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CONTENTS

Contents Page
Contents 1
DECLARATION 2
TITLE 3
Introduction 4-6
Methodology 7-16
Result 17
Conclusion 18-19












2
DECLARATION

This is to certify that the assignment report submitted is based on my own work.
Signature : ...
Name : Ummu Sheikhah Binti Mohd. Janis
I/C Number : 940830-12-5858
Date : 22 April 2013


















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MATHEMATICS (T)
SECOND TERM 954/2







4
INTRODUCTION
Logistic Equation
The logistics equation is a differential equation that models population growth. Often in
practice a differential equation models some physical situation, and you should ``read it'' as
doing so.
Exponential growth:

This says that the ``relative (percentage) growth rate'' is constant. As we saw before, the
solutions are

Note that this model only works for a little while. In everyday life the growth couldn't
actually continue at this rate indefinitely. This exponential growth model ignores limitations
on resources, disease, etc. Perhaps there is a better model?
Over time we expect the growth rate should level off, i.e., decrease to 0. What about

(7.1)

where is some large constant called the carrying capacity, which is much bigger
than at time 0. The carrying capacity is the maximum population that the
environment can support. Note that if , then so the population declines.
The differential equation is called the logistic model (or logistic differential equation). There
are, of course, other models one could use, e.g., the Gompertz equation.
First question: are there any equilibrium solutions to , i.e., solutions with
, i.e., constant solution.
In order that then , so the two equilibrium solutions
are and .


5
The logistic differential equation is separable, so you can separate the variables with one
variable on one side of the equality and one on the other. This means we can easily solve the
equation by integrating. We rewrite the equation as

Now separate:

and integrate both sides

On the left side we get

Thus

so

Now exponentiate both sides:
where A = e
c

Thus

So,



6
Note that also makes sense and gives an equilibrium solution. In general we
have . In any particular case we can determine as a function
of by using that
so,























7
METHODOLOGY
Question 1
|
.
|

\
|
=
k
P
rP
dt
dP
1
|
.
|

\
|
=
k
P
r
dt
dP
P
1
1

Relative growth rate = |
.
|

\
|
=
k
P
r
dt
dP
P
1
1

When P is small, , 0
k
P

1 1 |
.
|

\
|

k
P

On thus r
dt
dP
P
~
1
(constant)
Hence, the relative growth rate is growth rate divided by population size or
dt
dP
P
1
.















8
Question 2
|
.
|

\
|
=
k
P
rP
dt
dP
1
= rP |
.
|

\
|
k
P k

=
) ( P k
k
rP


a) P< k
1 <
k
P

0 1 >
k
P

r > 0 , P > 0
Therefore, >
dt
dP
0
Thus, the positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing.
b) P> k
1 >
k
P

0 1 > +
k
P

0 1 <
k
P

r< 0 , P< 0
Therefore,
dt
dP
< 0
Thus, the negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing.




9
Question 3
a) P
o
< k

0 1
1
>
<
k
P
k
P


0 >
dt
dP

That means, growth rate is positive at the interval state and P (population) is increasing and
population to that value of k.
P > k

0 1
1
<
>
k
P
k
P


r< 0 , P < 0
0 <
dt
dP

That means, growth rate is negative at the initial state and P (population) is decreasing and
population to that value of k.

b) P < k
P = k = 0
dt
dP
the growth rate stops
For constant growth, 0 =
dt
dP


0 1 = |
.
|

\
|

k
p
rP



10
0
0
0
>
=
=
butP
P
rP
or
P
k
P
k
P
=
=
= |
.
|

\
|

1
1
0 1

For increasing growth, 0 >
dt
dP

0 1 > |
.
|

\
|

k
P
rP
0
0
>
>
P
rP
or
1
1
0
0 1
<
>
>
>
k
P
k
P
k
P
k
P

For declining growth, 0 <
dt
dP

0 1 < |
.
|

\
|

k
P
rP

0
0
<
<
P
rP
or
k P
k P
k
P
k
P
>
<
<
<
1
0 1










11
Question 4

k
rP
r
dP
dv
k
rP
rP v
k
rP
rP
dt
dP
k
P
rP
dt
dP
2
1
2
2
=
=
=
|
.
|

\
|
=

v
max
when
2
2
2
2
0
2
0
k
P
P
r
Pk
rP rk
k
rP
r
k
rP
r
dP
dv
=
=
=
=
=
=

Therefore, the maximum value of
dt
dP


rk
rk rk
k k r
k
k
k r
k
k
k r
k
P
rP
4
1
4
1
2
1
4
1
2
1
4
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2

|
.
|

\
|

|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|




12

} }
} }
} }
} }
=

=
rdt
P k P
k
rdt
P k P
k
rdt dP
k
P Pk
dP
rdt
k
P
P
dP
k
P
rP
dt
dP
) (
) (
) 1 (
) 1 (

P k
B
P
A
P k P
k

+ =
) (

k =A(k - P) + BP
let P = 0 let P = k
k = Ak k = Bk
A = 1 B = 1
P k P P k P
k

+ =

1 1
) (
c rt
P k P
+ =

+
}
1 1


}
}
+ =

P c rt dP
P k
d
P
1 1

ln P ln (kP) dP = rt + c

c rt
P k
P
+ =

ln


rt
e
P k
P
=


P
c rt
e
k
+
= |
.
|

\
|
1
1



13
P =
1
1

+
k
e
c rt

P =
c rt
e
+
(k1)
P =
c rt c r
e ke
+ +

P =
c rt
c rt
e
ke
+
=
+ 1

Let A e
c
=
P =
( )
) (
c rt
c rt
e e
e e kA
. 1+


P =
rt
rt
Ae
kAe
+ 1

When t = 0, P = P
P =
A
kA
+ 1

P ( 1+A) = kA
P + P A = kA
P = kAP A
= A (k P)
A
P k
P
o
o
=


Hence, P =
rt
rt
Ae
kAe
+ 1
, where A =
o
o
P k
P







Question 5


14
rt
rt
Ae
kAe
P
+
=
1
,
A e
c
=















Question 6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

time
Graph P versus t
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
t P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
0 300 200 100 400 500
20 587 322 224 644 802
40 825 416 411 831 943
60 940 465 593 931 985
80 981 486 709 973 996
100 994 494 764 990 999
120 998 498 786 996 1000
140 999 499 795 999 1000
160 1000 500 798 999 1000
180 1000 500 799 1000 1000
200 1000 500 800 1000 1000
220 1000 500 800 1000 1000
240 1000 500 800 1000 1000
260 1000 500 800 1000 1000


15


















3.2 + 4000r = 200 rk ______1
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
0 200 400 600 800 1000

P

t
Pt
Graph P against t
P Pt
40 1.06
77 1.71
125 2.54
196 3.14
240 3.62
316 3.93
371 3.88
534 3.29
603 2.62
658 2.05
701 1.57
712 0.771
776 0.306
791 0.143
794 0.143
796 0.0571
798 0.0159
799 0.0286
800 0


16
0 + 640000r = 800 rk ________2

512k + 640000r = 32000rk
0 + 640000 = 800rk
512k = 312000rk
r = 0.016 ~ 0.02
substitute r into 2
0k + 640000(0.02) = 32000(0.02)k
12800 = 16k
k = 800















RESULT


17
Question 1 :
The relative growth rate is growth rate divided by population
size or .
1
dt
dP
P
-
Question 3 :
a) k P
o
<
The growth rate is positive at the initial state and
P (population) is increasing and approaching to that the value of . k
k P
o
>
The growth rate is negative at the initial state and
P (population) is decreasing and approaching to that value of . k
b) For constant growth, 0 =
dt
dP

0 = P (but 0 > P ) or k P =
For increasing growth, 0 >
dt
dP

0 > P

or k P >
For decreasing growth 0 =
dt
dP

0 < P or k P >
Question 4 :
For constant growth,
k P
2
1
= Therefore, the maximum value of
dt
dP
= rk
4
1
=



CONCLUSION


18
Question 5 :
rt
rt
Ae
kAe
P
+
=
1
,
A e
c
=














Question 6 :
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

time
Graph P versus t
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
T P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
0 300 200 100 400 500
20 587 322 224 644 802
40 825 416 411 831 943
60 940 465 593 931 985
80 981 486 709 973 996
100 994 494 764 990 999
120 998 498 786 996 1000
140 999 499 795 999 1000
160 1000 500 798 999 1000
180 1000 500 799 1000 1000
200 1000 500 800 1000 1000
220 1000 500 800 1000 1000
240 1000 500 800 1000 1000
260 1000 500 800 1000 1000


19















r = 0.02 k = 800


0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
0 200 400 600 800 1000

P

t
Pt
Graph P against t
P Pt
40 1.06
77 1.71
125 2.54
196 3.14
240 3.62
316 3.93
371 3.88
534 3.29
603 2.62
658 2.05
701 1.57
712 0.771
776 0.306
791 0.143
794 0.143
796 0.0571
798 0.0159
799 0.0286
800 0


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