Daily Technical Report

April 15, 2013

Sensex (18243) / NIFTY (5529)

On Friday, our benchmark indices opened with a downside gap on account of poor results posted by IT giant INFOSYS. Thereafter indices traded in a narrow range to eventually close near the initial opening level. During the day FMCG, Power and Banking counters were among the major gainers whereas IT, Teck and Capital Goods stocks ended in the red. The advance to decline ratio was in favor of declining counters (A=1042 D=1261) (Sourcewww.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The 20-week EMA and the 20-day EMA are placed at 19012 / 5753 and 18716 / 5650 levels, respectively. The 89-week EMA and the 200-day SMA are placed at 18190 / 5500 and 18641 / 5650, respectively. The Lower Top Lower Bottom formation on weekly chart is still intact. We are observing a Spinning Top (only in Nifty) Japanese candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.
Source: Falcon:

Trading strategy:
The week was evenly dominated by both, the bulls as well as the bears. As expected, the indices precisely tested the mentioned support zone of weekly '89 EMA' and the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 18760 / 5663 (low on March 04, 2013) to 19755 / 5971(high on March 11, 2013), during the week. The weekly chart now depicts a' Spinning Top' (only in Nifty) Japanese candlestick pattern. An occurrence of such a pattern at the support level indicates uncertainty among market participants. Hence, a sustainable move beyond the high (18600 / 5611) of the pattern would open up possibilities of near term bounce. In this scenario, indices may go back to test 19061 / 5755 level. However, the price movement in the last two sessions does not bode well for the bulls.

Actionable points:
View Expected Targets Support levels Bullish Above 5545 5610 - 5654 5594 - 5477

A move below this week's low of 18173 / 5477 would trigger further pessimism in the market. As a result, indices may resume their negative trend and may slide towards 17976 17677 / 5441 - 5332. Broadly speaking, the indices are presently within the trading range of 18600 / 5611 18170 / 5475. Any sustainable move outside this range will dictate the direction of the market in the near term.

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April 15, 2013

Bank Nifty Outlook - (11410)

On Friday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note unlike our benchmark indices and showed strength throughout the session to close in the positive territory. The positive crossover in RSI momentum oscillator on the daily chart is still intact. We are now witnessing a Falling Wedge pattern breakout in the index implying a target of 12100 over the next few sessions. Hence going forward any dip in the index should be used as a buying opportunity. On the downside 11278 11154 levels are likely to act as support for the day. The stop loss for the trade should be placed at 10888 levels. Actionable points:
View Expected Target Support Levels Bullish Above 11443 11510 11591 11278 - 11154

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Source: Falcon:

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April 15, 2013

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INDUSINDBK INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT LUPIN M&M MARUTI NMDC NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SBIN SESAGOA SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS ULTRACEMCO S2 18,104 5,473 11,156 1,125 166 4,463 1,216 1,660 628 267 173 364 287 400 293 239 1,847 309 2,659 750 755 632 1,434 87 464 1,016 139 389 2,040 282 320 64 625 1,336 634 802 1,386 124 138 301 693 102 430 758 328 1,989 144 855 268 93 291 1,459 1,751 S1 18,173 5,501 11,283 1,136 171 4,562 1,240 1,691 642 270 176 369 290 403 297 243 1,876 313 2,695 763 760 638 1,445 89 471 1,031 142 395 2,169 287 324 67 632 1,348 647 812 1,397 124 140 305 703 104 436 767 337 2,036 146 863 271 94 295 1,485 1,783 PIVOT 18,256 5,523 11,363 1,144 174 4,641 1,259 1,710 651 274 179 372 292 407 302 246 1,898 315 2,716 772 766 642 1,454 91 476 1,041 143 399 2,397 292 329 69 637 1,365 655 827 1,414 125 141 308 711 105 445 774 345 2,066 147 872 276 95 299 1,505 1,804 R1 18,325 5,550 11,490 1,155 179 4,740 1,283 1,741 665 278 182 378 296 410 305 251 1,927 319 2,752 785 771 648 1,465 94 483 1,055 146 405 2,525 297 332 73 643 1,377 668 838 1,425 126 142 311 721 107 451 782 354 2,113 149 880 280 96 304 1,531 1,836 R2 18,407 5,572 11,570 1,163 182 4,818 1,301 1,760 675 282 185 381 298 413 311 254 1,949 321 2,773 795 777 652 1,474 96 488 1,065 147 410 2,753 301 337 75 649 1,394 676 852 1,441 127 143 314 729 108 460 789 362 2,143 151 889 284 97 308 1,551 1,856

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Daily Technical Report

April 15, 2013
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Ankur Lakhotia Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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