A

Land War in Asia:

Military Balance Analysis of The Russian Federation and The Peoples Republic of China
Stephen A. Taft
s December 10, 2012


The next war on land will be very different from the last one, in that we shall have to fight it in a different way. In reaching a decision on that matter, we must first be clear about certain rules of war. Rule 1, on page I of the book of war, is: "Do not march on Moscow". Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good. That is the first rule. I do not know whether your Lordships will know Rule 2 of war. It is: "Do not go fighting with your land armies in China". It is a vast country, with no clearly defined objectives, and an army fighting there would be engulfed by what is known as the Ming Bing, the people's insurgents.1

In 1962, General Bernard Montgomery advised the House of Lords that rules one and two of war were do not march on Moscow and do not go fighting with your land armies in China.2 Today, Russia and China would do as well as any to heed Montgomerys words. In the twenty-first century, Russia and China remain the two largest and most formidable land powers in Asia and invading them is an even dimmer prospect than in Montgomerys time. The Russian Federations nuclear deterrent is larger and deadlier than was the Soviet Unions when Montgomery addressed Parliament, while the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) produces seventy times the wealth each year as when Mao Zedong experimented with half mankind3. Russia and China are partners in autocracy and mistrust of the West, just as they are partners in the armaments and energy trade. Yet fissures are finally emerging in Sino-Russian relations; fissures which could provoke a decisive and even destructive rift between the two Eurasian powers. A war between Russia and China remains a remote possibility, but not so remote as to not merit a preemptive analysis of why and how it might occur. Russia is more likely to be the instigator and the victor of such a conflict. Vladimir Putins Russia might be a shadow of the giant that was the USSR, but it has a ballistic and technological edge that rest on the shoulders of that giant. For the moment, Chinas miraculous rise has not yet equipped it for a wrestle with the Russian bear. However, China might survive the political fallout of this confrontation more successfully than Russia, for the men in the Kremlin would have banked their waning political capital upon an adventure on the steppes of Asia. It would not be the first time that such an adventure proved their downfall.

General Bernard Montgomery, quoted in HANSARD 18032005 , THE ARMY ESTIMATES HL Deb 30 May 1962 vol 241 cc189-257 http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1962/may/30/the-army- estimates#S5LV0241P0-00791 2 Ibid. 3 Phrase attributable to Paul Johnson, Chapter 16 title of Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Eighties, (New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 1983)

The political rationale for a war between the Russian Federation and the Peoples Republic of China would rest upon an unraveling of what is certainly among the most important and yet enigmatic relationships between any two nations on the globe. Russia and China are in the midst of reversing the roles of greater and lesser power that they have traditionally held for centuries and this change is much of what may drive the two towards confrontation. Until the 1990s, Russia had for centuries been undisputedly more influential and powerful than China. Tsarist Russia repeatedly defeated Imperial Chinese forces, imposing unequal treaties and seizing over much of Manchuria and Xinjiang for direct or indirect colonial exploitation. As early twentieth century China crumbled into civil war and foreign invasion, an even more powerful Russia rose from the strife of Communist revolution. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) rose to become a global superpower with the largest military the world had ever seen. In 1949, Mao Zedongs Peoples Republic of China joined the Communist umbrella of the USSR as little more than a vassal state of its northern neighbor, dependent on Russia for military equipment, nuclear deterrence, economic aid, and perhaps even its inception in the first place. Although relations soured in the 1960s, culminating in the Sino-Soviet split and eventual rapprochement between China and the United States, the USSR remained the dominant power in Asia and an existential threat to all that Mao Zedong and his Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had built. Yet in the 1980s the power relationship between Russia and China began to change dramatically. The Soviet Union buckled under the weight of its failing Communist enterprise, eventually setting loose its empire and dismantling the Communist system and power structure. By 1991, the Soviet Union was once again simply Russia, a bankrupt, disordered, and definitively declining shadow of its former self. The political system careened through various shades of autocracy and disorder, finally settling into an oligarchic presidential dictatorship whose power players traded oil concessions for political favors. The nuclear arsenal contracted to a shell of its Cold War high. The military became a corrupt, embittered, ill-disciplined, underfunded, and poorly equipped mass of conscripts and nostalgic Red Army officers. Russias global influence receded far behind the Iron Curtain, as liberal democracy and American hegemony encircled Russia from Bergen to Sakhalin. As Russia spiraled into decline, China skyrocketed to meteoric success. Economic liberalization powered the Chinese economy to dozens of times its former size by the 1990s, creating an immense export-driven manufacturing
2

economy upon which Western service economies increasingly relied for cheap outsourced labor and capital. With great wealth came greater technology, education, political influence, and military power. The Peoples Liberation Army became a smaller (relatively), but more professional and better equipped force than it had been during the Cold War. Chinas nuclear arsenal began to grow into a respectable deterrent force. Between the early 1980s and late 1990s, the alteration in Russia and Chinas relative positions could not have been more dramatic.4 At the same time as Russia and China switched places politically, their relations began to thaw and eventually improve into what many observers saw as a peacetime alliance. Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev was present in Beijing during the infamous Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 trying to heal the Sino-Soviet split. During the 1990s, Russia entered a large commercial relationship with China, selling the latter military technology, armaments, and energy resources. Russia and China jointly penetrated Central Asia economically and negotiated on the possibility of new oil pipelines. Russian and Chinese nuclear missiles targeting one another were supposedly de-targeted in the 1990s. The Shanghai Five was founded in 1996, an informal military alliance between Russia, China, and some of the former Soviet Socialist Republics of Central Asia. The treaty names were revealing: Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions (1996) and Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions (1997). In 2001, the alliance solidified into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.5 As this partnership went on, Russian and Chinese diplomats operated under a no first doctrine, maintaining a semblance of diplomatic equality. Russia and China backed each other in many diplomatic disputes with the West and respected each others frequent human rights violations. Symbolically, Russia and China have presented themselves to the world as counter-models to the liberal democracy of the United States. In the early 2000s, it would have seemed far-fetched to imagine any armed confrontation between these two bastions of sovereign democracy.6

Garnett, Sherman W., Rapprochement or Rivalry?: Russia-China Relations in a Changing Asia, (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2000), 3-400; 5 However, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not an alliance in the NATO sense. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, The SCO seems primarily to be primarily reflection of Chinese willingness to support what Beijing has called a healthy Central Asian order, free from any separatist, Islamist, or pro-Western forces that might act to destabilize China. See Central Asian Security Trends: Views from Europe and Russia, Ed. Stephen J. Blank, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 19, 2011), 12-13. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1063 (Accessed 12/1/2012). 6 Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, Ed. Robert E. Kanet, (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011), 3-221.

As the twenty-first century began to unfold, however, trends emerged in the Sino-Russian relationship that raised some serious questions about the partnerships long-term prospects. As a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) publication said of Russia, for the last 15 years, the national political and military elite have been agreed that there was no conventional military threat from China, because of improved relations. But that situation has been changing rapidly over the last several years.7 Under the firm, centralized leadership of Vladimir Putin, the Russian Federation revived definitively as a great power and began to assert itself more aggressively in its old backyard. Putin increased central control and efficiency in the bureaucracy and military. Putin resisted Western efforts to intervene against Muslim regimes in Iran, Libya, and finally Syria (where Russia retains a naval base). He expanded Russias leverage in the energy trade, occasionally bullying former satellites such as the Ukraine with the power of the pipeline. Putin concluded the Second Chechnyan War on more favorable terms than the previous one and invaded Georgia in 2008 to forestall NATO expansion in the Caucasus. In the 1990s, Russia had encouraged Chinese economic penetration of Central Asia so as to offset the West, but in the 2000s Russia resumed its own penetration in earnest, establishing a military base in Kyrgyzstan. In Central Asia and a number of other cases, Russian foreign policy now diverges from what China regards as its own best interests. Russia has assumed a more skeptical policy towards North Korea than China; the latter implicitly guarantees the safely of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime. Russias emerging policy of guaranteeing the safety of supposed Russian nationals in surrounding countries so as to create protectorates has unsettled China, which reacted negatively to the Georgian intervention. Russia has reached out to its old partner, India, so as to offset China and counter its patronage of Pakistan. Given that India borders China, has fought a war with it, and rivals Chinas population and economy, this move is deeply disturbing to Beijing. Russia has also reached out to Vietnam with arms and nuclear sales, eliciting some of the same Chinese concerns.8 Chinese immigration to the Russian Far East and Chinese economic penetration of the declining region is unsettling to Russian policy-makers,

7

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Stephen Blank, (The Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 22, 2011,), 462, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1087 (Accessed 12/1/2012) 8 Blank, Stephen. Russias Ever Friendlier Ties to VietnamAre They a Signal to China?, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 219, November 30, 2012, (1-2) http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_t tnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40184&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=c8a07ab49 45b212568d3b3341075ca7b (Accessed 11/30/2012)

who fear that their most valuable energy provinces will be swamped by migrants from the giant in the south.9 On the Chinese side, there are also developments which cast a pall over the Sino-Russian partnership. The most obvious is of course that China has finally usurped Russias traditional role as the greatest power in Asia. In 2011, Chinas $7 trillion economy became second only to that of the United States, grew at a rate of 11% per year, and became possessor of 10% of the American national debt.10 Chinas military budget was $120 billion in 2012, whereas it was only $30 billion in 2000.11 By contrast, Russias GDP is a mediocre $1.9 trillion per annum, smaller than the economies of many far smaller nations and is dependent more on the fluctuating price of oil than any fundamental strength or dynamism.12 Russias military budget is around $70 billion, significantly less than Chinas.13 When international observers speak of an emerging rival to the United States global hegemony, they invariably speak of China, not Russia. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, Chinas military-industrial complex has advanced and expanded exponentially. In the past twelve years, China has made phenomenal progress in shipping technology and significant progress in aerospace technology. The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) fields significant numbers of weapon systems, such as J-20 aircraft and Type-96 armor,

9 Strategic Asia 2011-2012: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers China and India, Ed. Ashley J. Tellis, Travis Tanner,
and Jessica Keough. (Washington DC, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2011), 227-259.
10

Google Public Data, Gross National Product in PPP Dollars, http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&idim=country:CHN &dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gdp+growth#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&scale _y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:CHN:USA:RUS&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false (Accessed 11/10/2012) 11 Lash, Iacopo, "Chinese Nuclear Strategy, No-First-Use, and US-Chinese Nuclear Stability, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/content/chinese-nuclear-strategy-no-first-use-and-us-chinese-nuclear-stability Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, September 24, 2012, (Accessed, 12/1/2012), 1. 12 Google Public Data, Gross National Product in PPP Dollars, http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&idim=country:CHN &dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gdp+growth#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&scale _y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:CHN:USA:RUS&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false (Accessed 11/10/2012); Diehl, Jackson, The Coming Collapse: Authoritarians in China and Russia Face an Endgame, World Affairs, Summer/October 2012 Issue, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/coming- collapse-authoritarians-china-and-russia-face-endgame (Accessed, 12/1/2012), 1-14.; Aslund, Anders, How Putin st is Turning Russia into One Big Enron, Issue 5018, The Moscow Times, November 21 , 2012, (1-2) http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/how-putin-is-turning-russia-into-one-big-enron/471734.html (Accessed 12/3/2012). 13 The Military Balance, (London, Taylor & Francis Group, 2012), 192

which are comparable to mainline Russian ones.14 That China has far greater manpower (Russias is in fact declining) and sheer numbers of weapon platforms such as armor is a menacing backdrop to Chinas increasing military technology.15 In 2012, a team of American researches discovered open source indications that Chinas Second Artillery has amassed a far larger arsenal of nuclear warheads than was previously supposed, something on the order of 1,800 missiles in reinforced underground silos and tunnels.16 Russia is now apprehensive about Chinas nuclear capabilities and backs Indias in response. In recent years, India has replaced China as Russias largest armaments client and this is no coincidence, but a deliberate choice on the part of Russia. Finally, Chinese importation of all but the most advanced Russian weapon systems are declining precipitously and this is partially because Russian arms dealers regard bolstering the PLA with increasing trepidation. Russia has imposed increasing restrictions on arms sales to China, while China has decreasing need for them in the first place. China is now an immense arms exporter in its own right. The PLA no longer needs to import many completed weapon systems from Russia, but only advanced individual components such as aircraft engines.17 Russia still maintains a clear technological edge on land, sea, and air, but China is closing the gap at an alarming rate. In sum, Russia now borders a nation with a vastly larger population, growth rate, and manufacturing base (not to mention a larger military whose technology is closing the gap). China is not only far closer to Russia than the US, but Chinese leaders face few less ethical and political constraints to implementing what they see as a secularized mandate of heaven to be the hegemonic power in Asia.18 In the Great Game of dominance over the Third World and its energy resources, Russia also has cause to rethink its relationship with China. Russia had hoped to become an indispensable provider of energy to China, which now imports half of its oil needs. Yet Russia

14

Barabanov, Mikhail, Vasiliy Kashin, and Konstantin Makienko, Shooting Star: Chinas Military Modernization in the 21st Century, (Minneapolis, East View Press, 2012), 1-200. 15 The Military Balance, 2012, 184-185 ; Strategic Asia 2011-2012: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers China and India, 227-259. 16 Arbatov, Aleksey, Viktor Yeltsin, Aleksandr Lukin, Vasiliy Mikheyev, and Aleksandr Khramchikhim, Prospects for Chinas Participation in Nuclear Arms Limitation, Trans. Aleksey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Sergey Oznobishchev, (Translated by the Asian Arms Control Project of the Georgetown University Department of Government, Washington DC. Originally published: Moscow, Russia: Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Threat Initiative Foundation, 2012), 28-39; Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, September 24, 2012, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/ (Accessed, 12/1/2012), 17 Barabanov, 1-200. 18 Barabanov, 1-200.

risks becoming more of an energy appendage to China than an energy influencer, because the Chinese market has failed to have the hoped-for transformative effect on Russias own economy and China is breaking out of reliance on Russian energy. Far East Russia continues to stagnate and Western Russia has not prospered after Communism to the degree that China has. Moreover, China is exploiting new markets in Central Asia and elsewhere in the Third World. In the arms market, China is also increasingly less reliant on and more competitive with Russia. China is more reliable and less sensitive to Western pressure than Russia is when it comes to selling arms to anti-Western Third World dictatorships. This gives China an emerging cadre of sympathetic despots in Africa and Asia, much as the Soviet Union once had. In Russia and Chinas most delicate borderland, Central Asia, China has pursued a devious course of action increasingly at the expense of Russia. Rather than station troops in Central Asia, China has taken the less threatening course of delivering hundreds of thousands of migrants works to develop the region and has solidified economic ties with many of the nations therein, who fear Russias renewed interest in dominating the region. Russian troops have gradually withdrawn from providing the entire security of the southern Central Asian states, leaving an uneasy power vacuum in some parts, even though Russian influence still pervades the region.19 These trends demonstrate the Russia now has more to fear from the status-quo than China. If Russia fears that economic and political domination by China (the reverse of the 1960s) is inevitable, then Russia will regard China not as a valuable partner, but a potential enemy.20 A potential enemy is very far, of course, from an actual enemy. To say that Russia and Chinas strategic partnership will soon unravel into outright competition is not to say that missiles will soon spring from their silos or that anyone will shortly be marching on Moscow (or Beijing). The Shanghai Cooperation Organization still exists on paper and in the occasional military exercise, even if Russian and Chinese policymakers are too realist to be bound by it and the alliance lacks the historic and cultural ties of NATO. Political events and pressures must align in such a way as to make the risk of war a viable option. In an age of nuclear deterrence,

19

Central Asian Security Trends: Views from Europe and Russia, Ed. Stephen J. Blank, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 19, 2011), 5-8. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1063 (Accessed 12/1/2012). 20 Russia and Its Near East Neighbors, Ed. Maria Raquel Freire and Robert E. Kanet, (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), 109-280; Strategic Asia 2011-2012: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers China and India, 227-259; Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Blank, Stephen J., (Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 22, 2011), http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1087 (Accessed 12/1/2012), 461-470.

Chinese and Russian policymakers would have forbidding strategic considerations to think through before they resorted to violence, regardless of the circumstances. Yet there is a political rationale brewing on the Russian side to take certain actions which could provoke war, if counterparts in Beijing responded threateningly. The most likely scenario which could lead to war between Russia and China would unfold in something like the following manner. The ruling clique of the Russian Federation comes under intense social pressure for reform, combined with an economic downturn, combined with China achieving an unacceptable degree of influence over Russia, its former sphere of influence, and the Russian Far East. Vladimir Putin or his successors see political collapse, diplomatic marginalization, or both staring them in the face. In desperation, the Russian leadership decides to boost its popularity at home and regain lost prestige in the Russian sphere of influence by engaging in a large-scale military adventure in Central Asiaexpecting China to back off rather than risk war. Perhaps using friendly Kazakhstan as a stepping stone, Russia might send large formations of troops south to the borders of China, Afghanistan, and Iran. Russia has long provided the military security of the Central Asian nations, withdrawing gradually through the 1990s and 2000s, but Russia retains a base in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as relatively compliant regimes in all but Uzbekistan. Russia could claim that it was restoring order and security, so as to protect supposed Russian nationals in Central Asia from Islamist terrorism, political instability, or even mistreatment by Chinese influences. Such excuses have served Russia well in the Baltic countries, Georgia, and Chechnya. Russia might also claim it was delivering a message to the West to leave Iran alone or delivering a message to a resurrected Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Any or all of these excuses might serve Russia as a cover (or complement) to its underlying purpose of triumphantly dismantling Chinese influence in Central Asia and restoring its own. A sufficient number of these underlying and stated rationales would merely have to coincide for Russia to have a powerful incentive to intervene in this manner in Central Asia.21 It is far more likely that Russia would initiate a Central Asian catalyst for war in this manner than that China would do so. Quite simply, time is on Chinas side, but not Russias side. China can expect tremendous economic growth and rising prestige for the foreseeable future, while Russia has no future to speak of. Russia is as powerful now verses China as it can expect

21

Strategic Asia 2011-2012: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers China and India, 227-259; Diehl, 1-14.

to ever be. Russias economic revival since the 1990s rests on little more than centralization and the energy trade. There has been no genuine renaissance to restore the lost dynamism and hope of Russias Silver Age before World War I. If Russia is to make a move with the power it still possesses, it must do so soon or fade. As for the Chinese, the eternal kingdom cannot help but feel itself to have all the time in the world with which to sit out the decline its old rival in the north. Time is ticking for Russia. If a Russian adventure on the steppes of Asia took place, there is always the distinct possibility that it would succeed or backfire without any clash with China. Russia would be banking on the notion that China would protest diplomatically (as would the rest of the international community), but that China (and the United States) would be unwilling to do anything about it militarily. In short, Russia would bet that China regarded the loss of its influence in Central Asia to be less damaging than outright war with Russia. Fears of Russias technological edge and nuclear arsenal, combined with confidence in the overall status-quo and future economic prospects would create a powerful rationale for China to not react. Indeed, the very likelihood of China backing off is crucial to the likelihood of Russia choosing to initiate the crisis in the first place. Like a devious poker player, Russia would bet heavily, confident that its opponent would not call its bluff. Yet, suppose this did not happen. Suppose by design or by sheer bad luck amid the fog of war (and genuine fog) of the Central Asian steppes, forces of the Russian Federation and the Peoples Republic of China came to blows. Perhaps Chinese leaders would choose to initiate a counter-bluff, sending troops cautiously across the border of Xinjiang to dare the Russians to turn back, lest they engage the worlds largest military force. Perhaps impetuous Russian or PLA commanders would go too far, responding to real or imagined threats out of the gloom of the Hindu Kush. War could erupt without warning, much as it did between the United States and Mexico in 1948, when rival troops ran into each other in a barren, disputed region of Texas. Assuming all of the above events have transpired, it is now time to consider what would occur if Russia and China really did find themselves at war. Few additional nations, if any, would choose to become belligerents on Russia or Chinas side in this conflict. The most likely candidates would not have much to commit to the fray, with the possible exception of Kazakhstan. This Central Asian country is Russian-leaning and we have already assumed that Kazakhstan would give free passage to Russian forces entering Central Asia. Kazakhstan would necessarily be a part of the conflict in some capacity, since
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Russian forces would have to pass through its territory. The most likely possibility is that Kazakhstan would be deemed complicit by China and drawn into the conflict on Russias side. Kazakhstan boasts a significant military force of ex-Soviet weaponry and its participation cannot be discounted. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are home to Russian military bases and would probably also be compelled to join the war on Russias side, but their forces would be negligible. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan would be most likely to put up some resistance to Russias aggression, joining with China by default, for Russian influence over them is rocky at best. Either way, opposing Central Asian insurgents and factions would tie down Russian forces considerably. Turning to other possible belligerents to the east, Mongolia is sandwiched between Russia and China, but is more dependent on Russias energy resources and political pressures.22 This is not to say that Russia would be able to persuade Mongolia to join the war on its side, but it could at least forestall the possibility of the Chinese entering Mongolian territory.23 India has an enigmatically non-aligned foreign policy at present, despite Russias courting of it, and there is little constant in Indian foreign policy other than implacable hostility towards Pakistan.24 North Korea is unpredictable at best and leans towards China, but joining a war against Russia would risk the survival of the regime in a game in which Kim Jung Eun has little skin. China is a tacit protector, but the DPRK is hardly known for its altruism and regards the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as revisionist sell-outs to Capitalism. As for Vietnam, Taiwan, and all the various countries ringing China which loosely align with the United States; these would be unlikely to risk their survival in a clash between Asias greatest powers. Finally, the United States and its NATO allies would undoubtedly wring their hands, unleashing a flood of diplomats, peace-keepers, observers, journalists, and sound bites to ameliorate the conflict (while quietly placing their forces on high alert). However, it is not in the Wests strategic doctrine to

22

Jargalsaikhany, Mendee, Mongolias Vulnerability to Russian Fuel Supply, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 9 Issue: 214, November 21, 2012, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_t tnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[pointer]=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40148&tx_ttnews[backPid ]=7&cHash=94cc421b075cf1b73a14008bf0585adb (Accessed, 12/1/2012) 23 Mongolias involvement in the war would have tremendous strategic consequences, since its vast airspace would open up and Russia and China would have a much longer border to fight over. The following scenario assumes Mongolian non-involvement. 24 Kumar, Vikas, India: the warped history and geography of Non-Alignment 2.0, East Asia Forum: Economics, Politics, and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific, November 29th, 2012, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/11/29/india-the-warped-history-and-geography-of-nonalignment-2-0/ (Accessed 12/1/2012)

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risk mutually assured destruction to save one great Eurasian autocracy from another. We can say with confidence that Russia and China would fight alone, except for a handful of Central Asian clients. If Russia and China found themselves at war (indeed found themselves would just about capture it), both countries could count on military capabilities unmatched by almost any other nations on the globe except for the United States. To merely skim the surface of this fact, the Russian military has a paper strength of roughly 300,000 ground forces, 2,800 battle tanks, 5,500 artillery pieces, 360 attack helicopters, 1,800 combat-capable aircraft, 66 nuclear bombers, and 1,500 nuclear warheads (1,428 are actively mounted on 492 ground or submarine missile launchers).25 The nuclear deterrent is supported by a sophisticated array of radar, missile defense, satellites, and communications units.26 Behind these is the assurance of 20 million reservists, with more to come in a crisis.27 The Russian Navy has an aircraft carrier, six cruisers, 18 destroyers, 12 strategic nuclear-capable submarines, 65 tactical submarines, and hundreds of other amphibious, supporting, and patrol craft.28 For its part, the Peoples Liberation Army fields 1,600,000 men with 7,400 battle tanks, 12,500 artillery pieces, 1,700 combat capable aircraft, 440 nuclear bombers, and 1,600-3,600 warheads (405 are actively mounted on ground or submarine missile launchers).29 The latter are supported by a handful of satellites and modest radar and detection capability, mostly covering the northern and western borders facing Russia.30 The Chinese Navy has only a partially operational aircraft carrier and three nuclear-capable submarines, but 68 tactical submarines, 13 destroyers, 65 frigates, and many hundreds of

25

The Military Balance 2012, 184-203; , Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces The Russian Nuclear Forces Project. http://www.russianforces.org/current/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012). 26 The Military Balance 2012, 184-203. 27 The Military Balance 2012, 184-203. 28 The Military Balance 2012, 184-203. 29 The Military Balance 2012, 211-242 ; Arbatov, 34, 63; The size and composition of the Chinese nuclear deterrent is far more secret than that of the Russian Federation and United States. Until recently, it was believed that China only possessed a modest arsenal of 240-300 nuclear warheads, as its official figures state. However, numerous observers outside the intelligence communities now see evidence that the PRC could have produced as many as 3,600 nuclear devices. A Russian study by Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Threat Initiative Foundation estimates 1,600-1,800, with 800-900 actively deployed. See for more details: Arbatov, Aleksey, Viktor Yeltsin, Aleksandr Lukin, Vasiliy Mikheyev, and Aleksandr Khramchikhim, Prospects for Chinas Participation in Nuclear Arms Limitation, Trans. Aleksey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Sergey Oznobishchev, (Translated by the Asian Arms Control Project of the Georgetown University Department of Government, Washington DC. Originally published: Moscow, Russia: Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Threat Initiative Foundation, 2012); Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012) 30 The Military Balance 2012, 211-242

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supporting craft.31 Official Chinese reserves only number half a million, but an almost unlimited reservoir of manpower stands behind them.32 In the case of China, it is important to note that Chinas military capabilities are improving all the times, whereas Russias remain relatively stable. If this conflict occurred even several years down the road, the statistics could swing more favorably to China. In any case, the firepower of these two militaries is almost unimaginable. A conclusive prediction of what they could do to each other and to human civilization if fully unleashed is difficult to contemplate. Nonetheless, numerous caveats, qualifications, and tactical considerations make the general parameters of a Sino-Russian war possible to discern. The likely parameters of a Sino-Russian War shall be defined before any predictions are made as to its outcome. A Sino-Russian War would very likely involve the early and decisive use of nuclear weapons, because both Russian and Chinese leaders would have powerful incentives to use themand use them swiftly. Nuclear weapons set a number of tight parameters on the conflict that allow us to exclude many assets on both sides and predict the course of the war more easily. Nuclear weapons have the potential to do one of several things. One side (more likely Russia) could win the nuclear exchange so completely that it suffered minimal damage. This would shorten the war, because the Chinese would have to sue for peace in short order. The conventional conflict would only last as long as the nuclear exchange and following negotiations went on. Another quite possible scenario could be that the Russian and Chinese arsenals were balanced enough that each would inflict an intolerably high amount of damage on each others homelands and armed forces. Both sides logistical and communications capabilities could be so damaged that both fighting and negotiations would drag on painfully and fitfully on for a long time. However, Russian and Chinese forces from far behind the front would have difficultly becoming involved in the fighting and could be effectively excluded from the equation. Once again, nuclear weapons would have imposed tight parameters on the conflict. This could be a particularly problem for Russia, as we will see. Finally, nuclear weapons could escalate to the point where the Russian and Chinese polities were completely destroyed. In this scenario, few assets at all, other than the nuclear weapons, would need to be considered. What all these most

31 32

The Military Balance 2012, 211-242 The Military Balance 2012, 211-242.

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likely scenarios have in common is that many aspects of the Russian and Chinese militaries would not be particularly relevant to determining the course of the conflict. The implications are that we need only weigh a limited number of military assets and factors in order to deduce how the war would unfold and who the likely winner would be. The economies of both countries may be effectively discounted, (except perhaps as targets) for they would have no time (or no logistical means) to lend their weight to the confrontation. Russian or Chinese military forces stationed distant from the confrontation zones which could not influence the fronts swiftly and aerially may be discounted. Thus, we may exclude the majority of Russian and Chinese ground forces, while still including the impact of distant intercontinental-ranged units such as ballistic submarines, aircraft, missile launchers, etc Those vessels of the Russian Black Sea, Baltic, and Northern fleets which lack intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability may be removed from the equation, while the Russian Pacific Fleet certainly should not be discounted. The PLA Navy could be assumed to hold a sizeable force in reserve to guard against Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Finally, since an early nuclear exchange is foreseen, the capabilities and likely impact of Russia and Chinas nuclear arsenals deserve the most scrutiny of all. These many factors and qualifications make predicting the course of a Sino-Russian War considerably easier than balancing every capability the two powers possess. Nuclear warfare is so untested and difficult that it is not hard to imagine any of the three likely scenarios outlined above occurring. The nuclear chips could fall ever so slightly differently than what the strategist predicts for nothing to be the same. Whether the Russians or Chinese managed to inflict equal or disproportional damage on each other depends as much on chance during the frantic, opening minutes of the conflict as it does on range, payload, and numbers. All this analysis can do is walk the reader through what seems to be the most likely scenario, while highlighting conditions which could lead to the others instead. On the whole, this author affirms that the most likely scenario of the nuclear conflict would be something lying between the first and second scenarios: that Russia felt confident enough to launch a first strike and managed to inflict disproportionate damage on the Chinese nuclear arsenal, logistics, and command-andcontrol systems, but that Chinas nuclear deterrent managed to retaliate with an unexpected number of hits of its owndragging the conflict out or making the war far more costly to Russia than its leaders might have expected. Russias arsenal has the clear edge, but that edge is not so
13

crisp and decisive as to insulate Russia from taking some serious, even intolerable, damage from the Chinese nuclear arsenal. The gatekeeper to all three scenarios is the justification for nuclear warfare taking place in the first place. There have been many theorists, before and during the Cold War, who are inclined to believe that a great power conflict could take place without significant use of nuclear weapons. When one belligerent is a Western, Liberal Democracy, perhaps this is feasible, but the two great Eurasian Autocracies would not likely operate with such restraint if they found themselves at war with each other. A Sino-Russian War would involve the early and decisive use of nuclear weapons, because Russian leaders would have doctrinal and strategic incentives to launch a nuclear strike against China as soon as word of hostilities made its way to them. Russian military doctrine regarding nuclear weapons is one of first use.33 This is in contrast to Chinas declared no first use policy and emphasis on minimum deterrence, which may or may not be genuine. Russian leaders emphasize nuclear weapons, because they rightly feel that their post-Soviet conventional defense is inadequate to defend the Motherland against a serious opponent, such as China. In this sense, Russian thinking is similar to that of NATO during much of the Cold War, for the roles have now reversed. Russian fears of a surprise invasion ever since Operation Barbarossa in 1941 also play a part in this thinking.34 Clearly, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), with its superior numbers and immense resources, would fit the definition of a serious opponent to be equalized with nuclear weapons. As soon as Moscow became aware that its forces were engaged in combat with the full might of the PLA, Russian leaders would desperately resort to their nuclear card, seeing it as the only way to even the odds against the overwhelming numbers and conventional firepower of the PLA. Russian leaders might also be skeptical that China would restrain itself from launching its own first strike, given that China is the weaker nuclear power. There are many reasons to doubt Chinas no first use policy and mere uncertainty on this matter provides the Russians with an incentive to not take any chances.

33

As the most recent Russian Military Doctrine of 2010 states, nuclear weapons remain the primary instrument for deterrence against both nuclear and conventional attacks upon Russia and in defense of Russian interests, territorial integrity, and sovereignty. The doctrine does not explicitly state that Russia will use nuclear weapons in a preemptive attack against such threats, as had been discussed by senior members of the Security Council in the fall of 2009, but leaves the decision to use such weapons in the hands of the President of the Russian Federation. (See Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Stephen Blank, (The Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 22, 2011,), 468,) http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1087 (Accessed 12/1/2012). 34 Cimbala, Stephen J., and Peter Jacob Rainow, Russia and Postmodern Deterrence: Military Powers and Its Challenges for Security, (Washington DC: Potomac Books Inc., 2007), 23-71.

14

As the initiators of the crisis leading to the confrontation, the Russians would have greater flexibility to act on their strategic doctrine launch a first strike.35 Therefore, we can reasonably assume a few key points: that one or more of the belligerents would escalate swiftly to nuclear warfare and that Russia would have the most incentive to do so. 36 The other, even more powerful incentive for Russia to strike first against China is the tactical situation between the two countries nuclear arsenals. There is a large tactical and technological imbalance between the Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals. The superiority of the Russian arsenal is based on a combination of technology, numbers, experience, and the sheer vulnerability of the Chinese arsenal. The Russian Federation possesses 1,092 ground-launched warheads, 336 submarine-launched warheads, and 76 nuclear bombers.37 China has 360 operational ground-launched warheads, 36 submarine-launched warheads, and 440 nuclear bombers.38 Russias numerical advantage in warheads is dependent, not on number of ballistic missiles, but on the Multiple Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, with which China has only lately begun experimenting.39 MIRV technology allows Russia to unleash many time the destructive firepower from the very first round of missiles that it has launched, a timing factor which can be decisive for the first striker. Moreover, MIRV warheads disengage automatically from their mother missile as it prepares to reenter the atmosphere, making them far more difficult to intercept with missile defenses than single missiles. Chinas modest detection and anti-missile capabilities cannot cope with an attack of this magnitude. Worse still for China, a large portion of these thousands of Russian missiles possess the range to target anywhere in or around China,

35

Chang, Andrei, Chinas Nuclear Deterrence Policies, Kanwa Asian Defense Review Online, (December 5, 2012, Open Source Center), 34-35. https://www.opensource.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_200_0_43/content/Display/PRINCE/CPP20 120524787031?printerFriendly=true (Accessed 12/10/2012) 36 CImbala, 3-120; 37 Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces The Russian Nuclear Forces Project. http://www.russianforces.org/current/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012); The Military Balance 2012, 184-203. In 2008, Russia had in excess of 14,000 weapons, including 3,113 strategic warheads and 2,079 nonstrategic warheads deployed and another 8,000 in storage or waiting to be dismantled as of 2008. However, the recent nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States has reduced these even further from Cold War highs. (See Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Stephen Blank, (The Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 22, 2011,), 462, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1087 (Accessed 12/1/2012). 38 The Military Balance 2012, 211-242; Yesin, Victor, Third After the United States and Russia: On Chinas Nuclear Potential without Underestimation or Exaggeration (Translated by the Georgetown University Asian Arms Control nd Project, Originally published by the Military-Industrial Courier, May 2 , 2012 ), 4-7. http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/content/russian-article-chinese-nuclear-potential (Accessed, 12/3/2012) 39 Yesin, 4.

15

assuming they are stationed on Russian soil or in Russian waters. It must be recalled that Russias arsenal is primarily designed to target the state-of-the-art defenses and well-protected silos of the United States. Analysts in 2008 estimated that a Russian arsenal of roughly 1,700 missiles and aerial bombs could destroy 60-80% of the American nuclear arsenal on a first strike.40 Russias nuclear bombs tend to be large and deadly, capable of penetrating the United States formidable Minuteman underground silos. The PRC, for reasons that shall shortly be explained, can hardly boast the United States defensive capabilities. Finally, Russia has had decades of Cold War experience in perfecting the command-and-control, targeting, and every other conceivable factor of nuclear warfare. A successful first strike depends on these qualities as much as sheer numbers. The Russian nuclear arsenal is a superpowers weapon, made to fight superpowers. Whereas China is a novice, Russia is an old hand in the dark arts of nuclear warfare and this would provide Russia with a considerable incentive to go nuclear as soon as possible.41 In many respects, the Chinese arsenal gives the appearance of having severe vulnerabilities to a Russian first strike, making itself a tempting target in a Sino-Russian War. Chinas nuclear deterrent is certainly larger and stronger than, until recently, it was believed to be. As a report by the respected (Retired) Russian General Victor Yesin, reveals, Chinas Second Artillery may have as many as 3,600 nuclear warheads (800-900 operational ones) based in 3,000-5,000 km network of tunnels known as the Underground Great Wall.42 Many missiles, such as the Dongfeng 31s, can reach all of Russia. However, the manner in which these warheads are deployed is far more important than their total number when faced with a first strike by as large and advanced a nuclear power as Russia. The basic structure and protocol of the tunnel facilities are so widely known in China that a team of American undergraduate researches could discover an impressive amount of information about them from open sources.43 While vast, few of the facilities, can properly be called silos, for the missiles within them do not launch from their storage location. Instead the missiles emerge out of their tunnels onto trucks or railway cars

40

Cimbala, 75-82; While Russias arsenal now numbers closer to 1,500 and lingers on the brink of survivability against the United States, the situation vis--vis China is clearly quite different. 41 Cimbala, 3-120. 42 Yesin, 2-3. 43 The research team was part of the Georgetown University Department of Governments Asian Arms Control Project, which received a great deal of publicity for its revelations about the Chinese nuclear arsenal and Russian studies of the Same. For more information, see Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012)

16

and are driven to nearby outdoor locations for launch. As Professor Karber, director of the Asian Arms Control Project, explained in lecture at Georgetown University, the best launchers often fire from railway cars which stop on open-air gaps between the tunnels. However, this is not necessarily a substitute for firing from sealed silo doors, for the entire outside environment of the railway lines could potentially be rendered so irradiated that going outside the tunnels could prove lethal for the railway crews, assuming the tracks were even still intact. Besides, many of the Second Artillery launchers are deployed on trucks, not railway cars, for firing. Most of these vehicular launchers cannot even operate off-road, so they must follow predictable routes to predicable launch sites, wasting valuable time in the process. Finally, the upcoming Figure 1 shows that there are relatively few Chinese missile launchers actually deployed to strike Russia (roughly 140). Given their lack of MIRV capability, each has little more than a single shot in the event of an incoming first strike. This not only limits Chinese targets in Russia, but limits Russian targets in China. In conclusion, the Chinese Second Artillery seems distinctly vulnerable to a first strike by Russia, despite its imposing facilities. The readiness of much of the Second Artillery is also in question, especially given that so many of the missiles have to be moved in order to be fired and lack MIRV capability. One has to question the readiness of a 3,000 warhead-strong arsenal which can barely muster 360 groundbased operational warheads. Retired General Viktor Yesin states that some of the Dongfeng 31, 31A ICBMs are ready for immediate use with the sanction of the leadership of the country. Given the pragmatic people the Chinese are known to be, it can be assumed that the alert missiles are on rail-based launchers.44 General Yesins study takes the Chinese nuclear arsenal very seriously, but this language says as much by what it does not say as by what it says. Apparently only some of Chinas launchers are ever on full alert and these seem to be particularly their longer range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). What of the other thousands of missiles stored in the tunnels? In the event of a first strike, presumably only missiles on full alert would have a chance of actually preempting incoming Russian missiles before the outside environment was rendered lethal. Yesin has unknowingly hinted at the dubious readiness of the Second Artillery to withstand a first strike. According to a study by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Early Warning System (EWS) is in a similar state of non-readiness. The report explains that:

44

Yesin, 7.

17

as long as Chinas strategic nuclear forces (SNFs) are in the shape that they are perceived to be in abroad, like its early warning systems (EWSs), they are too vulnerable and insufficiently effective to ensure the possibility of retaliatory operations following a hypothetical disarming attack by the US or Russia. Moreover, Chinas SNFs do not have the ability to mount a retaliatory counterstrike based on EWS information concerning an instance of military attack.45 In other words, the Chinese Second Artillery might even not know what hit them, in the event of a Russian first strike and struggle to coordinate a response. Chinas readiness, warning

45

Arbatov, 65.

Figure 1

18

systems, and the ability to coordinate a second strike seem questionable. The deployment of the Chinese arsenal also projects a less formidable threat to Russia than the paper strength of the Second Artillery might suggest. As Figure 1 shows, assuming that only Chinese missiles which were launched on the first round are in play, a mere 72 Chinese strategic missile launchers could threaten targets throughout Eastern Russia and Central Asia, while roughly another 78 launchers could target as far as Western Russia itself. This means that Russian commanders would only really need to target around 150 launchers--with theoretically about ten times as many warheads at their disposal.46 In other words, Chinas possible 3,000 warheads is a misleadingly large figure for the numbers of missiles which would actually be in play. The overall picture emerging is of a Chinese arsenal far from ready to withstand attack by a first-rate nuclear power. Let us picture even a fraction of the enormous and precised Russian arsenal launched preemptively against the Second Artillery. Let us picture the crews of Chinese missile launchers frantically driving out of their tunnels to their makeshift launching locations as hundreds of deadly warheads glide inexorably towards them for a mere ten to fifteen minutes.47 The results seem dire for China: the Chinese Second Artillery annihilated or rendered impotent in less than an hourits endless underground missile tunnels either destroyed outright or trapped under a ravaged and irradiated landscape, their missiles powerless in either case. Presumably the thousands of additional Chinese warheads would be trapped in their storage facilities or on railway carts buried by tons of collapsed concrete and masonry. At the very least, the Second Artillery seems a ripe target for Russian attack.48 However, while vulnerable overall, the Chinese arsenal may no longer be so vulnerable that Russia could take it out of the war without suffering some egregious losses. The Second Artillery may well be entering a grey area of survivability, in which it could not exactly survive, but could fire off sufficient missiles to cripple Russias political will and logistical capabilities. The following assessment should not be taken to disqualify the past arguments as to Chinas overall nuclear vulnerability. There are merely a few qualifications which make those

46

O Connor, Sean, PLA Ballistic Missiles Technical Report APA-TR-2010-0802, Air Power Australia: Australias Independent Defense Think Tank, http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-Ballistic-Missiles.html#mozTocId827329 (Accessed 11/20/2012) 47 It takes only 30 minutes for Russian missiles to strike the United States. 48 Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012); OConnor, Sean. PLA Ballistic Missiles: Technical Report APA-TR-2010-0802, August 2010, Air Power Australia: Australias Independent Defense Think Tank http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-Ballistic-Missiles.html#mozTocId925102 (Accessed 12/1/2012)

19

arguments less absolute and fail-safe than they might seem. One expert, Professor Karber of Georgetown University, estimates that the Second Artillery could count on shooting off around thirty missiles before the Russian assault had crippled its capabilities beyond repair.49 A number of factors justify such reasoning. First of all, the Chinese have mastered the art of deception when it comes to their tunnel openings and launch facilities. Numerous confirmed fake silos exist, confounding the potential Russian strategist and compelling him to launch precision strikes on far more than simply the genuine Chinese launcher bases.50 It should be remembered that Russia would need to hold much of its 1,400 odd missiles in reserve for continued deterrence against NATO and the United States. A less than ten to one ratio of missile to missile facility might be insufficient when many of the missile facilities are not even genuine. A second caveat for Russia would be the tremendous challenge of tracking all the Chinese launch vehicles in real time using satellite coverage, when there are millions of square miles to cover and China has demonstrated an effective anti-satellite capability. Russian intelligence would have to have identified all the pre-survey launch sites and be keeping continuous watch on the roads and tunnel openings. The Chinese Second Artillery may be primitive compared to Russias capabilities, but its launchers and facilities are everywhere. Secondly, the Russian deployment strategy suffers from drawbacks in the same way that the Chinese do, although the problem is not so much lack of range as excessive range. In the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty of 1983, Russia and the United States eliminated their intermediate-range nuclear missiles, relying henceforth on their long-range ICBMs. Intercontinental missiles have considerable minimum ranges as well as maximum ranges. The impressively high orbit needed to ensure passage to the other side of the planet precludes returning to the atmosphere before several thousand miles have been travelled. For instance, even the most advanced Russian ICBM, the Topol M SS-27, has a minimum range of 2,000

49

Professor Karber, Interview by Phone, Friday December 7, 2012, Georgetown University. Professor Karber is the director of the Georgetown University Department of Government Asian Arms Control Project. A former Defense strategist, he is an expert on Chinese nuclear capabilities. 50 Pinkov, Andrei, PLA Second Artillery Force Establishes 4th DF31A, Kanwa Asian Defense Review Online (December 5, 2012, Open Source Center), 22-23. https://www.opensource.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_200_0_43/content/Display/PRINCE/CPP20 120531787012?printerFriendly=true (Accessed 12/10/2012).

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km.51 Given that the majority of Russian missiles are spread along the trajectory of the transSiberian railroad, this sort of minimum range precludes the use (or at least accuracy) of many Russian long-range missiles when targeting locations in China. The effective ratio of Russian missile hits to Chinese launcher must therefore be reduced still further. There is the possibility of more than a handful of Chinese warheads surviving (even preempting) a Russian first strike and scoring destructive hits. These qualifications to the argument earlier should not be construed as dismissing the overall Russian advantage, but merely to point out that the Russian advantage is not fool-proof. The Chinese Second Artillery would have a good chance of scoring some hits, with a significant impact on the conflict. Given that an advantage in nuclear warfare must be overwhelminga better than 99% success rateto fulfill sane governments policy objectives, the Chinese could lose mightily and still ruin the Russians day. Discussion of the nuclear component of this scenario is not complete without the nuclear air assets of the two sides. As stated before, China has around 440 nuclear bombers (mostly Hong-6 and Qing-5) against Russias 76. This disparity in numbers would seem to shift the entire nuclear balance sheet in favor of China. However, there are sound reasons to place the nuclear bombers of both sides more on the tactical or even conventional side of war than the strategic side, as well as to discount the Chinese advantage. The Hong-6 nuclear bomber is almost obsolete, having been first deployed in 1965, and lacks any stealth or supersonic capabilities. Given that this is Chinas only long-range nuclear bomber (3,100 km), the Hong-6s failings do not bode well for Chinas ability to hit strategic targets which its bomber wing and the obsolete aircraft has very poor qualities for penetrating air defenses.52 While Russian bombers carry four nuclear bombs, the Hong-6 carries only one. Nonetheless, improvements are underway for the Hong-6s and, as with all of Chinas military assets, vulnerability may only be temporary.53 The Qing 5 is a more modern Chinese bomber, but has a range of only 2,000 miles. There are 300 Qing 5s and so these would be a major feature of the conflict, but they cannot serve much of a strategic role against a country the size of Russia. This is not to discount, by any means, the impact of the Chinese nuclear bomber fleet on the conventional battlefield or nearby strategic

51

SS-27 Stalin Topol-M RS-12 M2 RT-2PM2 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Army Recognition.com, http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_missile_system_vehicle_uk/topol-m_ss-27_rt-2pm2_stalin_rs- 12m2_intercontinental_ballistic_missile_technical_data_sheet_uk.html (Accessed 12/10/2012) 52 Chinas Nuclear Deterrent, Global Access China Limited, Beijing AustralAsia Commercial Consulting Centre, http://www.gac-china.com/China_Insight/China_Facts/China_Nuclear/china_nuclear.html (Accessed, 12/1/2012) 53 Yesin, 8.

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targets. That impact will be explored in detail. However, the Chinese bomber advantage seems to affect the war on a short-range, conventional level and cannot be regarded as an effective counter to the Russian nuclear deterrent.54 Chinas deterrent has one nuclear card which could truly upset Moscows rosy picture. This is Chinas 094 Jin-Class nuclear submarines. There are at least four and each carries a payload of 12 Tszyulyan-1 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) with a range of 8,000 km.55 These 48+ missiles could reach almost anywhere in Russia from their likely deployment zone in the South China Sea. For obvious reasons, these submarines are not nearly as vulnerable as the Second Artillery to a Russian first strike. Chinese planners are well aware of this and so SLBMs are one of the primary nuclear assets which the PRC is working to develop. Do these submarines throw a monkey wrench into any Russian first strike? Russian observers seem not to think so. The Russian Academy of Sciences study bore the submarines in mind when it expressed confidence that China could not withstand a first strike.56 Perhaps Russian Intelligence has the Jin Class vessels closely monitored and could pinpoint them without much difficulty during a conflict. Professor Phillip Karber, director of the Asian Arms Control Project, stated on November 27th, 2012 that the US Navy has the Chinese nuclear submarine fleet under such relentless surveillance from patrol craft, that the submarines rarely, if ever, leave their home ports in Hainan.57 The Russians cannot but benefit from this American harassment. Moreover, some Western observers believe that the Jin-Class incorporates a great deal of Russia technology. If so, the Russians would be as well aware as any of how to counter these weapons and their own twenty submarines in the Pacific Ocean could do the job. Nonetheless, the Chinese submersible nuclear deterrent should be regarded as one of those qualifications to the Russian advantage, an area in which the Chinese would have wiggle room to score retaliatory hits. 58 As we conclude the nuclear discussion, the likely outcome appears thus: even as the very first conventional clashes occurred on the frontiers, Russia would find itself with the enviable advantage of being the only belligerent with any nuclear weapons to speak ofyet multiple

54 55

Ibid., Purser, Benjamin S., and Michael S. Chase, Waypoint or Destination? The Jin-Class Submarine and Chinas Quest for Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrence, China Brief, Vol.12 Issue.15, (August 3, 2012), (1-3) http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39729&cHash=26be3d83024416e0 dbd1eba64c05e4a0 (Accessed, 11/20/2012) 56 Arbatov, 65 57 th Stated in lecture during Conflict in Asia, November 27 , 2012. 58

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Russian cities and key installations might have been wiped off the face of the earth. Russia would find itself in a difficult situation. The cost on the home front would already have outweighed any real benefits of the war. Should it retaliate against the Chinese hits and cherry pick a few cities for destruction? Russian leaders interests (not to mention humanity) would dictate restraining hemselves from excessive city busting, if they wished to win the peace and survive the backlash of world opinion. A dead and irradiated China would be a far less healthy and convenient neighbor than a (mostly) live and chastened one. For obvious reasons, Chinese leaders would probably be exceedingly eager to sue for peace on Russian terms, as soon as they realized that their nuclear umbrella was destroyed and at least a few Chinese cities had suffered retaliatory destruction. The nuclear exchange would thus seem to necessitate a short war and negotiations ensuing only hours into the very first conventional clashes. It would seem that there is little need to consider any conventional confrontation forces in a nuclear-dominated conflict of a few short hours. Surely a few hours of conventional warfare in Central Asia and along the Ussuri River would seem like tragic footnotes to the awful drama of the Second Artillerys demise? However, it is reasonable to consider these conventional clashes for a few reasons. First of all, peace negotiations might drag on for days, not hours. They could even fail initially, in which case fighting would continue on a conventional level for a few weeks until negotiations resumed. There is a good chance that the Russian nuclear strike could disrupt the Chinese chain of command to such an extent that high-level negotiations for peace proved impossible for some time. The Russians and Chinese could have scored extensive hits on each others logistics and lines of communication. This could entail that both sides were struggling to even control and move around their own forces, let alone communicate via red telephone with the enemy capital. Alternatively, Russian leaders might cease their strategic nuclear barrage, but still want to fight on a conventional level for some time just to see what further policy goals they could achieve (perhaps throwing the occasional tactical nuke into the mix). The destruction of much of Chinas conventional military might be a tempting prospect for the future balance of power. If this were achieved and Russian conventional forces gained the upper hand, then Moscow would likely extend the hand of peace and dictate harsh terms. On the other hand, If Chinese conventional forces gained the upper hand and trashed Russias pre-war military, Moscow would likely offer peace on somewhat less harsh terms, hinting that Chinese forces and population centers might regret it if China let such petty
23

successes go to its head. The difference between these two outcomes might seem slight, but this is not in fact so. As said earlier, the Russian regime would have banked much of its tenuous political capital on a casual adventure in Central Asia blown out of proportions. Russia would probably have already lost some cities and suffered millions of civilian casualties. Most observers agree that Russians have a high tolerance rate for suffering, provided there is a victorious outcome. However, if Russia also lost the conventional fight decisively to China, then domestic elements in Russia would be very discontented indeed, whatever sort of favorable peace emerged. Millions of Russians would have died for dubious prestige and international notoriety, even as their rulers gambled the very survival of Russia on technological wizardry. This sort of Pyrrhic victory could very easily be the end of Russias leaders and the catalyst for dramatic and inexorable social change. If the Afghanistan War in the 1980s could trigger the fall of the Soviet Union, surely an unpopular war with China in the 2010s could do the same to Putins Russia? The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party could ironically survive their vanquishers in Moscow, if they were only permitted by the circumstances to inflict unacceptable conventional losses on the Russian military. Therefore, the conventional aspects of this conflict are almost as important as the nuclear for determining the political and long term ramifications of the conflict. The conventional balance between Russia and China would involve a more complicated variety of factors and assets than the nuclear balance. The parameter of the conflict starting in Central Asia, being a few days or weeks, and involving tactical nuclear weapons narrow down the possibilities somewhat. Let us suppose that Russias expeditionary force into Central Asia, Eastern Military District, and the Russian Pacific Fleet, were the primary assets on the Russian side. We can factor in the vast majority of Russias air force, which would be quickly transferrable to the front, as well as perhaps a modest amount of reinforcements from other Military Districts over the space of several days. Let us suppose that Chinas Shenyang, Beijing, and Lanzhou Military Regions, the PLA Navy, and most air assets were the primary conventional assets on the Chinese side. We can factor in a higher proportion of reinforcements on the Chinese side, because China has shorter and more interior lines of communication than Russia. Tactical nuclear weapons must be factored in, but sparingly, since we must assume that after a few hours Russian and Chinese leaders are cut off or engaged in frenzied negotiations and trying to deescalate the conflict. Therefore, we can presume that the conventional contest would
24

take place in a grand theatre of war running from Kashgar all the way to the seas off Vladivostok. There are three principal fronts: the Central Asian front, the Ussuri River (or Eastern) Front, and the naval front in the Pacific Ocean. In a military era of rapid communications and travel, none of these fronts are entirely insulated from each other, but since we are assuming a very short war, the Central Asia front can be considered largely in isolation from the other two, being separated by Mongolia. Aside from these three fronts, the conventional air war would constitute a sort of complementary, shadow frontits victor gaining a considerable advantage on all of the other three. We shall now consider each of these fronts in isolation and then draw overall conclusions. The first front to be considered is the Central Asian front. The Russian expeditionary force into Central Asia would probably consist of tens of thousands of troops drawn from its Central Military Region and the forces stationed in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Only Uzbekistan has a sizeable and organized military (50,000 troops with modest armor and artillery support) of those likely to resist Russian aggression.59 However, Turkmenistan could pose a serious insurgency. Additional Russian forces would be needed to guarantee the continuing compliance of Kazakhstan, with its 1,600 tanks and 100,000 troops, although we may tentatively add the Kazakh forces to those of Russia if we assume that the latter applied its diplomatic pressures effectively. 60 At the same time, we can assume that the Kazakh forces would only partially and halfheartedly engage the PLA when Kazakh leaders found themselves unexpectedly in the midst of a great power war. Moreover, the Kazakh military lacks the Russians or Chineses technology and training, of course, consisting mostly of ex-Soviet assets. The Russians would probably commit almost the entire Central Military Region to the Central Asian adventure in order to guarantee success. Therefore, let us assume no more than a handful of mechanized and artillery brigades, accompanied by only modest air support.

59 60

The Military Balance 2012, 285, 291. The Military Balance, 2012. 255-256.

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Figure 2

As the Russians approach the southern portions of Central Asia, clashing intermittently with indigenous troops, we may assume that the Sino-Russian War has begun. At least a portion of the PLA Lanzhou Military Region has crossed the frontier and clashed with Russian forces. The Lanzhou Military Region has a long border, running from that of India over to central Mongolia. Therefore, the Lanzhou commander would likely commit only a portion of his forces to what he believes is a forestalling measure across the frontier. The most likely Chinese units to be selected would be those of the Xinjiang Military District, given that the 47th and 21st Group Armies are headquartered far to the rear in Shaanxi. It is reasonable to assume, however, that
26

PLA commanders would have dispatched several heavy units from the 47th and 21st to back up the Xinjiang forces, as soon as the Russian deployment near Kazakhstan became known. This brings the Chinese forces in the Central Asian Front to roughly four infantry divisions and a handful of supporting brigades and regiments, plus perhaps two mechanized or armored divisions from the armies headquartered in Shaanxi.61 As the China would be reacting to the Russians, rather than beating up on Central Asian satellites, we can assume that they are accompanied by heavier air support than the Russian forces. Therefore, let us assume a large portion of the Russian Central Military Region (plus the Kazak army) against a heavily reinforced Xinjiang Military District (plus the Uzbekistani army and allied irregulars). As Figure 2 demonstrates, the Russian force would have a serious problem on their hands. In order to establish their new military front on the Afghan and Iranian borders, Russian commanders would need to spread out their limited forces substantially. Even if the Russians allowed for the faint possibility of Chinese intervention, it is unlikely that even half their total force would be stationed along the Chinese border. Most would be engaged in overcoming the Uzbekistani Army, seizing Tashkent, and breaking out of the Russian bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Chinese, having time to prepare, could hit the Russian flank along the Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani border. The Chinese would probably have the element of surprise, catching the already engaged Russian forces off guard. To these geographic and tactical considerations must be added the combination of numbers, technology, and air support if we are to determine a likely winner on this front. Since the infrastructure of Central Asia is appalling, particularly amidst the mountain passes bordering China, we can assume longer travel times and therefore less time for much to happen in this theatre in a few days or weeks of fighting. Given the forces estimated for each side, the most likely scenario is that PLA forces on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan offensive would crush all opposition. We have said that the Chinese have a reinforced Group Army at their disposal with ample mechanized units and air support for the entire front. With a defensive force holding the line against Kazakhstan, this could amount to 40,000-50,000 men against a small fraction of the Russian force. 62 Thus, a Chinese force that was superior to the entire Russian expeditionary force in Central Asia would be pitted against a small fraction of the latter. The

61

Regular Army Order of Battle SinoDefense.com, (February 13th, 2009) http://www.sinodefence.com/army/organisation/army-orbat.asp (Accessed, 11/20/2012) 62 The average PLA Group Army is 30,000-50,000 men. See Cordesman, Anthony H. and Nicholas S. Yarosh, Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective, (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012), 48.

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Chinese would be much closer to their supply lines and in more friendly territory than the Russians. The sizeable Uzbekistani force guarding Tashkent could make a difference. In sum, the Russians would be overextended, tied down, and caught off their guard by a superior force closer to its homeland. To these factors, we must add the shadow front of airpower. The Chinese Air Force assigns at least 10 regiments of fighters and bombers to the Lanzhou Military District. Reinforced from elsewhere, this air support complement could total at least a fifth of the entire PLA Air Force. In that case, we would have roughly 400 Chinese aircraft against, at most, all 150 aircraft assigned to the Russian Central Military District.63 The Russian aircraft in this theatre are proportionally more advanced, featuring MiG-31s and Su-24s against only two fighter regiments of Chinese J-11s.64 However, this imbalance of numbers, as well as the proximity of Chinas airfields, would presumably overcome the Russian technological advantage. The Chinese pilots also uniformly receive more hours of training per year than the Russian pilots. Finally, we must not discount the Chinese advantage in nuclear bombers. Whether these were employed in a strategic or tactical sense, the Chinese bombers would greatly outnumber the Russians on any front. This would provide a terrifying distraction for the Russian Airforce and could ruin Russian ground forces day in a way that the Russian nuclear arsenal could not forestall at all. A combination of numbers, training, and proximity to home airfields would hand the air war in Central Asia to the Chinese. The conclusion to be drawn from this intricate interplay of factors is that the PLA would score early successes on the Central Asian front, throwing the entire Russian southward advance off balance. The appalling terrain might aid a Russian withdrawal northwards back into Kazakhstan, but Chinese air power and long-range artillery could negate this factor. Having devastated a sizeable portion of the Russian expeditionary force, the PLA could follow up with crushing blows against the Russian forces further west or north. Easier terrain, Russian disarray, and a steadily growing numerical advantage would probably build on each other to deliver the entire Central Front to China in the first week or so of the conflict. Now we move to the Eastern Front, which would run from the eastern tip of Mongolia to the quays of Vladivostok. This is a very different front than Central Asia, for it constitutes none

63 64

The Military Balance, 2012, 238; China has a total of roughly 1,700 combat-capable aircraft. The Military Balance, 2012, 199, 239.

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other than the historic boundary between sovereign Russian and Chinese territory. During the Cold War, this border was enormously militarized and saw numerous clashes and skirmishes. Russia and China already have some of their most powerful armies in position along this front. Artillery and missile emplacements are already deployed here in force. The fighting would be immediate and devastating, as soon as word of hostilities made its way from Central Asia and through the belligerent High Commands. Russias Eastern Military District stations 1 armored brigade, 19 mechanized brigades, 2 air assault brigades, and 13 supporting artillery and missile brigades along this front.65 The Russian Third Air Force & Air Defense Command provides permanent air support to the Far East of 350 fighter aircraft.66 This is a far better positioned, armored, and all-around formidable Russian army group than any force which Moscow would be inclined to send into Central Asia. After all, the Eastern Military District is Russias conventional first line of defense against the other greatest land power in Asia. However, the Southern Military District is reportedly the best armed and equipped of all the Russian army groups. That the Russians cannot do the same for the District which stands against the PLA bodes ill for the overall health of the Russian conventional military. As for China, the Shenyang Military Region and the eastern portion of the Beijing Military Region face the Russian border. Since highways and railways abound between the Beijing region and the Russian border, we can effectively count the entire Beijing Military Region as participating in the border clash within a matter of days. The Beijing and Shenyang Military Regions possess Chinas most powerful and mechanized forces. Four of the nine armored divisions, six of the nine mechanized divisions, and six of twelve armored brigades fall within these districts.67 In particular, the 38th Army near Beijing has entirely mechanized artillery, state-of-the art air defense, the latest Type-96 tanks, and superior training than the average Russian armored force.68 In effect, half of Chinas armored forces and probably a large proportion of its most modern tanks face the Eastern Front. This could amount to 2,000 Type-96 tanks and 500 Type-99 tanks, not to mention several thousand older models.69 Although only the Type-96 and Type-99 Chinese tanks are at the level of the best Russian tanks (T-80s and T-90s),

65 66

The Military Balance, 2012, 184-203. The Military Balance, 2012, 184-203. 67 Arbatov, 41 68 Arbatov, 41-42. 69 The Military Balance, 2012, 211-242.

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there are only 1,500 of the latter in active service throughout the entire Russian military.70 The mechanized and armored brigades of the Russian Far East represent about 2/3 of the total, which suggests that only around 1,000 of these modern Russian tanks (plus perhaps 1,500 of the older T-72 models) face the Chinese Beijing and Shenyang forces.71 In short, the Chinese have as many modern tanks on this front as the Russians have tanks in total, while total Chinese armored forces may outnumber the Russians many times over. If we factor in likely troop levels of 500,000 Chinese against 70,000 Russians, then the odds seem even more stacked in favor of China, particularly when we factor in that Russian units often lack half of their assigned staff and face severe recruitment problemsuggesting that even these Russian numbers may be inflated.72 Faced with such overwhelming numbers, there is little wonder that the Russians rely so heavily on the doctrine of first strike with nuclear weapons. Only in airpower do the Russians have the edge on the Eastern Front. Russian fighter jets remain more advanced than Chinese ones by at least a few decades and generally serve as the hand-me-down prototypes for the latter. Only the Chinese J-11s can compare with the typical Russian jet and the Russians can produce fighter jet engines with ease that the Chinese are only beginning to produce domestically.73 Moreover, the Russians could assign a large majority of their air force to this region within hours. The Chinese would be able to deploy a somewhat smaller proportion of the PLA Airforce, given that China faces more potential threats on other fronts and must hold many fighters in reserve. In that case, we can assume some proportion of 1,800 superior Russian aircraft against a smaller proportion of inferior 1,600 Chinese aircraft.74 The air war could clearly go to Russia on this front in short order, although it must be recalled that Chinese fighter pilots generally receive far more training than Russian ones.75 However, there are reasons why this might not tip the overall balance on the ground towards Russia. Chinese long-range artillery is in many ways more effective at long-range bombardments of Russian positions than Chinese (or Russian) aircraft would be in their stead.76 Chinese Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) artillery are among the most powerful in the world and can hit

70 71

The Military Balance, 2012, 184-203. The Military Balance, 2011, 184-203. 72 This is assuming that Russias 270,000 active ground forces and Chinas 1,600,000 active ground forces are divided evenly amongst Russias 4 military commands and Chinas 7. The Military Balance, 2011; 211-242. 73 Barbanov, 10-200. 74 The Military Balance, 2012, 184-203, 211-242. 75 Arbatov, 46. 76 Arbatov, 44-45.

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Russian positions throughout the region within five minutes, whereas aircraft must evade all manner of opposing aircraft and surface-to-air defenses.77 Even if they were progressively losing the air war over a period of a few days, the Chinese could pound the smaller Russian ground forces into oblivion with thousands of artillery. Even if the Russian aircraft came to inflict appalling losses on the Chinese ground forces, the 7 to 1 advantage in numbers would surely go a long way to negate this. Aircraft cannot fight a war and gain territory on their own; they are only meant to facilitate the forces on the ground. With the Russian armies along the Ussuri River collapsing, the Russian air force might feel more inclined to withdraw to more distant airfields than give way to slow attrition. Finally, it is important to bring up the Chinese advantage in nuclear bombers again. These weapons would pose the same sort of tactical threat on the Eastern Front as in Central Asia, distracting the Russian Air Force and wreaking havoc to Russian ground formations and lines of communication. Whether they would swing the balance of the air war is an open question, but they help to tilt the overall balance on the Ussuri Front in Chinas favor.

77

Arbatov,

31

Figure 3

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Another factor on the Eastern Front which favors the Chinese is geography. As Figure 3 shows, the Chinese numbers allow them to take advantage of the salient shape of Manchuria, while the Russian lack of numbers prevent them from the sort of encirclement campaign which the Soviets achieved so spectacularly in 1945 against the Japanese. The Russian lines of communication are not far from the frontier and are easily broken, whether by overrunning ground forces or by conventional or nuclear missiles. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, most of the population in the Russian Far East is concentrated in a 90-mile belt of settlement from Chita in the West to Vladivostok on the Pacific with the Trans-Siberian Railroad providing the single corridor for transregional transportation through it.78 This narrow and vulnerable region is both the Russian Far Easts transportation hub and the region which China would most desire to occupy. By contrast, the Chinese lines of communication lead directly back south towards Beijing for thousands of miles. Chinese retreating forces would grow only stronger and more reinforced, while the Russians grew

78

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Stephen Blank, 478,

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weaker. In reality, looking at this depiction of the relative forces, it is hard to imagine the Russians doing much more than defending their initial positions, if not beating a hasty retreat. If the Russians only had a decisive advantage in an asset like armor or mechanized units, they could launch blitzkrieg style incursions to surround and overcome enemies through sheer mobility and firepower. In the 1980s, this was probably more or less what the (well-endowed with armor) Far East Soviet commanders had in mind, if war broke out with China on this front. In the 21st Century, however, times have changed. The Russians do not even have an advantage in heavy weaponry or armor, let alone numbers. They are up against an army many times larger and almost as well equipped as themselves. The Russians cannot afford to be more aggressive than absolutely necessary and on a localized level, hoping that they can avoid being surrounded and destroyed. To our long consideration of the conventional war, there remains only a discussion of the naval front in the Pacific. In previous military eras, this theatre of war would be considered almost entirely separately from the land theatres, if the time frame were a matter of days or weeks. Naval units had little chance to impact events on land, except to deliver more land or air units to those events. In the late 20th Century, all of this changed forever. The development of the ballistic missile has allowed naval units to attack each other and land units from hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away. Victory in naval combat is more about timing, precision, and positioning than about firepower or armor. Few ships of any class can survive an impact from the very least of anti-ship missiles. The priority is not to survive such missiles from enemy ships, but to evade and preempt them. This makes predicting the outcome of naval combat even more difficult, in many ways, than the outcome of land combat, if one has little more to go off of than pre-war fleet dispositions and forces. Nonetheless, an analysis of a hypothetical Sino-Russian War cannot be complete without considering what would happen between the PLA Navy and Russian Pacific Fleet, not to mention what both fleets could do to influence events on land. The Russian Pacific Fleet stands at a clear disadvantage of quantity, if not quality, when matched against the full might of the Chinese Navy. The Russian Pacific Fleet has 21 submarines (3 strategic and 18 tactical), 1 guided-missile cruiser, 8 guided-missile destroyers, 23 vessels meant for patrol and coastal duties, 8 mine warfare vessels, 4 amphibious vessels, and 15 logistics and support ships79. Bearing in mind that the PLA Navy must hold a large proportion of

79

The Military Balance, 2012, 184-203

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itself in reserve against Pacific rivals, the PLA Navy is as follows: one partially operational aircraft carrier, seventy one submarines (3 strategic and 68 tactical), 11 destroyers, 65 frigates, hundreds of patrol and coastal craft, 73 mine warfare vessels, at least 2 amphibious assault ships, and 200 logistics and support vessels.80 The three strategic submarines on either side can be regarded as part of the nuclear battle more than of the naval battle, since they would be busy being targeted by nukes or targeting their own nukes. The patrol, mine warfare, and coastal vessels can also be discounted, since neither power would have much incentive to launch amphibious operations or move its vessels close to the enemy shoreline. After all, the Russian and Chinese fleets are separated by the Korean Peninsula. Even if the Chinese saw it as in their interest to attack Vladivostok from the sea, a Chinese amphibious force would have to round the Korean Peninsula and deal with whatever formidable defenses the Russians would doubtless have in store for them in the waters surrounding their great naval base. Given that the Russian fleet has 8 mine warfare vessels, extensive mining of the sea routes to Vladivostok is more than likely. Finally, the Chinese Navy only has amphibious vessels capable of carrying a regimentsized unit.81 Therefore, amphibious and supporting vessels may be discounted and the principal surface combatants, such as the tactical submarines and guided-missile surface ships are the real assets to be compared. The Chinese seem to possess a clear numerical advantage here. To be sure, not all the Chinese frigates are guided-missile launchers and the Russian guided-missile cruiser could probably pack quite a punch. The numbers of destroyers are about even. However, 65 Chinese tactical submarines against a mere 18 could surely make a decisive difference to the entire equation. The Chinese would only need to win the sub-surface contest to put the Russian surface vessels in serious danger. Moreover, the Russian navy may have superior technology, but its vessels are often of questionable quality and durability, while those of China are often brand new.82 Once again, the odds seem to favor the Chinese and we can put the naval advantage on the side of the PRC. Nonetheless, this cannot be said with nearly as much certainty as the Chinese advantage on the Eastern Front or Central Asia. Modern naval warfare is a highly fickle

80 81

The Military Balance, 2012, 211-242. th Professor Phillip Karber, as stated in Lecture on Tuesday, November 27 , 2012, Georgetown University 82 Kipp, Jacob W., A Depressing Curtain for Russian Naval Power: Admiral Sergei Gorshkov Fails Her Sea Trials th Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 9 Issue: 219, November 20 , 2012, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_t tnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40187&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=05a1efed9 d0183d13d0701465ae0bab3 (Accessed 11/30/2012), (1-2).

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and untested thing. It is entirely possible that the Russian vessels have such superior missile technology and guidance systems that the Chinese fleet would be at the disadvantage. Nonetheless, at the very least the Russian fleet would have a lot on its plate and not be able to influence the land battle mucha battle in which the Russians need naval support much more badly than do the Chinese. If the Chinese navy could lend its support to the Eastern Front, this would only make Chinese victory there all the more likely. Now that all three theatres of conventional conflict have been surveyed, it is time to make general conclusions about the likely outcome and implications of the conventional conflict to the larger picture. We have assumed that Russian relative success on the nuclear front would be accompanied by a conventional conflict of several days, if not weeks, during which the two sides negotiate (or regain communications) and try to gain bargaining chips. The grand survey of the conventional conflict seems to give the edge to the Chinese on all three fronts: Central Asia, the Eastern Front, and the Naval Front. The Chinese would seem poised to make deep thrusts into Central Asia and the Russian Far East, dealing heavy damage to Russian forces. The base at Kyrgyzstan, Trans-Siberian communications, Vladivostokall Russian strongpoints near the frontier seem in danger. The Russian Transiberian Railway and attendant lines of communication would be eliminated by nuclear, if not conventional, weaponry. Such is the nature of modern firepower that casualties on the losing side escalate dramatically. As negotiations wore to a close, the Russians would face the reality that nuclear success against the Chinese nuclear deterrent had not secured them conventional success on the battlefield. As stated earlier, it is unlikely that the Russian leaders would resort to widespread city-busting, even as their conventional forces fell back in disarray. The political costs would still be too great, given that most Russian cities were preserved. The conventional battle would never be more than an opportunity for bargaining chips at the negotiating table. At D+14 or so, Russia would only have to escalate the use of tactical nuclear weapons against advancing Chinese forces to unacceptable levels in order for the Chinese to sue for peace, assuming they had not done so already. Therefore, the negotiating table would be the place where Chinas conventional victory bore fruit. Given Russias virtual elimination of the Chinese nuclear arsenal, the Chinese would not be in a particularly strong position even after conventional victories. The Russians would have tremendous diplomatic leverage which had not existed before the war. In that sense, Russian objectives to restore failing prestige would be achieved. However, Russia would have taken
36

some nuclear hits and the loss of the conventional war would leave the Russians even worse off. If Russian forces, say, occupied most of Xingjian and Manchuria, having routed the PLA and sent most of the PLA Navy to the bottom of the ocean, Russian diplomats would have a lot more bargaining power. The Chinese diplomats could not argue with the fact that Russia controlled Central Asia and occupied large tracks of Chinese sovereign territoryterritory out of the reach of China forever except on Russian terms. It is not hard to imagine the Russians carving out an independent satellite Uighur nation in Xingjian. Nuclear devastation at home would not make the Russians inclined to be magnanimous. As for Manchuria, this is more historically and ethnically Chinese, but it would not be the first time that Russia occupied the province and solidified economic interests there. The destruction of the Chinese Navy would change the larger geopolitical equation vis--vis the United States and its Pacific allies. One cannot discount the mediating influence of the United States, at this point. All of these factors would put Russia in a stronger position on the ground, at the end of the warin terms of morale as well as territory. However, the conventional analysis suggests that all this would be reversed. China would control Central Asia south of the Kazakh border, as well as the Russian Far East and the naval situation in the Pacific. China would be able to exchange withdrawal from Russian and Central Asian territory for salvaging something from the mess of losing its nuclear deterrent. Russia would have won the warwith qualificationsbut not be in a particularly stronger position diplomatically than before the war. With its military bested, its former ally a hated foe, many of its cities smoking ruins, its arsenal severely depleted, and nuclear notoriety, Russia would face an uncertain and unenviable diplomatic future. Even more importantly, Russia would face a highly uncertain domestic future. We have already assumed that a winter of discontent helped prompt the Russian adventure in Central Asia. The loss of so many civilians and young men to the most horrific destruction and to crippling defeat on the battlefield would have a tremendous impact on Russian public opinion. One recalls not only the Soviet war in Afghanistan, but the Russo-Japanese War, when Russian defeat in the very same region of Asia prompted the 1905 revolutionor even World War I itself, which led to the Bolshevik Revolution. Historically, the Russian public has never taken kindly to its leaders losing wars and tends to reward them with more than simply a defeat at the ballot boxgiven that the ballot box is generally in short supply. Historically, the Russian public gains the sympathy of the chastened returning soldiers and topples the regime without mercy--or
37

at least exacts severe concessions out of it. The edifice of Vladimir Putins Russia would likely not survive conventional defeat on the battlefield for very long, no matter how splendidly the nuclear arsenal and Russian diplomats performed. As for the leaders of the CCP, they might ironically emerge stronger and more popular from the Sino-Russian War than ever before. There are few better rallying points for national solidarity than winning battles against a hated invaderespecially if the hated foe uses nuclear weapons first. One can only imagine the public outrage towards Russia which would engulf Chinese society at the news (no doubt officially exaggerated) of Russian aggression. Nuclear detonations at Second Artillery sites and elsewhere throughout China would combine anger with fear and horror. Finally, news would come in from the front of the heroes of the peoples war, who gallantly drove back the Russian hordes. This news, combined with the relief of not being wiped from the face of the earth, would almost certainly bring about jubilation throughout all of the Peoples Republic of Chinaseeming to deserve its name for the first time (and maybe last) time in its history. The CCP would play up the bravery of the PLA and the adeptness of the Chinese diplomats at the negotiating table, spicing matters with its usual heavy dose of propaganda and spin. If the Putin regime collapsed shortly thereafter, this would only enhance Chinese morale. To think that the CCP would not come out of this scenario looking better to its subjects denies reason. At the same time, while the Chinese economy would doubtless have taken severe damage from nuclear destruction, not to mention the loss of the Russian and Central Asian market, the Chinese would have more than enough people, resources, and morale to pull through and revive in the following yearswith plenty of moral and material support from abroad. While the war would be a pyrrhic victory for Russia, China might revive from the ashes like a phoenix. Looking geopolitically, the effects on the larger world of this conflict would doubtless be tremendous and sweeping. The world economy could hardly fail to plunge into a frigid depression, if only for a matter of weeks, as the Russian and Chinese markets effectively shut down. Fears of escalation, economic recession, and military alerts would throw the larger international system into disarray for quite some time. Europe would lose much of its energy sources overnight. Far Eastern commerce and communications would be thrown into complete and utter chaos, as international shipping fled for dear life. EMP shock waves and cyber-attacks might roll destructively through the Internet and world communications. Nuclear radiation would
38

contaminate the environment in an unprecedented number of locations and to an unprecedented extent. Ultimately, the greatest beneficiary of the war would, of course, be the United States. Unscathed and rallying the global response behind it, the United States would be in a powerful position to mediate the conflict and its aftermath, seeming like a voice of moderation and reason against the madness of the Eurasian autocracies. The United States might emerge with almost the level of influence it held in 1945. The United States two greatest rivals would be in a state of exhaustion, their militaries and economies shattered for years to come. Lacking a nuclear deterrent, the Chinese might give in to all sorts of pressure on Pacific diplomatic matters, in exchange for American aid and sympathy. With a greatly diminished deterrent and legitimacy, the Russians might offer up similar concessions. The rise of China would be delayed, at best. Russia would devolve once again into diplomatic insignificance and chaos. Hopefully, the West would be able to oversee the transition to a more just and democratic regime than after the fall of the Soviet Union. Either way, the United States would hold all of the cards as the fires of Eurasia died down. At the same time, the deeper humanitarian and cultural cost of the war would be beyond exaggeration. Hundreds of thousands would die in a matter of weeks, sparking a humanitarian crisis beyond imagining. The liberal world order, so serene ever since World War II, would have suffered a severe blow to its confidence and sense of permanence. Even the most insulated and affluent Westerners might well ask themselves with apprehension if this violent disruption to the Pax Americana had only just begun. There are many who would question the utility and motivation of this analysis. To most, the scenario of a Sino-Russian War seems conjured more from the imagination of a B-rate Hollywood producer than a serious or sane academic mind. There is a deep-seated human suspicion that those who study evil are tainted by it--however detached they might think themselves to beand that it is far better to avert ones eyes entirely. Perhaps the suspicion is not altogether unjustified. After all, Western academia owes its hostile view of War Studies to the nightmarish memory of World War I, a universal tragedy fueled as much by the jingoistic scholarship which came before as by bullets. However, by considering the nature of future wars, we have the possibility of forestalling them or at least of mitigating them. Russia and China are two mighty nations who have fought one another before and show a plausible likelihood of doing so again. If these two Eurasian empires are to break Montgomerys rules of war and clash, the United States has the power and the duty to pick up the pieces after themand a bit of foresight
39

would not go amiss. The foresight this analysis offers cautiously predicts that if the Eurasian giants fought in the way that they are most likely to, Russia would narrowly win the war, but lose the peace. Russia would likely win the nuclear fight, but suffer catastrophic and politically prohibitive losses. This author gives too much credit to the humanity and reason of the Russian people to presume that the men in the Kremlin would prefer to utterly destroy the Chinese nation rather than concede the limits of Russian power with good grace. Rather than test this generous assumption, it is to be hoped that the leaders of Russia will learn to win the peace in peace, rather than forfeit their rule and the lives of their people in a land war in Asia. Samuel 1:27 How are the mighty fallen, and the weapons of war perished!

Bibliography
First-Hand Testimony
Professor Phillip Karber, Georgetown University, quoted in Lecture on Tuesday, November 27th, 2012. Professor Phillip Karber, Interview by Phone, Friday December 7, 2012, Georgetown University.

Scholarly Reports
Arbatov, Aleksey, Viktor Yeltsin, Aleksandr Lukin, Vasiliy Mikheyev, and Aleksandr Khramchikhim, Prospects for Chinas Participation in Nuclear Arms Limitation, Trans. Aleksey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Sergey Oznobishchev, (Translated by the Asian Arms Control Project of the Georgetown University Department of Government, Washington DC. Originally published: Moscow, Russia: Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Threat Initiative Foundation, 2012)

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Cordesman, Anthony H., and Nicholas S. Yarosh, Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective, (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012). Yesin, Victor, Third After the United States and Russia: On Chinas Nuclear Potential without Underestimation or Exaggeration (Translated by the Georgetown University Asian Arms Control Project, Originally published by the Military-Industrial Courier, May 2nd, 2012), http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/content/russian-article-chinese-nuclear-potential (Accessed, 12/3/2012)

Articles
Aslund, Anders, How Putin is Turning Russia into One Big Enron, Issue 5018, The Moscow Times, November 21st, 2012, (1-2) http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/how-putinis-turning-russia-into-one-big-enron/471734.html (Accessed 12/3/2012). Blank, Stephen. Russias Ever Friendlier Ties to VietnamAre They a Signal to China?, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 219, November 30, 2012, (1-2) http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f3785 76261ae3e&tx_ttnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40184&tx_ttn ews[backPid]=7&cHash=c8a07ab4945b212568d3b3341075ca7b (Accessed 11/30/2012) Chang, Andrei, Chinas Nuclear Deterrence Policies, Kanwa Asian Defense Review Online, (December 5, 2012, Open Source Center), 34-35. https://www.opensource.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_200_0_43/content/Displ ay/PRINCE/CPP20120524787031?printerFriendly=true (Accessed 12/10/2012) Diehl, Jackson, The Coming Collapse: Authoritarians in China and Russia Face an Endgame, World Affairs, Summer/October 2012 Issue, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/comingcollapse-authoritarians-china-and-russia-face-endgame (Accessed, 12/1/2012) Jargalsaikhany, Mendee, Mongolias Vulnerability to Russian Fuel Supply, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 9 Issue: 214, November 21, 2012, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f3785 76261ae3e&tx_ttnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[pointer]=1&tx_ttnews[tt _news]=40148&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=94cc421b075cf1b73a14008bf0585adb (Accessed, 12/1/2012) Kipp, Jacob W., A Depressing Curtain for Russian Naval Power: Admiral Sergei Gorshkov Fails Her Sea Trials, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 9 Issue: 219, November 20th, 2012, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f3785 76261ae3e&tx_ttnews[any_of_the_words]=china%20world&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40187&tx_ttn ews[backPid]=7&cHash=05a1efed9d0183d13d0701465ae0bab3 (Accessed 11/30/2012) Kumar, Vikas, India: the warped history and geography of Non-Alignment 2.0, East Asia Forum: Economics, Politics, and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific, November 29th,
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2012, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/11/29/india-the-warped-history-and-geography-ofnonalignment-2-0/ (Accessed 12/1/2012) Lash, Iacopo, "Chinese Nuclear Strategy, No-First-Use, and US-Chinese Nuclear Stability, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/content/chinese-nuclear-strategy-no-first-use-and-us-chinesenuclear-stability , Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, September 24, 2012, (Accessed, 12/1/2012) Pinkov, Andrei, PLA Second Artillery Force Establishes 4th DF31A, Kanwa Asian Defense Review Online (December 5, 2012, Open Source Center), https://www.opensource.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_200_0_43/content/Displ ay/PRINCE/CPP20120531787012?printerFriendly=true (Accessed 12/10/2012). Purser, Benjamin S., and Michael S. Chase, Waypoint or Destination? The Jin-Class Submarine and Chinas Quest for Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrence, China Brief, Vol.12 Issue.15, (August 3, 2012), http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39729&cHash=26b e3d83024416e0dbd1eba64c05e4a0 (Accessed, 11/20/2012)

Books
Central Asian Security Trends: Views from Europe and Russia, Ed. Stephen J. Blank, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 19, 2011), http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1063 (Accessed 12/1/2012). The Military Balance, 2012, (London, Taylor & Francis Group, 2012) Russia and Its Near East Neighbours, Ed. Maria Raquel Freire and Robert E. Kanet, (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012) Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, Ed. Robert E. Kanet, (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011) Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future, Ed. Stephen Blank, (The Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 22, 2011,), 478, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1087 (Accessed 12/1/2012). Strategic Asia 2011-2012: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers China and India, Ed. Ashley J. Tellis, Travis Tanner, and Jessica Keough. (Washington DC, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2011) Barabanov, Mikhail, Vasiliy Kashin, and Konstantin Makienko, Shooting Star: Chinas Military Modernization in the 21st Century, (Minneapolis, East View Press, 2012)
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Cimbala, Stephen J., and Peter Jacob Rainow, Russia and Postmodern Deterrence: Military Powers and Its Challenges for Security, (Washington DC: Potomac Books Inc., 2007) Garnett, Sherman W., Rapprochement or Rivalry?:Russia-China Relations in a Changing Asia, (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2000)

Websites
Google Public Data, Gross National Product in PPP Dollars, http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&i dim=country:CHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gdp+growth#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm =h&met_y=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:CHN: USA:RUS&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false (Accessed 11/10/2012) SS-27 Stalin Topol-M RS-12 M2 RT-2PM2 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Army Recognition.com. http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_missile_system_vehicle_uk/topol-m_ss-27_rt2pm2_stalin_rs-12m2_intercontinental_ballistic_missile_technical_data_sheet_uk.html (Accessed 12/10/2012) Hansard 18032005 , The Army Estimates May 1962 vol. 241 http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1962/may/30/the-armyestimates#S5LV0241P0-00791 (Accessed, 11/20/2012) Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces The Russian Nuclear Forces Project. http://www.russianforces.org/current/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012) Russian Military Districts GlobalSecurity.org, (September 10th, 2012) http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/mo-md.htm (Accessed, 11/20/2012) Regular Army Order of Battle SinoDefense.com, (February 13th, 2009) http://www.sinodefence.com/army/organisation/army-orbat.asp (Accessed, 11/20/2012) OConnor, Sean. PLA Ballistic Missiles: Technical Report APA-TR-2010-0802, August 2010, Air Power Australia: Australias Independent Defense Think Tank http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-Ballistic-Missiles.html#mozTocId925102 Asian Arms Control Project, Georgetown University Department of Government, http://www.asianarmscontrol.com/ (Accessed, 11/20/2012)

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