Regular fulltime postgraduate degree programme in energy technology

Class Year: 1 Semester: 1

Introduction to Energy Technology (MENG 6211)

Case study one

Prepared by: 1. Alemnew Ebabu 2. Kibrom Gebremedhin CE\PR006\2002

Instructor: Dr. Mulu B. Assistant Instructor: Mr. Anwar M.

November 05, 2010

Energy case study on Asia without china

1.

Introduction

Asia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres. It covers 8.6% of the Earths total surface area (or 29.9% of its land area) and with approximately 4 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current human population.
Historical Perspectives of Energy Consumption

Without energy, life does not exist. All forms of life extract energy from the environment and convert it to forms which can be used. Our environment has three primary energy sources

Solar energy o radiant energy 16 o 17.3 x 10 watts energy the Earth's interior o geothermal energy 12 o 32.3 x 10 watts planetary energy o energy of gravitational attraction o tides 12 o 2.7 x 10 watts
Figure 1: Source:http://ess.geology.ufl.edu/ess/Notes/020-Intro_ESS/Fig2.html

Throughout history, man has developed ways to expand his ability to harvest energy. The primitive man found in East Africa 1,000,000 years ago, who had yet to discover fire, had access only to the food he ate so his daily energy consumption has been estimated at 2,000 Kcal or 2,000 dietary calories. Energy consumption of the hunting man found in Europe about 100,000 years ago was about 2.5 times that of the primitive man because he had better methods of acquiring food and also burned wood for both heating and cooking. Energy consumption increased again by almost 2.5 times as man evolved into the primitive agricultural man of about 5,000 years ago who harnessed draft animals to aid in growing crops. The advanced agricultural man of 1400 A.D. northwestern Europe again doubled the amount of energy consumption as he began inventing devices to tap the power of wind and water began to utilize small amounts of coal for heating and harnessed animals to provide transportation. The dawn of the age of industrialization, ushered in by the invention of the steam engine, caused a 3-fold increase in energy consumption by 1875. Among other things, the steam engine allowed man to unlock the Earth's vast concentrated storage deposits of solar energy - coal, gas and oil so he no longer was limited to natural energy flows. Whereas increases in energy consumption had been gradual throughout history, once industrialization occurred, the rate of consumption increased dramatically over a period of just a few generations. The technological man of 1970 in the U.S. consumed approximately 230,000 Kcal of energy per day (~115 times that of primitive man) with about 26% of that amount being electrical energy. Of that electrical energy only about 10% resulted in useful work while the remaining 16% was wasted by inefficiencies in electrical generation and transmission. The change in energy consumption patterns over time are shown in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Estimated Daily Consumption of Energy per Capita at Different Historical Points Adapted from: E. Cook, "The Flow of Energy in an Industrial Society" Scientific American, 1971 p. 135.

2.

Energy potential Figure 3 Proved coal reserves at end-1999: regional distribution

Figure 4 Coal production and consumption, 1999: regional distribution

Figure5: Hydrocarbon reserves\ production ratios

Figure 6: Proved gas reserves at end-1999: regional distribution

Figure 7: Gas reserves\ production ratios, 1999: regional distribution

Figure 8: Cumulative production and proved reserves of uranium at end-1999: regional distribution

Figure 9: Hydropowertechnically exploitable capability and 1999 generation (all schemes): regional distribution

3.

Energy Generation and consumption

3.1 Outlook for primary energy consumption

World primary energy consumption is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of steady 1.7% over the forecast period under annual GDP growth of 3.1% to 2030. The volume in 2030 is expected to reach 15.9 billion tons oil equivalent (btoe), a 1.6-fold increase from the 10.2 btoe in 2004. Primary energy consumption in Asia is projected to grow at 2.8% per annum and reach 6.2 btoe in 2030, for a 2.0-fold increase from 3.1 btoe in 2004.
7,000 6,000
GDP (World)

Mtoe
AAGR* 71-04 3.1 % 4.2 % 2.2 % 4.7 % 1.2 %
GDP (Asia)

World
2004 04-30 3.1 % 3.9 % 1.7 % 2.8 % 1.0 %

10.2 billion toe

Asia

2030

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

15.9 billion toe

(1.6-fold increase)

World Asia N.America

Asia N.America OECD Europe

Non-OECD Europe
2004

3.1 billion toe

* Average annual growth rate

2030

6.2 billion toe

(2.0-fold increase)

1,000 0 1971

L.America Middle East Africa Oceania

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Figure 10: World primary energy consumption to 2030 by region.

Stronger growth is anticipated in countries achieving fast-paced economic growth, such as China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Primary energy demand in India is forecast to increase sharply at 4.0% per annum, and would reach 1.0 btoe, around 2.8 times more than 0.4 btoe in 2004. However, energy consumption per person of China and India in 2030, each 1.9 toe and 0.7 toe per capita, remains well under the level of developed countries, for instance, 5.4 toe per capita in OECD average at 2030. As such, China and India have large potential of energy demand expansion even after 2030 and its presence in the global energy market would become even larger.
7000

Mtoe
AAGR
1971-2004

Asia
China 5.5% 2.8% Malaysia 7.6% 4.5% Japan 2.1% 0.0%
Philippines
South Korea

6000

2004-2030

8.0% 1.8%

India Indonesia Taiwan Singapore 5.5% 8.4% 7.2% 6.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2.0% 2.7%
Hong Kong Other Asia

2004

5000

4.2% 4.2%

Thailand Vietnam 7.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4%

3.1 billion toe

2030

5.0% 1.4%

3.6% 4.6%

6.2 billion toe

16%

4000
China South Korea Indonesia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Other Asia Japan India Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Hong Kong

(2.0-fold increase) China / India

2004 1.4 bil. toe0.4 bil. toe

India
South Korea
12% 7% 17%

6% 9%

3000

Japan China
46%

2000

2030 2.9 bil. toe 1.0 bil. toe

(2.1-fold inc.) ( 2.8-fold inc.)

1000

45%
0 1971

1980

1990

2004

2010

2020

2030

Figure11: Asia primary energy consumption to 2030 by region.

In Asia, about 50% of the consumption increase over the period should derive from expanded consumption in China, followed by India at 20%, Indonesia at 6%, Thailand at 5%, South Korea at 4%, and Malaysia at 3% each. The share of the primary energy consumption in Asia occupied by China is forecast to expand from 45% in 2004 to 46% in 2030. The outlook also envisions an expansion from 12% to 16% for India, 4% to 5% for Indonesia, and 3% to 4% for Thailand. In contrast, the share of Japan is predicted to decline from 17% in 2004 to 9% in 2030 owing to factors such as economic maturation and population decrease, thereby ranking the country third in this connection, behind China and India in Asia.
3.2 Outlook for primary energy consumption, final energy demand, and power generation by energy source

Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are expected to contribute about 90% of the increase in primary energy consumption over the years 2004 - 2030, and therefore would continue to play an important role as energy sources. Primary coal demand is predicted to show the largest increase of all fossil fuels and account for 35% of the increase in primary energy consumption, followed by oil at 33%, and natural gas at 19%. In Asia, coal and oil will play a central role in primary energy supply while gas, nuclear and renewables gradually diversifying supply sources, to 2030. Meanwhile, in the world, oil will remain the single largest fuel whereas natural gas will overtake coal as the worlds second-largest energy source around 2030. Coal consumption in Asia is projected to rise at 2.2% per annum, with its share of primary energy consumption declining from 48% in 2004 to 42% in 2030, but coal would nevertheless remain the single-largest energy source in Asia. By sector, 99% of coal increase is projected to come from the power sector. Oil consumption is forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, with its share in primary energy demand forecast to remain unchanged from 35% in 2004 to 34% by 2030. By sector, it is estimated that 56% of oil increase will derive from transportation sector, 20 % from residential and commercial sector, and 16% from industry sector. Consumption of natural gas is anticipated to increase at an average annual rate of 4.3%, the highest among the fossil fuels, where the installation of combined-cycle power generation steadily proceeds due to its technological advances and considerations of environmental compatibility. By sector, 56% of the increase in natural gas consumption would derive from the fuel input into the power sector, 28% from industrial sector, and 15% from residential and commercial sector. Expanded utilization in power sector is expected to drive an increase in the natural gas share of primary consumption, from 10% in 2004 to 14% by 2030.
3,000

Mtoe
AAGR*

2,500
GDP(Asia)

71-04
4.2%

04-30
3.9%

Coal
48%42%

2,000

TPES** Coal Oil Gas

4.7% 4.8% 3.6% 10.5%

2.8% 2.2% 2.6% 4.3%

1,500

Oil
35%34%

1,000

* Average annual growth rate * * Total Primary Energy Supply

Gas
10%14%

Hydro
500
1.8%1.6%

Nuclear
4.4%5.7%

Other renewables
0.9% 3.0%

0 1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

Figure12: Asia primary energy consumption to 2030 by energy source.

Nuclear is forecast to rise at an average annual growth rate of 3.8%. The nuclear share of primary energy in Asia is expected to increase from 4.4% to 5.7% owing to the fast-paced expansion of electricity demand particularly in China and India. Nuclear capacity over the world is projected to grow from 385GW in 2005 to 499GW in 2030, achieving 114 GW growth. There are high expectations for the diffusion of renewable energy sources with little environmental burden, such as hydropower, geothermal energy, and new energy. Their share of primary energy consumption in Asia is forecast to increase from 2.7% in 2004 to 4.6% by 2030. They are, however, not going to become a major supply source the same as fossil resources, due to their higher supply cost and supply instability deriving from natural influences, such as the intermittent nature of photovoltaics and wind power, the maximum potentials of which are also constrained in order to maintain a supply reliability of power system.
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1971 TWh

AAGR* 71-04 Total Coal Oil Gas 6.4 % 8.8 % 0.8 % 13.8 % 04-30 3.7 % 3.6 % 0.4 % 5.2 %

Coal-fired
56%55%

* Average annual growth rate

Oil-fired
7.4%3.2%

Gas-fired
14%20%

Other renewables
0.9%4.4%

Hydro
12%9%

Nuclear
10% 10%

1980

1990

2004

2010

2020

2030

Figure13: Power generation in Asia to 2030 by energy source.

Vehicle ownership to 2030, In Asia and other largely developing regions, consumption of gasoline, gas oil, and other transportation fuel is rapidly expanding. Among the developed countries, motorization has already run its course and the demand is more or less saturated.
3.3 Oil demand and supply outlook in Asia to 2030
Mtoe
2,500

Net Oil Import

Production Net import
84%
1,650

Demand
2,000 1,500 1,000
70%

89%
2,105 1,865

2005

14.8 mb/d
2030

Rate of import dependence

58% 54% 60%
625 486 329 232 98 291 195 289336 548 393 941

73%
1,389 1,243 910

38.9 mb/d
(2.6-fold growth) 2005 2030

500 0

333

261

239

1971

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

China 3.1 mb/d 14.7 mb/d Japan 5.1 mb/d 4.1 mb/d India 1.7 mb/d 7.5 mb/d

Figure14: Oil demand and supply balance in Asia to 2030.

4.

Energy overall trend

Figure 15: Electricity generation by fuel in Asia excluding China

Figure 16: Consumption of oil products in Asia excluding china

Figure 17: Energy production in Asia excluding China

Figure 18: Total primary energy supply* in Asia excluding China

Figure 19: Share of total primary energy supply* in 2008 Asia excluding China

5.

Energy Investment needs

Meeting increased energy demand in the future will require large capacity additions and significant investments. During the next 25 years, the IEA estimates that investments of more than US$8.2 trillion will be needed to build and maintain the energy supply infrastructure to satisfy projected demand in Asian and the Pacific economies (Figure 20). The higher-income members would generally require less energy investment as a share of GDP, while the lowerincome members require higher energy investment as a share of GDP. In addition to the economic development level, other factors such as industry structure and resource availability contribute to determining the necessary size of energy investment relative to the size of GDP.

Figure 20 Baseline Scenario Energy Investment Needs for Asia and the Pacific Source: UN ESCAP, 2008

As power generation is the fastest growing energy sector, a large proportion of these projected investments will be made in electricity generation infrastructure. Investments in coal, oil, and gas from 2005 to 2030 in developing Asia are projected to reach US$1.4 trillion, or roughly US$56.7 billion annually. It is estimated that developing Asias share of the investment will equal 43 % of total world investment. Within the region, China is expected to attract 62 % of this investment and India about 20 %. The global renewable energy sector has seen a sharp rise in investments in recent years, signaling an increased emphasis on displacing conventional energy with clean technologies. Nevertheless, global investments in the conventional power sector are expected to remain well above investments in the renewable energy sector. As Figure 21 shows, the electricity sectorincluding generation, transmission, and distributionwill require the largest investment, accounting for 63.9% of the total. This is followed by the investment for oil and gas production at 17.7% and coal (including production and transport) at 11.8%. The investment required to build infrastructure for oil and gas trade accounts for 3.6% of the total investment requirements. Investment needs for domestic oil and gas supply account for the smallest share of 3.1%. Sub regional shares of the total energy investment requirements are shown in Figure 22. East Asia will account for nearly half of the entire energy investment requirements of Asia and the Pacific. South Asia will follow, accounting for 15.8% of total investment, and the Developed Group will take up the third-largest share at 15.1%.
Figure 21: Energy Investment outlook for Asia and the Pacific (High Case) Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Figure 22: Energy Investment outlook by sub region (High Case) Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Since the capital investment requirements in certain energy infrastructure offer diversity due to different choices in technology and other factors such as land price, material price, and construction costs, two casescovering high and low investment requirementsare estimated based on the projected energy demand outlook. Investment requirements as well as the GDP figures in this section are presented in US dollars in constant 2006 prices.

Figure 23: Energy Investment outlook by sub region (Low Case and High Case Increments)
Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Developed group are countries: Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

6.

Energy policy

The 2009 Energy Policy is congruent with Strategy 2020, enabling energy operations to be aligned with ADB's overall strategy emphasizing energy security, facilitating a transition to a low-carbon economy, universal access to energy, and for achieving ADBs vision of a region free of poverty. The objective of the 2009 Energy Policy is to help DMCs provide reliable, adequate, and affordable energy for inclusive growth in a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable way. It will emphasize energy efficiency and renewable energy; access to energy for all; and energy sector reforms, capacity building, and governance. Policy implementation is guided by three pillars emphasized in the Energy Policy: A. Promoting Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy B. Maximizing Access to Energy for All C. Promoting Energy Sector Reforms, Capacity Building, and Governance Implementation Arrangements: According to EWC, the following six policy measures could make a significant contribution to energy security: Initiate joint ventures with oil producers (oil exploration and production projects, refineries, storage facilities); Improve the efficiency of domestic oil markets (energy deregulation, reconsideration of subsidies); Buildup strategic oil stocks (OECD/IEA standard); Strengthen regional cooperation (APSA, APEC members, ASEAN); Reduce transportation bottlenecks (oil pipelines, new port facilities); Establish a regional oil futures market.

7. Energy technology, Efficiency

Energy Efficiency

Efficient use of energy to meet required demand is one of the key options for enhancing energy security and sustainable development. Introducing advanced technologies, both supply-side and demand-side is likely to help slow the overall growth in energy demand. Operational efficiency improvementssuch as in production processes and freight transportmay result in reduced energy requirements for producing given output levels and meeting product distribution needs.

Although progress has been made in energy conservation and energy efficiency improvements in the PRC, India, and the Southeast Asian members, obstacles still exist. One major barrier is low domestic energy prices. In some developing members, prices for electricity, natural gas, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, and other energy products are maintained at low levels to ensure supply for low-income consumers. As a result, there is little incentive to improve energy efficiency. Due to financial constraints, developing members have had rather slow progress in applying advanced energy-efficient technologies. To implement effective measures for energy efficiency improvements, the most important elements may be the application of these advanced technologies and the transfer of knowledge for improving operational efficiency. Perhaps the establishment of a framework for cooperation among the regional members in Asia and the Pacific may offer an important platform to facilitate transfer of technology and knowledge. The projected growth rate of GDP in Asia and the Pacific, at 3.5% per year through 2030, is faster than that of the rest of the world. This would naturally translate into the regions faster energy demand growth, at an annual rate of 2.4% through 2030compared with the worlds energy demand growth through 2030 at 1.5%. In consideration of the rising energy import dependency, how to meet the rapid increase in energy demand will continue to be an important policy agenda within the region. Efficiently utilizing energy to meet the required demand is one of the key options for the enhancement of energy security and sustainable development. Introduction of advanced technologies at both the supply side and the demand side will contribute to slowing the overall growth trends in energy demand. Operational efficiency improvements, such as in the production process and in freight transport, will result in lower energy required to produce a given output level and meet freight needs. In some regional members, the options for energy efficiency improvement have not been well exploited, due to a variety of reasons. Some members are faced with financial constraints in attempting to apply advanced technologies, while other members provide energy at low prices due to resource availability or social considerationsand thus the public does not recognize the need for energy efficiency improvement. Energy Intensity Improvement Energy intensity refers to the energy requirements to produce a unit of GDP. A members energy intensity is influenced by many factors, including the industry structure, applied technological level, lifestyle, and climate conditions. Figure 24 shows the historical and projected future trends of energy intensity by sub region from 1990 to 2030. Generally, energy intensity has been and will be decreasing.

Figure 24: Regional Energy Intensity Trends from 1990 to 2030 Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Technological Advanced Scenario Technological Advanced Scenario assumes a series of energy and environmental policies that countries are currently considering or might reasonably be expected to adopt, contributing to more stability of energy supply and the reinforcement of global warming countermeasures. The objective is to provide a consistent future of how Asian energy markets might evolve if Asian governments decided to strengthen their environmental and energy-security policies. The policy measures analyzed have not been selected according to their cost-effectiveness, but rather to reflect the current planning energy-policy in each Asian country. In Technological Advanced Scenario, primary energy consumption in Asia in 2030 is expected to achieve 5,266 Mtoe, 943 Mtoe or 15% less than in the Reference Scenario. The amount of saved energy in 2030 is roughly equal to 1.8 times of total primary energy demand currently in Japan. Energy demand is projected to grow by 2.1% per year, 0.7 percentage points less than in the Reference Scenario.
Primary Energy Demand
7,000 6,000
GDP

CO2 Emissions
Mt-C 6,000

Mtoe
AAGR(%) 20042030 3.9 2.8 2.1

6,209 5,007 Reference 3,828 4,460 3,063 3,636 Technological Advanced

3,000 5,000

AAGR(%) GDP Reference

20042030 3.9 2.5 1.6

4,843 4,015 Reference 3,157 2,526 2,954 3,748 3,396

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

Reference TA

5,266 4,000

TA

1,684 1,060 669

2,000 914 589

1,422

Technological Advanced

1,000

940 Mtoe decline (15% decline)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1,000

1.1 Gt-C decline (23% decline)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0 1971 1980

0 1971 1980

Figure25: Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions of Asia in Technological Advanced Scenario

The reduction in demand for fossil fuels is even bigger, due to the use of more efficient technology and switching to less carbon-intensive fuels. Demand for fossil fuels is 1,094 Mtoe, or 20% lower. On the other hand, the supply of non-hydro renewables increases. The use of other forms of energy is expected to increase by the following percentages: 14% for nuclear power, 34% for hydro power and 63% for renewables. The impact of energy conservation policies on energy demand deepens throughout the forecast period, as the stock of energy capital is gradually replaced. Energy conservation in Asia achieved by 2010 is only 5%.
Coal
200 52 0 -200 -235 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -776 -30% -11% -84 -9% 14% 34% 63% 34

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables etc.
86

Decreasing of fossil fuel consumption by 20% (1.09 billion toe decrease)

Rate of Change from Reference

Mtoe

Figure26: Change in energy demand by energy source between Reference and Technological Advanced Scenario in Asia.

Coal demand declines in the Technological Advanced Scenario. Primary coal demand rises to 1,803 Mtoe in 2030 in the Technological Advanced Scenario. In 2030, energy conservation in coal achieves about 30% or 1,100 Mtce, the scale of which corresponds to 3.6 times of coal demand in India, 0.7 times in China. The saving is bigger than for any other fuel, both in absolute and in percentage terms. The average annual growth rate of coal demand is 0.8%, 1.4 points lower than in the Reference Scenario. Promoting clean coal technology in Asia has tremendous significance in order to ensure coal supply and environmental protection. Primary oil demand increases to 1,870 Mtoe (39mb/d) in 2030 in the Technological Advanced Scenario, 230 Mtoe (4.9mb/d), or 11% lower than in the Reference. This saving volume is roughly equivalent to the annual oil production of Iran and Oman together. Natural gas demand is 80 Mtoe, or 9% lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario, the volume of which is equal to 1.2 times of current LNG imports in Japan. High efficient technology such as MACC - More Advanced Combined Cycle etc. - is expected to contribute largely to ensure gas demand and supply in Asia. In the Technological Advanced Scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions are 3.7 Gt-C in 2030, 48% higher than current emissions. This is about 1.1 Gt-C, or 22% lower than in the Reference Scenario. The reduction is comparable to the current emissions of China or 3.2 times of Japan. By 2030, carbon-free fuels hold 16% of Asian primary energy demand in the Technological Advanced Scenario, four percentage points more than in the Reference Scenario. Among the fossil fuels, coal experiences the biggest decline in market share from 42% to 34%. On average, CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed are 14% lower in 2030 than in 2004 and 9% lower than in the Reference Scenario.
Since fossil fuels would be the source for about 90% of the incremental increase in world primary energy consumption through 2030, CO2 emissions, which came to about 7.4 billion (carbonequivalent) tons in 2004, are forecast to reach about 11.4 billion tons by 2030. World CO2 emissions would consequently expand at an average annual rate of 1.7%, about the same as for primary energy consumption, and exhibit a 1.5-fold increase to 2030, with approximately 30% and 60% of the world increment projected to be accounted for by emissions in China and in the whole Asian region, respectively.
5000

Mt-C
Incremental increase,2004-2030

4.8 Gt-C
1134

World
2004

4000

2.3
748 482 32%
Other Asia

Gt-C

27%

7.4 Gt-C
2030

49%
3000

47
Japan China

21%
India

2.5 Gt-C

Other Asia
16%

India 0.31Gt-C 0.79Gt-C

22% 12%

11.4 Gt-C (1.5-fold growth) Asia

2004

2000

1000

China 1.3Gt-C 2.4Gt-C Japan 0.31Gt-C 0.30Gt-C

2010 2020

50%

52% 14%
1980 1990 2004

2.5 Gt-C
2030

0 1971

6%
2030

4.8 Gt-C (1.9-fold growth)

Figure27: Asia CO2 emissions to 2030 by region.

CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion One fifth of the worlds population accounts for more than half of world CO2 emissions. Ten countries account for two thirds of world emissions.

However, their role is decreasing rapidly, from almost three fourth of total emissions in 1990 to 65% in 2000 and 54% in 2008. Since 2008, China has become the largest emitter in front of the United States with 21% of total emissions, up from 11% in 1990. The top 5 emitters of energy related CO2 emissions, China, USA, Russia, India and Japan, represented 56% of world emissions in 2008. The top ten emitters, including in addition Germany, UK, South Korea, South Africa, and Italy made up two thirds of world emissions that year. Developing countries with high economic growth have registered a very rapid increase in their emissions (by around 160% in China, India and The Middle East). On the opposite, there is no progression in Europe where these emissions are in 2008 back to their 1990 level because of strong climate change policies. North America and OECD Asia & Pacific experienced a progression in their emissions (38% and 17% respectively), as climate policies have been weaker in some of the countries (e.g. USA and Australia). The decrease in emissions in the CIS is due to the sharp contraction of their economies in the 90s; since 1998, their emissions are however increasing (+ 14%). As a result of these trends, world CO2 emissions from energy use were 40% higher in 2008 than in 1990 and two third of this growth took place since 2000.
Figure 28: Distribution of world CO2 emissions from energy use (2008) Source: ENERDATA

Conclusion: While it is naturally important for the individual countries to make efforts to secure their own energy supplies, excessive pursuit of the national interest by any single country could damage the energy security of the rest of the region. It is, hence, increasingly important for the issue to be treated as one where all Asian countries have a common stake and can elaborately commit themselves. To this end, it is important for the Asian countries to pursue the following major tasks: 1) fuller exercise of bargaining power given their collective position as a massive regional consumer of oil, and strengthening of ties of dialogue and cooperation with oil producing countries; 2) strategic construction of a shared reserve scheme for response to emergencies to deal with short-term crises such as oil supply disruptions; 3) promotion of cooperative resource development and procurement inside and outside the region; 4) enhancement of regional partnership on effective use of surplus petroleum processing capacity and on enhancing quality standard in petroleum supply; 5) ensuring security at the Straits of Malacca and establishing emergency program including securing alternative transport route; and 6) development of regional cooperation on diversification of fuels with oil sands and bio-fuel etc.

Abbreviations ADB - Asian Development Bank APERC - Asian-Pacific Energy Research Center APEC - Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation APSA - Asian-Pacific Trade Agency ASEAN-plus3 - Association of Southeast Asian Nations btoe - billion tons of oil equivalent CIS - commonwealth of independent states DMC - Developing member country EWC - East West Centre GDP - gross domestic product Gwh - tera watt hour IEA - international energy agency LNG - liquefied natural gas LPG - liquefied petroleum gas MACC - More Advanced Combined Cycle mb/d - million barrels per day Mtoe - million tons of oil equivalent NGL - natural gas liquids OECD - organization for economic cooperation and development PRC - peoples republic of china TPES - total primary energy supply Twh - tera watt hour UK - United Kingdom
References: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (OECD/IEA) (2006), World energy outlook 2006, OECD, Paris. 2 US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (2006), International energy outlook 2006, DOE/EIA, Washington DC, USA. 3 European Commission (2003), World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030, European Commission, Brussels. 4 Ito, K., Morita, Y. and Komiyama, R.:Asia/World energy outlook 2006 , IEEJ Research Paper, September 2006 (http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/index.html) 5 Nakanishi, T. and Komiyama, R.:Supply and Demand Analysis on Petroleum Products and Crude Oils for Asia and the World, IEEJ Research Paper, August 2006 (http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/index.html) 6 Asian Development Bank (2006), Asian Development Outlook 2006, ADB, Philippines. 7 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (OECDIEA) (2006), ENERGY POLICIES OF IEA COUNTRIES 2006 Review, OECD, Paris. 8 United Nations (2005), World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, UN, New York, USA. 9 US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (2006), Annual energy outlook 2006, DOE/EIA, Washington DC, USA. 10 Planning Commission, Government of India (2005), Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, New Delhi, India. 11 IEA Energy statistics, http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm 1