Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
09 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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09 May 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
382.10
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Buy
Target
566
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
290.00
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
346
0.66
COBHAM
264.30
190.10
264.30
Neutral
Buy
298
0.82
MEGGITT
496.50
364.30
496.50
Neutral
Sell
429
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1162.00
780.75
1162.00
Neutral
Neutral
1112
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1261.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1080
0.71
1684.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Sell
1592
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
289.60
173.60
289.60
Neutral
Neutral
Target
275
2.02
INCHCAPE
522.00
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
514
1.48
LOOKERS
98.50
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
109
1.23
PENDRAGON
23.00
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Buy
34
1.11
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
308.80
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-807
1.94
734.50
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Buy
950
1.17
56.08
25.29
56.08
Sell
Sell
1.89
285.40
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-174
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1625.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3232
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
555.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
593
0.55
DIAGEO
1987.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1788
0.55
SABMILLER
3655.50
2348.50
3655.50
Sell
Buy
4097
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
297.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
662
1.23
CARCLO
385.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
401
0.73
2484.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2081
1.04
254.90
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
349
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2574.00
2080.27
2593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11944
1.45
VICTREX
1662.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1459
1.14
SYNTHOMER
201.00
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
215
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
216.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
381
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
82.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
215.10
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
320.50
114.00
320.90
Neutral
Buy
441
1.58
BELLWAY
1315.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1806
1.15
2097.00
1180.00
2140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3223
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
176.50
115.50
181.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
334
0.83
757.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
538
1.20
CARILLION
276.80
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
745
1.12
CLARKE (T)
51.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
0.82
280.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
541
0.57
1384.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
808
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
970.00
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1594
1.01
KELLER
850.50
348.25
863.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2011
1.26
1195.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3185
0.97
70.75
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
207
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
126.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
560.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3202
0.87
15.75
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1092.00
496.69
1099.00
Neutral
Buy
1369
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
215.00
107.30
215.00
Neutral
Buy
274
1.09
SIG
166.80
82.30
166.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
487
1.79
2.00
2.00
15.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
48
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
91.30
40.28
96.55
Neutral
Buy
122
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1457.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2450
2.01
WOLSELEY
3267.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5283
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1286.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
789
0.75
671.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
866
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
115.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
1.29
INVENSYS
397.50
198.90
397.50
Neutral
Sell
353
1.41
LAIRD
201.50
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
75
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1559.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1208
1.00
RENISHAW
1655.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2429
1.26
SPECTRIS
2127.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Neutral
2266
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.16
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
174.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
417
1.58
XAAR
527.00
185.00
527.00
Neutral
Sell
239
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
82.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
97
1.28
BODYCOTE
524.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
520
1.60
CASTINGS
345.75
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
716
0.99
VESUVIUS
363.20
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
508
2.20
FENNER
365.90
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
1.42
HALMA
516.50
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
404
0.75
448.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
335
1.37
1278.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1398
1.41
259.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
1.82
2929.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2242
1.00
256.90
177.00
257.40
Neutral
Sell
216
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.25
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Sell
29
SPIRAX-SARCO
2758.00
1900.00
2758.00
Sell
Sell
2340
0.84
VITEC GROUP
616.50
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
606
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2211.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2077
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
400.00
398.50
523.50
Buy
Strong Buy
682
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
296.40
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
187
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
381.00
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
211
0.57
TESCO
375.25
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
268
0.68
81.50
18.88
82.25
Neutral
Sell
60
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1986.00
1167.00
1999.00
Neutral
Neutral
2125
0.62
CRANSWICK
1080.00
732.50
1080.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2099
0.43
DAIRY CREST
468.30
304.30
468.30
Neutral
Neutral
510
0.94
DEVRO
331.70
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
519
0.32
72.50
54.50
137.75
Neutral
Sell
-183
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
843.00
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1563
0.71
2774.00
2007.00
2845.00
Neutral
Neutral
2801
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.25
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
450.00
224.40
450.00
Neutral
Sell
377
0.54
1349.00
1000.00
1467.00
Neutral
Sell
1020
1.27
657.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
291
0.95
36.85
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Neutral
40
1.51
142.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.13
28.25
19.50
42.50
Sell
Strong Buy
106
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
385.70
189.00
385.70
Neutral
Buy
521
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
827.50
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1571
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
50.25
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91
1.25
KINGFISHER
321.30
254.10
329.70
Neutral
Buy
405
0.94
416.70
312.20
416.70
Neutral
Buy
537
0.65
55.00
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
62
1.04
319.00
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
367
0.47
NEXT
4601.00
2899.00
4601.00
Sell
Sell
3895
0.67
TED BAKER
1337.00
830.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
682
0.55
68.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
800.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
575
0.39
OPTOS
158.00
145.75
257.75
Neutral
Neutral
168
1.18
759.50
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
682
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
742.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
723
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
335.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
302
0.92
84.13
55.25
95.00
Neutral
Buy
107
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1068.00
469.00
1068.00
Sell
Sell
Target
548
Beta
0.74
541.50
200.30
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1268
1.18
61.50
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
47
0.90
296.00
296.00
632.00
Buy
Strong Buy
515
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
133.20
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
683
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
205.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-490
0.90
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09 May 2013
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1253.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1243
0.53
AMLIN
422.20
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
101
0.46
BEAZLEY
226.50
132.50
229.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1267
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
528.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1955
0.30
HISCOX
558.00
379.26
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2526
0.48
877.50
659.00
877.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1690
0.31
111.50
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
911
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
478.00
345.00
484.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2876
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2395.00
1944.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4013
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
100.00
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Neutral
105
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
338.20
158.00
338.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
1.01
792.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
678
0.39
GREENE KING
737.00
474.30
737.50
Neutral
Sell
653
0.93
LADBROKES
199.90
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
255
0.93
1912.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1502
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
551.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
651
1.40
342.80
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
316
1.12
134.90
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
49
1.25
10.00
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.27
167.40
113.20
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
481.60
269.60
488.10
Neutral
Sell
326
WETHERSPOON (JD)
594.00
371.30
607.50
Neutral
Buy
747
0.69
WHITBREAD
2655.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
2011
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
425.80
243.75
430.70
Neutral
Sell
259
0.87
MARSTON'S
147.10
94.40
148.20
Neutral
Sell
18
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
323.90
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
707
1.25
CHESNARA
233.75
155.25
250.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
391
0.70
181.00
106.00
181.00
Sell
Strong Buy
357
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
215.50
138.70
215.50
Neutral
Sell
203
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1166.00
660.00
1166.00
Neutral
Sell
1015
1.71
581.00
303.40
581.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1505
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
117.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-594
0.37
862.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1769
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
47.00
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
159
1.03
704.50
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4134
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
995.00
672.50
1001.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7760
1.00
INFORMA
497.90
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
1.53
ITE GROUP
284.10
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.45
ITV
128.10
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
1.54
17.50
4.88
17.50
Sell
Buy
788
1.27
1178.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
319
0.63
77.50
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2656
0.79
278.25
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
878
0.16
34.16
26.85
34.29
Neutral
Sell
-592
0.50
STV GROUP
133.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
269
0.79
ST.IVES
149.50
67.50
149.50
Neutral
Sell
226
1.50
89.25
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-259
1.59
719.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1753
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
154.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1370
WPP
1119.00
743.00
1119.00
Neutral
Sell
-515
1.35
HIBU
0.38
0.26
3.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
821
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1666.00
1553.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1243
1.74
227.00
215.00
290.30
Neutral
Neutral
228
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
941.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
849
1.41
1908.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2866
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
350.15
293.55
397.95
Buy
Strong Buy
1010
#NA
LONMIN
299.20
240.84
504.24
Neutral
Buy
380
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5100.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2982
0.34
RIO TINTO
3101.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2451
1.50
3.63
17.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
166
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2127
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1288.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1184.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1233
0.80
BP
467.05
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1550
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
279.00
248.20
314.30
Neutral
Sell
-16
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.88
7.66
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
14
0.82
815.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
444
1.31
1.36
69.00
55.00
122.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
300
392.00
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
284
1.43
2313.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9367
0.84
385.00
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
247
0.53
1017.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
901
1.04
801.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
790
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
118.25
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
256
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
393.00
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
324
0.69
4639.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4681
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.43
0.36
3.80
Buy
Sell
1.01
3318.00
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6387
0.47
BTG
355.30
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
168
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
693.00
444.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
728
0.25
1638.00
1317.50
1687.50
Neutral
Sell
1491
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.10
1.55
4.08
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.35
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
1906.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1348
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
44.00
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-136
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
417.80
274.50
417.80
Neutral
Sell
-594
1.18
BRITISH LAND
618.00
475.40
618.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1769
1.06
Target
Beta
35.50
22.75
35.50
Sell
Strong Buy
159
0.85
935.50
595.00
935.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4134
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2382.00
1708.00
2392.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7760
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
151.00
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
0.99
GRAINGER
145.50
83.10
145.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
559.00
366.00
559.00
Strong Sell
Strong Buy
1287
1.10
HAMMERSON
544.00
409.20
545.00
Neutral
Buy
788
1.19
HELICAL BAR
259.50
164.00
259.50
Neutral
Buy
319
0.77
911.00
704.00
911.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2656
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
348.20
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
878
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.50
127.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-592
0.73
407.00
325.00
407.00
Neutral
Sell
269
0.42
335.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
226
0.35
69.00
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-259
1.19
SAVILLS
601.50
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1753
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
628.00
492.00
628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1370
1.05
SEGRO
278.10
209.40
278.10
Neutral
Sell
-515
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
277.70
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
821
1.59
202.50
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-18
1.01
UNITE GROUP
357.00
180.25
360.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.38
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1173
1.03
390.00
213.25
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1330
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
121.50
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
120
0.73
2208.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1299
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
442.10
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1328
1.00
KOFAX
317.00
240.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
317
1.11
26.00
18.25
26.50
Neutral
Sell
24
0.85
679.50
426.17
706.00
Neutral
Buy
972
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
148.00
131.00
224.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
304
0.74
71.50
70.25
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-93
0.52
1823.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2051
0.76
347.00
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
412
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
460.90
237.30
468.00
Neutral
Sell
144
BREWIN DOLPHIN
211.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
118
0.73
10000.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
8949
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
404.50
247.50
405.00
Neutral
Sell
198
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
135.87
190.00
Neutral
Sell
128
0.69
1042.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
209
0.86
95.40
65.90
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
101
0.89
3.33
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
173.50
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
62
1.44
ICAP
300.00
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
228
1.07
HELPHIRE GROUP
428.20
227.30
428.60
Neutral
Sell
154
1.70
INVESTEC
482.40
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
112
1.56
1353.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Sell
-531
1.15
123.80
63.25
125.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.32
1495.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1099
0.75
SCHRODERS
2415.00
1166.00
2415.00
Sell
Sell
1176
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1887.00
966.00
1897.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3776
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
210.25
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
289
0.92
AGGREKO
1693.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1290
1.05
AMEC
1051.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1124
1.04
590.00
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
316
1.63
1069.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
658
0.48
545.00
324.00
557.00
Neutral
Buy
795
0.76
1278.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
977
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
435.00
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
439
0.39
CAPITA
909.00
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
519
0.51
56.50
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
66
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
854.50
616.00
856.50
Neutral
Sell
600
BERENDSEN
768.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
972
1.05
DE LA RUE
932.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
592
#NA
DIGNITY
1425.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
810
0.22
DIPLOMA
590.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
484
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
254.10
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
319
1.04
FILTRONA
741.00
428.00
744.00
Neutral
Sell
345
1.13
G4S
259.60
240.00
313.50
Buy
Buy
289
0.58
92.85
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
120
1.10
HOMESERVE
213.70
137.50
249.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
487
0.94
INTERSERVE
487.60
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
680
1.28
3301.00
2423.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1438
0.78
43.25
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
93
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.88
21.25
36.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
MENZIES (JOHN)
777.50
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
1.43
380.00
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
317
1.42
MITIE GROUP
266.40
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
339
0.55
94.00
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
236
0.33
PAYPOINT
839.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
688
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
223.70
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
286
1.33
REGUS
167.30
82.65
169.00
Neutral
Sell
106
1.46
93.00
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
54
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
511.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
527
0.90
RICARDO
385.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
467
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
214.50
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
306
1.24
RPC GROUP
391.20
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
530
0.78
RPS GROUP
225.20
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
245
1.51
SERCO GROUP
612.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
573
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
84.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
167
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
47.00
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Neutral
52
1.26
152.00
73.25
153.00
Neutral
Sell
50
0.63
51.50
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
60
0.93
331.00
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
618
0.86
75.50
42.00
75.50
Sell
Strong Buy
182
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
282.30
200.70
288.70
Neutral
Buy
338
42.00
27.28
43.08
Neutral
Strong Buy
83
0.70
661.50
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
587
0.53
Beta
0.91
85.50
67.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
131
1.24
1224.00
695.00
1224.00
Sell
Sell
748
0.09
193.05
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
167
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
259.20
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
177
Beta
1.30
405.25
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
456
0.98
CLARKSON
1611.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1475
0.80
EASYJET
1150.00
481.20
1150.00
Neutral
Sell
671
0.77
FIRST GROUP
216.80
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
561
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
960.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
395
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1517.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1855
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
208.20
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
251
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
334.50
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
611
STAGECOACH GROUP
313.00
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
364
0.89
54.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-43
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
377.50
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
510
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
818.00
641.00
825.50
Neutral
Neutral
888
0.50
PENNON GROUP
677.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
826
0.59
SSE
1569.00
1294.00
1569.00
Neutral
Buy
1833
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1825.00
1513.00
1828.00
Neutral
Sell
1608
0.35
744.00
617.50
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
715
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
09 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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