El Azpeitia - Id: 1592059 Learning Activities I. Basic Concepts Activity I.

1 In this activity you will use your knowledge about basic probability concepts. 1. Reflect about the following questions. a) What does prediction mean? A statement about the way things will happen in the future. b) What is likely? Very probable, apparently. c) What do you think about the sentence Today, rain is likely? In other words itd mean: Todays probably going to rain. d) What is the difference between certainty and possibility? Certainty is something that sure WILL HAPPEN. Possibility is something that MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN depending on the situation. e) What is gambling? Doubt, risk. (Dudar, arriesgarse) f) What does random mean? Aleatory.

Leonel Abraham Corts Sampayo ID: 1578557 1. What does prediction mean? Know something before it happens 2.What is likely? Probability 3.What do you think about the sentence "Today, rain is likely"? That maybe it will rain. 4.What is the difference between certainly and possibility? Certainly is something that it will happen, but possibility it means that i could happen or not 5.What does random mean? Aleatorie choice.

Story and Origin of Probability From Renaissance to advances in mathematics and philosophy, begins to give a coherent explanation for many phenomena that did not follow a pattern firm and determined, but random. This applies to all phenomena related to the probability of events that culminate in this time mainly in gambling. In the Renaissance period is when they begin to emerge more serious concerns around counting the number of possible outcomes of a dice thrown repeatedly or practical problems about how to divide the profits of the players when the game is interrupted. These concerns arose as attempts to solve more problems "everyday" to be fair in the betting and deals or even know the answers to advantage and therefore higher profits compared to other players, much less true mathematical concerns. The history of probability originated in the seventeenth century, when Pierre Fermat and Blaise Pascal try to solve some problems related to gambling. The problem of the Chevalier de Mere: Birth of probability. One day in 1654, Blaise Pascal, French mathematician, made a trip in the company of a more or less professional player known as the Chevalier de Mere, who was passionate about everything related to the game of dice and cards, besides being a noble and enlightened. This gentleman thought he had found a "falsehood" in the numbers to analyze the game of craps, noting that the behavior of the dice was different when using a given that when two dice are used. The "false" started just a mistaken comparison between the odds of rolling a six on a single die or rolling a six with two dice. For the gentleman there should be a proportional relationship between the number of moves needed to achieve the desired effect in either case. The problem was that that gentleman was not aware that in the second case was analyzing a composite likelihood where different probabilities must be calculated multiplicatively. This and other issues raised by the gentleman to Pascal on different issues of gambling, led to a correspondence between Pascal himself and some of his friends mathematicians, especially with Toulouse Pierre de Fermat, a lawyer by profession, but great lover of mathematics. This correspondence is the origin of the modern theory of probability. During the eighteenth century, most notably due to the popularity of gambling, the probability calculus had a remarkable development on the basis of this definition of probability. Highlights in 1713 the problem of Bernoulli and binaminal distribution, and in 1738 the first case studied by De Moivre, the central limit theorem. In 1809 began Gauss studying the theory of errors and Laplace in 1810, which had previously considered the issue, completed the development of this theory. In 1812 Pierre Laplace published "Theorie des Probabilities analytique" which presents a mathematical analysis of gambling. In the mid nineteenth century, an Austrian Augustinian friar, Gregor Mendel, initiated the study of heredity, genetics, with its interesting experiments on the crossing of plants with different characteristics. His work, "The mathematics of inheritance", was one of the first major applications of probability theory to the natural sciences. From the beginning the main difficulty to consider the probability as a branch of mathematics was the development of a theory accurate enough to be accepted as a form of mathematics. In the early twentieth century mathematician Andrei Kolmogorov's axiomatic form defined and laid the foundations for the modern theory of measurement. It is only after the mid-twentieth century, and by 1970 that the probability theory is taught as part of all current professional careers today. Today his knowledge is required in almost every engineering graduate studies, social sciences and health sciences.

Some instruments used different civilizations were: * Sumerians and Assyrians used a heel bone extracted from animals such as sheep, deer or horses, called talus, which carved so that they could fall into four different positions, so they are regarded as the precursors of the dice. * The Egyptians, in the tombs of pharaohs were some paintings that show both astragali as boards to record the results. * Since the days of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance were performed continuously with dice games. * Currently the casinos are examples that indicate man's fascination for the game, we can see them: roulette, slot machines, lotteries, etc.. CONCLUSION What began as a simple study to gambling was gaining momentum and was studied by many people around the world, some of the people who studied the probability were studied giving contributions and other contributions to these new concepts. The probability served largely to gambling, but also gave contributions to the natural sciences, mathematics, engineering and currently used in our day to get results through consistent results.