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Macroeconomic risks
Growth in the sporting goods industry is highly dependent on consumer spending and consumer confidence. Economic downturns, socio-political factors such as civil unrest, nationalisation or expropriation, in particular in regions where the Group is highly represented, therefore pose a significant risk to sales development. To mitigate this risk, the Group strives to balance sales across key global regions and also between developed and emerging markets. In addition, we continuously monitor the macroeconomic and political landscape in all our key markets to anticipate potential problem areas, so that we are able to quickly adjust our business activities accordingly upon any change in conditions. 03 Corporate risk evaluation categories listed in ascending order Likelihood of occurrence Potential financial impact Unlikely Marginal Possible Minor Likely Moderate Probable Significant Highly probable Major Furthermore, a core element of our positioning in performance sports is the utilisation of an extensive global event and partnership portfolio where demand is more predictable and less sensitive to macroeconomic influences. In 2012, we expect the global economy to grow, albeit with varying degrees of performance geographically.As a result, we continue to assess the likelihood that adverse macroeconomic events could impact our business as likely. However, as a result of the highly challenging macroeconomic environment in many European countries, Japan and the USA, we regard the potential financial impact of macroeconomic and sociopolitical factors as major, which represents an increase compared to the prior year evaluation.
Therefore, we utilise extensive primary and secondary research tools as outlined in our risk and opportunity identification process. As a leader in our industry, our brand strategies are focused on influencing rather than reacting to the changing consumer environment. We invest significant resources in research and development to innovate and bring fresh new technologies and designs to market. We also seek to enhance consumer demand for our brands through extensive marketing, product and brand communication programmes. And we focus on supply chain improvements to shorten production lead times. Given the broad spectrum of our Groups product offering, feedback from retailers, consumers and athletes as well as evidence from our own-retail stores and other early indicators, we view the risk from consumer demand shifts as unchanged versus the prior year. We therefore rate the likelihood of changes in consumer demand as likely, and the potential financial impact as moderate.
Hazard risks
The youngone Group is exposed to external risks such as natural disasters, epidemics, fire, accidents and malicious acts. Physical damage to our own or our suppliers premises, production units, warehouses and stock in transit can lead to property damage and business interruption. These risks are mitigated by loss prevention measures such as working with reliable suppliers and logistics providers who guarantee high safety standards. In addition to the insurance
coverage we have secured, the Group has also implemented contingency plans and preventative measures (e.g. sprinklers in facilities) to minimise potential negative effects. As a result of the increasing frequency of natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, floods, etc.) around the world, we now assess the potential occurrence of hazard risks as possible. Should those risks materialise, the potential financial impact could be major, reflecting the fundamental and devastating consequences natural disasters or terrorist acts might have on our business.
Own-retail risks
New youngone own-retail stores require considerable up-front investment in furniture and fixtures as well as ongoing maintenance. In addition, own-retail activities often require longerterm lease or rent commitments. Retail also employs significantly more personnel in relation to sales than our wholesale business. The higher portion of fixed costs compared to our wholesale business implies a larger profitability impact in cases of significant sales declines. Delayed openings or poorly executed store operations could lead to sales shortfalls and also negatively affect brand image. Further, inability to secure appropriate store locations may result in worse than expected sales development. The Group reduces this risk by only entering into lease contracts with durations of less than ten years. Store openings are managed according to a standardised Group-wide business plan model. Store performance is measured by a retail scorecard consisting of nine quantitative key performance indicators. Underperforming stores are reorganised, remodelled or closed as appropriate.
Our increased focus on improving our sophistication as a retailer by investing in management expertise as well as in IT systems remains a key priority for 2012. Nevertheless, we continue to view the risk of underperformance of some of our own-retail stores as likely. The potential financial impact from own-retail underperformance, which may also involve impairment charges and store closures, is moderate.
Supplier risks
Almost the entire Youngone Group product offering is sourced through independent suppliers, mainly located in Asia. To reduce the risk of business interruptions following the potential underperformance of a supplier, the relocation of a suppliers production sites or a potential supplier default, we work with vendors who demonstrate reliability, quality, innovation and continuous improvement. Furthermore, in order to minimise any potential negative consequences such as product quality shortfalls, increased product lead times or violation of our Workplace Standards, we enforce strict control and inspection procedures at our suppliers and also demand adherence to social and environmental standards throughout our supply chain. In addition, we have bought insurance coverage for the risk of business interruptions caused by physical damage to supplier premises.
As a result, we assess supplier risks as having a possible likelihood of occurrence and a major potential financial impact.
Inventory risks
As we place initial production orders around six months in advance of delivery, the youngone Group is exposed to inventory risks relating to misjudging consumer demand at the time of production planning. A sudden decline in demand has the potential to cause excess inventories. This can have negative implications for our financial performance, including higher levels of clearance activity and inventory obsolescence as well as reduced liquidity due to higher operating working capital requirements. Similarly, a sudden increase in demand can lead to product shortfalls at the point of sale. In this situation, our Group faces the risk of missed sales opportunities and/or customer and consumer disappointment, which could lead to a reduction in brand loyalty and our reputation as an ontime, in-full supplier. In addition, the Group faces potential profitability impacts from costs such as air freight in efforts to speed up replenishment. In order to mitigate these risks, we continuously strive to improve our forecasting and material planning processes. To that end, in 2011, we began to introduce an enhanced forecasting approach around full integration of key business functions globally. In addition, our Global Operations function offers sophisticated and tailored replenishment models in order to shorten order-to-delivery times, ensuring availability of products while avoiding excess inventories. Nevertheless, the expected over-proportionate growth of the Retail segment will increase the exposure towards swings in consumer demand, and also makes the Group more susceptible to the risk of inventory shrinkage or excess inventory. As a result, we now assess inventory risks to have a probable likelihood and a moderate potential financial impact on our Group.
Customer risks
Customer risks arise from our dependence on key customers who have the ability to exert bargaining power and can therefore cause considerable margin pressure or cancel orders. These risks exist not only due to the relative size of some of our major customers, but also as a result of our limited ability to influence how they conduct business. To limit these risks, we utilise a broad distribution strategy which includes further expanding our controlled space activities. This enables us to reduce negative consequences resulting from sales shortfalls that can occur with key customers. Specifically, no single customer of our Group accounted for more than 10% of Group sales in 2011. In addition, building strong relationships with retailers to become a valuable and reliable business partner for them is one of the guiding principles of our Wholesale segment. By differentiating our product offering to customers, we limit the risk of increased price competition on specific products.
Furthermore, with our substantial marketing efforts we are aiming at building desirable brands which resonate with the tastes of our consumers and ultimately drive high sell-through rates for our customers. Given our strong partnerships with key retailers, we now view the likelihood of occurrence for customer risks as likely. The potential financial impact on the Group is regarded as major.
Regulatory risks
Regulatory risks predominantly include potential losses from significant changes to trade policies. In particular, the youngone Group faces risks arising from sudden increases of import restrictions, as well as import tariffs and duties that could compromise the free flow of goods within the Group and from suppliers. To limit these risks, we proactively utilise a regionally diversified supplier base, which provides some protection against unforeseen changes in regulations and also allows us to shift production to other countries at an early stage if necessary. Furthermore, building on our leading position within the sporting goods industry, we actively engage in supporting policymakers to liberalise global trade and curtail trade barriers. As a result of the likelihood of rising protectionist activity by governments, we continue to regard further political and regulatory actions as having a likely potential of occurrence. An unexpected material change in the political and regulatory environment could have a significant financial impact on the Group.
sophisticated scouting system enables us to identify the most attractive and relevant sponsorship assets. Given the maturity profile of our most important promotion contracts and the vast portfolio of partnerships, we believe the overall risk related to key event or promotion partnerships is possible. We assess the potential financial impact of this risk to be significant in the medium term.
Personnel risks
Achieving the youngone Groups goal of becoming the global leader in the sporting goods industry is highly dependent on our employees and their talents. The loss of key personnel in strategic positions is therefore an obvious risk we face. We also face the risk of being unable to identify, recruit and retain the most talented people who best meet the specific needs of our Group. In addition, a lack of sufficient training measures might cause the dilution of critical knowledge, in particular within the product design and development area. To reduce this risk, we strongly engage in developing a motivating working environment. Our goal is to make the youngone Group the employer of choice within our industry. Attractive reward and incentive schemes are designed to further support long-term career opportunities and planning. With the expansion of our own-retail activities and the increase of our employee base in emerging markets, we believe that employee turnover will slightly increase in the future. Moreover, labour markets are becoming increasingly more competitive, with the battle for the most talented employees constantly intensifying.
Therefore, we continue to assess the likelihood of occurrence of personnel risks as likely. If they materialise, these risks could have a moderate financial impact on our Group.
IT risks
Key business processes including product marketing, order management, warehouse management, invoice processing, customer support and financial reporting are all dependent on IT systems. A significant systems outage or loss of data could result in considerable disruptions to our business. Insufficient project management could delay the execution of projects critical to the Group or make them more expensive than planned. Virus or malware attacks could also lead to systems disruption and may result in the loss of business-critical and/or confidential information. To mitigate these risks, our IT organisation proactively engages in system preventive maintenance, service continuity planning and adherence to applicable IT policies. Data security is managed by restricting user access based on job description and adhering to data protection regulations. Additional security measures such as anti-virus software and firewalls are designed to further protect our systems and critical information. We perform multiple backups at alternating data centre locations for the Groups core enterprise resource planning system (ERP) on a daily basis. In addition, for the ERP system, our contingency solution allows us to quickly switch to a remote site if necessary without any loss of data. System security, controls and reliability are reviewed and tested by the Internal Audit department. IT project risks are further mitigated by utilising a proven project methodology for all IT projects that includes tight cost control and regular risk reviews for all major projects. The IT organisations strategic direction and five-year plan is aligned with the youngone Groups overall Route 2015 strategic business plan. New quality reviews for major projects have been implemented to ensure that the progress, quality and costs of those projects are regularly evaluated by members of senior management. As a result of an increased frequency of IT-related criminal activities worldwide, we now believe the risk of a major IT default is possible. Such a default could result in a significant potential financial impact.