Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
German Producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2 percent in March. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 16.3 bn Euros in February. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of increase in the Japans exports which led to rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from US, Euro Zone and China also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities traded on a weak note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched a high of 82.895 in the last week and closed at 82.846 on Friday. On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent. The currency appreciated on account of positive wholesale price index (WPI) coupled with favorable trade balance data. Additionally, domestic equities trading on an upbeat note along with expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on rd 3 May 2013 also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of strength in the DX and dollar demand from importers and custodian banks. The currency touched a weekly high of 53.76 and closed at 53.93 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.595.90 crores th ($110.89 million) as on 18 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.56,218.20 crores ($10,421.0 million) till 18 April 2013. German Producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2 percent in March as compared to decline of 0.1 percent in February. Europe Current Account was at surplus of 16.3 billion Euros in February as against a previous surplus of 13.8 billion Euros a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.02 Prev day 0.3

as on 19 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.9 m-o-m 0.1 y-o-y -4.3

$/Euro (Spot)

1.305

0.2

-0.5

0.7

-0.5

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.85

0.2

0.5

-0.1

4.3

5783.1

1.7

4.6

-0.9

8.5

SENSEX

19016.5

1.5

4.2

-1.4

4.0

DJIA

14547.5

0.1

-2.1

0.2

12.2

S&P

1555.3

0.9

-2.4

0.4

13.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Jens Weidmann said that central bank may cut the interest rates if economic conditions demand for it added downside pressure. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from Europe acted as a negative factor for the currency. However, sharp decline in the currency was cushioned as the ECB president Draghi said that central back expects Euro zone economy to recover steadily in the second half of the year. The Euro touched a low of 1.3045 in the last week and closed at 1.3051 against dollar on Friday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices decreased around 5.0 percent in the last week on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, rise in the worries among the investors that the Cyprus may have to sell the gold reserves which may be followed by the other euro nations to aid there financial imbalances exerted downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes showed that many policymakers were in favor of ending the bond buying programme earlier also acted as a negative factor. Apart from this ease in the Inflation data from major economies and decline in the Chinas GDP growth pushed the pr ices lower. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1,321.35/oz and closed at $1403.85/oz in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 8.4 percent in prior week and closed at Rs.25804/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs.25,270/10 gms in the last week. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 3.06 percent to 1,123.06 tonnes th as on 19 April 2013 from previous level of 1,158.56 tonnes as on th 12 April 2013.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1403.9 25850.0 Prev. day 0.9 0.2

as on 19 April, 2013 WoW -5.0 -10.1 MoM -12.7 -13.0 YoY -14.5 -9.2

1405.5

0.8

-8.5

-12.6

-14.8

$/oz

1395.3

0.2

2.6

-13.0

-15.0

Rs /10 gms

25804.0

0.4

-8.4

-13.0

-9.9

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.2 45820.0 Prev day -0.3 -0.4

as on 19 April, 2013 WoW -10.4 -12.5 MoM -19.2 -16.8 YoY -27.0 -19.3

Silver
Taking cues from decline in spot gold prices along with downside in the base metals pack, Spot silver prices fell by 10.4 percent in the previous week. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX added downside pressure. Additionally, unfavourable economic data from Europe, US and China acted as a negative factor for the prices. The white metal prices touched a weekly low of $22.04/oz and closed at $23.17/oz in last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 13.2 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs.42,924/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs.42,410/kg in the last week. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, decline by 0.4 percent to 10,451.01 tonnes as th th on 19 April 2013 from previous level of 10,497.59 tonnes as on 12 April 2013.

$/oz $/ oz

2366.0 2295.5

0.6 0.0

-13.6 -1.7

-18.6 -20.3

-24.8 -27.5

Rs / kg

42924.0

-0.8

-13.2

-20.7

-24.1

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop may support prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices. Technical Outlook valid for April 22, 2013
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg Support 1410/1405 25900/25800 23.10/22.85 42800/42300 Resistance 1424/1430 26150/26260 23.70/24.05 43900/44500

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 19 April, 2013 WoW -3.5 -1.6 -3.6 MoM -5.7 -7.0 -6.1 YoY -14.0 -14.7 -13.9

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 88.0 100.1 88.0

Nymex crude oil prices declined around 3.6 percent in the last week taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel. Additionally, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the crude oil prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched a low of $85.61/bbl in the last week and closed at $88.01/bbl in last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 4.7 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4749/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs.4664/bbl in the last week.

WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13)

Prev. day 0.2 1.5 0.3

$/bbl

99.7

0.5

-3.4

-7.4

-15.6

Rs/bbl

4749.0

0.3

-4.7

-6.7

-10.7
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.392 236.6 Prev. day -0.5 -0.1

as on 19 April, 2013

WoW 5.37 5.25

MoM 10.80 9.39

YoY 130.79 136.13

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices increased around 5.3 percent on the back of expectations of cool winter weather conditions. However, sharp rise in the prices was capped on account of rise in the US natural gas inventories coupled with strength in the DX. Gas prices touched a weekly high of 4.429/mmbtu and closed at $4.392/mmbtu in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained by 5.2 percent and closed at Rs.236.60/mmbtu on Friday after touching a high of Rs.238.20/mmbtu in the last week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, unexpected decline in the US crude oil inventories in last week will also support an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 22, 2013 Support 87.90/87.20 4730/4690 Resistance 90.00/90.90 4840/4890

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

The base metals pack traded on a negative note, apart from Copper in the last week on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors that the demand for base metals may go down as the IMF slashed the world GDP growth forecast added downside pressure. Additionally, weak economic data from US and Europe increased the worries over the economic growth pressurizing base metal prices. Apart from that, decline in Chinas GDP growth and unfavorable trade deficit data from the country acted as a negative factor for the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on the prices.

as on 19 April, 2013 WoW -6.2 MoM -11.2 YoY -13.3

Last 6967.5

Prev. day -1.5

$/tonne

Rs/kg

374.7

-1.8

-7.4

-10.6

-10.4

$/tonne

1882.0

-1.7

1.4

-3.4

-9.3

Rs /kg

100.6

-1.8

0.3

-3.9

-5.5

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack declined by 6.2 percent in the last week on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from major global economies also exert downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, rise in LME inventories by 3.4 percent along with cut in global economic growth forecast by IMF added downside pressure. The red metal a weekly low of $6800/tonne and closed at $6967.5/tonne in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices dropped by 7.4 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 374.7/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs.368.7/kg in the last week.

$/tonne

15177.0

-2.5

-4.3

-11.4

-13.9

Rs /kg

817.6

-2.6

-5.5

-12.0

-11.3

$/tonne

2017.5

0.0

-1.3

-8.1

-2.8

Rs /kg

108.2

0.1

-2.6

-8.7

0.2

$/tonne

1878.0

-0.5

0.4

-3.9

-6.1

Rs /kg

100.0

-0.6

-0.9

-5.0

-3.8

Copper Inventories
LME copper inventories gained around 3.4 percent in the last week th and stood at 614,350 tonnes as on 19 April, 2013 as against th 593,650 tonnes as on 12 April, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.0 percent and stood at 223,663 tonnes for the week th ending on 19 April, 2013. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note as the weak economic data from US, Europe and China has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for the base metals may decline. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth coupled with rise in LME inventories may keep the prices under pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments, weakness in DX along with expectation of favourable US existing home sales data may cushion sharp downside in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian rupee may add downside pressure on the prices. Technical Outlook valid for April 22, 2013
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 373/269 99.5/98.5 108/107 100.2/99.2 814/807 Resistance 379/383 101.5/102.5 110/111 102/103.8 830/838

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 19th April 614,350 5,186,075 172,296 1,110,650 259,850 18th April 612,350 5,194,575 168,426 1,116,550 259,775 Actual Change 2,000 -8,500 3,870 -5,900 75 (%) Change 0.3 -0.2 2.3 -0.5 0.0
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 22, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Existing Home Sales Country US Time (IST) 7:30pm Actual Forecast 5.02M Previous 4.98M Impact High

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