Iran's Nuc le ar Ambitions

Triumphant Institute of Management Education Pvt. Ltd. www.time4education.com

Iran: Bas icfac t-s he e t

Largest Shia republic; Force to reckon with

in the Islamic World Rivals Saudi Arabia for hegemony over the Muslim World Ruled by hard-line Islamic Clerical Administration since the 1979 Islamic Revolution

Iran: Bas icfac t-s he e t

Home to worlds largest second gas and fourth largest oil reserves Describes the U.S. (since 1979) and Israel as enemies of Islam U.S. views Iran as a major sponsor of terrorism part of Axis of Evil Situation compounded as hardliners are in power Mahmoud Ahmedinejad (prez)

Re as ons for Irans c onfrontation w ith theWe s t

Accused by the IAEA/U.S./EU of pursuing nuclear weapons; charge denied by Iran Tehran says its nuke program is peaceful & aimed at civil energy generation IAEA asks Iran open its nuclear facilities to inspections International demands for rollback of nuclear program ignored

Irans Nuc le ar Site s

Important s ide lights

Iran is a member of the NPT NPT forbids members other than the P5

from owning / pursuing nuclear weapons

Iran is also an IAEA member hence it should abide by its resolutions Iran is desperately trying to get into the WTO, a move stymied by the West, esp. the U.S.

Stateof the Ec onomy

GDP US$482 bn; contracted by 1% in 2012 GDP Per Capita: US$6419

4th largest oil reserves & 2nd largest oil exporter; 2nd largest gas reserves; energy contributes 25% to GDP FDI drying up because of sanctions; exchange value of
Rial is falling High misery index: unemployment at over 13% & inflation at over 25%

What about ne gotiations ?

Talks between Iran & E3 (Britain, France, & Germany) do not yield much E3, backed by the U.S., adopts carrot & stick approach Carrot: Will back Irans entry into the WTO Stick: Threatens Iran with eventual reference to UNSC for tightening economic sanctions

What about ne gotiations ?

2004 - Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear weapons program in return for E3's support of its WTO entry bid Tehran reneges on this accord after Mahmoud Ahmedinejad takes office Iran openly defies the IAEA/U.S./EU

What about ne gotiations ?

U.S. doesn't rule out military action against Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities Iran says that it won't give in to pressure tactics Russia proposes a way out: offers Iran to enrich uranium at nuclear plants in Russia Iran declines the offer

TheIs rae l fac tor

Iran calls for wiping Israel off the map of the world Tehran accused of supporting anti-Israel Islamic militant groups like the Hezbollah Israel hints at striking at Iran's nuclear facilities to destroy them Israel puts pressure on the U.S. for military strike

Impac t of U.S. Sanc tions

No country can buy energy resources from Iran Also sanctions have banned supply of nuclear-related technology & materials Imposed assets freeze on key Iranian individuals & companies No business/financial transactions with Iran; if any country/company is found violating this aspect, then such entity will be banned from US financial market

Impac t of US Sanc tions

Already crippling the countrys fragile economy Would lead to flight of foreign capital May not be able to sell oil and gas products its most important forex earner The above would have a spiralling effect on the economy pulling it down further into a severe crisis

What c ould happe n ne xt?

Like ly Sc e nario: Military action

Iran risks possible military confrontation with the U.S. & Israel An Iraq-type invasion by the U.S. (aided by Israel & NATO) could try and replace the current Hardliner administration A favourable dispensation in Tehran would make the U.S. job much easier While this appears far-fetched, it is being strongly considered by the U.S.

Like ly Sc e nario: I ran gives in

Impact of negotiations: Freeze its uranium enrichment program Abandons weapons pursuit Opens all nuke facilities to IAEA inspections Wins EU and U.S. support for WTO entry

Most unlikely to happen!