GPG

Investment Thesis April 7, 2013

Mo Boonipat

Guinness Peat Group Plc (LSE:GPG, co-listed NZX, ASX)

Investment Thesis
- Company in process of liquidation and returning cash to shareholders
- The aggregate value of the component parts are greater than the current market capitalization
- Catalyst: 23 May 2013 Shareholder meeting outline further capital management initiative, in addition to
Quantum Strategic Partners recently taking a 9% stake, with Waldemar Szlezak, managing director of private
equity group of Soros Fund Management sitting on the board of directors.

Two components of value:
1) Investments portfolio in holding company (no debt)being liquidate.
2) Coats plc (shareholders will end up with just Coats after all liquidation and distribution

Risks
-
-

Complications related to pension schemes and asset sale cause delays, decreasing the present value.
Coats Plc go bankrupt if cannot refinance debt (majority of borrowing due within 2-5 years)

Major shareholders

Insider buying: Mr. Rob Campbell, Chairman, recently brought more shares, bringing total to 505,043 shares.
Sir Ron Brierley, Non0Executive director, also hold 2.11% of shares outstanding.

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GPG Investment Thesis April 7, 2013

Mo Boonipat

Guiness'Peat'Group'(millions'of'GBP)
316Dec612
12/31/12
Assets
Cash'at'GPG
Listed'investments
'6'Tower'Limited
'6'Ridley'Corporation'Limited
''6'CIC'Australia'Limited
'6'PrimeAg'Australia'Limited
'6'Tandou'Limited
'Non6listed

4/17/13

notes

'''''275.00

'''''275.00

as'of'February'22,'2013

'''''''93.00
'''''''49.00
'''''''37.00
'''''''25.00
'''''''' 9.00
'''''''' 3.00
'''''491.00

'''''''92.74
'''''''37.13
'''''''39.20
'''''''26.10
'''''''10.20
'''''''' 3.60
'''''483.97

22.2'capital'return+'69.6'million'current'share'held'valued'at'market'(AUD'1.5)
'''''''37.13 market'value'(4/17/2013)
Sold'to'Peet'Limited.'May'2013'completion
Sold'April'2013
Sold
Sold

''''(124.00)

According'to'chairman's'statement'(annual'report'amount'='74)

'''''113.03 GBP
'''''171.80 USD

as'of'4/17/2013

Obligations
GPG'Pension'Schemes
Net'value'without'Coats
Overhead'costs'(GPG)
Market'Cap
Implied'value'of'Coats
USD.GBP''=1.52

'''''359.97
'''''''21.00
'''''473.00

Coats
(USD*millions)
Revenue
Operationg*profit*before*exceptional*items
Profit/(loss)*before*taxation
Net*profit/(loss)*attributable*to*GPG
Net*cash*inflow*from*normal*operating*activities
Acquisition*of*property,*plants*and*equipment
Free*cash*flow
average
net*debt*(cashSborrowings)
pension*IAS19*deficit*(nonSrecourse*to*GPG)*

2012
****1,653.00
********127.00
********111.30
**********50.60
********171.80
**********38.80
********133.00
**********98.62
********367.60
********318.78

2011
****1,701.60
********143.60
********124.20
**********71.20
********150.30
**********50.50
**********99.80

2010
****1,583.60
********132.30
********107.40
**********59.90
********117.80
**********36.50
**********81.30

2009
****1,408.00
**********95.90
**********36.40
***********(4.50)
********151.60
**********26.70
********124.90

2008
****1,645.40
********102.80
**********38.30
***********(8.30)
********107.70
**********53.60
**********54.10

********238.40

********241.90

********258.50

********411.40

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GPG Investment Thesis April 7, 2013

Mo Boonipat

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GPG Investment Thesis April 7, 2013

Mo Boonipat

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