Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Project Work by Kevin Mersch

E-mail: merschk@ethz.ch

05.12.2011 Supervisor: Dr. P. Molnar

Beiblatt zu jeder an der ETH Zrich verfassten schriftlichen Arbeit

Ich erklre mit meiner Unterschrift, das Merkblatt Plagiat (vgl. http://www.ethz.ch/students/semester/plagiarism_s_de.pdf) zur Kenntnis genommen, die vorliegende Arbeit selbstndig verfasst und die im betroffenen Fachgebiet blichen Zitiervorschriften eingehalten zu haben.

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26.04.10 / NB

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Abstract
Mean daily streamow records from 39 watersheds in Switzerland with a mostly undisturbed runo regime are analysed for trends with the MannKendall nonparametric test in three study periods (1970-1990, 1980-2000, 1990-2010). The statistical signicance of trends is tested for each station on a seasonal basis and for dierent streamow quantiles at a 10% signicance level. Identied trends in streamow are examined and correlated with watershed attributes. Complex changes in the streamow regime in Switzerland especially in the more recent periods have been identied, especially in autumn and winter. Particularly the most recent period (1990-2010) experiences a considerable shift from high towards low ows for every quantile in autumn and winter. The increasing trend of spring ows is experiencing a decaying development over the three analysed periods. Summer ows exhibit a decreasing trend, especially in magnitude. Behaviour in the summer period is dierent, indicating both upward and downward trends. Substantial dierences in trends depending on mean basin altitude couldnt be identied for any season but summer, where stations located between 1000m and 2000m experience increasing trends which stand in opposition to stations from higher or lower elevations. Winter median ow of watersheds without glacier remain unchanged, while basins with glaciers face downward trends. Correlation between mean watershed elevation and trends is strongly dependent on season and quantile. Correlation analyses reveal moderate relationships between streamow trends and mean basin elevation and glacier coverage. Autumn and summer show negative correlation for low ows, resp. moderate ows. In winter high ows show a good correlation with magnitude of trend. Trends are present in every period for high and low ows. Magnitude depends on period and season of interest. Results suggest that, regardless of the type of environment of watersheds, all basins are subject to streamow change, specically in the last 20 years.

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Contents
1. Introduction 2. Data 3. Methods 3.1. Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2. Theil-Sen slope estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3. Spearman rank correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. Results 4.1. Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2. Dierences in altitude . . . . . . 4.3. Correlation with basin attributes 4.4. Open Quetions . . . . . . . . . . 5. Conclusions 6. Acknowledgements Literature A. Appendix A A.1. Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A.1.1. Basin Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . A.2. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A.2.1. Slope estimate results . . . . . . . . . . A.2.2. Mann-Kendall relative frequency results A.2.3. Altitude groups results . . . . . . . . . . A.2.4. Glacier cover results . . . . . . . . . . . A.2.5. Spearman rank correlation results . . . A.3. Additional Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 11 11 12 13 14 14 18 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 31 31 33 35 39 42 46 50 50 53

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B. Appendix B B.1. Main Matlab Program for Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen . . . . . . . . . . . . . B.2. Main Matlab Program for Representative Discharge . . . . . . . . . . . . .

List of Figures
1. Representative Discharge [mm/season] for all season of q50 streamow averaged over all stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

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5 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.

Streamow Trends in Switzerland Representative discharge [mm/year] for all season of q50 streamow averaged over all stations and grouped by station altitude. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative frequencies of high( +) and low(-) ows over all stations for all quantiles and for every period. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Slope estimate for all quantiles and for every period. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Slope estimate [mm/season] and standard deviation for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to altitude for the period 1990-2010. . . . . . Relative frequencies for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to altitude for the period 1990-2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative frequencies for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to glacier cover for the period 1990-2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spearman rank correlation coecients for mean basin altitude and estimated slope (a) and MK Z statistic (b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Representative Discharge [mm/season] for all season of q90 streamow averaged over all stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Representative discharge [mm/year] for all season of q90 streamow averaged over all stations and grouped by station altitude. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Estimated slopes [mm/season] and standard deviation for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to glacier cover for the period 1990-2010. . . . Spearman rank correlation coecients of relative glacier cover and estimated slope (a) and MK Z statistic (b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10 15 16 18 19 20 21 46 47 48 49

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

1. Introduction
Trend detection in records of hydroclimatic variables (e.g. air temperature, precipitation, streamow) contributes signicantly to the on-going debate on climate change. So far the focus of research was on temperature and precipitation rather than on streamow, giving reason to investigate the latter variable more closely. Records show general increase of temperature (and precipitation) [(M. Beniston u. Marinucci, 1994)], which have been related to climate change eects. The question arises, if these trends can also (already) be detected in streamow data and again, if these trends can be related to climate change. It is still not clear if and how changes in air temperature and precipitation manifests itself in streamow. Before this can be investigated, it is rst necessary to analyse how streamow regimes have changed. From the water resources management perspective persisting trends in streamow are great importance, particularly trends of extreme events. Below in gure 1 a representative chart on runo over the last forty years is shown. A trend is not obviously detectable with the bear eye; so statistical tools need to be considered to get a more predicative picture. What can be noticed clearly is the high variation in runo magnitude from one season to the other.

Figure 1: Representative Discharge [mm/season] for all season of q50 streamow averaged over all stations. The big dierence between temperature, precipitation and streamow is that streamow is an integrated variable over a watershed. This means that the inuence of the rst two hydroclimatic variables, which are both point measurements, should to a certain degree be

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

noticeable in the integrated value, namely streamow. Further disadvantage of the rst two variables is the high spatial and temporal variability, which can hamper detection of regional trends. Switzerland covers an area of 41,284 km2 of which about two thirds is forest and agricultural land. Altitude ranges from 193 m (Lago Maggiore) to 4,634 m (Monte Rosa) and mean annual precipitation reaches about 1480 mm while mean annual runo is about 960 mm (Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland, 19611980). In terms of water resources, 63% of the surface water supplies are stored in natural lakes, 35% in glaciers and the remaining 2% in articial lakes. Switzerland lies in four large European watersheds: the Rhine River, draining into the North Sea, the Rhone and Po Rivers, draining into the Mediterranean Sea, and the Inn which eventually drains into the Black Sea. The data and methods are described in Section 2 and 3. Section 4 lists the main results according to the goals of this project work: rst observed streamow trends are investigated, then a correlation analysis between watershed attributes and observed streamow trends is conducted. Last some open questions are identied. Finally, the main conclusions are summarized in Section 5.

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

2. Data
Data sources
The analysis of streamow trends is conducted with data from 39 stations spread around the whole of Switzerland. All these stations provide records of mean daily streamow ranging from 1970 to 2010. More stations were available depending on the period of analysis (52 in total). However, to be consistent in calculations, only stations that provided records over the whole of the above-mentioned period were considered. As former trend analysis of streamow show, trend signicance is strongly dependent on ow magnitude and thus season [Pavel Ya. Groisman u. Karl (2001), (D. P. Lettenmaier, 1991)]. Considering the facts on Switzerland mentioned in the previous section, snow and ice melt are important contributors to runo seasonality. Streamow trend analysis on an annual basis might conceal important information through averaging compared to a seasonal basis [M. Beniston u. Marinucci (1994), M.-V. Birsan (2005)]. Hence, seasonality was taken into account by dening four climatological seasons and analysing them separately (Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter): Table 1: Denition of season Season Months Spring March - May Summer June - August Autumn September - November Winter December - January division nr of Days 92 92 91 90

After this, daily streamows were not analysed directly, but data records were split into 3 periods of each 20 years with 10 overlapping years. This length of period seems to be adequate to capture trends without getting too much variability, which could complicate interpretation. In this project work shifts in the distribution of daily data are of interest, so the test is applied to quantiles determined at the seasonal timescale. The deciles of streamows as well as minimum and maximum runo were computed to minimise data load without losing to much representatitivity. The seasonal qquantile xq (i) of the mean daily ow X is obtained for every season (year) i as the value for which P r(X < x) = q . For instance, the q20-value of a station is the runo for which 20% of all mean daily ows for the given season are below this value. To sum up, in order to identify shifts in the distribution of mean daily streamow, a range of 11 quantiles on seasonal bases (qM IN , qM AX , and q 10, q 20...q 90) were studied for three dierent observation periods. The analysis methods are standard: Mean daily runo is analysed for trends with the MannKendall nonparametric trend test and the TheilSen slope estimator (both presented in the next section).

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Streamow data used in this work were high resolution records of mean daily discharge. The three main criteria for station selection [M.-V. Birsan (2005)] were: no substantial inuence by water withdrawals for hydropower or other water-use purposes spatial independence between station records at least 30 years of continuous and complete observations Spatial independence for stations located along the same river was ensured by always choosing the upstream station. This oers a good compromise between the assumed independence of station records and a relatively high number of stations [(M.-V. Birsan, 2005)].

Alititude groups
In Switzerland 52% of its area lies above 1000 m.a.s.l. and 23% above 2000 m. From a hydrological perspective, Switzerland can be divided into three distinct runo regimes types: Alpine, Midland-Jura, and Southern Alpine (Aschwanden (1985)). So, to get a more detailed picture, the stations were grouped according to the mean altitude of the corresponding basin, so that they could be compared among each other. Furthermore, the groups were also compared to trends observed by computing all available stations. In appendix A.1.1 basin attributes and number of stations for each group are listed. For the period from 1990-2010 dierences according to station altitude were analysed in terms of slope estimate and relative frequency. To lower data load only two runo quantiles were looked at, namely q50 and q90.

Glacier cover
In addition to grouping stations by elevation, they are also divide into a group which present glacier cover and a group which doesnt. Surely both attributes are quite similar and correlated to certain extent. This classication will likely reveal interesting facts, as basins that have an Alpine inuence reach a maximum seasonal runo in spring and summer. This analysis shall also only consider the 2 quantiles used in the altitude groups from year 1990 to 2010. Figure 2 shows the same runo data as gure 1, but with gauging stations grouped according to the mean elevation of the corresponding watershed. It highlights that the diences in ow magnitude related to seasonality is strongly dependent on altitude. The runo from basins above 2000m uctuates considerably compared to the other those of lower stations.

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Figure 2: Representative discharge [mm/year] for all season of q50 streamow averaged over all stations and grouped by station altitude. . For altitude, three groups were formed (0-1000m, 1000-2000m and >2000m), and for glacier cover only two (not glacier covered and partly glacier covered). Neither precipitation nor temperature data were considered, as this work should focus only on the output of the rainfall runo system. Another reason is the relative abundance of assessments on these particular values compared to runo data. (Representative discharge of the q90 streamow can be found in appendix A.3).

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3. Methods
Two dierent statistical tools were used to analyse if streamow data presented any trends. First, nonparametric slope estimation was used to get an idea of the magnitude of trends throughout the time series. Also, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test was employed to give the estimated slopes a statistical signicance. Simple but robust and distribution-free tools were preferred. As serial correlation was mostly avoided by dividing data according to seasons, no pre-whitening was applied to data to discriminate trends from stochastic uctuations and the inuence of serial correlation.

3.1. Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test

Trend analysis in this project work was conducted with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. This test has been widely used in hydrological studies. It is distribution-free, robust against outliers, and has a higher power than many other commonly used tests [Hess (2001)]. The test, suitable for non-normally distributed data with non-linear trends, should be applied to uncorrelated data [Helsel u. Hirsch (2002)]. Computation of the MK trend test statistic Z and the identication of statistically signicant trends are explained hereafter. The MK test is applied to time series of xq (i) with q = 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9; and also to the seasonal minimum xmin (i) and maximum xmax (i), where i = 1, ..., n years. Statistically signicant trends are generally reported at the 10% signicance level (Z/2 = 0.1, two-tailed test). In this study the same signicance level will be used to minimize type II errors. The null and the alternative hypothesis of the MK test for trend in the random variable x are: H0 : P r(xj > xi ) = 0.5, HA : P r(xj > xi ) = 0.5, j > i, (twosided test)

The Mann-Kendall statistic S is calculated as

n1 n

S=
k=1 j =k+1

sgn(xj xk )

(1)

where xj and xk are the data values in years the sign function: 1, if 0, if sgn(x) = 1, if

j and k, respectively, with j > k. sgn() is xj xk > 0 xj xk = 0 xj xk < 0

(2)

Under the null hypothesis the distribution of S can be approximated well by a normal

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2 given by: distribution (large sample sizes n), with mean S and variance S m 2 S = n(n 1)(2n + 5) i=1

S = 0,

ti (i)(i 1)(2i + 5) /18

(3)

This equation yields the variance of S with a correction for ties in data, with ti denoting the number of ties of extent i. The standard normal variate is used for hypothesis testing, called the MK trend test statistic Z. S 1 S , if S < 0 0, if S = 0 (4) Z= S +1 S < 0. S , if For a two-tailed test, the null hypothesis is rejected at signicance level (Type I error) if |Z | > Z/2 , where Z/2 is the value of the standard normal distribution with an exceedance probability /2. Relative frequencies presented in the results section are obtained simply by dividing the number of Z values for which |Z | > Z/2 applies by the total number of stations. Low and high ows are reported separately. So, the relative frequency for a given ow quantile indicates the percentage of stations that prsent a statistical signicant trend of of high or low ows.

3.2. Theil-Sen slope estimate

The TheilSen slope estimator is a method for robust linear regression that chooses the median slope among all lines through pairs of two-dimensional sample points. It is a nonparametric method suitable for a nearly linear trend [Helsel u. Hirsch (2002)], and it is more robust than the least-squares estimator because it is much less sensitive to outliers, meaning that it can tolerate arbitrary corruption of up to 29.3% of the input data-points without degradation of its accuracy. It can be signicantly more accurate than simple linear regression and competes well against simple least squares even for normally distributed data [Wikipedia] . The slope is computed between all pairs i of the variable x: i = (j = 2, ..., n; k = 1, ..., n 1) where i = 1...N . For n values in the time series x this will result in N = n(n 1)/2 values of . The slope estimate b is the median of bi , i = 1...N . xj xk , jk with j>k (5)

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3.3. Spearman rank correlation

The nonparametric rank-based Spearman correlation coecient was used to report the results of correlation analyses. Spearmans is a nonparametric rank-based correlation coecient used to estimate the monotone association between two random variables. If Y tends to increase when X increases, the Spearman correlation coecient is positive. If Y tends to decrease when X increases, the Spearman correlation coecient is negative. When X and Y are perfectly monotonically related, the Spearman correlation coecient becomes 1. It is computed from the dierence d between the ranks of independently sorted variables x and y [Kottegoda (2008)] : =1
2 6 n i=1 d n(n2 1)

(6)

Under the null hypothesis of no correlation between x and y , the distribution of can be 2 given by: approximated by a normal distribution with mean and variance = 0,
2 = 1/(n 1)

(7)

The random variables x and y are considered correlated at the signicance level if || > Z/2 / n 1 for a two-tailed test. = 0.1 was chosen for the analysis. The causal aspects of identied trends in streamow were investigated by correlation analyses with 2 basin attributes: mean altitude of the basin and percentage of glacier cover.

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4. Results
The main results are reported in three sections. First, trends in streamow are analysed for dierent seasons and quantiles. Then, dierences between groups with dierent station altitudes and glacier cover are investigated. Thereafter, relationships between trends and basin attributes are explored. Ultimately, some open questions are identied and discussed briey.

4.1. Trends
As pointed out earlier, choice of study period length is important because it has an impact on trend identication. If a large scale periodic behaviour is present in the records, the length of analysis period should be chosen in a way that it spans one or more cycles of this process. A 20 year period is assumed to contain low and high ow periods and therefore identitied trends should not result from lowfrequency largescale behaviour in the recorded data. Also, as can be seen in the graphs below, changes in runo have a strong seasonal dependence and should therefore be considered separately. Mann-Kendall Relative frequencies of high and low ows were investigated. In gure 3 up and down trends are shown for every season and period. Spring: In the rst period high ows are relatively frequent. Up to 40% of the stations manifest high ows for all quantiles. However, in the following two periods the frequencies of high ows exhibit a subsiding development, especially for the lower quantiles. On the other hand, frequencies of low ows tend to increase over the three periods. Still, in the most recent period quantiles above the median ow (q50) dont display statistically signicant low ows. Summer: In this season there is little change over all periods, except for the frequencies of low ows from 1980-2000. It seems that the summer of this period had particularly frequent low ows. Taken aside this fact, there is no strong signicant up- or downward trend indicated by the MannKendall test. Autumn: Autumn shows a similar picture as summer, with the dierence that in this season an increase of frequent low ows occurs in the last period. Interestingly, the frequencies of low ows for the middle period dont follow those of the previous season. Even high ows frequencies are more numerous after a relative dry summer.

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(a) Spring

(b) Summer

(c) Autumn

(d) Winter

Figure 3: Relative frequencies of high( +) and low(-) ows over all stations for all quantiles and for every period. Winter: The rst two periods reveal a rising number of high ows in winter. And yet, the last period presents the opposite situation. Frequencies of low ows have increased considerably whereas high ows have practically vanished. This can be an indication of an important shift of streamow regime for the winter season.

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16 Theil-Sen slope estimate

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Results for the Theil-Sen slope estimate for each season are shown below in gure 4.

(a) Spring

(b) Summer

(c) Autumn

(d) Winter

Figure 4: Slope estimate for all quantiles and for every period.

Spring: In the rst period (1970-1990) spring ows show an increasing trend for all streamow quantiles. The two following periods also demonstrate an increasing trend, but of lower magnitude. The other 2 periods show a reduced increase and even a decrease for the lower quantiles. Summer: Summer ows clearly exhibit decreasing trends in all periods and for all quantiles, except for the maximum ow in the last period. In general the maximum ow in summer is due to heavy rainstorm events, so for the overall picture one can argue that summer ows are actively decreasing.

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Autumn: Autumn ows present relatively small changes in the rst two periods. Again, there is a signicant decrease in the most recent period. Put another way, this most likely is an indication of a change in the runo regime. Winter: Winter season pictures a faint upward trend in the rst two periods for all quantiles but maximum ow. Similarly to autumn, the trend is inverted in the last period and for all quantiles (including maximum ow). Indeed, even the maximum ows in winter have substantially fallen from an extreme upward trend to a high decreasing trend. Accordingly, this again gives reason to presume a change in the winter streamow regime. Frequencies and magnitude Looking at both frequency and magnitude together, the following can be said: Spring ows show an increasing trend in both the MannKendall test and the slope estimate. Moreover both also signal a subsiding development of this trend. The MK test suggests that in summer, occurrence of high and low ows are more or less balanced in every period (except for low ows in the middle period), but the slope estimate clearly reveals a decreasing trend. In summer period from 1990-2010, the maximum ow has a substantial increase but with a relative low frequency. Also, the frequencies of low ows are higher than those of high ows (except for qM IN , q 10, q 20). In each period low ows outnumber high ones in summer, yielding a decreasing trend in runo. A clear change is noticeable for the most recent period in both MK test and TheilSen estimate. In other words, frequencies of low ows have risen and slope estimates sketch out a decrease in ow magnitude over all quantiles. Trends of streamow in winter trace a similar, maybe even more pronounced, picture as in autumn. In this season, from 1990-2010, not only frequencies of low ows have risen, but frequencies of high ows have fall at the same time. Also the slope estimate has switched from a weak increasing to a decreasing trend.

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4.2. Dierences in altitude

For the period from 1990-2010, dierences according to station altitude were analysed in terms of slope (g. 5) and relative frequency (g. 6). To lower data load only two runo quantiles were looked at, namely q50 and q90.

Figure 5: Slope estimate [mm/season] and standard deviation for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to altitude for the period 1990-2010. In spring, all 3 groups show an increasing slope. The summer season is most heterogeneous with decreasing trends for low and high altitude stations, but an increasing slope for stations located between 1000m and 2000m. Autumn and winter both signal a decreasing trend for both quantiles. These graphs also show that if a trend is visible (increases or decreases), it tends to be a more pronounced for the higher quantile q90 (except for summer). While this is true, there is no clearly discernible trend related to the mean elevation of the watershed when looking at both quantiles.

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Comparing the slope trends with the relative frequencies of high and low ows, reveals that the trends (slopes) found are endorsed by the Mann-Kendall test. Where spring displays a positive trend for every altitude, high ows are common whereas low ows are lacking. The previously identied decreasing slope in autumn is matched by frequent low ows. Particularly in winter for the 90 percent quantile, where slopes are slightly falling, low ows are quite frequent. This indicates that large runo (q90) in winter is decreasing in magnitude and occur more seldom. To sum up, the mean altitude of a watershed does not play a signicant role for streamow regime alteration. Stations from all three altitude groups exhibit similar behaviour when compared to each other.

Figure 6: Relative frequencies for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to altitude for the period 1990-2010.

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Glacier presence
To further investigate any relation between basin attributes and change in runo regime, station records were divided into 2 groups depending on whether they presented glacier cover or not. For these two groups, only the frequencies of high and low ows were considered. The results are shown in gure 7 .

Figure 7: Relative frequencies for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to glacier cover for the period 1990-2010. Relative frequencies from both groups coincide most often. In summer, stations with no glacier dont display any trend. In winter stations with glacier cover indicate a decreasing trend for both quantiles, whereas the other group only exhibits a downward trend for q90. This means that basins with glaciers are facing overall frequent low ows, while basins without only experience this trend for large runo. The median ow of the latter stations is undisturbed. As seen earlier with elevation, no obvious relation of trend with glacier presence is detectable.

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4.3. Correlation with basin attributes

In the graphs below (gure8) it is clear that correlation exists, but depends on season and quantile. However for smaller quantiles in winter there mostly is no statistically signicant correlation between mean basin altitude and estimated slope. From the methods section, one can calculate that for a 10% signicance level and 39 stations, basin attributes and trend are considered correlated if || > 0.27.

(a)

(b)

Figure 8: Spearman rank correlation coecients for mean basin altitude and estimated slope (a) and MK Z statistic (b)

Correlation with estimated slope Positive correlation can be seen for high quantiles in Winter. Summer shows a negative correlation for moderate ows. Lower quantiles correlate negatively for autumn. Spring has no proper tendency. Correlation with Mann-Kendall Z statistic No really signicant correlation can be seen for all quantiles in Winter. The other three seasons are similar to the correlation with estimated slopes. In summer altitude correlates for moderate ows. Lower quantiles correlate well for autumn. Again, spring has no clear tendency, displaying positive and negative correlations both for high and low ows.

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The Spearman rankbased correlation was also computed for glacier cover.Those correlation charts between glacier cover and streamow trends can be found in appendix A.3. Results are comparable to those of mean basin altitude.

4.4. Open Quetions

As stated earlier, there seems to be a change in streamow regime in at least 2 out of 4 seasons (autumn and winter), especially for when comparing the most recent period with the two previous ones. Now that changes have been identied, the question arises what these changes are due to and if in future these shifts will also be detectable in spring and summer. Several things have to be investigated: The assumption that a 20 year period suciently captures any large-scale periodicity should be investigated. As pointed out by (P Pekarova, 2006) dry cycles of 13.5 and 28-29 years have been identied (see also P Pekarova (2003)). Another issue is to assert that these changes are not due to anthropogenic factors nor emphasised by these. It is arguably nearly impossible to exclude anthropogenic inuences altogether. If land use (and therfore land cover) changes in some of the analysed basins this can have inuenced the streamow regime. Also changes in the uvial systems should be taken into account. The time scale, on which these eects occur from external factors, could give an indication on whether they inuence trends or not. we expect that most of the (natural) watershed changes occur on much longer timescales than those studied here, we recognise that they do contribute to hydrological variability Precipitation and air temperature data (focussing on days with minimum daily temperature above melting point) might explain some of the observed trends. Do changes in runo properly reect the input to a rainfall-runo system, namely precipitation. Changes in net glacier balance should be analysed together with identied trends to assess whether there is a relationship between both that can be due to climate change. For instance, glacier retreat will have an impact on land cover which again will impact runo.

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

5. Conclusions
This project work presents a statistical analysis of trends in mean daily streamow records from 39 watersheds in Switzerland with a mostly undisturbed runo regime for three study periods (1970-1990, 1980-2000 and 1990-2010). Estimate of trend magnitude and statistically signicant trends were computed for each station on a seasonal basis and for dierent streamow quantiles. Identied trends in streamow were correlated with watershed attributes. The main conclusions are as follows: Trends are present in every period as well for high and low ows. Magnitude depends on period and season of interest. Particularly the last period (1990-2010) experiences a signicant increase of lower ows in Winter for every quantile. This suggests that winters are becoming increasingly dryer over the last 20 years. In the winter season there is a considerable shift of frequent high ows to frequent low ows in the last period of analysis (1990-2010). The increasing trend of Spring ows is experiencing a decaying development over the three analysed periods. Summer ows exhibit a decreasing trend, particularly in magnitude. Autumn also reveals a shift in the last period. A decreasing trend in magnitude matches an increase of statistical signicant low ows from 1990-2010. Winter ows also show a substantial shift in the last period similar to the autumn season. In Addition to a rising number of low ows, the season presents only very few high ows. There was no discernible dependence of trends related to the mean elevation of the analysed watersheds. Basins lacking presence of glacier dont show any trend. Particularly in winter median ow of watersheds without glacier remains unchanged, while basins with glaciers face downward trends for both q50 and q90. This trend should be followed closely if it persists, because it can give an indication on what is happening to precipitation in higher altitudes. Correlation between mean watershed elevation and trends is strongly dependent on season and quantile. No signicant correlation was found in spring. Autumn and summer show negative correlation for low ows, resp. moderate ows. In winter high ows show a good correlation with magnitude of trend (estimated slope).

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24

Streamow Trends in Switzerland The altitude groups followed the same trend patterns as the ones found when computing trends from all the available stations.

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Streamow Trends in Switzerland

6. Acknowledgements
Thanks for the data I received from the Federal Oce for the Environment (FOEN or BAFU in german). Thanks to my supervisor Dr. Peter Molnar, who patiently guided me through this project work. Special Thanks to the 2 anonymous reviewers, who helped to improve this report.

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26

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

References
[Aschwanden 1985] Aschwanden, Weingartner R. H.: Runo Regimes in Switzerland. Pub. Gew asserkunde, 1985 [D. P. Lettenmaier 1991] D. P. Lettenmaier, Eric F. W. JAMES R. WALLIS W. JAMES R. WALLIS: A Daily Hydroclimatological Data Set for the Continental United States. In: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (1991) [Helsel u. Hirsch 2002] Helsel, D.R. ; Hirsch, R.M.: Resources. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, 2002 Statistical Methods in Water

[Hess 2001] Hess, Iyer H. Malm W. A.: Linear trend analysis: a comparison of methods. In: Atmospheric Environment (2001), 10 [Kottegoda 2008] Kottegoda, Rosso R. N.T.: Statistics, Probability, and Reliability for Civil and Environmental Engineers. Bd. 2nd edition. Wiley-Blackwell, 2008 [M. Beniston u. Marinucci 1994] M. Beniston, F. G. M. Rebetez R. M. Rebetez ; Marinucci, M. R.: An Analysis of Regional Climate Change in Switzerland. In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology (1994) [M.-V. Birsan 2005] M.-V. Birsan, P. Burlando M. P. P. Molnar M. P. Molnar: Streamow trends in Switzerland. In: Journal of Hydrology (2005) [P Pekarova 2003] P Pekarova, J. P. P. Miklanek M. P. Miklanek: Spatial and temporal runo oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th20th centuries. In: Journal of Hydrology (2003) [P Pekarova 2006] P Pekarova, J. P. P. Miklanek M. P. Miklanek: Long-term trends and runo uctuations of European rivers. In: Climate Variability and ChangeHydrological Impacts (2006) [Pavel Ya. Groisman u. Karl 2001] Pavel Ya. Groisman, Richard W. K. ; Karl, Thomas R.: Heavy Precipitation and High Streamow in the Contiguous United States: Trends in the Twentieth Century. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2001) [Wikipedia ] Wikipedia: Wikipedia. http://de.wikipedia.org, Abruf: 05. Dec 2011

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27

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A. Appendix A
A.1. Stations
A.1.1. Basin Attributes

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ID

NEW_ID

AREA
1.979 1.905 2.772 2.258 2.686 1.886 2.333 2.537 1.7 988 23.8 3729 72.1 34 924 15.1 918 68 56 0.3 0.3 842 12.2 1943 68.8 76 0.9 761 10 1647 66.5 97 0 722 7.3 1693 66.5 90 0.1 649 11.6 2522 69.5 82 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 648 11.3 2095 70.1 86 0.3 0 585 13.6 1223 71.9 71 0.1 0 473 2.6 1406 70.4 93 0 0

K-Gravelius

ALTITUDE

SLOPE

RIV_DENS

MEAN_CN

SOIL

%_ROCK

%GLACIER

PREC_ANN
1011 1067 1277 1251 1215 1338 1224 1284 1816

833

48.5

915

261

528

78.9

549

342

883

392

863

59.9

650

124

479

183

843

2312 2202 2126 2132 2034 2343 2159 2122 2321

73.9

!"#$%&%'(%)

ID

NEW_ID

AREA
1.896 1.991 2.079 1.549 1.865 2.576 2.19 1.807 1.916 1.593 1.484 1989 34.2 1058 84 16 1853.5 25.9 2380 76 28.8 1815 30.9 1006 73.4 19 1808 29.9 2574 78.5 29 21.9 24.7 14.6 57.6 1797 25.5 1950 75.1 32 14.6 1634 23.2 1847 74.3 33 9.9 1618 29 1352 74.8 24 19.4 1336 19 4121 74.1 39 2.6 0 4.3 3.4 1.7 0.3 9.7 0 0 1069 15.8 2844 69.2 71 3.3 0 1020 17.9 2854 72.7 65 3.4 0 1000 17.2 2138 74.2 50 4.3 0

K-Gravelius

ALTITUDE

SLOPE

RIV_DENS

MEAN_CN

SOIL

%_ROCK

%GLACIER

PREC_ANN
1403 1723 1337 2151 1474 1408 1194 1396 1488 1535 1807

698

180

825

493

978

352

822

59.2

1143

227

637

344

1127

616

864

105

799

43.9

750

28.8

879

2187 2303 2179 2300 2481 2151 2150 2426 2276 2232 2356

25

!"#$%*%'(%)

ID

NEW_ID

AREA
1.744 1.896 1.906 1.676 1.644 1.861 1.949 1.773 1.799 1.804 2.185 1.626 1.691 1.624 1.754 1.753 1.835 1.742 1.961 2710 22.8 828 2710 28.3 1192 2655 29 1072 67 69.5 64.4 2648 29.6 1256 70 2616 25.4 1290 73.8 2548 27.4 1222 81.4 2371 26.9 1732 79.5 17 17 15 10 13 11 10 2366 33.8 708 82.1 10 2335 27 1524 69.2 19 2330 25.3 1304 78.9 22 2328 23.8 1069 70.6 10 2290 24.3 1772 74.8 25 15.9 36.6 31.8 26.8 47.2 34.7 33.2 38.1 37.5 26.5 37.1 34.7 2277 26.1 2367 77.8 20 30.8 2221 24.7 2098 76.7 21 23.7 2196 33.6 713 78.8 10 57 2152 31.8 1268 74.2 17 33.3 16.5 19.7 0.8 5.5 0 32.1 0 22.7 2.6 2.7 0 21.1 32.6 29.3 32.6 45.7 2125 27.1 1511 76.4 22 23.1 1.2 2031 30.1 1553 72.9 20 26.6 16.6 2012 29.3 1977 73.2 27 20.3 7.2

K-Gravelius

ALTITUDE

SLOPE

RIV_DENS

MEAN_CN

SOIL

%_ROCK

%GLACIER

PREC_ANN
845 1367 994 1346 1392 1038 1636 1455 1311 865 1152 816 990 927 1110 1098 737 948 1737

862

77.7

387

379

614

529

716

164

821

20.6

877

183

298

192

890

14.1

735

35.7

826

55.3

866

913

838

26.9

848

43.3

922

73.3

782

107

793

77.8

152

778

778

66.5

792

2342 2109 2141 2200 2299 2355 2087 2366 2219 2304 2346 2319 2327 2263 2262 2269 2351 2256 2268

38.9

!"#$%&%'(%&

31

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A.2. Results
A.2.1. Slope estimate results

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spring qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax 0.85 1.28 1.46 1.67 1.90 1.74 1.70 2.78 5.28 6.53 10.13

1970-1990 read stations available summer autumn winter 39 44 -1.88 -0.45 0.26 -1.90 -0.40 0.19 -1.37 -0.41 0.18 -0.89 -0.37 0.09 -1.02 -0.19 0.04 -0.43 0.14 0.03 0.07 0.42 0.17 0.30 0.94 0.57 -0.17 -0.34 1.13 -0.08 -0.81 1.96 -7.40 1.82 20.36 1980-2000 summer autumn winter -0.16 0.66 0.06 -0.26 0.80 0.21 -0.28 0.82 0.18 -1.15 0.87 0.25 -2.11 0.88 0.36 -3.31 0.89 0.42 -4.51 0.40 0.42 -6.06 -0.42 0.58 -7.99 -0.40 0.66 -8.96 1.04 0.84 -4.47 7.88 5.74 1990-2010 summer autumn winter 0.95 -0.27 -0.22 0.57 -0.39 -0.25 0.00 -0.56 -0.22 -0.70 -0.73 -0.26 -1.09 -1.00 -0.33 -1.51 -1.57 -0.54 -1.68 -2.09 -0.64 -1.78 -3.16 -0.94 -1.79 -3.83 -1.53 -0.62 -5.43 -2.39 7.03 -9.92 -10.32

spring qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax 0.42 0.54 0.60 0.14 -0.23 -0.62 0.15 2.19 2.19 1.15 5.12

39

51

spring qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax -0.58 -0.69 -0.21 0.38 1.10 1.68 2.50 1.89 3.19 3.57 12.55

39

48

33

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A.2.2. Mann-Kendall relative frequency results

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

!"#"$% ,-0/(1/// ' ()' ((' (&' &*' &+' *' ,' -)' -)' &,' &(' ()%#*+ ,-0/(1/// ' ,' &+' *' *' *' *' (' +' +' +' (' &*' &(' -(' (&' ()' %&' %)' *)' */' */' -&' &*' -(' &(' (' ,' (' (' (' (' (' *' +' (' ,' ,' &+' &*' &+' &+' ,' ,' ,' ( ' ( !"#$ !'( !)( !%( !-( !,( !*( !.( !+( !/( !"01 )*& )'& )%& )'& ',& ',& '(& '(& '(& +& */& ,& ,& %& +& +& +& ,& +& ,& ,& %& ,--/(1/,/ & ' ,-./',--/ & ',& )'& )'& '+& '+& )'& )'& %'& )%& '+& )%& ,-0/'1/// ' ',& +& +& +& ,& %& %& (& (& (& (& & +& ,& ,& ,& %& %& %& (& (& (& (& &*' &,' &*' &+' &(' ,' &+' &+' &*' &+' (' (' (' (' ,' -&' (&' (,' &*' -)' &+' -(' ((' -)' -(' ,' (' (' +' +' +' +' +' ( ' ( !"#$ !'( !)( !%( !-( !,( !*( !.( !+( !/( !"01 %& (& %& ,& '(& ',& '+& '%& %& ,& '%& '(& '%& '%& +& '%& ,& +& +& %& ,& ,& )*& )*& '+& )'& '+& '(& +& +& +& +& +& %& %& +& ,& +& %& '(& '+& '%& +& (& %& %& %& (& %& (& (& (& (& (& %& ,--/'1/,/ ' ,--/(1/,/ & ' & ' & '

,-./',--/

,-0/'1///

,--/'1/,/ '%& '+& '%& )%& )%& %'& %'& %*& %+& )+& )+&

!"#$%&

,-./(,--/

'

!"#$ !&+ !-+ !(+ !%+ !*+ !)+ !.+ !,+ !/+ !"01

%&' *&' %)' %%' ((' -(' &(' -)' %%' ((' &,'

(' *' (' (' +' (' (' (' (' (' ('

!)**+#

,-./(,--/

'

!"#$ !&+ !-+ !(+ !%+ !*+ !)+ !.+ !,+ !/+ !"01

+' +' ,' ,' &+' *' &+' &*' ,' &*' *'

&,' &,' -&' &*' &+' ,' ,' *' (' ,' &,'

)'& )%& )'& ',& )'& )*& )%& %'& %+& -'& --&

35

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A.2.3. Altitude groups results

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

!"#$%& '()*+, 4567 457< 45:> 4574 ;59= ;5:< 9596 <5:; =59? 757: 9>5<:

3.*+ 3;4 394 3<4 364 3=4 3>4 3:4 374 3?4 3.0@

;?:48;??4 48;444. ;44489444. A9444. '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) '()*+, '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) '()*+, '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) 8459: 8459; 845<7 ;5=7 8956> 845:6 45=: 45>4 895<; 845<? 45<? 8456< 84594 8456? 95:4 8<59< 845>? 4567 45>: 8;57< 845<< 45<= 845=9 845<; 8459= <5=; 8<5?4 84577 45<; 45>4 845<9 845;? 45<; 845=9 8456> 8456= <5?6 8659= 8;54= 4599 45:: 457? 454> 4597 845=4 845=< 845:7 65<: 865:: 8;594 459: 45:: 45?4 45=> 4597 845<> 8456: 845?7 <56< 865;> 8;5;; 45<? 45:> ;5:; ;5;> 45<4 845;; 845;6 8456> 9544 8<5>? 8;59? 4567 ;597 95<6 ;5>7 459? 4547 45;? 4569 ;56? 865=? 8;5=< ;5;> <547 <596 95:9 45<4 45=> 845>: ;567 <5<: 8>5:< 8;5?7 9544 >5<: <597 45:: 456: 8454; 8;5;? 65== 959: 8:59; 895>7 95>= :577 6549 456> 45<6 875=< <5=: <>5;; 956= 89<599 8;5?4 <=577 >577 959? <5;= <5?; ;?7489444 ;44489444. A9444. '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) '()*+, '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) 8457< 45:4 845;= 45=; 459? ;54; 45<; 8;54= ;59= 4549 45:; 459< 45?? 456: 8;5>= ;597 45;4 457> 45=6 ;544 456< 895;6 ;5=4 45<; 45>4 845?4 45?4 4564 8<594 ;5=: 45== 456= 89597 45:= 456: 8=5;< ;5:? 45:6 45=6 8<5>; 456; 45=: 8>56; ;5:6 4576 ;57? 8=5;= 845:? 45>= 8:5:6 ;5>9 ;59; =5;9 8:564 895:4 45:7 8754= ;5?9 ;566 >5;6 8;;59: 8<5;; 457; 8?57> 654: ;5:? =5>> 8;95>: 8;56> 457? 8>5<4 95;: ;<544 ?5>= 8>5:7 ?564 ;5;4

3.*+ 3;4 394 3<4 364 3=4 3>4 3:4 374 3?4 3.0@

'()*+, 8;5;= 8;5=6 8;5:4 8954: 8954> 895<6 895:6 8<59? 865;7 8=5=7 8:59?

48;444. '-../) 0-1-.+ 2*+1/) 845<4 845;> 8459; 845<9 845;< 8454? 845<= 845;< 8459= 8456> 454; 845;= 84564 45<9 845;; 8456: 45:? 8459? 84576 ;59: 845=> 8;5;? ;5?; 845>4 8;544 956: 845>; 8454< 95=7 8456; 95>= ;;5>= >5>=

'()*+, ;5=< ;5?: 954= ;5;= 4547 8;599 84567 ;5>4 45=7 8;5;6 :566

-($% -0. -3. -2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -5. -9. -(*:

!"#$%& ./01 ./13 ./75 ./90 0/09 0/58 3/43 2/20 1/45 4/03 9/09

.60...( !'(()# *'+'(% ,$%+)# ./12 ./34 ./35 ./40 ./30 ./.9 ./47 ./37 ./.3 ./18 6./07 ./.7 ./07 6./35 ./.2 6./03 6./92 6./01 6./1. 63/34 6./37 6./54 62/4. 6./79 60/49 61/24 60/85 60/40 64/83 62/11 8/14 603/72 603/83

!"#$%& 60/37 60/15 6./37 ./57 0/93 3/42 2/09 3/92 2/08 2/94 02/29

099.63.0. 0...63...( !'(()# *'+'(% ,$%+)# ./58 6./32 6./17 0/44 6./27 6./10 0/40 6./40 6./35 0/12 6./48 6./19 0/38 6./90 6./70 ./80 60/28 6./59 ./75 60/8. 6./98 ./91 63/59 60/18 0/7. 62/88 63/43 2/35 68/01 61/.1 23/70 3/4. 633/02

;3...( !"#$%& !'(()# *'+'(% ,$%+)# 6./43 0/31 6./41 6./23 6./87 ./.1 6./75 6./20 6./7. 60/01 6./95 6./2. 6./04 63/15 60/0. 6./39 ./45 62/.4 60/25 6./21 0/00 62/14 63/.. 6./43 3/.9 62/74 63/32 6./73 ./70 62/89 62/07 6./84 3/42 62/51 62/73 6./52 3/70 63/17 61/20 6./92 02/74 68/95 604/52 63/24

("'((($ ! #" #" #" #" #" #" +" +" +" +" +" %&" %&" '&" '(" (!" !*" !*" '&" $)" %(" !*" $" !!" $" $" #" $" #" #" #" #" #" #$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12 !" !" !" !" !" !" !" ##" !" !" !" ##" $$" $$" $$" $$" ##" ##" ##" !" ##" **" $%" #'" $%" $%" #'" #'" #'" )" )" #'" $%" " ! " ! !" !" #&" #&" $#" ##" $#" $&" #&" *$" ##"

3)((($

("'((($

3)((($ " #&" #&" #&" (" !" !" !" !" !" !" ("

"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

!!" ''" ((" ((" ((" ((" !!" ((" ''" %%" ''"

#" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #"

456789 '0.("'00( '(((")((($ ! " $$" &'" )(" )(" *%" '*" +" +" (&" +" +"

456678 '0.("'00( '(((")((($ ! " !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

#" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #"

''" $*" %%" ''" %%" ''" ''" ''" $*" %%" #"

'0/(")((( *%" %$" %$" !)" +" #" #" !)" +" +" #" +" #" +" #" #" #" +" +" +" #" +" '&" %(" '&" (!" !*" !!" !*" %(" %&" '(" (*" !!" !!" $" $" $" #" #" #" #" #" #" #$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12 !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

$$" ##" ##" $$" $$" $$" **" **" $$" ##" !"

'0/(")((( !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

)" !" $%" $%" $%" *&" +(" +(" ((" &+" )"

#&" $#" ##" ##" ##" ##" (" !" !" !" ("

#&" $#" $&" *%" +%" (*" (*" %+" %)" %)" *%"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

#" !!" #" !!" ((" ''" $*" $*" *&" ((" !!"

!!" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #"

'00(")('( +" #" +" +" !)" !)" +" +" (&" +" !)" %$" (&" !)" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" #" $" (!" '&" %&" #" $" $" '(" '&" '&" '&" !*" $" $" #" #" #" #" #"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

##" $$" ##" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

!" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" ##" ##"

'00(")('( #'" $%" $%" )" $%" )" )" )" )" )" #'"

!" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

#&" $#" (" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

!" (" #&" #&" $#" *$" $#" $#" #&" ##" ##"

("'((($ ! $" $" $" $" #(" $" #(" $" $" #(" #(" %" !" %" ##" '#" )'" )*" '&" %" ##" ##" ##" #&" ##" %" %" %" %" ##" !" !" !" #$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12 !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" %(" ##" ##" !" ##" !" !" ##" ##" ##" ##" !" !" !" !" )" )" )" !" )" !" !" !" " ! " ! &%" &$" &$" $*" $#" $*" #*" #*" '" #*" '&"

3)((($

("'((($

3)((($ " '" '" '" '" ##" ##" '" '" '" '" '"

"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

!" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" ##"

##" ##" ''" ##" ''" !" !" !" !" !" !"

456578 '0.("'00( '(((")((($ ! " !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" #("

456789 '0.("'00( '(((")((($ ! " $%" #(" $%" $%" #(" )" )" )" $%" !" )#"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

!" !" !" !" !" !" !" ##" ##" ##" ##"

##" ##" ##" ##" ##" !" !" !" !" !" !"

'0/(")((( #(" )&" #(" '*" '*" #(" #(" $" $" $" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" +'" )'" '&" '&" '#" ##" %" %" %" %" ##" !" !" ##" %" ##" %" '#" )*" '&" #&" !" #$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12 !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

##" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

'0/(")((( !" !" !" !" !" )" )" &*" $%" )" &*"

#(" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

&$" +$" +$" &%" &%" &%" &%" +$" &$" &$" $*"

#*" #*" #*" #*" ##" '" '" !" !" !" !"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

##" ##" ##" !" ##" !" !" !" !" !" !"

!" !" !" ##" ##" ''" ++" ++" ))" ''" ''"

'00(")('( !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" $" #(" #(" $" #(" '*" #(" #(" '*" +%" )&" #(" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" #&" '&" '#" )'" '&" +'" )'" )*" )*" '&" )*"

#$%& #'( #)( #*( #+( #,( #-( #.( #/( #0( #$12

$$" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

!" !" !" !" !" !" !" ##" $$" ++" '*"

'00(")('( !" )" )" )" )" )" )" !" !" !" !"

#(" #(" #(" $%" #(" &*" #(" &*" ''" ''" +'"

'" '" '" '" !" !" !" !" !" !" !"

&$" &%" &$" #*" &$" &$" &%" &%" &%" &$" &%"

39

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A.2.4. Glacier cover results

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

spring -0.98 -1.16 -0.79 -0.09 0.88 1.45 2.29 0.71 1.90 1.81 14.50

qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

-0.10 -0.14 0.47 0.93 1.35 1.95 2.74 3.26 4.68 5.61 10.27

1990-2010 no glacier summer autumn winter spring 0.90 0.09 0.16 1.08 -0.09 0.08 1.22 -0.19 0.12 0.99 -0.46 0.07 0.65 -0.73 -0.01 -0.04 -1.36 -0.22 -0.60 -2.37 -0.38 -0.89 -3.59 -0.78 -0.89 -4.84 -1.75 0.06 -7.79 -3.36 13.79 -10.00 -16.44 glacier summer autumn winter 1.00 -0.58 -0.55 0.14 -0.64 -0.53 -1.06 -0.88 -0.52 -2.15 -0.96 -0.55 -2.58 -1.22 -0.61 -2.77 -1.76 -0.81 -2.61 -1.84 -0.86 -2.54 -2.79 -1.07 -2.56 -2.97 -1.34 -1.20 -3.42 -1.55 1.24 -9.85 -5.08

qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

6% 6% 6% 11% 17% 28% 39% 28% 44% 17% 11%

SPRING 1990-2010 17% 11% 11% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 24% 33% 38% 5% 10% 5% 33% 48% 38% 33% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax 11% 28% 22% 6% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 19% 5% 0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 0% 5% 14% 14% 19% 29% 19% 19% 14% 10% 10%

SUMMER 1990-2010 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 6%

qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

6% 6% 6% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

AUTUMN 1990-2010 0% 6% 0% 11% 22% 22% 33% 33% 50% 39% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 24% 29% 24% 33% 24% 38% 29% 38% 29% 19% 24% qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

11% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%

WINTER 1990-2010 11% 6% 11% 0% 6% 6% 6% 11% 28% 39% 44%

5% 5% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

29% 38% 29% 29% 33% 43% 38% 48% 48% 43% 43%

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A.2.5. Spearman rank correlation results

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

spring qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax -0.14 -0.27 -0.26 -0.25 -0.31 -0.32 -0.26 -0.10 0.11 0.04 -0.41 0.32 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.50 0.57 0.54 0.68 0.70 0.69 0.40 -0.10 -0.27 -0.46 -0.36 -0.20 -0.18 -0.02 -0.29 -0.10 -0.14 0.28

summer autumn winter -0.31 -0.06 0.30 -0.24 -0.04 0.36 0.06 0.07 0.26 0.19 0.15 0.32 0.16 0.23 0.39 0.21 0.30 0.39 0.22 0.28 0.22 0.24 0.29 -0.18 0.19 0.18 -0.39 0.24 0.12 -0.69 0.28 0.02 -0.72 0.19 0.17 0.20 0.07 -0.05 -0.09 -0.17 -0.33 -0.59 -0.52 -0.25 0.15 -0.06 -0.27 -0.36 -0.38 -0.38 -0.35 -0.32 -0.20 -0.09 -0.26 0.54 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.03 -0.12 -0.29 -0.40 -0.36 -0.16 -0.01 -0.38 -0.41 -0.50 -0.37 -0.34 -0.27 -0.08 0.03 0.09 0.17 -0.12 0.32 0.26 0.33 0.21 0.18 0.27 0.39 0.36 0.31 0.20 -0.43 -0.25 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.08 -0.04 -0.01 0.14 0.39 0.51 0.49

1970 1990

1980 2000

1990 2010

spring qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax 0.06 -0.08 -0.17 -0.27 -0.32 -0.34 -0.22 0.05 0.26 0.07 -0.26 0.43 0.56 0.56 0.53 0.56 0.61 0.70 0.81 0.82 0.80 0.53 -0.17 -0.53 -0.65 -0.50 -0.24 -0.07 -0.01 -0.52 -0.39 -0.35 0.55

summer autumn winter -0.17 0.03 0.30 -0.02 0.02 0.27 0.19 0.10 0.20 0.22 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.34 0.21 0.23 0.30 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.20 0.14 0.09 0.18 0.13 0.04 0.31 0.15 -0.14 0.30 -0.02 -0.45 0.24 0.14 0.10 -0.01 -0.04 -0.07 -0.16 -0.36 -0.57 -0.52 -0.38 -0.10 -0.22 -0.38 -0.44 -0.35 -0.36 -0.29 -0.16 -0.03 0.01 -0.33 0.50 0.35 0.21 0.15 0.05 -0.17 -0.30 -0.44 -0.41 -0.23 0.05 -0.42 -0.41 -0.49 -0.39 -0.33 -0.25 0.09 0.21 0.22 0.23 -0.04 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.18 0.29 0.45 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.12 -0.32 -0.18 -0.20 -0.16 -0.19 -0.20 -0.29 -0.17 0.02 0.20 0.24

1970 1990

1980 2000

1990 2010

qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

correlation slope - glacier cover spring summer autumn winter -0.20 0.26 -0.33 -0.23 -0.22 -0.15 -0.35 -0.21 -0.35 -0.60 -0.37 -0.17 -0.36 -0.66 -0.25 -0.13 -0.28 -0.66 -0.28 -0.13 -0.35 -0.56 -0.42 -0.18 -0.22 -0.45 -0.25 -0.18 -0.22 -0.37 -0.16 -0.10 -0.02 -0.28 -0.09 0.09 -0.21 -0.29 0.16 0.20 0.15 -0.28 0.01 0.24 correlation Z - glacier cover -0.35 -0.05 -0.36 -0.44 -0.36 -0.39 -0.48 -0.57 -0.47 -0.51 -0.63 -0.31 -0.40 -0.59 -0.25 -0.34 -0.48 -0.34 -0.15 -0.39 -0.09 -0.33 -0.23 0.02 -0.13 -0.16 0.08 -0.29 -0.17 0.23 0.41 -0.30 0.12

1990 2010

qmin q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90 qmax

-0.29 -0.29 -0.26 -0.23 -0.25 -0.33 -0.46 -0.40 -0.33 -0.13 -0.21

1990 2010

46

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

A.3. Additional Figures

Figure 9: Representative Discharge [mm/season] for all season of q90 streamow averaged over all stations.

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

47

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Figure 10: Representative discharge [mm/year] for all season of q90 streamow averaged over all stations and grouped by station altitude.

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

48

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

Figure 11: Estimated slopes [mm/season] and standard deviation for 50- and 90-percent quantiles grouped according to glacier cover for the period 1990-2010.

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

49

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

(a)

(b)

Figure 12: Spearman rank correlation coecients of relative glacier cover and estimated slope (a) and MK Z statistic (b)

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

50

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

B. Appendix B
B.1. Main Matlab Program for Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

% main file %select range of records by setting start_year and end_year %selct input files by editing file_paths.m (enter paths to files & file %names) for i=1:widtth %for every station %select one station add date for season division station(1:lengtth,1) = runoff_daily(1:lengtth,i); station = add_date(station, start_year, end_year); %divide runoff according to season [spring, summer, autumn, winter] = season_div(station);

[lengtth widtth] = size(runoff_daily);

%% path name vectors %run file_paths.m to get file names & paths file_paths_all

%% read data display('start read data'); %calculate q_spring = q_summer = q_autumn = q_winter = quantiles quant_calc(spring(2:93,:)); quant_calc(summer(2:93,:)); quant_calc(autumn(2:92,:)); quant_calc(winter(2:92,:));

start_year = 1990; end_year = 2010;

%group stations according to either altitude or slope or glacier cover: 1 = yes, 0=no altitude = [0; 1000; 2000]; %get calculations depending on altitude of stations slope = [0; 16; 28]; %get calculations depending on slope of stations glacier = [1; 0.1]; %get calculations depending on slope of stations for j=1:1:11 %Mann-Kendall test spring_mk_test(j,i) summer_mk_test(j,i) autumn_mk_test(j,i) winter_mk_test(j,i) = = = = %Theil-Sen slope spring_ts_slope(j,i) summer_ts_slope(j,i) autumn_ts_slope(j,i) winter_ts_slope(j,i) end end clear spring summer autumn winter clear q_spring q_summer q_autumn q_winter clear station runoff_daily_date runoff_daily

skipped = [1 2 3]; % stations where data range is not available for given start & end year station_list = []; % stations with available data

mann_kendall_test(q_spring(j,:)); mann_kendall_test(q_summer(j,:)); mann_kendall_test(q_autumn(j,:)); mann_kendall_test(q_winter(j,:));

%read data from all stations with recorded data for selected period k=1; for i=1:length(file_paths) %read data from file [runoff_daily_date st_range st_number st_name] = read_data(file_paths{i});

= = = =

theil_sen_slope(q_spring(j,:)); theil_sen_slope(q_summer(j,:)); theil_sen_slope(q_autumn(j,:)); theil_sen_slope(q_winter(j,:));

%check if data available before selection if (start_year < st_range(1) || end_year > st_range(2)) skipped = [skipped ; st_number st_range]; continue else runoff_daily(:,k) = select_data(runoff_daily_date, start_year, end_year); station_list = [station_list; st_number]; k=k+1; end

%% calculate frequencies of stat. significant values [spring_relFreq(:,1), [summer_relFreq(:,1), [autumn_relFreq(:,1), [winter_relFreq(:,1), spring_relFreq(:,2)] summer_relFreq(:,2)] autumn_relFreq(:,2)] winter_relFreq(:,2)] = = = = freq_Z(spring_mk_test,0.1); freq_Z(summer_mk_test,0.1); freq_Z(autumn_mk_test,0.1); freq_Z(winter_mk_test,0.1); display('END process data'); %% convert slopes to mm/season and calculate b_mean display('START slope data'); % convert form m3/s to mm/season with bason attributes for i=1:11 spring_ts_slope(i,:) = spring_ts_slope(i,:)./ transpose(station_list(:,2))*3.6*24*92; summer_ts_slope(i,:) = summer_ts_slope(i,:)./ transpose(station_list(:,2))*3.6*24*92; autumn_ts_slope(i,:) = autumn_ts_slope(i,:)./ transpose(station_list(:,2))*3.6*24*91; winter_ts_slope(i,:) = winter_ts_slope(i,:)./ transpose(station_list(:,2))*3.6*24*90; end

end

%read basin attributes of stations [num,txt,raw] = xlsread('BasinAttributes.xls','BasinAttributes','B2:C50'); basin_attr = [num(:,2:3) num(:,5:6) num(:,11)];% get station number, area(km^2), altitude(m), slope(%)

%find basin area for every station and insert in station_list for i=1:length(station_list) for j=1:length(basin_attr) if (station_list(i) == basin_attr(j,1)) station_list(i,2:5) = basin_attr(j,2:5); end end

%add missing basin area stations to skipped stations list if (station_list(i,2) == 0) skipped = [skipped ; station_list(i,1) station_list(i,2) 1]; end

end

display('end read data'); %% process data mann kendall (Z-value) and slope display('START process data');

%Division into seasons

% remove inf values skipped_basinatt_missing = []; [le wi] = size(spring_ts_slope); for i=1:wi if ( abs(spring_ts_slope(1,i)) == inf) spring_ts_slope(:,i) = NaN; summer_ts_slope(:,i) = NaN; autumn_ts_slope(:,i) = NaN; winter_ts_slope(:,i) = NaN;

%make list of missing basin attributes skipped_basinatt_missing = [skipped_basinatt_missing ; station_list(i,1:2)];

end

end %glacier coverage correlation spearman_b_glacier(:,1) = spearman_rho(spring_ts_slope, spearman_b_glacier(:,2) = spearman_rho(summer_ts_slope, spearman_b_glacier(:,3) = spearman_rho(autumn_ts_slope, spearman_b_glacier(:,4) = spearman_rho(winter_ts_slope, %glacier coverage correlation spearman_Z_glacier(:,1) = spearman_rho(spring_mk_test, spearman_Z_glacier(:,2) = spearman_rho(summer_mk_test, spearman_Z_glacier(:,3) = spearman_rho(autumn_mk_test, spearman_Z_glacier(:,4) = spearman_rho(winter_mk_test,

%altitude correlation spearman_Z_altitude(:,1) spearman_Z_altitude(:,2) spearman_Z_altitude(:,3) spearman_Z_altitude(:,4) = = = = spearman_rho(spring_mk_test, spearman_rho(summer_mk_test, spearman_rho(autumn_mk_test, spearman_rho(winter_mk_test, station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3));

display('END slope data'); %% group according to stations group_station_list = ones(length(station_list),1); %if no groups

station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5));

if (altitude(1) == 1) %if grouped by elevation group_station_list = group_stations(station_list, altitude); elseif (slope(1) == 1) %if grouped by slope group_station_list = group_stations(station_list, slope); elseif (glacier(1) == 1) group_station_list = group_stations(station_list, glacier); end [m n] = size(group_station_list);

station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5)); station_list(:,5));

frequencies_rel_min(:,1)];

for g=0:4:4*n-1 %for different groups (start with 0 so g/4+1==1) %mean and std of slope over all stations % g+1,+2,+3,+4 g=[1 2 3 4][5 6 7 8][9 10 11 12] % g/4+1 g=[1][2][3][4] % 2*g/4+1,+2 g=[1 2][3 4][5 6] for i=1:11 %b slope_mean(i,g+1) = nanmean( spring_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_mean(i,g+2) = nanmean( summer_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_mean(i,g+3) = nanmean( autumn_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_mean(i,g+4) = nanmean( winter_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) );

frequencies_rel_min(:,2)];

frequencies_rel_min(:,3)];

slope_stdev(i,g+1) = nanstd( spring_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_stdev(i,g+2) = nanstd( summer_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_stdev(i,g+3) = nanstd( autumn_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) ); slope_stdev(i,g+4) = nanstd( winter_ts_slope(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)) );

display('END spearman'); %% plotting frequencies % % figure; % % subplot(2,2,1); %spring % spring_frequencies = [frequencies_rel_max(:,1) % bar(spring_frequencies,'grouped'); % title ('Spring') % set(gca,'YLim',[0 0.5]) % % subplot(2,2,2); %summer % summer_frequencies = [frequencies_rel_max(:,2) % bar(summer_frequencies,'grouped'); % title 'Summer' % set(gca,'YLim',[0 0.5]) % % subplot(2,2,3); %autumn % autumn_frequencies = [frequencies_rel_max(:,3) % bar(autumn_frequencies,'grouped'); % title 'Autumn' % set(gca,'YLim',[0 0.5]) % % subplot(2,2,4); %winter % winter_frequencies = [frequencies_rel_max(:,4) % bar(winter_frequencies,'grouped'); % title 'Winter' % set(gca,'YLim',[0 0.5]) ); ); ); );

frequencies_rel_min(:,4)];

%Z [spring_relFreq(i,2*g/4+1), spring_relFreq(i,2*g/4+2)] = freq_Z( spring_mk_test(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)),0.1 [summer_relFreq(i,2*g/4+1), summer_relFreq(i,2*g/4+2)] = freq_Z( summer_mk_test(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)),0.1 [autumn_relFreq(i,2*g/4+1), autumn_relFreq(i,2*g/4+2)] = freq_Z( autumn_mk_test(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)),0.1 [winter_relFreq(i,2*g/4+1), winter_relFreq(i,2*g/4+2)] = freq_Z( winter_mk_test(i,:).* transpose(group_station_list(:,g/4+1)),0.1

end

end

display('END grouping'); %% spearman rank coefficient

%altitude correlation spearman_b_altitude(:,1) spearman_b_altitude(:,2) spearman_b_altitude(:,3) spearman_b_altitude(:,4) station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3)); station_list(:,3));

= = = =

spearman_rho(spring_ts_slope, spearman_rho(summer_ts_slope, spearman_rho(autumn_ts_slope, spearman_rho(winter_ts_slope,

%% plotting Q50 and Q90 slopes % % figure('Color',[1 1 1]); % % for i=1:4 % for g=0:4:4*n-1 % % g+1,+2,+3,+4 g=[1 2 3 4][5 6 7 8][9 10 11 12] % % g/4+1 g=[1][2][3][4] % % 2*g/4+1,+2 g=[1 2][3 4][5 6] % q5090(1,g/4+1) = slope_mean(6,g+i); % q5090(2,g/4+1) = slope_stdev(6,g+i)/2; % % q5090(1,n+g/4+1) = slope_mean(10,g+i); % q5090(2,n+g/4+1) = slope_stdev(10,g+i)/2; % end % subplot(2,2,i) % hold on % bar(q5090(1,:)); % errorbar(q5090(1,:),q5090(2,:),'.r'); % hold off % title (' Q50 Q90') % %set(gca,'xLabel',{'q50' 'q3' }) % % end

53

Streamow Trends in Switzerland

B.2. Main Matlab Program for Representative Discharge

Dec 5, 2011

Mersch Kevin

Project Work

% main file %select range of records by setting start_year and end_year %selct input files by editing file_paths.m (enter paths to files & file %names) %divide runoff according to season [spring, summer, autumn, winter] = season_div(station);

for i=1:widtth %for every station %select one station add date for season division station(1:lengtth,1) = runoff_daily(1:lengtth,i); station = add_date(station, start_year, end_year);

%% path name vectors %run file_paths.m to get file names & paths file_paths_all %calculate q_spring = q_summer = q_autumn = q_winter = %Representative discharges %Q50 q50_spring(i,:) q50_summer(i,:) q50_autumn(i,:) q50_winter(i,:) = = = = q_spring(6,:); q_summer(6,:); q_autumn(6,:); q_winter(6,:); %Q90 q90_spring(i,:) q90_summer(i,:) q90_autumn(i,:) q90_winter(i,:) = = = = quantiles quant_calc(spring(2:93,:)); quant_calc(summer(2:93,:)); quant_calc(autumn(2:92,:)); quant_calc(winter(2:92,:));

%% read data display('start read data');

start_year = 1970; end_year = 2010;

%group stations according to either altitude or slope: 1 = yes, 0=no altitude = [1; 1000; 2000]; %get calculations depending on altitude of stations

skipped = [1 2 3]; % stations where data range is not available for given start & end year station_list = []; % stations with available data q_spring(10,:); q_summer(10,:); q_autumn(10,:); q_winter(10,:);

%read data from all stations with recorded data for selected period k=1; for i=1:length(file_paths) %read data from file [runoff_daily_date st_range st_number st_name] = read_data(file_paths{i});

end clear spring summer autumn winter clear q_spring q_summer q_autumn q_winter clear station runoff_daily_date runoff_daily

%check if data available before selection if (start_year < st_range(1) || end_year > st_range(2)) skipped = [skipped ; st_number st_range]; continue else runoff_daily(:,k) = select_data(runoff_daily_date, start_year, end_year); station_list = [station_list; st_number]; k=k+1; end

end

display('end process data'); %% Representative discharge conversion to mm/season display('start representative discharge data'); % convert form m3/s to mm/season with bason attributes [le wi] = size(q50_spring); for i=1:wi q50_spring(:,i) = q50_spring(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*92; q50_summer(:,i) = q50_summer(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*92; q50_autumn(:,i) = q50_autumn(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*91; q90_spring(:,i) = q90_spring(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*92; q90_summer(:,i) = q90_summer(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*92; q90_autumn(:,i) = q90_autumn(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*91; end for i=1:wi-1 q50_winter(:,i) = q50_winter(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*90; q90_winter(:,i) = q90_winter(:,i)./station_list(:,2)*3.6*24*90; end

%read basin attributes [num,txt,raw] = xlsread('BasinAttributes.xls','BasinAttributes','B2:C50'); basin_attr = [num(:,2:3) num(:,5:6)];% get station number, area(km^2), altitude(m), slope(%)

%find basin area for every station and insert in station_list for i=1:length(station_list) for j=1:length(basin_attr) if (station_list(i) == basin_attr(j,1)) station_list(i,2:4) = basin_attr(j,2:4); end end

%add missing basin area stations to skipped stations list if (station_list(i,2) == 0) skipped = [skipped ; station_list(i,1) station_list(i,2) 1]; end

end

display('end read data'); %% process data display('start process data');

%Division into seasons

% remove inf values skipped_basinatt_missing = []; for i=1:le if (q50_spring(i) == inf) q50_spring(i,:) = NaN; q50_summer(i,:) = NaN; q50_autumn(i,:) = NaN; q50_winter(i,:) = NaN;

q90_spring(i,:) q90_summer(i,:) q90_autumn(i,:) q90_winter(i,:)

= = = =

NaN; NaN; NaN; NaN; %make list of missing basin attributes skipped_basinatt_missing = [skipped_basinatt_missing ; station_list(i,1:2)];

[lengtth widtth] = size(runoff_daily);

end

end

%% group according to stations group_station_list = ones(length(station_list),1); %if no groups subplot(4,1,2); %summer errorbar(year,repr_q50_summer(1,:),repr_q50_summer(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q50_summer(1,:)); hold off title 'Summer Q50' set(gca,'YLim',[0 1000]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011]) subplot(4,1,3); %autumn errorbar(year,repr_q50_autumn(1,:),repr_q50_autumn(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q50_autumn(1,:)); hold off title 'Autumn Q50' set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

hold off title ('Spring Q50') set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

if (altitude(1) == 1) %if grouped by elevation group_station_list = group_stations(station_list, altitude); end [m n] = size(group_station_list);

for g=0:4:4*n-1 %for different groups (start with 0 so g/4+1==1) %mean and std of slope over all stations % g/4+1 g=[1][2][3] % 2*g/4+1,+2 g=[1 2][3 4][5 6] for i=1:wi repr_q50_spring(2*g/4+1,i) = nanmean( q50_spring(:,i).* group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q50_spring(2*g/4+2,i) = nanstd( q50_spring(:,i).* group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; repr_q90_spring(2*g/4+1,i) = nanmean( q90_spring(:,i).* group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q90_spring(2*g/4+2,i) = nanstd( q90_spring(:,i).* group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2;

= nanmean( q50_summer(:,i).*

= nanstd( q50_summer(:,i).*

= nanmean( q90_summer(:,i).*

subplot(4,1,4); %winter errorbar(year(2:length(year)),repr_q50_winter(1,:),repr_q50_winter(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year(2:length(year)),repr_q50_winter(1,:)); hold off title 'Winter Q50' set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

repr_q50_summer(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q50_summer(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; repr_q90_summer(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q90_summer(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2;

= nanstd( q90_summer(:,i).*

= nanmean( q50_autumn(:,i).*

= nanstd( q50_autumn(:,i).*

= nanmean( q90_autumn(:,i).*

repr_q50_autumn(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q50_autumn(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; repr_q90_autumn(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q90_autumn(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; end

= nanstd( q90_autumn(:,i).*

figure('Color',[1 1 1]); %Q90 subplot(4,1,1); %spring errorbar(year,repr_q90_spring(1,:),repr_q90_spring(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q90_spring(1,:)); hold off title ('Spring Q90') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

= nanmean( q50_winter(:,i).*

= nanstd( q50_winter(:,i).*

= nanmean( q90_winter(:,i).*

for i=1:wi-1 repr_q50_winter(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q50_winter(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; repr_q90_winter(2*g/4+1,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) ); repr_q90_winter(2*g/4+2,i) group_station_list(:,g/4+1) )/2; end end

= nanstd( q90_winter(:,i).*

subplot(4,1,2); %summer errorbar(year,repr_q90_summer(1,:),repr_q90_summer(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q90_summer(1,:)); hold off title 'Summer Q90' set(gca,'YLim',[0 2000]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

display('end representative discharge data'); %% plotting representative discharge

year=[start_year:1:end_year];

subplot(4,1,3); %autumn errorbar(year,repr_q90_autumn(1,:),repr_q90_autumn(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q90_autumn(1,:)); hold off title 'Autumn Q90' set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500]) set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011]) subplot(4,1,4); %winter errorbar(year(2:length(year)),repr_q90_winter(1,:),repr_q90_winter(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year(2:length(year)),repr_q90_winter(1,:)); hold off title 'Winter Q90' set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500])

if (altitude(1) == 0) %if NOT grouped by elevation figure('Color',[1 1 1]); %Q50 subplot(4,1,1); %spring errorbar(year,repr_q50_spring(1,:),repr_q50_spring(2,:),'.r'); hold on plot(year,repr_q50_spring(1,:));

set(gca,'XLim',[1969 2011])

else

%if grouped by elevation

%% figure('Color',[1 1 1]); end

plot(repr_q90_winter(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q90_winter(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q90_winter(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Winter Q90') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500])

subplot(4,2,1); %spring hold on plot(year,repr_q50_spring(1,:),'g'); plot(year,repr_q50_spring(3,:),'b'); plot(year,repr_q50_spring(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Spring Q50') set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) set(gca,'XLim',[start_year-1 end_year+1]) legend ('0-1000m','1000-2000m','>2000m')

subplot(4,2,2); %spring hold on plot(repr_q90_spring(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q90_spring(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q90_spring(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Spring Q90') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500])

subplot(4,2,3); %summer hold on plot(repr_q50_summer(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q50_summer(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q50_summer(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Summer Q50') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1000]) subplot(4,2,4); %summer hold on plot(repr_q90_summer(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q90_summer(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q90_summer(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Summer Q90') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1800])

subplot(4,2,5); %autumn hold on plot(repr_q50_autumn(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q50_autumn(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q50_autumn(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Autumn Q50') set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) subplot(4,2,6); %autumn hold on plot(repr_q90_autumn(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q90_autumn(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q90_autumn(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Autumn Q90') set(gca,'YLim',[0 1500])

subplot(4,2,7); %winter hold on plot(repr_q50_winter(1,:),'g'); plot(repr_q50_winter(3,:),'b'); plot(repr_q50_winter(5,:),'r'); hold off title ('Winter Q50') set(gca,'YLim',[0 500]) subplot(4,2,8); %winter hold on