Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
09 April 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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09 April 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
388.40
270.90
396.00
Neutral
Buy
564
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
252.10
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
314
0.66
COBHAM
236.30
190.10
248.10
Neutral
Buy
280
0.83
MEGGITT
471.40
364.30
494.20
Neutral
Sell
397
1.32
1090.00
781.16
1135.00
Neutral
Neutral
1073
1.08
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1215.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1023
0.71
1661.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Sell
1508
0.50
Unde r Va lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
257.20
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
248
2.00
INCHCAPE
492.80
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
486
1.48
LOOKERS
95.00
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Neutral
102
1.24
PENDRAGON
22.00
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
32
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
277.20
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
39
Beta
1.93
679.70
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1204
1.17
1.87
46.30
25.29
55.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
73
266.10
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
21
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1645.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Sell
1043
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
537.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
581
0.55
DIAGEO
2017.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1769
0.55
SABMILLER
3405.00
2348.50
3552.50
Neutral
Buy
3924
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
369.00
267.60
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
672
#NA
CARCLO
381.25
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
405
0.74
2699.00
2050.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2145
1.04
252.90
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
355
1.00
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2279.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12088
1.44
VICTREX
1595.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1496
1.13
SYNTHOMER
202.00
127.40
239.50
Neutral
Neutral
218
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
222.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
86.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
233
Beta
0.52
BALFOUR BEATTY
225.70
225.70
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
965
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
264.40
114.00
280.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
444
1.50
BELLWAY
1234.00
660.00
1301.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1902
1.10
1941.00
1177.00
2093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3297
0.63
BOOT (HENRY)
168.00
115.50
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
341
0.83
691.50
399.30
751.00
Neutral
Sell
553
1.14
CARILLION
268.40
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
788
1.10
CLARKE (T)
55.38
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
265
0.82
276.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
557
0.56
1373.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
792
1.14
910.00
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1684
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
787.00
348.25
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2007
1.25
1165.00
1095.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3333
0.94
74.25
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
202
1.07
MARSHALLS
125.00
76.00
127.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
1.37
549.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3274
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
17.50
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
34
1.11
1004.00
532.00
1073.00
Neutral
Buy
1116
1.15
REDROW
184.60
107.30
195.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
288
1.05
SIG
151.50
82.30
162.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
466
1.74
3.88
3.88
19.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
47
0.89
85.75
40.28
93.50
Neutral
Neutral
93
1.58
TRAVIS PERKINS
1380.00
906.50
1465.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2575
1.97
WOLSELEY
3089.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5147
1.43
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1282.00
927.50
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
756
0.78
640.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
830
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
114.50
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
241
1.31
INVENSYS
344.30
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
337
1.42
LAIRD
208.50
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
78
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1596.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1155
1.01
RENISHAW
1729.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2343
1.26
SPECTRIS
2293.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Sell
2161
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.21
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.83
TT ELECTRONICS
165.75
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
393
1.59
XAAR
405.00
185.00
425.00
Neutral
Sell
227
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
82.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Neutral
89
1.26
BODYCOTE
501.00
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
497
1.61
CASTINGS
333.50
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
694
0.99
VESUVIUS
330.00
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
484
2.19
FENNER
369.80
329.30
456.50
Neutral
Buy
541
1.42
HALMA
496.60
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
393
0.76
423.75
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
312
1.37
1237.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Buy
1397
1.40
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
281.00
220.30
333.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
538
1.82
2824.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2609
0.99
243.20
177.00
251.80
Neutral
Sell
207
1.65
41.63
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Neutral
44
0.73
2616.00
1900.00
2734.00
Neutral
Sell
2292
0.84
VITEC GROUP
630.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
569
1.40
WEIR GROUP
2276.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2012
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
460.00
449.00
523.50
Neutral
Buy
684
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
274.90
248.60
298.30
Neutral
Sell
201
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
373.60
283.50
385.50
Neutral
Sell
225
0.58
TESCO
374.15
297.05
385.95
Neutral
Sell
283
0.69
66.00
18.88
78.75
Neutral
Sell
47
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1873.00
1167.00
1931.00
Neutral
Buy
2079
0.61
CRANSWICK
1015.00
732.50
1023.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2061
0.49
DAIRY CREST
414.80
290.40
444.00
Neutral
Buy
481
0.92
DEVRO
347.90
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
517
0.31
68.25
54.50
170.00
Neutral
Sell
-188
1.25
852.50
633.50
870.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1548
0.70
2745.00
2005.00
2831.00
Neutral
Neutral
2754
0.57
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
29.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.68
408.90
222.40
429.30
Neutral
Sell
349
0.53
1256.00
1000.00
1586.00
Neutral
Sell
947
1.27
620.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
271
0.94
31.18
12.67
35.00
Neutral
Buy
35
1.50
5.40
2.76
9.30
Neutral
Sell
1.08
31.00
19.50
44.75
Sell
Strong Buy
107
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
311.80
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
721.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1471
0.52
Target
Beta
46.50
38.00
65.55
Neutral
Strong Buy
79
1.24
KINGFISHER
290.00
254.10
306.10
Neutral
Buy
378
0.92
375.30
312.20
398.80
Neutral
Buy
498
0.64
59.50
42.00
71.00
Buy
Neutral
58
1.04
294.00
152.00
362.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.47
NEXT
4175.00
2896.00
4408.00
Neutral
Sell
3578
0.66
TED BAKER
1278.00
810.50
1354.00
Neutral
Sell
635
0.55
64.63
32.13
68.00
Neutral
Sell
49
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
147.50
124.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
118
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
788.50
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
582
0.40
OPTOS
145.75
145.75
279.25
Neutral
Buy
165
1.20
752.00
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
676
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
645.00
557.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
631
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
330.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
296
0.92
81.50
55.25
97.00
Neutral
Buy
104
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
885.50
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
539
0.74
CSR
467.90
194.60
492.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1255
1.16
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.50
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
47
0.90
449.90
383.50
705.00
Neutral
Buy
497
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
134.60
134.60
174.00
Buy
Strong Buy
632
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
170.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-504
0.91
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1315.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-719
0.54
AMLIN
416.50
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
-3030
0.46
BEAZLEY
211.20
132.50
219.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
2550
0.59
ADMIRAL GROUP
CATLIN GROUP
509.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Buy
754
0.29
HISCOX
539.00
379.26
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2061
0.48
830.50
659.00
864.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2868
0.31
108.70
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1659
0.40
NOVAE GROUP
455.00
345.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1878
0.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2233.00
1900.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3661
1.00
99.50
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Sell
71
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
302.40
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
748
0.99
815.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
620
0.38
GREENE KING
657.00
474.30
723.50
Neutral
Sell
581
0.91
LADBROKES
207.90
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Sell
173
0.93
1938.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1565
1.17
CARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
557.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
585
1.38
312.60
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
282
1.09
134.00
91.90
162.60
Neutral
Sell
98
1.25
10.25
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
44
1.25
156.00
111.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
485
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
451.20
269.20
468.00
Neutral
Sell
304
WETHERSPOON (JD)
534.00
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
702
0.69
WHITBREAD
2439.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1845
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
376.70
239.02
411.17
Neutral
Sell
264
0.86
MARSTON'S
131.00
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
25
1.20
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
296.70
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1128
1.24
CHESNARA
242.25
155.25
244.00
Neutral
Buy
344
0.70
167.80
106.00
175.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
195.70
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
170
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1029.00
660.00
1155.00
Neutral
Sell
919
1.70
481.10
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
413
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
115.63
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-538
0.36
874.00
635.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1509
0.54
44.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
135
1.01
698.50
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2930
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
956.50
672.50
970.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6455
0.98
INFORMA
501.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-64
1.53
ITE GROUP
272.20
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
215
1.44
ITV
121.20
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1164
1.54
1.26
CENTAUR MEDIA
JOHNSTON PRESS
14.75
4.88
15.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1530
1141.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
281
0.62
73.50
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2299
0.79
274.00
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
0.15
32.64
26.85
33.32
Neutral
Sell
-538
0.52
STV GROUP
133.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
241
0.78
ST.IVES
135.00
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
663
1.49
93.75
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-245
1.57
UBM
687.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1587
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
156.50
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1175
0.85
WPP
1034.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Sell
-453
1.34
HIBU
0.36
0.26
3.91
Neutral
Strong Buy
715
1.07
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1644.50
1639.50
2412.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2798
1.75
229.00
221.25
320.00
Neutral
Buy
267
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
990.50
952.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
919
1.43
1878.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3328
1.45
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
273.80
240.84
564.35
Neutral
Sell
28
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5295.00
4596.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2817
0.34
RIO TINTO
2991.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Buy
3334
1.51
5.00
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
161
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2309
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Neutral
983
1.88
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
1033.50
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1127.50
1000.50
1451.00
Neutral
Neutral
1217
0.81
BP
448.05
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1542
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
282.00
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-36
1.32
7.86
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.90
865.00
688.00
954.00
Neutral
Sell
455
1.32
76.38
55.00
158.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
299
1.36
385.00
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
289
1.45
2137.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
11424
0.86
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
374.40
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
250
0.52
1191.00
1138.00
1557.00
Neutral
Sell
911
1.05
848.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
809
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
112.50
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
PZ CUSSONS
380.40
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
313
0.69
4603.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4642
0.36
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.39
0.37
3.88
Buy
Sell
1.01
3302.50
2591.00
3340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7192
0.47
BTG
351.80
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
165
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
776.00
444.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
741
0.26
1530.00
1317.50
1550.00
Neutral
Neutral
1523
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.70
1.55
5.80
Buy
Sell
0.65
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.33
12.75
Strong Buy
Neutral
0.94
1945.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1314
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
44.75
33.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-97
0.71
VERNALIS
22.38
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
0.90
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
356.70
274.50
387.50
Neutral
Sell
-538
1.15
BRITISH LAND
549.50
467.10
585.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1509
1.03
Target
Beta
33.25
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
135
0.82
847.00
595.00
865.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2930
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2141.00
1689.00
2239.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6455
1.20
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
155.00
121.75
176.00
Neutral
Sell
-64
0.97
GRAINGER
131.50
83.10
140.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
215
1.54
CLS HOLDINGS
491.80
345.60
514.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1164
1.06
HAMMERSON
484.80
404.50
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1530
1.16
HELICAL BAR
237.75
164.00
249.75
Neutral
Buy
281
0.75
820.00
704.00
849.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2299
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
327.00
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
141.50
125.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-538
0.72
373.00
315.00
390.00
Neutral
Sell
241
0.41
330.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
663
0.35
62.75
32.50
70.00
Neutral
Sell
-245
1.17
SAVILLS
516.50
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1587
0.74
SHAFTESBURY
574.50
482.20
597.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1175
1.03
SEGRO
252.30
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-453
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
256.70
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
715
1.55
198.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-12
1.05
UNITE GROUP
314.30
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
31
1.75
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.38
1.00
3.00
Sell
Sell
-976
1.01
348.00
213.25
363.20
Neutral
Sell
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
114.30
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
117
0.76
2135.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1260
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
536.00
292.40
544.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1299
1.01
KOFAX
306.00
240.00
325.75
Neutral
Neutral
310
1.12
25.00
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Sell
23
0.83
644.00
426.17
706.00
Neutral
Buy
924
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
138.00
135.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
300
0.74
76.00
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-85
0.53
1866.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
1995
0.77
330.20
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
398
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
408.50
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
163
BREWIN DOLPHIN
206.90
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
120
0.72
10637.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9820
0.83
0.97
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.08
375.00
247.50
377.50
Neutral
Sell
167
CHARLES TAYLOR
173.50
132.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
97
0.69
1018.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
162
0.87
97.50
64.75
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
98
0.89
3.00
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
27
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
153.40
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
48
1.44
ICAP
292.70
281.40
384.00
Neutral
Sell
190
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
403.90
227.30
427.60
Neutral
Sell
197
INVESTEC
439.20
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
73
1.55
1258.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3759
1.12
88.10
63.25
119.70
Neutral
Neutral
91
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1465.00
1151.00
1532.00
Neutral
Sell
1105
0.73
SCHRODERS
2083.00
1166.00
2165.00
Neutral
Sell
1241
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1696.00
966.00
1745.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4100
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
222.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
289
0.93
AGGREKO
1746.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1259
1.03
AMEC
1056.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1110
1.04
584.00
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
308
1.62
1068.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
648
0.48
519.00
317.00
530.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.78
1290.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
803
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
375.63
214.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
435
0.38
CAPITA
869.50
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
506
0.50
51.00
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
66
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
824.00
616.00
852.50
Neutral
Sell
592
0.74
BERENDSEN
776.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
954
1.04
DE LA RUE
925.00
885.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
587
#NA
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
DIGNITY
1353.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
768
0.21
DIPLOMA
546.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
473
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
238.70
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
313
1.02
FILTRONA
708.50
428.00
744.00
Neutral
Sell
338
1.10
G4S
288.70
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Neutral
284
0.58
94.50
66.40
100.00
Neutral
Buy
118
1.09
HOMESERVE
192.20
137.50
252.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
474
0.93
INTERSERVE
465.80
270.10
510.50
Neutral
Buy
677
1.27
3373.00
2406.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1410
0.77
43.50
26.50
44.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
92
1.18
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.63
21.25
39.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
54
0.72
MENZIES (JOHN)
700.00
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1274
1.43
402.70
341.40
471.50
Neutral
Sell
311
1.41
MITIE GROUP
273.10
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
335
0.55
92.00
91.50
160.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.34
PAYPOINT
880.00
605.00
901.00
Neutral
Sell
672
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
209.30
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
276
1.32
REGUS
160.70
82.65
167.40
Neutral
Sell
105
1.44
95.85
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
54
1.24
518.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Buy
619
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
411.50
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
459
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
220.75
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
304
1.23
RPC GROUP
378.00
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
522
0.77
RPS GROUP
265.00
197.00
272.40
Neutral
Sell
242
1.50
SERCO GROUP
611.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
566
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
74.50
74.50
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
47.50
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Neutral
51
1.25
144.00
70.88
149.00
Neutral
Sell
50
0.56
56.13
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Neutral
60
0.92
332.00
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
606
0.86
74.50
42.00
75.00
Sell
Strong Buy
178
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
265.70
200.70
281.70
Neutral
Buy
310
40.40
27.28
42.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
0.69
677.00
390.80
710.50
Neutral
Sell
572
0.53
Beta
0.90
81.15
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Buy
120
1.24
1040.00
677.00
1065.00
Neutral
Sell
672
0.11
184.80
154.45
192.00
Neutral
Sell
157
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
255.50
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
189
395.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
436
0.99
CLARKSON
1580.00
1150.00
1585.00
Sell
Sell
1433
0.81
EASYJET
1023.00
471.00
1128.00
Neutral
Sell
638
0.74
200.90
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1025.00
535.00
1045.00
Neutral
Sell
372
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1444.00
1086.00
1513.00
Neutral
Buy
1750
0.89
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.30
NATIONAL EXPRESS
192.60
164.50
236.50
Neutral
Buy
236
1.34
NORTHGATE
311.25
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
588
1.41
STAGECOACH GROUP
296.10
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
344
0.90
57.13
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-38
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
369.80
306.30
375.60
Neutral
Buy
494
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
785.00
633.00
785.00
Neutral
Neutral
842
0.49
PENNON GROUP
645.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
785
0.58
SSE
1517.00
1294.00
1517.00
Neutral
Buy
1770
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1665.00
1507.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1518
0.34
706.00
594.00
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
673
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
09 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
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person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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