Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
13 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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13 May 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
379.70
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
574
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
288.90
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
353
0.66
COBHAM
273.70
190.10
273.70
Neutral
Buy
304
0.82
MEGGITT
515.50
364.30
515.50
Sell
Sell
440
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1168.00
780.75
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1138
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1303.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1101
0.71
1718.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Sell
1622
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
290.80
173.60
290.80
Neutral
Neutral
277
2.02
INCHCAPE
525.50
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
520
1.48
LOOKERS
101.00
56.50
102.00
Neutral
Neutral
110
1.23
23.25
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
314.40
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-805
1.94
744.80
503.20
744.80
Neutral
Buy
941
1.17
58.94
25.29
58.94
Sell
Sell
1.89
299.50
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-162
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1583.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3214
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
557.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
597
0.55
DIAGEO
2020.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1799
0.55
SABMILLER
3559.00
2348.50
3655.50
Neutral
Buy
4047
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
300.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
668
1.23
CARCLO
385.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
412
0.73
2485.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2036
1.04
254.30
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
348
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2571.00
2080.27
2593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12242
1.45
VICTREX
1593.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1433
1.14
SYNTHOMER
209.20
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
217
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
216.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
82.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
214.90
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
930
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
323.30
114.00
323.30
Neutral
Buy
440
1.58
BELLWAY
1308.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1804
1.15
2110.00
1180.00
2140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3225
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
186.00
115.50
186.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
335
0.83
761.50
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
537
1.20
CARILLION
277.00
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
743
1.12
CLARKE (T)
56.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
0.82
275.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
540
0.57
1375.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
815
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
939.00
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1590
1.01
KELLER
886.50
348.25
890.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2008
1.26
1196.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3178
0.97
70.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
207
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
126.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
540.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3195
0.87
16.25
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1102.00
496.69
1109.00
Neutral
Buy
1368
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
212.00
107.30
215.90
Neutral
Buy
273
1.09
SIG
167.00
82.30
170.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.79
2.00
2.00
15.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
49
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
94.50
40.28
96.55
Neutral
Buy
122
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1440.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2446
2.01
WOLSELEY
3320.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5278
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1291.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
805
0.75
677.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
884
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
119.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
258
1.29
INVENSYS
399.70
198.90
399.70
Neutral
Sell
360
1.41
LAIRD
208.30
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
78
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1529.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1232
1.00
RENISHAW
1720.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2475
1.26
SPECTRIS
2163.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Neutral
2316
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.16
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
175.50
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
426
1.58
XAAR
560.00
185.00
560.00
Sell
Sell
244
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
86.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
98
1.28
BODYCOTE
536.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
529
1.60
CASTINGS
345.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
729
0.99
VESUVIUS
371.30
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
518
2.20
FENNER
375.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
575
1.42
HALMA
521.50
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
412
0.75
440.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
342
1.37
1322.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1434
1.41
287.70
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
563
1.82
2962.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2300
1.00
262.70
177.00
263.30
Neutral
Sell
220
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.00
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Sell
30
SPIRAX-SARCO
2775.00
1900.00
2775.00
Sell
Sell
2387
0.84
VITEC GROUP
614.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
617
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2348.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2124
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
402.00
398.50
523.50
Buy
Strong Buy
682
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
288.80
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
186
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
382.20
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
209
0.57
TESCO
375.55
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
266
0.68
82.00
18.88
82.25
Neutral
Sell
61
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1988.00
1167.00
1999.00
Neutral
Neutral
2126
0.62
CRANSWICK
1057.00
732.50
1080.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2100
0.43
DAIRY CREST
467.50
307.00
468.30
Neutral
Neutral
510
0.94
DEVRO
331.20
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
519
0.32
73.75
54.50
134.25
Neutral
Sell
-182
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
862.50
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1565
0.71
2774.00
2007.00
2845.00
Neutral
Neutral
2805
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
451.00
224.40
451.00
Neutral
Sell
383
0.54
1407.00
1000.00
1467.00
Neutral
Sell
1035
1.27
665.00
585.00
728.50
Sell
Sell
296
0.95
36.95
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Buy
41
1.51
138.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.13
28.00
19.50
42.50
Sell
Strong Buy
107
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
395.20
189.00
395.20
Neutral
Buy
530
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
830.00
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1597
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
52.50
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91
1.25
KINGFISHER
329.50
254.10
329.70
Neutral
Buy
412
0.94
420.20
312.20
421.60
Neutral
Buy
546
0.65
57.00
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Neutral
63
1.04
324.75
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
361
0.47
NEXT
4567.00
2899.00
4601.00
Neutral
Sell
3945
0.67
TED BAKER
1385.00
830.00
1397.00
Sell
Sell
693
0.55
68.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
790.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
571
0.39
OPTOS
158.00
145.75
257.75
Neutral
Neutral
167
1.18
766.00
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
688
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
740.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
721
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
329.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
299
0.92
84.25
55.25
95.00
Neutral
Buy
106
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1072.00
469.00
1072.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
558
Beta
0.74
544.00
200.30
544.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1299
1.18
64.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
48
0.90
306.00
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
524
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
138.80
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
694
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
203.25
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-514
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1262.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1237
0.53
AMLIN
426.30
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
90
0.46
BEAZLEY
231.20
132.50
231.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1292
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
538.00
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2006
0.30
HISCOX
565.50
385.08
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2576
0.48
883.50
659.00
883.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1719
0.31
112.50
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
931
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
488.00
345.00
488.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2927
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2397.00
1967.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4070
1.01
98.00
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Buy
109
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
346.90
158.00
346.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
795
1.01
800.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
687
0.39
GREENE KING
744.50
474.30
744.50
Neutral
Sell
664
0.93
LADBROKES
205.10
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
258
0.93
1946.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1516
1.18
CARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
559.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
659
1.40
355.60
217.40
355.60
Neutral
Sell
322
1.12
139.60
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.25
10.00
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
52
1.27
166.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
516
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
481.90
272.70
488.10
Neutral
Sell
330
WETHERSPOON (JD)
605.00
371.30
607.50
Neutral
Buy
757
0.69
WHITBREAD
2700.00
1786.00
2700.00
Neutral
Sell
2035
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
426.50
245.70
430.70
Neutral
Sell
262
0.87
MARSTON'S
149.20
94.40
149.20
Neutral
Sell
20
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
323.40
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
712
1.25
CHESNARA
246.25
155.25
250.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
397
0.70
181.90
106.00
181.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
360
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
215.80
138.70
220.40
Neutral
Neutral
206
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1170.00
660.00
1177.00
Neutral
Sell
1026
1.71
585.50
303.40
585.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1508
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
115.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-612
0.37
806.50
656.00
899.50
Buy
Strong Buy
1810
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
46.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
1.03
744.50
363.50
744.50
Sell
Strong Buy
4242
1.14
1.00
1007.00
672.50
1007.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7937
INFORMA
507.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-83
1.53
ITE GROUP
291.20
180.00
291.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
1.45
ITV
130.60
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1324
1.54
19.00
4.88
19.00
Sell
Buy
808
1.27
1206.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
328
0.63
80.00
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2722
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
902
0.16
34.76
26.85
34.76
Neutral
Sell
-610
0.50
STV GROUP
132.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
274
0.79
ST.IVES
153.00
67.50
153.00
Neutral
Sell
235
1.50
91.00
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-266
1.59
729.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1778
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
154.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1404
WPP
1124.00
743.00
1124.00
Neutral
Sell
-529
1.35
HIBU
0.40
0.26
3.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
840
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1591.00
1553.00
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1203
1.74
225.75
215.00
290.30
Neutral
Neutral
228
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
913.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
845
1.41
1917.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2857
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
343.90
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
984
#NA
LONMIN
278.80
240.84
478.98
Neutral
Buy
355
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5010.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2967
0.34
RIO TINTO
3037.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2360
1.50
3.38
14.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2102
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1299.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1185.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1240
0.80
BP
465.70
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1561
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
280.60
248.20
310.20
Neutral
Sell
-17
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
8.05
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.82
831.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
447
1.31
1.36
71.00
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
302
392.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
286
1.43
2319.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9426
0.84
387.90
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
248
0.53
1012.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
904
1.04
810.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
799
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
115.50
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
391.70
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
322
0.69
4659.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4701
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.68
Buy
Sell
1.01
3342.50
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6527
0.47
BTG
351.90
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
168
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
698.50
449.25
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
726
0.25
1670.00
1317.50
1687.50
Neutral
Sell
1574
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.10
1.55
4.08
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2019.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1371
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
43.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-134
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
423.00
274.50
423.00
Neutral
Sell
-612
1.18
BRITISH LAND
625.50
475.40
625.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1810
1.06
Target
Beta
35.50
22.75
35.50
Sell
Strong Buy
163
0.85
959.50
595.00
959.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4242
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2425.00
1708.00
2425.00
Sell
Strong Buy
7937
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
161.75
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-83
0.99
GRAINGER
149.50
83.10
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
572.00
367.80
572.00
Strong Sell
Strong Buy
1324
1.10
HAMMERSON
547.50
409.20
547.50
Neutral
Buy
808
1.19
HELICAL BAR
266.00
164.00
266.00
Neutral
Buy
328
0.77
920.00
704.00
920.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2722
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
343.80
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
902
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
145.00
127.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-610
0.73
420.00
325.00
420.00
Sell
Sell
274
0.42
333.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
235
0.35
70.00
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-266
1.19
SAVILLS
590.00
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1778
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
639.50
492.00
639.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1404
1.05
SEGRO
283.20
209.40
283.20
Neutral
Sell
-529
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
296.90
145.50
296.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
840
1.59
208.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-17
1.01
UNITE GROUP
364.00
180.25
364.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1197
1.03
388.60
213.25
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1362
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
129.00
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
123
0.73
2253.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1322
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
448.00
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1355
1.00
KOFAX
320.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
323
1.11
26.75
18.25
26.75
Sell
Sell
24
0.85
685.00
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
993
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
142.00
131.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
310
0.74
72.50
70.25
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-92
0.52
1889.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2087
0.76
350.60
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
419
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
464.80
237.30
468.00
Neutral
Sell
143
BREWIN DOLPHIN
204.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
118
0.73
10100.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
8896
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
403.50
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
199
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
180.00
135.87
190.00
Neutral
Sell
128
0.69
1054.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
208
0.86
97.45
65.90
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
101
0.89
3.25
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
26
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
174.30
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
62
1.44
ICAP
301.00
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
228
1.07
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
433.10
227.30
433.10
Neutral
Sell
150
INVESTEC
491.00
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
113
1.56
1349.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5935
1.15
125.70
63.25
125.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1499.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1096
0.75
SCHRODERS
2441.00
1166.00
2441.00
Neutral
Sell
1173
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1916.00
966.00
1916.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3788
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
210.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
292
0.92
AGGREKO
1765.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1308
1.05
AMEC
1068.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1137
1.04
591.50
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
321
1.63
1074.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
666
0.48
554.00
324.00
557.00
Neutral
Buy
805
0.76
1288.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
988
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
425.00
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
443
0.39
CAPITA
921.50
602.00
921.50
Neutral
Sell
527
0.51
55.88
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
67
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
851.50
616.00
856.50
Neutral
Sell
607
BERENDSEN
752.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
985
1.05
DE LA RUE
946.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
597
#NA
DIGNITY
1446.00
803.50
1446.00
Neutral
Sell
825
0.22
DIPLOMA
599.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
490
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
258.60
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
323
1.04
FILTRONA
748.00
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
349
1.13
G4S
247.70
240.00
313.50
Buy
Buy
293
0.58
95.05
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
122
1.10
HOMESERVE
214.70
137.50
249.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
494
0.94
INTERSERVE
492.30
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
687
1.28
3359.00
2456.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1458
0.78
43.50
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
95
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
31.00
21.25
36.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
MENZIES (JOHN)
790.50
542.00
790.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1298
1.43
384.10
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
321
1.42
MITIE GROUP
272.10
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
343
0.55
93.50
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.33
PAYPOINT
848.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
696
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
224.50
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
291
1.33
REGUS
170.00
82.65
170.20
Neutral
Sell
107
1.46
92.05
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
55
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
526.00
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
534
0.90
RICARDO
385.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
473
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
215.00
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
309
1.24
RPC GROUP
398.30
351.00
477.00
Neutral
Buy
536
0.78
RPS GROUP
233.90
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
248
1.51
SERCO GROUP
624.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
581
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
84.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
169
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
48.00
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Neutral
52
1.26
152.00
73.50
153.00
Neutral
Sell
51
0.63
52.00
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
61
0.93
340.00
235.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
185
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
309.50
200.70
309.50
Sell
Buy
354
42.80
27.28
43.08
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.70
714.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
620
0.53
Beta
0.91
86.25
67.00
86.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
135
1.24
1237.00
695.00
1239.00
Sell
Sell
765
0.09
194.35
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
175
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
273.00
178.00
273.00
Sell
Sell
Target
180
Beta
1.30
415.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
463
0.98
CLARKSON
1650.00
1150.00
1673.00
Sell
Sell
1496
0.80
EASYJET
1153.00
481.20
1153.00
Neutral
Sell
682
0.77
FIRST GROUP
216.60
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
573
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
960.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
403
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1527.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1890
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
215.00
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
256
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
337.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
621
STAGECOACH GROUP
311.90
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
368
0.89
54.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
377.50
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
511
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
823.00
641.00
825.50
Neutral
Neutral
886
0.50
PENNON GROUP
666.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
824
0.59
SSE
1577.00
1294.00
1577.00
Neutral
Buy
1833
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1827.00
1513.00
1828.00
Neutral
Sell
1604
0.35
738.50
617.50
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
713
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
13 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
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person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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