N TIMES OF CHANGE, learners

inherit the Earth, wrote author and

philosopher Eric Hoffer, but he
added, while the learned find
them-
selves beautifully equipped to deal
with a world that no longer exists.
A world that no longer exists is cer-
tainly one way to describe the workplace
learning and performance field of yester-
day compared to where it will be a few
years from now. The WPL professional,
whether designing or delivering training
or managing a complex learning function
in an organization, will be a different
creature than she is today, according to
more than a few experts.
The field will further mature and
evolve, at a faster pace now, focusing on
the learner as the center of the universe,
says Jonathon Levy, senior learning
strategist with the Monitor Group. Soft-
ware solutions that capture, redistribute,
and blend granules of inherenthu-
manknowledge with the smallest pos-
sible digital learning objects will be
married to LMS- and ERP-type technolo-
gies through middleware and web ser-
vices, all via a common taxonomy.
All of this will be driven by a recogni-
tion that the academic model is DOA in
the enterprise, and that learning-while-
doing creates enormous competitive
leverage for the corporation that empow-
ers its workforce to have the knowl-
edgeboth human and digitalthat
they need, when they need it, the way
they best understand it, in the amount
they require. Its about time. Its about
performance support. Its about a seam-
less blending of learning and doing.
Its also about leadership and prepar-
ing for the realities of a fast-advancing
future. In the face of shrinking work-
forces in large enterprises, many learn-
ing organizations are finding they have
to do more with less. T+Ds recent article
on what C-level executives think was
fascinating, notes Jay Cross, CEO of In-
ternet Time Group and founder of the
Workflow Institute. What we need are
CLOs with the wherewithal to address
organizational needs. They have been
working on too low a level. Learning and
development will prosper when they be-
come strategic.
This year, training departments will
discover wonderful open-source applica-
TDJanuary 2006 41
For workplace learning and performance professionals,
the pace picks up and the stakes get raised.
The commitment of larger orga-
nizations to workplace learning,
at least in terms of allocation of
resources, seems to be holding
firm or growing, as these six in-
dicators from the ASTD 2005
State of the Industry Report
would suggest.
The annual training expenditure
per employee increased to $955
per employee, up from an aver-
age of $820 per employee in 2003
and 2002. (This increase reflects
in part better accounting of train-
ing expenditures, however, not
necessarily an increase in actual
funding.)
Employees are receiving more
hours of formal learning32
hours of learning per employee in
2004, up from 26 hours in 2003.
Average expenditure as a per-
centage of payroll did not change
in 2004 from the previous year,
remaining steady at 2.34.
Training delivery via learning
technologies increased to 28
percent in 2004, up from 24 per-
cent in 2003.
The percentage of expenditure
for external services has risen
steadily since 2003, with the av-
erage now at 27 percent. The ser-
vices most frequently purchased
externally were technology infra-
structure and content design, de-
velopment, and delivery.
In all categories of organizations
that provided data for the report,
profession- or industry-specific
content was allocated the most
learning content in 2004. Man-
agerial or supervisory training
and business processes were the
second and third largest content
areas.
By the numbers
By Rex Davenport
I
Future
of the
Profession
Copyright ASTD, January 2006
CARE E R PL ANNI NG
tions available for nothing on the Internet.
Many work equally well behind a firewall.
Shame on any large organization that
isnt using or at least investigating the use
of blogs, wikis, folksonomies, social net-
work systems, RSS aggregators, and pod-
casts. A blog post is a learning object.
Cross adds: In five years, our economy
will be almost entirely service. Industrial
jobs will be as rare as farm jobs today.
Computers will have automated more
and more of the scut work, leaving us hu-
mans to deal with value-driven, discre-
tionary activities and creative endeavors.
According to Martyn Sloman, adviser of
learning, training, and development for
the United Kingdom-based Chartered In-
stitute of Personnel and Development,
Research suggests that a shift is taking
place from training to learning. Learning is
a self-directed, work-based process, lead-
ing to increased adaptive capacity. Learn-
ing lies in the domain of the individual.
In part because of the nature of to-
days organization and in part because of
individual preferences, informal learning
has become more important. As a conse-
quence, the range of interventions under-
taken by the trainer now extends far
beyond the design and delivery of the
training course.There has been a huge in-
crease in coaching and in ways of pro-
moting group learning.
On-demand? Maybe not
Whether it is just-in-time, just-enough, or
on-demand, more than a few visionaries
suggest that the learner of the future will
not be saddled with any more training
than is absolutely necessary. Some sug-
gest that the workers own environment
and toolswhether a workstation, a ma-
chine control panel, or a mobile device
will recognize the need and enable or at
least communicate the need for the up-
date in the employees skill set.
There is a danger of expecting too
much here, explains Sloman. What
matters is how we support, direct, and ac-
celerate learning that is relevant to the
organization. This will, for the foreseeable
future, require a sympathetic, aware, and
trained human intermediary. The role of
the line manager is crucial, and coach-
ingso far the only truly personalized
form of interven-
tionwill increase.
Rob Lauber, exec-
utive director of
learning services for
Cingular Wireless,
agrees that too
much focus may
have been placed on
the concept of
achieving on-de-
mand, personalized
learning on a broad
scale. I dont think
thats an attainable
objective, he notes.
It would take a mir-
acle, he adds.
Lauber does,
however, believe in
the power and po-
tential of technology
to change the way
workplace learning
is delivered. High-
speed wireless data
access will empower the possibilities.
The workplace will be completely rede-
fined as anywhere, anytime, for anyone,
he explains.
We must be careful here, explains
Sloman. Technology is a valuable
enabler but its progress to date has dis-
appointed and will continue to disap-
point. Never forget that we must start
with the learner.
Cross, the technology visionary, how-
ever, suggests that 10 years from now,
computers will have surpassed the col-
lective intelligence of the human race.
Virtual reality will feel real, he adds.
But even the smallest devices pale
when compared to the power that can be
tapped in the individual. Meditation
the technology of human consciousness,
offers unlimited potential, explains Levy.
When electronic technology has gone as
far as it can go, the only remaining lever-
age exists within the minds of knowledge
workers. As most of us only use a small
percentage of our full potential, the next
major wave will be to increase the poten-
tial of those individuals already driving
our organizations by enlivening dormant
capacities of the mind.
Many corporations are using meth-
ods of human development, such as
meditation, to gain greater value from
their leadership at a relatively modest in-
vestment. The next huge wave will be
about mental technologies, supported by
electronic technologies.
Cross suggests that the one trend that
will have the biggest impact on the
professionand our liveswill be time
deflation. Both technology and human
evolution are growing at exponential
rates, he explains. They always have
been, but when we were on the flat
side of the hockey stick graph, we didnt
notice. You can almost feel the accel-
eration. Look at any variable and you
see theres a giant up-tick going on.
Theres nothing to slow it down. (Au-
thor and futurist) Ray Kurzweil projects
that the 21st century wont have 100 of
our current years; it will have the equiv-
alent of 20,000 of our years. In five years,
we probably wont have workplaces or a
learning function.
What will be discarded?
As surely as new philosophies and theo-
ries become part of the practice in the
42 TDJanuary 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Average Expenditure per Employee in USD by Year
$645 $649
$734
$826 $818
$955
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
Year
Average Percentage of Learning Hours Provided by
Technology-Based Delivery Methods
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
Year
Source: ASTD State of the Industry Report 2005
8
9
11
15
25
28
Dollars and Hours
Copyright ASTD, January 2006
WPL field, some concepts and ideas must
be left behind.
The academic model of learning
classes, courses, gradesas practiced
within the enterprise, will have to go,
says the Monitor Groups Levy. We will
learn to think differently. Corporate uni-
versities will be renamed. It doesnt mat-
ter what they call them as long as the
word university is not in the title. They
are most certainly not universities
never have been, and dont want to be.
The focus of corporate knowledge is
competitive strategy. End of story.
According to Cingulars Lauber, any
practice that doesnt demonstrate clear
value will be discarded. Avoiding
the fads in workplace learning while
at the same time taking risks on new
practices and ideas will be a challenge,
he adds.
The sooner the (instructional sys-
tems design) model is put out to grass
the better, explains the CIPDs Sloman.
It was a valuable construct for an age
when the majority of the workforce were
in routine production jobs. In this knowl-
edge-service economy, we must become
learner-, not trainer-centered and see our
activities in terms of ongoing processes
not one-off interventions. The role of the
trainer has increasingly become one of
supporting, accelerating, and directing
learning interventions that meet organi-
zational needs and are appropriate to the
learner and the context.
Adds the Workflow Institutes Cross:
The idea that we are in control of our
destiny is dying out. The concept of cer-
tainty is already gone. The butterfly effect
will discredit logic. Evolution will trump
design. TD
Rex Davenport i s edi tor of T+D magazi ne;
rdavenport@astd.org.
TDJanuary 2006 43
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: ASTD State of the Industry Report 2005
Learning vs. Non-Learning Activities
Copyright ASTD, January 2006
Learning/Training Activities
Organizational Development
Process Analysis and Improvement
Talent Management
Knowledge Management
Job-Specific Tools and Resources
Performance Feedback
Performance Expectations
Non-Incentive Motivational Strategies
Incentives
Average Percentage of
Performance Improvement
Solutions Devoted to Learning
and Non-learning Activities
57%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
2%
1%
Learning
Activities
57%
Non-Learning
Performance
Solutions
43%
CARE E R PL ANNI NG
44 TDJanuary 2006
ELLEN BALAGUER, managing director of
Accenture Learning, talks to T+D about
the future of the profession.
T+D: What factors will promote new in-
vestment or greater organizational com-
mitment for training and workforce
development in the near future?
EB: There are several key factors that are
driving, and will continue to drive, invest-
ment and commitment. We view the key
factors as: the development of high per-
formance workforces, employees with
the skills necessary to support globaliza-
tion, and preparation for the aging work-
force.
As companies across the globe strive
to achieve high levels of employee per-
formance, the role of learning is critical
to the creation of a high performance
culture. The signs of superior perfor-
mance are clear. High-performance busi-
nesses consistently deliver strong
returns to shareholders, achieve consis-
tent and solid revenue growth, maintain
a high return over the cost of capital, and
are rewarded with valuations that indi-
cate strong growth expectations. The
high-performance organization has a
leadership culture that unleashes the
businesss energies and capabilities, is
skilled in not just developing strategies
but executing them, and that skillfully
manages the balance between the tasks
of today and the challenges of tomorrow.
In turn, employees are aligned with the
goals of the organization, and they are
highly competent with the right skills, at
the right time.
Globalization continues to make a
major impact on global enterprises. As
trading partners across the globe con-
tinue to cross borders, it is critical for
employees to be skilled in global supply
chain management, international trade
regulations, cross-cultural commun-
ications, and global best practices. These
skills are no longer the exclusive domain
of large multi-national corporations.
The Internet has enabled even the small-
est of companies to leverage cross border
competencies.
Hardly a week passes without refer-
ence to the number of persons that will
be eligible to retire over the next five to10
years.This is an issue that impacts multi-
ple industry segments and governments
across the globe. The loss of legacy
knowledge is further compounded by the
continued rate of change within compa-
nies, and the expectation of productivity
growth. Todays employee has a wide
range of responsibilities that draw upon a
variety of competencies. Competencies
must be continually refreshed as new
products and services are brought to the
market. In addition, todays employees
are highly reliant on the mentoring and
leadership of more seasoned employees.
Having the ability to have access to lega-
cy knowledge is an important step.
T+D: What new metrics will be employed
to demonstrate the impact of learning on
individual or organizational performance?
EB: The metrics for learning will take on a
greater alignment with the metrics of the
business. For some time now, the learning
community has concerned itself with
metrics, such as the number of hours de-
livered, cost per hour delivered, number
of student days, and the student satisfac-
tion rating of a course. These metrics are
valuable from a production tracking per-
spective, but they may have little to do
with the actual business impact of a
training intervention. For example, if
youre conducting a sales training course,
in addition to knowing who went to the
course, how much time they spent at the
course, and what they thought of the
course, wouldnt you want to complete
the course evaluation cycle by under-
standing what the course did to improve
sales and customer satisfaction?
T+D: What will be the leading hot-button
topic for the profession this year? In five
years?
EB: The hot buttons today are aligning
learning with the business, achieving a
measurable return and business results,
and leveraging technology to drive a sig-
nificantly improved learning experience.
All working in concert to increase skill
levels much faster than we do it today.
These hot buttons have actually been
the focus of learning departments for sev-
eral years. However, the post dot com bust
years and world events have had a signifi-
cant impact on the strategic focus of
learning departments. Stressed corporate
profits and slow growth rates forced
learning into a cost-containment, or in
some companies a cost-reduction, mode.
Learning departments embraced e-learn-
ing as a cost-management play. Were all
very familiar with the concern that e-
learning failed to live up to the expecta-
tion that it would quickly become the
preferred method of learning delivery.
The measurement of learning impact
seems to continue to elude learning pro-
fessionals. The deployment of the Kirk-
patrick model has evolved into a model
that focuses on measuring ROI. Yet, we
still see most organizations operating at
an assessment level 2 or 3. Whats miss-
ing? We still have work to do on assess-
ment process engineering and the
implementation of enabling technologies
that create solid linkage between learn-
ing systems and enterprise systems.
Five years from now we will be firmly
in the midst of dealing with the chang-
ing workforce. The learning profession
will continue to play an instrumental
role in the development and retention of
employees. In the future, there will be
shortfall of qualified labor to fill open po-
sitions. There has been research pub-
lished to suggest that companies will
Facing the Future:
5 Questions
Copyright ASTD, January 2006
TDJanuary 2006 45
have to leverage workers that today
might be classified as unskilled labor to
fill this forecasted labor gap. This will
place a greater responsibility to educate
new hires in basic job skills.
Because this skilling must occur at
the very time companies are experienc-
ing labor shortages, the learning depart-
ment will be expected to significantly
reduce time to competency. Rapid learn-
ing development methods will become
critical to the process of learning, and
the ability to integrate, or embed, learn-
ing in the employees workflow will no
longer be something that is nice to have;
it will have to become the gold standard
for the delivery of learning.
T+D: What one skill should learning pro-
fessionals add to their repertoires in the
near future to assure their relevance to
their organizations?
EB: The learning professional of today
needs to understand how technology can
leverage learning and how to apply learn-
ing technology to drive business impact.
In other words, a solid blend of technolo-
gy and business skills to complement
their foundation as learning profession-
als is required.
Given we continue to see significant
influence of technology as a learning
enabler, learning professionals should
ensure they work to develop their work-
ing knowledge of information technolo-
gy. In concert with their development of
technology skills, learning professionals
should ensure they develop strong rela-
tionships with IT departments.
The development of business skills
will provide the learning professional
the ability to better understand how to
apply the right learning technology at
the right time. The emphasis on linking
learning with business results requires
todays learning professionals to speak
the business language of their company.
Developing financial and business skills,
such as capital investment analysis and
business case development, will enable
learning professionals to do a better job
of quantifying the positive business im-
pacts of learning.
T+D: What will it take to achieve true on-
demand, personalized learning on a
broad scale?
EB: The architecture of learning manage-
ment systems and knowledge manage-
ment systems will continue to evolve,
and move closer to merging. The applica-
tions will mature to help me get to the
learning I need, when I need it. The appli-
cation integration of learning and knowl-
edge systems will allow the learner to
operate in a learning environment that
guides them to the appropriate course-
workits conceivable that a kind of soft-
ware agent will assist with the analysis of
the learners needs and then map on-de-
mand, personalized learning to the em-
ployee.
On-demand learning will be also en-
abled through the continued reduction
in bandwidth cost. This will be true for
both hard wired and wireless networks.
Lower bandwidth costs will allow for
greater connectivity between the learner
and the source of the learning content.
More bandwidth for lower cost will facil-
itate the distribution of richer content,
including high quality video. The ability
to deliver learning with integrated video
will vastly enhance e-learning as we
know it today.
T+D: What emerging trend will explode as
a key element of workplace learning and
development in the next five years?
EB: Two trends will likely explode:
embedded workflow learning and
mobile learning. The two are actually
closely related.
As the access to learning for employ-
ees in a ubiquitous fashion continues to
evolve, the reality of embedded work-
flow learning becomes more likely. Suc-
cessful embedded learning is dependant
not just on learning pull, but also learn-
ing push. Learning chunked up into
smaller components of learningthat is
smaller than a traditional coursecalled
learning nuggets will be delivered to the
learner in concert with a just-in-time
learning approach. Learning will be em-
bedded in the employees work process
and will look less like a discreet learning
event.
M-learning, delivered through a vari-
ety of channelslaptops, MP3 players,
mobile phoneswill become a key ele-
ment for the success of embedded work-
flow learning. Mobile learning will
provide learner access to content any-
time, anywhere. Learning nuggets will be
pushed via m-learning distribution
channels just-in-time to the learner, trig-
gered by an event, or a transaction, in the
learners business process
T+D: In what new areas might employees
be trained during the next five years?
EB: Training will focus on those compe-
tencies that have the most significant
impact on driving business results. As
has traditionally been the case, employ-
ees will be trained in the skills that ad-
dress specific functional competency
requirements. Moving beyond functional
skills, weve heard from various leaders
there is an increasing interest in equip-
ping employees with skills sets that bet-
ter support the broader set of
responsibilities required of workers in a
knowledge-based economy. Critical
thinking skills, creative problem solving
skills, and the skills required to establish
and grow social networks will be more
and more important to an employees
success. TD
Copyright ASTD, January 2006
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