Ken Black QA 5th Chapter 4 Solution

Chapter 4: Probability
Chapter 4
Probability
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The main objective of Chapter 4 is to help you understand the basic principles of
probability, specifically enabling you to
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Comprehend the different ways of assigning probability.

Understand and apply marginal, union, joint, and conditional probabilities.
Select the appropriate law of probability to use in solving problems.
Solve problems using the laws of probability, including the law of addition, the
law of multiplication , and the law of conditional probability.
Revise probabilities using Bayes' rule.
CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY

Students can be motivated to study probability by realizing that the field of
probability has some stand-alone application in their lives in such applied areas human
resource analysis, actuarial science, and gaming. In addition, students should understand
that much of the rest of this course is based on probabilities even though they will not be
directly applying many of these formulas in other chapters.
This chapter is frustrating for the learner because probability problems can be
approached by using several different techniques. Whereas, in many chapters of this text,
students will approach problems by using one standard technique, in chapter 4, different
students will often use different approaches to the same problem. The text attempts to
emphasize this point and underscore it by presenting several different ways to solve
probability problems. The probability rules and laws presented in the chapter can
virtually always be used in solving probability problems. However, it is sometimes easier
to construct a probability matrix or a tree diagram or use the sample space to solve the
problem. If the student is aware that what they have at their hands is an array of tools or
techniques, they will be less overwhelmed in approaching a probability problem. An
attempt has been made to differentiate the several types of probabilities so that students
can sort out the various types of problems.
In teaching students how to construct a probability matrix, emphasize that it is

usually best to place only one variable along each of the two dimensions of the matrix.
(That is, place Mastercard with yes/no on one axis and Visa with yes/no on the other
instead of trying to place Mastercard and Visa along the same axis).
This particular chapter is very amenable to the use of visual aids. Students enjoy
rolling dice, tossing coins, and drawing cards as a part of the class experience. Of all the
chapters in the book, it is most imperative that students work a lot of problems in this
chapter. Probability problems are so varied and individualized that a significant portion
of the learning comes in the doing. Experience is an important factor in working
probability problems.
Section 4.8 on Bayes theorem can be skipped in a one-semester course without
losing any continuity. This section is a prerequisite to the chapter 19 presentation of
revising probabilities in light of sample information (section 19.4).
CHAPTER OUTLINE
4.1
Introduction to Probability
4.2
Methods of Assigning Probabilities

Classical Method of Assigning Probabilities
Relative Frequency of Occurrence
Subjective Probability
4.3
Structure of Probability
Experiment
Event
Elementary Events
Sample Space
Unions and Intersections
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent Events
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Complimentary Events
Counting the Possibilities
The mn Counting Rule
Sampling from a Population with Replacement
Combinations: Sampling from a Population Without Replacement
4.4
Marginal, Union, Joint, and Conditional Probabilities
4.5
Addition Laws
Probability Matrices
Complement of a Union
Special Law of Addition
4.6
Multiplication Laws
General Law of Multiplication
Special Law of Multiplication
4.7
Conditional Probability
Independent Events
4.8
Revision of Probabilities: Bayes' Rule
KEY TERMS
A Priori
Bayes' Rule
Classical Method of Assigning Probabilities
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Combinations
Complement of a Union
Complement
Conditional Probability
Elementary Events
Event
Experiment
Independent Events
Intersection
Joint Probability
Marginal Probability
mn Counting Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability Matrix
Relative Frequency of Occurrence
Sample Space
Set Notation
Subjective Probability
Union
Union Probability
SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 4

4.1
Enumeration of the six parts: D1, D2, D3, A4, A5, A6

D = Defective part
A = Acceptable part
Sample Space:
D1 D2,
D1 D3,
D1 A4,
D1 A5,
D1 A6,
D2 D3,
D2 A4,
D2 A5,
D2 A6,
D3 A4,
D3 A5
D3 A6
A4 A5
A4 A6
A5 A6
There are 15 members of the sample space

The probability of selecting exactly one defect out of
two is:
9/15 = .60
4.2
X = {1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9}, Y = {2, 4, 7, 9}, and Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 7,}

a)
X Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9}
b)
X _ Y = {7, 9}
c)
X _ Z = {1, 3, 7}
d)
X Y Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9}
e)
X_ Y_ Z=
{7}
f)
(X Y) _ Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9} _ {1, 2, 3, 4, 7} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 7}
g)
(Y _ Z) (X _ Y) = {2, 4, 7} {7, 9} = {2, 4, 7, 9}
h)
X or Y = X Y = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9}
i)
Y and Z = Y _ Z = {2, 4, 7}
4.3
If A = {2, 6, 12, 24} and the population is the positive even numbers through 30,
A = {4, 8, 10, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 26, 28, 30}
4.4
6(4)(3)(3) = 216
4.5
Enumeration of the six parts: D1, D2, A1, A2, A3, A4

D = Defective part
A = Acceptable part
Sample Space:
D1 D2 A1,
D1 D2 A4,
D1 A1 A4,
D1 A3 A4,
D2 A1 A4,
D2 A3 A4,
A1 A3 A4,
D1 D2 A2,
D1 A1 A2,
D1 A2 A3,
D2 A1 A2,
D2 A2 A3,
A1 A2 A3,
A2 A3 A4
D1 D2 A3,
D1 A1 A3,
D1 A2 A4,
D2 A1 A3,
D2 A2 A4,
A1 A2 A4,
Combinations are used to counting the sample space because sampling is done
without replacement.
C3 =
6!
= 20
3!3!
Probability that one of three is defective is:

12/20 = 3/5
.60
There are 20 members of the sample space and 12 of them have exactly
1 defective part.
4.6
107 = 10,000,000 different numbers
4.7
20
C6 =
20 !
= 38,760
6!14 !
It is assumed here that 6 different (without replacement) employees are to be

selected.
4.8
P(A) = .10, P(B) = .12, P(C) = .21, P(A _

a) P(A C) = P(A) + P(C) - P(A _
C) = .05 P(B _
C) = .03
C) = .10 + .21 - .05 = .26
b) P(B C) = P(B) + P(C) - P(B _ C) = .12 + .21 - .03 = .30

c) If A, B mutually exclusive, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) = .10 + .12 = .22
4.9
7167
5167
12
25
10
20
15
23
16
21
60
a) P(A D) = P(A) + P(D) - P(A _
D) = 25/60 + 23/60 - 5/60 = 43/60 = .
b) P(E B) = P(E) + P(B) - P(E _ B) = 16/60 + 20/60 - 6/60 = 30/60 = .5000

c) P(D E) = P(D) + P(E) = 23/60 + 16/60 = 39/60 = .6500
d) P(C F) = P(C) + P(F) - P(C _ F) = 15/60 + 21/60 - 5/60 = 31/60 = .
4.10
a)
b)
c)
d)
4.11
.10
.03
.13
.04
.12
.16
.27
.06
.33
.31
.07
.38
.72
.28
1.00
P(A
P(E
P(B
P(E
F) = P(A) + P(F) - P(A _ F) = .13 + .28 - .03 = .38

B) = P(E) + P(B) - P(E _ B) = .72 + .16 - .04 = .84
C) = P(B) + P(C) =.16 + .33 = .49
F) = P(E) + P(F) = .72 + .28 = 1.000
A = event of having flown in an airplane at least once

T = event of having ridden in a train at least once
P(A) = .47
P(T) = .28
P (ridden either a train or an airplane) =

P(A T) = P(A) + P(T) - P(A _ T) = .47 + .28 - P(A _
T)
Cannot solve this problem without knowing the probability of the intersection.
We need to know the probability of the intersection of A and T, the proportion
who have ridden both or determine if these two events are mutually exclusive.
4.12
P(L) = .75 P(M) = .78 P(M _ L) = .61

a) P(M L) = P(M) + P(L) - P(M _ L) = .78 + .75 - .61 = .92
b) P(M L) but not both = P(M L) - P(M _ L) = .92 - .61 = .31
c) P(NM _ NL) = 1 - P(M L) = 1 - .92 = .08
Note: the neither/nor event is solved for here by taking the complement of the
union.
4.13
Let C = have cable TV

Let T = have 2 or more TV sets
P(C) = .67, P(T) = .74, P(C _ T) = .55
a) P(C T) = P(C) + P(T) - P(C _ T) = .67 + .74 - .55 = .86
b) P(C T but not both) = P(C T) - P(C _ T) = .86 - .55 = .31
c) P(NC _ NT) = 1 - P(C T) = 1 - .86 = .14
d) The special law of addition does not apply because P(C _ T) is not .0000.
Possession of cable TV and 2 or more TV sets are not mutually exclusive.
4.14
Let T = review transcript

F = consider faculty references
P(T) = .54
P(F) = .44
P(T _ F) = .35
a) P(F T) = P(F) + P(T) - P(F _ T) = .44 + .54 - .35 = .63
b) P(F T) - P(F _ T) = .63 - .35 =
.28
c) 1 - P(F T) = 1 - .63 = .37
d)
Faculty
References
Transcript
Y
.35
N
.19
.54
.09
.37
.46
.44
.56
1.00
4.15
C
11
16
40
17
14
21
15
57
a)
b)
c)
d)
P(A _ E) = 16/57 = .2807

P(D _ B) = 3/57 = .0526
P(D _ E) = .0000
P(A _ B) = .0000
4.16
D
.12
.13
.08
.33
.18
.09
.04
.31
.06
.24
.06
.36
.36
.46
.18
1.00
a) P(E _ B) = .09
b) P(C _ F) = .06
c) P(E _ D) = .00
4.17
Let D = Defective part

a) (without replacement)
P(D1 _
D2) = P(D1) P(D2 D1) =
6 5
30
=
= .0122
50 49 2450
b) (with replacement)
P(D1 _
4.18
D2) = P(D1) P(D2) =
6 6
36
=
= .0144
50 50 2500
Let U = Urban
I = care for Ill relatives
P(U) = .78
P(I) = .15
P(IU) = .11
a) P(U _ I) = P(U) P(IU)
P(U _ I) = (.78)(.11) = .0858
10
b) P(U _ NI) = P(U) P(NIU) but P(IU) = .11

So, P(NIU) = 1 - .11 = .89 and
P(U _ NI) = P(U) P(NIU) = (.78)(.89) = .6942
c)
U
Yes
I
No
Yes
No
.15
.85
.78
.22
The answer to a) is found in the YES-YES cell. To compute this cell, take 11%
or .11 of the total (.78) people in urban areas. (.11)(.78) = .0858 which belongs in
the YES-YES" cell. The answer to b) is found in the Yes for U and no for I cell.
It can be determined by taking the marginal, .78, less the answer for a), .0858.
d. P(NU _ I) is found in the no for U column and the yes for I row (1st row and
2nd column). Take the marginal, .15, minus the yes-yes cell, .0858, to get
.0642.
4.19
Let S = stockholder
P(S) = .43
11
Let C = college
P(C) = .37
P(CS) = .75
a) P(NS) = 1 - .43 = .57

b) P(S _ C) = P(S) P(CS) = (.43)(.75) = .3225
c) P(S C) = P(S) + P(C) - P(S _ C) = .43 + .37 - .3225 = .4775
d) P(NS _ NC) = 1 - P(S C) = 1 - .4775 = .5225
e) P(NS NC) = P(NS) + P(NC) - P(NS _ NC) = .57 + .63 - .5225 = .6775
f) P(C _ NS) = P(C) - P(C _ S) = .37 - .3225 = .0475
The matrix:
C
Yes
No
Yes
.3225
.0475
.37
No
.1075
.5225
.63
.43
.57
1.00
4.20
Let F = fax machine
12
Let P = personal computer
Given: P(F) = .10 P(P) = .52

P(PF) = .91
a) P(F _ P) = P(F) P(PF) = (.10)(.91) = .091
b) P(F P) = P(F) + P(P) - P(F _ P) = .10 + .52 - .091 = .529
c) P(F _ NP) = P(F) P(NPF)
Since P(PF) = .91, P(NPF)= 1 - P(PF) = 1 - .91 = .09
P(F _ NP) = (.10)(.09) = .009
d) P(NF _ NP) = 1 - P(F P) = 1 - .529 = .471
e) P(NF _ P) = P(P) - P(F _ P) = .52 - .091 = .429
The matrix:
P
NP
.091
.009
.10
NF
.429
.471
.90
.520
.480
1.00
13
4.21
Let S = safety
Let A = age
P(S) = .30
P(A) = .39
P(AS) = .87
a) P(S _ NA) = P(S) P(NAS)
but P(NAS) = 1 - P(AS) = 1 - .87 = .13
P(S _ NA) = (.30)(.13) = .039
b) P(NS _ NA) = 1 - P(S A) = 1 - [P(S) + P(A) - P(S _ A)]
but P(S _ A) = P(S) P(AS) = (.30)(.87) = .261
P(NS _ NA) = 1 - (.30 + .39 - .261) = .571
c) P(NS _ A) = P(NS) - P(NS _ NA)
but P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .30 = .70
P(NS _ A) = .70 - 571 = .129
The matrix:
A
Yes
No
Yes
.261
.129
.39
No
.039
.571
.61
.30
.70
1.00
4.22
14
Let C = ceiling fans

Let O = outdoor grill
P(C) = .60
P(O) = .29
P(C _ O) = .13
a) P(C O)= P(C) + P(O) - P(C _ O) = .60 + .29 - .13 = .76
b) P(NC _ NO) = 1 - P(C O)= 1 - .76 = .24
c) P(NC _ O) = P(O) - P(C _ O) = .29 - .13 = .16
d) P(C _ NO) = P(C) - P(C _ O) = .60 - .13 = .47
The matrix:
O
Yes
.13
.16
.29
Yes
No
4.23
E
15
12
35
11
17
19
47
21
32
27
80
18
13
12
43
65
74
66
205
a) P(GA) = 8/35 = .2286

b) P(BF) = 17/74 = .2297
c) P(CE) = 21/65 = .3231
d) P(EG) = .0000
No
.47
.24
.71
.60
.40
1.00
15
4.24
C
.36
.44
.80
.11
.09
.20
.47
.53
1.00
a) P(CA) = .36/.80 = .4500

b) P(BD) = .09/.53 = .1698
c) P(AB) = .0000
4.25
Calculator
Computer
Yes
No
Yes
46
49
No
11
15
26
57
18
75
Select a category from each variable and test

P(V1V2) = P(V1).
For example, P(Yes ComputerYes Calculator) = P(Yes Computer)?
46
49
=
?
57
75
.8070 .6533
Since this is one example that the conditional does not equal the marginal in
is matrix, the variable, computer, is not independent of the variable,
calculator.
4.26
Let C = construction
16
Let S = South Atlantic
83,384 total failures

10,867 failures in construction
8,010 failures in South Atlantic
1,258 failures in construction and South Atlantic
a) P(S) = 8,010/83,384 = .09606
b) P(C S) = P(C) + P(S) - P(C _ S) =
10,867/83,384 + 8,010/83,384 - 1,258/83,384 = 17,619/83,384 = .2113
1258
P (C S )
83,384
=
c) P(CS) =
8010 = .15705
P(S )
83,384
1258
P (C S )
83,384
=
d) P(SC) =
10 ,867
P (C )
83,384
e) P(NSNC) =
= .11576
P ( NS NC ) 1 P (C S )
=
P ( NC )
P ( NC )
but NC = 83,384 - 10,867 = 72,517

and P(NC) = 72,517/83,384 = .869675
Therefore, P(NSNC) = (1 - .2113)/(.869675) = .9069
f) P(NSC) =
P ( NS C )
P (C ) P (C S )
=
P (C )
P (C )
but P(C) = 10,867/83,384 = .1303

P(C _ S) = 1,258/83,384 = .0151
Therefore, P(NSC) = (.1303 - .0151)/.1303 = .8842
4.27
17
Let E = Economy
Let Q = Qualified
P(E) = .46
P(Q) = .37
P(E _ Q) = .15
a) P(EQ) = P(E _ Q)/P(Q) = .15/.37 = .4054
b) P(QE) = P(E _ Q)/P(E) = .15/.46 = .3261
c) P(QNE) = P(Q _ NE)/P(NE)
but P(Q _ NE) = P(Q) - P(Q _ E) = .37 - .15 = .22
P(NE) = 1 - P(E) = 1 - .46 = .54
P(QNE) = .22/.54 = .4074
d) P(NE _ NQ) = 1 - P(E Q) = 1 - [P(E) + P(Q) - P(E _ Q)]
= 1 - [.46 + .37 - .15] = 1 - (.68) = .32
The matrix:
Q
Yes
No
Yes
.15
.22
.37
No
.31
.32
.63
.46
.54
1.00
4.28
Let EM = email while on phone
18
Let TD = to-do lists during meetings
P(EM) = .54 P(TDEM) = .20

a) P(EM _ TD) = P(EM) P(TDEM) = (.54)(.20) = .1080
b) P(not TDEM) = 1 - P(TDEM) = 1 - .20 = .80
c) P(not TD _ EM) = P(EM) - P(EM _ TD) = .54 - .1080 = .4320
Could have been worked as: P(not TD _ EM) = P(EM) P(not TDEM) =
(.54)(.80) = .4320
The matrix:
TD
E
M
Yes
No
Yes
.1080
No
.4320
.54
.46
1.00
4.29
19
Let H = hardware
Let S = software
P(H) = .37
P(S) = .54
P(SH) = .97
a) P(NSH) = 1 - P(SH) = 1 - .97 = .03
b) P(SNH) = P(S _ NH)/P(NH)
but P(H _ S) = P(H) P(SH) = (.37)(.97) = .3589
so P(NH _ S) = P(S) - P(H _ S) = .54 - .3589 = .1811
P(NH) = 1 - P(H) = 1 - .37 = .63
P(SNH) = (.1811)/(.63) = .2875
c) P(NHS) = P(NH _ S)/P(S) = .1811//54 = .3354
d) P(NHNS) = P(NH _ NS)/P(NS)
but P(NH _ NS) = P(NH) - P(NH _ S) = .63 - .1811 = .4489
and P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .54 = .46
P(NHNS) = .4489/.46 = .9759
The matrix:
S
Yes
No
Yes
.3589
.1811
.54
No
.0111
.4489
.46
.37
.63
1.00
4.30
20
Let R = agreed or strongly agreed that lack of role models was a barrier
Let S = agreed or strongly agreed that gender-based stereotypes was a barrier
P(R) = .43
P(S) = .46
P(RS) = .77
P(not S) = .54
a.) P(not RS) = 1 - P(RS) = 1 - .77 = .23

b.) P(not SR) = P(not S _ R)/P(R)
but P(S _ R) = P(S) P(RS) = (.46)(.77) = .3542
so P(not S _ R) = P(R) - P(S _ R) = .43 - .3542 = .0758
Therefore, P(not SR) = (.0758)/(.43) = .1763
c.) P(not Rnot S) = P(not R _ not S)/P(not S)
but P(not R _ not S) = P(not S) - P(not S _ R) = .54 - .0758 = .4642
P(not Rnot S) = .4642/.54 = .8596
The matrix:
S
Yes
No
Yes
.3542
.1058
.46
No
.0758
.4642
.54
.43
.57
1.00
4.31
Let A = product produced on Machine A

B = product produces on Machine B
C = product produced on Machine C
D = defective product
P(A) = .10
P(DA) = .05
Event
A
B
C
21
P(B) = .40
P(C) = .50
P(DB) = .12
Prior
Conditional
P(Ei)
.10
.40
.50
P(DEi)
.05
.12
.08
Revise:
Joint
P(D _ Ei)
.005
.048
.040
P(D)=.093
P(AD) = .005/.093 = .0538

P(BD) = .048/.093 = .5161
P(CD) = .040/.093 = .4301
P(DC) = .08
Revised
.005/.093=.0538
.048/.093=.5161
.040/.093=.4301
4.32
Let
22
A = Alex fills the order

B = Alicia fills the order
C = Juan fills the order
I = order filled incorrectly
K = order filled correctly
P(A) = .30
P(B) = .45 P(C) = .25
P(IA) = .20 P(IB) = .12
P(IC) = .05
P(KA) = .80 P(KB) = .88
P(KC) = .95
a) P(B) = .45
b) P(KC) = 1 - P(IC) = 1 - .05 = .95
c)
Event
Prior
Conditional
A
B
C
P(Ei)
.30
.45
.25
P(IEi)
.20
.12
.05
Joint
P(I _ Ei)
.0600
.0540
.0125
P(I)=.1265
Revised
P(EiI)
.0600/.1265=.4743
.0540/.1265=.4269
.0125/.1265=.0988
Revised: P(AI) = .0600/.1265 = .4743

P(BI) = .0540/.1265 = .4269
P(CI) = .0125/.1265 = .0988
d)
Event
Prior
Conditional
A
B
C
P(Ei)
.30
.45
.25
P(KEi)
.80
.88
.95
Joint
P(K _ Ei)
.2400
.3960
.2375
P(K)=.8735
Revised
P(EiK)
.2400/.8735=.2748
.3960/.8735=.4533
.2375/.8735=.2719
4.33
Let
23
T = lawn treated by Tri-state

G = lawn treated by Green Chem
V = very healthy lawn
N = not very healthy lawn
P(T) = .72
P(G) = .28
Event
Prior
Conditional
A
B
P(Ei)
.72
.28
P(VEi)
.30
.20
Revised:
P(VT) = .30
Joint
P(V _ Ei)
.216
.056
P(V)=.272
P(VG) = .20
Revised
P(EiV)
.216/.272=.7941
.056/.272=.2059
P(TV) = .216/.272 = .7941

P(GV) = .056/.272 = .2059
4.34
Let S = small
Let L = large
The prior probabilities are: P(S) = .70

P(TS) = .18
P(TL) = .82
Event
Prior
Conditional
S
L
P(Ei)
.70
.30
P(TEi)
.18
.82
Revised:
P(L) = .30
Joint
P(T _ Ei)
.1260
.2460
P(T)=.3720
P(ST) = .1260/.3720 = .3387

P(LT) = .2460/.3720 = .6613
37.2% offer training since P(T) = .3720,.
Revised
P(EiT)
.1260/.3720 = .3387
.2460/.3720 = .6613
24
4.35
Variable 1
Variable 2
10
20
30
15
20
30
15
45
55
40
95
a) P(E) = 40/95 = .42105

b) P(B D) = P(B) + P(D) - P(B _ D)
= 20/95 + 55/95 - 15/95 = 60/95 = .63158
c) P(A _ E) = 20/95 = .21053
d) P(BE) = 5/40 = .1250
e) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) = 30/95 + 20/95 =
50/95 = .52632
f) P(B _ C) = .0000 (mutually exclusive)
g) P(DC) = 30/45 = .66667
h) P(AB) =
P(A B)
.0 0 0 0
=
= .0000 (A and B are mutually exclusive)
P (B )
2 /0 9 5
i) P(A) = P(AD)??
Does 30/95 = 10/95 ??
Since, .31579 .18182, Variables 1 and 2 are not independent.
25
4.36
12
31
22
10
25
21
18
16
23
78
a) P(F _ A) = 7/78 = .08974

b) P(AB) =
P(A B)
.0 0 0 0
=
= .0000 (A and B are mutually exclusive)
P (B )
2 /2 7 8
c) P(B) = 22/78 = .28205

d) P(E _ F) = .0000 Mutually Exclusive
e) P(DB) = 8/22 = .36364
f) P(BD) = 8/21 = .38095
g) P(D C) = 21/78 + 25/78 10/78 = 36/78 = .4615
h) P(F) = 16/78 = .20513
26
4.37
Age(years)
Gender
86
<35
35-44
45-54
55-64
>65
Male
.11
.20
.19
.12
.16
.78
Female
.07
.08
.04
.02
.01
.22
.18
.28
.23
.14
.17
1.00
a) P(35-44) = .28
b) P(Woman _ 45-54) = .04
c) P(Man 35-44) = P(Man) + P(35-44) - P(Man _ 35-44) = .78 + .28 - .20 = .
d) P(<35 55-64) = P(<35) + P(55-64) = .18 + .14 = .32
e) P(Woman45-54) = P(Woman _ 45-54)/P(45-54) = .04/.23= .1739
f) P(not W _ not 55-64) = .11 + .20 + .19 + .16 = .66
4.38
Let T = thoroughness
P(T) = .78
P(K) = .40
27
Let K = knowledge
P(T _ K) = .27
a) P(T K) = P(T) + P(K) - P(T _ K) =

.78 + .40 - .27 = .91
b) P(NT _ NK) = 1 - P(T K) = 1 - .91 = .09
c) P(KT) = P(K _ T)/P(T) = .27/.78 = .3462
d) P(NT _ K) = P(NT) - P(NT _ NK)
but P(NT) = 1 - P(T) = .22
P(NT _ K) = .22 - .09 = .13
The matrix:
K
Yes
No
Yes
.27
.13
.40
No
.51
.09
.60
.78
.22
1.00
4.39
28
Let R = retirement
Let L = life insurance
P(R) = .42
P(R _ L) = .33
P(L) = .61
a) P(RL) = P(R _ L)/P(L) = .33/.61 = .5410

b) P(LR) = P(R _ L)/P(R) = .33/.42 = .7857
c) P(L R) = P(L) + P(R) - P(L _ R) = .61 + .42 - .33 = .70
d) P(R _ NL) = P(R) - P(R _ L) = .42 - .33 = .09
e) P(NLR) = P(NL _ R)/P(R) = .09/.42 = .2143
The matrix:
L
Yes
No
Yes
.33
.28
.61
No
.09
.30
.39
.42
.58
1.00
4.40
P(T) = .16 P(TW) = .20

P(W) = .21 P(NE) = .20
29
P(TNE) = .17
a) P(W _ T) = P(W) P(TW) = (.21)(.20) = .042

b) P(NE _ T) = P(NE) P(TNE) = (.20)(.17) = .034
c) P(WT) = P(W _ T)/P(T) = (.042)/(.16) = .2625
d) P(NENT) = P(NE _ NT)/P(NT) = {P(NE) P(NTNE)}/P(NT)
but P(NTNE) = 1 - P(TNE) = 1 - .17 = .83 and
P(NT) = 1 - P(T) = 1 - .16 = .84
Therefore, P(NENT) = {P(NE) P(NTNE)}/P(NT) =
{(.20)(.83)}/(.84) = .1976
e) P(not W _ not NET) = P(not W _ not NE _ T)/ P(T)
but P(not W _ not NE _ T) =
.16 - P(W _ T) - P(NE _ T) = .16 - .042 - .034 = .084
P(not W _ not NE _ T)/ P(T) = (.084)/(.16) = .525
4.41
Let M = MasterCard
30
A = American Express
P(M) = .30
P(A) = .20
P(V) = .25
P(M _ A) = .08
P(V _ M) = .12
V = Visa
P(A _ V) = .06
a) P(V A) = P(V) + P(A) - P(V _ A) = .25 + .20 - .06 = .39

b) P(VM) = P(V _ M)/P(M) = .12/.30 = .40
c) P(MV) = P(V _ M)/P(V) = .12/.25 = .48
d) P(V) = P(VM)??
.25 .40
Possession of Visa is not independent of possession of MasterCard
e) American Express is not mutually exclusive of Visa
because P(A _ V) .0000
4.42
Let S = believe SS secure

<45 = under 45 years old
31
N = don't believe SS will be secure

>45 = 45 or more years old
P(N) = .51
Therefore, P(S) = 1 - .51 = .49
P(<45) = .57
P(> 45) = .43
P(S>45) = .70
Therefore, P(N>45) = 1 - P(S>45) = 1 - .70 = .30
a) P(>45) = 1 - P(<45) = 1 - .57 = .43
b) P(<45 _ S) = P(S) - P(>45 _ S) =
but P(> 45 _ S) = P(> 45) P(S> 45) = (.43)(.70) = .301
P(<45 _ S) = P(S) - P(>45 _ S) = .49 - .301 = .189
c) P(>45S) = P(>45 _ S)/P(S) = .189/.49 = .6143
d) (<45 N) = P(<45) + P(N) - P(<45 _ N) =
but P(<45 _ N) = P(<45) - P(<45 _ S) = .57 - .189 = .381
so P(<45 N) = .57 + .51 - .381 = .699
Probability Matrix Solution for Problem 4.42:
S
<45
.189
.381
.57
>45
.301
.129
.43
.490
.510
1.00
4.43
32
Let M = expect to save more

R = expect to reduce debt
NM = don't expect to save more
NR = don't expect to reduce debt
P(M) = .43
P(R) = .45
P(RM) = .81
P(NRM) = 1 - P(RM) = 1 - .81 = .19
P(NM) = 1 - P(M) = 1 - .43 = .57
P(NR) = 1 - P(R) = 1 - .45 = .55
a) P(M _ R) = P(M) P(RM) = (.43)(.81) = .3483
b) P(M R) = P(M) + P(R) - P(M _ R)
= .43 + .45 - .3483 = .5317
c) P(neither save nor reduce debt) =
1 - P(M R) = 1 - .5317 = .4683
d) P(M _ NR) = P(M) P(NRM) = (.43)(.19) = .0817
Probability matrix for problem 4.43:
Reduce
Save
Yes
No
Yes
.3483
.0817
.43
No
.1017
.4683
.57
.45
.55
1.00
4.44
33
Let R = read
Let B = checked in the with boss
P(R) = .40
P(B) = .34
P(BR) = .78
a) P(B _ R) = P(R) P(BR) = (.40)(.78) = .312

b) P(NR _ NB) = 1 - P(R B)
but P(R B) = P(R) + P(B) - P(R _ B) =
.40 + .34 - .312 = .428
P(NR _ NB) = 1 - .428 = .572
c) P(RB) = P(R _ B)/P(B) = (.312)/(.34) = .9176
d) P(NBR) = 1 - P(BR) = 1 - .78 = .22
e) P(NBNR) = P(NB _ NR)/P(NR)
but P(NR) = 1 - P(R) = 1 - .40 = .60
P(NBNR) = .572/.60 = .9533
f) Probability matrix for problem 4.44:
B
NB
.312
.088
.40
NR
.028
.572
.60
.34
.66
1.00
4.45
34
Let Q = keep quiet when they see co-worker misconduct

Let C = call in sick when they are well
P(Q) = .35
P(NQ) = 1 - .35 = .65
P(CQ) = .75 P(QC) = .40
a) P(C _ Q) = P(Q) P(CQ) = (.35)(.75) = .2625
b) P(Q C) = P(Q) + P(C) - P(C _ Q)
but P(C) must be solved for:
P(C _ Q) = P(C) P(QC)
.2625 = P(C) ( .40)
Therefore, P(C) = .2625/.40 = .65625
and P(Q C) = .35 + .65626 - .2625 = .74375
c) P(NQC) = P(NQ _ C)/P(C)
but P(NQ _ C) = P(C) - P(C _ Q) = .65625 - .2625 = ..39375
Therefore, P(NQC) = P(NQ _ C)/P(C) = .39375/.65626 = .60
d) P(NQ _ NC) = 1 - P(Q C) = 1 - .74375 = .25625
e) P(Q _ NC) = P(Q) - P(Q _ C) = .35 - .2625 = .0875
C
.2625
.0875
.35
.39375
.25625
.65
.65625
.34375
1.00
4.46
35
Let: D = denial
I = inappropriate
C = customer
P = payment dispute
S = specialty
G = delays getting care
R = prescription drugs
P(D) = .17
P(I) = .14
P(C) = .14
P(P) = .11
P(S) = .10
P(G) = .08
P(R) = .07
a) P(P S) = P(P) + P(S) = .11 + .10 = .21
b) P(R _ C) = .0000 (mutually exclusive)
c) P(IS) = P(I _ S)/P(S) = .0000/.10 = .0000
d) P(NG _ NP) = 1 - P(G P) = 1 - [P(G) + P(P)] =
1 [.08 + .11] = 1 - .19 = .81
4.47
36
Let R = retention
Let P = process improvement
P(R) = .56
P(P _ R) = .36
P(RP) = .90
a) P(R _ NP) = P(R) - P(P _ R) = .56 - .36 = .20
b) P(PR) = P(P _ R)/P(R) = .36/.56 = .6429
c) P(P) = ??
Solve P(RP) = P(R _ P)/P(P) for P(P):
P(P) = P(R _ P)/P(RP) = .36/.90 = .40
d) P(R P) = P(R) + P(P) - P(R _ P) =
.56 + .40 - .36 = .60
e) P(NR _ NP) = 1 - P(R P) = 1 - .60 = .40
f) P(RNP) = P(R _ NP)/P(NP)
but P(NP) = 1 - P(P) = 1 - .40 = .60
P(RNP) = .20/.60 = .3333
P
and
.36
.20
.56
.04
.40
.44
.40
.60
1.00
Note: In constructing the matrix, we are given P(R) = .56, P(P _ R) = .36,
P(RP) = .90. That is, only one marginal probability is given.
From P(R), we can get P(NR) by taking 1 - .56 = .44.
However, only these two marginal values can be computed directly.
To solve for P(P), using what is given, since we know that 90% of P lies
in the intersection and that the intersection is .36, we can set up an
equation to solve for P:
.90P = .36
Solving for P = .40.
4.48
37
Let M = mail
Let S = sales
P(M) = .38 P(M _ S) = .0000 P(NM _ NS) = .41
a) P(M _ NS) = P(M) - P(M _ S) = .38 - .00 = .38
b) Because P(M _ S) = .0000, P(M S) = P(M) + P(S)
Therefore, P(S) = P(M S) - P(M)
but P(M S) = 1 - P(NM _ NS) = 1 - .41 = .59
Thus, P(S) = P(M S) - P(M) = .59 - .38 = .21
c) P(SM) = P(S _ M)/P(M) = .0000/.38 = .0000
d) P(NMNS) = P(NM _ NS)/P(NS) = .41/.79 = .5190
where: P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .21 = .79
S
.0000
.38
.38
.21
.41
.62
.21
.79
1.00
4.49
38
Let F = Flexible Work

Let V = Gives time off for Volunteerism
P(F) = .41
P(VNF) = .10
P(VF) = .60
from this, P(NF) = 1 - .41 = .59
a) P(F V) = P(F) + P(V) - P(F _ V)
P(F) = .41 and P(F _ V) = P(F) P(VF) = (.41)(.60) = .246
Find P(V) by using P(V) = P(F _ V) + P(NF _ V)
but P(NF _ V) = P(NF) P(VNF) = (.59)(.10) = .059
so, P(V) = P(F _ V) + P(NF _ V) = .246 + .059 = .305
and P(F V) = P(F) + P(V) - P(F _ V) = .41 + .305 - .246 = .469
b) P(F _ NV) = P(F) - P(F _ V) = .41 - .246 = .164
c) P(FNV) = P(F _ NV)/P(NV)
P(F _ NV) = .164
P(NV) = 1 P(V) = 1 - .305 = .695.
P(FNV) = P(F _ NV)/P(NV) = .164/.695 = .2360
d) P(NFV) = P(NF _ V)/P(V) = .059/.305 = .1934
e) P(NF NV) = P(NF) + P(NV) - P(NF _ NV)
P(NF) = .59 P(NV) = .695
Solve for P(NF _ NV) = P(NV) P(F _ NV) = .695 - .164 = .531
P(NF NV) = P(NF) + P(NV) - P(NF _ NV) = .59 + .695 - .531 = .754
V
.246
.164
.41
.059
.531
.59
.305
.695
1.00
4.50
Event
Let S = Sarabia
Let T = Tran
Let J = Jackson
P(S) = .41
P(BS) = .05
P(T) = .32
P(BT) = .08
P(J) = .27
P(BJ) = .06
Prior
Conditional
P(Ei)
.41
.32
.27
S
T
J
4.51
39
P(BEi)
.05
.08
.06
Let R = regulations
Joint
P(B _ Ei)
Let B = blood test
Revised
P(BiNS)
.3291
.4109
.2600
.0205
.0256
.0162
P(B) = .0623
T = tax burden
P(R) = .30
P(T) = .35
P(TR) = .71
a) P(R _ T) = P(R) P(TR) = (.30)(.71) = .2130
b) P(R T) = P(R) + P(T) - P(R _ T) =
.30 + .35 - .2130 = .4370
c) P(R T) - P(R _ T) = .4370 - .2130 = .2240
d) P(RT) = P(R _ T)/P(T) = .2130/.35 = .6086
e) P(NRT) = 1 - P(RT) = 1 - .6086 = .3914
f) P(NRNT) = P(NR _ NT)/P(NT) = [1 - P(R T)]/P(NT) =
(1 - .4370)/.65 = .8662
T
.213
.087
.30
.137
.563
.70
.35
.65
1.00
40
4.52
Event
Prior
Conditional
Joint
P(RB _ Ei)
0-24
P(Ei)
.353
P(RBEi)
.11
25-34
.142
.24
.03408
35-44
.160
.27
.04320
> 45
.345
.39
.13455
.03883
Revised
P(EiRB)
.03883/.25066 = .
15491
.03408/.25066 = .
13596
.04320/.25066 = .
17235
.13455/.25066 = .
53678
P(RB) = .25066
4.53
Let GH = Good health

P(GH) = .29
Let HM = Happy marriage

P(HM) = .21
Let FG = Faith in God
P(FG) = .40
a) P(HM FG) = P(HM) + P(FG) - P(HM _ FG)

but P(HM _ FG) = .0000
P(HM FG) = P(HM) + P(FG) = .21 + .40 = .61
b) P(HM FG GH) = P(HM) + P(FG) + P(GH) =
.29 + .21 + .40 = .9000
c) P(FG _ GH) = .0000
The categories are mutually exclusive.
The respondent could not select more than one answer.
d) P(neither FG nor GH nor HM) = 1 - P(HM FG GH) = 1 - .9000 = .1000

Ken Black QA 5th Chapter 4 Solution

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Ken Black QA 5th Chapter 4 Solution

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Chapter 4: Probability

Comprehend the different ways of assigning probability.

CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY

In teaching students how to construct a probability matrix, emphasize that it is

Methods of Assigning Probabilities

Marginal, Union, Joint, and Conditional Probabilities

Revision of Probabilities: Bayes' Rule

SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 4

Enumeration of the six parts: D1, D2, D3, A4, A5, A6

There are 15 members of the sample space

X = {1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9}, Y = {2, 4, 7, 9}, and Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 7,}

Enumeration of the six parts: D1, D2, A1, A2, A3, A4

Probability that one of three is defective is:

107 = 10,000,000 different numbers

It is assumed here that 6 different (without replacement) employees are to be

P(A) = .10, P(B) = .12, P(C) = .21, P(A _

C) = .10 + .21 - .05 = .26

b) P(B C) = P(B) + P(C) - P(B _ C) = .12 + .21 - .03 = .30

a) P(A D) = P(A) + P(D) - P(A _

D) = 25/60 + 23/60 - 5/60 = 43/60 = .

b) P(E B) = P(E) + P(B) - P(E _ B) = 16/60 + 20/60 - 6/60 = 30/60 = .5000

F) = P(A) + P(F) - P(A _ F) = .13 + .28 - .03 = .38

A = event of having flown in an airplane at least once

P (ridden either a train or an airplane) =

P(L) = .75 P(M) = .78 P(M _ L) = .61

Let C = have cable TV

Let T = review transcript

P(A _ E) = 16/57 = .2807

Let D = Defective part

D2) = P(D1) P(D2 D1) =

D2) = P(D1) P(D2) =

b) P(U _ NI) = P(U) P(NIU) but P(IU) = .11

a) P(NS) = 1 - .43 = .57

Let F = fax machine

Let P = personal computer

Given: P(F) = .10 P(P) = .52

Let C = ceiling fans

a) P(GA) = 8/35 = .2286

a) P(CA) = .36/.80 = .4500

Select a category from each variable and test

Let S = South Atlantic

83,384 total failures

but NC = 83,384 - 10,867 = 72,517

but P(C) = 10,867/83,384 = .1303

Let EM = email while on phone

Let TD = to-do lists during meetings

P(EM) = .54 P(TDEM) = .20

a.) P(not RS) = 1 - P(RS) = 1 - .77 = .23

Let A = product produced on Machine A

P(AD) = .005/.093 = .0538

A = Alex fills the order

Revised: P(AI) = .0600/.1265 = .4743

T = lawn treated by Tri-state

P(TV) = .216/.272 = .7941

The prior probabilities are: P(S) = .70

P(ST) = .1260/.3720 = .3387

37.2% offer training since P(T) = .3720,.

a) P(E) = 40/95 = .42105

a) P(F _ A) = 7/78 = .08974

c) P(B) = 22/78 = .28205

a) P(T K) = P(T) + P(K) - P(T _ K) =

Let L = life insurance