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situation in Pakistan is increasingly explosive. The floods are a natural calamity.

But if a large portion of the population, especially the workers, peasants and toiling masses, are now suffering hunger and lack of water and shelter, it is because of the criminality of the countrys capitalist elite and their imperialist backers. They have plundered the people, while failing to provide elementary public infrastructure. Cases of cholera due to the non-availability of drinking water are spreading. In the one-fifth of the country that has been flooded, the population continues to be besieged. Livestock and crops have been destroyed over a vast area. Most of the roads linking the four provinces are ruined. Anger is growing steadily among the people against the government, the ruling class, and US imperialism. Washington is watching the situation in Pakistan after the flood very closely. The US military is determined to expand its intervention in Pakistan and under the guise of providing humanitarian aid is now trying to doing so. That the US is maneuvering to advance its predatory geo-political interests in the region is underscored by the fact that the US, despite its massive presence in the region, had delivered next to no aid to the flood victims. .
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Slum-dwellers in Model Town, Lahore The largest natural disaster in Pakistans history, the Indus Valley floods affected 21 million people. They deprived millions of their homes, swamped hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops, and drowned a significant portion of the countrys livestock.

According to International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), many agricultural areas are still submerged, although the flooding ended from four to six months ago, depending on whether one is talking about the countrys north, where the floods began, or the southern province of Sind, through which the Indus passes before emptying into the Arabian Sea. Because many fields remain under water and farmers have lost seed, livestock and implements, agricultural production may be significantly impacted, driving up food prices and spreading hungerand not just in 2010-11. If the crops may be lost for successive years, said the IFRCs Konoe, that may develop into some sort of social unrest and political turmoil.. The devastating floods ravaged approximately 5.4 million acres of Pakistans most fertile crop land, resulting in $3 billion worth of damage. Approximately 200,000 acres of sugar cane and 200,000 acres of rice were destroyed by the floods. Some 500,000 tons of stocked wheat were lost along with 300,000 tons of animal fodder and stored grain. The widespread destruction of crops and the continuing submersion of much of Pakistans agricultural lands have led to food shortages and sharp price hikes for basic food staples. These increases come on top of those that are being caused by international price gyrations. Recent months have seen sharp increases in world food, oil, and fertilizer prices. The State Bank of Pakistan recently raised its inflation estimate for the current fiscal year, from a range of 13.5 to 14.5 percent to between 15 and 16 percent, and chided the Pakistan Peoples Party-led national coalition government for excessive budgetary borrowing, particularly from the central bank. According to the Express Tribune, High government expenses financed through borrowing from the central bank, a proposed reduction in energy subsidies and rising international prices of commodities have been cited as the reasons behind the higher rate of expected inflation.

Boy collects trash in a slum located in Model Town, Lahore. Child malnutrition has been and continues to be a serious problem throughout the country. In Punjab, Pakistans largest province, 17 percent of children under the age of five were malnourished even before the floods. In Pakistans poorest province, Baluchistan, 27 percent of children under five were malnourished, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (the former North West Frontier Province) the figure was 13 percent. More than a third of Pakistani children were found to be underweight before the floods, and researchers reported that up to 44 percent of rural children were stunted.
. -5 Long-Term Effects of Pakistan Floods

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Max Fisher 1,944 Views Aug 27, 2010

After weeks of flooding in Pakistan displaced two million people and left more than 10 million at risk of disease outbreak because they lack access to clean water, renewed flooding in Pakistan has displaced an additional one million people over the past 48 hours alone, setting back a relief effort that has struggled due to paltry donations. The displaced, often physically inaccessible to

relief workers due to Pakistan's badly damaged infrastructure, face threats of disease, starvation, and dehydration. But even once the immediate humanitarian crises of the flood pass, experts say the floods will leave their impact on Pakistan and the region for years or decades.

Lost Infrastructure Sets Pakistan Back Years The New York Times' Carlotta Gall writes, "The destruction could set Pakistan back many years, if not decades, further weaken its feeble civilian administration and add to the burdens on its military. It seems certain to distract from American requests for Pakistan to battle Taliban insurgents, who threatened foreign aid workers delivering flood relief on Thursday. It is already disrupting vital supply lines to American forces in Afghanistan. The flooding, which began with the arrival of the annual monsoons late last month, has by now affected about one-fifth of the country nearly 62,000 square miles or an area larger than England, according to the United Nations." Rumors That Gov't Controlled Flooding Worsen Mistrust The Economist presents unverifiable but extremely disturbing rumors that, simply by circulating and regardless of their veracity, will worsen the already deep mistrust and hatred in Pakistan of the government. "Overall 1.2m homes have been damaged or destroyed. Some 800,000 people remain cut off from all help. Even where the government or aid agencies are present, the help is patchy at best, with many left to fend for themselves. Now dark (and plausible) accusations are circulating: the wellconnected chose which areas were purposefully flooded to relieve pressure elsewhere; aid is being diverted to constituencies of powerful figures; woefully feeble flood-protection infrastructure was left badly maintained." Devastated Agriculture Will Cause Years of Food Shortage The Economist reports, "Hunger may prove to be a bigger problem. An estimated 23% of the years harvest was washed away, including a quarter of the cotton crop, which matters to the economy. About 2.6m acres of cultivated land have been drowned, says Pakistans National Disaster Management Authority. Officials say that the rehabilitation will take three years, barring more floods. Food inflation will hurt even the driest of the poor." Taliban May Turn Against Humanitarian Workers While some militant groups such as Lashkare-Taiba have actively participated in recovery, the Associated Press' Shakil Adil reports that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, sometimes called the "Pakistani Taliban," may exploit this as an opportunity to attack Western aid workers. "The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday hinted they might attack the foreign aid workers. The militant network has a history of attacking aid groups, including agencies under the U.N. umbrella. Militant spokesman Azam Tariq said the U.S. and other countries were not really focused on providing aid to flood victims but had other motives he did not specify."

Pakistan floods: Damage and challenges


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A month of flooding across Pakistan has left millions of people homeless and devastated thousands of square kilometres of land. While the south battles new floods, in the north workers have begun clearing up as waters recede. The BBC's M Ilyas Khan assesses the huge task ahead.
Damage to infrastructure

Most damage to infrastructure has been caused in the mountainous north, where gushing currents washed away roads and bridges, cutting off large communities from each other and from the rest of the country.

Infrastructure in Punjab has been extensively damaged

Officials have appealed for dozens more helicopters to reach those in need. Roads, bridges and rail tracks have also been damaged extensively in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. Officials say more than 45 major bridges and thousands of kilometres of roads have been destroyed or badly damaged. Thousands of electricity poles and communications towers have been uprooted. In the north-west, a dam that irrigated nearly 200,000 acres of farmland has been destroyed. It is still unknown how much damage has been caused to the irrigation system in Punjab and Sindh provinces, which is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world and has been entirely flooded.
Economic impact

There are varying estimates of how much economic loss has been caused. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have agreed to carry out damage assessment which they hope to complete by mid-October.

But rough estimates by experts put total damage anywhere between $25bn and $40bn (16bn-26bn). Minister for Food and Agriculture Nazar Mohammad Gondal says some 20% of the country's total cropland has been inundated, causing a loss of $2.8bn. This is obviously going to impact on the country's textile and sugar industries. Experts expect inflation to exceed 12% in coming months, which will obviously hit the most vulnerable segment of the population the hardest. Textile exports, which constitute Pakistan's major foreign exchange earner, have exceeded the targets for this year but if agriculture is not put back on track, they may suffer and the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth may take a hit.
Food

Pakistan had a bumper crop last year so there is no immediate food shortage in the country.

A substantial amount of farmland has been inundated by flood waters

But millions of acres of pulse and rice crops have been washed away, which may lead to shortages and high prices. The situation may deteriorate if farmers miss the winter sowing season, which starts in September and continues until November. The loss of cattle may also affect supply and prices of dairy products. Experts estimate that 200,000 cattle have died in the floods, and some 10 million are now at risk due to shortage of water and upkeep.
Health issues

The time to treat immediate injuries caused by flashfloods is over. It is not yet known how many have been injured or maimed. Access to maternity health for those affected has also been negligible, though aid groups are now providing services in some accessible areas. The World Health Organisation estimates that a 5th of the country's health facilities have been damaged.

Tens of thousands of cases of diarrhoea have already been reported

Experts say flood related epidemics usually surface four to six weeks after the floods. UN officials say more than 70,000 cases of acute watery diarrhoea have already been reported, and there is a risk that many of these people may have actually contacted cholera. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani said last week that 3.1 million children in flood-affected areas were at risk of contacting water borne diseases. The situation might get worse if proper shelter, clean drinking water and latrines are not provided immediately. Damage to infrastructure is also going to impact delivery of health services as many people are unlikely to be able to access health facilities due to damaged roads and bridges.
Short-term rehabilitation

While floods are still ravaging vast areas in the southern Sindh province, the government is under pressure to return life in the provinces of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and Punjab to normal.

It has already announced incentives for canola sowing in the cotton belt of Punjab province next month when the flood waters are expected to recede. But the farming community has lost almost all its resources and the government will need to spend huge amounts of money to facilitate land preparation, and the provision of free seeds and fertilisers. If foreign assistance is not available, the government may have to cut its own development budget to provide assistance to farmers.
Security issues

Problems may worsen if the Taliban attack Western aid workers in the flood zone. There are already fears that security concerns may drive up the expenses of UN and other Western aid workers delivering relief in the region. It may also slow down relief work in the affected areas, intensifying the discontent already discernible among displaced people who believe the government has not done enough to help them. Sluggish aid delivery and delays in restoration of vital infrastructure are also likely to heighten fears of increased urbanisation. Tens of thousands of people displaced by the floods have taken refuge in urban centres of Punjab and Sindh. If the funding to rebuild their houses and the restoration of their infrastructure is slow, they may stay on in the cities. This will put pressure on already crowded Pakistani cities and exacerbate ethnic tensions, particularly in Sindh province.

Effects

Primary effects
Physical damage - Can damage any type of structure, including bridges, cars, buildings, sewerage systems, roadways, and canals. Casualties - People and livestock die due to drowning. It can also lead to epidemics and waterborne diseases.

Secondary effects
Water supplies - Contamination of water. Clean drinking water becomes scarce. Diseases - Unhygienic conditions. Spread of water-borne diseases. Crops and food supplies - Shortage of food crops can be caused due to loss of entire harvest. Trees - Non-tolerant species can die from water logging.

Tertiary/long-term effects
Economic - temporary decline in tourism, rebuilding costs, food shortage leading to price increase.

Potential long term effects


Food
The disastrous Floods have submerged 17 million acres of most fertile crop land of Pakistan, have killed 200,000 herds of livestock and have till yet washed away massive amounts of grain. A serious concern is that farmers will be unable to meet the fall deadline for planting new seeds in 2010, which in turn implies a massive loss of food production during 2011 and potential long term severe food shortages. The agricultural damages are estimated to be more than 2.9 billion dollars, according to recent estimates, over 700,000 acres of cotton crops, 200,000 acres of sugar cane and 200,000 acres of rice have been lost and moreover in addition to the loss of over 500,000 tons of stocked wheat, 300,000 acres of animal fodder and the stored grain losses. Agricultural crops such as rice, cotton and sugarcane and to some extent mangoes even were badly affected in Punjab, reported be a Harvest Trading-Pakistan spokesman. He called for the international community to fully participate in the,

revival of agricultural crops in order to get better GDP growth in the future as well as for rehabilitation process. Some people were seen to be engaging in profit-making in this disaster, raising their prices up to Rs.130/kg in affected Multan Division in South Punjab. Some have appealed to the Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited to write off all agricultural loans in the affected areas in Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa especially for small farmers. On September the 24th World Food Program announced that 70% of Pakistan's population does not have adequate access to proper nutrition. In rural areas of the country, Most of this population with less than adequate nutrition lives.

Infrastructure
The damages by the Floods have an estimated 2,433 miles of highway and 3,508 miles (5,646 km) of railway. Costs estimate for highway damages are approximately 158 million USD and the railway damages are 131 million USD. Any unique or large infrastructure damages will increase these estimates. And the Public building damages are estimated at 1 billion USD. The aid donors have presented an estimate that 5,000 schools have been destroyed.

Taliban insurgency
It was believed by the media that the flood would divert Pakistani military forces from fighting the Pakistani Taliban insurgents (TTP) in the northwest as they would be needed to help in the relief effort giving Taliban fighters a reprieve to regroup. Secondly, the argument was made that by helping flood victims, the US had an opportunity to improve its image in eyes of Pakistanis. The Pakistani Taliban also have engaged in relief efforts making inroads where the government was absent or seen as corrupt. As the flood may have dislodged many property markers, it is feared that governmental delay and corruption will give an advantage to the Taliban to settle these disputes swiftly. In August a Taliban

spokesperson asked the Pakistani government to reject Western help from "Christians and Jews" and claimed that the Taliban could raise $20 million to replace that aid. According to a US official the TTP had issued a threat saying that it would launch attacks against foreigners participating in flood relief operations. In response, the United Nations said it was reviewing security arrangements for its workers. The World Health Organization stated that work in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was already suffering because of the security concerns. However, an unverified Taliban spokesperson based in Orakzai told The Express Tribune: We have not issued any such threat; and we dont have any plans to attack relief workers." Nevertheless three American Christians were reported to have been killed by the Taliban on August 25 in the Swat Valley.

Political effects
Floods have been theorized to have future political consequences mostly due to public perception of governance inefficacies and it has been said that if the situation is not adequately addressed specially with fight against terrorism going on in Pakistan, it might lead to future political unrest. These political effects of the floods have been compared with that of 1970 Bhola cyclone.

Economic effects
On 7 September 2010, the International Labor Organization reported that over 5.3 million jobs have been lost due to the floods, emphasizing that "productive and labor intensive job creation programs are urgently needed to lift millions of people out of poverty that has been aggravated by flood damage". The crucial GDP growth rate of 4% prior to the floods may turn negative with the estimates ranging from -2% to -5% of GDP. Though the GDP growth may improve in 2011 and beyond, it will be several years before it can return to the 4% level of 2009. The loss of crops will hit the textile manufacturing which is the largest export sector of Pakistan. Furthermore, the loss of over 10 million heads of livestock's along with the loss of other crops will bring down

the total agricultural production by more than 15%. Toyota and Unilever Pakistan have said that the floods may sap growth, necessitating production cuts as people struggle to cope with the destruction. The chief executive of Pakistan's largest motor automaker Toyota (Pervez Ghias) described the economy's state as "fragile". Nationwide car sales were predicted to fall as much as 25% which would force automakers to reduce production in October 2010 from the pre-flood level of 200 cars per day. The milk supplies have also fallen by 15%, which will cause the retail price of milk to increase by Pak Rupees 4 per liter. Some investors have started to buy the devalued stock in the hope that they will rise again to give them profits in the future.

Damages:

damage figures :These damage figures indicate a total human death toll of 1,985 with 2,946 injured, 17 million people of 78 districts presently stand affected with over 100,000 Sq. Km of area swamped by the flood waters including over 20,000 Sq. Km of cultivated land. Road, bridge and rail network being the mainstay of communication links have been severely damaged besides colossal damage to the Housing Sector totaling 1,894,530 houses to date. A sizeable portion of livestock has been perished inflicting severe blow to the existing livelihood patterns of already marginalized communities who have lost their main and the only source of income and living. Likewise Health and Education sectors in the 79 affected districts have received major burnt of severe flash flooding. At present some 12,516 school

facilities and 579 Medical Health facilities have been destroyed at the countrywide level. Irrigation Sector: the Irrigation Sector which is the lifeline of country besides flood control network on Indus River Basin has also sustained huge loss due to some major breaches in river defense along main Indus river besides complete out flanking of some of the Head works like Munda Head works on River Swat in KPK.

Besides the above losses due to deferred maintenance, a large number of breaches in the Indus River embankments (prominently including in the Left Marginal Bund of Taunsa Barrage, Rangpur Canal, Muzaffargarh Canal, Jampur Flood Bund (Punjab), breaches in Tori Flood Bund, Ghouspur Bund, Beghari Sindh Feeder Bund, Old Ghora Ghat Bund, Haibat Loop Bund, MNV Drain, Khirther Canal, Moolchand Shahbundar Bund and Manchar Lake in Guddu Kotri downstream reach (Sindh) of Indus river) have resulted in widespread damage in terms of dislocation of communities, damage to infrastructure etc.