Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Decision this week on new grain storage tenders
An inter- ministerial group of the government of India is scheduled to meet on Thursday to take a decision on creation of more grain storage capacity. Sources informed Business Standard that if things fall in line, tenders for the creation of two million tonnes ( mt) of silo capacity would be floated next month. An empowered group of ministers had approved the creation of another two mt of silo capacity and the Food Corporation of India has planned to distribute this over 10 states. The silos will be created on either a public-private partnership (PPP) mode or a buildown- operate basis. After the Request for Proposal and Request for Qualification documents get approval, there would be action on the ground, said an official in the ministry of food. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 16, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18745 5689 53.97 88.72 1387

2.11 2.16 -1.06 0.01 1.93

2.84 3.53 -0.94 -5.82 -12.57

-3.19 -2.77 -0.74 -4.11 -12.69

9.29 8.85 4.56 -13.81 -15.89

.Source: Reuters

Monsoon may break earlier

The South-West monsoon is expected to break over the Kerala coast two to three days earlier than usual, says P.V. Joseph, eminent monsoon meteorologist and researcher. Joseph has been a former director of India Meteorological Department (IMD) and is professor emeritus in the atmospheric science department at Cochin University of Science and Technology. He told Business Line on Tuesday that the long-term mean date of onset of monsoon over Kerala was June 1. A cloud band with rain-bearing thunderclouds had formed over extreme South Bay of Bengal. This cloud band was expected to intensify and move northwards and give light to moderate rain in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and south Bay of Bengal during the next few days. This cloud band is called the pre monsoon rain peak, which is an indicator of the date of onset of SouthWest monsoon over the Kerala coast (Source: Business Line)

Madhya Pradesh soya output seen at record high

The land records commissioner in Madhya Pradesh has projected a record soya production of 8.2 million tonnes (mt) in 2012- 13, against 6.5 mt in 2011- 12. Soya acreage rose to 6.1 million hectares from 5.6 million hectares in 2011- 12. In its third and final forecast, the state land records department projected soya yield at 1,363 kg a hectare, against 1,123 kg a hectare in 2011- 12. Speaking to Business Standard, Soybean Processors Association of India spokesperson Rajesh Agrawal said, Since acreage of soya has not gone up and the yield may not rise much, this is unbelievable. DN Sharma, director of the Madhya Pradesh agriculture department, said, We have initiated the ridge- and- furrow method for soyabean. Ridge- and- furrow topography was a result of ploughing with non- reversible ploughs on the same strip of land, every year. Farmers plant the crop on the top or the side of the ridge in their fields, at a certain depth and a certain distance. (Source: Business Standard)

Export demand helps cardamom maintain its flavour

Good demand from both export and domestic markets has kept the cardamom prices nearly steady last week despite rise in arrivals at the auctions. Having lost hope of a rise in the prices, which have been ruling steady for several weeks, the growers/primary market dealers were releasing their stocks and that has created a surge in the arrivals. However, the rise in supply has not pushed the market down due to good export buying following arrival of good colour capsules of 7mm and above. Exporters are estimated to have bought around 120 tonnes of the material at Rs 850-875 a kg last week, P.C. Punnoose, General Manager, CPMC. told Business Line. (Source: Business Line)

Wheat procurement in Punjab gathers steam

Wheat procurement in Punjab picked up momentum as government agencies and private millers procured more than 0.36 million tonnes of wheat till last evening. Of the total procurement of 0.36 million tonnes of wheat across all the procurement centers of Punjab, government agencies procured 0.36 million tonnes till date, whereas private traders procured 4,070 tonnes of wheat. A spokesman of the Punjab government today said strict instructions have been issued for payments to be made to farmers within 48 hours of lifting of the wheat from mandis. The state government has constituted Dispute Redressal Committees in every mandi/ purchase center. Besides, the food and civil supplies department has established 24- hour control rooms at its headquarters in Chandigarh as well as in district offices, where farmers can contact in cases of emergency. The Punjab Mandi Board has also made arrangements for water and shade for the farmers, the spokesman added. He said the state government has made all arrangements to ensure lifting of the wheat within 72 hours of purchase. (Source: Business Standard)

Board to push for coconut oil as bio fuel

The good old coconut oil may soon be in the list of emerging bio fuels in the country, if the latest initiatives of the Coconut Development Board are any indication. The board is currently exploring the possibilities of using coconut oil as a fuel through tie-ups with academic and research institutes, according to T.K. Jose, Chairman of the Board. We already had extensive discussions with scientists of IIT-Chennai on the possibility of including coconut oil in the bio fuel research studies, he said. The Mechanical Engineering department of IIT-Chennai has made advancements on research in bio fuels, he said adding that revolutionary changes are possible in this sector if 10 to 20% coconut oil is used in diesel vehicles or 20% of the diesel vehicles start using coconut oil as fuel. Coconut oil, as bio fuel, has great prospects since the price of diesel is on the rise commensurate with international price. Jose said that a time has come now when both the prices of diesel and coconut oil are matching. (Source: Business Line)

India Likely to Export 7.5 mt of wheat: FAO

India's wheat exports are likely to touch a record high of 7.5 million tonnes in the current marketing year ending June 2013 on account of record crop and larger carry over stocks, while many other exporting nations are expected to face tight supplies, an FAO report said. In 201112 marketing year (July-June), shipments from the country remained lower as wheat export was allowed via private trade only after lifting the ban on the same in September 2011, according to market experts. One striking feature of this season is the exceptional size of wheat exports by India, which are forecast to reach 7.5 million tonnes, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said its latest report. Wheat shipments from India, the world's second biggest grower, are anticipated to surge on account of estimated record harvest and larger carry over stocks, it said. (Source: Economic Times)

China poultry sector losses exceed $1.6 bln on bird flu scare
China's poultry sector has recorded losses of more than 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) since reports emerged of a new strain of bird flu two weeks ago, an official at the country's National Poultry Industry Association told Reuters on Tuesday. Authorities have slaughtered thousands of birds and closed live poultry markets in Shanghai and Beijing in an attempt to reduce the rate of human infection and allay growing fears about the H7N9 virus. However new cases are being reported daily. In total 14 people have now died from the bird flu virus and 63 have been infected, the official Xinhua news agency said on Monday. (Source: Reuters)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana May futures declined sharply by 1.97% on Tuesday on account profit taking at higher levels. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockiest have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also supporting an upside in eh prices. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets. Chana Spot prices settled marginally lower by 0.05% on Tuesday.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3604 3592 Prev day -0.58 -1.86

as on April 16, 2013 % change WoW MoM 0.56 3.91 0.53 5.37 YoY 1.91 -0.47

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 17, 2013 Resistance 3650-3700

3590-3555

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to trade on a mixed note as increasing arrivals at higher levels may offset stockiest demand. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels as higher supplies is seen offsetting the summer demand. The spot prices settled 0.09% higher on Tuesday while May Sugar futures settled 0.74% lower on account of broad sell off in commodities. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3063

as on April 16, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.12 0.84 MoM -1.76 YoY 5.27

Rs/qtl

2909

-0.58

0.62

-3.80

4.98

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 505.6 400.22

as on April 16, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -2.71 1.24 -0.16 1.64 MoM -5.30 -4.20 YoY -15.31 -21.76

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Raw Sugar futures gained the most in more than five weeks in New York and settled 1.24% higher on speculation that harvest delays will limit supplies in Brazil, the worlds top producer. Liffe sugar however, settled 2.7% lower on Tuesday. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 17, 2013 Resistance 2960-2980

2920-2900

Outlook
Sugar may consolidate at lower levels in the coming week. Supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures slipped further on Tuesday on account
of weak export demand for soy meal. The spot as well as the May Futures settled 0.57% and 2.40% lower on Tuesday. Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y. The annual soy meal exports in the financial year 2012-2013 (AprilMarch) were 34,33,916.546 tons, decreased by 12.28 percent.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4000 3951 722.1 718.3 Prev day -0.57 -0.93 -0.13 -0.28

as on April 16, 2013

WoW -2.58 -4.66 -0.65 -0.75

MoM 11.33 8.04 5.49 4.09

YoY 23.00 22.68 -4.35 -4.60

Source: Reuters

as on April 16, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1412 48.98 Prev day 1.18 1.66 WoW 1.15 -2.00 MoM -1.02 -1.86 YoY -1.00 -12.16

International Markets
After a sharp fall on Monday, Soybean futures gained 1.18% on Tuesday on concerns over yield in Argentina. However, sentiments still remain weak on account of smooth supplies from south American nations coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak. National Oilseed Processors Association data released yesterday showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 16, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.70 0.33 -3.26 -1.12

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2284 460.4

MoM -2.73 1.41

YoY -35.02 -25.59

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO declined on
Tuesday on account of weak Malaysian palm oil futures coupled with weakness in the oilseed complex. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asian country calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crude palm oil for May. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 15 inched down 4% to 648,275 tonnes from 675,210 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 15.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3525 3462 Prev day -0.59 -2.12 WoW -2.38 -3.32

as on April 16, 2013 MoM 0.38 0.26

Source: Reuters

YoY -8.91 -10.93

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard May Futures settled 0.59% lower

on account arrival pressure. Increasing arrival pressure of new crop pressurized prices at higher levels. Reports of unseasonal rains in the north have supported prices. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade sideways with a negative bias as weak meal export demand coupled with bird flu in China and supplies from South American region are expected to pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets cushion sharp fall in the prices. Soy oil and CPO may trade sideways to lower on account of weak exports data coupled with comfortable stock levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 17, 2013 Support 691-685 3700-3650 3470-3435 454-458 Resistance 704-710 3830-3870 3530-3560 466-469

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures declined yesterday due to higher supplies from Karnataka. Weak exports demand has also pressurized prices. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. However, low stocks coupled with robust demand for the Kerala crop supported the prices at lower levels. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled a well as the May Futures settled 0.12% and 1.63% lower on Tuesday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,850/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36273 36030 % Change Prev day -0.12 -1.00

as on April 16, 2013 WoW 0.29 0.38 MoM -2.44 -3.39 YoY -3.51 -4.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 17, 2013 Support 34660-34350 Resistance 35300-35600

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 17 tonnes while off takes were reported at 17 tonnes on Tuesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note with a negative bias today. Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices. However, good interstate demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support the prices. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures declined sharply yesterday on account of long liquidation coupled with higher arrivals. However, higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices last week. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also hit the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot as well as the May Futures settled 1.02% and 2.84% lower on Tuesday. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13610 13340 Prev day -1.02 -1.42

as on April 16, 2013 % Change WoW -1.22 -3.60 MoM 1.19 -0.15 YoY 8.93 12.55

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 30,000 tn on Tuesday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.57 -0.51

as on April 16, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures may extend the losses of the previous session today. Higher arrivals of the new crop may also pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand may cushion sharp fall. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6983 6988

WoW 6.58 2.49

MoM 6.68 3.37

YoY 112.24 103.14

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures declined sharply yesterday hitting the 4% lower circuit on account of profit taking coupled with broad selloff seen in the commodity markets. However, good domestic as well as overseas demand coupled with lower output supported prices in the spot.. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot as well as the May Futures settled 0.57% and 3.98% lower on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 7,000 bags and 20,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade lower today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, Fresh export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels and prevent sharp downside. Crop damage and lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 17, 2013

Support 13000-12850 6930-6830 Resistance 13300-13500 7160-7270

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas settled 1.6% lower while MCX Cotton settled 1.9% lower on Tuesday. Mills are avoiding buying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market sentiments have also added downside pressure. However, lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices. Lower availability coupled with expectations of export demand from China in the coming days have also supported the prices at lower levels. The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 883.5 17920

as on April 16, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW MoM -1.67 -5.05 -10.30 -1.97 -5.03 -5.03 YoY -9.20 6.29

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 83.35 92.2

as on April 16, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.16 -1.52 -0.97 0.05 MoM -5.94 -1.71 YoY -6.80 -5.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton fell for a second session as investors continued to liquidate and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade sideways with downward bias during the intraday. Weak global market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills may pressurize prices. However, lower supplies from farmers may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low which may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 17, 2013 Support 875-865 17640-17410 Resistance 915-934 17960-18200

www.angelcommodities.com