Max Kondrath 10/13/10 Intro to Global Change

Lab 5 Moths
1. Pollution = 0
1: Dark Freq 1: 2: 1 1 1 2: Light Freq 2 2

1: 2:

0 1 1

2 1 1 0.00 Page 1 50.00 100.00 Y ears Graph 1 150.00 200.00 4:00 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

1: 2:

0 0

1: AA Mothies 1: 2: 3: 300 500 2000

2: Aa Mothlets

3: aa Moths

1 2 3 1: 2: 3: 150 250 1000 3 3

2 3 1: 2: 3: Page 1 0 0 0 0.00 1

2 1 100.00 Y ears graph 2 2 1 150.00 200.00 4:00 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

50.00

Big A: 0 Little a: 1

Pollution = 1
1: Dark Freq 1: 2: 1 0 1 1 2: Light Freq

2 1: 2: 1 0

1 2 2 1: 2: Page 1 1 0 0.00 50.00 100.00 Y ears Graph 1 1: AA Mothies 1: 2: 3: 4000 1400 250 2: Aa Mothlets 3: aa Moths 2 150.00 200.00 4:02 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

2 1: 2: 3: 2000 950 150

3 2 1 2 1 3 3

1: 2: 3: Page 1

0 500 50

1 0.00

2 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph 2 150.00 200.00 4:02 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

Big A: 0.8 Little a: 0.2

Changing Pollution leveling off at y=1 near x = 100

1: Dark Freq 1: 2: 1 1 2 1 1 2 1: 2: 1 0 2: Light Freq

1 1 1: 2: Page 1 0 0 0.00 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph5 1: AA Mothies 1: 2: 3: 300 500 400 2: Aa Mothlets 3: aa Moths 150.00 200.00 4:18 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010 2

1 2 1: 2: 3: 150 300 200

3 1 1: 2: 3: Page 1 0 100 0 0.00 1 2 2 1 100.00 Y ears graph6 2 3

50.00

150.00 200.00 4:18 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

Big A = 0.6 Little a = 0.4

Changing pollution leveling off at y =1 near x = 150

1: Dark Freq 1: 2: 1 1 1 2 2 2 2: Light Freq

1: 2:

0 1 1

2 1 1: 2: Page 1 0 0 0.00 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph7 1: AA Mothies 1: 2: 3: 300 500 350 3 1 2 2: Aa Mothlets 3 3 3: aa Moths 150.00 200.00 4:22 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010 1

1: 2: 3:

150 250 200

2 3 1: 2: 3: Page 1 0 0 50 0.00 1 1 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph8 2 1 150.00 200.00 4:22 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010 2

Big A = .3 Little a = .4

1.

Graphs one and two show that the light moths prosper in a scenario with no pollution. The genotypes Aa and AA die off because they are the black ones and they do not blend in well when there is no pollution. In graphs two and three which include pollution we can see that the dark moths prosper as the light moths become less populated. Also we can see that now genotypes Aa and AA (dark moths) become heavily populated due to the fact that they can now blend in will with the pollution covered trees. In graphs 5 and 6 there is pollution present that increases with time and eventually levels off. As this pollution is increasing the population of white moths thrives (genotype: aa) and the genotypes AA and Aa decrease. Once the pollution is at its highest level the light colored moths begin to decrease in population as the dark moths population starts to increase. In the final two graphs the pollution is represented as a function of time that increases but takes longer to hit its max =1. As the pollution is slowly increasing the light colored moths have an increasing, large population and the dark colored moths are dying off. By the time the pollution hits its max=1 the dark colored moths are nearly extinct and have a hard time recovering. The light colored moths rapidly die off once the pollution = 1 and the totally population of moths becomes quite low at the end of the scenario. 2. In this model we assume that pollution rates only effect the moths survival and not the survival of predators. Horrible pollution could have an effect on the survival of birds and other small mammals. This could add further complexity to our model. Also we have assumed that birds are the only predators of moths. It is very possible that a hungry little rodent or stray cat could be a predator to a moth. It is a fact that cats can eat moths as I have seen it with my own eyes. 3.
1: Light Freq 1: 2: 1 1 2 2: Dark Freq

2 1: 2: 0 1 2 1 1

1 1: 2: Page 1 0 0 0.00 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph9 150.00 200.00 4:46 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

1: AA Mothies 1: 2: 3: 300 500 350 1 2 3 1: 2: 3: 150 250 200

2: Aa Mothlets

3: aa Moths

2 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 0.00 50.00 100.00 Y ears graph10 3

1: 2: 3: Page 1

0 0 50

150.00 200.00 4:46 PM Wed, Oct 13, 2010

Big A: 0.2 Little a: 0.8 If the pollution function were to be rapidly fluctuating I would expect the dark colored moths population to increase as pollution levels spiked and light colored moths pollution levels to increase as the pollution function has negative spikes (relative minimums). In other words the phenotypic response of dark colored moths increases at any spike of pollution and decreases as these spikes reside. I would expect the entire population of moths to be quite low because as there is high pollution spikes lots of aa moths would be eaten and as the pollution function dips lots of Aa and AA moths will be eaten leaving an overall low moth population. 4. To account for Aa moths being grey I first added a bird pred grey converter which is affected by rate of predation by the birds, the amount of birds preying on dark moths, the amount of birds preying on light moths and pollution. This bird pred grey converter has many factors that determine its value and it affects the death rate of the grey moths (death rate 2). Also near the bottom of the model I added a grey freq converter to help account for the number of total moths. 5. This grey phenotype will most likely survive as there are rapidly fluctuating pollution levels because at some time throughout the function dark and light moths are being heavily eaten while the grey moths are being eaten only at average rates. The fact that the grey moths would never have peak high rates of predation would give them the upper hand at sustaining a steady rate of death vs. birth. The model we created is a simplistic version of a real world situation but I believe it quite accurate in determining the outcomes of different related situations. It is evident that we have made assumptions and it is these assumptions that help us create the most accurate model possible enabling us to representatively model real world situations. These assumptions made are minute while the factors of bird predation rates and pollution rates are most important having the most effect on populations of moths.

Dark/Light moths

Graph 7 Graph 1 Graph 2 Graph 4 Graph 5 Graph 6 Big A allele Little a allele Graph 8 0.2 Graph 9 AA Mothies 0.8

Graph 3

Birth1

Death1 Graph 10

Natural Mortality Total Moths Big A allele

~ Pollution

Bird Pred Dark Aa Mothlets

Repro Rate

Birth2

Death2

Total Moths Little a allele aa Moths

Natural Mortality

Bird Pred Rate

Birth3

Death3

Total Moths Natural Mortality Bird Pred Light

~ Pollution

Total Moths

AA Mothies

Aa Mothlets

aa Moths

Dark Freq Light Freq

Dark/Grey/Light moths

Graph 7 Graph 1 Graph 2 Graph 4 Graph 5 Graph 6 Big A allele Little a allele Graph 8 0.2 Graph 9 AA Mothies 0.8

Graph 3

Birth1

Death1 Graph 10

Natural Mortality Total Moths Big A allele Bird Pred Dark Aa Mothlets

~ Pollution

? Repro Rate Birth2 Death2

? Total Moths Little a allele aa Moths Natural Mortality Bird Pred Grey Bird Pred Rate

Birth3

Death3

Total Moths Natural Mortality Bird Pred Light

~ Pollution

Total Moths

AA Mothies

Aa Mothlets

aa Moths

? Dark Freq

? grey f req Light Freq

Equations AA_Mothies(t) = AA_Mothies(t - dt) + (Birth1 - Death1) * dt INIT AA_Mothies = 250 INFLOWS: Birth1 = (Repro_Rate*Total_Moths)*(Big_A_allele^2) OUTFLOWS: Death1 = AA_Mothies*(Natural_Mortality+Bird_Pred_Dark) Aa_Mothlets(t) = Aa_Mothlets(t - dt) + (Birth2 - Death2) * dt INIT Aa_Mothlets = 500 INFLOWS: Birth2 = (Repro_Rate*Total_Moths)*(2*Big_A_allele*Little_a_allele) OUTFLOWS: Death2 = (Aa_Mothlets)* (Natural_Mortality+Bird_Pred_Dark) aa_Moths(t) = aa_Moths(t - dt) + (Birth3 - Death3) * dt INIT aa_Moths = 250 INFLOWS: Birth3 = (Repro_Rate*Total_Moths)*(Little_a_allele^2) OUTFLOWS: Death3 = aa_Moths *(Natural_Mortality+Bird_Pred_Light) Big_A_allele = ((2*AA_Mothies/Total_Moths) + (Aa_Mothlets/Total_Moths))/2 Bird_Pred_Dark = Bird_Pred_Rate-(Pollution*Bird_Pred_Rate) Bird_Pred_Light = Pollution * Bird_Pred_Rate Bird_Pred_Rate = .04 Dark_Freq = (AA_Mothies+Aa_Mothlets)/Total_Moths Light_Freq = aa_Moths/Total_Moths

Little_a_allele = ((2*aa_Moths/Total_Moths)+(Aa_Mothlets/Total_Moths))/2 Natural_Mortality = .045 Repro_Rate = .055 Total_Moths = AA_Mothies+Aa_Mothlets+aa_Moths Pollution = GRAPH(TIME) (0.00, 0.41), (20.0, 0.05), (40.0, 0.375), (60.0, 0.56), (80.0, 0.665), (100, 0.285), (120, 0.395), (140, 0.275), (160, 0.665), (180, 0.11), (200, 0.41)