DAILY I FOREX REPORT 3RD MAY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 9752199966

HEADLINES

EUR/USD And EURJPY Ready As Economists Expect ECB Rate Cut US Dollar Clings To Support As S&P 500 Fails At 1600 Again

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3180 tgs 1.3200/1.3220 sl 1.3150

Euro Rises on an Upward Revision of the PMI for Manufacturing Euro Downside May Be Limited Even if ECB Opts to Cut Rates
The European Central Bank is in the spotlight as Mario Draghi and company deliver their monthly monetary policy announcement amid widespread speculation about a 25bps interest rate cut to address the regions deepening recession. However, the negative impact of such a move on the Euro is likely to be limited unless it is accompanied with the introduction of non-standard easing efforts. The market rate to borrow Euros overnight has averaged around 0.1 percent over the past 12 months. That means cutting the ECB benchmark lending rate from 0.75 to 0.5 percent would be essentially moot in terms of lowering regional borrowing costs. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg index tracking Eurozone financial conditions has shown slow deterioration since late January, underscoring the inability of low rates by themselves to secure a supportive funding environment.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 97.40 tgt 97.60/97.80 SL 97.10

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5585 Tgt 1.5605/1.5615 SL 1.5555

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 9752199966

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3176 HIGH: 1.3181 LOW: 1.3159 CLOSE: 1.3177 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 47(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 97.24 HIGH: 97.36 LOW: 97.22 CLOSE: 97.33 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 9752199966

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5572 HIGH: 1.5586 LOW: 1.5568 CLOSE: 1.5582 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: SELL ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8456 HIGH: 00.8458 LOW: 00.8447 CLOSE: 00.8455 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 37(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 9752199966

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 81.6780 HIGH: 81.7040 LOW: 81.6170 CLOSE: 81.6260 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0151(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Apr 28

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

23:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (APR) CNY Leading Index (MAR)

Low

0.3%

0.3%

23:01

Low

0.2%

0.0%

23:01
Mon Apr 29

Low

27

20

Medium

100.23

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (APR) EUR Italy to Sell 5 and 10-Year Bonds EUR EU's Task Force for Greece Releases Quarterly Report EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR P) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAR) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-0.93

-0.91

-0.75

09:00

Medium

-22.3

-22.3

-22.3

09:00

Low

88.6

89.3

90.1

09:00

Low

-13.8

-13.5

-12.3

09:00

Low

-11.1

-7.1

-7.0

09:00

Low

10:30

Medium

12:25

High

1.1%

1.7%

1.8%

12:25

High

1.2%

1.4%

1.4%

12:25

Medium

-0.5%

-0.1%

0.4%

12:25

Medium

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.5%

12:30

High

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%

12:30

Medium

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

USD Personal Income (MAR) USD Personal Spending (MAR) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (MAR) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (MAR) USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAR) USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR) USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (APR) NZD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR) GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR) JPY Household Spending (YoY) (MAR) JPY Jobless Rate (MAR) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P) JPY Large Retailers' Sales (MAR) JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P) JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAR) NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (APR) NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (APR) AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAR) AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAR) NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR) JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.2%

0.4%

1.1%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.0%

0.7%

12:30

Low

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.4%

12:30

Low

1.0%

1.0%

1.3%

14:00

Medium

5.8%

6.1%

4.3%

14:00

Low

1.5%

1.0%

-1.0%

14:30

Low

-15.6

5.0

7.4

22:45

Low

-9.1%

2.0%

4.4%

23:01

Medium

-27

-26

-26

23:30

Medium

5.2%

1.6%

0.8%

23:30

Medium

4.1%

4.2%

4.3%

23:50

Medium

-7.3%

-7.2%

-10.5%

23:50

Medium

2.4%

1.8%

-3.7%

23:50

Medium

-0.3%

0.4%

-2.2%

23:50

Low

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

23:50
Tue Apr 30

Low

-1.4%

-0.8%

1.7%

01:00

Medium

32.3

34.6

01:00

Low

30.3

32.4

01:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

01:30

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

3.4%

03:00

Low

7.0%

6.6%

04:00

Low

-16.4%

-15.1%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (MAR) JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR) JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY) EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR) EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) EUR Cyprus Parliament Vote on Bailout Deal CHF SNB Releases Q1 Currency Holdings EUR German Unemployment Change (APR) EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (SA) (MAR P) GBP Net Consumer Credit (MAR) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR) GBP Mortgage Approvals (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR) CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (FEB) CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (FEB) CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (MAR) CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM)

Medium

0.904M

0.890M

0.944M

05:00

Medium

7.3%

6.0%

3.0%

05:00

Low

-3.4%

16.3%

06:00

Medium

6.2

5.9

6.0

06:00

Medium

-2.8%

-1.2%

-2.6%

06:00

Low

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.6%

07:00

Medium

07:00

Low

07:55

High

4K

2K

12K

07:55

Medium

6.9%

6.9%

6.9%

08:00

Medium

11.5%

11.7%

11.5%

08:30

Medium

0.5B

0.5B

0.5B

08:30

Medium

0.4B

0.6B

0.8B

08:30

Low

4.6%

3.1%

3.2%

08:30

Low

-0.9%

-0.5%

08:30

Low

0.3%

0.6%

08:30

Low

53.5K

52.7K

51.9K

09:00

High

1.2%

1.6%

1.7%

09:00

High

12.1%

12.1%

12.0%

12:30

High

1.7%

1.3%

1.1%

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

1.3%

12:30

Low

-1.7%

0.5%

2.2%

(MAR) 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index (1Q) USD NAPM-Milwaukee (APR) USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (FEB) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (FEB) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (FEB) USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR) USD Consumer Confidence (APR) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (APR) CNY Manufacturing PMI (APR) AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAR) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR) GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (APR) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (APR) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 26) USD ADP Employment Change (APR) USD Markit US PMI Final (APR) USD ISM Manufacturing (APR)
Low

0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

13:00

Low

48.43

51.50

50.98

13:00

Low

1.24%

0.90%

1.00%

13:00

Low

9.3%

9.0%

8.1%

13:00

Low

146.57

146.43

146.14

13:45

Medium

49.0

52.5

52.4

14:00

High

68.1

61.0

61.9

23:30
Wed May 1

Medium

36.7

44.4

00:00

Low

-0.5%

1.3%

01:00

High

50.6

50.7

50.9

01:00

Medium

4.2%

-5.3%

01:30

Medium

-0.6%

-1.2%

-0.8%

05:00

Low

-15.6%

06:00

Medium

1.3%

0.8%

06:00

Low

0.3%

0.0%

06:30

Low

-7.5%

06:30

Low

87.9

08:30

Medium

48.5

48.3

11:00

Low

0.2%

12:15

Medium

150K

158K

12:58

Low

52.0

14:00

High

50.6

51.3

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (MAR) USD ISM Prices Paid (APR) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (ARP 26) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (ARP 26) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (ARP 26) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (ARP 26) USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAY 1) USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (MAY 1) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (APR) USD Total Vehicle Sales (APR) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (APR) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR) JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)

Medium

0.6%

1.2%

14:00

Medium

52.6

54.5

14:30

Low

35K

14:30

Low

1100K

947K

14:30

Low

250K

97K

14:30

Low

-900K

-3928K

18:00

High

0.25%

0.25%

18:00
LIVE

High

21:00

Low

12.00M

12.00M

21:00

Low

15.22M

15.22M

23:50
Thu May 2

Low

19.8%

Low

1.3%

Low

0.2%

Low

$1254.4B

01:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (APR) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (MAR) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (MAR) AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (1Q) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (APR) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)

Low

7.4%

01:30

Low

1.0%

3.1%

01:30

Low

13.6%

12.8%

01:30

Low

4.5%

-2.4%

01:30

Low

-0.5%

0.3%

01:45

Medium

50.6

51.6

07:30

Medium

49.0

48.3

07:45

Medium

45.0

44.5

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (APR) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (APR) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAY) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAY 2) EUR European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate (MAY 2) USD Initial Jobless Claims (ARP 26) USD Trade Balance (MAR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAR) USD Continuing Claims (APR 20) USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q P) USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q P) USD ISM New York (APR) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (ARP 26) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (APR) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (APR) AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (1Q) CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (1Q)

Medium

44.4

44.4

07:55

Medium

47.9

47.9

08:00

Medium

46.5

46.5

08:30

Medium

48.0

47.2

11:30

Low

30.0%

11:30

Low

50.3

11:45
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.75%

11:45

Medium

0.0%

0.0%

12:30

Medium

345K

339K

12:30

Medium

-$42.3B

-$43.0B

12:30

Low

-0.70B

-1.02B

12:30

Low

3030K

3000K

12:30

Low

1.0%

-1.9%

12:30

Low

0.7%

4.6%

13:45

Low

51.2

14:30

Low

30.0

23:30
Fri May 3

Medium

49.6

01:00

Medium

55.6

01:30

Medium

0.2%

01:30

Medium

1.0%

06:00

Medium

1.11

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) USD Unemployment Rate (APR) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (APR) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (APR) USD Change in Private Payrolls (APR) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (APR) USD Change in Household Employment (APR) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (APR) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (APR) USD Factory Orders (MAR) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (APR) USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on the Economy in Virginia

Medium

52.4

52.4

08:30

Low

$202M

09:00

High

0.6%

1.3%

09:00

Medium

-0.2%

0.2%

12:30
LIVE

High

150K

88K

12:30

High

7.6%

7.6%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.0%

12:30

Medium

1.9%

1.8%

12:30

Medium

160K

95K

12:30

Low

34.6

34.6

12:30

Low

-206

12:30

Low

5K

-3K

12:30

Low

12:30

Low

13.8%

14:00

Medium

-3.0%

3.0%

14:00

Medium

54.0

54.4

16:45

Low

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 9752199966

Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 9752199966