible. Consisting of around 20 picks per month and mostly playing handicap lines in Asia I have proven time and again that my pricing is second to none! Id suggest 50% of my members are subscribed solely for the pre-game moves we near always seem to get in favour of our opening position. Its very rare that the close moves against me and some of the guys just like to get involved with hefty stakes before the event. That isnt something I record , its just an added extra as can end up essentially betting for free because you can use bought equity from the pre-game trade to place on the pick for the day. More details from the website and as long as you have realistic expectations and a long term approach - I am negotiable on price and joining fee so do get in touch.

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Products
002 - The Only Way To Trade The Nags- The only system I ever had

success with long term on the horses. Discussed earlier in the book. Youll need a big bank for about 5% returns on most races, most days of the year. You also need experience so please dont purchase if you are a beginner.
003 - Any Unquoted?- A variety of interlinking systems for trading the

football correct score markets. One near infallible system that is yet to lose. (Although essentially it could happen at some point)
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004 - Sports Arbitrage- If you have ever studied arbitrage applied to betting, youll understand how its much more possible now than it has ever been in the past. Let me show you how.. 005 - Red?- A full guide to help you out of any tricky situation you may encounter whilst

trading the football markets. Must have information if youre going to be using sizeable stakes.
006 - Botting For The Uninitiated- Helping you construct your own automated betting

programme for use predominantly on the Greyhound markets but scope for other applications also.
007- Tennis Guru- A breakdown of all of the strategies you can use in a tennis trading

situation. Ive linked a few together and compiled one master strategy to fit all situations.

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A Final Note
Finally may I thank you for requesting this FREE GUIDE and wish you years of success as a Betfair trader. It will be difficult in the beginning but if it wasnt, everyone would be doing it. Conservative estimates are that only 0.5% of all Betfair accounts are in profit overall. Gives you an idea of how much practise youre going to need before you get it right. Good luck!

Kev

2010 BetfairGuru Trading Service