Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

Highlights
German Producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2 percent in March. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 16.3 bn Euros in February. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of increase in the Japans exports which led to rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY** SENSEX** DJIA S&P FTSE 5783.1 19016.5 14547.51 1555.3 15760.8 1906.8 58497.8 13316.5 88.01 1395.30 2295.50 6967.50 102.09 Prev. day 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 -1.5 0.0

as on April 19, 2013 WoW 4.6 4.2 -2.1 -2.4 -0.1 -0.9 6.4 -0.1 -3.6 2.6 -1.7 -6.2 0.5 MoM -0.9 -1.4 0.2 0.4 -1.8 -3.6 6.6 7.9 -6.1 -13.0 -20.3 -11.2 0.9 YoY 8.5 4.0 12.2 13.0 10.3 -2.6 -6.4 38.9 -13.9 -15.0 -27.5 -13.3 -0.3

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from US, Euro Zone and China also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities traded on a weak note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched a high of 82.895 in the last week and closed at 82.846 on Friday.

KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent. The currency appreciated on account of positive wholesale price index (WPI) coupled with favorable trade balance data. Additionally, domestic equities trading on an upbeat note along with expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on 3rd May 2013 also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of strength in the DX and dollar demand from importers and custodian banks. The currency touched a weekly high of 53.76 and closed at 53.93 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.595.90 crores th ($110.89 million) as on 18 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.56,218.20 crores ($10,421.0 million) till 18th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of cut in the key rates by the central bank of the country in the monetary policy which will be rd announced on 3 May will also support an upside in the currency.

Source: Reuters ** Indian Markets were closed on Friday on the occasion of Ram Navami

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot)** US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 82.85 54.02 54.03 54.03 Prev. day 0.2 0.3 -0.43 -0.42 WoW 0.5 0.9 -1.15 -1.13

as on April 19, 2013 MoM -0.1 0.1 -0.46 -0.46 YoY 4.3 -4.3 3.46 3.48

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for April 22, 2013 Support 53.85/53.60 Resistance 54.30/54.50

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Jens Weidmann said that central bank may cut the interest rates if economic conditions demand for it added downside pressure. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from Europe acted as a negative factor for the currency. However, sharp decline in the currency was cushioned as the ECB president Draghi said that central back expects Euro zone economy to recover steadily in the second half of the year. German Producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2 percent in March as compared to decline of 0.1 percent in February. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 16.3 billion Euros in February as against a previous surplus of 13.8 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched a low of 1.3045 in the last week and closed at 1.3051 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, expectation of unfavorable consumer confidence data from euro zone may cap sharp gains in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 22, 2013 Support 70.40/70.20 Resistance 70.80/71.10

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot)** Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE)** Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCXSX)** 1.3051 70.68 70.6 70.6 Prev. day 0.0 0.3 -0.93 -0.91

as on April 19, 2013 WoW -0.5 1.2 -1.37 -1.36 MoM 0.5 -0.8 0.38 0.38 YoY -0.6 -4.3 3.37 3.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day -0.32 -0.115 -0.30

as on April 19, 2013

WoW -0.7 -1.20 -1.38

MoM 0.0 1.12 0.48

YoY -5.1 -0.52 -1.00

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.7 percent on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, rise in Inflation exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, rise in unemployment rate in the country acted as a negative factor for the sterling pound. Apart from that, Bank of Englands April meeting minutes showed that policymaker s remained divided over the decision of further monetary stimulus kept the currency under pressure. However, decline in claimant count change cushioned sharp depreciation in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5222 and closed at 1.523 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, weakness in DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 22, 2013 Support 82.20/81.80 Resistance 82.80/83.10

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot)** GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

1.523 82.549 82.48

82.47

-0.30

-1.42

0.47

-1.01

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.1 percent in the last week on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched a low of 99.68 in the last week and closed at 99.50 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 22, 2013 Support 54.70/54.40 Resistance 55.25/55.55
Source: Telequote

as on April 19, 2013 Last 99.5 0.5501 54.98 54.98 Prev day 1.4 -0.54 -1.06 -1.08 WoW 1.1 0.57 0.10 0.07 MoM 5.3 -3.00 -3.84 -3.86 YoY 22.0 -13.63 -14.21 -14.16

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot)** JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 22, 2013

Indicator Existing Home Sales Country US Time (IST) 7:30pm Actual Forecast 5.02M Previous 4.98M Impact High

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