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401
15.401FinanceTheoryI
LectureNotes
AlexStomper
MITSloanSchoolofManagement InstituteforAdvancedStudies,Vienna
15.401
PartAIntroduction
Chapter 1: Introduction to Finance Chapter 2: Present Value
15.401
15.401FinanceTheoryI
AlexStomper
MITSloanSchoolofManagement InstituteforAdvancedStudies,Vienna
Agenda
15.401
Lecture1:Introductiontofinance
Motivation
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverivew
Howtomakeabusinessdecision?
Project
$15m A 0 $10m B $5m $5m $5m 1 2 3
Motivation
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
January1926toDecember2007 Statistics Mean Volatility Minimum Maximum TotalReturn* CRSPVWMarketReturn 0.95% 5.40% -29.01% 38.37% $2,583 UST-BillReturn 0.31% 0.25% -0.03% 1.52% $20
Note:*Basedona$1.00initialinvestmentinJanuary1926.
Motivation
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
1802-1997Realizedp.a.Returns Statistics 1YearHoldingPeriod: Maximump.a.Return Minimump.a.Return 10YearHoldingPeriod: Maximump.a.Return Minimump.a.Return 20YearHoldingPeriod: Maximump.a.Return Minimump.a.Return Source: Siegel (1998), Figure 2-1. USStocks 66.6% -38.6% 16.9% -4.1% 12.6% 1.0% UST-Bills 23.7% -15.6% 11.6% -5.1% 8.3% -3.0%
Whatisfinance?
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
_ Financeisaboutthebottomlineofbusinessactivities _ Abusinessactivityisaprocessofacquiringanddisposingassets
Real/financial Tangible/intangible
_ Allbusinessactivitiesreducetotwofunctions:
Growwealth(createvalue) Managewealthtobestmeeteconomicneeds
_ Financially,abusinessdecisionstartswiththevaluationofassets
Youcantcreateandmanagewhatyoucantmeasure
_ Valuationisthecentralissueoffinance _ Financialmarketsrevealsomeassetvalues
Whatisfinance?
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
3. Howhouseholdsmakefinancialdecisions?
Aframeworkoffinancialanalysis Corporatefinancialdecisions
(2)
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
(1)
Corporate Operations
(3)
Financial Manager
(1) Cashraisedfrominvestorsbysellingfinancialassets (2) Cashinvestedinrealassets(tangibleandintangible) (3) Cashgeneratedbyoperations (4) Cashreinvested (5) Cashpaidout(mandatory:debtpayments,discretionary:dividends,etc.)
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TaskofFinancialManager
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Afirmscashflows (1) Cashraisedfrominvestorsbysellingfinancialassets (2) Cashinvestedinrealassets(tangibleandintangible) (3) Cashgeneratedbyoperations (4) Cashreinvested (5) Cashreturnedtoinvestors(debtpayments,dividends,etc.) Managementdecisions---managecashflow(1),(2),(4),(5) _ Investment:(2)(3)(valuingrealassets) _ Financingandpayout:(1),(4),(5)(valuingfinancialassets) _ Riskmanagement:(1)and(5)(valuefinancialassets) Objective:Createmaximumvalueforshareholders. Soundbusinessdecisionsrelyonassetvaluation.
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ValuationofAssets
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Eachassetisdefinedbyitscashflow(CF)
Invest CF0 CF3
CF4 ...
Fundamentalvalueofanasset=Valueofitscashflow
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TimeandRisk
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Twoimportantcharacteristicsofacashflow: 1.Time
$1,000 today next year today $1,000 next year
Whichonedoyouprefer?---Timevalueofmoney 2.Risk
$1,000 $1,000 $0 $2,000
Whichonedoyouprefer?---Riskpremium Timeandriskaretwokeyelementsinfinance
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OpportunityCostofCapital Valuationofaproject:theory
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
OpportunityCostofCapital
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Lecture1:Introandoverview
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Shareholderunanimity
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Lecture1:Introandoverview
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Shareholderunanimity
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Conditionss.t.allshareholdersagreethatthefirmshouldmaximize themarketvalueofitsequity: Shareholdersconsumptiondependsonthefirmspoliciesonly throughtheirbudget. Shareholderscantimetheirconsumptionby borrowingandinvestinginfinancialmarkets. Shareholderscanusefinancialmarketstotradecontingent consumption(forallrelevantcontingencies). Perfectcompetitioninfinancialmarkets,andallshareholders havesimilaraccesstoallfinancialmarkets.
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FinancialMarkets
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Households
Labor Markets
Product Markets
Nonfinancial Firms
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FinancialMarkets
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Lecture1:Introandoverview
_ Financialmarkets-wherefinancialassetsaretraded
Moneymarkets:Short-termdebtsecurities
Short-term government, bank and corporate debt (T-bills, CDs, CPs, )
Capitalmarkets:Long-termsecurities
Government and corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, Stocks,
Derivatives:Securitieswithpayoffstiedtootherprices
Forwards and futures, options,
_ FinancialIntermediaries-Ownmostlyfinancialassets
Banks, insurance companies, S&Ls, Mutual funds, hedge funds, private equity,
_ Nonfinancialfirms-Ownmostlyrealassets _ Households-Ownbothrealandfinancialassets.
LectureNotes 2008JiangWang 19
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Example.Borrowmoneytobuyahome _ Acrossdifferentstatesoftheeconomy
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15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Lecture1:Introductiontofinance Lecture2:Presentvalue(principlesofassetvaluation)
B. Valuation
Lecture3:Fixedincomesecurities Lecture4:Commonstocks Lecture5:Forwardsandfutures Lecture6:Options
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Courseoverview C.Risk
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
D.CorporateFinanceApplications
Lecture10:CapitalBudgeting(capitalinvestmentdecisions)
FinalLecture:MarketEfficiency(puttingitalltogether)
Dofinancialmarketsalwaysworkwellindiscoveringprices? Wheredoesmoneycomefrominfinancialmarkets? Howshouldfinancetheorybeusedinpractice?
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Courseoverview Courserequirements
_ _ _ _ _
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
Lecturesandreadings(attendanceandparticipation)
AcidRaincasestudywrite-up
Midtermexam Finalexam Problemsets(optional) Facultyshould Cometoclassontimeandbewellprepared Provideclearandtime-appropriateexpositionofmaterial Manageclassdiscussionseffectively Cometoclassontimeandbewellprepared Contributetoclassdiscussions Refrainfromnon-classactivities(email,newspapers,etc.)
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ImplicitContract
_
Studentsshould
Howtogetthemostoutof401 Theoryvs.Practice
_ _ _
15.401
Introandoverview
Somehelpfulsuggestions
_ _ _ _ _ Doreadingsaheadoftime(skimtextbookchaptersinadvance) Takecopiousnotesduringlectures(lecturenotesarenotcomplete) Reviewthelecturesafterwardswithyourstudygroup Workonproblemsets---Financeisnotaspectatorsport Askquestions!!!
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Summary
15.401
Lecture1:Introandoverview
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