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May 3, 2013
Syndicate Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 4QFY13 1,344 901 592 3QFY13 1,400 864 508 % chg (qoq) (4.0) 4.3 16.5 4QFY12 1,337 790 309 % chg (yoy) 0.6 14.0 91.4
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others
`129 -
For 4QFY2013, Syndicate Bank announced a moderate set of numbers on the operating front, however reported improvement on the asset quality front. While NII came in flat yoy at `1,344cr (despite robust advance growth at 19.4% yoy), Non Interest income grew strongly at 33.3% yoy, leading to a moderate growth of 14.0% yoy in operating profit. Gross and Net NPA ratios, improved sequentially by 31bp and 9bp, respectively to 2.0% and 0.8%, which aided the bank to report 32.9% yoy lower provisioning expenses, thereby enabling it to clock 91.4% yoy earnings growth. NIM declines qoq; Slippages lower sequentially: During 4QFY2013, the bank witnessed a healthy growth in its business, as advances grew by 19.4% yoy, while growth in deposits came in at 17.4% yoy. Despite the 14.9% yoy growth witnessed in current deposits, the growth in CASA deposits remained moderate at 11.9% yoy, due to moderate growth of 10.9% yoy in saving deposits. CASA ratio for the bank was lower by 145bp qoq (136bp yoy) to 28.0%. The bank shed around `3,718cr of differential rate deposits during the quarter and hence as of 4QFY2013, the share of bulk deposits to total deposits stood reduced to 16.0% from 17.4% in 3QFY2013. NIMs came down by 32bp sequentially at 3.0%, primarily due to 40bp decline in yield on advances. The bank witnessed improvement on the asset quality front during the quarter, as slippages came in much lower at `624cr (annualized slippage ratio of 2.0%) as compared to average quarterly run rate of around `1,000cr for the last few quarters and were largely contributed by two chunky slippages amounting to ~`450cr. Aided by lower slippages, Gross NPA levels, on an absolute basis, came down by 5.7% qoq, while Net NPA levels remained flat sequentially. The banks PCR improved by 40bp sequentially to 83.4% and remains on the higher side within the PSU segment. During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth ~`1,000cr (which included ~`300-400cr exposure to Tamil Nadu SEB), thereby takings its outstanding restructured book to ~`9,216cr. Outlook and valuation: Although the bank has a moderate CASA and fee income franchise, with the CASA ratio of 28.0% as of 4QFY2013 and fee income at 0.7% of average assets as of FY2013, it has relatively comfortable asset quality outlook than peers. At CMP, it is currently trading at 0.6x FY2015E ABV, which in our view, factors in the relative comfort towards the asset quality. Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
3m (1.0) (3.0)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
FY2012 5,085 16.0 1,313 25.3 3.1 21.8 5.9 1.0 0.8 17.9
FY2013 5,454 7.3 2,004 52.6 2.8 33.3 3.9 0.8 1.0 22.8
FY2014E 5,963 9.3 1,630 (18.7) 2.6 27.1 4.8 0.7 0.7 16.0
FY2015E 6,791 13.9 1,830 12.3 2.6 30.4 4.3 0.6 0.7 15.9
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Akshay Narang
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 akshay.narang@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 4,381 3,465 831 85 3,037 1,344 399 357 172 42 19 166 1,744 843 579 264 901 364 160 (14) 218 537 (55) 592 (10.2)
3QFY13 4,221 3,333 813 75 2,821 1,400 269 234 132 35 28 74 1,669 805 550 254 864 530 208 6 316 334 (174) 508 (52.1)
% chg (qoq) 3.8 4.0 2.2 14.0 7.7 (4.0) 48.3 52.5 30.3 20.0 4.0 123.8 4.5 4.7 5.1 3.7 4.3 (31.4) (23.1) (31.1) 60.8 (68.4) 16.5 4190bp
4QFY12 4,125 3,300 755 70 2,788 1,337 300 286 159 13 30 98 1,636 846 594 252 790 542 321 (12) 234 248 (61) 309 (24.6)
% chg (yoy) 6.2 5.0 10.0 22.5 8.9 0.6 33.3 24.8 8.3 213.0 5.0 70.1 6.6 (0.4) (2.6) 4.8 14.0 (32.9) (50.1) 15.2 (6.8) 116.4 (10.1) 91.4 1440bp
FY2013 17,121 13,524 3,231 287 78 11,667 5,454 1,174 1,049 412 125 150 487 6,628 3,179 2,179 1,000 3,450 1,886 1,110 (18) 795 1,563 (441) 2,004 (28.2)
FY2012 15,268 12,371 2,736 151 10 10,183 5,085 1,076 987 466 88 9 513 6,161 2,814 1,892 923 3,347 1,919 1,415 38 467 1,427 114 1,313 8.0
% chg 12.1 9.3 18.1 90.4 653.3 14.6 7.3 9.2 6.3 (11.6) 41.4 1,566.7 (4.9) 7.6 13.0 15.2 8.3 3.1 (1.7) (21.6) 70.2 9.5 52.6 -
Actual 1,344 399 1,744 843 901 364 537 (55) 592
Estimates 1,446 317 1,762 863 899 497 403 (43) 445
% chg (7.0) 26.0 (1.1) (2.4) 0.2 (26.7) 33.5 29.2 33.1
May 3, 2013
4QFY13 147,569 185,356 79.6 13,937 38,017 51,954 28.0 12.6 9.0 6.6 10.04 2.97 48.3 2,979 2.0 1,125 0.8 83.4 2.0 0.3
3QFY13 134,629 164,075 82.1 11,430 36,930 48,360 29.5 11.4 7.8 6.7 10.5 3.29 48.2 3,160 2.3 1,141 0.9 83.0 2.9 0.4
% chg (qoq) 9.6 13.0 (244)bp 21.9 2.9 7.4 (145)bp 121bp 120bp (14)bp (42)bp (32)bp 10bp (5.7) (32)bp (1.4) (9)bp 40bp (90)bp (13)bp
4QFY12 123,620 157,941 78.3 12,129 34,295 46,424 29.4 12.2 8.9 6.9 11.0 3.6 51.7 3,183 2.5 1,185 1.0 80.1 4.0 0.7
% chg (yoy) 19.4 17.4 134bp 14.9 10.9 11.9 (136)bp 35bp 2bp (36)bp (97)bp (63)bp (338)bp (6.4) (54)bp (5.1) (20)bp 335bp (195)bp (42)bp
May 3, 2013
29.4
28.1
29.9
29.5
15.8 16.5
16.8 18.4
12.7 10.5
17.3 14.6
19.4 17.4
28.0
5.0 -
7.00
6.92
7.08
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
May 3, 2013
During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth ~`1,000cr during the quarter (which included ~`300-400cr exposure to Tamil Nadu SEB), thereby takings its outstanding restructured book to `9,216cr (6.1% of its overall loan book).
80.7
2.5 1.0
2.4 0.9
2.5 0.9
2.3 0.9
2,700
2,707
2,738
2,761
2,934
2.0 0.8
0.5
51.7
45.9
49.2
48.2
48.3
0.5 -
30.0 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
Source: Company, Angel Research
CAR on the lower side; Capital raising via Equity in current fiscal
As of 4QFY2013, the banks total CAR stood at 12.6%, with the tier-1 ratio at 8.96%, which remains on the lower side. In FY2012 the bank had received `327cr capital infusion from the Life Insurance Corporation of India. In FY2013, the bank raised ~`1,000cr of capital in form of Tier-II bonds. To propel its further growth plans, the bank has plans to raise equity capital in the current fiscal.
May 3, 2013
Investment arguments
Relatively better asset quality and moderate NIM to aid profitability
Slippages remained high for the last four quarters but have started to cool down. Slippages for 4QFY2013 were at `624cr, of which two accounts from the textiles and shipping accounted for ~`450cr. We believe asset-quality pressures are likely to be well within manageable limits for the bank, as evident from the comfortable provisioning coverage for the bank at 83.4% as of 4QFY2013 and also improvement in gross as well as net NPA levels. Further, recoveries and upgrades have been encouragingly high during FY2013. The banks conservative lending, visible in its low yield on advances (reported at 10.5% in FY2013 and 11.0% in FY2012), and moderate advances growth (16.3% CAGR over FY2010-13), are expected to lead to a relatively better asset quality than peer banks. We expect slippages to be at 3.0% in FY2014 and 2.5% in FY2015.
Earlier estimates FY2014 15.0 15.0 27.7 2.9 10.3 10.0 7.5 2.5 78.5 FY2015 15.0 16.0 26.9 2.8 15.1 10.0 7.5 2.5 75.0
Revised estimates FY2014 15.0 15.0 26.8 2.6 8.5 10.0 7.5 2.4 80.0 FY2015 15.0 15.0 26.3 2.6 14.4 10.0 7.5 2.3 75.0
May 3, 2013
Earlier estimates 6,135 1,205 7,340 3,494 3,846 1,572 2,273 682 1,591
FY2013 Revised estimates 5,963 1,274 7,238 3,472 3,766 1,533 2,233 603 1,630
Var. (%) (2.8) 5.8 (1.4) (0.6) (2.1) (2.5) (1.8) (11.6) 2.4
Earlier estimates 6,825 1,386 8,212 3,816 4,395 1,778 2,618 890 1,728
FY2014 Revised estimates 6,791 1,458 8,249 3,792 4,457 1,684 2,773 942 1,830
Var. (%) (0.5) 5.2 0.5 (0.6) 1.4 (5.2) 5.9 5.9 5.9
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
May 3, 2013
Oct-13
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
FY2013-15E EPS CAGR (%) 17.3 10.0 22.8 15.5 11.4 14.9 12.6 4.2 17.0 21.8 14.8 14.0 42.8 8.3 4.3 15.2 6.5 53.3 (5.2) 17.5 12.4 16.4 (3.5) 36.9 21.2 40.4 21.2
FY2015E RoA (%) 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5
FY2015E RoE (%) 17.6 13.7 21.8 15.6 17.1 22.1 14.2 13.4 16.0 15.1 15.6 14.1 13.3 14.4 15.3 11.3 14.9 13.1 16.0 13.1 16.3 17.0 15.2 12.6 15.3 14.7 11.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Syndicate Bank is a south-based mid-sized PSU bank, with an asset base in excess of `3.1lakh cr. The bank has 2,900+ branches, with a more spread out network than other regional banks, having 52% branches in the south and the remaining spread across several states of the country (12% of branches in the northern region). The bank also has a reasonable presence overseas, which accounts for ~17% of its total advances.
May 3, 2013
May 3, 2013
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.2 1.8 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.8 28.1 21.6 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 27.4 16.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.7 24.9 17.6 3.0 1.1 1.9 0.1 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.8 23.1 17.9 2.7 0.9 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.6 0.8 (0.2) 1.0 22.6 22.8 2.6 0.7 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 22.7 16.0 2.6 0.6 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.5 2.5 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 23.0 15.9 7.4 1.5 2.3 8.3 1.3 2.3 7.1 1.1 2.9 5.9 1.0 2.9 3.9 0.8 5.2 4.8 0.7 4.3 4.3 0.6 4.6 17.5 83.6 3.0 15.6 98.9 3.0 18.3 116.1 3.7 21.8 133.5 3.8 33.3 158.4 6.7 27.1 179.1 5.5 30.4 202.5 6.0 1.9 0.8 1.5 0.3 60.4 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 73.3 2.4 1.0 1.7 0.6 77.2 2.5 1.0 2.9 0.9 80.1 2.0 0.8 2.9 0.7 83.4 2.8 1.0 2.4 0.5 80.0 3.7 1.4 2.3 0.5 75.0 27.6 70.4 12.7 7.9 31.2 77.3 12.7 8.2 30.9 78.8 13.0 9.3 29.5 78.3 12.2 8.9 28.0 79.6 12.6 9.0 26.8 79.6 12.0 8.8 26.3 79.6 11.4 8.6 2.2 51.7 0.8 21.6 2.1 52.0 0.6 16.6 3.0 48.1 0.7 17.6 3.1 45.7 0.8 17.9 2.8 48.0 1.0 22.8 2.6 48.0 0.7 16.0 2.6 46.0 0.7 15.9 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
May 3, 2013
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Syndicate Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
May 3, 2013
11