A Reason to Believe: Examining the Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming n

Christopher P. Borick, Muhlenberg College Barry G. Rabe, University of Michigan

Objectives. In this article we examine the causes of both belief and disbelief in global warming among adult Americans. Methods. We use national- and statelevel telephone surveys to collect data on individual-level beliefs regarding climate change and employ ordered logistical regression to measures the relative effect of various factors on those beliefs. Results. The study nds that U.S. views on climate change are being shaped by a combination of personal observations, meteorological events, and physical changes on the planet. The impact of various factors on ones belief in global warming are signicantly determined by partisan afliation, with Democrats and Republicans responding differently to assorted types of evidence. Conclusion. Beliefs regarding global warming are being shaped by individual experiences and weather phenomenon and the processing of such factors is substantially inuenced by a persons partisan leanings.

Over the last decade there has been a signicant evolution of U.S. public opinion regarding global warming. During this time period, residents of the United States have indicated increased awareness of the issue, growing belief that the climate is changing, and higher levels of concern regarding the impact that this phenomenon will have on the planet. Although most Americans believe that global warming is occurring, little is known about the reasons why they believe this phenomenon is taking place. For example, has this increased public acceptance of climate change been caused by exposure to scientic evidence that demonstrates changes to the Earths climate, or has the change in public belief in global warming resulted more from the pern Direct correspondence to Christopher P. Borick, Political Science Department, Muhlenberg College, 2400 W. Chew St., Allentown, PA 18104 h cborick@muhlenberg.edu i . Christopher P. Borick will share all data and coding information with those wishing to replicate the study. We are grateful for thoughtful comments from two anonymous reviewers and our colleagues Melissa Forbes, Thomas Ivacko, Sidney Milkis, and Michael Mintrom. We also express our gratitude for funding provided by the WestWind Foundation, the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, and the Center for Local, State and Urban Policy at the University of Michigan. Earlier versions of this article were presented at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association and the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association.

SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY, Volume 91, Number 3, September 2010 r 2010 by the Southwestern Social Science Association

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sonal climatic observations and experiences of individuals? And while a majority of Americans do acknowledge belief in anthropogenic-induced global warming, what factors have led millions of U.S. residents to express disbelief in this heavily publicized matter? In this article we seek to shed light on the determinants of individual belief in global warming through a multifaceted survey research design in which Americans provided detailed information regarding the effect of various factors on their views regarding climate change. Interviews with more than 2,100 respondents, including oversamples in four diverse states, provide evidence that U.S. attitudes toward climate change are being shaped as much by their personal experiences as by scientic and physical evidence. The survey ndings also indicate that partisan afliation, rather than other individual-level characteristics, forms the dominant lens through which the issue of climate change is viewed by U.S. citizens.
The Determinants of Belief

What determines an individuals beliefs? This simple question has been at the heart of volumes of social science research for generations. Psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, and, more recently, neuroscientists have devoted great attention to the factors that underlie an individuals beliefs and attitudes. In the eld of political science, there has been special attention paid to the determinants of ones views on political issues, including considerable work on the factors that underlie views on environmental policy and climate change in particular. From individual policy preferences to broader political philosophies, the political science literature has identied many sources as inuences on a persons beliefs. One of the most studied aspects of political belief formation is the impact of party afliation on an individuals policy preferences. Scholars have long held that ones party identication represents a broader social identity and psychological attachment, and therefore positions on particular issues originate with the individuals party afliation (Green, Palmquist, and Schickler, 2002; Miller and Shanks, 1996). Indeed, many studies have shown a tight link between party identication and individual-level beliefs (Putz, 2002; Jacobsen, 2000). What remains contentious, however, is the causal relationship between partisanship and beliefs. Some scholars (Abramowitz and Saunders, 1998) nd evidence that positions on issues determine partisan afliation, while others (Carsey and Layman, 2006; Layman and Carsey, 2002) provide ndings that support partisanship as the causal factor. The affect of partisanship on perceptions of climate change and global warming policies has also been demonstrated in previous studies (Dunlap and McCright, 2008; Krosnick et al., 2000). During the U.S. debate in the late 1990s over possible ratication of the Kyoto Protocol, Krosnick et al. (2000) found that views on climate policy were affected by party afliation

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and that partisan effects were more pronounced among individuals who said they did not know much about the issue. Using data from Gallup Organization polls, Dunlap and McCright (2008) nd that since the late 1990s, there has been a growing divide between Democrats and Republicans in terms of opinion on the existence, seriousness, and causes of global warming. Along with partisanship, scholars have regularly pointed to individuallevel demographics as having a determinative role in shaping political beliefs. An individuals gender has been shown to signicantly impact an array of positions on public policies, with women more likely than men to support many social welfare functions (Howell and Day, 2000). Economic circumstances have been linked to public beliefs on political issues such as immigration reform (Citrin et al., 1997), and educational attainment has been shown to have a signicant impact on beliefs regarding policies related to gender and racial inequality (Schuman et al., 1997). Geographic factors have been found to play an important role in shaping public opinion, with signicant differences in attitudes related to a respondents area of residency (Erikson, McIver, and Wright, 1987). The literature on public opinion regarding environmental issues and policy seems to conrm the importance of many of the demographic factors that permeate the broader literature. In particular, individual-level characteristics such as gender, age, and income often predict variation in views on the environment, including global warming (Jones and Dunlap, 1992; Krosnick et al., 2006; Wood and Vedlitz, 2007). More recently, a study by Hamilton and Keim (2009) found evidence that perceptions of global warming are signicantly related to actual temperature changes in the respondents area of residence But while a considerable amount of literature has focused on discovering the correlates of public opinion on policy matters, the understanding of why certain socioeconomic and political factors are related to political beliefs is less well developed. To address this deciency, psychologists and neuroscientists have found evidence that political beliefs are tied to both cognitive and physiological traits. Many studies have shown ones political beliefs are linked to a need for cognitive closure (i.e., the need to avoid uncertainty) and personal worldviews (Chirumbolo 2002). From a physiological perspective, there is some evidence that individual-level characteristics such as general sensory sensitivity can affect a persons political views (Oxley et al., 2008). In addition to the various individual-level characteristics that may determine ones political beliefs, exposure to various stimuli has also been shown to shape individual-level views on political matters. Scholars have found evidence that various forms of political communication (e.g., campaign ads, speeches, news coverage) affect the attitudes and beliefs of individuals who have been exposed to such material (Ansolabehere and Iyengar, 1994). However, the effects of various stimuli may be limited by a number of ve realism and attitude attribution. Macoun psychological biases such as na and Paletz (2009) found that conservative individuals tended to attribute

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studies that had ndings supporting liberal viewpoints to the political manipulation of liberal researchers, while being less likely to claim conservative leaning ndings were affected by researchers with conservative beliefs. Returning to the literature on public opinion regarding global warming, the impact of various types of evidence (i.e., stimuli) on individual beliefs is not nearly as developed within the scholarship as is the work on the correlates of environmental opinion. While the previous studies of the predictors of opinion on environmental issues have demonstrated signicant connections between various demographic characteristics and beliefs (Dunlap and McCright, 2008; Wood and Vedlitz, 2007; Krosnick et al., 2006), these works have failed to look more closely at the reasons why individuals say they believe or do not believe in global warming. The popular media has paid great attention to the issue of climate change during the last decade, with stories regularly examining such factors as changing weather patterns, melting polar ice, stronger hurricanes, and more severe droughts (Nisbet and Myers, 2007). For the millions of Americans who indicate belief that climate change is real, it is important to understand not only who they are (e.g., younger, Democrats, higher educated), but what factors have convinced them that the planet is warming. For the smaller, but still substantial, number of U.S. citizens who do not accept global warming as a reality, it is equally important to discern the reasons for their disbelief. Clearer understanding of these views can prove valuable in discerning public support for adoption and implementation of various policy options across levels of government, as we have begun to explore in subsequent papers. In this article, we seek to understand how both underlying demographic factors and various pieces of evidence related to global warming may be shaping U.S. attitudes and beliefs regarding this matter. Furthermore, we hope to gain a better understanding of how individual-level characteristics such as partisan afliation interact with various types of evidence regarding climate change. To accomplish this goal, we elded a telephone survey of 2,176 Americans in conjunction with the 2008 National Survey on American Public Opinion on Climate Change and Policy Options (APOCCPO). The survey, which was conducted in September 2008, included both a national sample of adult Americans and oversamples from four diverse states: California, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The methodology and sample sizes for the surveys are presented in Table 1. These states were selected to maximize diversity according to trend of greenhouse gas emissions growth and level of state climate policy development (Rabe, 2008). In this survey, individuals were asked a variety of open- and closed-ended questions that were designed to identify: (1) their belief and disbelief in climate change; (2) the factors that determine belief; and (3) the factors that determine disbelief in climate change. The survey took place after a decade of active climate policy development at the state and local levels and at a point where both the 2008 presidential candidates had endorsed expanded federal policy engagement.

Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming

TABLE 1
Survey Methodology and Sample Sizes Method Fielding dates Weighting Sample National Virginia Pennsylvania California Mississippi

781

Random-digit dialing (RDD) telephone survey of U.S. households September 824, 2008 All data weighted to reect U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for age, sex, educational attainment, and income Sample Size Margin of Error 603 4% 660 4% 307 6% 304 6% 302 6%

Individual-Level Determinants of Belief in Climate Change

A central departure point for any examination of public opinion on the issue of global warming involves measurement of the publics belief that global warming is actually occurring. As the issue has evolved over the past two decades, there has been signicant debate in the public forum regarding the reality of global warming. Although the scientic community has become more uniform in its acceptance of anthropogenic-induced climate change (IPCC, 2007), debates within the political and media realms have continued and intensied. Nevertheless, 7 out of 10 individuals in our survey indicated that there is solid evidence that the Earth is warming. This nding is generally consistent with recent surveys by the Pew Research Center (2006), which found about three out of four Americans believe that evidence indicates that global warming is occurring (see Table 2). Our survey found that belief in the warming of the planet is fairly consistent across various regions of the United States. More specically, res-

TABLE 2
Is There Solid Evidence the Earth is Warming? Pew June 2006 Yes No Not sure 70% 20% 10% Pew Jan. 2007 77% 17% 6% Pew April 2008 71% 21% 8% APOCCPO Sept. 2008 72% 17% 11%

QUESTION WORDING: From what youve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past four decades?

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TABLE 3

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Is There Solid Evidence the Earth is Warming? N Yes (%) 72 69 75 69 74 No (%) 17 16 13 16 12 Not Sure (%) 11 15 12 14 13

National Pennsylvania Virginia Mississippi California

603 307 660 302 304

idents from four different states (Virginia, California, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania) maintained very similar views on the issue of global warming, with about 7 out of 10 residents in each of these states indicating belief that the Earths temperature is rising (see Table 3). Given the fairly signicant economic, social, and political differences across these states, the consistency of public opinion on the existence of global warming is notable. Geography does not seem to play a large role in determining an individuals belief in global warming; however, underlying demographic factors appear to impact the likelihood of an individuals belief that the planet is warming. As can be seen in Table 4, factors such as gender, age, educational attainment, and race have moderate effect on an individuals acceptance that the planet is warming. In general, being younger, college educated, a female,
TABLE 4
Belief in Global Warming by Selected Demographics Yes Overall Republican Democrat Independent Male Female White Not white College educated Noncollege 1844 4564 65 and older 72% 53% 83% 74% 66% 76% 68% 84% 76% 67% 75% 73% 68% No 17% 34% 5% 17% 24% 12% 20% 7% 16% 18% 15% 18% 20% Not Sure 11% 13% 11% 9% 10% 12% 12% 10% 9% 14% 11% 10% 12%

N 5 603. QUESTION WORDING: From what youve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past four decades?

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and of a minority race marginally increases the likelihood that an American will believe that temperatures on Earth are increasing. However, we nd the strongest factor predicting ones belief in global warming is partisan afliation, thus conrming previous research on the partisan gap in climate change opinion (Dunlap, 2008). Both Democrats and independents are signicantly more likely than Republicans to believe that the average temperature on Earth is getting warmer, with members of the GOP nearly 30 percent more likely than Democrats to believe that global warming is not occurring. Our results, along with those of earlier studies, demonstrate substantial and widespread belief in global warming among Americans, but there is signication variation in their views on what is causing the planet to heat up. For most individuals who believe in global warming, the activities of humans play at least a partial role in causing the planets increased temperature. Our survey found that 77 percent of Americans who believe in global warming attribute the increased temperatures either completely to anthropogenic activities (36 percent) or to a combination of human activities and natural cycles (41 percent). Less than one out of ve believers in global warming attribute the environmental changes completely to natural causes (see Table 5). As with overall belief in global warming, there is also a substantial partisan gap in terms of perceptions of its causes among individuals who believe that the planet is warming. Republicans are over twice as likely as either Democrats or independents to attribute climate change completely to natural patterns (see Table 6). Such wide variation is not found across any other demographic categories, reected in rather modest differences identied among classications based on race, gender, educational attainment, and age.

The Factors that Cause Belief in Global Warming

The simple identication of the correlates of beliefs in global warming provides part of the complex picture of public opinion on this matter, but
TABLE 5
Public Perceptions of the Causes of Global Warming (Asked Only of Individuals Who Believe the Earth is Warming) Human Causes 36% Natural Causes 18% About Equal 41%

N 5 435. QUESTION WORDING: Is the Earth getting warmer because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels or mostly because of natural patterns in the Earths environment?

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TABLE 6

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The Causes of Global Warming (Believers Only) A Combination (Vol) 41% 39% 34% 49% 46% 38% 42% 34% 39% 44% 42% 39% 45%

Human Activity Overall Republican Democrat Independent Male Female White Not white College educated Noncollege 1844 4564 65 and older 36% 23% 47% 30% 32% 39% 35% 39% 40% 32% 39% 39% 26%

Natural Patterns 18% 34% 15% 16% 18% 19% 18% 21% 18% 18% 12% 19% 23%

Not Sure (Vol) 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 6%

N 5 435 individuals who indicated they believe global warming is occurring.

does not tell us much about the actual reasons that lead individuals to accept or deny the existence of this phenomenon. Our ndings indicate that individual-level characteristics such as partisanship affect views on global warming, yet what are the reasons that a Democrat may be more likely than a Republican to claim that global warming is real? This section examines the role that several factors beyond individual-level characteristics play in shaping the views of Americans on climate change. Previous research has provided evidence that personal experiences (Ewart, Place, and Sibthorp, 2005), media coverage (Iyengar and Kinder, 1987), and scientic evidence (Neuman, 2004) have helped determine the belief patterns of Americans on a number of subjects. In this case, we seek to identify the relative impact of experiences, evidence, and media coverage on an individuals belief in global warming. Most popular explanations for increased public acceptance of global warming have rested on a number of key factors. First, in recent years, there has been considerable scientic evidence published that indicates signicant climate change is occurring. This includes declining polar ice and retreating glaciers throughout the planet. The 2007 Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, indicates substantial evidence that mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined in both hemispheres. Additionally, land-based ice sheets in Greenland have experienced signicant loss of mass and have very likely contributed to sea level rises over the last decade (IPCC, 2007). The striking time series visuals of retreating glaciers that have been shown regularly on media outlets may

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be a particularly strong form of evidence for Americans who believe what they see rather than what they are told. In turn, computer models of the Earths atmosphere have become increasingly aligned regarding the warming of the planet. According to the IPCC, there is high agreement and much evidence that there will be further warming in the 21st century that will be larger than those observed during the 20th century (IPCC, 2007). The increasing condence in the computer models among the scientic community may help engender greater public condence in the reality of climate change. Despite persistent skepticism about the accuracy of scientic evidence among certain segments of the population (i.e., evangelical Christians), Americans traditionally render substantial deference to science and technology (Miller and Kimmel, 2003). Third, Americans personal experiences with higher temperatures may also be adding to their belief in climate change. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2006 was the hottest year on record (113 years) in the United States, with 2007 the eighth hottest and 2008 the ninth hottest. NOAA also noted prolonged heat waves during recent summers and record warm winters in many northern areas of the nation (NOAA, 2008). Although there is debate within the scientic community over whether these records can be attributed to global warming, exposure to hotter than normal temperatures may be contributing to individual acceptance of global warming. Previous research on the formation of environmental attitudes has shown that personal experiences with the environment (e.g., witnessing negative environmental events) affect attitudes toward environmental protection (Ewart, Place, and Sibthorp, 2005). Fourth, individual perceptions regarding global warming may also have been affected by major climatic events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Climate scientists have hypothesized that hurricane strength would intensify as the planets oceans became warmer during a period of global warming and that, therefore, the likelihood of major storms hitting the United States would increase over time (Trenberth and Shea, 2005). When Katrina struck the Gulf Coast, there was signicant discussion in the media about the storm, or at least its intensity, being related to global warming. Such hurricane activity may have contributed to some Americans belief in global warming. Fifth, the considerable domestic and international response to Al Gores 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth may have persuaded Americans that the Earth is experiencing human-induced climate change. The lm was seen by millions in the United States and earned a box ofce take of $25 million. The heavy attention given to the movie, including the awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize and an Academy Award to its lead character, could have persuaded viewers that climate change is indeed real. The potential for more severe and widespread droughts has also been prominently mentioned as an effect of climate change. Many climatologists

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have projected that climate change will likely lead to intensied droughts in many areas, including arid regions like the U.S. West (Gertner, 2007). These warnings regarding the link between climate change and droughts came at the same time that the southeastern United States was in the midst of its worst drought in over a century and drought conditions were growing more severe in California and other western areas of the United States (NOAA, 2009), The conuence of these warnings about the effect of climate change on droughts and the actual drought conditions across areas of the nation may have persuaded individuals of the arrival of global warming. Finally, the relationship between the decline in polar species and climate change has been widely discussed in the media. Numerous studies in recent years have projected that the loss of Arctic sea ice will result in the collapse of polar bear populations (U.S. Geological Services, 2007). Past research on charismatic megafauna such as bears and whales has shown that public sympathy for theses creatures is associated with elevated levels of public support for environmental protection (Barney, Mintzes, and Yen, 2005; Goodwin and Leader-Williams, 2000). Given the symbolic nature of the worlds largest predators threatened status and substantial media coverage of this issue, the projections of species decline may be important in swaying individual belief in climate change. In our survey, we attempted to measure the relative impact of each of the previously mentioned factors on individuals who believe in climate change through a variety of questions and formats. These included an open-ended query in which respondents were asked to identify the primary factor that caused them to believe that temperatures on Earth are increasing. The results show that Americans identify three factors as most responsible for their belief in global warming (see Table 7). About one in ve individuals who believe that the planet is warming indicated that melting glaciers and polar ice has had the largest role in establishing their view on the matter. Another one in ve identied their personal observations of warmer temperatures in their local communities as the largest contributing factor to their belief in global warming, with just under a fth of Americans citing changing weather patterns and more intense storms as the key reasons they believe in this climate shift. When individuals were asked to indicate the impact of various factors on their belief in global warming, a trend similar to the results from the openended question is observed (see Table 8). Declining glaciers and polar ice, along with warmer local temperatures, were among the issues most identied as strongly affecting individual beliefs in global warming. Individuals also noted weather events and patterns such as severe droughts and hurricanes as having a strong impact on their acceptance of global warming. The results of our surveys at the state level indicated a number of signicant differences in terms of the factors that lead individuals to believe in climate change. For example, residents of Mississippi were signicantly more likely than the national average to report that the strength of hurricanes hitting the United States had a strong effect on their belief in global

Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming

TABLE 7

787

What is the Primary Factor that Has Caused You to Believe that Temperatures on Earth Are Increasing? Factor Melting glaciers and polar ice Warmer local temperatures/personal observation Changing weather patterns/stronger storms Media coverage/literature on issue Scientic research Al Gore documentary Pollution/human activity Declining species Natural patterns Not sure/no specic reason Other Percent Responding 19 19 18 15 9 2 4 o1 o1 12 o1%

N 5 435 individuals who indicated they believe global warming is occurring. Question asked in an open-ended format.

warming. This nding may be linked to the recent history of large hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast. Similarly, in states such as California and Mississippi, which have been hit with severe droughts in recent years,
TABLE 8
The Effect of Various Factors on Individual Belief in Global Warming Very Somewhat Not Too No Not Large Large Large Effect Sure Declining glaciers and polar ice throughout the globe Warmer temperatures in your area during recent years Computer models that indicate the Earth is getting warmer The strength of hurricanes hitting the United States Al Gores documentary An Inconvenient Truth Milder winters in your area Declining numbers of polar bears and penguins Severe droughts in areas across the United States 63% 39% 30% 46% 20% 40% 35% 45% 25% 35% 35% 30% 21% 38% 29% 35% 4% 14% 13% 12% 6% 8% 9% 9% 5% 10% 4% 3%

12% 10% 9% 4%

25% 27% 11% 3% 13% 14% 8% 2%

N 5 435 individuals who indicated they believe global warming is occurring. QUESTION WORDING: For each factor I mention please indicate if it has had a very large, somewhat large, not too large, or no effect on your view that the Earth is getting warmer.

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TABLE 9

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Factors Strongly Affecting Individual Belief in Global Warming by States National PA VA MS CA N 5 435 N 5 212 N 5 495 N 5 209 N 5 219

Declining glaciers and polar ice Warmer temperatures in your area Computer models that indicate warming The strength of hurricanes Al Gores documentary Milder winters in your area Declining numbers of polar bears Severe droughts in areas of the U.S.

63% 42% 30% 47% 21% 36% 40% 47%

58% 37% 31% 50% 22% 45% 42% 49%

63% 39% 30% 46% 20% 40% 35% 45%

48% 56% 23% 64% 17% 54% 34% 55%

68% 44% 32% 51% 30% 29% 44% 58%

Shading indicates 10 percent or greater deviation from national mean.

residents are much more likely than the national average to cite this factor as a strong reason for their belief in a warming planet. Conversely, Mississippi residents were less likely than the national average to note that computer models strongly affected their belief in global warming, while Californians were more likely than other Americans to claim that Al Gores documentary An Inconvenient Truth had a major impact on their views about the reality of global warming (see Table 9). As with overall belief in global warming, partisan afliation is signicantly related to the impact that a factor has on an individuals belief in climate change. Democrats are substantially more likely than Republicans to identify most factors as strongly affecting their belief that the Earth is warming. Only observations of warmer temperatures in the respondents area of residence drew similar responses from Democrats and Republicans, with the strongest partisan divides found on factors such as Al Gores documentary and changes in the Arctic region. It is important to note that these large partisan divisions are among individuals who have indicated global warming is real. In essence, these Republicans and Democrats share common beliefs about the existence of global warming but indicate different factors have led them to that conclusion (see Table 10). To further examine the role that partisanship plays in terms of the acceptance of various types of evidence regarding global warming, we conducted an ordered logistic regression test on the national-level sample of believers (N 5 435) to control for other important demographic attributes of survey respondents.1 In addition to party afliation, we
1 We chose to use an ordered logistical regression because our dependent variables are measured using four-point ordinal scales ranging from very large to no effect. Not sure responses were dropped from the ordered logit tests. Independent variables are considered to

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TABLE 10

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The Effect of Select Factors on Individual Belief in Global Warming by Party Afliation (National Sample N 5 435) Strong Effect Declining glaciers and polar ice n Warmer temperatures in your area Computer models indicating warming n The strength of hurricanes hitting the United States n An Inconvenient Truth n Milder winters in your area n Declining numbers of polar bears and penguins n Severe droughts across the U.S. n D R D R D R D R D R D R D R D R 72% 47% 42% 43% 33% 21% 50% 31% 32% 7% 39% 28% 50% 29% 56% 33% Moderate Effect 20% 33% 27% 23% 35% 38% 33% 28% 25% 12% 29% 29% 29% 19% 30% 40% Small Effect 5% 8% 18% 14% 15% 16% 7% 12% 9% 9% 12% 20% 10% 13% 8% 11% No Effect 2% 5% 10% 17% 8% 11% 4% 22% 10% 38% 17% 21% 5% 26% 5% 14%

n Statistically signicant association at 95 percent level of condence. We employ a chi-square test of association to measure the relationship between partisan afliation and the effect of each factor on an individuals belief in global warming. A 95 percent condence level is employed to determine statistically signicant relationships. NOTE: Shading indicates difference between Democrats and Republicans of at least 10 percent.

control for the respondents age, educational attainment, sex, income, race, and region.2
have a statistically signicant effect on the dependent variable if the t scores from the ordered logit reach a 95 percent condence level. 2 Independent variables are measured in the following manner. Measure Dependent Variables Factors inuencing beliefs in global warming Independent Variables Age Educational attainment Political party Gender Income Race Northeast states Southern states Western states 1 5 strong effect; 2 5 moderate effect; 3 5 small effect; 4 5 no effect 1834 5 0; 3564 5 1; 65 and over 5 2 high school or less 5 0; some college 5 1; college degree 5 2 Democrat 5 0; Republican 5 1 male 5 0; female 5 1 040K 5 0; 40k to 80K 5 1; over 80 K 5 2 white 5 0; nonwhite 5 1 northeast states 5 1; nonnortheast states 5 0 southern states 5 1; nonsouthern states 5 0 western states 5 1; nonwestern states 5 0

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The results of the ordered logit provide evidence that even when controlling for key socioeconomic factors, partisanship has the most widespread effect on determining if a piece of evidence will increase the likelihood that an individual believes in global warming. For seven out of the eight factors tested, partisanship had a statistically signicant effect on belief in climate change, with no other socioeconomic indicator signicantly related to more than four factors. As was found through the chi-squared tests, Democrats who believe in global warming are more likely to indicate that they were affected by the various factors tested than are Republican believers. The only factor with which partisanship did not have a statistically signicant association was higher local temperatures. Gender had a statistically signicant effect on ve factors, with women more likely than men to report that warm local temperatures, hurricanes, declining polar bears, the Gore documentary, and droughts have increased their belief in global warming. Educational attainment maintained a statistically signicant relationship with three of the factors tested in the study. Less-educated individuals are more likely than their higher-educated counterparts to claim that warm local temperatures affected their belief in increased global temperatures, while higher-educated individuals are more likely to report that their views on climate change were inuenced by computer models and the documentary An Inconvenient Truth. An individuals race inuenced the impact of four factors on perceptions of global warming, with white respondents more likely than nonwhites to claim that declining glaciers and polar species convinced them that climate change was happening, and nonwhites more likely than whites to indicate that milder winters and warmer local temperatures led them to accept that global warming is happening. Family income affects the impact of a number of factors regarding belief in global warming, with lower-income individuals more likely than wealthier individuals to report that hurricanes and droughts made them more likely to acknowledge climate change. Finally, regional afliation exerts an effect on individual beliefs in climate change, with the views of individuals living in the South and Northeast signicantly inuenced by hurricane strength, while Southerners and those living in the western United States had their belief in global warming strengthened by severe droughts (see Table 11).3 Partisanship can play a major role in determining both beliefs in global warming and the degree to which factors exert inuence on that belief; however, other individual characteristics can mitigate those effects at the state level. In particular, a dominant state-level factor may overwhelm the generalized
3 In the ordered logit regression, the Midwest region was dropped in order to avoid perfect multicollinearity. The states and district included in each region are as follows. Northeast (12) ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC South (14) WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK Midwest (12) OH, IN, IL, MI, WI, IA, MN, SD, ND, MO, NE, KS West (13) MT, WY, CO, NM, AZ, UT, ID, NV, CA, OR, WA, HI, AK

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effect of partisan afliation. We nd that in Mississippi, Republicans are signicantly more likely to report that hurricanes strongly affected their belief in global warming than the national averages for both Democrats and Republicans, as indicated in Table 12. Mississippis recent experience with devastating hurricanes appears to have signicantly enhanced the likelihood that Republicans in the Magnolia State believe in climate change. We further examined the factors that shaped public attitudes toward climate change through a series of statements with which respondents could agree or disagree. These statements were drawn from media accounts that portrayed different controversies that have arisen in U.S. and international deliberations over climate change. Each of these presented a declarative statement that challenged the existence of global warming; thus agreement with any of the statements would indicate the respondent had reservations about either the existence of global warming or the way the problem is being portrayed. The overall results, presented in Table 13, provide evidence that most Americans disagree with the major claims that are being put forth to challenge the existence of global warming. We found that disagreement was greatest with the statement, the Earths atmosphere is too large for mans activity to change the climate (69 percent). There was also majority disagreement with statements including scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interests (58 percent) and there is not enough scientic evidence to support claims that the Earth is getting warmer (58 percent). In contrast, respondents were more evenly divided in reaction to the statement that the media is overstating the evidence about global warming, reected in the fact that 31 percent strongly disagreed, whereas 24 percent strongly agreed. A majority of Americans disagreed with all the statements presented in Table 14, but there is a very signicant difference between those who believe in global warming and those who do not. More specically, among residents of the United States who do not believe that the Earth is warming, there are high levels of strong agreement with the various statements presented to them. Conversely, very few Americans who believe in global warming offered strong agreement with any of the statements regarding climate issues. The partisan divide that has permeated our earlier ndings is also evident in terms of agreement with statements that question the validity of climate change, as reected in Table 15. Republicans were generally twice as likely as Democrats to agree that anthropogenic global warming was unfounded or overstated in responding to these ve statements. The divide between Republicans and Democrats is largest in terms of the statement regarding the media overstating global warming evidence, with 71 percent of Republicans agreeing that the media overstates evidence about climate change in comparison to only 30 percent of Democrats who maintained this belief. These differences may reect some of the long-term variation in media trust among Democrats and Republicans, with GOP loyalists more likely to generally mistrust the media than their Democratic counterparts (Jones, 2004).

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TABLE 11

Results of the Ordered Logistical Regression Between Selected Demographic Criteria and Factors Inuencing Individual Belief in Global Warming (National-Level Sample of Individuals Who Believe in Global Warming, N 5 435)
Computer Models Gore Docum. b t b t B Mild Winters b t b t Hurricane Strength Declining Polar Species t

Declining Glaciers

Warmer Local Temps

Severe Droughts b t

Partisanship Education Age Race Income Gender South Northeast West N Pseudo R2

0.769 11.4 0.036 0.82 0.01 0.24 0.38 4.3 0.09 1.8 0.13 1.9 0.139 1.4 0.04 0.40 0.068 0.70 416 0.148

0.08 .88 0.19 3.5 0.02 .41 0.68 6.3 0.09 1.6 0.40 4.8 0.43 3.8 0.18 1.7 0.37 3.6 411 0.167

0.34 3.2 0.68 6.6 0.82 6.2 0.37 3.5 0.93 8.6 0.40 4.7 0.21 3.5 0.08 1.3 0.23 3.1 0.08 1.3 0.09 1.5 0.06 1.1 0.33 5.1 0.29 4.6 0.11 1.4 0.02 0.24 0.12 1.9 0.02 0.29 0.04 0.31 0.06 0.53 0.16 1.1 0.27 2.3 0.48 3.9 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.63 0.16 2.6 0.04 0.54 0.01 0.17 0.08 1.1 0.14 2.7 0.32 2.8 0.11 1.1 0.32 3.3 0.50 6.8 0.19 1.3 0.39 4.2 0.23 1.8 0.36 2.9 0.36 2.3 0.12 0.95 0.20 1.5 5.8 6.1 0.05 0.43 0.12 0.93 0.15 0.89 0.36 2.7 0.50 3.7 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.32 0.09 0.68 0.46 2.7 0.39 2.8 0.47 3.3 0.22 2.1 412 421 416 423 422 417 0.10 0.172 0.157 0.08 0.181 0.203

Social Science Quarterly

Shading indicates prob.o0.05.

Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming

TABLE 12

793

The Effect of Select Factors on Individual Belief in Global Warming: Increased Hurricane Activity Strong Effect (%) D R Mississippi (N 5 209) D R Pennsylvania D (N 5 212) R California (N 5 219) D R Virginia (N 5 495) D R National (N 5 435) 50 31 44 73 66 28 63 39 49 34 Moderate Effect (%) 33 28 28 18 20 42 23 14 33 22 Small Effect (%) 7 12 12 1 5 15 4 14 8 20 No Effect (%) 4 22 11 3 2 13 5 21 7 18

We also see that partisan differences regarding agreement with the statements about the validity of global warming transcend individual belief in this phenomenon. Table 16 provides evidence that among believers and nonbelievers alike, partisan afliation plays a major role in determining how
TABLE 13
For Each Statement Please Indicate If You Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Somewhat Disagree or Strongly Disagree Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Agree Agree Disagree There is not enough scientic evidence to support claims that the Earth is getting warmer. Scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interests. The Earths atmosphere is too large for mans activity to change the climate. Any recent warming on Earth is the result of natural trends and not the activities of man. The media is overstating the evidence about global warming.
N 5 603.

Strongly Not Disagree Sure 39% 4%

20%

18%

19%

19%

19%

20%

38%

5%

10% 21% 24%

13% 19% 22%

22% 22% 20%

47% 31% 31%

8% 8% 4%

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TABLE 14

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Strong Agreement with the Statements by Individual Belief in Global Warming Believe in Global Warming (N 5 435) There is not enough evidence to support claims that the Earth is getting warmer. Scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interest. The Earths atmosphere is too large for mans activity to change the climate. Any recent warming on Earth is the result of natural trends and not the activity of man. The media is overstating the evidence about global warming. 11% 12% 4% 11% 13% Do Not Believe in Global Warming (N 5 103) 61% 47% 33% 58% 64%

TABLE 15
Agreement with Statements Concerning Individual Belief in Global Warming Republican There is not enough evidence to support claims that the Earth is getting warmer. Scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interest. The Earths atmosphere is too large for mans activity to change the climate. Any recent warming on Earth is the result of natural trends and not the activity of man. The media is overstating the evidence about global warming. 61% 60% 35% 57% 71% Democrat 25% 26% 15% 30% 30%

the issue of climate change is viewed. Again, even among Republicans who believe that global warming is real, there is signicantly more skepticism about the evidence and portrayal of the issue, and this divide is greatest in terms of media overstating the evidence about global warming.
A Reason Not to Believe

Although a majority of Americans now believe in global warming, about one out of ve individuals in the United States does not believe that the planet is warming. Respondents who indicated that they do not believe the Earth is warming were asked for the primary reason that underlies this

Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming

TABLE 16
Agreement with the Statements by Individual Belief in Global Warming Democrat Republican

795

Believer Nonbeliever Believer Nonbeliever There is not enough evidence to support claims that the Earth is getting warmer. Scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interest. The Earths atmosphere is too large for mans activity to change the climate. Any recent warming on Earth is the result of natural trends and not the activity of man. The media is overstating the evidence about global warming. AVERAGE 17% 23% 11% 24% 21% 19% 75% 51% 51% 75% 73% 65% 37% 44% 23% 41% 52% 39% 89% 73% 50% 83% 94% 78%

position. The results show that four out of ve individuals cited their personal observations of stable temperatures in their area of residency as the key reason for not believing that the planet is warming. Additionally, one out of ve individuals who do not believe in global warming cited a belief that any warming reects natural uctuations and not a long-term trend, with about another one in ve citing either not enough evidence (11 percent) or disproving evidence (8 percent) as the main reason behind their position (see Table 17). The ndings also suggest that the primary reasons that individuals do not believe in climate change varies across area of residency. For example, nonbelievers in Mississippi are more likely than their counterparts in Pennsylvania, California, or Virginia to claim their personal observations are the primary reason that they do not believe temperatures on Earth are increasing. Meanwhile, California nonbelievers are more likely than respondents from other states to claim that the lack of scientic evidence supporting global warming led them to their conclusion on this subject (see Table 18).
Conclusions

U.S. public opinion regarding global warming has changed in fairly substantial ways in recent years. After years of gradual increases in the percentages of U.S. residents believing in global warming, there was a sharp

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TABLE 17

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What is the Primary Factor that Makes You Believe that Temperatures on Earth Are Not Increasing? Factor Personal observations Natural patterns explain change Not enough scientic evidence Evidence that disproves global warming No particular reason Media has misled Other reason Percent Responding 42 19 11 8 5 3 12

N 5 103 (only individuals who indicated that they did not believe in global warming).

increase in public acceptance of this phenomena in 2007. But just as belief in climate change reached record levels, there appeared to be some retrenchment in acceptance during late 2008 and early 2009 (Saad, 2009). These rather abrupt changes in opinion raise many questions regarding the causes of the shift, with speculation regarding factors such as increased media coverage and the economic crisis offered as explanations for the variation (Saad, 2009; Hamilton et al., 2008). While these factors may indeed underlie the most recent shifts in opinion, they do not provide broad-based evidence about the reasons that underlie views on climate matters. We have sought to remedy this situation by providing direct measures of the reasons that Americans give for their positions on the existence of global warming. Our ndings suggest that belief in global warming is shaped by many different types of evidence, with personal experiences particularly potent as a stimulus for acceptance of climate change. For the majority of Americans who think the planet is warming, their perceptions of hotter weather or more severe storms in their states appear to be leading them to a belief that global warming is real. The physical changes on the planet are also helping convince Americans that climate change is occurring, with melting polar ice, retreating glaciers, and severe droughts commonly identied as major reasons why individuals believe that global warming is happening. We also nd evidence that conrms the generally accepted impact that partisanship has on belief in climate change. Individuals identifying themselves as Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe that global warming is occurring and that it has been at least partially induced by human activity. Although these ndings support some previous research on this subject, our ndings regarding partisan variation contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of this subject. Our results indicate that even when Republicans and Democrats share a belief, they differ on the factors that have caused that belief. More specically, Democrats are much more

Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming

TABLE 18

797

What is the Primary Factor that Makes You Believe that Temperatures on Earth Are Not Increasing?
Natural Patterns Explain Change National N 5 103 Pennsylvania N 5 50 Virginia N 5 86 Mississippi N 5 48 California N 5 37 19% 21% 26% 21% 21%

Not Enough Media Evidence Scientic Personal Has that Evidence Observations Misled Disproves 11% 17% 17% 8% 25% 42% 28% 25% 47% 15% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 8% 9% 9% 5% 8%

No Particular Reason Other 5% 5% 9% 5% 10% 12% 17% 10% 10% 16%

likely than Republicans to claim that their acceptance of global warming was affected by most forms of evidence that was not produced through their own observations (e.g., declining polar ice and species), but when it comes to personal experiences with weather changes (e.g., warmer temperatures), Republicans are as likely as Democrats to attribute their beliefs in global warming to changes that they have personally observed. This reliance on personal observations among Republicans is consistent with their substantial skepticism regarding the way that global warming is projected by both the media and the scientic community. Our research has helped ll in some of the holes in the literature regarding public opinion on global warming, but it also raises some interesting new questions. For example, if Republicans are generally less likely to be inuenced by most forms of evidence regarding climate change, what is leading many to still arrive at the decision that global warming is real? Our ndings suggest that personal experiences with changing weather have had a fairly strong effect on Republicans who believe in global warming, but there may be other factors that are proving equally important in shifting Republicans toward a belief in this phenomenon. Finally, if the most recent data indicating some retrenchment in belief and concern about global warming represent a signicant shift in U.S. attitudes toward this issue, it will be important to identify changes in the perception of the evidence supporting global warming. If overall belief declines, is it the result of decreasing acceptance of the evidence about global warming, or instead because of some other individual-level characteristics, such as heightened attention to economic distress, or increased partisanship effects? Such questions deserve further examination. Within months of the completion of the survey, climate change policy gained new saliency at the federal level. Under President Barack Obama, the Environmental Protection Agency declared carbon dioxide an air pollutant

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potentially subject to regulation under federal clean air legislation. In June 2009, the House narrowly passed a 1,482-page bill that would introduce a carbon cap-and-trade system and take many other steps to attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Signicant controversy and partisan divides were evident as Congress engaged this proposal, including rancorous committee hearings and oor debate that also surfaced as the venue shifted to the Senate. In essence, the very types of partisan divides that we found among the U.S. citizenry in late 2008 were on full display in the halls of Congress in subsequent months.

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