Lies damned lies

and statistics
Issue 2, 2009

Print media RIP? The future of print and what it means for
brands
“There will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an
IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in
paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form. “  
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, quoted in the Washington Post, June 2008

In this second issue of ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics’, we’ve looked at a
single theme:  The future of print media, what it means for you, and which media
outlets are the most effective when it comes to communicating brand messages.

For further information, Dirk Singer

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dirk@thisiscow.com / Twitter - @dirkthecow

2009

Summary
“All the endless obituaries I've
r ead about t he deat h of
newspapers struc k me as
rather ludicrous - or, at the
least, extremely premature.
Until those of us who came of
age before the Internet all die
off, there will be a market for
print versions of newspapers.”
(Arianna Huffington)
The first thing to say is that
we’re not of the “newspapers
RIP” school of thought.  Or at
least not completely.
Unlike Steve Ballmer, we think
that just as TV didn’t kill radio,
neither will the Internet kill off
print.  However, we do think
that the newspaper landscape
is shifting beyond recognition.
Looking at ad revenues and
circulations, print media overall
is on a downward trajectory.    and interactive media – Web
In the future, print media will
be leaner when it comes to
circulations, more specialised
when it comes to audiences
and having to embrace a
hybrid future where it actively
offers content on the Web and
interacts with online audiences.  
Despite the fact that it’s also hit
by falling ad revenues, we
think that television has a
brighter future, as it can
embrace the Internet better –
just think of the occasions
where you might have had
your laptop open while
watching TV.
If we look at how things stand
today, the Internet has
overtaken newspapers as a
primary news source.  
As a result, broadly speaking,
when it comes to essential and
trusted news sources, visual
and TV – come top, followed
by static media – print papers
and analogue radio.
40,000

Print Web
30,000

20,000

10,000

0
Guardian Telegraph Mail Sun Times Independent Mirror
The reach of UK national newspapers in thousands,
ABCe figures January 2009

Newspapers are more when thinking about how to use

its content, setting up the web-
popular than ever
based Telegraph TV in early
Despite all the talk of the
2008 featuring the likes of
difficulties print media has been
Anne Widdicombe and Lloyd
facing, newspapers are actually
Grossman.
more popular than they’ve ever
been.   
Meanwhile, in the US, Nielsen
figures showed that the online
The reason is of course the
audience for newspapers grew
Internet.
by 12% over the past year,
even as their print editions ran
In January, The Guardian
into difficulties.
online was attracting almost 30
million unique users, at the !
The New York Times and
same time as the print edition
Similarly, despite the ageing soon The Guardian, have also
had an ABC circulation figure
demographic of its print started to engage the
of 358,000, minus 5% year on
audience, the Daily Telegraph upmarket, educated iPhone /
year.
has a print circulation of iPod t ouc h audience by
842,000 and a web reach of releasing an application via
Lately the Guardian has
26 million. Apple’s iTunes store that allows
been using its online operations
the newspaper to be read via
to become a global news
The Daily Telegraph has Apple’s smart phone.  
source, with greater investment
also had a progressive attitude
in its US business.   
 recording a drop, the biggest threat to
Despite this, the future is
newspapers is the decline in ad revenues.
uncertain
At the same time, there is a question mark on According to Enders Analysis, UK newspaper

whether the Internet can in revenues are projected to drop

the long-term bail out a lot by 21%, compared to a 10%

drop when it comes to TV.
of newspapers.

Writing on Australian Meanwhile in the US, eMarketer

marketing website predicts that from 2005-2012

‘Mumbrella’, journalism there will be seven straight years

of ad revenue decline, totalling
professor Stephen Quinn,
put the challenge into 42.5%.

perspective by pointing And Classifieds are vanishing as

out that even The New
York Times would only be
able to fund a fifth of its
current newsgathering budget with what it makes
from web-based advertising.
In fact, while the February ABC circulation figures
showed every UK national newspaper except the
Daily Star (which cut its cover price to 20p)
a newspaper revenue stream.
In his Mumbrella article,
Professor Quinn cites the fact that in 2000,
classifieds accounted for 40% of US newspaper
profits. Now they account for 23%. This is
thanks to classifieds sites such as Craiglist and
Gumtree – which in many cases allow people to
post for free.

“Newspapers were a nice business. Publishers could make the product insanely cheap (remember the penny
press), and the advertising would cover the expenses, plus generate fantastic profits.
“However, this is clearly over. It’s done. It worked for a long time, but now, like trans-Atlantic leisure travel in
big passenger ships, it will never work again.”

(Online journalism lecturer, Mindy McAdams)


Print media is no
longer seen as
essential
The reality is, the daily
newspaper read is no longer
as essential as it once used to
be. In fact, fewer and fewer
consumers see print
newspapers as a prime source
of news.
At the end of 2008, TNS
released its global ‘Digital
Worlds / Digital Lives’ study.
Out of all countries
surveyed, the UK had the
lowest amount of trust for
newspapers, with 23% saying
they ‘highly trusted’ (an 8+ on
High trust’
Friends
TV
Online News
Newspapers
Blogs
a score of 1-10)
“The thing that worries me most at the moment
newspapers.
about the condition of journalism is, frankly,
who’s going to pay for the journalists and the
35% said they
highly trusted TV,
journalism in 10 years’ time? My kids wouldn’t
while 45% trusted dream of buying a newspaper — and we are a
friends, which beat newspaper household.”
online news into BBC Presenter and former newspaper editor, Andrew Marr
second place with
40%.
Meanwhile in the US, a
However, what’s important
Pew Research Study said that
is that this definition of online
70% of Americans see TV as
news does not include blogs,
an important news source
which had a high trust rating of
(down from 82% in 2002),
only 6% in the UK.
40% see the Internet as an
This links into the trend
important news source (up
we’ve just mentioned: Thanks
from 14% in 2002), while only
to their online editions,
35% say the same about
newspapers are reaching more
newspapers (down from 50%
people than ever – just not in
in 2003).
print.
UK Global
45% 42%
35% 41%
40% 40%
23% 39%
6% 10%
Regional papers have
particular difficulties
“Recently, Paul Potts, the chief
executive of the Press Association,
Britain’s biggest news agency, told
me that judges had complained to
him that important trials were going
unreported because newspapers had
cut back on the number of
journalists.”
Ex-editor Kelvin MacKenzie, The Sun 12 March 2009
essential reading in the same way that the online
There is evidence that unlike the nationals, editions of the nationals have. In fact, in the US,
regional newspapers are not that successful in a study by Northwestern University showed that
making the transition online. In December UK 62% of consumers have never visited their local
blogger Martin Belam found out that no regional newspaper website.
newspaper had more than 127 Google Reader
subscribers. According to Enders Analysis (Financial Times 12
March), local newspapers will see an ad drop of
Google Reader is only one of several ways to 48% from 2007-2012. Newsquest, the owner of
subscribe to online ‘RSS’ (live) feeds, but to put a number of UK regional papers, reported
this into its proper context: In December The property advertising down 58% in the last quarter
Guardian had 118,000 Google Reader of 2008.
subscribers with a print circulation of 349,000, or
a ratio of 2:9 to 1. And despite that, as Kelvin MacKenzie said in his
Sun piece, they perform a vital public service,
By comparison, the ‘best’ performing UK regional local papers might only be missed once they are
in Google Reader subscribers was the Eastern gone.
Daily Press (Norwich) with 127 subscribers, and a
print circulation of 63,508….a ratio of 500:1. According to the Pew Research Center in the US,
only 33% of consumers would miss their local
That shows that though web visits to regional paper a lot if it closed.
newspapers may be high, they haven’t become

The importance of word of
mouth and personalisation
In fact, thanks to the advent of social media,
word of mouth is becoming more important when
it comes to spreading news.
We’ve already mentioned the TNS Digital study,
which showed that in the UK friends are the most
trusted source of news.
At the same time, in the US AdAge published a
survey showing that Facebook, which is rapidly
becoming the Google of social networks, drives
more traffic to certain key websites than Google
itself, despite having a third of its traffic.
Meanwhile according to Hitwise, the micro-
blogging platform Twitter overtook UK
newspapers in terms of online reach in March.

"Imagine that you walked into a 400-year old market where the clerks hand you and every
other customer an identical bag containing exactly the same mix of some 50 items and they
tell you it contains what the supermarket's manager thought you and everyone else should or
would like to eat. Despite its venerable history, would you shop at this market again?"
(Online journalism pundit Vin Crosbie)
 "Not all readers demand such quality, but the educated, opinion-leading, news-junkie core of the audience
always will. They will insist on it as a defense against "persuasive communication," the euphemism for
advertising, public relations and spin that exploits the confusion of information overload.

“Readers need and want to be equipped with truth-based defenses.”

Philip Meyer, author of The Vanishing Newspaper: Saving Journalism in the Information Age

So what’s the future? A hybrid world?

In 2004, Philip Meyer was in a sense ahead of his Earlier we quoted political blogger and online
time when he wrote a book on “The Vanishing publisher Arianna Huffington in mocking the
Newspaper.” constant obituaries of newspapers.

Last year he published a follow-up essay where he

In a Guardian interview, Huffington saw
said that the way forward for print journalism was
not to be all things to all people, but to appeal to a convergence happening, with traditional

narrower group of consumers who value newspapers like The Guardian taking on more of
investigative journalism and in-depth features of the the persona normally associated with online news
type that online-media often can’t deliver. outlets, and large online news outlets like The

Indeed, research from Deloitte, the business
advisory firm, showed that 73% of Brits admitted to
enjoying reading printed magazines even though
they know they could find most of the same
information online – and magazines are by their
nature more specialised and niche than
newspapers.
Huffington Post doing the type of reporting that
used to be the preserve of traditional papers.
We’d agree that talking about the death of
newspapers is premature. And this convergence
argument makes sense. In future there will be far
fewer print media outlets.

The ones that exist will have successfully made the

transition online, and the ones that still appear in
print will appeal to a smaller audience willing to
pay money for quality reporting – with quality
rather than quantity being key.
 So if you are about to draw up your
What does this mean for
brand plans, what do all these facts and
you? Some conclusions stats mean for you? We’ve drawn out

five conclusions.

1 – Don’t look at
online exposure as
second best. It’s
not.
From experience we know that
for a lot of marketers, that
piece in print is perceived as
being high value, while online
is second best. A great piece
of print coverage seemingly
has that psychological trophy
value.
But the facts speak for
themselves: Online does better
when it comes to reach and it
does better when it comes to
influence.
And online coverage is by its
nature more viral.
Think about it: You are more
likely to check out a website,
share something, or look for
further info if already online,
than if reading a paper on the
way to work.
In fact, whatever your
demographic, they will be
online. For example,
according to the TNS ‘Digital
Worlds’ study we’ve already
quoted, UK housewives spend
47% of their free time online.
2 – Move TV to the
top of the brand
queue
Our recommendation for a
generic brand plan, would be
to place broadcast and online
joint first, and print second
(with the caveat of specialised
titles and magazines having
more importance).
In Summary
1 - Online exposure isn’t second best
Online news outperforms print on reach
AND credibility. Also, think about all the
times you forwarded on an online article
vs kept and handed on a print article.
2 - TV is holding its own
“TV usage is at an all-time high, and yet
there's a lot more people using the
Internet. Part of the answer is that it's
happening simultaneously" (Nielsen)
3 - Make online integrated
Rather than having it sit in an isolated
‘silo’, just as you wouldn’t do it for print,
radio etc.
4 - Look at interactive over static media
See the diagram on the previous page.
Static media is there to inform, interactive
to engage.
5 - Publish your own content
If every consumer is now a potential media
publisher, so is every brand.
That’s because, according to
several studies, TV and Internet
use often successfully ‘bleeds’
into each other. According to
a Nielsen study in the US, “TV
usage is at an all-time high,
and yet there's a lot more
people using the Internet. Part
of the answer is that it's
happening simultaneously."
That’s mirrored by UK research
carried out by video search
engine Blinxx, which shows
that 70% of Brits surf the
Internet and watch TV at the
same time.
Again, they are much more
likely to check out online
anything that they see, and
that makes broadcast exposure
potentially very valuable.
Indeed, the most successful TV
shows, like the series Lost,
recognise that the Web isn’t
canabilising their viewers, it’s a
place where they can extend
their brand.
Meanwhile, Web only TV
shows (as opposed to YouTube
style clips) have had
questionable success.
endear them to their
readers.
Then there’s the possibility
of moving from regional to
local to grass-roots. To
engage communities at
neighbourhood level
through gate-keepers such
as clubs, networks and
associations.

As reported by AdAge, 64% of For example, one such

web TV viewers drop off after
the first episode and by episode
ten, there are not many viewers
left.
It seems that though we’re
happy to have our news via the
gatekeeper in the UK is the
parish-pump, which
syndicates editorial to 6000
parish newsletters – the
type of grass-roots media P&G job-swappers at Google's
normally below the radar of New York office. 'Interactive
most brand programmes.
isn't a group, it's everybody's

Internet, we still want our TV job”

from the box.
3 – Regionally,
look at websites,
communities
As local print declines there’s
some evidence that local
websites will fill part of the
void. Look at any locality in
the UK, and there will be one
or more bloggers writing about
their community.
No, they don’t have the
resources of a newspaper, but
they often have a quirky style
and local knowledge that
Then there is local radio. While
commercial radio has also seen
advertising revenues drop, its
low cost, flexibility, and the
growth in digital and Internet
radio, means that it is seen as a
more ‘stable’ medium.
4 – Make online
media an integral
part of your
campaign
"The worst answer you can hear
from an agency is, 'Don't
worry, we have a group to
handle interactive,' said David
Bell, a Google consultant,
during a session with some
David Bell, Google, quoted in
the Wall Street Journal
Online campaigns shouldn’t sit
in isolation, instead all the
media elements of your
programme should join up the
dots. It makes as little sense to
have online elements treated
separately from the rest of the
plan as print.
As a result, ask how can offline
and online content work
together? With the emphasis
on online content not being an
added bonus, but very much
part of the main event.
 Digital hoof prints
Where to find us online
5 – Finally - publish
your own content
It’s been said countless times
that today anyone can be a
media publisher.
Anyone can write online
content, anyone can upload a
video, anyone can post pictures,
anyone can start and take part
in a conversation.
How to initiate and publish
content online and to avoid
brand speak is the subject of our
next report.
However, in the meantime see
our presentation, social media in
the recession
If you found this report
useful
We have a summary
keynote presentation up on
Slideshare -
Website
http://www.thisiscow.com
Tumblr
http://museumofcow.tumblr.com
Blog
http://www.thisisherd.com
Research blog
http://liesdamnedliesstatistics.com
http://www.slideshare.net/
dirkthecow
You’ll also find our
presentation ‘justifying social
media to internal clients’ on
there, which serves as a
companion to this one.
We’d be happy to come in
and present either to your brand
teams. We can also create
bespoke reports around your
particular market, please
contact Dirk Singer about this.
Creative commons
With thanks to the following
for use of the images (for each
go to flickr.com/username)
DRB62, Jasonmchuff,
Canpac, KYZ, Ohglory,
jojakeman, ehnmark,
liberalmind, avlxyz,
thomasroche, svadilfari, vidiot
Netvibes
http://www.netvibes.com/cowpr
Second Brain
http://www.cowpr.secondbrain.com
Twitter
@thisiscow
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