Monday, April 29, 2013

Today 5,967.62 3,363.14 Point Change + 5.45 + 3.78 % Change 0.09 % p 0.11 % p

ASPI S&P SL 20 Index YTD Performance ASPI S&P SL 20 Index

Level 23, East Tower, World Trade Centre, Colombo 01 Tel: +94 11 727 7000, Fax: +94 11 727 7099 Email: research@equity.softlogic.lk

5.8% 9.0% 845.8 822.2 65.3 39.5 2,286.3 114.9 158.9 44.0 8.5

Today's Turnover (LKR mn) Annual Average Daily Turnover (LKR mn) Volume (mn) Annual Average Daily Volume (mn) Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR mn] - Foreign Buying (LKR mn) - Foreign Selling (LKR mn) YTD Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR bn]

Index traded on a volatile note

CSE Diary for 29.04.2013

The bourse trading on marginal grounds: The market activities of the Colombo Bourse were rather stagnated in the early trading session. However the index denoted a sudden dip in late trading and recovered marginally thereafter. ASPI closed at 5,967.62 with a marginal gain of 5 points. Gains recorded in Ceylon Tobacco (+2.3%), Lion Brewery (+2.1%) and Commercial Leasing and Finance (2.0%) weighted positively on the index performance. However losses in Lanka Hospital Corporation (-4.5%) and Asian Hotels and Properties (-1.4%) kept the index on the marginal ground. S&P SL20 too ended with a marginal gain of 3.8 points. Colombo Dockyard spearheaded the turnover: Colombo Dockyard spearheaded the daily turnover backed by a single off-board transaction totaling 250k shares which was dealt at LKR.220.0. The counter too denoted two large on-board

transactions of 200k shares and 130k shares at a price of LKR220.0. DOCK closed at LKR224.0 with a gain of 1.8%. Commercial Bank of Ceylon and John Keells Holdings too recorded crossings where the former transacted an off-board block of 267k shares at a price of LKR114.50 and the latter crossed 106k shares at a price of LKR249.6. Colombo Land and Development Company extended gains with Pin Bar pattern: Retail favorite; Colombo Land and Development Company extended its gains today for the ninth straight day topping todays on-board turnover list. However the counter witnessed a bearish technically called pin bar bar pattern today where it reached a high of LKR56.80 before closing at LKR52.70 with a gain of 0.8%. Improved retail activity: Heavy retail activity was seen in Touchwood Investments, Central Investment & Finance and Colombo Fort Land and Building.

Statistical Look Up
Treasury Bill (%) 3 months 6 months 12 months AWPLR Excess Liquidity (LKR 'bn) Inflation (%) Mar-13 as at 29.04.2013 YoY Change Annual Avg Week ending 26.04.2013 9.23 11.34 13.45 -25.06 7.5 8.8 10.23

6000 5900

Index

5800 5700 5600 5500

ASPI
3380 3360 3340 3320 3300 3280 3260 3240

Turnover LKR ('mn)

2,500 2,000 1,500

200.0

Volume ('mn)

150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

Index

1,000 500
0

S&P SL20

Turnover

Volume

Today All Share Price Index S&P SL20 Index Turnover (LKR mn) Turnover (USD mn) Volume (mn shares) Traded Entities Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Foreign Purchases (LKR mn) Foreign Sales (LKR mn) Net Foreign Inflow (LKR mn) Market PER (X) Market PBV (X) Market Dividend Yield SECTOR INDICES Banks, Finance & Insurance Beverage, Food & Tobacco Construction & Engineering Diversified Healthcare Hotels & Travels Land & Property Manufacturing Plantation Telecom 5,967.6 3,363.1 845.8 6.7 65.3 248 2,286.3 158.9 44.0 114.9 16.1 2.2 2.3 Today 13,628.9 16,795.1 2,766.3 1,942.3 685.2 3,477.8 567.8 2,773.8 804.4 171.1

Pre Day 5,962.2 3,359.4 1,344.4 10.6 105.5 251 2,284.2 391.8 64.2 327.6 16.1 2.2 2.3 Pre Day 13,640.2 16,614.9 2,740.3 1,942.1 691.3 3,485.5 570.0 2,762.8 810.1 171.5

Change % 0.09% p 0.11% p -37.08% -37.08% -38.08% -1.20% 0.09% -59.43% -31.51% -64.91% 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% % Change -0.08% 1.08% 0.95% 0.01% -0.89% -0.22% -0.38% 0.40% -0.71% -0.23% q p p p q q q p q q

Last Week 5,872.4 3,338.4 885.3 7.0 36.8 241 2,249.8 414.4 23.6 390.7 15.9 2.2 2.3 Last Week 13,526.1 16,409.5 2,704.4 1,916.1 639.9 3,428.2 532.6 2,671.8 803.9 169.8

% WoW Change 1.62% 0.74% -4.45% -4.45% 77.60% 2.90% 1.62% -61.64% 86.39% -70.58% 1.62% 1.62% 0.00% % WoW Change 0.76% 2.35% 2.29% 1.37% 7.07% 1.45% 6.62% 3.82% 0.07% 0.78% Page | 2.

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High Index Calibre USD350 Mn

Company
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS CEYLON TOBACCO CARSON CUMBERBATCH NESTLE LANKA SRI LANKA TELECOM COMMERCIAL BANK [V] BUKIT DARAH DIALOG AXIATA HNB [V] AITKEN SPENCE DISTILLERIES LOLC CARGILLS DFCC BANK SAMPATH BANK ASIAN HOTELS & PROPERTIES

% of Mkt Cap 9.4% 6.7% 3.9% 4.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

Volume 192,895 4,421 11,021 233 39,701 529,050 117 36,234 10,803 3,304 32,386 14,263 1,179 28,621 56,887 8,105

Turnover LKR ('000) 48,153.92 3,537.80 4,958.85 417.58 1,715.67 60,571.15 83.18 337.93 1,761.53 406.59 5,478.68 822.61 180.47 4,073.52 12,339.93 568.13

Turnover USD ('000) 379.74 27.90 39.11 3.29 13.53 477.66 0.66 2.66 13.89 3.21 43.20 6.49 1.42 32.12 97.31 4.48

Intraday Intraday High (LKR) Low (LKR) 250.00 834.90 450.00 1,800.00 43.50 114.90 724.90 9.50 164.90 124.00 173.90 59.00 153.50 143.00 217.50 71.40 249.00 800.00 440.10 1,776.00 42.80 113.80 708.10 9.30 162.70 121.50 169.00 57.00 152.10 141.60 215.20 70.00

Close 249.90 815.10 449.50 1,790.00 42.80 114.50 710.20 9.30 163.00 121.60 169.20 57.60 153.10 142.80 216.80 70.00

Price Gainers
Company
ENVI. RESOURCES [W 0006] SUNSHINE HOLDING ON'ALLY HUNAS FALLS CONVENIENCE FOOD

Price Losers
Today 2.90 29.90 52.50 61.00 216.50 Change + 0.30 + 2.80 + 4.30 + 4.60 + 16.20 % Change Company 11.54% 10.33% 8.92% 8.16% 8.09%
CEYLON LEATHER [W 0014] CITRUS WASKADUWA PARAGON SERENDIB HOTELS [X] CDB [X]

Today 4.70 7.00 901.20 17.90 30.70

Change - 0.50 - 0.70 - 88.80 - 1.60 - 2.70

% Change -9.62% -9.09% -8.97% -8.21% -8.08%

Top 05 Performers for the Day

Company
DOCKYARD COLOMBO LAND COMMERCIAL BANK TOUCHWOOD JKH

Today 220.00 52.70 114.50 7.30 249.90

Pre Day 216.20 52.30 114.10 7.70 249.50

% Change 1.76% 0.76% 0.35% -5.19% 0.16%

Volume (mn) 0.66 1.72 0.53 6.51 0.19

Contribution to Total T/O 6.4% 4.1% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1%

Turnover (LKR) 146,113,725 93,094,729 60,571,150 50,693,267 48,153,924

Most Active
Company
CIFL TOUCHWOOD S M B LEASING PIRAMAL GLASS BLUE DIAMONDS

Today 2.70 7.30 1.00 6.60 4.30

Pre Day 2.50 7.70 1.00 6.40 4.10

% Change 8.00% -5.19% 0.00% 3.12% 4.88%

Volume (mn) 13.17 6.51 5.20 3.95 2.52

Contribution to Total T/O 1.6% 2.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5%

Turnover (LKR) 35,608,697 50,693,267 5,209,743 26,351,202 10,769,048

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Currency Board
Local - Indicative Rate against LKR
Currency Australia China EU India Japan Malaysia Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore Switzerland Thailand UK USA Dollar Yuan Euro Rupee Yen Ringgit Rouble Riyal Dollar Franc Baht Pound Dollar Indicative Rate 29.04.2013 130.74 20.57 165.54 2.33 1.30 41.86 4.05 33.81 102.72 134.70 4.34 196.86 126.81

Announcements
Dividends
Company Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Company Description

DPS (LKR) 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Proportion 0

XD Date Dates 0 0 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00

XR Date

Payment Date To be notified 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00
Renunciation

Rights Issues / Scrip Dividend / Sub division / Capitalization

No Announcements 0 0 0 0 0 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900

Source: www.cbsl.gov.lk

Global Markets
Index AMERICA Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index EUROPE EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR FTSE 100 Index ASIA Nikkei 225 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
* Time is as at ET

Value 14,712.6 1,582.2 2,697.4 6,424.1 13,884.1 22,580.8

Change 11.8 -2.9 14.0 -2.3 -42.0 33.1

Change % 0.08% p -0.18% q 0.52% p -0.04% q -0.30% q 0.15% p

Time* 26-Apr 26-Apr 06:51 06:50 02:28 04:01

Source: www.bloomberg.com

Commodity Markets
Commodity ENERGY Crude Oil (Brent) Crude Oil (WTI) AGRICULTURE ICE Cotton #2 CBOT Wheat METALS COMEX Gold COMEX Silver COMEX Copper
* Time is as at ET

Units USD/bbl. USD/bbl. USd/lb. USd/bu. USD/t oz. USD/t oz. USd/lb.

Price 103.14 93.39 86.07 699.00 1,472.00 24.31 321.75

Change -0.02 0.39 1.82 6.50 18.40 0.52 3.15

Change % -0.02% q 0.42% p 2.16% p 0.94% p 1.27% p 2.17% p 0.99% p

Time* 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00

Source: www.bloomberg.com

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CSE Announcements
Introduction: Aitken Spence Plantation Managements Limited: The shares of the above Company would commence trading from 3rd May 2013 and would be classified under the Plantations sector. These shares would be listed on the Diri Savi Board.
Type Ordinary Voting Shares Security Code ASPM-N-0000 ISIN LK0421N00004 Total Number of Shares to be Listed 21,300,000

Bank of Ceylon: The Secretary, Ministry of Finance & Planning has appointed Mr. K.M.M. Siriwardana, Director General, Fiscal Policy, General Treasury as the Ex-officio Director Bank of Ceylon with effect from 24.04.2013, in place of Mr. S.R. Attygalle. Mr. R.M.A. Ratnayake has been appointed as the Alternate Director to K.M.M. Siriwardana. Dealings by Directors
Company Pan Asia Banking Coporation [PABC: LKR21.0] Name Mr. W.D.N. H. Perera Relationship Transaction Quantity Price (LKR) Director Purchase 1,176,786 20.0-21.0 Date 24.04.13-26.04.13

Local News
Sri Lanka tourist arrivals up 11.6% in February: Tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka rose 11.6% in February 2013 to 93,232 from a year earlier, helped by gains in Europe and East Asia, official data showed. Arrivals from Western Europe rose 13.7% to 43,635 with Britain growing 26.1% to 11,031 and Germany up 8.1% to 8,276. Arrivals from France rose 4.0% to 6,632, Netherlands was up 1.1% to 3,020 and Switzerland was up 27.1% to 2,980. Visitors from Eastern Europe rose 17% to 7,218 with Russian arrivals up 9.6% to 3,286 and from Ukraine 2,788 up 38.7%. Visitors from the Middle East rose 5.8% to 3,887. East Asian arrivals rose 22.7% to 12,589 led by an 89.1% increase in Chinese visitors followed by Japan at 2,676 up 14.1%. Sri Lanka's tourist authorities and the industry have been pushing for more tourists from China. In the first two months Chinese arrivals were up 57.9% to 6,145 from a year earlier. Malaysian visitors rose 27.9% to 1,973 while tourists from Singapore dropped 23% to 1,030 and those from Taiwan fell 67% to 262. Korean visitors also dropped 23.7% to 492. South Asian visitors rose only 2.5% to 15,897, with India Sri Lanka's largest generating dropping 1.8% to 11,139. [Source: www.lbo.lk] 1Q tea exports value up, volume down: The countrys tea exports in the first quarter saw an increase value wise though in terms of quantity shipped was lower. Total tea exports amounted to LKR42.28 bn in the first three months of this year, up by near 6% from LKR40 bn a year earlier. Approximate average unit FOB value per kilo was LKR595.85 up by 13% or LKR68 from LKR527.92 in the first quarter of last year. Volume wise, exports amounted to 71 mn kilos, down by 4.9 mn kilos or 6% in comparison to first quarter of last year. Exports of tea in bulk (LKR16 bn), packets (LKR18.5 bn) and green tea (LKR1.5 bn) saw increase in value wise over last year whilst tea in bags (LKR6 bn) instant tea (LKR336 mn) were marginally down in 2013 first quarter. However the three categories showed increase in their average FOB price per kilo, all above LKR1,000 per kilo levels. Average price of other teas too rose. [Source: www.ft.lk] Planters look to trade union, worker cooperation to up productivity: The Planters Association of Ceylon states that the latest plantation worker wage increase could ensure a monthly income of at least LKR15,500 per person and called for trade union and worker co-operation to increase productivity and efficiency. The daily wage package was increased by 20% from LKR515 to LKR620. The wage increase will cause the cost of production of tea to escalate to its highest levels ever by an increase of LKR40 per kilogram effective from 1 April this year. Sri Lankas cost of production of tea is the highest in the world. The Planters Association that Softlogic Equity Research Page | 5
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represents the Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) which subscribed to the new wage hike, have called for improved productivity and efficiency, stating them as a must to mitigate the wage increase, which would erode profit margins of tea. Planters Association Chairman Lalith Obeyesekere emphasised the need for highest cooperation from trade unions and workers. The new wage package could be a win situation for the worker, he noted. The payment for a minimum 25 days work would enable a single worker to earn a minimum of LKR15,500 per month. A family of three would have a monthly household income of around LKR45,000. This is in addition to the non-wage benefits of free housing, child care, health and education that are provided to all plantation families, Obeyesekere added. [Source: www.ft.lk] Perceived Economic Opportunity Index improves in March: The Perceived Economic Opportunity Index (PEOI) recorded a slight yet welcome increase for March after falling for three consecutive months. The index compiler, Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka (FEFSL) said the uptick to 1.64 comes after the index registered its lowest point of 1.56 in February. Without any significant bad news on the economic front and with traditional April holiday shopping taking place during the first week of April when the survey was conducted and perhaps also buoyed by the fact that the currency having appreciated; the fall in optimism seemed to have taken a breather, FEFSL said. The question now is whether this uptick is a temporary phenomenon or if it is taking on a new positive path. Given that the PEOI is well below the midpoint of 2 and very much in to the relatively pessimistic territory there needs to be a significant rise in the PEOI to reflect a mood shift from pessimism to optimism, it added. [Source: www.ft.lk] Rishad, CEB start work on Lankas industrial power costs: Sri Lankas industrialists who flocked to Industry and Commerce Ministry on Friday, urged the CEB to become more efficient and consider alternative sources. Interestingly, they commended the Industry Ministry for the ongoing support in getting them connected to the high power grid. We shall be starting a series of industrialist-CEB consultations immediately on power efficiency and costs so that our industry sector can overcome the latest surge, Minister of Industry and Commerce said. The latest tariff hike on the Lankas industrial sector is a flat 15% for all categories which is lesser than the rate hike in the domestic sector which is minimum 25% and 40% at maximum. Industrialists, who were in talks with Bathiudeen, belonged to all the three categories. Bulk electricity consumers are represented in Categories I-2 and I-3 and both use Time of Use Tariffs. Of the 50,668 industrial electricity in 2011s accounts, 91% belonged to I-1, though when it came to consumption, I-1 reported only 8% of total consumption while I-2 lead with 53% of the total 3,398 GW hours used by all industrial categories in 2011. Sri Lanka plans to have an additional 1,755 MW power generation through the projects of Puttalam Phase 2 (2014), Trincomalee Stage 1, Broadland Hydro and Uma Oya Hydro (2016), Trincomalee Stage 2 (2017) and rest of Trincomalee Stage 2 (2018), respectively. [Source: www.ft.lk] SriLankan Airlines to boost cargo, cut costs with new Airbus aircraft: State-run SriLankan Airlines expects to boost freight volumes especially on long haul flights as well as cut running costs, with the acquisition of 13 wide-body Airbus aircraft, chief executive Kapila Chandrasena said. SriLankan will replace six A340 aircraft which are up to 18 years old and seven A330-200 aircraft with six A330-300 aircraft and seven A350-900 aircraft. Four will be acquired from Airbus and three from a leasing company. The newer aircraft will be more fuel efficient allowing costs savings in the region of 7% to 10% even after financing costs of acquisition, depending on the route flown, he said. As an aircraft gets older they become more expensive to operate and maintain but new models also incorporate technology that cut costs. Airbus has said the maximum take-off weight of the A330 has also been increased from 2012. The A350-900 aircraft in particular promises a 25% cut in operating costs according to its manufacturer Airbus. It is made of 53% composite material with a carbon fiber reinforced plastic fuselage. SriLankan has been boosting passenger factor, or the amount of seats filled as a share of total available, but at the expense of cargo on long haul flights. With the new aircraft no compromises on cargo would be needed. The A350 will be deployed on long-haul routes to Europe and Japan. [Source: www.lbo.lk]

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Global News
Euro-Area Economic Confidence Declines More Than Forecast: Economic confidence in the euro area decreased more than economists forecast in April as the 17- nation currency bloc struggled to emerge from a recession and the bailout of Cyprus renewed debt-crisis concerns. An index of executive and consumer sentiment dropped to 88.6 from a revised 90.1 in March, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Thats the lowest since December. Economists had forecast a decline to 89.3, according to the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Business confidence and investor sentiment in Germany, Europes largest economy, dropped more than expected in April. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on April 19 that the economic situation in the bloc hadnt improved since the beginning of the month. At the same time, Draghi expects the economy to recover from a recession later this year and economists forecast growth in the second quarter, a separate Bloomberg survey shows. The flawed bailout in Cyprus has revived uncertainty in Europe, said Annamaria Grimaldi, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in Milan. But I think the concerns are only temporary and we will see modest growth in the second half of this year. [Source: www.bloomberg.com] China Industrial Profit Growth Slows as Economic Recovery Wanes: Growth in Chinese industrial companies profits slowed in March, adding to evidence the nations economic recovery is losing steam. Net income increased 5.3% from a year earlier to 464.9 bn yuan (USD75 bn), down from a 17.2% pace in the first two months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website on April 27. Profit in the first quarter rose 12.1% to 1.17 trillion yuan, it said. Profits are only growing in line with sales and with problems of overcapacity and the sluggish global picture, it doesnt bode well for a speedy return to higher profit margins, said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong. Heavy industries especially still face destocking and higher costs, but if there is a silver lining, industries catering to the consumer, like textiles, food and beverages, seem to be doing much better. [Source: www.bloomberg.com]

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