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__________lldPE_________ ( ) 1 , ( 2007-2011 .)
\ 1 2 Consumption of shrink film primarily for the packaging ,including flexible packaging industry especially in China and India -production and consumption ; LldPE application in certain areas of injection moulding was especially preferred in North America/USA and Canada/ as well as in West Europe.In China the share of injection moulding application sof lldPE approached cca. 7%,while that in India cca.8% Global lldPE consumption for rotomoulding showed a dynamic development netween 2007 and2011,when the main driving factor was the West European and North European applications of lldPE for rotomoulding Wire and cable applications were a minor driving segment for the total global lldPE consumption between 2007 and 2011 LldPE consumption in other processing segments Total 3 , 4 The strong development of the Asian,especially Chinese and Indian packaging industry was a driving force for lldPE consumption in 20072011,accounting for more than 75% of the total global lldPE consumption in 2007-2011 ;lldPE was an absolutely preferred material in North America and certain parts of Europe,including West Europe In 2007-2011 the share of injection moulding application of lldPE approached cca10% ;when regional fluctuations were relatively high in this segment of lldPE processing technology In terms of absolute volumes China and India led the way for this application,when in China the relative share of rotomoulded lldPE was about 3%as opposed to India,where this segments lldPE consumption accounted for about 11% of the total Indian lldPE consumption Special grades of wire and gable grade lldPE polymers were applied in the wire and cable sector mainly in some regions of West Europe,USD,Japan and Korea in low specific quantities -this segment included mainly C6 type lldPE LldPE found its application in relatively wide range of end-uses,mainly as in the form of polyolefin blends 5 The Asian lldPE consumption growth of 5,3% is attributed mainly to the Chinese and Indian production and consumption growth ,first of all using C4based lldPE as standalone material but also in blends with other polyolefin types

75% weight/75% in China and 69% In India

10% weight

In Asia there is expected a certain stagnation of the lldPE application for injection moulding end-uses

5 % weight

Globally the share of rotomoulding grade lldPE in between 2007 and 2011 was about 5%

3%

In Asia the wire and cable sector consumed higher quantities but of lower grade lldPE in comparison with West Europe and North America. This segment includes lldPE for special applications

7% 100%

, 2007-2011 . . , 2012-2022 ., , 2012-2022 . 2012-2022 . ( ).

2 , ( 2007-2011 .)
\ 1 1 2 European Naphtha pricing 3 LldPE price movement,change /in % of value/ +16% , 4 Especially in Europe the increasing naphtha/ethylene prices resulted a cca.16%increase in lldPE pricing between 2007 and 2011;naphtha is still the most widely used raw material for lldPE production In Asia the naphtha price increase impact was less important,since the continent relied also on ethane derived lldPE supplies from the Middle East as well as coal deived ethylene /especially in China/as feedstock ,thus in Asia there was recorded a cca. 10% lldPE/especially C4 type/price drop% LldPE priceremained relatively flat in the investigated period in the regions of the CIS; which may be attributed to the cheaper local naphtha but also to the entrance of the Russian federation to the WTO in the scrutinized period of 2007 and 2011 The continent was exposed mainly to the increasing naphtha derived ethylene price increase,although to the lesser extent,than the North American continent ;lldPE prices rose by about 5% here The North American lldPE price development was particularly exposed to the naphtha price increase as well as to the loosely depleting ethane reserves in the Prentiss/Joffre Alberta Canada region ; plants are located on the vulnerable Gulf Coast running mainly on naphtha based ethylene as feedstock ;in Canada as mentioned large capacities of lldPE are running on ever hardly available ethane p 5 Naphtha shortage in Europe impacted not only the production of ethylene and its derivatives but also the output propylene and butadiene downstream based products In the second half of the period of 20072011 there were said some restrictions imposed on especially the Saudi ethane sources,so the future availability of this raw material may be in jeopardy,similarly as in Canada/Alberta province. As for the CIS region,generally in petrochemicals egment of the industry there were not experienced naphtha raw material shortages for lldPE production In Central and South America naphtha retained its key importance as the main lldPE production feedstock

Asian ethane pricing

LldPE price movement,change/in % of value / -10%

CIS region naphtha pricing

LldPE price movement,/change in % of value/

South and Central America naphtha and ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in %of value / +5%

North America naphtha pricing

LldPE price movement,change in % of value /+15%

The North American naphtha pricing was and the slowly depleting ethane sources of Alberta were in particular harmful to the profitability of lldPE production in this continent between 2007 and 2011

, 2007-2011 . . , 2012-2022 ., , 2012-2022 .

2012-2022 . ( ).

3 ( 2012-2022 . ) base scenario


\ 1 2 Consumption of lldPE C4 based shrink films primarily for flexible packaging , especially in China -production and consumption ;in global terms there is estimated cca. 70%of lldPE consumed will be C4 type material,about 20% C6 type and the remaining 10% will be provided by C8 octene type lldPE with metallocene types production growing exceptionally strongly in some parts of the world 3 4 The strong development of the Asian,especially Chinese and Indian flexible packaging industry will be a driving force for lldPE consumption in 2012-2022,accounting for more than 51% of the total global lldPE consumption in 2012-2022 ;in India the prevailing lldPE type will remain the C4 based polymer similarly as in China,although in some packaging applications the C6 or superhexene type lldPE polymer will show a strong growth In 2012-2022 the production of injection moulded lldPE parts accounts for about 10% of the total global lldPE consumption,especially Asia, in particular India , China,Korea,Thailand consumption growth will the driving force of lldPE consumption in this segment , %, 100% - 5 80% The Asian lldPE consumption growth of 4%-5%% is attributed mainly to the Chinese lldPE production and consumption growth ,the country will become more self sustainable in lldPE consumption too,but huge quantities of lldPE imports espacilly from the Middle East and potentially from North America remain an important factor, 10% In terms of volume production and consumption growth will also be attributed to the Asian lldPE consumption growth in this segment in 20122022,especially in India,Thialand,Indonesia and China As seen,the lldPE use for extrusion as well as special blown film applications will be the major driving segment of the global lldPE consumption in 2012 and 2022 % 6 7

80% weight

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Consumption of lldPE by injection moulding processing technology

10% weight

There is anticipated an increasing quantity of lldPE consumption in special injection moulding applications in compounds with elastomers and/or plastomers for high tech applications

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Global lldPE consumption for rotomoulding will show a dynamic development between 2012 and 2022,when the main driving factor will be the Asian and South American continent

5 % weight

Wire and cable applications will remain a minor driving segment for the total glopal lldPE consumption between 2012 and 2022

5%

In terms of absolute volumes China and India will led the way for this application,when in China the relative share of rotomoulded lldPE will be about 4% as opposed to India,where this segments lldPE consumption will account for about 7% of the total Indian lldPE consumption Special grades of wire and gable grade lldPE polymers are applied in the wire and cable sector mainly in some regions of West Europe,USD,Japan and Korea as well as in other countries of the Pacific Rims Asia part,this segment includes mainly C6 type lldPE

Globally the share of rotomoulding grade lldPE in between 2012 and 2022 will be about about 5%

High quality,special grades of lldPE for the rotomoulding sector are expected to be exported especially by the revamped North American capacities

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

In Asia the wire and cable sector will consume larger quantities but of lower grade lldPE in comparison with West Europe and North America.

The consumption of lldPE in the wire and cable industry will be driven by the use of metallocene type material based on proprietary technology

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Total

100%

, 2007-2011 . ( 1).

4a ( 2012-2022 . ) positive scenario


, %, 100% - 5 77% The Asian lldPE consumption growth of 6,2% is attributed mainly to the Chinese and Indian lldPE production and consumption growth ,the country will become more self sustainable in lldPE consumption too,but huge quantities of lldPE imports espacilly from the Middle East and from North America/mainly metallocene type lldPE/ will be an important factor, 11% In terms of volume production and consumption growth will also be attributed to the Asian lldPE consumption growth in this segment in 20122022,especially in India,Thailand,Indonesia and China % 6

\ 1

2 Consumption of lldPE C4 based shrink films primarily for flexible packaging , especially in China -production and consumption ;in global terms there is estimated cca. 60%of lldPE consumed will be C4 type material,about 25% C6 type and the remaining 15% will be provided by C8 octene type lldPE with metallocene types production growing exceptionally strongly in some parts of the world

4 The strong development of the Asian,especially Chinese and Indian flexible packaging industry will be a driving force for lldPE consumption in 2012-2022,accounting for more than 58% of the total global lldPE consumption in 2012-2022 ;in India the prevailing lldPE type will remain the C4 based polymer similarly as in China,although in some packaging applications the C6 or superhexene type lldPE polymer will show a strong growth In 2012-2022 the production of injection moulded lldPE parts accounts for about 11% of the total global lldPE consumption,especially Asia, in particular India , China,Korea,Thailand consumption growth will the driving force of lldPE consumption in this segment

7
SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

77% weight

As seen,the lldPE use for extrusion as well as special blown film applications will be the major driving segment of the global lldPE consumption in 2012 and 2022 ,when in this positive scenario the share of metallocene type lldPE in the total global consumption of lldPE will be about 22%

Consumption of lldPE by injection moulding processing technology

11% weight

There is anticipated an increasing quantity of lldPE consumption in special injection moulding applications in compounds with elastomers and/or plastomers for high tech applications ,including metallocene blends

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Global lldPE consumption for rotomoulding will show a dynamic development between 2012 and 2022,when the main driving factor will be the Asian and South American continent

5 % weight

Wire and cable applications will remain a minor driving segment for the total glopal lldPE consumption between 2012 and 2022

5%

5 5

Other applications Total

2% 100%

In terms of absolute volumes China and India will lead the way for this application,when in China the relative share of rotomoulded lldPE will be about 3% as opposed to India,where this segments lldPE consumption will account for about 6% of the total Indian lldPE consumption Special grades of wire and gable grade lldPE polymers will applied in the wire and cable sector mainly in some regions of West Europe,USD,Japan and Korea as well as in other countries of the Pacific Rims Asia part,this segment includes mainly C6 type lldPE This segment will shrunk to about 2% in global terms

Globally the share of rotomoulding grade lldPE in between 2012 and 2022 will be about about 5%

High quality,including special grades of lldPE for the flexible packaging and some sectors of rotomoulding processing are expected to be exported especially by the revamped North American capacities

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

In Asia the wire and cable sector will consume larger quantities of lower grade as well as increasing quantities of high-end type lldPE

The consumption of lldPE in the wire and cable industry will be driven by the use of metallocene type material based on proprietary technology

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

5b ( 20122022 . ) negative scenario


\ 1 2 3 4 The slower development of the Asian,especially Chinese and Indian flexible packaging industry will be the main factors of Asias lldPE consumption slowdown to 3,7% in 20122022,accounting for about 50% of the total global lldPE consumption in 2012-2022 ;in India the prevailing lldPE type will remain the C4 based polymer similarly as in China,wher the predicted growth rate of C6 type lldPE consumption will not materialize. In 2012-2022 the production of injection moulded lldPE parts accounts for about 11% of the total global lldPE consumption,especially Asia, , %, 100% - 5 77% The Asian lldPE consumption slowdown of 3,7% is attributed mainly to the Chinese and Indian lldPE production and consumption slowdown despite these negative numbers, China as well as India will become more and more self sustainable in lldPE production,although in terms of volumes still large quantities of lldPE will be imported from the Middle East and North America 11% In terms of volume production and consumption As seen,the lldPE use for extrusion as well as special blown film applications will be the major driving segment of the global lldPE consumption in 2012 and 2022 ,when in this negative scenario the share of metallocene type lldPE in the total global consumption of lldPE will be about 17% % 6 7

Consumption of lldPE C4 based shrink films primarily for flexible packaging , especially in China -production and consumption ;in global terms there is estimated cca. 75%of lldPE consumed will be C4 type material,about 15% C6 type and the remaining 10% will be provided by C8 octene type lldPE with metallocene types production growing less than anticipated ;

77% weight

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Consumption of lldPE by injection moulding processing technology

11% weight

There is anticipated an increasing quantity of lldPE consumption in special injection moulding applications in

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

10

in particular India , China,Korea,Thailand consumption growth will the driving force of lldPE consumption in this segment Global lldPE consumption for rotomoulding will show a slowing down development between 2012 and 2022,especially because of the accumulated macroeconomic problems of the US and Europe pulling along to a certain extent Asia,too In terms of absolute volumes China and India will lead the way for this application,when in China the relative share of rotomoulded lldPE will be about 4% as opposed to India,where this segments lldPE consumption will account for about 5% of the total Indian lldPE consumption Special grades of wire and gable grade lldPE polymers will applied in the wire and cable sector mainly in some regions of West Europe,USD,Japan and Korea as well as in other countries of the Pacific Rims Asia part,this segment includes mainly C6 type lldPE This segment will shrunk to about 2% in global terms

drop will also be attributed to the Asian lldPE consumption growth of just 3,7%

5 % weight

Globally the share of rotomoulding grade lldPE in between 2012 and 2022 will be about about 5%

compounds with elastomers and/or plastomers for high tech applications ,including metallocene blends High quality,including special grades of lldPE for the flexible packaging and some sectors of rotomoulding processing are expected to be exported especially by the established Middle East ;largely speaking East of Suez,including Iran regional capacities The consumption of lldPE in the wire and cable industry will be driven by the use of metallocene type material based on proprietary technology

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Wire and cable applications will remain a minor driving segment for the total glopal lldPE consumption between 2012 and 2022

5%

In Asia the wire and cable sector will consume larger quantities of lower grade as well as increasing quantities of high-end type lldPE

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

Other applications Total

2% 100%

SRI Consulting,Menl o Park California

11

6 ( 2012-2022 . )-base scenario


\ 1 1 2 European Naphtha pricing 3 LldPE price movement,change /in % of value/ -13% 4 The-13% lldPE price drop Europe anticipating a stagnating lldPE consumption,while the production will be based partly on captive naphtha,imported naphtha and , %, 100% - 5 70% Dependence on naphtha derived ethylene price ,in other words lldPE price will be dependent as much as 70% on naphtha price,the rerst of 30% is provided by imported ethane price % 6 As mentioned, there is anticipated that lldPE price to a certain extent decouples from the naphtha price due to prognosticated ethane imports ,in other words there is anticipated Europe faces further raw material difficulties to a 7
SRI Consulting,Menlo Park Calif SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California ornia

12

Asian plus Middle East ethane pricing plus Middle East imported ethane based lldPE pricing and

lldPE price movement,change/in % of value / -8%

CIS region naphtha pricing

lldPE price movement,/change in % of value/ -1%

South and Central America naphtha and ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in %of value / -6%

foremost on imported ethane/North America/ /or ethylene For the Asian continentlldPE prices are projected to drop by -8%-10% because of some decoupling from naphtha prices and moving toward ethane /including major new Thailand ethane based ethylene capacities/ ,coal,methanol and unconventional renewable as lldPE production production feedstock,especially in China For the CIS region there is projected a -1% lldPE price drop attributed to the full upstream raw material integration of the local lldPE producer The Central and South American lldPE price will drop by 6% mainly because of raw material diversification

certain extent alleviated by North American ethane imports

50% price dependence on naphtha prices,the rest of 40% is provided by dependences on ethane as well as mainly cola and methanol prices

It is expected in the total Asian lldPE production /including Middle East/ about 40% of lldPE total produced would come from ethane,cca 50% from naphtha and 10% from unconventional raw material

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

Approximately 70%

For this period there is anticipated that 70% of lldPE produced would be based on naphtha derived ethylene ,the rest of 30%on ethane In Central and South America about 70 % of total lldPE produced will come from naphtha,25% from ethane and the rest 5% from renewable raw

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

70%

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

13

North America naphtha pricing, North America ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in % of value /-30%

efforts/especially ethane and sugar cane derived ethanol/ The North American lldPE price will be a mix of prices based partly on naphtha but foremost and primarily on ethane derived ethylene,this this price will be composed of cca. 80% ethane and 20% naphtha prices;therefore there is expected a lldPE price drop by probably more than 5%,projected in this base scenario

materials

80% deepndance on ethane pricing

In North America about 80% of lldPE produced would come from the so intensely and vehemently advertised new shale gas ethane if everything goes well.. ???

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

14

7a ( 2012-2022 . ) positive scenario


\ 1 2 3 4 The-13% lldPE price drop Europe anticipating a stagnating lldPE consumption,while the production will be based partly on captive naphtha,imported naphtha and foremost on imported ethane/North America/ /or ethylene For the Asian continentlldPE prices are projected to drop by -8%-10% because of some decoupling from naphtha prices and moving toward ethane /including major new Thailand ethane based ethylene capacities/ , %, 100% - 5 % 6 As mentioned, there is anticipated that lldPE price to a certain extent decouples from the naphtha price due to prognosticated ethane imports ,in other words there is anticipated Europe faces further raw material difficulties to a certain extent alleviated by North American ethane imports It is expected in the total Asian lldPE production /including Middle East/ about 40% of lldPE total produced would come from ethane,cca 50% from naphtha and 10% from unconventional raw material 7

European Naphtha pricing

lldPE price movement,change /in % of value/ -13%

70% Dependence on naphtha derived ethylene price ,in other words lldPE price will be dependent as much as 70% on naphtrha price,the rerst of 30% is provided by imported ethane price

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

Asian plus Middle East ethane pricing plus Middle East imported ethane based lldPE pricing and

lldPE price movement,change/in % of value / -8%

50% price dependence on naphtha prices,the rest of 40% is provided by dependences on ethane as well as mainly cola and methanol prices

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

15

CIS region naphtha pricing

lldPE price movement,/change in % of value/ -1%

South and Central America naphtha and ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in %of value / -6%

North America naphtha pricing, North America ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in % of value /-4%5%

,coal,methanol and unconventional renewable as lldPE production production feedstock,especially in China For the CIS region there is projected a -1% lldPE price drop attributed to the full upstream raw material integration of the local lldPE producer The Central and South American lldPE price will drop by 6% mainly because of raw material diversification efforts/especially ethane and sugar cane derived ethanol/ The North American lldPE price will be a mix of prices based partly on naphtha but foremost and primarily on ethane derived ethylene,this this price will be composed of cca. 80% ethane and 20% naphtha prices;therefore there is expected a lldPE price drop by

Approximately 70%

For this period there is anticipated that 70% of lldPE produced would be based on naphtha derived ethylene ,the rest of 30%on ethane

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

70%

In Central and South America about 70 % of total lldPE produced will come from naphtha,25% from ethane and the rest 5% from renewable raw materials In North America about 80% of lldPE produced would come from the so intensely and vehemently advertised new shale gas ethane if everything goes well.. ???

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

80% dependance on ethane pricing

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

16

probably more than 5%,projected in this base scenario

8b ( 2012-2022 . ) negative scenario


\ 1 1 2 European Naphtha pricing 3 lldPE price movement,change /in % of value/ 4 There will be a -11% lldPE price drop in Europe , %, 100% - 5 85 % 6 In Europe,according to this scenario there is anticipated about 5% of 7
SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

17

-11%,but in absolute terms and values the price of lldPE will be higher by about cca. 4%-5% in comparison with the base scenario

anticipating a dereasing lldPE production based on imported ethane and/or ethylene/see Ineos ethane investments at Bamble and in particular Antwerpen to import ethane and ethylene to Europe from the US,Middle East/ ,thus in comparison with the base scenario there will be more lldPE produced based on naphtha derived ethylene For the Asian continent lldPE prices are projected to drop by 8% first of all because the increased amounts of lldPE produced from ethylene based ethane,by unconventional processes of CTM ans well as CTO in particular in China For the CIS region there is projected a 1% price rise attributed to the full upstream raw

lldPE might be produced from imported ethane/ethylene based raw material ,the rest from naphtha so a sligh easing on price pressure but still not enough/this is why this is a negative scenario for Europe

Asian ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change/in % of value -8%/

80

CIS region naphtha pricing

LldPE price movement,/change in % of value/ 1%

90

It is expected in the total Asian lldPE production /including Middle East/ about 40% of lldPE total produced would come from ethane,cca 50% from naphtha and 10% from unconventional raw material,thus naphtha pressure on lldPE prices will not be so much dominant ,but stillremains the primary raw material for lldPE production For this period there is anticipated that 90% of lldPE produced would be based on naphtha derived ethylene

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

18

South and Central America naphtha and ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in %of value / -1%

North America naphtha pricing, North America ethane pricing

lldPE price movement,change in % of value /-2%

material integration of the local MEG producer The Central and South American lldPE price will drop by 1% mainly because of the dominant character of naphtha as principal feedstock The North American lldPE price will be a mix of prices based on naphtha and ethane derived ethylene,which will be composed of cca. 35% ethane derived prices;therefore there is expected a medium drop of -2% drop/some ethane projected lldPE plants will not be built at all or suffer delay,or ethane will be primarily exported

90

In Central and South America about 90 % of total lldPE produced will come from naphtha,10% from ethane and renewable raw materials

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

55% dependence on naphtha pricing

In North America about 45% of lldPE produced would come from the so intensely advertised new shale gas ethane and the rest from naphtha ;

SRI Consulting,Menlo Park California

19

, 2007-2011 . ( 2).

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bn=(bn-1)*Kbn , bn (2012 ) ; (bn-1) , ; Kbn

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on=(bn-1)*Kbn*Won ,

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on (2012 ) ; (bn-1) , Kbn

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