Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
AMERICAN INTEREVENTION IN PAKISTAN: HOW FAR IS THE GEORGE W. BUSH ADMINISTRATION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAILED PROSPECTS OF PEACE AND STABILITY IN PAKISTAN? CANDIDATE NAME: LI CHUN HO CANDIDATE NUMBER: 001408-032 SESSION: MAY 2012 SUBJECT: POLITICS WORD COUNT: 3971
Abstract
American foreign policy towards Pakistan over the last 50 years has mainly seen Pakistan as an ally to sustain and reach American policy aims, notably the fall of Communism. Whether their relationship has affected Pakistans state of peace and stability is crucial in underlining if their diplomatic ties entirely rested on the ideological needs America cherishes and the financial and military needs Pakistan requires to defeat the growing radical Islamic extremism. To examine this hypothesis, the research question, American Intervention in Pakistan: How far is the George W. Bush administration responsible for the failed prospects of peace and stability in Pakistan? will be explored. The essay considers: -The dangers Al Qaeda pose to America and their significance; -The nature of Pakistani-American relations before 9/11; -The importance of Pakistans conflict with India and their nuclear capabilities before 9/11; -The problems between the army and the government of Pakistan that affects stability before 9/11; -How the Bush Administration responded to 9/11 and its plans for Pakistans role; -Effects of American intervention in Pakistan on its long term peace and stability outcomes; and -If alternatives with a lesser impact on peace and stability were attainable. The conclusions were reached by employing primary and secondary sources. Primary sources included speeches, interviews and memoirs of officials engaged in influencing Pakistani-American ties. Secondary sources were chiefly defined by monographs on American foreign policy towards Pakistan and Pakistans politics by native authors from both countries. The essay argues that Bushs Administration was largely responsible for the failed prospect of peace and stability in Pakistan, since the War on Terror was declared. This conclusion was the result of examining prior American government foreign policy which instigated a violent Pakistan, the change of governmental and military leaders in Pakistan who compromised security, and the Bush Administrations policy towards Pakistan. Word count: 300
Page 2 out of 17
Contents
Title page ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Al Qaeda and their attacks on America .............................................................................................. 5 Pakistani and American ties prior to 9/11 ........................................................................................... 5 Pakistan, India and their nuclear capabilities prior to 9/11 ................................................................. 7 The Army and Government in Pakistan prior to 9/11 ......................................................................... 7 9/11, American response and plans for Pakistan ................................................................................ 8 Effects of American intervention in Pakistan during the War on Terror .......................................... 10 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Appendices........................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Appendix 2: ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 3: ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 4: ........................................................................................................................................... 17
Page 3 out of 17
Introduction
For many years, diplomatic relations bridging Pakistan and the United States has been described as turbulent with weak predictability. During George W. Bushs presidency, the War on Terror in 2003 was steeply dependent on Pakistans logistical, geopolitical and army enthusiasm. This was because Al Qaeda enjoyed prominent presence in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although American intervention primarily aimed at eliminating the terrorist elements Al Qaeda and the Taliban cherished that would harm America, there were secondary reasons. They included reducing the threat insurgents and private Islamic armies presented towards undermining the security of Pakistans nuclear arsenal and other important military installations. Although peace and stability have common connotations, their significance in Pakistans context is interpreted differently. Peace can be defined as the privilege of enjoying life at any given point in a place without possible threats against human life because of the strong predictability of the future imposed by governmental norms and society.1 Time span is not considered as a factor. Stability, on the other hand, takes account of duration of time, and questions the possibility of a sudden change in events, from a time of peace to a declaration of emergency, and perhaps war. 2 It is likely to have peace in an unstable society, such as Pakistan. Although there was no formal declaration of a war in Pakistan during the War on Terror, the actions from the strong presence of Islamic armies and the Taliban have mitigated stability. This was attributed by their frequent skirmishes between the borders of Pakistan and India, especially prominent in Kashmir. Their threat to Pakistani nuclear security carries the perilous potential to strike the match instigating an unintended nuclear war. This definition may also connote with political stability, as military coups in the past were also candidates for threatening stability. In order to answer the question, American Intervention in Pakistan: How far is the George W. Bush administration responsible for the failed prospects of peace and stability in Pakistan? consideration must be given to the American policy executed by past administrations as well as the prior stability of Pakistan. The essay will explore: -The dangers Al Qaeda pose to America and their significance; -The nature of Pakistani-American relations before 9/11; -The importance of Pakistans conflict with India and their nuclear capabilities before 9/11; -The problems between the army and the government of Pakistan that affects stability before 9/11; -How the Bush Administration responded to 9/11 and its plans for Pakistans role; -Effects of American intervention in Pakistan on its long term peace and stability outcomes; and -If alternatives with a lesser impact on peace and stability were attainable. To argue justifiably whether the Bush administration was responsible for the failed prospects of peace, crucial decisions made by Presidents prior to Bush that affected the US-Pakistani relations will be considered. Word count: 465
1 2
Culture of Peace (2005) Definition of Culture of Peace [online]. Culture of Peace [cited 13 November, 2011]. Available from <http://www.culture-of-peace.info/copoj/definition.html> World Bank Group (no year) Political stability and absence of violence. World Bank: United States of America. Available from <http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/pv.pdf>
th
Page 4 out of 17
CNN (2001) Transcript of President Bush's address - Page 4 CNN [online]. CNN [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://articles.cnn.com/2001-09-20/us/gen.bush.transcript_1_joint-session-nationalanthem-citizens/4?_s=PM:US>
N. Asthana., A. Nirmal (2009) Urban Terrorism: Myths And Realities. Pointer Publishers: India. Page 35
Page 5 out of 17
advantage to the United States prompted President Carter to name Pakistan as the, frontline State in the global struggle against communism.5 Under the Reagan Doctrine, Pakistan received funds from the Central Intelligence Agency to end Soviet occupation in Afghanistan from 1979. The Reagan Doctrine funded anti-communist fighters to roll back the communists. Operation Cyclone was the biggest CIA funded operation, supplying $5.3 billion worth of army aid and training to facilitate Afghan mujahedeen in defeating Soviet troops. However, following successful Soviet withdrawal in 1988 by Pakistans part, and later the liberation of Muslim republic from the Soviet Union, supplies to Pakistan abruptly ended, leaving behind armed men prepared for future jihads, and in part contributed to the rise of the Taliban. Because Reagan was heavily affixed in defeating the Soviets, calls for Pakistan to end its nuclear weapons program that began in January 1972 or its assurances not to enrich uranium to weapons grade were fruitless in outcome and casual in manner. During the Clinton Administration, Pakistan helped America capture and extradite Islamists who followed bin Ladens fatwa against America, notably Mir Aimal Kansi, who killed two CIA employees, and Ramzi Yousef, who carried out the World Trade Center bombing, respectively in 1993. No help was ever returned to Pakistan for economical and political grounds. Perhaps the worst humiliation Pakistan faced was during an army reception between American General Ralston and Pakistani General Karamat on August 20th, 1998 where General Karamat, seen by America as representing Pakistans interests, was informed of a series of tomahawk strikes that would go over Pakistani airspace into Al Qaeda training camps in America in 10 minutes time.6 How agitated Pakistan was in being told under such short notice was intensified upon learning the missiles destroyed 2 Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence training camps, missing some of the Al Qaeda targets, further undermining the trust and respect between the two nations. It was also during this administration that America became harsher on the emerging nuclear weapons program that Pakistan was building. President Clinton established precautions against proliferation of nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union, treating Pakistan similarly with the threat to label Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism by 1992. President Clinton was keen for the United States Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, whose outcome was sensitive towards nuclear proliferation between India and Pakistan. President Clintons assertion that, our national security people were convinced that, unlike the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War, India and Pakistan knew little about each others nuclear capabilities and policies for using them implies that the nuclear conflict between the two South Asian countries placed the world at greater peril compared the nuclear brinkmanship during the Cold War.7 Although a discussion with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the ongoing Kashmir dispute with India in July 1999 yielded plans to de-escalate the tension was encouraging without nuclear warfare, Pakistans ties with America otherwise went dire. In October, an army coup ousted Prime Minister Sharif as head of state, replaced with General Pervez Musharraf. This drastic change to civilian
Library of Congress, Federal Research Division (2001) Afghanistan: a country study. Claitor's publishing division: United States of America.
6 7
Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 32-34 Clinton, B. (2004) My Life: Bill Clinton. 1st ed., Alfred A. Knopf: United States of America. Page 639
Page 6 out of 17
control disregarded Americas democratic values and violated the Foreign Appropriations Act, prompting President Clinton to impose economic sanctions on Pakistan. The mood of the political climate imposed by the Clinton administration would continue to sour Pakistani-American relations up to the September 11th attacks. It is therefore suggested unreservedly Americas intervention from the Afghanistan War to imposing economic sanctions in Pakistan was largely unwelcomed by the Pakistan majority. Word count: 638
Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 31
Page 7 out of 17
dislocation of communication between the two factions were first demonstrated during the administration of Nawaz Sharif on a visit to the United States in an attempt to resolve the land dispute pertaining to the Line of Control between the two countries. President Clinton had playe d the role of arbitrator between India and Pakistan over conflicting land disputes. General Musharraf recalled his agitation, upon learning Prime Minister Sharifs agreement to withdraw Pakistani troops from the Northwestern region of Pakistan, a decision the army was never discussed with, claiming that, the decisions taken in Washington were totally his.9 The growing disparity of strategy over India between the pair resulted in a coup attempted by Sharif to oust General Musharraf. This strain followed four previous coups during Pakistans independent years. The Generals long record of ruling Pakistan during its 62 independent years made him a powerful candidate to be approached in an effort to stop Pakistan from falling into complete chaos contributed by the divided military and various private Islamic armies. This failed, resulting in Musharraf taking stances which ultimately allowed him to assume presidential power in June 2001. This further stained US-Pakistani ties, with Americas frequent calls for democracy. However, this was not Americas primary concern. As emphasized by President Clinton, the manner in which nuclear weapons were controlled by Pakistan crucially affected global security. Upon General Musharrafs succession to presidential office, the Commander-in-Chief was no longer under civilian control, as was the case with Prime Minister Sharif, who never joined the army. By the end of Sharifs administration in October 1999, the Taliban were dominant in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with a third of Northwestern Pakistan bordering the Line of Control border under Taliban control. More frustrating is the addition of up to 40 small Islamic armies, many whom contributed to the series of proxy wars against India and have factions in the Pakistani army. This created the fear of possible attacks to capture the 40 or so nuclear warheads spread around Pakistan, which was the similar scenario America feared with the Soviets during the Cold War, where Soviet officers might launch offensive strikes against America without Moscows consent. Accusations alleging Pakistans army and its ISI unit were assisting the Taliban stemming from the United States, has also been a tense issue between the two ruling factions of the country, an issue that would prove to have more futile results after the War on Terror had been declared. Word count: 497
Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux: United States of America. Page 31
Page 8 out of 17
relent in waging this struggle for freedom and security for the American people .10 Secretary of State Colin Powell also warned, We have to make it clear to Pakistan and Afghanistan this is showtime.11 War is centrally defined as a direct conflict between two or more countries, when there is a clear link of intention. By suggesting the attacks were, an act of war, it would require the mounting of one since it encouraged war. However, Al Qaeda orchestrated the acts in the capacity of a terrorist organization with no enforcement from a specific country that is primarily hidden within Pakistan and Afghanistan. This gives American response against Al Qaeda two possible strategies; either generalize Pakistan and Afghanistan as equally guilty for sponsoring terrorism, or setting an alliance with them in defeating Al Qaeda. Colin Powells comments did not rule out the possibility of one of them, where show-time may suggest the era of stronger cooperation and willingness from the two countries to support Al Qaedas defeat, or to go to war against them. Americas initial position from the executive command was made clearer with Bushs further comments by the evening that, We will make no distinction between those who planned these acts and those who harbor them, 12 confirming the generalization of host terrorism states as terrorists themselves. This, however, proved to be a positive turning point in the US-Pakistani ties that arguably was not possible without the economically undeveloped status the country held. Following several addresses to the State of the Union, the Bush administration released the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism in February 2003 that defined the goals and objectives set by declaring a War on Terror. A number of these objectives were inter-correlated with mutual interests where one must be attained in order to reach the following ones. Out of the many, particular ones requiring Pakistan as a major ally were: -Locate terrorists and their organizations; -Destroy terrorists and their organizations; -End the state sponsorship of terrorism; and -Strengthen and sustain the international effort to fight terrorism.13 This series of objectives and goals shaped what became the, Bush Doctrine, a strategy against the War on Terror. With this, the Bush administration clearly expressed a much different policy approach than that adapted by predecessors, by breaking the traditional characteristics of American policy which was Isolationism and being a non-interventionist to affairs outside its sphere of influence of the Pacific Ocean which does not affect the values it cherishes, such as democracy. This dramatic turn was likely to affect Americas ties with Pakistan. What happened after 9/11 perhaps was the key turning point in Pakistani-American ties. Since these objectives required Pakistans support, both logistically and militarily, as early as the next day after
10
The History Place- Great Speeches Collection (no date) The History Place George W. Bush Speech to Congress Sept. 20, 2001 [online]. The History Place - Great Speeches Collection [Cited August 2nd, 2011]. <http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/gw-bush-9-11.htm>
11
Abbas, H. (2006) Inside Story of Musharraf-Mahmood Tussle [online]. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University [Cited November 13 th, 2011]. Available from <http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1598/inside_story_of_musharrafmahmood_tussle.html>
12
Abbas, H. (2004) Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror. Yale University Press: United States of America. Page 217
13
The White House (2003) National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. The United States Federal Government: United States of America.
Page 9 out of 17
9/11 important officials of the Pakistani government were invited to a discussion with CIA officials. The officials, prominently General Mahmood Ahmed was asked whether Pakistan would cooperate willingly with the United States, who asked for either a positive or negative response. General Mahmoods reply that Pakistan, along with General Musharraf, then President of Pakistan, was willing to cooperate was made for a number of reasons. Going against the United States would likely highly result in continued economic sanctions, the addition of Pakistan onto the terrorism sponsor states as well as possible diplomatic isolation from the West. These factors would further place Pakistan at a disadvantage in respect to its military position to India; due to the fact India might join the coalition with the United States. This possible scenario would further weaken Pakistan on the global stage. Following the generals unanimous willingness to cooperate, American officials presented the Pakistani government with a list of instructions requiring complete compliancy. The majority focused on undermining the central elements of terrorism in Pakistan. Some of the notable ones included refusing to supply fuel for the Taliban, preventing Pakistanis from becoming Taliban members and to end support with Afghanistan should it be determined that bin Laden is in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government was also urged on extinguishing public opinion that encouraged acts of terror. These proposals posed a significant dilemma for the Pakistani government in particular. Not only would the diplomatic ties with Afghanistan worsen, it was highly probable that government support for America would contribute to a rise of Anti-Americanism among Islamists. Word count: 810
15
Hussain, Z. (2010) The Scorpion's Tail : The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan-and How it
Threatens America. First Free Press: United States of America. Page 82-83
16
The Bureau of Investigating Journalism (2011) Drone War Exposed the complete picture of CIA strikes in Pakistan: TBIJ [online]. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism [Cited 25th of August, 2011]. < http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/08/10/most-complete-picture-yet-of-cia-dronestrikes/> Page 10 out of 17
civilians, often attempted to cover up such incidents by shifting the blame to the ISI or itself, with little or no credibility at all. However, it was not only Americas default in military strategy that threatened stability. In late 2006, President Musharraf, with General Ali Jan Aurakzai recommended to Washington a change of tactics, where declared cease-fires with the Taliban could encourage early withdrawal for American soldiers in Afghanistan, as they were not permitted to be in Pakistani soil. Although this was initially agreed with President Bush, the strategy had mounting problems, as it encouraged the border transitioning of the Taliban between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with many deaths attributed by the retaliation that the Taliban sought against government informants. In addition, the Pakistani government, notably General Musharraf, had been reluctant in fighting the Taliban due to the geographical disadvantage of opening two fronts, one on the West to fight the Taliban while another one on the East against India. Pakistans position with India has also affected American contingency efforts in Pakistan. This is primarily due to the fear of an impending attack, which results in the tying up of a large number of Pakistani soldiers to be stationed near the Line of Control , overseeing the disputed region of Kashmir. In this respect, there was wide spread sentiment in Pakistan that America showed indifference towards Pakistans interests of security against India regarding nuclear brinkmanship. As early as 2002, the Bush Administration forcibly demanded that the army withdraw its troops from the Line of Control, to the Western frontier of Pakistan, facing the Taliban. A huge price was also given by the Bush administration to secure Pakistans nuclear arsenal with $100 million from possible sabotage and raids from the Taliban and the many private Islamic armies, for by 2001, Pakistan was estimated to possess around 40 to 60 nuclear warheads. Word count: 537
Conclusion
The comments of General Anthony Zinni, the peace envoy to the Middle East during the Bush administration generally summed up the belief that America has indeed pressured Pakistan into its current state through past administration policies, by saying, Through our sanctions, through our attitudes toward them, were forcing the Pakistani army inward17 Such a collapse was first constructed by the Reagans Doctrine that left capably armed men who were prepared for another jihad, which ultimately contributed to the Talibans rise. Whereupon, the Clinton Administration, in an effort to reduce nuclear proliferation and also the high risk of a possible seizure of nuclear weapons, imposed heavy sanctions, both economically and militarily on Pakistan. Therefore, without Reagans intervention in Pakistan, the peace and stability would not have had to be attempted to be regained during the War on Terror. This is because the War on Terror also included the Taliban in its wipe-out list. However, attention must also be paid to the stability of the government and the military of Pakistan. With 4 coups in 62 of its independent years that resulted in the absence of civilian control, the interests of the army became diverged, evidence of a disintegration that led to private radical Islamic armies. Taking the complex nature of this power struggle into account, it has made Pakistan difficult to fully benefit from American intervention. Therefore, it seems appropriate to suggest that while
17
Weaver, M. (2010) Pakistan: Deep inside the World's Most Frightening State. Farrar Straus & Giroux : United States of America. Page 35
Page 11 out of 17
Bush may be held responsible for failed prospects of peace and stability with Pakistan, the Administrations responsibility also lies with Pakistans army and its unstable past political climate. Recognition that the nature of the sources collected are mainly on extreme sides of the spectrum, either from the American or Pakistani point of view must be given in order to reach a unbiased conclusion of the merits of the arguments given. Word count: 303
Page 12 out of 17
Bibliography
Abbas, H. (2004) Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror. Yale University Press: United States of America. Abbas, H. (2006) Inside Story of Musharraf-Mahmood Tussle [online]. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University [Cited November 13th, 2011]. Available from <http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1598/inside_story_of_musharrafmahmood_tussle.ht ml> Ali, T. (2009) The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power. Scribner: (country of publication unknown). Bush, G. and Dietrich, J. (2005) The George W. Bush foreign policy reader: presidential speeches and commentary. M.E. Sharpe Press: United States of America. Clinton, B. (2004) My Life: Bill Clinton. 1st ed., United States of America: Alfred A. Knopf. CNN (2001) Transcript of President Bush's address - Page 4 CNN [online]. CNN [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://articles.cnn.com/2001-0920/us/gen.bush.transcript_1_joint-session-national-anthem-citizens/4?_s=PM:US> Cohen, C. (2007) A perilous course: U.S. strategy and assistance to Pakistan. CSIS Press: United States of America. Culture of Peace (2005) Definition of Culture of Peace [online]. Culture of Peace [cited 13th November, 2011]. Available from <http://www.culture-of-peace.info/copoj/definition.html> Daalder, I. and Lindsay J. (2003) America unbound: the Bush revolution in foreign policy. Brookings Institution Press: United States of America. Greenstein, F. (2003) The George W. Bush presidency: an early assessment. JHU Press: United States of America. Hilali, A. (2005) US-Pakistan relationship: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. MPG Books Ltd: Great Britain. Hussain, Z. (2010) The Scorpion's Tail : The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan-and How it Threatens America. First Free Press: United States of America. Library of Congress, Federal Research Division (2001) Afghanistan: a country study. Claitor's publishing division: United States of America. Ministry of Defense, Government of Pakistan (2011) Defense Budget. Pakistan: Ministry of Defense, Government of Pakistan. Available from < http://202.83.164.27/wps/wcm/connect/24f83a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5/National+and+Defe nce+Budget.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=24f83a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5&CACHEID=24f83 a80489082d5be1abf38079c81b5> N. Asthana., A. Nirmal (2009) Urban Terrorism: Myths And Realities. Pointer Publishers: India. Page 13 out of 17
Sathasivam, K. (2005) Uneasy neighbors: India, Pakistan, and US foreign policy. TJ International: Great Britain. Schaffer, T. (2004) Pakistan's future and U.S. policy options: a report of the CSIS South Asia. CSIS Press: United States of America. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism (2011) Drone War Exposed the complete picture of CIA strikes in Pakistan: TBIJ [online]. The Bureau of Investigating Journalism [Cited 25th of August, 2011]. < http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/08/10/most-complete-picture-yet-of-cia-dronestrikes/> The Guardian UK (2011) US assistance to Pakistan 1948-2010 (millions, constant 2009 $US). Great Britain: The Guardian UK. Available from < http://www.guardian.co.uk/globaldevelopment/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan> The History Place- Great Speeches Collection (no date) The History Place George W. Bush Speech to Congress Sept. 20, 2001 [online]. The History Place - Great Speeches Collection [Cited August 2nd, 2011]. http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/gw-bush-9-11.htm The White House (2003) National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. The United States Federal Government: United States of America.
Page 14 out of 17
Page 15 out of 17
Appendix 4: Nature of casualties resulted from CIA drone strikes in Pakistan (2004-2011)