The Cai Ross Ultimate Summer Preview Top 20

In lieu of my beloved, late and much lamented Premiere magazine and its annual predictions for the Top 20 Summer blockbusters, here is my speculative countdown (with the format taken from the 1995 Premiere Ultimate Summer Preview). If Im absurdly cock-eyed and wide of the mark, it will only be a further tribute to Premiere, who predicted that 1991s bullseye would be Dying Young (above Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and Terminator 2: Judgement Day). Release dates given are for the UK and dont always correspond with US dates. Well see how I did in September. Place your bets

20.

Kick-Ass 2 (Universal)

Its Like This. Costumed teen superheroes Kick-Ass (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and Hit Girl (Chlo Grace-Moretz) join forces with colourful vigilantes to combat arch enemy Red Mist (Christopher Mintz-Plasse). You The Man. Jim Carrey, practically unrecognisable as the criminally unhinged Col. Stars & Stripes. Stumbling Blocks. Original director Matthew Vaughn is replaced by the largely untested Jeff Wadlow. Will he have the same punkish grasp of the material? The original caused controversy with its combination of extreme violence, profanity and children factors that kept it firmly in the cult bracket ($48m). However, if Universal tone it down to a PG-13, will its core audience stay away in disgust? Surprisingly little buzz. Selling Points Or will it be opened up to a much wider base? It opens in August in the US, giving the big boys a wide berth, so it could have the field all to itself. The original is beloved by its fans, and Jim Carrey is a considerable bonus. Prediction: Not quite kick-ass, more superficial damage. This has a Robocop 2 smell about it and it would exceed expectations to break $100m. Id say more like 70. Release date 19 July

19 .

R.I.P.D. (Universal)

Its Like This: Slain cop Ryan Reynolds is recruited into an afterlife police force and is given undead gunslinger Jeff Bridges for a partner. Together they protect the living, while Reynolds tries to find the man who killed him.

You The Man: Ryan Reynolds, hoping to crush Green Lantern into distant memory and praying that some of Jeff Bridges recent good luck rubs off on him. Stumbling Blocks: A comic book Sci-Fi movie based on a comic that no ones heard of. Bit like Dylan Dog. The strong premise is undercut by a forgettable and gag-free trailer. The poster calls to mind In Time and Repo Men: two films which are rarely called to mind. Selling Points: Ryan Reynolds is one of the most personable, charming stars out there and slowly but surely, audiences are coming around to the fact. Who could resist Jeff Bridges, especially when hes riffing on his recent turn as Ethan Edwards? Director Robert Schwentke spun gold from hay when he made RED and acronyms seem to work well for him. Rotten Tomatoes 97% interest rating will give everyone some relief. Prediction: Universal will be hoping for this decades Men In Black franchise (almost cynically so) but this looks like it will choke on Supermans cape-wake. $95m Release date 30th August

18.

The Great Gatsby (Warners)

Its Like This: F. Scott Fitzgeralds classic novel is given the MTV treatment by Moulin Rouge! director Baz Luhrmann. The fairy-tale life of Long Islander Jay Gatsby is scrutinised by war veteran Nick Carraway. Jealousy, obsession and tragedy ensues. You The Man: Leonardo DiCaprio, whos status as one of the few great bona fide 21st Century leading men gains traction with each passing film. Stumbling Blocks: Releasing an adaptation of one of the great American pre-war novels in the middle of summer may be counter-programming genius or an act of suicide. Will the books austere reputation send the kids into the arms of Bradley Cooper et al? Selling Points: No one reinvents the past with quite as much contemporary gusto as Luhrmann. In his hands, the 1920s will make the 2010s looks like the 1730s, as the trailer will attest. The big Cannes premiere this year. Plus, the sexiest cast of 2013. Prediction: Luhrmann will be very keen to show that Australia was merely a blip. Strong reviews will start the Oscar buzz and push it towards the $95m mark, maybe higher. Indifference will kill it stone dead. Release Date 16 May.

17.

Now You See Me (Summit)

Its Like This. Heist caper. A team of illusionists tie the police in knots as they rob banks in their acts and give away all the money. Whos The Man: Jesse Eisenberg, given his first major chance to go stellar after his Oscar nominated turn in The Social Network Stumbling Blocks: Clash of The Titans and Incredible Hulk director Louis Leterrier is a safe pair of hands but is safe what this kind of movie needs? Tower Heists $78m suggests that caper movies have a limited audience. Selling Points. The trailer is intriguing. Audiences will be want to see How They Did It. A demographic straddling cast of bright young things (Eisenberg, Isla Fisher, Mlanie Laurent, Mark Ruffalo) and crowd-pleasing old timers (Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman). If the magic is there, good word of mouth will give it legs. Prediction: Magic! If its as good as it looks, this should end up at around $98m. Release date 3 July

16.

The Smurfs 2 (Columbia)

Its Like This: The first one made more money than anyone thought it would so a sequel was hastily set in motion. Smurfette is kidnapped by Gargamel (Hank Azaria) and The Smurfs team up with their new human friends (including a returning Neil Patrick Harris) to save her. Whos The Man: Sony Pictures Animation who will be desperate for a superhit since theyve already commissioned a third Smurfs film, to be released in 2015. Stumbling Blocks: Its a summer chock full of family fare and this looks like the runt of the litter, though thats what everyone said about the first one. Selling Points. Cur-UTE! Who knew that Peyos blue Belgians still had so much appeal, but the kids seem to like em. I have a six year old daughter. She REALLY wants to see this. Prediction: There isnt exactly a wellspring of affection for the first film, so expect a drop-off. That still leaves them with a pretty tasty $120m Release date 31st July

15.

After Earth (Columbia)

Its Like This. 1000 years down the line, a father and son crash (Will and Jaden Smith) land on a remote, quarantined, hostile, uninhabitable planet (no go on, guess which one). The son must venture into dangerous territory alone to save them both. Whos The Man. Jaden Smith, hoping to capitalise on the huge success of The Karate Kid. Having Dad around doesnt hurt. Stumbling Blocks. Since Lady in The Water, M. Night Shymalan has gone from weakness to weakness. Will his involvement scare the horses or does producer Will Smith know something we dont? Columbia moved the release back two weeks is that fear or courage? Tom Cruises recent Oblivion may have been enough Scorched Earth for one year. Selling Points. Shades of Avatar in the trailer, but with bigger stars and a unique father and son combo. Prediction. Shymalan hasnt been a member of the $100m club since The Village so hell be delighted. Will Smith hasnt been in the less than $120m club since Seven Pounds, so hell be disappointed. Release date 7 June

14.

The Wolverine (Fox)

Its Like This. X Man Logan AKA Wolverine (Hugh Jackman), travels to Japan to confront an old enemy and has a brush with mortality. Marvel hero goes it alone once more. Whos The Man: Jackman, headlining for the first time since being Oscar nominated in Les Miserables, which won him a brand new league of fans. Stumbling Blocks: X Men - Origins: Wolverine left a bad taste in the mouth and franchises rarely recover from poorly received entries. Could it be that Wolverine only works as a cog in a greater machine? Director James Mangold (Knight & Day) isnt a name that shouts reinvigorating. Selling Points: Jackmans stock has never been higher and Wolverine is everyones favourite X Man. The Oriental setting will help it clear up in the Far East. The last hero out of the box this summer: the main course, or the dessert everyones too full to eat? Prediction. A cool $120m, but a lukewarm reception. Released 26th July

13.

Turbo (Dreamworks)

Its Like This. Animation. A garden snail (Ryan Reynolds) dreams of becoming a racing snail. An improbable accident gives him the speed to achieve his goal and spurs him on to try and win the Indy 500. Whos The Man. Jeffrey Katzenberg. After an unprecedented winning streak for Dreamworks Animation, the wheels finally came off last Christmas when Rise of The Guardians tanked. Turbo is the CEOs first chance to prove that failure is a aberration. Stumbling Blocks. If theres one movie phenomenon that looks like its beginning to suffer from audience fatigue, its family-friendly CGI animation. There are three this summer and one is a genuine Pixar. If two is the limit, this could be the one the kids will have to wait for until the DVD comes out. Selling Points. Then again, whod be against the House of Shrek? The concept is fun; the trailers a hoot. The July 17th (US) release gives it a healthy distance from those Monsters. Prediction. At $130m, a sequel seems unlikely, but the merchandising will help soften the blow. Release date 18th October

12.

Grown-Ups 2 (Columbia)

Its Like This: Adam Sandler, Chris Rock, Kevin James and David Spade all relocate with their families to the town where they grew up. Hilarity ensues in this sequel to the 2010 original. Whos The Man. Adam Sandler, who co-wrote. Quite incredibly, this is his first sequel. Stumbling Blocks. This is a world in which guys like Sandler and Kevin James are married to girls like Salma Hayak and Maria Bello normal rules do not apply so reason and logic are worthless critical tools. That said, hastily whipped-up sequels to surprise comedy smashes City Slickers 2: The Legend of Curlys Gold; Sister Act 2: Back in The Habit dont have an especially fine pedigree. Selling Points. The original wasnt funny and made $162m. Sandler, Rock and James all have a dependable fanbase of their own which always turns out for them. Parents wont be able to take their kids to see The Hangover Part III but this is a family outing, the only live action family comedy of the summer if having Adam Sandler urinated upon by a moose constitutes family comedy. Prediction: The reviews will be dismal but the receipts will look like $150m. Release date 9 August.

11.

White House Down (Columbia)

Its like this. Paramilitary army takes over the White House and kidnaps The President. Visiting secret agent and father, Channing Tatum takes on all comers to save his boss and the country. Remake. Whos The Man. Channing Tatum. Having scored several $100m plus hits in several genres, this is his chance to go ballistic. Even the poster is built around his chiselled frame. Stumbling Blocks. Dj vu? Olympus Has Fallen opened in March but didnt meet expectations, finishing up at $90m. Selling Points. Then again, Olympus was headlined by a fading star and a director short on form. If that was Deep Impact, Columbia would be delighted for this to be their Armageddon. Director Roland Emmerich can do this kind of thing in his sleep by now. The best trailer of the summer. Prediction. A strong opening but competition will smother it at around $175m. Release date 6 September

10.

World War Z (Paramount)

Its Like This. UN investigator Brad Pitt travels the world looking for answers as a zombie pandemic threatens to wipe out mankind. From the acclaimed cult novel by Max Brooks. Whos The Man. Star and producer Brad Pitt, who is headlining a major studio blockbuster for the first time since Troy. Stumbling Blocks. This has been a tabloid-friendly disaster of a shoot - writers were replaced, the director Marc Forster reportedly usurped in the edit suite, a reshot ending and whole acts dropped at the last minute. Paramount has recently announced that this ultraviolent, gory zombie epic will be a PG-13, to the disgust of the Comic Con crowd. Bumped back from last year to give time for a new edit. Selling Points. All of the above may be true, but they were also true of Paramounts GI Joe: Retaliation, which did huge business in March. Big promotional push suggests that maybe they know what theyre doing here and are just taking their time. The trailers have got the internet salivating, whilst the debate about fast zombies reaches fever pitch. Prediction: Potentially epic, this should scare up at least $180m.

Release date 21 June

9.

Elysium (TriStar)

Its Like This. In 2154 the 1 per centers live a life of untold luxury aboard a vast space station called Elysium. The great unwashed live on earth, which has become borderline uninhabitable. Matt Damon techs up and tries to break into Elysium but Jodie Foster will try anything to stop him. Whos The Man. Director Neill Blomkamp, following up District 9 with a bigger budget and bigger stars. Stumbling Blocks. More doomed earth science fiction? Audiences will have gone through a lot of it by the time this is released in August. Doesnt sound like a bag of laughs. Selling Points. District 9 is already thought by many to be a masterpiece and this hits lots of similar beats. Damon is bigger than ever and getting Jodie Foster is always a coup. This is the one the Sci-Fi intelligentsia is really looking forward to. Prediction. If its half as good as District 9, excellent word of mouth could hand this the entire month of August. $195m Release date 20 September

8.

Fast & Furious 6 (Universal)

Its Like This: Vin Diesel is asked to put his team back together to help Dwayne Johnson catch Brit baddie Luke Evans. Cars. Lots of cars. Whos The Man: Diesel and Paul Walker who seem to have accepted the fact that no one wants to see them in anything other than Fast & Furious movies. Dwayne The Rock Johnson is now officially prescribed by doctors as a pick-me-up for ailing franchises. Stumbling Blocks. Is there a finite amount of time that kids can watch Paul Walker driving irresponsibly? Will familiarity finally breed contempt? Selling Points. Probably not. This franchise, for reasons no one can explain, seems to be bullet proof, with each entry surpassing the last in box office takings. Prediction. Fast Five made $209m. I predict a dose of fatigue creeping in but still a furious $190m. Release date 17 May

7.

Star Trek: Into Darkness (Paramount)

Its Like This. Sequel to the J.J. Abrams successful 2009 reboot. The crew of the Enterprise have to defy the Federation in order to stop a madman (Benedict Cumberbatch) who may or may not have a personal grudge against one Captain James T Kirk. Whos The Man. Director J.J. Abrams, who will be following this by skipping universes and continuing the Star Wars saga. Stumbling Blocks. The first (last, eleventh(?)) Star Trek was a big hit but four years is a long time in the movies. Has the appeal of the new-look Enterprise crew held out? Selling Points. JJ Abrams is a master at ratcheting up the intrigue while giving little away. Even now, plot details are under a tight wrap. The cast have a rare chemistry and early word has been ecstatic. Few properties have a fan base as vast and loyal as the Trekkies. Prediction. The original took $257m. In the face of stiffer competition this year, it will take a small dent - $230m Release date 9th May.

6.

The Lone Ranger (Disney)

Its Like This. City lawman John Reid, heads home to the old west but an ambush by corrupt railway baron Tom Wilkinson slays his family and leaves him for dead. He slips on a mask and fights for justice, aided by a Native American warrior with a certain pirate swagger step forward Johnny Depp as Tonto. Whos The Man. The Social Networks Armie Hammer, a relative unknown to be toplining a $250m blockbuster. If this works, he could be the new Harrison Ford (if it doesnt, he could be the new Bill Campbell). Stumbling Blocks. 2013s biggest question mark. Few movies have been mired in such public acrimony while they were still shooting. An unstoppable budget, sets destroyed by sandstorms and even the death of a crew member all added up to the juiciest on set tittle tattle since Twilight Zone: The Movie. Disney took a bath last year on John Carter, which had a similarly ancient provenance and an equally absurd budget. Selling Points. Its hard to see how a movie costing $250 can do anything but lose money. However, despite everything, the trailers and clips are suggesting a genuinely

exciting, fun action-packed family film. There are five sci-fis, four comic book movies and three big CGI kids film in the top 20, so a western is a unique prospect. All the presages of doom were there in the run up to Pirates of The Caribbean and look how that turned out. Director Gore Verbinski had a successful practice swing at this kind of material with Rango (albeit one with lizards and prairie dogs doing the acting). Disney are working through the night to make this work and if The Lone Ranger is as much fun as it looks, it could be the biggest surprise of the year. Prediction. This is my Hail Mary pass and its an optimistic one, but I predict good things: $250m. Yippee Ki Yay. Release date 9th August.

5.

Despicable Me 2 (Universal)

Its Like This. Professional arch-villain and adoptive parent Gru (Steve Carrell) is recruited into a mysterious Anti-Villain League to help them defeat Eduardo, a Mexican baddie who sounds like Al Pacino. Animated sequel to one of 2010s biggest films. Whos The Man. The Minions, Grus Golden Graham-shaped helpers who have since become iconic and have been the main focus in all the publicity. Theyve even been awarded their own spin-off movie, Minions, which comes out next year. Stumbling Blocks. By the July 3rd release date, kids will have already had their fill of CGI animation, snails, monsters and smurfs. Will it be a case of enough already? Its going head to head with The Lone Ranger the biggest chicken match of the summer. Selling Points. Nobody expected Despicable Me to be as huge as it became. Huge, and tremendously well liked to boot, this is one of those rare sequels that audiences actually demanded. All the original personnel are back on board including directors Chris Renaud and the brilliantly named Pierre Coffin. Prediction: $260m is hardly despicable. Release date 28 June.

4.

The Hangover Part III (Warners)

Its Like This. The Wolfpack reunites to help Alan (Zach Galifianakis) get over the death of his father. Mr Chow breaks out of prison and gets everyone entangled with John Goodmans mob boss. Something horrible happens to a giraffe. Comedy. Whos The Man. Oscar nominated Bradley Cooper, The Sexist Man On The Planet.

Stumbling Blocks. The Hangover Part II made even more than the first megahit, but it was practically a cover version, repeating the original beat for beat. How much of the audience felt cheated by that will be empirically evident after the first weekends grosses are in. Selling Points. The fanbase will be keen to see these guys one last time (and it is emphatically the last time). The Where are we / What happened? device has been mercifully dropped, leaving even more scope for chaos. All hands are back on deck and are anxious to go out with a bang. Prediction. In a summer light on laughs, this should clean up healthily. $275m Release date 24 May.

3.

Monsters University (Disney Pixar)

Its Like This. Cycloptic monster Mike Wazowski enrols in Monster University and dreams of becoming a scarer. Unfortunately, hes not too happy with the big blue hairy monster hes been given as a room-mate. Prequel to 2001s Monsters Inc. Whos The Man. Dan Scanlon directing only his second film and his first for Pixar. Stumbling Blocks. Following the critical and commercial failure of Cars 2, Pixar had to pick itself up and remind the world of its peerless pedigree. Despite the Oscar, Brave didnt quite live up to the gold standard. After this prequel comes another sequel, Finding Dory. Can it be that the creative juices that spawned so many masterpieces has finally dried up? The trailers havent been side-splitting exactly. Selling Points. Pixar. Its a two-syllable word that means that you and your kids are going to have the time of your life. Even off form, Pixar are the masters of this craft. The canny release of Monsters Inc 3D in March took $34m: above average for a 3D re-release and proof that affection for these 12 year old characters is still fresh. Prediction. It wont be Toy Story 3, but Id imagine a monstrous $280m return. Release date 12 July

2.

Iron Man 3 (Paramount)

Its Like This. Following the events of The Avengers in New York, Tony Stark is having a hard time adjusting. Not the best time then, for him to be attacked on two fronts: moustache-twirling geneticist Aldrich Killian (Guy Pearce) who is trying to create a race of Super Soldier and vengeful master terrorist The Mandarin (Ben Kingsley) who takes it upon himself to rid the world of Tony Stark.

Whos The Man: Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige, who has masterminded the greatest movie serial in God know how long, by hiring the right people and trusting them enough to let them play. For fans of Weird Science and Less Than Zero, it still gives one a thrill to say that by far the biggest movie star on the planet right nowis Robert Downey Jr. Stumbling Blocks. Iron Man 2 did well but it was a patchy affair that may have sullied the brand. Can we assume that it is now a known fact that people in metal suits repeatedly hitting each other has a desperately limited appeal? Selling Points. This is essentially the sequel to the billion dollar grossing Marvel Avengers which had two $100m weekends in a row and Iron Man is the goose that started laying those superhero eggs in the first place. Director Shane Black is a perfect choice and his relationship with Downey Jr (he starred in Blacks debut Kiss Kiss Bang Bang) will no doubt beget untold numbers of classic zingers. The first reviews have been highly favourable. By all accounts, Kingsley is an especially good villain. Prediction. Opening at over $100m, this wont run out of steam until it hits $300m. Release date 25 April.

1.

Man of Steel (Warners)

Its like this. Infant from the planet Krypton arrives on earth and finds it hard to keep his feet on the ground. Superman reboots! Whos The Man. Christopher Nolan, merely producing but his shadow looms large. 300 and Watchmen director Zack Snyder seems like an inspired choice. Stumbling Blocks. Everyone seems to be slowly wiping Bryan Singers Donnerworshipping Superman Returns from collective memory, but it seemed to answer a pre-release worry: can anyone take Superman seriously in this day and age? What if the answer is just plain no? Selling Points. Names like Russell Crowe and Kevin Costner in the background give this an authentic All Star Event feel. Nolans commercial and artistic instincts have a rare symbiotic brilliance. The slow-burn release of images and information has been tantalising. Michael Shannons villainous General Zod will be a baddie to plunge your teeth into and implies the kind of audience-pleasing carnage that Bryan Singer left out. Brit Henry Cavill seems ideally cast as Kal-El, and no film has ever suffered from having Amy Adams in it. Prediction. It flies. This is the big one. $325m.