Project Time Series 2

Balance of payments of the EU institutions - Monthly data
Source of Data
Eurostat
CURRENCY
POST
FLOW
PARTNER
Euro (from 1.1.1999)/ECU (up to 31.12.1998)

Current + capital account
Credit
All countries of the world
GEO/TIME
European Commission
2008M01
alpha=0.2
alpha=0.3
All period average
3 months moving average
Exp smoothing with alpha=0.2
Exp smoothing with alpha=0.3
19,452,481,491
19,452,481,491
2008M01
Abs error (all period average)

Absolute value of absolute error
Absolute error squared
Relative error
Absolute value of relative error
Absolute error (3MA)

Relative error
Absolute error (ES with alpha 0.2)

Relative error
Absolute error (ES with alpha 0.3)

Relative error
0
0
0
0
0
2008M02
2008M03
2008M04
21,665,344,315
9,247,235,654
11,897,863,347
20,558,912,903
16,788,353,820
15,565,731,202
16,788,353,820
19,452,481,491
19,895,054,055.80
17,765,490,375.44
19,452,481,491
20,116,340,338.20
16,855,608,932.94
2008M02
1,106,431,412
1,106,431,412
1,224,190,469,460,310,000
0.051069182
0.051069182
2008M03
-7,541,118,166
7,541,118,166
56,868,463,193,575,200,000
-0.815499729
0.815499729
2008M04
-3,667,867,855
3,667,867,855
13,453,254,599,908,400,000
-0.308279541
0.308279541
-4,890,490,473
4,890,490,473
23,916,897,066,503,800,000
-0.411039388
0.411039388
2,212,862,824
2,212,862,824
4,896,761,877,841,260,000
0.102138364
0.102138364
-10,647,818,402
10,647,818,402
113,376,036,717,711,000,000
-1.151459615
1.151459615
-5,867,627,028
5,867,627,028
34,429,046,944,879,700,000
-0.49316645
0.49316645
2,212,862,824
2,212,862,824
4,896,761,877,841,260,000
0.102138364
0.102138364
-10,869,104,684
10,869,104,684
118,137,436,636,098,000,000
-1.175389607
1.175389607
-4,957,745,586
4,957,745,586
24,579,241,294,907,500,000
-0.416692093
0.416692093
2008M05
2008M06
2008M07
9,321,167,054
6,281,242,897
7,991,831,891
14,316,818,372
12,977,555,793
12,265,309,521
14,270,147,772
10,155,422,018
9,166,757,766
16,591,964,969.75
15,137,805,386.60
13,366,492,888.68
15,368,285,257.16
13,554,149,796.21
11,372,277,726.45
2008M05
2008M06
2008M07
-4,995,651,318
4,995,651,318
24,956,532,093,033,400,000
-0.535946978
0.535946978
-6,696,312,896
6,696,312,896
44,840,606,401,135,900,000
-1.066080871
1.066080871
-4,273,477,630
4,273,477,630
18,262,611,056,552,400,000
-0.534730671
0.534730671
-4,948,980,718
4,948,980,718
24,492,410,147,135,800,000
-0.53094003
0.53094003
-3,874,179,121
3,874,179,121
15,009,263,864,175,100,000
-0.616785433
0.616785433
-1,174,925,875
1,174,925,875
1,380,450,811,744,520,000
-0.14701584
0.14701584
-7,270,797,916
7,270,797,916
52,864,502,331,703,700,000
-0.780030856
0.780030856
-8,856,562,490
8,856,562,490
78,438,699,132,218,200,000
-1.410001593
1.410001593
-5,374,660,998
5,374,660,998
28,886,980,839,996,400,000
-0.672519276
0.672519276
-6,047,118,203
6,047,118,203
36,567,638,562,964,800,000
-0.648751188
0.648751188
-7,272,906,899
7,272,906,899
52,895,174,764,585,100,000
-1.157877035
1.157877035
-3,380,445,835
3,380,445,835
11,427,414,046,393,800,000
-0.422987606
0.422987606
2008M08
2008M09
2008M10
5,751,313,288
8,217,304,851
13,424,359,363
11,451,059,992
11,091,753,865
11,325,014,415
7,864,747,281
6,674,796,025
7,320,150,010
12,291,560,689.15
10,983,511,208.92
10,430,269,937.33
10,358,143,975.81
8,976,094,769.47
8,748,457,793.93
2008M08
2008M09
2008M10
-5,699,746,704
5,699,746,704
32,487,112,491,183,800,000
-0.991033946
0.991033946
-2,874,449,014
2,874,449,014
8,262,457,136,001,870,000
-0.349804354
0.349804354
2,099,344,948
2,099,344,948
4,407,249,210,273,250,000
0.15638325
0.15638325
-2,113,433,993
2,113,433,993
4,466,603,241,358,970,000
-0.367469809
0.367469809
1,542,508,826
1,542,508,826
2,379,333,477,259,560,000
0.187714689
0.187714689
6,104,209,353
6,104,209,353
37,261,371,825,252,700,000
0.454711408
0.454711408
-6,540,247,401
6,540,247,401
42,774,836,068,184,300,000
-1.137174602
1.137174602
-2,766,206,358
2,766,206,358
7,651,897,614,575,030,000
-0.336631829
0.336631829
2,994,089,426
2,994,089,426
8,964,571,488,892,030,000
0.223034064
0.223034064
-4,606,830,688
4,606,830,688
21,222,888,986,177,400,000
-0.801004998
0.801004998
-758,789,918
758,789,918
575,762,140,370,548,000
-0.092340485
0.092340485
4,675,901,569
4,675,901,569
21,864,055,483,645,700,000
0.34831469
0.34831469
2008M11
2008M12
2009M01
9,671,939,144
8,885,033,967
8,598,297,521
11,174,734,845
10,983,926,439
10,800,416,522
9,130,992,501
10,437,867,786
10,660,444,158
11,029,087,822.47
10,757,658,086.77
10,383,133,262.82
10,151,228,264.65
10,007,441,528.45
9,670,719,260.02
2008M11
2008M12
2009M01
-1,502,795,701
1,502,795,701
2,258,394,918,944,080,000
-0.155376877
0.155376877
-2,098,892,472
2,098,892,472
4,405,349,606,919,380,000
-0.23622785
0.23622785
-2,202,119,001
2,202,119,001
4,849,328,093,548,870,000
-0.256111049
0.256111049
540,946,643
540,946,643
292,623,270,933,601,000
0.055929492
0.055929492
-1,552,833,819
1,552,833,819
2,411,292,869,430,120,000
-0.174769598
0.174769598
-2,062,146,637
2,062,146,637
4,252,448,752,490,410,000
-0.23983197
0.23983197
-1,357,148,678
1,357,148,678
1,841,852,535,462,700,000
-0.140318157
0.140318157
-1,872,624,120
1,872,624,120
3,506,721,093,955,630,000
-0.210761616
0.210761616
-1,784,835,742
1,784,835,742
3,185,638,625,272,460,000
-0.207580133
0.207580133
-479,289,121
479,289,121
229,718,061,173,377,000
-0.049554605
0.049554605
-1,122,407,561
1,122,407,561
1,259,798,734,011,240,000
-0.126325635
0.126325635
-1,072,421,739
1,072,421,739
1,150,088,386,319,380,000
-0.124724893
0.124724893
2009M02
2009M03
2009M04
30,278,034,225
9,032,159,360
11,079,998,288
12,191,674,929
11,981,040,558
11,924,725,416
9,051,756,877
15,920,455,238
15,969,497,035
10,026,166,114.45
14,076,539,736.56
13,067,663,661.25
9,348,992,738.31
15,627,705,184.32
13,649,041,437.02
2009M02
2009M03
2009M04
18,086,359,296
18,086,359,296
327,116,392,578,838,000,000
0.597342587
0.597342587
-2,948,881,198
2,948,881,198
8,695,900,319,131,550,000
-0.326486843
0.326486843
-844,727,128
844,727,128
713,563,920,779,128,000
-0.076238922
0.076238922
21,226,277,348
21,226,277,348
450,554,850,040,067,000,000
0.701045424
0.701045424
-6,888,295,878
6,888,295,878
47,448,620,098,279,600,000
-0.762641092
0.762641092
-4,889,498,747
4,889,498,747
23,907,198,000,174,200,000
-0.441290569
0.441290569
20,251,868,111
20,251,868,111
410,138,161,966,921,000,000
0.668863373
0.668863373
-5,044,380,377
5,044,380,377
25,445,773,383,461,800,000
-0.558491073
0.558491073
-1,987,665,373
1,987,665,373
3,950,813,636,021,140,000
-0.179392209
0.179392209
20,929,041,487
20,929,041,487
438,024,777,551,469,000,000
0.691228543
0.691228543
-6,595,545,824
6,595,545,824
43,501,224,720,692,400,000
-0.730229125
0.730229125
-2,569,043,149
2,569,043,149
6,599,982,701,543,710,000
-0.231863136
0.231863136
2009M05
2009M06
2009M07
8,080,742,550
9,216,300,438
5,322,951,956
11,698,608,777
11,560,702,758
11,232,400,084
16,796,730,624
9,397,633,399
9,459,013,759
12,670,130,586.60
11,752,252,979.28
11,245,062,471.02
12,878,328,492.32
11,439,052,709.62
10,772,227,028.14
2009M05
2009M06
2009M07
-3,617,866,227
3,617,866,227
13,088,956,035,190,300,000
-0.447714576
0.447714576
-2,344,402,320
2,344,402,320
5,496,222,238,021,380,000
-0.25437564
0.25437564
-5,909,448,128
5,909,448,128
34,921,577,180,010,900,000
-1.110182503
1.110182503
-8,715,988,074
8,715,988,074
75,968,448,111,920,900,000
-1.078612271
1.078612271
-181,332,961
181,332,961
32,881,642,865,916,400
-0.019675244
0.019675244
-4,136,061,803
4,136,061,803
17,107,007,235,478,200,000
-0.777024072
0.777024072
-4,589,388,037
4,589,388,037
21,062,482,550,494,800,000
-0.567941375
0.567941375
-2,535,952,541
2,535,952,541
6,431,055,291,627,830,000
-0.275159491
0.275159491
-5,922,110,515
5,922,110,515
35,071,392,952,164,100,000
-1.112561331
1.112561331
-4,797,585,942
4,797,585,942
23,016,830,873,911,300,000
-0.593706075
0.593706075
-2,222,752,272
2,222,752,272
4,940,627,660,998,220,000
-0.241176195
0.241176195
-5,449,275,072
5,449,275,072
29,694,598,811,791,900,000
-1.023731778
1.023731778
2009M08
2009M09
2009M10
1,835,158,574
15,569,065,785
13,945,466,458
10,762,538,009
10,991,420,284
11,125,695,110
7,539,998,315
5,458,136,989
7,575,725,438
10,060,640,368.02
8,415,544,009.22
9,846,248,364.37
9,137,444,506.49
6,946,758,726.75
9,533,450,844.22
2009M08
2009M09
2009M10
-8,927,379,435
8,927,379,435
79,698,103,571,104,500,000
-4.864636529
4.864636529
4,577,645,501
4,577,645,501
20,954,838,335,005,400,000
0.294021848
0.294021848
2,819,771,348
2,819,771,348
7,951,110,455,770,770,000
0.202199859
0.202199859
-5,704,839,741
5,704,839,741
32,545,196,466,689,700,000
-3.108635854
3.108635854
10,110,928,796
10,110,928,796
102,230,881,111,041,000,000
0.649424245
0.649424245
6,369,741,020
6,369,741,020
40,573,600,657,624,200,000
0.4567607
0.4567607
-8,225,481,794
8,225,481,794
67,658,550,743,748,300,000
-4.482164054
4.482164054
7,153,521,776
7,153,521,776
51,172,873,796,620,200,000
0.4594702
0.4594702
4,099,218,094
4,099,218,094
16,803,588,979,122,600,000
0.293946288
0.293946288
-7,302,285,932
7,302,285,932
53,323,379,839,907,100,000
-3.979103515
3.979103515
8,622,307,058
8,622,307,058
74,344,179,006,814,200,000
0.553810176
0.553810176
4,412,015,614
4,412,015,614
19,465,881,776,218,200,000
0.316376338
0.316376338
2009M11
2009M12
2010M01
12,603,937,187
6,099,549,914
12,135,492,987
11,189,966,505
10,977,865,813
11,024,170,900
10,449,896,939
14,039,489,810
10,882,984,520
10,666,091,983.10
11,053,661,023.88
10,062,838,801.90
10,857,055,528.36
11,381,120,025.95
9,796,648,992.36
2009M11
2009M12
2010M01
1,413,970,682
1,413,970,682
1,999,313,090,908,040,000
0.11218484
0.11218484
-4,878,315,899
4,878,315,899
23,797,966,012,875,300,000
-0.79978293
0.79978293
1,111,322,087
1,111,322,087
1,235,036,780,609,510,000
0.09157618
0.09157618
2,154,040,248
2,154,040,248
4,639,889,390,003,900,000
0.170902173
0.170902173
-7,939,939,896
7,939,939,896
63,042,645,552,092,500,000
-1.301725538
1.301725538
1,252,508,467
1,252,508,467
1,568,777,460,741,700,000
0.103210349
0.103210349
1,937,845,204
1,937,845,204
3,755,244,034,285,790,000
0.153749196
0.153749196
-4,954,111,110
4,954,111,110
24,543,216,889,021,000,000
-0.812209291
0.812209291
2,072,654,185
2,072,654,185
4,295,895,371,001,150,000
0.170792747
0.170792747
1,746,881,659
1,746,881,659
3,051,595,529,308,160,000
0.138598093
0.138598093
-5,281,570,112
5,281,570,112
27,894,982,847,432,200,000
-0.865895056
0.865895056
2,338,843,995
2,338,843,995
5,470,191,231,243,710,000
0.192727563
0.192727563
2010M02
2010M03
2010M04
29,244,849,966
7,066,674,513
5,423,301,437
11,724,966,249
11,552,436,925
11,333,539,229
10,279,660,029
15,826,630,956
16,149,005,822
10,477,369,638.92
14,230,865,704.34
12,798,027,466.07
10,498,302,190.76
16,122,266,523.33
13,405,588,920.23
2010M02
2010M03
2010M04
17,519,883,717
17,519,883,717
306,946,325,461,245,000,000
0.599075863
0.599075863
-4,485,762,412
4,485,762,412
20,122,064,419,902,600,000
-0.634776995
0.634776995
-5,910,237,792
5,910,237,792
34,930,910,761,784,500,000
-1.089785965
1.089785965
18,965,189,937
18,965,189,937
359,678,429,333,842,000,000
0.648496742
0.648496742
-8,759,956,443
8,759,956,443
76,736,836,877,417,200,000
-1.239615101
1.239615101
-10,725,704,385
10,725,704,385
115,040,734,554,408,000,000
-1.977707585
1.977707585
18,767,480,327
18,767,480,327
352,218,317,827,252,000,000
0.641736249
0.641736249
-7,164,191,191
7,164,191,191
51,325,635,426,041,600,000
-1.013799515
1.013799515
-7,374,726,029
7,374,726,029
54,386,584,003,845,700,000
-1.359822262
1.359822262
18,746,547,775
18,746,547,775
351,433,053,489,544,000,000
0.64102048
0.64102048
-9,055,592,010
9,055,592,010
82,003,746,657,525,000,000
-1.281450277
1.281450277
-7,982,287,483
7,982,287,483
63,716,913,464,929,300,000
-1.471850233
1.471850233
2010M05
2010M06
2010M07
9,512,223,420
5,815,198,551
11,478,046,527
11,270,735,236
11,088,884,013
11,101,437,643
13,911,608,639
7,334,066,457
6,916,907,803
11,323,082,260.26
10,960,910,492.20
9,931,768,103.96
11,010,902,675.26
10,561,298,898.68
9,137,468,794.38
2010M05
2010M06
2010M07
-1,758,511,816
1,758,511,816
3,092,363,806,647,790,000
-0.184868641
0.184868641
-5,273,685,462
5,273,685,462
27,811,758,352,813,300,000
-0.90687969
0.90687969
376,608,884
376,608,884
141,834,251,847,888,000
0.032811235
0.032811235
-4,399,385,219
4,399,385,219
19,354,590,302,222,700,000
-0.462498096
0.462498096
-1,518,867,906
1,518,867,906
2,306,959,714,864,250,000
-0.261189346
0.261189346
4,561,138,724
4,561,138,724
20,803,986,462,613,100,000
0.397379355
0.397379355
-1,810,858,840
1,810,858,840
3,279,209,739,333,920,000
-0.190371773
0.190371773
-5,145,711,941
5,145,711,941
26,478,351,381,859,100,000
-0.884872958
0.884872958
1,546,278,423
1,546,278,423
2,390,976,961,546,860,000
0.134716166
0.134716166
-1,498,679,255
1,498,679,255
2,246,039,510,149,530,000
-0.157552991
0.157552991
-4,746,100,348
4,746,100,348
22,525,468,510,273,500,000
-0.81615448
0.81615448
2,340,577,733
2,340,577,733
5,478,304,122,446,570,000
0.203917777
0.203917777
2010M08
2010M09
2010M10
9,963,285,162
10,304,432,437
11,348,726,706
11,065,870,378
11,042,796,501
11,051,794,448
8,935,156,166
9,085,510,080
10,581,921,375
10,241,023,788.57
10,185,476,063.26
10,209,267,338.01
9,839,642,114.16
9,876,735,028.52
10,005,044,251.06
2010M08
2010M09
2010M10
-1,102,585,216
1,102,585,216
1,215,694,157,508,090,000
-0.110664826
0.110664826
-738,364,064
738,364,064
545,181,490,335,355,000
-0.071654996
0.071654996
296,932,258
296,932,258
88,168,765,980,711,500
0.026164368
0.026164368
1,028,128,996
1,028,128,996
1,057,049,232,415,970,000
0.103191766
0.103191766
1,218,922,357
1,218,922,357
1,485,771,712,394,440,000
0.118291072
0.118291072
766,805,331
766,805,331
587,990,415,138,815,000
0.067567521
0.067567521
-277,738,627
277,738,627
77,138,744,689,633,900
-0.02787621
0.02787621
118,956,374
118,956,374
14,150,618,854,101,500
0.011544195
0.011544195
1,139,459,368
1,139,459,368
1,298,367,651,310,330,000
0.10040416
0.10040416
123,643,048
123,643,048
15,287,603,278,050,000
0.012409867
0.012409867
427,697,408
427,697,408
182,925,073,224,653,000
0.041506159
0.041506159
1,343,682,455
1,343,682,455
1,805,482,539,711,950,000
0.118399402
0.118399402
2010M11
2010M12
2011M01
9,966,603,142
12,901,725,522
11,453,874,818
11,020,788,982
11,073,037,219
11,083,330,127
10,538,814,768
10,539,920,762
11,405,685,123
10,437,159,211.60
10,343,047,997.68
10,854,783,502.55
10,408,148,987.54
10,275,685,233.88
11,063,497,320.32
2010M11
2010M12
2011M01
-1,054,185,840
1,054,185,840
1,111,307,785,015,550,000
-0.105771829
0.105771829
1,828,688,303
1,828,688,303
3,344,100,909,122,650,000
0.141739824
0.141739824
370,544,691
370,544,691
137,303,367,888,079,000
0.032351034
0.032351034
-572,211,626
572,211,626
327,426,145,311,039,000
-0.057412904
0.057412904
2,361,804,760
2,361,804,760
5,578,121,725,933,200,000
0.183061154
0.183061154
48,189,695
48,189,695
2,322,246,672,066,500
0.004207283
0.004207283
-470,556,070
470,556,070
221,423,014,641,574,000
-0.047213284
0.047213284
2,558,677,524
2,558,677,524
6,546,830,673,442,170,000
0.198320567
0.198320567
599,091,315
599,091,315
358,910,404,251,399,000
0.052304685
0.052304685
-441,545,846
441,545,846
194,962,733,715,775,000
-0.044302541
0.044302541
2,626,040,288
2,626,040,288
6,896,087,594,830,960,000
0.203541789
0.203541789
390,377,498
390,377,498
152,394,590,698,187,000
0.034082571
0.034082571
2011M02
2011M03
2011M04
27,322,634,630
6,306,242,954
7,149,362,603
11,510,680,246
11,377,233,136
11,271,536,372
11,440,734,494
17,226,078,323
15,027,584,134
10,974,601,765.64
14,244,208,338.51
12,656,615,261.61
11,180,610,569.62
16,023,217,787.73
13,108,125,337.61
2011M02
2011M03
2011M04
15,811,954,384
15,811,954,384
250,017,901,451,683,000,000
0.578712653
0.578712653
-5,070,990,182
5,070,990,182
25,714,941,422,299,700,000
-0.804122235
0.804122235
-4,122,173,769
4,122,173,769
16,992,316,584,511,100,000
-0.5765792
0.5765792
15,881,900,136
15,881,900,136
252,234,751,929,877,000,000
0.581272646
0.581272646
-10,919,835,369
10,919,835,369
119,242,804,493,343,000,000
-1.73159129
1.73159129
-7,878,221,531
7,878,221,531
62,066,374,491,512,000,000
-1.1019474
1.1019474
16,348,032,864
16,348,032,864
267,258,178,534,277,000,000
0.59833296
0.59833296
-7,937,965,385
7,937,965,385
63,011,294,445,678,600,000
-1.258747156
1.258747156
-5,507,252,659
5,507,252,659
30,329,831,845,744,700,000
-0.770313798
0.770313798
16,142,024,060
16,142,024,060
260,564,940,765,853,000,000
0.590793102
0.590793102
-9,716,974,834
9,716,974,834
94,419,599,919,434,200,000
-1.54085006
1.54085006
-5,958,762,735
5,958,762,735
35,506,853,327,428,300,000
-0.83346769
0.83346769
2011M05
2011M06
2011M07
8,581,633,603
7,717,669,600
10,431,227,400
11,205,928,988
11,122,875,193
11,106,790,360
13,592,746,729
7,345,746,387
7,816,221,935
11,555,164,729.89
10,960,458,504.51
10,311,900,723.61
11,320,496,517.23
10,498,837,642.96
9,664,487,230.07
2011M05
2011M06
2011M07
-2,624,295,385
2,624,295,385
6,886,926,266,196,130,000
-0.305803709
0.305803709
-3,405,205,593
3,405,205,593
11,595,425,128,977,000,000
-0.441221997
0.441221997
-675,562,960
675,562,960
456,385,313,426,706,000
-0.064763516
0.064763516
-5,011,113,126
5,011,113,126
25,111,254,761,569,500,000
-0.58393464
0.58393464
371,923,213
371,923,213
138,326,876,616,192,000
0.048191129
0.048191129
2,615,005,465
2,615,005,465
6,838,253,580,236,530,000
0.250690102
0.250690102
-2,973,531,127
2,973,531,127
8,841,887,362,562,230,000
-0.346499427
0.346499427
-3,242,788,905
3,242,788,905
10,515,679,879,207,400,000
-0.420177213
0.420177213
119,326,676
119,326,676
14,238,855,698,930,900
0.011439371
0.011439371
-2,738,862,914
2,738,862,914
7,501,370,062,944,550,000
-0.319154026
0.319154026
-2,781,168,043
2,781,168,043
7,734,895,683,187,590,000
-0.360363709
0.360363709
766,740,170
766,740,170
587,890,488,180,132,000
0.07350431
0.07350431
2011M08
2011M09
2011M10
545,108,664
19,185,750,403
10,866,752,140
11,051,618,768
11,051,618,768
8,910,176,868
6,231,335,221
10,054,028,822
10,335,766,058.89
8,377,634,579.91
10,539,257,744.53
9,894,509,281.05
7,089,689,095.94
10,718,507,488.05
2011M08
2011M09
Averages
-10,321,643,476
10,321,643,476
106,536,324,045,653,000,000
-18.93502004
18.93502004
8,134,131,635
8,134,131,635
66,164,097,454,423,200,000
0.423967344
0.423967344
-933,623,687
4,291,560,982
36,128,796,910,801,000,000
-0.756018297
1
-8,365,068,204
8,365,068,204
69,974,366,051,995,100,000
-15.34568932
15.34568932
12,954,415,182
12,954,415,182
167,816,872,698,996,000,000
0.675210242
0.675210242
-170,207,787
5,411,854,668
54,330,140,826,205,800,000
-0.640042498
0.918959521
-9,790,657,395
9,790,657,395
95,856,972,224,032,600,000
-17.96092787
17.96092787
10,808,115,823
10,808,115,823
116,815,367,645,357,000,000
0.563340792
0.563340792
-1,012,866,335
5,227,751,713
48,690,589,593,291,100,000
-0.782364796
0.981643586
-9,349,400,617
9,349,400,617
87,411,291,898,111,700,000
-17.1514438
17.1514438
12,096,061,307
12,096,061,307
146,314,699,144,260,000,000
0.630471108
0.630471108
-661,664,697
5,204,448,604
50,018,782,697,853,300,000
-0.721934148
0.944335981
AE
MAD
MSE
MPE
MAPE
AE
MAD
MSE
MPE
MAPE
AE
MAD
MSE
MPE
MAPE
AE
MAD
MSE
MPE
MAPE
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Year
European Commission BOP

2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011 Need forecast
19,452,481,491
21,665,344,315
9,247,235,654
11,897,863,347
9,321,167,054
6,281,242,897
7,991,831,891
5,751,313,288
8,217,304,851
13,424,359,363
9,671,939,144
8,885,033,967
8,598,297,521
30,278,034,225
9,032,159,360
11,079,998,288
8,080,742,550
9,216,300,438
5,322,951,956
1,835,158,574
15,569,065,785
13,945,466,458
12,603,937,187
6,099,549,914
12,135,492,987
29,244,849,966
7,066,674,513
5,423,301,437
9,512,223,420
5,815,198,551
11,478,046,527
9,963,285,162
10,304,432,437
11,348,726,706
9,966,603,142
12,901,725,522
11,453,874,818
27,322,634,630
6,306,242,954
7,149,362,603
8,581,633,603
7,717,669,600
10,431,227,400
545,108,664
19,185,750,403
Centered average Average Jan to Dec

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10,531,668,773
10,438,273,187
10,788,173,755
10,745,134,532
10,659,372,466
10,729,982,176
10,741,072,910
10,466,696,466
10,609,846,725
10,937,882,893
11,081,762,274
11,087,867,024
11,119,188,332
11,223,522,133
11,098,577,587
10,780,986,683
10,604,936,017
10,522,868,474
10,637,618,169
11,232,752,384
11,352,064,603
11,024,507,390
10,806,420,982
10,979,956,047
11,234,979,274
11,126,486,211
11,014,709,257
11,054,943,824
11,088,088,464
11,128,583,515
11,164,235,678
10,728,194,194
10,705,825,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10,983,926,439
10,079,411,108
10,797,135,267
10,779,212,242
10,711,056,821
10,607,688,112
10,852,276,241
10,629,869,579
10,303,523,353
10,916,170,098
10,959,595,689
11,203,928,859
10,971,805,188
11,266,571,477
11,180,472,789
11,016,682,385
10,545,290,980
10,664,581,053
10,381,155,896
10,894,080,443
11,571,424,326
11,132,704,880
10,916,309,901
10,696,532,064
11,263,380,031
11,206,578,517
11,046,393,905
10,983,024,609
11,126,863,039
11,049,313,888
11,207,853,142
11,120,618,215
10,335,770,173
11,075,880,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
November
December
January
February
2011
2011
2012
2012
Need forecast
Need forecast
Need forecast
Need forecast
Average Feb to Jan Seasonality factors

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10,079,411,108
10,797,135,267
10,779,212,242
10,711,056,821
10,607,688,112
10,852,276,241
10,629,869,579
10,303,523,353
10,916,170,098
10,959,595,689
11,203,928,859
10,971,805,188
11,266,571,477
11,180,472,789
11,016,682,385
10,545,290,980
10,664,581,053
10,381,155,896
10,894,080,443
11,571,424,326
11,132,704,880
10,916,309,901
10,696,532,064
11,263,380,031
11,206,578,517
11,046,393,905
10,983,024,609
11,126,863,039
11,049,313,888
11,207,853,142
11,120,618,215
10,335,770,173
11,075,880,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Line up
Seasonality factors for similar months

2008
2009
January
N/A
0.800506392
February
N/A
2.892797582
March
N/A
0.851299702
April
N/A
1.012992953
May
N/A
0.729192916
June
N/A
0.831205895
0.758838135 July
1.089738906
0.478717672
0.550983212 August
0.933526427
0.163510042
0.761695634 September
1.00166274
1.402798301
1.24934307 October
1.00636309
1.293524134
0.907364779 November
1.009744697
1.18849724
0.828056731 December
0.977462044
0.579647073
0.800506392
2.892797582
0.851299702
1.012992953
0.729192916
0.831205895
0.478717672
0.163510042
1.402798301
1.293524134
1.18849724
0.579647073
1.140809229
2.603533752
0.622501259
0.491931407
0.880238095
0.529619474
1.021634864
0.895456568
0.935515609
1.026574796
0.898856748
1.159332228
1.025943481
2.546806493
0.589047822
2010
1.140809229
2.603533752
0.622501259
0.491931407
0.880238095
0.529619474
1.021634864
0.895456568
0.935515609
1.026574796
0.898856748
1.159332228
Seasonality factors for forecast

2011
1.025943481
2.54680493
0.589047822
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.989086367
2.681045421
0.687616261
0.75246218
0.804715506
0.680412685
0.863363814
0.664164346
1.11332555
1.108820673
1.032366228
0.905480448
Season y factors Deseasonalised BOP

0.989086367
19,667,121,228
2.681045421
8,080,931,469
0.687616261
13,448,250,396
0.75246218
15,811,908,775
0.804715506
11,583,183,113
0.680412685
9,231,519,400
0.863363814
9,256,621,322
0.664164346
8,659,473,104
1.11332555
7,380,864,341
1.108820673
12,106,880,476
1.032366228
9,368,709,357
0.905480448
9,812,507,807
0.989086367
8,693,171,603
2.681045421
11,293,368,618
0.687616261
13,135,465,044
0.75246218
14,724,990,282
0.804715506
10,041,738,347
0.680412685
13,545,162,587
0.863363814
6,165,363,742
0.664164346
2,763,109,140
1.039998225
14,970,281,113
1.108820673
12,576,845,645
1.032366228
12,208,784,867
0.905480448
6,736,258,001
0.989086367
12,269,396,675
2.681045421
10,908,002,428
0.687616261
10,277,061,370
0.75246218
7,207,407,337
0.804715506
11,820,604,120
0.680412685
8,546,575,752
0.863363814
13,294,565,210
0.664164346
15,001,234,599
1.039998225
9,908,125,023
1.108820673
10,234,952,304
1.032366228
9,654,135,197
0.905480448
14,248,486,036
0.989086367
11,580,257,494
2.681045421
10,191,037,575
0.687616261
9,171,166,116
0.75246218
9,501,291,617
0.804715506
10,664,183,235
0.680412685
11,342,630,400
0.863363814
12,082,076,210
0.664164346
820,743,642
1.039998225
18,447,868,412
1.108820673 Forecast
1.032366228
0.905480448
0.989086367
2.681045421
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
0.2
Exponential smoothing
19,667,121,228
19,624,193,281
20,032,423,487
17,875,385,921
16,679,881,406
15,208,138,536
13,422,759,408
12,336,573,905
11,019,521,781
10,459,078,395
11,052,134,589
10,776,095,500
10,397,883,193
10,037,966,059
14,085,979,692
13,075,215,626
12,676,172,158
11,757,086,236
11,248,929,077
10,063,733,653
8,418,018,637
9,848,228,067
10,667,675,745
11,054,928,033
10,063,852,409
10,478,180,525
14,231,514,413
12,798,546,433
11,323,497,434
10,961,242,631
9,932,033,815
10,241,236,357
10,185,646,118
10,209,403,382
10,437,268,047
10,343,135,066
10,854,853,157
10,974,657,489
14,244,252,917
12,656,650,925
11,555,193,260
10,960,481,329
10,311,918,983
10,335,780,667
8,377,646,266
10,539,267,093
Reseasoned BOP
19,452,481,491
52,613,353,542
13,774,620,137
13,450,551,858
13,422,559,197
10,347,810,367
11,588,724,759
8,193,512,535
12,268,315,147
11,597,242,350
11,409,850,501
9,757,543,783
10,284,404,516
26,912,242,941
9,685,748,688
9,838,605,254
10,200,712,286
7,999,670,608
9,711,918,313
6,683,973,076
8,754,724,440
10,919,918,877
11,012,948,174
10,010,021,190
9,954,019,221
28,092,477,920
9,785,820,729
9,630,422,150
9,112,193,962
7,458,168,524
8,574,958,597
6,801,864,044
10,593,053,883
11,320,397,533
10,775,083,048
9,365,506,575
10,736,387,277
29,423,555,212
9,794,579,932
9,523,651,146
9,298,643,186
7,457,650,524
8,902,937,705
6,864,657,003
8,712,737,246
11,686,157,236
35,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
0
10,539,267,093
10,539,267,093
10,539,267,093
10,539,267,093
10,880,383,419
9,543,100,292
10,424,245,404
28,256,253,785
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Balance of payments
00,000,000
00,000,000
00,000,000
00,000,000
Balance of payments
00,000,000
00,000,000
00,000,000
0
35,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
egression Statistics
0.871346823
0.759245286
0.753646339
3129326156
45
df
1
43
44
SS
MS
1.32794E+21 1.32794E+21
4.21085E+20 9.79268E+18
1.74902E+21
Coefficients Standard Error

787148368.2
997282700
10070932019
864832066.4
Predicted Y
10748169935
27787774547
7712084988
8365143830
8891383519
7639538259
9482026648
7475902343
11999374297
11954005992
11184038473
9906180407
10748169935
27787774547
7712084988
8365143830
8891383519
7639538259
9482026648
7475902343
11260899792
11954005992
Residuals
8704311556
-6122430232
1535150666
3532719517
429783535.1
-1358295362
-1490194757
-1724589055
-3782069446
1470353371
-1512099329
-1021146440
-2149872414
2490259678
1320074372
2714854458
-810640968.9
1576762179
-4159074692
-5640743769
4308165993
1991460466
F
Significance F
135.605
6.97168E-15
t Stat
P-value
0.789293114 0.434271
11.64495676 6.97E-15
Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
-1224063848 2798360584 -1224063848
8326831960 11815032079 8326831960
11184038473
9906180407
10748169935
27787774547
7712084988
8365143830
8891383519
7639538259
9482026648
7475902343
11260899792
11954005992
11184038473
9906180407
10748169935
27787774547
7712084988
8365143830
8891383519
7639538259
9482026648
7475902343
11260899792
1419898714
-3806630493
1387323052
1457075419
-645410475
-2941842393
620839901.1
-1824339708
1996019879
2487382819
-956467355.1
-605279285.7
-1217435331
2995545115
705704883.3
-465139916.7
-1405842034
-1215781227
-309749915.9
78131341.2
949200751.5
-6930793679
7924850611
Balance of payments
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
,000,000,000
,000,000,000
,000,000,000
,000,000,000
Y
Predicted Y
,000,000,000
,000,000,000
,000,000,000
0
0
0
0
X Variable 1
Upper 95.0%
2.8E+09
1.18E+10
Predicted Y
alpha
beta
0.2
Month
Year
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
19,452,481,491
21,665,344,315
9,247,235,654
11,897,863,347
9,321,167,054
6,281,242,897
7,991,831,891
5,751,313,288
8,217,304,851
13,424,359,363
9,671,939,144
8,885,033,967
8,598,297,521
30,278,034,225
9,032,159,360
11,079,998,288
8,080,742,550
9,216,300,438
5,322,951,956
1,835,158,574
15,569,065,785
13,945,466,458
12,603,937,187
6,099,549,914
12,135,492,987
29,244,849,966
7,066,674,513
5,423,301,437
9,512,223,420
5,815,198,551
11,478,046,527
9,963,285,162
10,304,432,437
11,348,726,706
9,966,603,142
12,901,725,522
11,453,874,818
27,322,634,630
6,306,242,954
7,149,362,603
8,581,633,603
7,717,669,600
10,431,227,400
545,108,664
19,185,750,403
October
November
2011
2011
1
2
0.2
Level
Trend
10,957,581,872
0
12,656,561,796
339,795,985
14,730,155,087
686,555,446
14,182,815,558
439,776,451
14,077,646,276
330,787,304
13,390,980,275
127,296,643
12,070,870,114
-162,184,717
11,125,314,696
-318,858,858
9,795,427,328
-521,064,560
9,062,951,185
-563,346,876
9,484,555,319
-366,356,674
9,228,946,745
-344,207,054
8,884,798,546
-344,195,283
8,552,142,114
-341,887,513
12,623,810,526
540,823,672
12,338,139,231
375,524,679
12,386,930,785
310,178,054
11,773,835,581
125,523,402
11,362,747,274
18,201,060
10,169,349,059
-224,118,795
8,323,215,926
-548,521,662
9,333,568,568
-236,746,802
10,066,550,705
-42,801,014
10,539,787,190
60,406,486
9,700,064,924
-119,619,264
10,091,455,125
-17,417,371
13,908,200,196
749,415,117
13,139,427,153
445,777,485
11,952,823,998
119,301,357
11,560,144,968
16,905,280
10,424,679,908
-213,568,788
10,464,498,202
-162,891,372
10,233,942,496
-176,424,239
10,106,901,093
-166,547,671
10,222,028,079
-110,212,740
10,082,772,899
-116,021,228
10,553,746,442
1,377,726
10,734,874,298
37,327,752
14,082,288,566
699,345,055
13,086,555,488
360,329,429
12,187,380,454
108,428,536
11,552,973,912
-40,138,479
10,753,802,266
-191,945,113
10,535,731,203
-197,170,303
8,379,870,453
-588,908,392
10,069,919,729
-133,116,859
Forecast
9,936,802,870
9,803,686,012
December
January
February
2011
2012
2012
3
4
5
9,670,569,153
9,537,452,295
9,404,335,436
gamma
Jan initial
Feb initial
March initial
April initial
May initial
.
.
.
alpha
beta
1.080346657
0.663036344
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
Year

2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
19,452,481,491
21,665,344,315
9,247,235,654
11,897,863,347
9,321,167,054
6,281,242,897
7,991,831,891
5,751,313,288
8,217,304,851
13,424,359,363
9,671,939,144
8,885,033,967
8,598,297,521
30,278,034,225
9,032,159,360
11,079,998,288
8,080,742,550
9,216,300,438
5,322,951,956
1,835,158,574
15,569,065,785
13,945,466,458
12,603,937,187
6,099,549,914
12,135,492,987
29,244,849,966
7,066,674,513
5,423,301,437
9,512,223,420
5,815,198,551
11,478,046,527
9,963,285,162
10,304,432,437
11,348,726,706
9,966,603,142
12,901,725,522
11,453,874,818
27,322,634,630
Level
10,957,581,872
7,849,802,228
14,063,626,966
15,677,137,516
11,075,545,578
9,268,281,455
9,414,274,873
8,644,489,031
7,335,731,276
12,578,950,547
8,861,353,311
10,002,929,743
7,277,344,702
11,682,266,702
13,189,230,897
14,677,355,731
9,443,032,525
14,122,187,297
5,378,632,420
2,960,499,350
15,117,940,756
11,917,569,926
12,065,371,271
6,322,129,168
11,160,625,045
10,754,466,536
10,295,165,108
6,957,604,531
12,143,286,609
8,124,876,302
13,479,837,946
15,100,368,800
8,761,674,524
10,579,284,202
9,458,902,071
14,539,107,557
9,434,115,599
10,425,049,159
Trend
0
-2,060,570,853
3,425,654,148
2,224,137,082
-2,301,569,331
-1,973,827,013
-568,309,025
-701,895,477
-1,104,267,223
3,104,347,015
-1,418,849,959
278,805,794
-1,713,214,521
2,343,332,349
1,788,789,866
1,589,438,022
-2,934,963,673
2,113,473,582
-5,085,130,873
-3,316,814,400
6,943,179,593
217,637,007
171,333,425
-3,750,245,109
1,944,402,313
385,895,060
-174,500,929
-2,271,724,433
2,672,807,114
-1,763,713,220
2,956,226,935
2,070,611,889
-3,505,063,726
24,062,188
-734,745,989
3,120,778,177
-2,333,206,379
-129,180,787
0.2
Season
0.989086367
2.681045421
0.687616261
0.75246218
0.804715506
0.680412685
0.863363814
0.664164346
1.11332555
1.108820673
1.032366228
0.905480448
1.146319719
2.696833538
0.68159871
0.753755915
0.812092186
0.679872922
0.860472197
0.664394594
1.114695496
1.100498181
1.044187837
0.902032991
1.153358929
2.675825725
0.682241607
0.753985583
0.820820942
0.674420618
0.886307326
0.655491961
1.097724472
1.114430593
1.044277735
0.914585118
1.140156916
2.68452484
0.683074708
0.759084117
0.813323128
0.682682023
0.879345334
0.656354388
1.113395629
1.106090685
1.046157071
0.909144263
1.154943733
2.671792645
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
6,306,242,954
7,149,362,603
8,581,633,603
7,717,669,600
10,431,227,400
545,108,664
19,185,750,403
October
November
December
January
February
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
1
2
3
4
5
9,146,675,548
-891,137,396 0.684351242
9,511,838,829
-58,164,388 0.757592856
10,639,513,504
728,090,008 0.81197478
11,299,889,840
683,193,383 0.682742872
11,852,803,399
596,813,125 0.879489098
-103,046,722 -7,726,058,819
-0.5329
19,245,301,359 10,225,256,944 1.090097641
Forecast
32,597,110,028
41,528,057,825
45,385,456,382
69,465,625,879
188,018,286,127
(BOP-Level)^2 (BOP-Trend)^2 (BOP-Season)^2

7.21633E+19 3.78399E+20
3.78399E+20
1.90869E+20 5.62919E+20
4.69387E+20
2.31976E+19 3.38908E+19
8.55114E+19
1.42829E+19
9.3581E+19
1.41559E+20
3.07784E+18 1.35088E+20
8.68842E+19
8.9224E+18 6.81462E+19
3.9454E+19
2.02334E+18
7.3276E+19
6.38694E+19
8.37047E+18 4.16439E+19
3.30776E+19
7.77172E+17 8.68917E+19
6.75241E+19
7.14716E+17 1.06503E+20
1.80213E+20
6.57049E+17 1.23006E+20
9.35464E+19
1.24969E+18 7.40672E+19
7.89438E+19
1.74492E+18 1.06327E+20
7.39307E+19
3.45803E+20 7.80348E+20
9.16759E+20
1.72812E+19 5.24664E+19
8.15799E+19
1.2941E+19 9.00707E+19
1.22766E+20
1.85583E+18 1.21346E+20
6.52984E+19
2.40677E+19 5.04501E+19
8.49402E+19
3.10031E+15 1.08328E+20
2.83338E+19
1.26639E+18 2.65428E+19
3.36781E+18
2.03514E+17 7.44059E+19
2.42396E+20
4.11236E+18 1.88453E+20
1.94476E+20
2.90053E+17
1.5457E+20
1.58859E+20
4.95415E+16 9.70185E+19
3.72045E+19
9.50368E+17 1.03858E+20
1.4727E+20
3.41894E+20 8.32839E+20
8.55261E+20
1.04232E+19 5.24346E+19
4.99379E+19
2.35409E+18 5.92134E+19
2.94122E+19
6.92249E+18 4.67776E+19
9.04824E+19
5.33461E+18 5.74399E+19
3.38165E+19
4.00717E+18 7.26214E+19
1.31746E+20
2.63896E+19 6.22943E+19
9.92671E+19
2.3801E+18 1.90702E+20
1.06181E+20
5.92042E+17 1.28248E+20
1.28794E+20
2.5776E+17 1.14519E+20
9.93332E+19
2.68102E+18 9.56669E+19
1.66455E+20
4.07943E+18 1.90084E+20
1.31191E+20
2.85528E+20 7.53602E+20
7.46526E+20
Sum
8.06806E+18
5.58129E+18
4.23487E+18
1.28323E+19
2.02088E+18
4.20105E+17
3.54632E+15
1.46288E+21
5.18023E+19
5.19484E+19
6.16781E+19
4.94839E+19
9.67157E+19
6.84122E+19
8.02904E+19
6.84837E+21
3.97687E+19
5.11134E+19
7.36444E+19
5.95624E+19
1.08811E+20
2.97143E+17
3.68093E+20
7.24524E+21
Seies 1
-0.471180556
-0.033149036
0.032156549
-0.55044984
-0.540269866
0.435547918
-0.396879841
0.582929715
-0.799609552
0.52264113
-0.187375917
-0.074483523
0.074341642
-0.090718004
0.34487698
-0.005037464
0.488927981
-0.136262884
-0.037447421
-0.100011903
-0.507897767
-0.193834921
0.223752068
0.102660238
0.204216121
-0.442580586
-0.201735247
-0.116745014
0.001962121
-0.389832167
-0.041266958
0.080344307
-0.241071803
0.021625624
-0.001640842
-0.114742647
-0.057973807
-0.443605131
0.215323098
0.089541345
-0.203407126
-0.177682296
-0.060055982
0.273810201
-0.395946017
-0.015417299
-0.123958444
-0.182242957
0.18743151
0.143323518
0.749721949
Series 2
0.795858
-0.1635
-0.74163
-0.46596
-0.30041
0.31086
-0.33136
0.032903
-0.11787
0.105116
-0.53603
0.62834
0.373191
0.260772
1.213335
0.256138
-0.21841
0.313856
0.699986
0.606288
0.157028
-0.19557
-0.18581
0.0855
0.034604
-0.23632
0.042653
-0.93564
0.207512
0.335912
0.202889
-0.44914
-0.07073
-1.26308
-0.35433
-0.78927
1.317727
-0.16259
-0.77849
-0.53173
0.671671
0.48189
-0.55069
0.890924
-0.36366
0.662475
0.031157
0.777853
-0.39255
0.095202
-0.09293
Series 3
-0.59498
-0.31529
0.146623
0.2306
-0.09209
-0.71079
-0.4416
-0.26541
0.148241
-0.40959
0.173472
-0.35923
0.750539
-0.59498
0.249292
-0.59304
0.574433
-0.1319
-1.11532
-0.63118
1.168708
1.22768
0.001377
-0.14992
-0.8749
-1.27903
-0.97558
-0.9679
-0.43953
0.234941
-0.33416
0.597238
-1.0143
-0.20924
0.223591
-0.35416
0.313566
-1.16304
0.29534
1.107284
-0.70382
-0.09487
0.842567
-0.48377
-1.20551
-0.44181
-1.3645
-0.45967
-0.60413
-0.10153
-1.38514
Series 1
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2 1
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
71
141 211 281 351 421 491 561 631
0.06329094
0.212305395
-0.100254397
0.149424068
-0.412085001
0.41994781
0.06592154
0.402284968
0.476532477
-0.085948614
-0.193326059
-0.600926796
-0.337991651
0.007287099
-0.393817118
-0.27643091
0.348501771
-0.558815373
-0.657335477
0.10780991
0.261341711
-0.112745056
0.007402036
-0.118330945
-0.099793624
0.308546532
0.281773282
0.640216967
0.194910626
0.210481744
-0.090213575
-0.116671004
0.342048224
0.175363084
-0.130108447
-0.169111445
0.247852768
-0.05027573
0.141910164
0.602127329
0.362773108
0.009376436
0.312309794
0.328047008
-0.232888397
-0.480877588
-0.377358901
0.637120138
0.128622446
0.486947101
0.198752673
-0.63954576
-0.44908
0.341942
0.734107
-0.24417
0.723073
0.117725
0.960432
0.448961
-0.45904
-0.13368
0.366696
-0.71182
-0.11319
-0.77204
0.403009
0.778172
-0.35816
0.359146
1.111702
-0.87467
0.879074
-0.23141
-0.69207
-0.58828
-1.18077
0.523354
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631 701 771 841 911 981
Series 1
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5 1
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
70
139 208 277
Series 2
277 346 415 484 553 622 691 760 829 898 967
Series 2
Series 3
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Series 3
69
137 205 273 341 409 477 545 613 681 749 817 885 953
Series 3
Sample 1.1
-0.471180556
-0.033149036
0.032156549
-0.55044984
-0.540269866
0.435547918
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0.582929715
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0.52264113
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0.074341642
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0.34487698
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0.18743151
0.143323518
0.749721949
Sample 1.2
Sample 1.1
Sample 1.2
0.421975074
0.485325018 Mean
-0.004827519 Mean
-0.014746038
-0.80706377 Sample Variance
0.095101967 Sample Variance
0.093206408
-0.115582679
-0.013923795 Covariance
0.004848329 Covariance
0.005277214
0.421235654
0.053584017
0.282201654
0.085685656
0.0441878
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Sample 2.1
0.795857886
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Sample 2.2
Sample 2.1
0.288191359
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Sample 2.2
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0.321830157
-0.05255265
0.133301455
-0.091346919
-0.130855369
0.589843694
-0.444902525
-0.055087412
0.587838258
-0.876664672
-0.94839379
-0.385297426
1.162246917
1.117630745
0.431359695
1.252341463
-0.538563199
0.015538717
0.346162096
-0.87639728
1.327101927
-0.80400514
-0.139942586
0.092043365
-0.301137334
-0.194017048
1.27075873
-0.911338248
0.160545369
0.112955831
-0.878135324
-1.056561814
1.643333235
-0.25483223
0.519002697
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-0.190393621
-0.191358822
0.024861265
-0.16697777
-0.467765176
0.629612714
0.318390903
-0.886388989
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0.514347903
0.344536602
-0.57252737
-0.521677975
0.180955794
-0.072720923
-0.243574505
0.551740413
-0.048361017
-0.561337856
0.861207809
-0.679370714
-0.054211569
-0.529694262
0.146743332
0.52275027
0.557863132
-0.065374479
-0.680679022
-0.861207809
0.564116817
0.637305675
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-0.499330326
0.604989509
-0.474198259
-0.686388375
-0.779664333
-0.462373009
0.480180461
0.209266545
0.591109711
-0.320665094
-0.262791218
0.313066266
0.110854216
0.112114776
0.070178658
0.049466053
0.399508735
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0.327463113
0.918827936
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-0.230720616
0.218805326
-1.188833266
-0.339461621
-0.417916453
0.413132057
0.371799615
0.459413968
0.243175464
0.160450554
0.14400257
0.626833753
0.361124421
0.315752459
0.7083936
0.601034571
0.026331236
-0.689487933
1.15367402
-0.52463156
-0.097341399
1.053759661
-0.423609436
-0.079893425
-0.212098712
-0.014436409
0.069115913
-0.189427737
-0.096410986
-0.253577127
-0.122407982
1.116593921
0.289685886
0.250568974
-0.536780135
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0.19551635
0.427801069
-0.726404323
0.421257482
-0.239791461
0.250218363
-0.966595508
0.224308678
0.27430815
-0.261124796
-0.699261363
1.364558557
0.239542487
-0.117912123
0.187692422
0.166691279
-0.756543159
-0.77742834
0.260418801
0.636016466
-0.0985508
-0.388744866
0.212587111
0.585100224
-0.909886694
0.876530976
-0.622728749
-0.618887043
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-0.821584763
0.26957764
0.240586814
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0.367581379
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-0.37547693
0.680766334
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-1.207365131
-0.210096005
0.374137926
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0.047624326
0.363161917
0.727648512
-0.285464239
-0.240487225
0.281256234
0.54748125
-0.383381348
1.034968591
0.004337608
-0.219100002
0.226475777
0.398706561
-0.066944722
-0.91075708
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-0.04592107
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-1.147327566
0.264054506
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0.208925485
0.043619593
0.800303951
-0.59215472
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0.310545147
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0.387216915
0.670212557
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0.772354724
0.319131004
0.417975116
0.298120995
0.277879735
0.17850698
0.488446403
0.309968073
1.210508344
0.465839548
-1.112211976
-1.426167728
-0.374695901
-0.303325578
-0.711351277
-0.360024842
-0.199247552
0.713022473
1.081702067
-0.309863026
0.329382601
-0.476334662
-0.868471034
-0.426854967
-0.165832489
0.614760211
0.276194896
-0.369633199
0.343509328
0.509328856
-0.037455266
0.035707671
-0.757459929
0.769944108
-0.377264769
-0.284385123
1.294660251
-0.480307335
-0.435650236
-0.156411033
0.304421064
0.022977929
-0.503626325
-0.242178885
0.708486368
-0.53952499
0.212782197
0.571515102
-0.480876224
-0.390728474
0.693231414
-0.39374072
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0.309652933
-0.01278363
0.87947501
0.624304448
0.501410796
-0.900151463
0.262892172
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0.24472115
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1.180767867
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1.070695362
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0.51461393
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0.303221213
-0.117444188
0.775413355
0.088514753
0.025642294
0.336771336
0.602780801
-1.296073606
0.124939334
0.485701548
-0.030512638
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-0.191551862
0.179418976
0.435470156
-0.72392686
0.845805516
0.422432095
0.053658368
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0.52725909
0.889131115
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1.319778676
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0.458183422
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-0.05822244
0.306824859
-0.332428272
1.038853952
-0.866773917
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0.030007868
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0.566549261
-0.732072749
0.412492227
0.262033382
0.832862952
-0.692159119
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0.006999926
0.764952347
0.125408633
-0.593202458
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0.168647603
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0.416571311
1.08972381
0.23676148
-0.094458755
0.242528131
-0.10055146
0.619903403
0.341510713
-0.444841817
-0.010626081
-0.215619821
-0.910175913
0.310702035
-0.914113116
-0.64330834
1.066215191
-0.814376108
-0.495189852
-0.704081231
0.581932454
-1.216903911
0.604989509
0.181723863
0.718821866
0.639326117
-0.007688186
-0.440864369
0.045736897
-0.329329396
0.170511157
0.153278734
-1.888372935
0.077069444
0.145750846
-1.094051186
0.033546712
0.131701881
-0.007642484
0.763918251
0.007642484
-0.672530405
0.352687948
0.192083235
-0.639568952
0.208291112
-0.280692802
-0.172136652
0.017559159
0.159546744
-0.80400514
-0.242178885
0.968278982
-0.848416676
-0.379785888
-0.415579507
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-0.316701289
0.201188868
0.258957016
0.581491804
0.513751729
-0.52739415
0.679196091
0.19537174
0.011957582
-0.38405733
0.483221356
-0.106981133
0.099993485
-0.326983582
-0.336127414
0.0244479
-0.032581511
-0.334248853
-0.235868583
-0.053336407
-0.074293894
-0.267852556
-0.654677933
-1.016567694
0.575719696
0.715913302
-0.542142971
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0.647319212
-0.501671366
-0.217530442
-0.11898851
0.726117833
-0.383099632
-0.697543783
-0.527462362
Sample 2.2
Mean
Sample Variance
Covariance
0.004192084
0.342871732
-0.015687447
Sample 3.1
-0.594976882
-0.315285433
0.146623279
0.230599653
-0.092092705
-0.710790118
-0.441597876
-0.265405106
0.14824127
-0.40958821
0.173471562
-0.359234036
0.750538675
-0.594976882
0.249292498
-0.593041477
0.574433216
-0.131896741
-1.115316991
-0.631178409
1.168707968
1.227679604
0.001376975
-0.149922926
-0.874904799
-1.279033313
-0.975582225
-0.967902452
-0.439532414
0.234940671
-0.334158358
0.597237886
-1.014304871
-0.209243808
0.223591087
-0.354164513
0.313566488
-1.163043635
0.295340215
1.107284334
-0.703823389
-0.094865754
0.842566806
-0.483774784
-1.205509761
-0.441811608
-1.364503987
-0.459671355
-0.604133675
-0.101525075
-1.385138603
Sample 3.2
Sample 3.1
-0.91541915
-0.866053597 Mean
-0.417421688 Sample Variance
-0.16971444
-0.080950485
1.639156835
0.243260729
-0.287036528
0.94859206
-0.164773155
-3.207474947
0.385698513
0.781117706
0.618805643
-0.622692824
-0.654761607
-0.040071427
-1.812179107
0.322772394
0.228048521
0.519988134
0.866164555
1.811378752
0.275383172
0.357880708
1.173710189
0.293375706
0.597399776
1.060700015
-0.172156433
-0.648112291
-0.628258931
0.027453098
0.420089236
-0.435480615
-0.230535989
-2.501066774
-0.121238372
0.936464858
1.858046744
0.620209903
-0.399226337
0.439958967
2.147629857
0.84662679
-1.206080924
0.468142389
-0.100476427
-1.817796146
-1.100310328
0.443666067
-0.852111043
0.425367034
-0.151479981
0.278761945
0.273501428
1.280353899
-2.230051905
0.293965059
-0.168900442
-0.984655344
-0.663354513
-0.473309228
0.877580533
0.105721483
-1.531298039
0.707254003
0.747219019
-0.644295142
0.470468876
0.847378033
1.225896995
-0.451826054
0.754826033
0.742027623
-0.351466042
0.580229425
0.58070691
0.709700544
-0.911777533
0.070438546
0.22817585
1.060405339
0.316740625
-0.242042915
-0.640494363
-0.103499588
0.557300154
0.332222953
-0.414549504
-0.43151158
-0.862433808
1.108403012
0.652455128
0.22875065
-0.913654731
-0.616744728
0.851679943
-0.61814535
0.529702447
0.050245944
2.103799488
-1.140953827
0.028371687
-0.387348337
-1.750871888
0.696731149
0.328091119
-0.787649697
0.473746695
0.223654752
-0.203423042
0.434274625
-0.733507477
0.736494258
-0.02696288
1.003059879
-0.137856659
-0.966760126
1.403015631
1.254804374
-0.338704922
1.156393409
1.524473191
-0.028616341
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0.609437848
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1.504282409
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0.708703737
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1.7680577
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1.602471457
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-0.420440301
-1.125761628
-1.372169208
0.353489668
-0.107512278
-1.991022145
0.154035661
0.952808477
-0.950449248
0.78507037
-0.530311809
-1.651846105
0.129168257
0.708974767
0.494917003
0.10201893
-0.825079042
-0.402487785
-1.12133057
-0.697536962
0.202917363
0.102327249
-0.071421709
-1.374035492
2.818182111
0.207977791
-0.60804814
-1.569715096
-0.491217179
-0.783980795
-0.252313839
-0.622692824
-0.510199243
1.001448254
0.640494363
1.647225872
0.074986019
0.45003253
-0.186653779
0.894646291
0.470905434
-0.309340976
0.464009645
1.025757228
0.824453309
1.282562152
-1.152580808
-0.719825039
0.187470505
1.556101779
-1.237305696
-0.100970283
0.688274667
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0.01918761
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0.211968654
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1.459062332
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1.28611282
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1.349035301
-0.4731628
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-1.114993211
0.323968379
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-0.87724402
1.596599759
2.199027222
-0.503392585
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-0.837575499
-1.248972694
0.028310751
0.180181814
0.035231096
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-0.57728721
0.208738129
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0.044728949
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1.211832569
-0.3237692
-1.005211743
0.851572622
-1.738342689
-0.613454176
-0.46792502
-0.20171683
0.354772055
1.047434125
0.466909114
-0.503840056
0.089506102
0.712607289
0.280779204
1.021178832
0.081443432
1.359552698
-0.348233698
1.156393409
0.460899173
0.97224256
-0.135434675
-1.289918146
0.332289346
-0.612222721
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0.881051164
-0.544808245
1.308213541
-0.617650585
0.841289875
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1.001048076
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-0.72396324
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1.027010512
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1.422511559
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-0.867155904
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1.65651727
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1.843814971
-0.039090992
-1.057320333
0.602020009
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0.637799531
0.046567948
-1.36818926
-1.604297722
0.654419637
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-0.21926644
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0.206901859
-2.251705155
-0.635196557
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0.288602678
0.642013219
-0.159463525
1.066773621
1.351581886
0.689517037
-0.558860847
0.196667315
-0.903623004
-0.060614184
1.386233635
-0.005416041
0.571111741
-0.884876499
0.163335244
0.870244548
0.500114766
0.528636519
-2.025306458
-0.42501415
0.781907147
0.178801201
1.036147296
0.478641596
-1.596599759
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1.006967068
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1.364242053
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1.702501322
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0.591029675
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Sample 3.1
Sample 3.2
0.064344891 Mean
-0.064325175
0.706793005
0.023876013
Seies 1
-0.471180556
-0.033149036
0.032156549
-0.55044984
-0.540269866
0.435547918
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0.582929715
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0.749721949
0
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-2.844497203
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-3.318237077
-3.333654377
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-3.452424266
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Series 2
0.795858
-0.1635
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-0.30041
0.31086
-0.33136
0.032903
-0.11787
0.105116
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0.373191
0.260772
1.213335
0.256138
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0.313856
0.699986
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0.157028
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0.202889
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1.317727
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0.890924
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0.662475
0.031157
0.777853
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0.095202
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0
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-0.41049
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1.06362
1.319759
1.101346
1.415203
2.115188
2.721477
2.878505
2.68294
2.497126
2.582626
2.61723
2.380915
2.423568
1.487924
1.695436
2.031348
2.234237
1.785094
1.714361
0.45128
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0.646394
0.282736
0.945211
0.976368
1.75422
1.361675
1.456877
1.363951
Series 3
-0.59498
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-0.26541
0.148241
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-1.11532
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1.168708
1.22768
0.001377
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0.234941
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0.597238
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0.29534
1.107284
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0.842567
-0.48377
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-1.3645
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-1.38514
0
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-1.77752
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-2.67822
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-6.03635
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-3.923004215
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-3.985130093
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1.256811
1.990918
1.746746
2.469818
2.587543
3.547975
3.996936
3.537892
3.404214
3.77091
3.059095
2.945905
2.173864
2.576874
3.355046
2.996887
3.356033
4.467735
3.593068
4.472142
4.240729
3.548659
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Series 1
2
0
1
70
139 208 277 346 415 484 553 622 691 760 829 898 967
-2
-4
Series 1
-6
-8
-10
-12
Series 2
15
10
5
Series 1
0
1
-5
-10
-15
70
139 208 277 346 415 484 553 622 691 760 829 898
Series 3
40
30
20
Series 2
10
829 898 967

0
1
-10
-20
70
139 208 277 346 415 484 553
Series 3
Series 3
553 622 691 760 829 898 967
Sample 1.1
-0.471180556
-0.504329591
-0.472173042
-1.022622882
-1.562892749
-1.127344831
-1.524224672
-0.941294957
-1.740904509
-1.218263378
-1.405639296
-1.480122819
-1.405781177
-1.496499181
-1.1516222
-1.156659664
-0.667731683
-0.803994567
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-1.449351657
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-1.419434511
-1.316774274
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-1.555138738
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-2.261489044
-2.302756002
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-2.463483497
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-2.558241363
-2.61621517
-3.059820301
-2.844497203
-2.754955858
-2.958362984
-3.136045279
-3.196101261
-2.92229106
-3.318237077
-3.333654377
-3.45761282
-3.639855777
-3.452424266
-3.309100748
-2.5593788
Sample 1.2
-1.991784529
-1.506459512
-2.313523282
-2.429105962
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Sample 1.1
Sample 1.2
Mean
Sample Variance
-2.12343791 Mean
-4.061435292
5.568522793
Covariance
5.484899373
Autocorrelation
0.976992552 Autocorrelation
0.984982836
-2.496087859
-2.283782464
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-8.266083455
-9.041289445
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-9.450987704
-9.454189239
-9.40872485
-9.239666952
-8.905330105
-9.284620774
-9.550520417
-9.621553431
-9.786778492
Sample 2.1
0.795857886
0.632360297
-0.109274424
-0.575238118
-0.875646265
-0.564785978
-0.896144684
-0.863241894
-0.98110695
-0.875990736
-1.412017809
-0.783677933
-0.410486791
-0.149714651
1.063620402
1.319758894
1.10134647
1.415202632
2.115188408
2.721476676
2.878505029
2.682939567
2.497126388
2.582626166
2.617230166
2.380914793
2.423567821
1.487924237
1.695436367
2.031348231
2.234236945
1.785094355
1.714361133
0.451280357
0.096954636
-0.692312597
0.625414259
0.462821845
-0.31566924
-0.847400315
-0.175729383
0.306160473
-0.244529474
0.646394255
0.282736437
0.945211013
0.976367573
1.754220193
1.361674549
1.456876817
1.363951469
Sample 2.2
-9.465938092
-10.28565111
-10.23014897
-9.970990732
-8.72186888
-7.654761475
-7.451532383
-8.130118658
-8.014638979
-7.940484238
-7.406779105
-7.26362714
-6.999774541
-7.365641068
-7.814359378
-7.194611499
-6.872515314
-6.111273706
-5.654379493
-6.618129191
-7.383392585
-6.36079767
-7.815625395
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-7.460852885
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-7.551695717
-7.731114692
-7.645290225
-7.21452534
-8.117514426
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-7.152674698
-6.759958524
-6.618647603
-6.991114333
-6.480929414
-6.719527846
-7.022801583
-8.019309462
-8.406752841
-7.695216027
-8.653833447
-8.673550838
-8.501701359
-8.266328678
-7.884915249
-5.844271072
-5.398462008
-4.378019867
Sample 2.1
Mean
Sample Variance
-1.38379217
31.41740387
Covariance
31.15912321
Autocorrelation
0.991779058
Sample 2.2
0.914868906
1.256810719
1.990917553
1.746745511
2.469818355
2.587542895
3.547974757
3.996935902
3.537891644
3.40421434
3.770910325
3.059095206
2.945905408
2.173864459
2.57687384
3.355045692
2.996887133
3.356033403
4.467735153
3.593067731
4.472141654
4.240729368
3.548658924
2.960375923
1.779608056
2.302962002
3.279778412
3.732391633
4.49291565
3.997403837
3.702290996
3.286886795
2.718902351
2.308036301
2.90431376
3.825073463
3.862114681
3.054035915
1.821279511
0.842905138
1.590788088
2.15783939
1.895351033
1.655510459
2.483468961
2.19223466
2.09089194
2.398868219
3.090669907
2.993514727
3.947229061
4.719163599
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-4.648036111
-4.337334076
-5.251447192
-5.894755532
-4.828540341
-5.642916449
-6.138106301
-6.842187531
-6.260255077
-7.477158988
-6.872169479
-6.690445616
-5.97162375
-5.332297633
-5.339985819
-5.34551782
-5.299780923
-5.629110319
-5.458599162
-5.305320428
-7.193693364
-7.11662392
-6.970873073
-8.064924259
-8.031377547
-7.899675666
-7.90731815
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-7.135757414
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-7.455599871
-7.263516636
-7.903085589
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-8.14762393
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-7.970518027
-8.774523167
-9.016702052
-8.048423069
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-9.69220514
-9.897574046
-10.21427533
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-9.754129451
-4.758494015
-4.244742286
-4.772136435
-4.092940344
-3.897568604
-3.885611022
-4.269668352
-3.786446996
-3.893428129
-3.793434644
-4.120418225
-4.456545639
-4.432097739
-4.46467925
-4.798928103
-5.034796686
-5.088133094
-5.162426987
-5.430279543
-6.084957477
-7.101525171
-6.525805475
-5.809892173
-6.352035143
-6.585228448
-5.937909236
-6.439580602
-6.657111044
-6.776099553
-6.049981721
-6.433081353
-7.130625136
-7.658087497
Sample 2.2
Mean
Sample Variance
-5.19540056
5.84629289
Covariance
5.650538184
Autocorrelation
0.966516439
Sample 3.1
Sample 3.2
-0.594976882 31.25702642
-0.910262315 30.39097282
-0.763639036 29.97355114
-0.533039383
29.8038367
-0.625132088 29.02409778
-1.335922207
28.9431473
-1.777520083 30.58230413
-2.042925189 30.82556486
-1.894683919 30.53852834
-2.30427213
31.4871204
-2.130800567 31.32234724
-2.490034603 28.11487229
-1.739495929 28.50057081
-2.334472811 29.28168851
-2.085180313 29.90049416
-2.67822179 29.27780133
-2.103788574 28.62303973
-2.235685315
28.5829683
-3.351002306 26.77078919
-3.982180715 27.09356158
-2.813472747
27.3216101
-1.585793143 27.84159824
-1.584416168 28.70776279
-1.734339094 30.51914155
-2.609243893 30.79452472
-3.888277206 31.15240543
-4.863859431 32.32611562
-5.831761882 32.61949132
-6.271294296
33.2168911
-6.036353625 34.27759111
-6.370511983 34.10543468
-5.773274097 33.45732239
-6.787578968 32.82906346
-6.996822776 32.85651655
-6.773231689 33.27660579
-7.127396202 32.84112518
-6.813829714 32.61058919
-7.976873349 30.10952241
-7.681533134 29.98828404
-6.5742488
30.9247489
-7.278072189 32.78279564
-7.372937944 33.40300555
-6.530371138 33.00377921
-7.014145922 33.44373818
-8.219655683 35.59136803
-8.661467291 36.43799482
-10.02597128
35.2319139
-10.48564263 35.70005629
-11.08977631 35.59957986
-11.19130138 33.78178371
-12.57643999 32.68147339
Sample 3.1
Mean
Sample Variance
Covariance
Autocorrelation
-12.13277392
-12.98488496
-12.55951793
-12.71099791
-12.43223596
-12.15873453
-10.87838064
-13.10843254
-12.81446748
-12.98336792
-13.96802327
-14.63137778
-15.10468701
-14.22710648
-14.12138499
-15.65268303
-14.94542903
-14.19821001
-14.84250515
-14.37203628
-13.52465824
-12.29876125
-12.7505873
-11.99576127
-11.25373365
-11.60519969
-11.02497026
-10.44426335
-9.734562809
-10.64634034
-10.5759018
-10.34772595
-9.287320609
-8.970579984
-9.212622899
-9.853117263
-9.95661685
-9.399316696
-9.067093742
-9.481643247
-9.913154827
-10.77558863
-9.667185623
-9.014730495
-8.785979844
-9.699634575
-10.3163793
-9.46469936
-10.08284471
-9.553142263
-9.502896319
-7.39909683
31.54051956
31.56889125
31.18154291
29.43067102
30.12740217
30.45549329
29.66784359
30.14159029
30.36524504
30.161822
30.59609662
29.86258914
30.5990834
30.57212052
31.5751804
31.43732374
30.47056362
31.87357925
33.12838362
32.7896787
33.94607211
35.4705453
35.44192896
34.76080292
34.01575759
34.62519544
34.04472682
35.54900923
35.07226938
35.78097312
35.49615485
34.77090013
36.53895783
36.01153912
35.91063069
35.33730523
34.48259849
36.08506995
35.56334195
35.0071341
35.61403992
35.19359962
34.06783799
32.69566878
33.04915845
32.94164617
30.95062402
31.10465968
32.05746816
31.10701891
31.89208928
31.36177747
-9.050942936
-8.921774679
-8.212799912
-7.717882909
-7.615863979
-8.44094302
-8.843430805
-9.964761375
-10.66229834
-10.45938097
-10.35705372
-10.42847543
-11.80251093
-8.984328815
-8.776351024
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-10.95411426
-11.44533144
-12.22931223
-12.48162607
-13.1043189
-13.61451814
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-9.8003311
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-7.231276868
-7.019308214
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-6.280713023
-6.654287972
-5.743212569
30.83199863
29.6631124
30.94922522
30.91944473
30.81143859
29.95173509
30.88807807
29.29505081
29.37766294
29.51390525
30.86294055
30.38977775
30.85480057
29.73980736
30.06377574
29.53361673
28.31908114
28.56747415
27.58399205
27.12265996
25.36227112
24.3476934
24.11824244
23.37555452
23.36267153
22.48542751
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26.28105449
25.7776619
24.84180459
24.00422909
22.7552564
22.78356715
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22.70232835
22.08895603
21.51166882
21.72040695
20.29550888
19.9480819
19.99281085
20.2444171
19.31267252
18.81382195
18.331295
18.02465613
16.85772349
17.53761808
16.73004863
16.25950699
16.08258754
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16.92387741
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14.97858557
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25.02056032 2.303601832
26.15311587 2.208057595
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27.6526107 1.604945282
27.45247275 1.315427653
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26.2544927 1.250043169
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1.862104
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28.27300796 3.220381586
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28.68825504 3.438252861
29.32866482 2.288604264
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30.56494552 3.330425898
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3.23326276
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31.13456387 2.825299816
31.83317585 1.566926585
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32.09964325 -0.283383997
33.15040249 0.934262061
33.48175869 1.806833097
34.04688596 1.131144018
33.30032905 2.479422619
34.1802579 2.589034921
33.67939917 1.835926014
33.34584198 1.857990355
33.87668858 0.557176463
34.47676045 1.413616701
33.14319383 1.169266397
32.79785142 1.889458872
31.90434927 1.959406291
31.55416289 2.365371074
32.13678337 2.529331141
31.93973771 2.304276677
30.55350408 2.028568815
31.38119155 1.637913556
31.70642231 0.685974555
32.43546962 0.574323167
31.84395791 0.986844498
32.70420711 0.712240762
32.17244557 0.009858013
Sample 3.1
Sample 3.2
3.990280424 Mean
0.994053574 Autocorrelation
15.59791709
112.6766757
111.8338525
0.992519985
Series 1
0.118668
0.305941
-1.55579
0.595062
-0.68937
0.642472
-0.23846
-0.07282
0.205573
-0.03651
-0.02182
-0.26026
0.00415
-1.32193
-0.20311
-0.05648
-0.22218
0.791786
-0.61034
0.988368
0.642309
0.802127
0.944885
-0.28527
0.025736
0.668878
-0.58331
-0.68512
-0.10094
-0.12666
0.123126
0.285682
1.023398
0.553305
0.879914
1.376824
0.241358
-1.03844
0.371641
1.380548
-0.60023
-0.50561
-1.0905
-0.77043
0.220324
-0.1445
0.071855
-0.35815
-0.68581
-1.90826
0
0.118668
0.42461
-1.13118
-0.53611
-1.22548
-0.58301
-0.82147
-0.89429
-0.68872
-0.72523
-0.74706
-1.00731
-1.00316
-2.3251
-2.52821
-2.58469
-2.80687
-2.01508
-2.62543
-1.63706
-0.99475
-0.19262
0.752262
0.466987
0.492724
1.161602
0.578292
-0.10683
-0.20777
-0.33443
-0.2113
0.074379
1.097777
1.651082
2.530995
3.907819
4.149177
3.110734
3.482375
4.862923
4.262696
3.757083
2.666581
1.896153
2.116477
1.971973
2.043828
1.685683
0.999871
-0.90839
Series 2
0.672437
-0.65589
0.394029
0.405248
-0.24113
-0.26866
-0.21594
0.11172
-1.26719
0.076109
0.472328
1.041512
-0.00961
-0.09894
-0.36586
-0.44984
-0.25293
1.015511
0.457705
0.90194
0.178161
-0.01422
0.662649
-0.26221
1.373138
0.193138
-0.1102
0.180375
-0.75809
1.6058
0.853747
0.672946
0.201775
-0.31593
0.714241
-0.3211
-0.48409
0.042195
0.476167
0.540877
-0.30588
1.206757
-0.64345
0.876737
-1.09905
0.548924
-1.48407
-0.14166
-0.16475
0.704487
0
0.672437
0.016546
0.410576
0.815823
0.574693
0.306037
0.090098
0.201818
-1.06537
-0.98926
-0.51694
0.524577
0.514965
0.416026
0.050168
-0.39968
-0.6526
0.362908
0.820613
1.722553
1.900715
1.886497
2.549145
2.286935
3.660072
3.85321
3.743008
3.923383
3.165296
4.771097
5.624844
6.29779
6.499565
6.183636
6.897876
6.57678
6.092685
6.13488
6.611047
7.151924
6.846042
8.052799
7.409347
8.286084
7.187032
7.735956
6.251882
6.110222
5.945469
6.649956
Regression 1RW (Y-B;X-E)

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
-0.77843
0.17352
0.449316
0.934339
0.016307
-0.57442
0.274254
-0.83153
0.12057
-0.17833
0.34303
1.395459
0.266696
0.025307
-0.39158
-0.34134
-0.32712
-0.59868
1.103298
0.810129
-0.67584
0.337064
-0.07186
-0.69224
-0.07347
-0.13609
-0.43923
-0.8138
-0.82775
0.50777
-0.178
0.654313
0.922341
-0.99055
-0.26848
0.100183
-0.58924
1.901739
-0.18636
-0.11373
-0.35808
-0.76847
0.169932
-1.23014
0.32634
-1.31157
-0.84093
-0.90725
2.126704
0.138383
-1.68681
-1.51329
-1.06398
-0.12964
-0.11333
-0.68775
-0.41349
-1.24503
-1.12446
-1.30279
-0.95976
0.435702
0.702398
0.727705
0.336121
-0.00522
-0.33234
-0.93102
0.17228
0.98241
0.306567
0.643631
0.571776
-0.12047
-0.19394
-0.33003
-0.76926
-1.58306
-2.41081
-1.90304
-2.08103
-1.42672
-0.50438
-1.49493
-1.76341
-1.66323
-2.25247
-0.35073
-0.53709
-0.65082
-1.0089
-1.77737
-1.60744
-2.83758
-2.51124
-3.8228
-4.66374
-5.57099
-3.44428
-3.3059
0.864091
0.055616
-0.61901
-0.63646
0.423432
0.508537
-0.24842
0.411533
0.759919
-0.3509
-0.38565
-0.8458
0.191247
0.957968
-0.89583
-0.36408
0.343996
-0.46116
0.533545
0.679435
-0.12753
1.147552
-0.6264
-0.09051
-0.81485
-0.97083
0.260086
1.247311
-0.0162
-0.03303
-0.52166
-1.83912
0.196923
0.050084
-0.11177
0.196811
-0.47968
0.601543
-0.16074
-0.52442
1.402965
-0.30948
-0.3267
-0.76613
-1.31813
0.339352
-0.80992
0.747962
-0.53677
0.638079
7.514047
7.569663
6.950657
6.3142
6.737632
7.246169
6.997752
7.409285
8.169203
7.818302
7.432652
6.586848
6.778095
7.736063
6.840229
6.47615
6.820146
6.358987
6.892532
7.571967
7.444434
8.591986
7.965583
7.875074
7.06022
6.089388
6.349474
7.596785
7.580586
7.54756
7.025896
5.186777
5.3837
5.433784
5.32201
5.518821
5.039138
5.640681
5.479945
4.95552
6.358485
6.049005
5.722307
4.956181
3.638049
3.977401
3.167482
3.915444
3.378672
4.01675
1RW (Y-B;X-E)
Regression S
egression Statistics
0.362414092
0.131343974
0.122480137
1.759883621
100
df
1
98
99
SS
MS
F
Significance F
45.89404011 45.89404 14.81796
0.00021108
303.5246553 3.09719
349.4186954

-1.555776875
0.357491321
0.246138339
0.063941831
t Stat
P-value
-4.35193 3.31E-05
3.84941 0.000211
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
-2.265206749
-0.846347
0.119247859 0.373028819
Regression 2RW (Y-E;X-B)

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
0.362414092
R Square
0.131343974
Adjusted R Square
0.122480137
Standard Error
2.591252653
Observations
100
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
1
98
99
SS
99.49652466
658.0298504
757.5263751

5.057496151
0.263833352
0.533618511
0.138623446
MS
F
Significance F
99.49652466 14.81796
0.00021108
6.71459031
t Stat
P-value
19.16928282
6.3E-35
3.849410229 0.000211
Lower 95%
4.533927463
0.258524801
Regresion WN1(Y-A;X-D)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
0.035752506
R Square
0.001278242
Adjusted R Square
-0.008912797
Standard Error
0.727983676
Observations
100
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Upper 95%
5.581064839
0.808712221
Intercept
X Variable 1
1
98
99
SS
MS
F
0.066471858 0.066472 0.125428011
51.93610282 0.52996
52.00257468

-0.031512047
0.072929288
-0.03851207
0.108742569
t Stat
P-value
-0.43209 0.66662493
-0.35416 0.723981223
Regression WN2(Y-D;X-A)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
0.035752506
R Square
0.001278242
Adjusted R Square
-0.008912797
Standard Error
0.675820356
Observations
100
ANOVA
Significance F
0.723981
Lower 95% Upper 95%

-0.17624 0.113213748
-0.25431 0.177284015
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
1
98
99
SS
MS
0.057287131 0.057287
44.75984906 0.456733
44.81713619
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
0.039070253
0.067653014 0.577509
-0.033190677
0.093717101 -0.35416
F
Significance F
0.125428
0.723981223
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
0.56492 -0.095184949 0.173325454
0.723981 -0.219169209 0.152787855

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Project Time Series 2

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Balance of payments of the EU institutions - Monthly data

Euro (from 1.1.1999)/ECU (up to 31.12.1998)

Exp smoothing with alpha=0.3

Abs error (all period average)

Absolute error (3MA)

Absolute error (ES with alpha 0.2)

Absolute error (ES with alpha 0.3)

European Commission BOP

Centered average Average Jan to Dec

Average Feb to Jan Seasonality factors

Seasonality factors for similar months

Seasonality factors for forecast

Season y factors Deseasonalised BOP

Coefficients Standard Error

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

European Commission BOP

European Commission BOP

(BOP-Level)^2 (BOP-Trend)^2 (BOP-Season)^2

141 211 281 351 421 491 561 631

-0.763517164 -1.01657 -0.24435

631 701 771 841 911 981

139 208 277

829 898 967

139 208 277 346 415 484 553

553 622 691 760 829 898 967

Regression 1RW (Y-B;X-E)

Coefficients Standard Error

Regression 2RW (Y-E;X-B)

Coefficients Standard Error

Coefficients Standard Error

Lower 95% Upper 95%

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