Bluefin Writeup

PIVOTAL
Pivotal Research Group
U.S. Equity Research

Internet / Advertising
Feb. 8, 2013
Madison & Wall

Conversations About Twitter And Nielsen

Earlier in the week, the agency and media world was more than a little interested to
learn that Twitter purchased a small company called Bluefin Labs. We think the
transaction is notable given recent announcements from Twitter and Nielsen for what it
means around Nielsens endeavors in social media analytics in the near term, but also
for what it means around Twitters ability to capture a growing share of marketers digital
budgets.
Brian Wieser, CFA

212-514-4682
brian@pvtl.com
Media Agencies: Structure As Strategy

Over the past week, IPGs Mediabrands announced a significant overhaul of its senior
management team and its organizational structure. The change can be viewed as
favorable for the division and its parent company not only because of the new
individuals coming aboard (whom we regard very highly), but also because the new
structure appears to better mirror the manner in which marketers make their budgeting
decisions at a country or regional level, rather than at a global one. Investors and
other observers may not pay much mind to such news beyond the personalities
involved, but corporate structure can make a significant difference in business
outcomes, driving as it does the potential for market share, growth in revenues and
profits.
Pivotals US Advertising Forecast And Comparables

We include updated trading data of our coverage universe in this report as well as our
forecasts for advertising in the United States.
853 Broadway, Suite 1406

Important Disclosures Are Located In The Appendix
New York, NY 10003
Media Agencies: Structure As Strategy

Over the past week, IPGs Mediabrands announced a significant overhaul of its senior
management team and its organizational structure. The change can be viewed as favorable for the
division and its parent company not only because of the new individuals coming aboard (whom
we regard very highly), but also because the new structure appears to better mirror the manner in
which marketers make their budgeting decisions at a country or regional level, rather than at a
global one. Investors and other observers may not pay much mind to such news beyond the
personalities involved, but corporate structure can make a significant difference in business
outcomes, driving as it does the potential for market share, growth in revenues and profits.
When the news broke that a couple of key executives were leaving as heads of domestic oprations at
Mediabrands UM and Initiative, that their global heads were shifting to client-centric, regionally oriented
roles and that two other individuals were shifting internally to become new global CEOs of the agencies,
our first reaction was that something must be going wrong to have merited such a change. Who
makes such a management shake-up when things are going well? we thought. Mediabrands accounts
for around 20% of IPG revenues and we believe its profit margins are typical for media agency groups, or
in the 20% range. This means that Mediabrands by itself probably generates around 40% of IPGs
operating profit, and so concerns at Mediabrands would be concerns for IPG at this point in time.
But our initial reaction was quickly corrected. What got us positive on the change was when we read
the following in the UKs Campaign magazine: (new Initiative CEO Jim) Elms and (new UM CEO Daryl)
Lee will focus on product, proposition and process development within their agency networks, while
(former Initiative CEO and now Mediabrands G14 Markets head Jim) Hytner and (former UM CEO, now
Mediabrands North America head Jacki) Kelley will have profit-and-loss accountability for all agencies
and propositions in their geographical area.
Advertising agency-related businesses are notoriously difficult to manage. Because so many
individuals have so many relationships at so many levels with the primary client decision-makers,
because of matrixed reporting structures and because the product being sold is a person or group of
people applying a process rather than a thing, conventional command and control to drive a
company towards corporate objectives is hard to employ. However, a CEOs ability to provide
staff with resources (whether personal or professional) makes a big difference. Thus, profit and loss
ownership and incentive structures that flow from P&L control make a substantial difference in focusing
managers around profitability. The question is always where to put that P&L ownership, and historically
agencies have placed that ownership with the global CEOs of the companys operating brands. However,
Mediabrands made its change in part because of the companys success in markets where Mediabrands
had regional CEOs owning the P&L covering an array of agency services.
For example, in Australia the local head of Mediabrands oversees operations for each of three media
agencies and business brands which are present around the world. In addition, the unit operates a lowcost creative agency (Airborne) and has bought a mobile marketing firm (MNet). Our understanding is
that this unit has performed very well as a result of the structure. Where a clients marketing and agency
services budget is managed at the country level such a media agency will be better-positioned to capture
a growing share of wallet from the marketer. This goes back to a bigger point weve been arguing
around agency organic growth: new account wins are but one way to drive top-line organic growth.
Improving existing client revenues or profitability is often more important.
This structure should work particularly well for IPG given that Mediabrands agencies presently serves
few clients on a global basis, and has sometimes struggled to add new ones in recent years. More
importantly (or perhaps as a cause of this), data we have studied in the past suggests that global
marketers have shifted away from single country agencies and towards those operating at a global level,
yet make assignments on a country or regional basis. Towards those ends, both units should benefit as
world-class teams and world-class tools will continue to ensure that Mediabrands teams will be included
in those pitches. And to the extent that the new structure allows the company to better marshall resources
at the level at which agency contracts are awarded willl make Mediabrands all the better for it.
-2-
Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Earlier in the week, the agency and media world was more than a little interested to learn that
Twitter purchased a small company called Bluefin Labs. We think the transaction is notable given
recent announcements from Twitter and Nielsen for what it means around Nielsens endeavors in
social media analytics in the near term, but also for what it means around Twitters ability to
capture a growing share of marketers digital budgets.
Over the course of the past few years, Bluefin established itself as one of the dominant companies
in the fledgling social TV analytics space, increasingly relied upon for its tools used to inform
programming decisions and advertiser budgeting decisions. The product facilitated monitoring of
consumer conversations around advertisement and program airings. Outputs could serve as a tiebreaker for TV planning choices for some brands, informing a buyer why they would prefer to include one
program vs. another in a schedule to advertisements, and offered feedback about consumer engagement
to networks and program producers.
During much of the same time, Twitter was continuing to make progress penetrating agencies and
advertisers. While the companys set of large brand-centric advertisers has grown, we believe it has
remained relatively narrow, with clients at each agency who use Twitter perhaps spending tens of
thousands of dollars per year (although certainly a smaller number across the industry spending
hundreds of thousands of dollars per year) for what we imagine is a relatively modest base of revenue.
Despite this, Twitter was increasingly becoming a key performance indicator of choice for many
advertisers, even if budgets on Twitter itself were small. Our understanding is that much of the agency
world might not have connected social activity to brand goals, but instead considered it a simple proxy for
success. Nonetheless, the sheer size of Twitters user base and its importance in driving dialog around
brands (and, no less, social movements) was sustaining expectations for eventual scale as an advertising
vehicle among many observers.
Meanwhile, over at Nielsen, in November of last year that companys jointly (with McKinsey) owned NM
Incite purchased a competitor of Bluefins called Social Guide in order to allow Nielsen and NM
Incite to better quantify the relationship between social media and TV in order to establish new
research metrics on consumer behavior and marketing outcomes. Much of the data that NM Incite was
aiming to monitor and analyze originated with Twitter. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Nielsen and Twitter
subsequently made an announcement themselves, that the two companies would establish a
syndicated metric called Nielsen Twitter TV Ratings, measuring the reach of the TV conversation on
Twitter, with commercial availability scheduled for the start of the 2013-14 TV season. This initiative was
intended to complement existing TV ratings and build on top of the audience engagement platform that
Social Guide developed inside off NM Incite.
Given all of this, we, and evidently others in the industry were perhaps somewhat confused by
Twitters purchase and subsequent announcement to cease selling to new customers of
Bluefin. What exactly did this mean for Twitters relationship with Nielsen? What did it mean about
Twitters intentions around advertising in general? In their words, Twitter stated that Bluefins data
science capabilities and social TV expertise will help us create innovative new ad products and consumer
experiences in the exciting intersection of Twitter and TV and that it would plan to collaborate closely
with Nielsen and SocialGuide on product development and research to help brands, agencies, and
networks fully understand the combined value of Twitter and TV. Much of the industry (or perhaps the
industrys research professionals) are by nature and necessity highly skeptical of the claims their vendors
make. This leads to much speculation and gossip in the industry, and thus many of the researchers we
interact were unlikely to take statements made by Nielsen or Twitter at face value.
Where we are certain is as follows: we have come to appreciate that Twitter is, of course working, on
efforts and developing tools that allow them to capture a greater share of advertiser budgets, and
-3-
this initiative should be viewed in that light. Further, we believe that the more that Twitter pushes
into TV-related activities and maintains Nielsen as a partner, the more that Nelsen remains at the
forefront of measuring activity associated with TV (i.e. including consumer chatter, which is poorly
measured on the street and inside of homes, but better measured on the web through sites including
Twitter and Facebook). Nielsen may even make more money as Social Guides competitive position
improved with the removal of a big competitor from the market. Twitter will also continue to better facilitate
trusted third party measurement of social media in general.
But further into the future is where the speculation will lie. Will Twitter try to sell data to agencies
once again at some point in the future (much to Nielsens chagrin)? Will it aggressively (and fruitlessly)
chase large brands for their television budgets, in competition with the networks who drive so much
traffic, and possibly will buy advertising from Twitter? This is all possible, but also entirely speculative.
The chances that TV budgets will flow to Twitter as advertisers become better acquainted with the
intersection of social media and television are low, as digital budgets and TV budgets will remain discrete.
However, we see the chances of creating a competing data product (possibly a free one, much as Google
provides a range of planning tools) in the future as somewhat higher.
But the efforts the two companies will make in this space in the near future provides us with much more
certainty that Twitter will increase its relevance to large brands and help it get on media plans one
way or another. Thus the most important outcome from Twitters actions is that they will help the
company maintain relevance to large advertisers, and increasingly important part of advertisers budgetsetting conversations just as they continue to expand the very consumer conversations they will now be
better able to monitor and analyze today.
-4-
Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Trading Multiples and Targets
Trading Multiples
Nielsen
Interpublic
Omnicom
Publicis
WPP
CBS
Viacom
Discovery
Google
Facebook
Yahoo
Target EV/EBITDA
2012
2013
12.0x
10.9x
7.1x
6.5x
8.4x
7.8x
10.3x
9.0x
8.1x
7.6x
9.6x
9.6x
11.3x
10.4x
15.4x
13.3x
48.4x
39.2x
69.1x
29.5x
1.1x
4.3x
Current EV/EBITDA
2012
2013
12.0x
10.8x
5.4x
5.0x
7.6x
7.0x
10.3x
9.0x
8.9x
8.3x
8.1x
8.1x
9.1x
8.4x
15.0x
13.0x
45.1x
36.6x
53.1x
22.6x
0.7x
2.5x
Target EV/FCF
2012
2013
42.5x
30.1x
-48.7x
17.6x
18.5x
16.2x
19.5x
49.6x
40.6x
16.1x
17.0x
16.2x
13.1x
18.8x
46.9x
29.5x
78.0x
19.0x
-362.7x
45.3x
1.7x
11.4x
Current EV/FCF
2012
2013
42.4x
29.9x
-37.0x
13.4x
16.8x
14.6x
19.4x
49.5x
44.5x
17.7x
14.4x
13.8x
10.6x
15.2x
45.7x
28.8x
72.8x
17.7x
-278.8x
34.8x
1.0x
6.5x
Target P/E
2012
2013
36.2x
26.7x
20.2x
18.7x
16.9x
14.6x
15.5x
13.8x
15.4x
13.9x
20.5x
17.5x
18.1x
16.0x
27.7x
22.0x
25.3x
24.3x
1362.6x
93.6x
7.0x
19.8x
Current P/E
2012
2013
35.9x
26.5x
16.3x
15.1x
15.0x
13.0x
15.6x
13.9x
17.1x
15.4x
17.1x
14.6x
13.8x
12.2x
26.8x
21.3x
23.9x
23.0x
1084.4x
74.5x
6.2x
17.4x
FCF = Net Income + D&A + Stock-Based Comp + Excess Tax Benefits + Pension Contributions - CapEx/M&A - Change in W/C + Other Recurring Cash Changes
Target Price And Related Metrics

Nielsen
Interpublic
Near-Term 2012-2017 Growth Rate

4.8%
Long-Term Perpetual Growth Rate
4.0%
Near-Term 2012-2017 Discount Rate
7.0%
Cost of Equity
9.0%
Beta Equivalent
1.20
Long-Term Perpetual Discount Rate
10.5%
Long-Term Perpetual Discount Rate Spread Vs. Near-Term
3.5%
Enterprise Value (PV of Cashflows + TV)
2013E Cash + Marketable Securities
Other Asset Values
Value of Cashflows, Cash, Other Assets
Debt
Preferred Stock
Target Price Equity Value
$17,703.7
1,074.2
0.0
18,777.9
(6,397.0)
0.0
12,380.9
4.9%
4.0%
9.3%
11.3%
1.60
13.8%
4.5%
$6,265.2
2,057.1
0.0
8,322.3
(1,600.5)
0.0
6,721.8
Omnicom
4.9%
4.5%
7.6%
9.0%
1.20
11.6%
4.0%
Publicis
7.1%
4.5%
8.0%
8.5%
WPP
CBS
Viacom
Discovery
Google
Facebook
12.0%
4.0%
5.8%
4.5%
8.1%
9.6%
1.30
11.6%
3.5%
1.8%
4.5%
9.5%
10.9%
1.50
13.0%
3.5%
6.3%
4.5%
7.6%
9.0%
1.20
11.6%
4.0%
10.5%
5.5%
6.4%
7.3%
0.90
10.4%
4.0%
15.8%
6.0%
7.8%
7.9%
1.00
11.3%
3.5%
26.2%
7.0%
7.2%
7.3%
0.90
11.2%
4.0%
$17,478.7 10,502.3
2,484.9
1,253.4
0.0
272.0
19,963.6
12,027.6
(4,462.0)
(1,043.0)
0.0
0.0
15,501.6
10,984.6
13,651.0
2,200.2
300.0
16,151.1
(3,964.1)
0.0
12,187.0
$33,658.5
1,436.9
5,000.0
40,095.4
(8,619.0)
0.0
31,476.4
$44,123.7
(2.7)
500.0
44,621.0
(8,871.0)
0.0
35,750.0
$31,185.2
688.7
890.0
32,763.9
(6,989.0)
0.0
25,774.9
$214,374.7
59,364.7
8,000.0
281,739.5
(5,537.0)
0.0
276,202.5
$81,979.1
11,435.3
0.0
93,414.4
(1,500.0)
0.0
91,914.4
Yahoo
-0.4%
2.0%
7.3%
7.3%
0.90
11.8%
4.5%
$6,718.8
3,895.3
13,766.5
24,380.5
0.0
0.0
24,380.5
2013E Shares
376.4
432.3
255.5
226.6
1,347.4
619.0
465.1
354.0
338.4
2,546.0
1,058.3
Target Stock Price
33.00
15.00
61.00
48.00
900.0
51.00
77.00
73.00
820.00
36.00
23.00
Target Vs. Current Price
Rating
Current Stock Price
Current Stock Price Implied Equity Value
Current Stock Price Implied Enterprise Value
1%
24%
12%
-1%
-10%
20%
31%
3%
6%
26%
13%
HOLD
32.71
12,312.4
17,635.2
BUY
12.08
5,222.2
4,765.6
BUY
54.25
13,860.9
15,838.0
HOLD
48.36
10,958.3
10,475.9
HOLD
1,001.0
13,487.5
14,951.4
BUY
42.50
26,307.5
28,489.6
BUY
58.89
27,389.7
35,763.4
HOLD
70.62
24,999.5
30,409.8
HOLD
773.95
261,876.0
200,048.3
BUY
28.65
72,942.9
63,007.6
BUY
20.32
21,505.4
3,843.6
Source: Pivotal Research
-5-
Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Operating Metrics

Operating Metrics
Nielsen
REVENUE
2012
2013
2013 Growth
2017
4-Year CAGR
EBIT
2012
2013
2013 Growth
2017
4-Year CAGR
EBIT MARGINS
2012
2013
2017
EBITDA
2012
2013
2013 Growth
2017
$5,594.3
5,721.7
2.3%
7,079.2
Interpublic
Omnicom
Publicis
WPP
$6,928.1
7,117.0
$14,203.3
14,747.7
6,587.3
7,238.5
9,570.0
9,940.7
2.7%
8,797.9
5.5%
950.5
1,097.7
5.4%
687.6
747.2
15.5%
1,628.0
8.7%
1,275.5
3.8%
18,001.5
9.9%
9,269.6
5.1%
1,802.3
1,960.2
8.8%
2,790.2
6.4%
1,164.7
1,316.5
13.0%
1,871.3
3.9%
12,695.4
6.3%
1,292.0
1,401.6
8.5%
2,094.7
CBS
Viacom
$14,673.5
13,594.1
$13,249.0
13,925.7
-7.4%
16,013.8
4.2%
2,975.9
3,189.5
7.2%
4,564.2
5.1%
17,957.3
6.6%
3,682.0
4,018.0
9.1%
5,177.6
Discovery
$4,533.6
5,383.6
18.7%
7,465.7
8.5%
1,915.0
2,213.0
15.6%
3,440.5
Google
$46,040.0
55,483.7
20.5%
95,868.4
14.7%
13,835.0
14,643.5
5.8%
15,832.5
Facebook
$5,089.0
6,850.9
34.6%
16,303.4
24.2%
538.0
1,633.0
203.5%
4,813.6
Yahoo
$4,986.8
4,955.4
-0.6%
4,876.5
-0.4%
5,214.4
901.4
-82.7%
936.2
10.4%
14.3%
9.2%
9.2%
10.6%
9.4%
6.5%
11.7%
2.0%
31.0%
1.0%
17%
19%
23%
10%
10%
14%
13%
13%
16%
18%
18%
20%
14%
14%
17%
20%
23%
29%
28%
29%
29%
42%
41%
46%
30%
26%
17%
11%
24%
30%
105%
18%
19%
1,472.5
1,626.7
885.6
961.2
10.5%
2,093.0
8.5%
1,460.5
2,082.9
2,250.2
8.0%
3,140.2
1,014.7
1,161.5
14.5%
1,696.3
1,683.0
1,803.6
7.2%
2,540.7
3,500.9
3,509.5
0.2%
4,804.2
3,913.0
4,251.0
8.6%
5,404.6
2,025.5
2,338.0
15.4%
3,568.5
4,433.5
5,472.9
23.4%
11,301.1
1,187.0
2,783.0
134.5%
6,513.6
5,869.0
1,561.4
-73.4%
1,636.2
4-Year CAGR
6.5%
11.0%
8.7%
9.9%
8.9%
8.2%
6.2%
11.2%
19.9%
23.7%
1.2%
EBITDA MARGINS
2012
2013
2017
26%
28%
30%
13%
14%
17%
15%
15%
17%
15%
16%
18%
18%
18%
20%
24%
26%
30%
30%
31%
30%
45%
43%
48%
10%
10%
12%
23%
41%
40%
118%
32%
34%
FREE CASHFLOW (ex "Other" Changes)

2012
2013
2013 Growth
2017
4-Year CAGR
FREE CASHFLOW MARGINS

2012
2013
2017
NET INCOME
2012
2013
2017
NET INCOME MARGINS
2012
2013
2017
416.4
588.8
(128.7)
355.2
41.4%
957.5
-376.0%
703.4
943.6
1,081.6
14.6%
1,411.9
539.1
211.7
336.3
846.2
-60.7%
151.6%
1,009.1
1,134.5
1,985.2
2,071.8
4.4%
2,555.6
3,378.0
2,347.7
-30.5%
3,023.2
665.3
1,057.4
58.9%
1,915.8
2,749.3
11,276.7
310.2%
14,051.1
(226.0)
1,809.3
-900.6%
5,336.9
4,020.5
590.0
-85.3%
665.9
12.9%
18.6%
6.9%
47.8%
7.6%
5.4%
6.5%
16.0%
5.7%
31.1%
3.1%
7%
10%
14%
-2%
5%
8%
7%
7%
8%
8%
3%
11%
4%
9%
9%
14%
15%
16%
25%
17%
17%
15%
20%
26%
6%
20%
15%
-4%
26%
33%
81%
12%
14%
333.4
463.8
837.5
345.7
349.6
733.8
6%
8%
12%
5%
5%
8%
965.5
1,061.6
1,561.9
703.6
785.7
1,167.1
7%
7%
9%
11%
11%
13%
867.1
956.6
1,362.9
9%
10%
11%
1,638.2
1,841.8
2,725.6
11%
14%
17%
2,239.0
2,324.7
3,111.2
17%
17%
17%
1,001.8
1,172.4
2,007.8
22%
22%
27%
10,758.0
11,358.9
13,321.5
23%
20%
14%
53.0
931.8
3,637.5
1%
14%
22%
3,943.5
1,265.2
1,600.7
79%
26%
33%
-6-
Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Profit and Cash Generation

Profit and Cash Generating Metrics
Nielsen
EPS
2012
2013
$0.91
1.24
2013 Growth
35.6%
DIVIDEND/SHARE
2012
2013
0.00
0.00
DIVIDEND/SHARE/CURRENT EQUITY PRICE

2012
2013
Interpublic
Omnicom
$0.74
0.80
$3.62
4.19
7.8%
Publicis
3.11
3.47
15.8%
11.7%
0.24
0.24
1.20
1.40
0.70
1.17
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.6%
FCF/SHARE
2012 FCF/2012 SHARES
2013 FCF/2012 SHARES
1.11
1.56
(0.30)
0.82
FCF/SHARE/CURRENT EQUITY PRICE

2012
2013
3.4%
4.8%
-2.5%
6.8%
WPP
CBS
58p
65
11.0%
$2.49
2.92
Viacom
$4.26
4.83
Discovery
$2.64
3.31
Google
$32.38
33.72
4.1%
Facebook
Yahoo
$0.03
0.38
$3.29
1.16
1356.3%
-64.7%
17.3%
13.3%
25.5%
27
31
0.44
0.48
1.05
1.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.4%
2.4%
2.7%
3.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.8%
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.69
4.23
2.38
0.93
25
63
3.21
3.35
7.26
5.05
1.88
2.99
(0.09)
0.71
3.80
0.56
6.8%
7.8%
4.9%
1.9%
2.5%
6.3%
7.5%
7.9%
12.3%
8.6%
2.7%
4.2%
-0.3%
2.5%
18.7%
2.7%
8.13
33.33
1.0%
4.3%
-7-
Pivotal Advertising Forecast: Summary Totals

Contact: Brian Wieser
(e) Brian@Pvtl.com (t) 212 514 4682 (m) 917 734 1980
2010A
TOTAL NATIONAL
Annual Growth / Decline
% of Mass Advertising
TOTAL LOCAL
TOTAL NATIONAL AND LOCAL

% of Normalized Advertising
NORMALIZED DIRECT AND MASS

Political
(f)
Bi-Annual Growth / Decline
Olympics(g)
Quadri-Annual Growth / Decline
TOTAL ADVERTISING REVENUES

$60,011.7
7.0%
48.3%
$64,173.7
1.1%
51.7%
$124,185.4
3.9%
74.5%
$166,681.6
2.8%
$2,103.2
1.3%
605.0
-6.9%
$169,389.8
4.3%
2011A
1Q12A
2Q12A
$63,295.9
$15,778.6
$16,747.1
5.5%
50.0%
$63,260.0
-1.4%
50.0%
$126,555.9
1.9%
73.7%
$171,639.8
3.0%
$378.9
-8.7%
0.0
0.0%
$172,018.7
1.6%
3.3%
52.0%
$14,580.7
-0.7%
48.0%
$30,359.3
1.4%
73.2%
$41,497.6
1.5%
$190.9
-16.2%
0.0
0.0%
$41,688.5
1.9%
3Q12E
$14,169.0
0.5%
51.0%
$16,095.7
-0.2%
47.5%
$15,659.2
-0.1%
49.0%
$32,842.9
0.4%
52.5%
$29,828.2
0.2%
74.0%
$44,364.8
0.1%
73.0%
$40,841.7
0.9%
$273.9
0.5%
$801.7
29.8%
0.0
50.0%
700.0
0.0%
$44,638.7
15.7%
$42,343.4
1.4%
4Q12E
$16,995.4
-1.0%
50.7%
$16,559.1
-1.9%
49.3%
$33,554.49
-1.4%
73.3%
$45,793.9
-0.8%
$1,695.0
50.0%
0.0
0.0%
$47,489.0
2012E
$63,690.1
0.6%
50.3%
$62,894.8
-0.6%
49.7%
$126,584.90
0.0%
73.4%
$172,498.0
0.5%
$2,961.5
40.8%
700.0
15.7%
$176,159.6
3.9%
2.5%
2.4%
3Q12E
4Q12E
2012E
1Q13E
$15,712.7
-0.4%
52.5%
$14,231.7
-2.4%
47.5%
$29,944.33
-1.4%
72.2%
$41,497.6
0.0%
$53.6
2Q13E
$16,849.7
0.6%
51.5%
$15,873.5
-1.4%
48.5%
$32,723.22
-0.4%
73.0%
$44,808.5
1.0%
$47.6
3Q13E
$14,334.0
1.2%
48.0%
$15,527.1
-0.8%
52.0%
$29,861.10
0.1%
72.0%
$41,454.3
1.5%
$141.4
4Q13E
$17,311.5
1.9%
51.2%
$16,518.1
-0.2%
48.8%
$33,829.58
0.8%
72.3%
$46,807.6
2.2%
$212.1
2013E
$64,207.9
0.8%
50.8%
$62,150.3
-1.2%
49.2%
$126,358.24
-0.2%
72.4%
$174,568.0
1.2%
$454.7
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
$41,551.2
-0.3%
0.0%
$44,856.1
0.0%
$41,595.7
0.0%
$47,019.7
0.0%
$175,022.7
2014E
$66,283.3
3.2%
51.8%
$61,641.8
-0.8%
48.2%
$127,925.10
1.2%
71.6%
$178,583.1
2.3%
$3,553.8
20.0%
625.0
3.3%
$182,761.9
2015E
$68,593.4
3.5%
52.8%
$61,283.5
-0.6%
47.2%
$129,876.96
1.5%
70.9%
$183,226.2
2.6%
$545.6
20.0%
0.0
0.0%
$183,771.9
2016E
$71,089.0
3.6%
53.8%
$61,011.9
-0.4%
46.2%
$132,100.84
1.7%
70.1%
$188,356.6
2.8%
$4,264.6
20.0%
700.0
0.0%
$193,321.2
2017E
$73,784.7
5-YR CAGR
3.0%
3.8%
54.8%
$60,824.1
-0.7%
-0.3%
45.2%
$134,608.81
1.2%
1.9%
69.4%
$194,007.3
2.4%
3.0%
$654.7
-26.1%
20.0%
0.0
0.0%
$194,662.0
0.5%
-1.8%
-1.0%
-0.6%
4.4%
0.6%
5.2%
0.7%
2Q13E
3Q13E
4Q13E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2.0%
Source: Pivotal Research Group, Cinema Ad Council, IAB, Magna Global, OAAA, RAB
(a) Excludes Internet-Based Advertising Revenues
(b) Includes Internet Classifieds, Email and Digital Display Less Internet Yellow Pages and Local Digital
(c) Excludes Incremental Olympic Revenues
(d) Excludes Local Political Advertising Revenues
(e) Lead Generation and Internet Yellow Pages
(f) Total Political Advertising Revenue on Local Broadcast and Local Cable TV
(g) Incremental Advertising Revenue from Olympics on Network TV
Alternative Organization of Data

Total National TV Including Olympics
Total Local TV Including Political

Total TV
Total Internet
Total Newspapers
Total Paid Search

2010A
$36,923.9
9.4%
$20,874.8
18.6%
$57,798.8
12.5%
$26,041.0
12.6%
$22,795.2
-8.2%
$11,999.5
11.1%
2011A
1Q12A
2Q12A
$38,578.6
$10,150.8
$10,169.4
4.5%
$19,698.1
-5.6%
$58,276.6
0.8%
$31,735.0
21.9%
$20,691.8
-9.2%
$15,843.7
32.0%
6.2%
$5,175.3
7.2%
$15,326.1
6.6%
$8,380.0
11.2%
$4,360.5
-8.2%
$4,445.5
21.7%
$9,402.2
3.1%
$5,070.1
8.4%
$5,940.8
9.8%
$15,239.5
18.3%
$15,343.0
5.2%
$9,060.0
12.0%
$8,202.4
12.7%
$4,781.4
13.5%
$4,551.4
-7.8%
$4,963.6
-5.7%
$4,395.9
22.3%
20.9%
$10,350.5
-1.3%
$6,674.8
27.6%
$17,025.4
8.3%
$10,030.9
12.3%
$5,535.9
-6.6%
$5,293.7
17.8%
$40,073.0
3.9%
$22,861.0
16.1%
$62,934.0
8.0%
$35,673.4
12.4%
$19,229.1
-7.1%
$19,098.7
20.5%
1Q13E
$10,198.7
0.5%
$5,096.6
-1.5%
$15,295.3
-0.2%
$9,406.2
12.2%
$3,919.9
-10.1%
$5,237.9
17.8%
$10,328.6
1.6%
$5,007.7
-1.2%
$15,336.4
0.6%
$10,209.3
12.7%
$4,341.0
-9.2%
$5,849.0
17.8%
$8,885.9
-5.5%
$5,463.7
-8.0%
$14,349.6
-6.5%
$9,303.0
13.4%
$4,148.7
-8.8%
$5,234.0
19.1%
-8-
$10,649.0
2.9%
$5,576.1
-16.5%
$16,225.1
-4.7%
$11,317.4
12.8%
$5,035.2
-9.0%
$6,279.4
18.6%
$40,062.2
0.0%
$21,144.1
-7.5%
$61,206.4
-2.7%
$40,235.8
12.8%
$17,444.8
-9.3%
$22,600.4
18.3%
$42,214.2
5.4%
$24,998.6
18.2%
$67,212.8
9.8%
$45,105.9
12.1%
$15,860.0
-9.1%
$26,242.0
16.1%
$43,278.7
2.5%
$22,785.0
-8.9%
$66,063.7
-1.7%
$50,187.7
11.3%
$14,328.6
-9.7%
$29,994.7
14.3%
$45,784.3
5.8%
$27,168.0
19.2%
$72,952.3
10.4%
$55,307.3
10.2%
$12,996.7
-9.3%
$33,777.6
12.6%
$47,218.2
5-YR CAGR
3.3%
3.1%
$24,156.8
1.1%
-11.1%
$71,375.0
2.5%
-2.2%
$60,409.9
11.1%
9.2%
$11,687.3
-9.5%
-10.1%
$37,595.1
11.3%
14.5%
Pivotal Advertising Forecast: National Media

2010A
2011A
1Q12A
2Q12A
$22,000.1
5,501.4
5,963.0
3Q12E
4Q12E
2012E
1Q13E
2Q13E
3Q13E
4Q13E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
5-YR CAGR
NATIONAL MASS MEDIA ADVERTISING REVENUES

National Television
National Cable(a)
% of National TV
National Broadcast - English(a)(c)

% of National TV
National Broadcast - Spanish(a)

% of National TV
National Syndication
% of National TV
Total National Television

% of National Advertising
Total Magazines(a)
National Digital
National Digital Display + Mobile Display
% of National Digital
Online Video
% of National Digital
Total National Digital

Total Network and Satellite Radio

Total National Newspapers(a)

Total Cinema
TOTAL NATIONAL
$20,369.0
12.6%
56.1%
12,989.0
0.8%
35.8%
1,093.4
8.3%
3.0%
1,867.6
5.2%
5.1%
$36,318.9
7.6%
60.5%
13,813.3
0.1%
23.0%
5,720.5
17.5%
80.3%
1,404.0
38.1%
19.7%
$7,124.5
21.0%
6.0%
1,166.5
4.2%
1.9%
930.2
1.3%
1.5%
658.3
12.7%
1.1%
$60,011.7
7.0%
48.3%
8.0%
57.0%
13,468.1
3.7%
34.9%
1,171.7
7.2%
3.0%
1,938.6
3.8%
5.0%
$38,578.6
6.2%
60.9%
13,760.2
-0.4%
21.7%
6,444.6
12.7%
78.1%
1,809.0
28.8%
21.9%
$8,253.6
15.8%
13.0%
1,209.7
3.7%
1.9%
849.5
-8.7%
1.3%
644.3
-2.1%
1.0%
$63,295.9
5.5%
50.0%
6.9%
54.2%
3,914.8
4.8%
38.6%
263.8
21.7%
2.6%
470.8
3.3%
4.6%
$10,150.8
6.2%
64.3%
2,979.2
-4.4%
18.9%
1,483.6
-5.3%
73.1%
544.7
28.2%
26.9%
$2,028.3
1.8%
12.9%
300.7
8.7%
1.9%
187.8
-11.0%
1.2%
131.8
10.0%
0.8%
$15,778.6
3.3%
52.0%
5,473.8
4.4%
58.6%
3,368.2
2.2%
62.9%
2,432.9
0.0%
33.1%
345.0
-4.0%
28.0%
275.9
12.0%
3.4%
493.2
5.0%
3.2%
519.7
4.0%
4.8%
$10,169.4
0.0%
6.0%
$8,702.2
3.1%
60.7%
3,721.9
0.3%
61.4%
2,897.3
-7.6%
22.2%
1,571.8
-7.5%
20.4%
1,384.2
-3.7%
72.3%
603.4
4.2%
71.7%
546.9
29.5%
27.7%
$2,175.2
28.1%
28.3%
$1,931.2
3.7%
13.0%
310.8
10.0%
13.6%
309.8
3.5%
1.9%
195.6
3.0%
2.2%
3,635.8
-5.1%
35.1%
389.9
1.5%
3.8%
465.3
-4.8%
4.5%
$10,350.5
-1.3%
60.9%
3,228.4
-7.3%
19.0%
2,022.8
5.5%
76.4%
625.2
27.3%
23.6%
$2,648.0
10.0%
15.6%
340.5
2.5%
2.0%
22,797.7
3.6%
57.9%
13,351.7
-0.9%
33.9%
1,274.6
8.8%
3.2%
1,948.9
0.5%
4.9%
$39,373.0
2.1%
61.8%
12,826.9
-6.8%
20.1%
6,462.5
0.3%
73.6%
2,320.2
28.3%
26.4%
$8,782.7
6.4%
13.8%
1,261.8
4.3%
2.0%
5,736.4
4.3%
56.2%
3,729.3
-4.7%
36.6%
280.3
6.3%
2.7%
452.6
-3.9%
4.4%
$10,198.7
0.5%
64.9%
2,731.0
-8.3%
17.4%
1,570.6
5.9%
72.1%
606.4
11.3%
27.9%
$2,177.0
7.3%
13.9%
299.4
-0.4%
1.9%
6,268.1
5.1%
60.7%
3,214.3
-4.6%
31.1%
365.9
6.1%
3.5%
480.2
-2.6%
4.6%
$10,328.6
1.6%
61.3%
3,492.0
-6.2%
20.7%
1,679.6
6.9%
71.3%
677.4
12.3%
28.7%
$2,357.0
8.4%
14.0%
312.7
0.6%
1.9%
5,771.5
5.4%
65.0%
2,306.6
-5.2%
26.0%
295.0
6.9%
3.3%
512.9
-1.3%
5.8%
$8,885.9
2.1%
62.0%
2,716.1
-6.3%
18.9%
1,482.1
7.1%
70.7%
614.9
12.4%
29.3%
$2,097.0
8.6%
14.6%
313.4
1.2%
2.2%
230.5
759.3
167.4
175.8
129.1
-10.0%
1.0%
-11.5%
1.4%
-10.6%
1.2%
-10.9%
1.1%
-10.2%
1.0%
-11.2%
0.9%
183.1
197.4
686.5
139.1
183.7
192.4
5.0%
1.0%
$16,747.1
1.3%
56.6%
145.3
-9.6%
1.2%
174.2
5,859.5
7.0%
1.3%
$14,169.0
0.5%
51.0%
-0.2%
47.5%
5.3%
1.2%
$16,995.4
-1.0%
50.7%
6.6%
1.1%
$63,690.1
0.6%
50.3%
5.5%
0.9%
$15,712.7
-0.4%
52.5%
5.4%
1.1%
$16,849.7
0.6%
51.5%
5.1%
1.3%
$14,334.0
1.2%
48.0%
-9-
6,161.9
5.2%
57.9%
3,614.1
-0.6%
33.9%
415.7
6.6%
3.9%
457.2
-1.7%
4.3%
$10,649.0
2.9%
61.5%
3,029.0
-6.2%
17.5%
2,160.2
6.8%
75.4%
705.0
12.8%
24.6%
$2,865.1
8.2%
16.6%
346.5
1.8%
2.0%
212.9
-7.6%
1.2%
209.0
5.9%
1.2%
$17,311.5
1.9%
51.2%
23,937.9
5.0%
59.8%
12,864.4
-3.7%
32.1%
1,357.0
6.5%
3.4%
1,902.9
-2.4%
4.7%
$40,062.2
1.8%
62.4%
11,968.0
-6.7%
18.6%
6,892.5
6.7%
72.6%
2,603.6
12.2%
27.4%
$9,496.1
8.1%
14.8%
1,272.0
0.8%
2.0%
685.2
-9.8%
1.1%
724.2
5.5%
1.1%
$64,207.9
0.8%
50.8%
25,203.8
5.3%
60.6%
13,042.8
1.4%
31.4%
1,471.1
8.4%
3.5%
1,871.5
-1.7%
4.5%
$41,589.2
3.8%
62.7%
11,692.1
-2.3%
17.6%
7,373.1
7.0%
71.6%
2,927.1
12.4%
28.4%
$10,300.2
8.5%
15.5%
1,313.2
3.2%
2.0%
624.5
-8.9%
0.9%
764.2
5.5%
1.2%
$66,283.3
3.2%
51.8%
26,638.9
5.7%
61.6%
13,248.0
1.6%
30.6%
1,552.5
5.5%
3.6%
1,839.3
-1.7%
4.2%
$43,278.7
4.1%
63.1%
11,413.6
-2.4%
16.6%
7,942.5
7.7%
71.1%
3,231.2
10.4%
28.9%
$11,173.7
8.5%
16.3%
1,358.9
3.5%
2.0%
560.5
-10.2%
0.8%
808.0
5.7%
1.2%
$68,593.4
3.5%
52.8%
28,156.0
5.7%
62.5%
13,462.6
1.6%
29.9%
1,662.4
7.1%
3.7%
1,803.4
-2.0%
4.0%
$45,084.3
4.2%
63.4%
11,118.0
-2.6%
15.6%
8,549.9
7.6%
70.6%
3,563.5
10.3%
29.4%
$12,113.3
8.4%
17.0%
1,408.4
3.6%
2.0%
509.8
-9.0%
0.7%
855.1
5.8%
1.2%
$71,089.0
3.6%
53.8%
29,913.6
5.6%
6.2%
63.4%
13,745.7
0.6%
2.1%
29.1%
1,788.3
7.0%
7.6%
3.8%
1,770.7
-1.9%
-1.8%
3.7%
$47,218.2
3.7%
4.7%
64.0%
10,801.7
-3.4%
-2.8%
14.6%
9,069.8
7.0%
6.1%
70.1%
3,871.8
10.8%
8.7%
29.9%
$12,941.6
8.1%
6.8%
17.5%
1,461.8
3.0%
3.8%
2.0%
455.4
-9.7%
-10.7%
0.6%
906.0
5.7%
5.9%
1.2%
$73,784.7
3.8%
54.8%
3.0%
Pivotal Advertising Forecast: Local Media and Mass Media Total

2010A
2011A
1Q12A
2Q12A
$15,409.3
4,135.4
3,692.4
3Q12E
4Q12E
2012E
1Q13E
2Q13E
3Q13E
4Q13E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
5-YR CAGR
LOCAL MASS MEDIA ADVERTISING REVENUES

Local Television
Local Broadcast TV(a)(d)
% of Local TV
(a)(d)
Local Cable TV

% of Local TV
Total Local Television

% of Local Advertising
Total Local Newspapers(a)

Total Local Radio(a)

Total Outdoor
Total Local Digital(b)

TOTAL LOCAL
TOTAL NATIONAL AND LOCAL

$14,958.3
7.8%
79.7%
3,813.3
12.9%
20.3%
$18,771.6
8.8%
29.3%
21,865.1
-8.5%
34.1%
14,181.0
4.9%
22.1%
5,484.5
4.1%
8.5%
3,871.5
12.0%
6.0%
$64,173.7
1.1%
51.7%
$124,185.4
3.9%
74.5%
3.0%
79.8%
3,909.9
2.5%
20.2%
$19,319.2
2.9%
30.5%
19,842.3
-9.3%
31.4%
14,060.0
-0.9%
22.2%
5,744.1
4.0%
9.1%
4,294.5
10.9%
6.8%
$63,260.0
-1.4%
50.0%
$126,555.9
1.9%
73.7%
4.5%
83.0%
849.0
3.0%
17.0%
$4,984.4
4.2%
34.2%
4,172.6
-8.1%
28.6%
3,047.0
-0.5%
20.9%
1,302.9
4.0%
8.9%
1,073.7
2.5%
7.4%
$14,580.7
-0.7%
48.0%
$30,359.3
1.4%
73.2%
4,073.9
5.0%
77.0%
1,103.8
4.0%
79.4%
1,065.2
4.0%
23.0%
$4,796.2
8.0%
20.6%
$5,139.1
4.8%
29.8%
4,585.7
4.8%
32.8%
4,406.1
-7.8%
28.5%
3,760.0
-5.5%
28.1%
3,665.0
1.0%
23.4%
1,882.4
0.0%
23.5%
1,366.4
4.5%
11.7%
1,071.4
3.0%
8.7%
1,082.6
3.7%
6.7%
$16,095.7
4.0%
6.9%
$15,659.2
-0.1%
49.0%
$32,842.9
0.4%
52.5%
$29,828.2
0.2%
74.0%
0.1%
73.0%
3,821.1
-4.9%
76.7%
1,158.7
11.6%
23.3%
$4,979.8
-1.5%
30.1%
5,305.4
-6.4%
32.0%
3,632.6
0.6%
21.9%
1,410.7
3.5%
8.5%
1,230.6
4.9%
7.4%
$16,559.1
-1.9%
49.3%
$33,554.49
-1.4%
73.3%
$15,722.88
2.0%
79.0%
4,176.6
6.8%
21.0%
$19,899.5
3.0%
31.6%
18,469.8
-6.9%
29.4%
14,104.6
0.3%
22.4%
5,962.5
3.8%
9.5%
4,458.4
3.8%
7.1%
$62,894.8
-0.6%
49.7%
$126,584.90
0.0%
73.4%
$4,146.21
0.3%
82.2%
896.8
5.6%
17.8%
$5,043.0
1.2%
35.4%
3,752.5
-10.1%
26.4%
2,974.1
-2.4%
20.9%
1,342.9
3.1%
9.4%
1,119.2
4.2%
7.9%
$14,231.7
-2.4%
47.5%
$29,944.33
-1.4%
72.2%
$3,781.45
2.4%
76.2%
1,178.7
6.8%
23.8%
$4,960.1
3.4%
31.2%
4,165.2
-9.2%
26.2%
3,708.1
-1.4%
23.4%
1,919.9
2.0%
12.1%
1,120.1
4.5%
7.1%
$15,873.5
-1.4%
48.5%
$32,723.22
-0.4%
73.0%
$4,185.25
2.7%
78.6%
1,137.1
6.7%
21.4%
$5,322.3
3.6%
34.3%
4,019.6
-8.8%
25.9%
3,648.2
-0.5%
23.5%
1,401.5
2.6%
9.0%
1,135.6
4.9%
7.3%
$15,527.1
-0.8%
52.0%
$29,861.10
0.1%
72.0%
- 10 -
4,234.1
10.8%
78.9%
1,129.9
-2.5%
21.1%
$5,364.0
7.7%
32.5%
4,822.3
-9.1%
29.2%
3,607.3
-0.7%
21.8%
1,445.1
2.4%
8.7%
1,279.3
4.0%
7.7%
$16,518.1
-0.2%
48.8%
$33,829.58
0.8%
72.3%
$16,347.04
4.0%
79.0%
4,342.4
4.0%
21.0%
$20,689.4
4.0%
33.3%
16,759.6
-9.3%
27.0%
13,937.7
-1.2%
22.4%
6,109.4
2.5%
9.8%
4,654.2
4.4%
7.5%
$62,150.3
-1.2%
49.2%
$126,358.24
-0.2%
72.4%
$16,783.00
2.7%
78.3%
4,661.8
7.4%
21.7%
$21,444.8
3.7%
34.8%
15,235.5
-9.1%
24.7%
13,823.6
-0.8%
22.4%
6,275.2
2.7%
10.2%
4,862.7
4.5%
7.9%
$61,641.8
-0.8%
48.2%
$127,925.10
1.2%
71.6%
$17,238.08
2.7%
77.5%
5,001.3
7.3%
22.5%
$22,239.4
3.7%
36.3%
13,768.1
-9.6%
22.5%
13,743.3
-0.6%
22.4%
6,453.2
2.8%
10.5%
5,079.6
4.5%
8.3%
$61,283.5
-0.6%
47.2%
$129,876.96
1.5%
70.9%
$17,581.04
2.0%
76.8%
5,322.4
6.4%
23.2%
$22,903.5
3.0%
37.5%
12,486.8
-9.3%
20.5%
13,682.4
-0.4%
22.4%
6,638.1
2.9%
10.9%
5,301.1
4.4%
8.7%
$61,011.9
-0.4%
46.2%
$132,100.84
1.7%
70.1%
$17,864.25
2.6%
1.6%
76.0%
5,637.8
6.2%
5.9%
24.0%
$23,502.0
3.4%
2.6%
38.6%
11,231.9
-9.5%
-10.0%
18.5%
13,640.3
-0.7%
-0.3%
22.4%
6,921.8
3.0%
4.3%
11.4%
5,528.1
4.4%
4.3%
9.1%
$60,824.1
-0.7%
-0.3%
45.2%
$134,608.81
1.9%
69.4%
1.2%
Pivotal Advertising Forecast: Direct Media

2010A
2011A
1Q12A
2Q12A
15,843.7
4,445.5
4,963.6
3Q12E
4Q12E
2012E
1Q13E
2Q13E
3Q13E
4Q13E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
5-YR CAGR
DIRECT MEDIA ADVERTISING REVENUES

Direct Online
Total Paid Search (Incl. Mobile)
% of Direct Online
Other Direct Online(e)

% of Direct Online
Total Direct Online

% of Total Direct Advertising
Total Direct Mail
11.1%
79.8%
3,045.5
-1.5%
20.2%
$15,045.0
9.1%
35.4%
20,599.1

Total Directories
11,999.5
(a)

TOTAL DIRECT
3.8%
48.5%
6,852.2
-23.5%
16.1%
$42,496.2
-0.8%
25.5%
32.0%
82.6%
3,343.2
9.8%
17.4%
$19,186.9
27.5%
42.6%
20,403.1
-1.0%
45.3%
5,494.0
-19.8%
12.2%
$45,084.0
4.4%
26.3%
21.7%
84.2%
832.5
-1.4%
15.8%
$5,277.9
17.3%
47.4%
4,729.8
-4.5%
42.5%
1,130.6
-22.7%
10.2%
$11,138.3
2.1%
26.8%
4,395.9
22.3%
85.4%
849.8
20.9%
84.7%
792.7
-0.4%
14.6%
$5,813.4
0.0%
15.3%
$5,188.6
18.4%
50.5%
4,616.5
17.1%
47.1%
4,813.3
-5.6%
40.1%
1,092.1
-6.0%
43.7%
1,011.5
-22.5%
9.5%
$11,521.9
-22.0%
9.2%
$11,013.5
2.8%
26.0%
1.5%
27.0%
5,293.7
17.8%
86.0%
858.7
0.6%
14.0%
$6,152.4
15.0%
50.3%
5,103.6
-6.2%
41.7%
983.5
-25.8%
8.0%
$12,239.4
1.0%
26.7%
19,098.7
20.5%
85.1%
3,333.7
-0.3%
14.9%
$22,432.3
16.9%
48.9%
19,263.2
-5.6%
42.0%
4,217.6
-23.2%
9.2%
$45,913.1
1.8%
26.6%
5,237.9
17.8%
85.7%
872.0
4.8%
14.3%
$6,110.0
15.8%
52.9%
4,559.4
-3.6%
39.5%
5,849.0
17.8%
86.9%
883.1
3.9%
13.1%
$6,732.1
15.8%
55.7%
4,479.6
-3.0%
37.1%
5,234.0
19.1%
86.2%
836.4
5.5%
13.8%
$6,070.4
17.0%
52.4%
4,718.9
-2.0%
40.7%
18.6%
87.5%
893.5
4.1%
12.5%
$7,173.0
16.6%
55.3%
5,022.5
-1.6%
38.7%
883.9
873.5
803.9
782.6
-21.8%
7.7%
-20.0%
7.2%
-20.5%
6.9%
-20.4%
6.0%
$11,553.3
3.7%
27.8%
$12,085.2
4.9%
27.0%
$11,593.2
5.3%
28.0%
- 11 -
6,279.4
$12,978.0
6.0%
27.7%
22,600.4
18.3%
86.6%
3,485.1
4.5%
13.4%
$26,085.5
16.3%
54.1%
18,780.5
-2.5%
39.0%
3,343.9
-20.7%
6.9%
$48,209.8
5.0%
27.6%
26,242.0
16.1%
87.6%
3,701.0
6.2%
12.4%
$29,943.0
14.8%
59.1%
18,214.4
-3.0%
36.0%
2,500.5
-25.2%
4.9%
$50,658.0
5.1%
28.4%
30,011.6
14.4%
88.4%
3,939.9
6.5%
11.6%
$33,934.5
13.3%
63.6%
17,581.6
-3.5%
33.0%
1,833.1
-26.7%
3.4%
$53,349.3
5.3%
29.1%
33,777.6
12.5%
89.1%
4,115.2
4.5%
10.9%
$37,892.9
11.7%
67.4%
16,992.4
-3.4%
30.2%
1,370.4
-25.2%
2.4%
$56,255.7
5.4%
29.9%
37,595.1
14.5%
11.3%
89.6%
4,345.1
5.4%
5.6%
10.4%
$41,940.2
13.3%
10.7%
70.6%
16,456.8
-3.1%
-3.2%
27.7%
1,001.5
-25.0%
-26.9%
1.7%
$59,398.5
5.6%
30.6%
5.3%
Appendix: Important Disclosures

Analyst Certification
I, Brian W. Wieser, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my
personal views about the subject company and their securities. I further certify that I have not received
and will not receive direct or indirect compensation related to specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report.
Legal Disclaimers
Pivotal Research Group LLC is an independent equity research company and is neither a broker dealer
nor offers investment banking services. Pivotal Research Group LLC is not a market maker for any
securities, does not hold any securities positions, and does not seek compensation for investment
banking services. The analyst preparing this report does not own any securities of the subject company
and does not receive any compensation directly or indirectly from investment banking services.
Stock Ratings
Pivotal Research Group LLC assigns one of three ratings based on an expectation of absolute total return
(price change plus dividends) over a twelve month time frame. The ratings are based on the following
criteria:
BUY: The security is expected to have an absolute return in excess of 15%.
HOLD: The security is expected to have an absolute return of between plus and minus 15%.
SELL: The security is expected to have an absolute return less than minus 15%.
Ratings Distribution
Pivotal Research LLC currently provides research coverage of 33 companies, of which 64% are rated
BUY, 36% are rated HOLD and 0% are rated SELL. Our company does not offer investment banking
services. This data is accurate as-of February 8, 2013.
Price Chart and Target Price History
- 12 -
- 13 -
Other Disclaimers
Information contained in this report has been prepared from sources that are believed to be reliable and
accurate but are not guaranteed by us and do not represent a complete summary or statement of all
available data. Additional information is available upon request. Furthermore, information and opinions
expressed are subject to change without notice and we are under no obligation to inform you of such
change.
This report is has been prepared solely for our institutional clients. Ratings and target prices do not take
into account the particular investment objectives, financial and/or tax situation, or needs of individual
investors. Investment decisions should take into account all available information, not just that which is
contained in this report. Furthermore, nothing contained in this report should be considered an offer or
solicitation by Pivotal Research Group LLC to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance and estimates of future performance contained
in this report are based on assumptions that may not be realized.
Material in this report, except that which is supplied by third parties, is Copyright 2013, by Pivotal
Research LLC. All rights reserved. No portion may be reproduced, sold, or redistributed in any form
without express written consent of Pivotal Research Group LLC.
Commission Sharing Arrangements
Pivotal Research Group LLC has commission sharing arrangements (CSA) with numerous brokerdealers. Please contact Jeff Shelton at 212-514-4681 for further information.
Additional Information Available Upon Request
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PIVOTAL

Pivotal Research Group

U.S. Equity Research

Madison & Wall

Conversations About Twitter And Nielsen

Brian Wieser, CFA

Media Agencies: Structure As Strategy

Pivotals US Advertising Forecast And Comparables

853 Broadway, Suite 1406

New York, NY 10003

Media Agencies: Structure As Strategy

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Conversations About Twitter And Nielsen

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Trading Multiples and Targets

Target Price And Related Metrics

Near-Term 2012-2017 Growth Rate

Target Stock Price

Target Vs. Current Price

Source: Pivotal Research

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Operating Metrics

FREE CASHFLOW (ex "Other" Changes)

FREE CASHFLOW MARGINS

Source: Pivotal Research

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotals Advertising Comparables: Profit and Cash Generation

DIVIDEND/SHARE/CURRENT EQUITY PRICE

FCF/SHARE/CURRENT EQUITY PRICE

Source: Pivotal Research

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotal Advertising Forecast: Summary Totals

TOTAL NATIONAL AND LOCAL

NORMALIZED DIRECT AND MASS

Bi-Annual Growth / Decline

Quadri-Annual Growth / Decline

TOTAL ADVERTISING REVENUES

Alternative Organization of Data

Total Local TV Including Political

Total Paid Search

Source: Pivotal Research

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotal Advertising Forecast: National Media

NATIONAL MASS MEDIA ADVERTISING REVENUES

National Broadcast - English(a)(c)

National Broadcast - Spanish(a)

Total National Television

Total National Digital

Total Network and Satellite Radio

Total National Newspapers(a)

Source: Pivotal Research

Brian Wieser 212-514-4682

Pivotal Research Group

Pivotal Advertising Forecast: Local Media and Mass Media Total

LOCAL MASS MEDIA ADVERTISING REVENUES