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International Commodities Content Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today Research Team

International Commodities

Content

Overview

Precious Metals

Energy

Base Metals

Important Events for today

Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130

Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136

Commodities Daily Report

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104 Tuesday| April 23, 2013 Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office:

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International Commodities Overview US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in the last month.

International Commodities

Overview

US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in the last month.International Commodities Overview China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April. European Consumer

China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April. PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April.

European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March.HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April. Asian markets are trading lower today on

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in China’s manufacturing data which indicates a slowdown in the global economic growth.

US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in March as against a rise of 4.95 million in February.

China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.1 points to 50.5-mark in April as against a rise of 51.6-level in March.

The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterday’s trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on an upbeat note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable existing home sales data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.735 and closed at 82.82 on Monday.

The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of domestic equities trading on an upbeat note along with expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on 3 rd May 2013.

Weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.24 and closed at 54.20 against dollar on Monday.

For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,628.80 crores ($302.06 million) as on 22 nd April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

inflows stood at Rs.57,251.10 crores ($10,612.10 million) till 22 nd April

2013.

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

April 2013. Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| April 23, 2013 Market Highlights (% change) as on 22

Market Highlights (% change)

as on 22 April, 2013

 

Last

Prev day

w-o-w

m-o-m

y-o-y

INR/$

54.2

-0.5

0.6

0.2

-3.9

(Spot)

$/Euro

1.3066

0.1

0.2

1.7

-1.2

(Spot)

Dollar

82.82

0.0

0.4

0.4

4.2

Index

NIFTY

5834.4

0.9

4.8

3.6

10.3

SENSEX

19169.8

0.8

4.4

2.6

4.8

DJIA

14567.2

0.1

-0.2

0.8

11.8

S&P

1562.5

0.5

0.7

0.4

12.6

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in borrowing cost for Italy and Spain supported an upside in the currency.

European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March from earlier fall of 24-mark in February. The Euro touched an intra- day high of 1.3093 and closed at 1.3066 against dollar on Monday.

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International Commodities Bullion Gold Spot gold prices increased by 1.5 percent in the yesterday’s trad

International Commodities

Bullion

Gold

Spot gold prices increased by 1.5 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop supported prices.

The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1438.6/oz and closed at $1425.1/oz in yesterday’s trading session.

In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.26363/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 265452/10 gms on Monday.

Silver

Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with weakness in DX, Spot silver prices rose by 0.9 percent in the yesterday’s trading session. Further, optimistic global market sentiments supported prices to trade on positive note. However, unfavourable economic data from US capped sharp gains in the prices.

The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $23.68 /oz and closed at $23.4/oz in yesterday’s trade.

On the domestic front, prices increased by 1.8 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 43687/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 44070/kg on Monday.

Outlook

In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavourable economic data from US and China may add downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of positive economic data from euro zone may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices.

Technical Outlook

valid for April 23, 2013

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

Spot

Gold

$/oz

1419/1409

1436/1445

MCX

Gold June’13

Rs/10 gms

26240/26050

26540/26720

Spot

Silver

$/oz

23.10/22.85

23.50/23.70

MCX

Silver

May’13

Rs/kg

43300/42900

44000/44400

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Tuesday| April 23, 2013 Market Highlights - Gold (% change) as on 22 April, 2013  

as on 22 April, 2013

 

Prev.

Gold

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Gold

(Spot)

$/oz

1425.1

1.5

5.4

-11.2

-13.2

Gold

(Spot -

Rs/10

26429.0

2.2

0.1

-10.6

-7.5

Mumbai)

gms

Gold

$/oz

1424.5

1.4

2.1

-10.9

-13.2

(LBMA-PM

 

Fix)

Comex Gold

$/oz

1421.0

2.1

4.4

-11.4

-13.4

(June’13)

 

MCX

Gold

Rs /10

26363.0

2.2

2.8

-10.9

-8.0

(June’13)

gms

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Source: Reuters

as on 22 April, 2013

Silver

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Silver

$/oz

23.4

0.9

3.5

-18.8

-26.1

(Spot)

Silver

Rs/1 kg

46120.0

0.7

-2.1

-15.6

-19.4

(Spot -

 

Mumbai)

Silver

$/oz

2360.0

-0.3

0.3

-17.7

-25.8

(LBMA)

 

Comex

$/ oz

2332.0

0.0

-1.3

-18.6

-23.6

Silver

(May’13)

 

MCX

Silver

Rs / kg

43687.0

1.8

-1.6

-19.4

-22.6

(May’13)

 

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Reuters

( May’ 13)   Technical Chart – Spot Gold Source: Reuters Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Source: Telequote

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International Commodities Energy Crude Oil Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.9 percent taking cues

International Commodities

Energy

Crude Oil

Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.9 percent taking cues from approval by the Group of 20 meetings members for Japan’s stimulus measures program which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel.

Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $89.13/bbl and closed at $88.76/bbl in yesterday’s trading session.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 1.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,834/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4,853/bbl on Monday.

API Inventories Forecast

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending on 19 th April 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.5 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 0.4 million barrels for the same week.

Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, decline in China’s manufacturing data indicated a slow economic growth in the world’s second largest crude consuming nation which will add downside pressure on the prices.

However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of expectations of favorable manufacturing data from the Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in the prices on the MCX.

Technical Outlook

valid for April 23, 2013

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

NYMEX Crude Oil

$/bbl

87.90/87.20

89.60/90.10

MCX Crude May’13

Rs/bbl

4780/4740

4870/4900

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

April 23, 2013 Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change) as on 22 April, 2013  

as on 22 April, 2013

 

Prev.

Crude Oil

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

WTI (Spot)

$/bbl

88.8

0.9

0.1

-6.1

-14.3

Brent

$/bbl

100.2

0.1

-0.2

-7.2

-15.4

(Spot)

 

Nymex

$/bbl

88.8

0.9

0.1

-6.4

-13.9

Crude

   

(May ’13)

 

ICE Brent

$/bbl

100.4

0.7

0.0

-7.2

-15.5

Crude

   

(May’13)

MCX

Crude

Rs/bbl

4834.0

1.8

-0.2

-6.3

-11.1

(May ’13)

   

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

(% change)

Source: Reuters

as on 22 April, 2013

Natural

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Gas

(NG)

Nymex

$/mmbtu

4.251

-3.2

3.25

7.98

114.59

NG

MCX

NG

Rs/

231

-2.4

1.81

8.04

125.15

(April

mmbtu

’13)

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Reuters

3) Technical Chart – NYMEX Crude Oil Source: Reuters Source: Telequote Technical Chart – NYMEX Natural

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Oil Source: Reuters Source: Telequote Technical Chart – NYMEX Natural Gas Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Source: Telequote

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International Commodities Base Metals The base metals pack traded on a mixed note on the

International Commodities

Base Metals

The base metals pack traded on a mixed note on the back of mixed LME inventories coupled with weakness in DX. Optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the prices. However, unfavourable existing home sales data from US kept prices under pressure.

In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported prices to trade on the positive note.

Copper

Copper, the leader of the base metal pack decreased by 0.6 percent on the back of weak economic data from US. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth kept prices under pressure.

However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX cushioned sharp downside in the prices. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.2 percent also prevented sharp fall in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6815/tonne and closed at $6926/tonne yesterday’s trading session.

On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note and closed at Rs. 375/kg on Monday after touching an intra-day high of Rs 375.8 kg. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported prices to trade in green.

Outlook

In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note as the weak economic data from US and China has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for the base metals may decline. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth coupled with rise in LME inventories may keep the prices under pressure. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX may add downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of positive economic data from Euro zone may prevent sharp decline in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushion sharp fall in the prices.

Technical Outlook

valid for April 23, 2013

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

MCX

Copper April’13

Rs /kg

371/367

378/381

MCX

Zinc April ’13

Rs /kg

99.5/98.5

101.3/102.1

MCX

Lead April ’13

Rs /kg

107/106

109/110

MCX

Aluminum April’13

Rs /kg

100.3/99.3

102.3/103.3

MCX

Nickel April ’13

Rs /kg

820/812

835/845

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)

April 23, 2013 Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) as on 22 April, 2013  

as on 22 April, 2013

 

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

 

MoM

YoY

LME

Copper (3

$/tonne

6926.0

-0.6

-4.9

-11.7

-15.3

month)

 

MCX

Copper

Rs/kg

375.0

0.1

-5.3

-10.1

-11.7

(April’13)

 

LME

Aluminum

$/tonne

1893.0

0.6

0.9

-2.0

-8.9

(3 month)

 

MCX

Aluminum

Rs /kg

101.4

0.7

0.2

-2.2

-5.1

(April’13)

 

LME

Nickel

$/tonne

15301.0

0.8

-2.7

-9.8

-14.4

(3 month)

 

MCX

Nickel

Rs /kg

827.2

1.2

-3.3

-10.1

-11.0

(April’13)

 

LME

Lead

$/tonne

2006.0

-0.6

-1.7

-8.2

-5.3

(3 month)

 

MCX

Lead

Rs /kg

108.1

0.0

-2.3

-8.2

-1.7

(April’13)

 

LME

Zinc

 

$/tonne

1880.3

0.1

0.5

-3.3

-7.1

(3 month)

 

MCX

Zinc

Rs /kg

100.3

0.4

-0.5

-3.9

-4.4

(April’13)

 

LME Inventories

 

Source: Reuters

 

Unit

22 nd April

19 th April

 

Actual

 

(%)

 

Change

Change

Copper

tonnes

 

613,075

614,350

 

-1,275

 

-0.2

Aluminum

tonnes

5,176,850

5,186,075

-9,225

-0.2

Nickel

tonnes

173,976

172,296

 

1,680

1.0

Zinc

tonnes

1,104,775

1,110,650

 

-5,875

 

-0.5

Lead

tonnes

259,850

259,850

 

0

0.0

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Reuters

259,850   0 0.0 Technical Chart – LME Copper Source: Reuters Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

International Commodities Important Events for Today Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| April 23, 2013 Indicator Country

International Commodities

Important Events for Today

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

for Today Commodities Daily Report Tuesday| April 23, 2013 Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast

Indicator

Country

Time (IST)

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Impact

MPC Member Tucker Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish HPI q/q CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales

UK

12:00am

-

-

-

Medium

China

7:15am

50.5

51.4

51.6

High

Europe

12:30pm

-

44.2

44.0

High

Europe

12:30pm

-

42.3

41.3

Medium

Europe

1:00pm

-

49.0

49.0

High

Europe

1:00pm

-

51.1

50.9

Medium

Europe

1:30pm

-

46.8

46.8

Medium

Europe

1:30pm

-

46.7

46.4

Medium

UK

2:00pm

-

13.9B

4.4B

Medium

Europe

Tentative

-

-

-2.2%

Medium

UK

3:30pm

-

-14

-15

Medium

US

6:30pm

-

54.3

54.6

Medium

US

7:30pm

-

419K

411K

High

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