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Mahindra Lifespaces
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) (27.0) (46) (6)bps (27.7) 3QFY13 61 9 14.7 14 % chg (qoq) 66.3 89.9 2.1 bps 71.2
`378 `446
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Real Estate 1,544 820 0.9 452/284 4,132 10 19,170 5,834 MAHLIFE.BO MLIFE@IN
Mahindra Lifespaces Developers (MLIFE) reported a weak set of numbers for 4QFY2013, mainly due to delay in execution in Aura and Splendor Ph-II projects. MLIFE reported standalone revenues of `102cr in 4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 27% yoy against consensus estimate of `120cr. The standalone EBITDA decreased by 46.1% yoy to `17cr in 4QFY2013, owing to lower-than-expected revenue recognition. The companys PAT reported a decline of 27.7% yoy to `23cr. On a consolidated level, MLIFE reported a revenue of `362cr and PAT of `82cr in 4QFY2013, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at the net level. We recommend Buy rating on the stock. Sales remain subdued, expect strong pick up in following quarters: MLIFE launched its second phase of project Ashvita (Hyderabad) and Aqualily C (Chennai) during the quarter. Further, the company sold 0.38mn sqft (new sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of `151cr, implying a realization of ~`3,974/sqft and sold 91 acres in its Chennai MWC and Jaipur MWC. Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers along with improving realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up in approvals and new launches anticipated in the current financial year. Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversified geographic exposure in terms of ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects. We expect strong sales numbers over the coming quarters, following new project launches in Pune, Chennai and Mumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is currently trading at 1.1x and 1.0x on our FY2014E and FY2015E book value compared to its 3 year average of 1.3x. We value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and slightly adjust our NAV to `496/share, and apply a 10% discount to our SOTP value to arrive at a target price of `446, suggesting an 18% upside from the current levels. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock. Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 51.0 3.5 29.1 16.4
3m (4.3) (6.7)
FY2012 701 14.6 119 10.1 27.3 29.2 13.0 1.3 10.3 10.5 2.7 9.9
FY2013E 738 5.3 141 18.7 32.8 34.6 10.9 1.2 10.9 11.7 2.9 9.0
FY2014E 888 20.3 159 12.2 30.6 38.8 9.7 1.1 11.2 11.6 2.5 8.0
FY2015E 1,002 12.8 177 11.8 30.6 43.4 8.7 1.0 11.4 12.2 2.2 7.1
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842
viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 102 102 62 61.1 6 6.3 16 15.8 85 17 16.8 1 0 14 29 28.6 6 20.5 23 22.7 23 5.7
4QFY12 140 140 90 64.4 6 4.0 12 8.8 108 32 22.7 2 1 16 45 32.4 13 29.1 32 22.9 32 7.9
% chg (yoy) (27.0) (27.0) (30.8) 14.6 30.7 (21.4) (46.1) (27.2) (28.4) (13.5) (35.6) (54.7) (27.7)
% chg (qoq) 66.3 66.3 69.5 (1.1) 78.5 62.3 89.9 (23.0) 11.6 5.3 46.1 (6.9) 71.2
FY2013 352 352 211 60.0 26 7.4 42 11.8 278 73 20.8 6 2 71 136 38.7 38 28.3 97 27.7 -
FY2012 469 469 292 62.3 21 4.5 35 7.4 348 121 25.8 3 3 52 168 35.7 47 28.3 120 25.6 120 29
% chg (yoy) (25.0) (25.0) (27.8) 24.0 19.3 (20.0) (39.6) 108.1 (34.0) 35.6 (18.9) (19.0) (18.9)
(27.7) (27.7)
14 3.3
71.2 71.2
97 24
(18.9) (18.9)
0.6
0.3 0.2
0.1
302 62
0.1
53
0.2
52
1,000 -
0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Area sold 4Q13 Residential Sales (LHS)
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
Growth %
EBITDA margin
4QFY13
3,974
50
0.1
Operational Performance
Exhibit 6: Ongoing projects evolution by city (mn Sqft)
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Chennai
Mumbai
Pune
NCR
Nagpur
Hyderabad
Mumbai
Hyderabad
Investment arguments
In the right markets
MLIFE is a mid-market and premium housing developer. The company caters to strong demand present in tier-1 cities and small metros, which are typically enduser driven, as opposed to investor-led demand in super metros National Capital Region (NCR) and Mumbai. MLIFE, with its focus on upper-middle & middle class housing along with affordable housing, should see strong pent-up demand over the next few quarters, especially in light of the fact that housing loan growth has been lagging total credit growth, which can see a possible reversion as rate cuts start to take place, which should get reflected in mortgage rates.
Change in estimates
Considering the new launches lined up and five projects hitting the revenue recognition threshold, we are revising our FY2014 estimates and introducing FY2015 estimates. We expect a revenue of `888cr and `1,002cr for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. EBITDAM has been revised to 30.6% and 30.6% for FY2014E and FY2015E respectively. Due to better-than-expected operating performance and increasing contribution from MLIFEs subsidiary at the net profit level, we are now estimating a PAT of `159cr (earlier `148cr) and `177cr for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.
Earlier estimates
888 237 26.6 148 36.3
Revised estimates
888 272 30.6 159 38.8
Earlier estimates
1,002 307 30.6 177 43.4
Revised estimates
1,002 307 30.6 177 43.4
Var. (%)
-
Exhibit 14: MLIFE: One Year Forward P/B and 3yr Avg.
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Sep-10
Sep-11
May-11
May-10
May-12
Sep-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-10
Mar-11
Mar-10
Nov-10
Nov-11
Mar-12
P/B (x)
Company Background
Mahindra LIFEspaces Developers, a 51% owned subsidiary of the Mahindra and Mahindra Group, is in the business of real estate development, with a focus on residential projects and integrated infrastructure development such as business cities, industrial parks and SEZs. MLIFE has till date developed ~7mn sqft of residential projects in cities like Mumbai, Pune, NCR, and Chennai and is expanding its presence to cities like Hyderabad, Nagpur and Nasik by increasing its focus on the premium and mid-market segments. The company has also announced its plans to enter the affordable housing segment in tier-2 cities. MLIFE is also present in the integrated development space, with two operational projects through its subsidiaries MWC Jaipur and MWC Chennai. These are spread over an area of ~4,200 acres with presence of SEZs and DTAs.
Nov-12
Jan-13
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.14 1.2 11.4 0.18 1.1 14.9 0.16 0.9 8.6 0.4 2.1 7.5 0.36 1.9 6.6 0.32 1.6 6.1 0.4 731 85 255 831 0.5 550 88 242 641 0.5 517 97 288 615 0.4 662 71 414 704 0.4 693 41 416 695 0.5 675 42 443 669 7.4 8.2 7.9 10.6 12.0 10.2 10.5 11.8 10.3 11.7 12.6 10.9 11.6 12.4 11.2 12.2 13.1 11.4 25.4 0.7 0.3 5.6 0.0 0.1 11.1 27.5 0.7 0.4 7.9 0.0 0.2 15.7 26.0 0.7 0.5 8.1 0.0 0.2 16.2 31.6 0.7 0.4 8.3 0.0 0.3 16.7 29.7 0.7 0.4 8.2 0.0 0.4 16.3 29.8 0.7 0.4 8.6 0.0 0.3 17.3 19.2 19.2 20.8 (3.2) 242.3 26.5 26.5 28.5 (4.7) 260.8 29.2 29.2 31.4 (5.8) 282.8 34.6 34.6 36.8 (7.2) 316.7 38.8 38.8 40.8 (8.1) 347.4 43.4 43.4 45.4 (9.1) 381.7 19.7 18.1 1.6 (0.9) 4.4 16.2 1.2 14.3 13.3 1.4 (1.2) 3.0 10.3 1.1 13.0 12.0 1.3 (1.5) 2.7 9.9 1.1 10.9 10.3 1.2 (1.9) 2.9 9.0 1.0 9.7 9.3 1.1 (2.2) 2.5 8.0 0.9 8.7 8.3 1.0 (2.4) 2.2 7.1 0.9 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Mahindra Lifeapaces No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11