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American Association for Public Opinion Research

Public Opinion and the Classical Tradition Author(s): Paul F. Lazarsfeld Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 1, Anniversary Issue Devoted to Twenty Years of Public Opinion Research (Spring, 1957), pp. 39-53 Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2746788 . Accessed: 07/06/2011 17:18
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Public Opinion and the Classical radition*


BY PAUL F. LAZARSFELD

opinion.

The speculative approach to publicopinion characteristic of thelastcentury and the current empirical approachmay be seen as supplementary ratherthan antithetical. Modernresearch techniques can confirm and develop notionsadvancedby classical writers, whileauthors such as Dicey andBrycecan help direct present-day researchers to significant problems and suggest new ways of analyzingempirical data. Merging of thetwoapproaches will hasten thedevelopment of a moreadequatetheory of public

versity.

As Past President of the American Association forPublic OpinionResearch, and first recipient of the JulianL. WoodwardMemorialAward,the authorhas received the highestrecognition the opinionresearch profession can give. Furthermore, the breadth of h-is interests have been such thatthereare few areas. of any social science wherestudents do not findhis publications required reading. Duringmostof thepast tenyears he has served as Chairman of theDepartment of Sociology of ColumbiaUni-

QUITE possiblythe emergence of empirical social sciencewill one day be considered an outstanding feature of the twentieth century. But its birth has not been without travail. Hardesthave been its struggles withwhat we shall call the classicaltradition. Afterall, fortwo thousandyearsor morepeople have thought and written abouthumanand social affairs. Has theempirical trendbeen an enriching innovation?Has it had a pernicious The effect? matter has certainly been muchdiscussed in recent years. The debateover the studyof public opinionprobably providesthe best case in point.Since aboutthebeginning of the eighteenth a steadily century increasing amounthas been written on thissubjectby politicalscientists, by historians and, recently, by sociologists. Toward the beginning of the twentiethcentury, however,this classicaltradition was confronted by the empiricists, who ralliedaroundthenotionof attitudes. The empirical tradition in opinionand attitude research began modestly withsimplelaboratory on problem enoughin Germany experiments solving, in whichthenotionof "mentalsets"was carvedout. It gainedstrength from the work of the Chicago schoolof sociologists, whichbrought the studyof and values intoplay. Immediately attitudes the psychometricians thereafter, under the leadershipof Thurstoneintroduced the portentous problemof And finally measurement. came the publicopinionresearch people who, on
* Thismay be identified as publication of theBureau No. A-230 ofApplied Social Research, Columbia University.

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exgreatly rangebut,on the other, the conceptual theone hand,narrowed applications.1 thefieldof practical tended About ten yearsago the aspiringnew scienceand the classicaltradition organizaOur professional each otherlike petulantantagonists. confronted addresses Three presidential took cognizanceof the matter. tionscertainly since 1950have been devotedto the at AAPOR annual meetings delivered theory political to history, of publicopinionresearch of therelation discussion of the classicaltradition Nor did exponents respectively. and social theory, BluHerbert attacks, theirclaims:LindsayRogersmade violent let us forget for showedtheircontempt and the historians his complaints, merarticulated speakingabout it onlyoccasionally by theirneglect, publicopinionresearch by has been ably summarized situation and upon request.This contentious paper.2Were and informative thoughtful BernardBerelsonin an unusually could be added to Berelanything we to reviewwherewe standnow,hardly herehis essay and if we want to discusshow to proceedfrom son's remarks, is stillthemostsuggestive. as the seventh stateof public opinionresearch Berelsonsees the present thatsomewhichbegan witha generalfeeling process phase of an unfolding writers prominent As a result, thingcalled public opinion was important. aboutit duringa secondphaseof development. broad speculations developed wereavailable: they data weredrawnon wherever In a third phase empirical of these The shortcomings documents. other or articles, speeches, magazine field. At this the of the methodology in interest intense data led, fourthly, to agenciesas phase set in, duringwhich specializedcommercial point a fifth was made Next,contact tookthelead in research. institutes well as university This makes and psychology. such as anthropology neighbors withintellectual a phase in which phase,intowhichwe are justentering, possibletheseventh on public opinionare being developed:publicopinpropositions systematic socialscience. has becomean empirical ion research or any othernaturalsciIf we were dealing with a fieldlike chemistry, what that any new phase incorporated confident ence, we would be rather of naturalsciencemustactuwas of value in past work; onlythe historian is not as ally turnback to earlierstages.In the social sciencesthe situation is forevidence and therespect of formulations in theclarity simple.Progress to the broader by an insensitivity at least temporarily, oftenaccompanied, of an older tradition. characteristic visionsand the more generalconcerns for the and spokesmen clash betweenmodernempiricists The resulting This is almost and productive. always other is in fields, recurs many classics
essayon "Atti1 For an excellent see GordonAllport's position of the empirical history brief Mass.: Clark (Worcester, edited by Carl Murchison, tudes" in the Handbook of Psychology, Press,1935). University of editedby Leonard White, (Chicago: University 2In The Study of the Social Sciences, ChicagoPress,1956).

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AND THE CLASSICAL

TRADITION

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usuallyfurnishes development empirical First, reasons. distinct trueforthree tools that enable us to see the classicsfroma new vansharper conceptual be discerned can now often before perceived tagepoint:whatwas onlydimly to of all sortscan be brought new implications and, as a result, withclarity to our brings thisclassicalmaterial theveryact of inspecting Secondly, light. because either have been overlooked, ideas whichmightotherwise attention researchers empirical or because day, of the the work with of preoccupation are likelyto be guided too much by what is a manageabletopicat the moissue. Finally,the classicaltrament,ratherthan by what is an important is by no meansover.We first twophases, byBerelson's as exemplified dition, witha broad scope, problems about will keep on thinking hope thatscholars abouttheseprobdata or precisemodesof reasoning of whether irrespective and thelogic of emcan make progress, lemsare available.Theorizingitself to it. Thus, our conceptualtask is to bend can contribute piricalresearch Berelson's phasesintoa loop to see how the earlyphasesmeshwiththelater ones.
COMPLEXITIES OF THE CLASSICAL NOTION

centering begin by paying heed to the discussions We may profitably thatbothBlumer of publicopinion.It is no coincidence aroundthedefinition use theterm publicopinand Rogersmake thisbig point:when thepollsters ion, theydo not know and cannotsay what theymean. Now, in principle, or explicit, do whether implicit Definitions, thisis not a picayuneobjection. In another howon scholarly activities. respect, indeed have greatinfluence one. Neitherof the two authors proposesa ever,the objectionis a strange of quotationswhich Rogers And if one looks at the collection definition. one is impressed in The Pollsters, by thefact in one of his chapters provides writers of earlier As a matter a fact, offered definition. thatfewof theclassics and of the about character comments intangible with mysterious overflow publicopinion. agreedthatit to define?It is generally Why is publicopinionso difficult theexinstitutions, was theriseof themiddleclass,the spreadof democratic which of media communication of mass and thegrowth pansionof literacy, gave rise to concernwith what was looselycalled public opinion.By this to people who did not beof the classicalschoolreferred termmanyauthors was recruited the which government classesfrom personnel long to theruling and yetclaimeda voicein publicaffairs.
to which we shall come back 5In a book by Emden on the people and the constitution, of the term"The People" can be found.He shows an interesting appendixon thishistory later, the people were always those who hadn't yet the that at variousperiodsin English history reform. In Germany, to vote but were about to get it at the next turnof parliamentary right excluded purposes, were,forall practical priorto the FirstWorld War, the liberalintellectuals Toenniesdefined that the Germansociologist not surprising It is tI"refore fromgovernment.

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problem:What is becamepuzzling. One is a normative But two matters The the best relationbetweenthis "public opinion" and the government? exercise actually opinion public does How problem: is descriptive a second The term"publicopinion"came intouse in just thecasual way itsinfluence? it actually a concept, it now. While ostensibly in whichwe have introduced and problems, practical of observations, congeries onlya complicated signified startthis closely to follow while worth much It is very concerns. normative historiof a develop,ing how thecomplexity history: lingpiece of intellectual no appropriate because difficulty as a linguistic was experienced cal situation existedto cope withit. In modernparlanceone would say logicalcategories languagedealingwithfactual between thesubject was a confusion thatthere dealing with the way the observations and the meta-language observations, shouldbe analyzed.4 We shall take our main exampleof thisproblemfroman essayby the and the Statesman, Herman Oncken on "The Historian, Germanhistorian mainly is concerned Public Opinion." Accordingto Oncken,the statesman history when he writes therefore of his country; with the enduringinterests with truth;he is mainlyconcerned The historian he should be mistrusted. should not becometoo involvedin politicsor he runstheriskof a conflict forthe everof values. "Public opinion"-watch the personification-stands by eitherscholastic qualities of the human mind not encumbered shifting or nationalresponsibilities. Oncken goes on to discusspublicopinionas follows:
cannotbe understood by being clampedinto a formula; The vague and fluctuating a thousand thatit embodies of theconcept not whenit is a verycharacteristic certainly But when all is said and done,everyone knows,if put to it, of variation. possibilities thenit can onlyappearhedged means.If it mustbe setin words, whatpublicopinion utterances clauses:publicopinionis a complexof similar aroundby manyrestricting sponof society (1, 2); at times concerning publicaffairs or smaller segments of larger in a multitude of ways,in clubs, at times (3); expressed manipulated artfully taneous, feelings or perhaps onlyin unspoken aboveall in thepressand in journals, assemblies, or of a smallcirdeof theculman in thestreet of each one of us (4); of thecommon whichstatesmen musttakeintoaccount, or sometured(8); herea truepowerfactor, in again to be evaluateddifferently (5); something significance thingof no political up like a tidalwave againstthegovrising united, country (5 or 6); sometimes every tendendes (7); at sometimes conflicting divided,concealing and the experts, ernment sentiments of thepeople,at another time out thesimpleand natural one timebringing of wild instincts manifestations (6); alwaysleadingand beingthe rowdythoughtless
aboutpublic issues public opinionas the opinionof experts(Gelehrte),the men who thought of power. Cecil S. Emden, The People and the but did not have directaccess to the centers Press,1956). University 2nd edition(London: Oxford Constitution, 4 Interestingly for has dealt in detailwith a similardifficulty enough,at leastone historian Franceit was impossible to epoch.LucienFebvremakesthepointthatin 16thcentury an earlier because the language did not providethe necessary of religiousscepticism develop a system en XVIe Siecle,pp. 383-401. de l'Incroyance base forit. See his Le Probleme intellectual

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thehands yetforcing alwaysbeingled (5, 3); lookeddown upon by thesophisticated, (9); and power treacherous (10); capricious, likean epidemic ofmen (6, 5); contagious man himself)(6); and thenagain onlya word by whichthosein mad (resembling (5).5 powerare bewitched

in thispassageso thatwe after the sentences numbers [We have inserted about thisbewildering can refer to them easily.] Now, what is interesting easilyas soon as one matchesit is that it can be disentangled formulation It is a commonattitude distribution. whatone mightcall a complete against out how in finding merely place formostof us thatpollingdoes not consist We need to know the social and manypeople are foror againstsomething. and we take great care to of the respondents, characteristics demographic withthe proband concerned betweenpeople who are informed distinguish lem and thosewho are not.In otherwords,a good publicopinionpoll ends but withmanyof themfordifferent of attitudes up notwithone distribution givesa definition of thepopulation. Onckenundoubtedly In thissense, sectors (No. 1 and No. of utterances distribution of publicopinion.It is a statistical of thepopulation(No. 2), and thesesegby varioussegments 7), expressed (No. 8). competence bythedegreeof their ments can and shouldbe classified problems of empirical are a number But intermingled withthisdefinition thancross-sectional morecomplicated in investigations whichare encountered distribution at any given a given attitude What factors determine surveys. does it have on statemen and on the legislative time (No. 3) ? What effect and diffused processin general (No. 5) ? How are opinionscommunicated ? (No. 10) topicswhichare now of in thispassageforeshadow Two further elements great technicalconcernto us. How should one choose among the various (No. distribution an attitude sources and devices whichcan be usedtoascertain and in the printed at meetings mass onlyexpressions 4) ? Oncken mentions reand othermore systematic media. Today we would add questionnaires search procedures. And we would now translatethe phrase "capricious, distinguishof panel techniques, treacherous" (No. 9) into the terminology those attitudes from interviews show constant ing peoplewho upon repeated fluctuate. concerned whose attitudes Finally (No. 6), Oncken is obviously of how certainopinionsshouldbe evaluatedwiththe normative problem a matter to whichwe shallreturn subsequently. of matters of definition and factual which problems It is thisintertwining of the classicaltradition. We are probably facedhereby is so characteristic Now thatwe have the reality of publicopinion an irreversible development. keep on calling public opiniona well analyzed polls we will undoubtedly of attitudes. But certainly no one deniesthatwe stillknow very distribution littleabout how such completeattitude distributions come into being,and
and History 5,Essays on Politics (Berlin,1914), Vol. I, pp. 203-204,

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process.And under the what role theyactuallyplay in the governmental keep on we certainly generalheading of the "mass societyphenomenon" resolves about the roleit shouldplay.Thus the issue of definition worrying thatthejoy of of pollingare worried way. The critics in an interesting itself some of the will lead us to forget havingfound greaterconceptualclarity dealt (and withwhichtheclassics problems and empirical gravephilosophical are concerned).But mightworryas far as some pollsters well thesecritics histhathas happenedoftenin intellectual is something whatis overlooked out of variousaspectsof a the sorting has permitted tory:a new technique the way fora morerationalapproachto concernand has prepared diffused elements.6 itsdifferent
THE "PUBLIC OPINION SYSTEM 1 AS A BRIDGE

which to finda formulation effort been an interesting There has recently of turn the modern and will bridgethe gap betweenthe classicaltradition implies It system."7 theterm"publicopinion events. MacIverhas introduced by which of factsand problems thatthe multiplicity a clear understanding difonly by distinguishing were confusedcan be structured earlierwriters of publicopinion.One is "theopinionalignin theconcept ferent dimensions publicopinion whichmodern ofinformation to thetype corresponding ment," of communication." polls provide.The second dimensionis the "structure are concerned: withwhichmanysociologists This refers to a setof questions theway in whichthemassmedia and and leadership; theroleof associations is "thegroundof conThe thirddimension each other. their publicinfluence writers. other thathas perturbed sensus"whichtakesaccountof a distinction are situations historical of specific to thestudy relevant Some of the attitudes them take of them, conscious hardly are people character: of long enduring wherethesebasic forgranted, and theycome to the foreonlyin situations shouldbe of consensus" "grounds Such are somehowthreatened. sentiments issues. controversial on current fromopinions distinguished Two of the"publicopinionsystem." form The three together components in Oncken. found we elements of groups the two to parallel themare clearly which has aims at takingcare of anotherdifficulty The thirdcomponent What aspectsof popularsentiment duringthe last century: plaguedwriters
6 An interesting of the Arabicnumber sysparallclcould be developedwith the invention but it permitted the formulation and laterthe tem.This was also of a highlytechnical nature, of antiquity. with the numerical symbolism solution of problems whichwere unmanageable 7 Robert Freedomin the UnitedStates(New York: ColumbiaUniverM. McIver,Academic as part of the "public opinionsystem" is sityPress,1954). The "structure of communication" commonto manywriters in the classical tradition. steeped a felicitous way to bringout a feature Journal of Sociology, approachto Hans Speier,e.g. (in the American 1950) takesan "historical on ways in whichopinionwas formed, public opinion;" he mainly providesvaluablematerial is he concerned with "opinion for instance, in coffeehouses?salons, etc, Only tangentially alignment,"

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are significant forthean.alysis ofsocial events? The French socialpsychologist, Gabriel Tarde,8 hasproposed a three-way distinction: tradition, opinion, andfashion. The German sociologist, Toennies, hasparalleled thewellknown distinction between and Gessellschaft bycoordinating religion Gemeinschaft withtheformer and opinion withthelatter. The problem was always to place"public opinion" somewhere between therather permanent and subconscious valuesystem ofa society andthefleeting reaction ofa people tothe passing events oftheday. Probably themost productive formulation ofthis kind hasbeen taken over and developed byhistorians under theterm "climate ofopinion."9 Thisconcept became fashionable in theseventeenth century, andacquired prominence through Carl Becker's analysis of theeighteenth century in Enlightenment France. It is often drawn onbyhistorians when they explain why they arenot interested in contemporary polling: they assert thatwe do not investigate quasi-permanent sentiments out of which growopinions on specific events. A sociologist giving thepresidential address attheannual meeting ofAAPOR recently acknowledged theexistence of theissuebyadmonishing us to pay more attention tothestudy of"mentality."
RESEARCHING THE "CLIMATE OF OPINION"

Now thisis indeed a topic on which theclassics to teach us. havemuch Herethey were in their certainly element, because historical laws documents, andcustoms arean important source ofinsight intoclimates ofopinion. But again,thesituation is rather complex. Someof ourmore sophisticated contemporaries liketo answer that we candiscover thebasicvalues ofanypopulationgroupby applying methods like projective estests; anthropologists, pecially, incline toward thispointof view.But suchprocedures are costly, on a small even andalmost scale, with a reliable unmanageable There sample. is,however, a possible this in thedevelopment compromise; consists offairly items simple canbe handled projective which within theframe ofa sampling We havenotyetmadea great survey procedure. dealofprogress alongthis andit is therefore line, worthwhile toreview where we stand. Someexamples canbe taken from current studies of"national character." We find considerable differences between nations ifwe asksuchquestions as: Can people be trusted? Is itpossible to change human nature? Should children consult their before parents Is it dangerous tocontrathey getmarried? Shouldclergymen dictone'ssuperiors? or teachers be more in the respected
8 His book on Opinionand the Crowdhas neverbeen translated. It is, however, well summarized in Sorokin'sSurveyof European Sociology.HerbertBlumer'spaper on "mass and of the Tarde pointof view. (See "The Mass, the Public, and Public opinion"is a rendition Opinion,"includedin Readerin Public Opinionand Communication, editedby Bernard BerelIll.: The Free Press,1953.) son and MorrisJanowitz. Glencoe, 9 For some historical on the term"climateof opinion"see R. K. Merton's references essay and Anomie(Free Press,Glencoe,Illinois),p. 378, footnote on Social Structure 6.

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community? Would you rather live in anothercountry? What do you approveor disapprove of mostin yourneighbors? Within a singlecountry, class differences have been made the objectof specialinvestigation. What shouldchildren be punishedfor?How muchdo adolescents confide in theirparents?What decisions does the hubandmake without consulting his wife?The answers indicate whether the"mores"vary between socialstrata. In addition, tensions between classescan be investigated using projective items.Are the courtsand the police considered impartial, or do theyfavor therich?Does a worker or a business man feelhe has more in commonwithpeopleof the same class in othercountries, or withpeople of a different class in his own country? Is it especially interesting to read and booksaboutpeopleof one'sown class? stories 10 Attention shouldbe drawnto findings whichdeserve to be followed up as the historical scene changes.In a survey conductedin Germanyin 1946,a sample of the populationwas asked whether theycoinsidered, physical courage an important qualityin a man. More than90 per centsaid "no." This probably reflected disillusion with the Nazi ideology, as well as an effort to guess what the Americaninterviewer wanted to hear. It would be highly instructive to repeatthisquestiona few yearsafter the revivalof a German If physical in prestige, army. couragegainsrapidly we mayhave to start worrying abouttheconsequences of Germanrearmament.
DICEY REVISITED: THE FEED-BACK EFFECT

Behindthebattleoverdefinitions, then, lie theserious difficulties involved in selecting problems that are importan.t. The choice of problems, in turn, helps determine what typeof techniques need development and what data But thereis also another should be gathered. betweenthe style relationship in a socialscience and itstechnical of thinking The propositions development. which the classicsdevelopedwere of a broaderand altogether nadifferent with which we concernourselves ture fromthe more microsopic findings small enoughto allow theproblems is the discrepancy toda,y. Only rarely of in the older tradition to be approachedwith the techniquesand interest of thenewerone. orientations is found in one of the most famousof the older books: An exception BetweenLaw and Public Opinionin England During Dicey's The Relations The titleclearly thescopeof thework.The authe 19thCentury.11 presents main interest is in the changeswhichcame aboutin England between thor's
10 The general role of such questionnaire items is discussedand exemplified by Jean Social (UNESCO International Stoetzelin an articleon the use of polls in social anthropology was thefirst, in his dissertation in France, Vol. V, No. 3). Stoetzel, incidentally, ScienceBulletin, scienceto attitude research. and political of history therelation to stress 11Secondedition(London: MacMillanCo., 1920).

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when efthepeak of laissez faire, 1840and 1880.The earlierdate represents with economic intereference fortswere made to minimizegovernmental and an had been enacted, affairs. By 1880 a great deal of social legislation calls the era of which Dicey dislikes,and interchangeably era had started of prevailing to tracetheeffects He not onlytries collectivism or of socialism. he also seeksto accountforchangesin opintrends of opinionon legislation; purporta numberof "characteristics"-generalizations ion, and formulates ing to explainthe ways such changescome about.One of theserulescovers or createopinion." effect: "laws foster whatwe todaymightcall a feed-back amount of data Now it happens that we have by now a considerable that Cantwelland Hymanhave demonstrated showingthatDicey was right. in the Congressenactsa law theretendsto be an increase immediately after numberof people who approveof it. (Their examplesrange fromthe debates on enlarging the SupremeCourt to the MarshallPlan.) Planck gives us similardata from France,wherepublic opinionpolls showed increasing agreements rightaftertheyhad been approvalof a seriesof international no such evidencewas signed.But how did Dicey know thiswhen obviously permits separation to him? a reading of his argument Again, careful available the one element. On creative and enduring from the of the "old-fashioned" to think that he can truth" and seems hand,he calls his rule an "undeniable On theother his contention deriveit from basic principles. hand,he supports variousinteresting ideas in thecourseof his argudeveloping withexamples, uncertain enoughabout to him,mostpeopleare sufficiently ment.According derives principle their so thatwhen a law is enacted"its underlying opinion, As a matter offact, he says, from byparliament." itsmererecognition prestige is formulated themorelikely it is-to theless clearly thisunderlying principle on marginalmatters often"surreptitiously be accepted.Casual legislation before theattention if brought introduces ideas whichwould notbe accepted form. of thenation"in a moreexplicit of a theory like thebeginning ofhow an accomplished Here is something like "legitimation," "redirection of attenModernnotions factfindssupport. in a weak opinionstructure" tion"and "thenatureof an unstable equilibrium But themostinteresting factfrom can easilybe read into Dicey's discussion. data our pointof view is thatin noneof themodernpublications presenting has there been theslightest effort to explainit. on thisfeed-back phenomenon shows a seriousgap in our contemporary approach Thus "Dicey revisited" first hint on to fill it. the and gives ways
EMPIRICAL VERIFICATION OF CLASSICAL INSIGHTS

of Sensitizedby one such episode,we can now again raise the questioIn material to applyto the observations of classical wherewe can findfurther cannotcomefromone singlepublicopinion authors. Obviouslythismaterial

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are usuallytoo short research by empirical poll,and thetimeperiodscovered comparative public to collect to be of muchhelp. But we are now beginning The imgeneralizations. opiniondata,and theseare likelyto lead to broader files gathother fields. The cross-cultural from petusforthishas comelargely books have yieldeda numberof interesting ered at Yale by anthropologists of a largenumpractices or the childrearing comparing the social structure theproductivity berof primitive have compared tribes. Industrial sociologists of leadership and personalinteracconditions of work teamsundervarying have begun to use the forty-eight tion among members. Politicalscientists exampleis a study A veryinteresting statesas a kind of politicallaboratory. is in a state the system to showthattheweakerthetwo party whichattempts moreinfluential are thepressure groups.12 One research is beingincludedin this new movement. Slowly,attitude of the ways in whichBrycecomparedEngland withAmericawas in regard one could distinguish to politicalparticipation. He feltthatin each country discuss threestrata:thosewho make politicaldecisions;thosewho seriously themand influence the decisionmakersthrough thepress,books,meetings, masses.Bryce the politically inertand uninterested and so on; and finally, largerin the UnitedStates thought thatthe middlegroupwas considerably than in Europe; but he had no evidence.'3Today it might,however,be Woodward by Julian constructed activity" suppliedby the"indexof political activities on their respondents' information and Elmo Roper.'4They obtained politics in partiesand pressure groups,the extentto which theydiscussed etc.Finally,theydividedtheAmerifrequency of voting, withfriends, their into fourgroups:Those who were veryactive(10 per cent), can population thosewho were active(17 per cent), thosewho wereinactive(35 per cent), and thosewho were veryinactive(38 per cent). Probablythe real decision butreasonable readingof thequessample, makers werenotincludedin their tionsasked byWoodward and Roperwould make the active27 per centcor73 per centto his third. As secondgroupand theinactive respondto Bryce's but such an index,once arbitrary, usual, the divisionhas to be somewhat overtimeand space. would be suitableformakingcomparisons constructed, our bestexamplecomesfroman attitude In theinternational survey field, whichUNESCO carriedout in nine countries during1948.'5We selectone attitudes to an economicindex.The rephase of thisstudybecauseit relates in the world would were asked which country in nine countries spondents
12 "Reportof the Committee on American Legislatures," Belle Zeller,editor, American PoSee also P. T. David "Comparative of liticalScienceAssociation. StatePoliticsand theProblem in Politicsand Government, in ResearchFrontiers PartyRealignment" The Brookings Institution,1955. 13American PartIV, Ch. X. Commonwealth, 14 "PoliticalActivity of AmericanCitizens,"American PoliticalScienceReview,Vol. XIV, December1950,p. 872. 15 Buchananand Cantril, How NationsSee Each Other, Urbana: Univ. of Ill. Press,1953.

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16 While thereis agreement littlework has been done on the generallogic of the problem, of social are actuallysupported by factsin the discussion to analyzein detail how arguments withthe rule of formallogic. But we also do not mean this is not identical Obviously affairs. What we have in analysts. by content whichhave been described of propaganda, the misuses fromnecessarily conclusions to come to reasonable of efforts description mind is the systematic are relatedto data. The problemis similarto the questionof how policydecisions insufficient either. This has not been well investigated and business. in government information factual 17 (New York, 1913.)

givethemthelifetheywantedto live.For each of the nine nationstheprowas computedas an who named theirown country of respondents portion made availof statistics a set to related This thenwas "indexof satisfaction." calory capita of theUnitedNationsshowingthe"per agency ableby another with of .75 correlation a had The measureof economicwell-being supply." speculations. interesting suggest Even thedeviations theindexof satisfaction. highin but was relatively Mexico had thelowestfoodstandard For instance, of its citizens.Perhaps this may be explainedby the high the satisfaction and also by an improvement by the revolution engendered moralepossibly hand,werelow on the other of living.The Netherlands, overpaststandards be due to This might good foodsupply. in spiteof a relatively in satisfaction in the loss of Indonesia,or the high populationdensity war devastation, Holland. to one elementin the picturewhich we bypassed We now must return with the problemof much concerned is v'ery before. The classicaltradition government between publicopinionand democratic relation whattheproper is pollsters should be. Rogers' most valid objectionagainstcontemporary on this issue: theyeitherdo not thinkabout it or theymake naive exactly do whatthepubshouldactually thatthegovernment to theeffect statements and problem, lic opinionpolls tellthemthepeoplewant.This is a normative of thediscussion between to know whattherelation it is important therefore can be. The more we research of empirical values and the factualfindings themorecertain of variousmeasures, know abouttheprobableconsequences for,and the theywill realizethe values we strive can we be as to whether values themselves.'6 morewiselycan we chooseamong the conflicting suchas thisone value problems on publicopinion, writings In the earlier language which made communication were discussedin a pseudo-factual forexample, difficult. thefirst major Consider, especially between generations book on thetopic:A. LawrenceLowell,Public Opinionand PopuAmerican In the initialeighty pages or so of thisbook,Lowell prolar Government."7 reader of a modern reaction posesto findoutwhat"true"opinionis. The first and to discardthe is to thinkthequestionabsurd(what is trueelectricity?), one would be a mistake. effort, For, upon considerable book. This, however, learns thatby"true"Lowell meansthekindof publicopinionwhicha demoshouldtakeintoaccount. cratic government that Lowell has threeverydifferent Followingthis lead, one discovers

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theyare: (a) opinof "true"publicopinion.In modernterminology criteria and only thosepeoions shouldcount onlyafterpropergeneraldiscussion, Apthought. considerable ple shouldbe includedwho have giventhematter persons thismeans thatwhile thoughtful pollingpractices, plied to currect of polls,if theyare to be by good polls,the timing can readilybe identified problems. officials, raisesquite a numberof important used by government proppeople's attitudes reallyascertain (b) Neitherelectionsnor referenda around issues,and the fail because theyare not centered erly; the former becausewe do notknowwhether peoplepartici(informed) latter the"right" analyzed and pate. Clearly,Lowell would have welcomedpolls if properly and, (c) Certaintopicsshouldneverbe the subjectof legislation interpreted. is an example cannotbe objectsof "true"publicopinion;religion therefore, deHere the intricate mentioned by the Americanconstitution. specifically us. Should "true"opinionin these certain topicsconfronts cisionof excluding of the tradianalysis areas be ascertained by a publicopinionpoll, historical consideration? Lowell does not or by generalphilosophical tionof a country, interesting problemsabout but he suggests raise or answerthesequestions, what people considerprivateand what theyconsiderpublic issues under variouscircumstances.
PUBLIC OPINION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY

of opinionto government policyhas been discussedin The relationship pay more attention to which we could profitably anothertypeof literature, There are writers who tryto approachnormative thanwe have previously. of historical eventswherethe consequences analysis questionsby the careful and thenjudged. Beforecontakenwere first described of measureactually aspect attention shouldbe drawnto thehistorical concrete examples, sidering revealsthebig changeswhichcame itself. Emden's history18 of the problem of opinionon suchmatters. A century-and-a-half climate aboutin theBritish on the debatesof the it was illegalto publishany reports ago, forinstance, After a whilesummaries were permissible, but the votes British parliament. could not be published.Only since 1845,and after of individualmembers issued. Conversely, up to about 1880it seriousdebate,were official reports for politicians, to includingcabinetministers, was consideredinadmissible addressthe populationat large.They could appeal to theirown constituenitself was thought to be the proper place onlyparliament cies,but otherwise fordebate.'9
18 See footnote much interesting the history information, forinstance, 3. This book contains fellout of usage becauseit was impossible (pp. 74 ff). Petitions in the 19thcentury of petitions the signers A readingof the controversy, represented. to know whichsectorof the population forsomething was groping like representative yearsold, showsthatever,yone almosta hundred neutral out by politically agencies. carried sampling 19Even todaythe Englishtradition fromthe American. If a law is under is quite different on overflow withpanel debatesand pressinterviews in Congress radio and television discussion

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE CLASSICAL TRADITION

51

Three detailedmonographic studieshave analyzed the relationbetween expression governmental policyand contemporary of opinionin an especially interesting way. One was publishedin 1886 and is oftenquoted,but it is length.20 Its setting is theRussian-Turkrarely read becauseof its inordinate ish conflict in the late 1870'sw'hichled up to the Congressof Berlin.The populawas theprotection of the Christian issuebetweenthe two countries to theautionof the Balkans,thenpartof the TurkishEmpire.According a of the Balkan provinces, thor,the Britishpeople were for the liberation Diswish whichcorresponded to the demandsof the RussianGovernment. intoEuraeli (Lord Beaconsfield) of Russian influence fearedan extension arose to help theTurks. Thus a situation rope,and his policywas essentially acted avowedlyagainstthe advice of the in whichthe Britishgovernment with of the British concerned majority pressand of mostcivicorganizations of thedradocumented description foreign affairs. Thompsongivesa vividly matic interplay to the conflict: how eventssometimes of the two partners to each theotherand how theyreacted strengthened the one and sometimes is problem withwhichtheauthoris concerned other's moves.The normative whether even if a government has the majority supportof its own party in parliament, it shall be requiredto resignw'henthereare unmistakable In the 1880's signsthatthepopulation at largedoes not agreewithitspolicy. it probably would be today. thiswas notyetthe British tradition; The data on whichThompsondrew are speeches, resolutions, editorials, and similardocuments. in the minuteanalysisof consists His contribution so to say, But he has to look at thematter, thedifferent phasesof theconflict. on how the decisions weremade in from theoutside;he has no information either the British cabinetor in the variousgroupswhichorganizedwhat he movement. called the "agitations," the anti-Turkish A muchmorerecent book by Lynn M. Case is outstanding becauseit has UnderthesecondEmpiretheFrenchgovernjustthiskindof information.21 menthad a detailedsystem forobtaining on publicopinionfromits reports in all partsof thecountry. officials These were not the usual administrative but rather weredetached individuals, reports of theSecret Police,denouncing to thepolicyof Napoleon of how varioussocialgroupsresponded impressions came in as oftenas once a week. Case IJJJ22In timesof crisisthesereports
does not permit of laws withina Broadcasting Corporation a discussion the issue. The British of thepublicvoice debateto prevent the influence periodof two weekspriorto a parliamentary of thelegislature. on thedeliberations 20 Geo. C. Thompson, Public Opinion and Lord Beaconsfield 1875-1880, (London: MacMillanCo., 1886). 21 FrenchOpinionon War and Diplomacy of PennDuringthe Second Empire,University sylvania Press,1954. 221n the historical part of his book, Toennieshas a sectionon France (pp. 375-401). He a letter by MirabeauurgingLouis XVI to set up just thiskind of an organization. quotesthere of Napoleon III goes back to theseearlystagescannotbe seen Whether the reporting system from Case's book.

52

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

reports; he also tellsof notonlygivesa very good picture of theseinteresting minutes theeffect they had on theforeign policy oftheSecondEmpire,citing were discussed and used as of cabinetmeetings duringwhich thesereports arguments by theparticipants. implicaThis book includesone dramatic episodein whichthenormative Napoleon wantedto interfere tioncomesout withparticular clarity. In 1866, Public in the Austro-Prussian War, in order to avoid a Prussian victory. desirein thepopulation for opinionreports, however, indicated such a strong peace and so much dangerof a revolution in case of war thatthe group in As a result, Prussiabethecabinetwhichwas againstintervention prevailed. came so powerfulthat fouryearslater it could provokewar with France which, in turn, led to thedefeat ofNapoleon III and to theend of his regime. Case callsintodoubtthewisdomof havinga foreign policyguidedbypublic opinion.'3 There he Finally,we have W. P. Davison's studyof the BerlinAirlift. and interviews with actual polling data fromBerlin cross-sections reports as well as Germans.He policymakerson variouslevels among Americans to a throughhesitancy shows how public reactionwent fromincredulity decisionto stickit out on the side of the Westernpowers.Davison stresses was strengthened Americandetermination a complexinterplay: by favorable German attitudes;in turn,the Airliftincreasedthe German expectation thatthe Allies would not desertthem and thatthe Russianswould not be able to take over the city.This made many cautioussouls willingto take of The main practical activities. applications part openlyin anti-communist and publicopinionin a crisis; this studyturnon the relation of leadership because of the need for swiftaction,Davison feelsthat thosein command have to take chancesand trust thatthepeoof the administrative machinery themeventuallyY24 ple at largewill support
NEED FOR A CLASSICAL-EMPIRICAL SYNTHESIS

In sum,valuablethinking on the relation between decision governmental of an ideal typeof research and publicopinionis available.It fallsshort only is moreor less inferential. on publicopinionitself insofar as theinformation of timebefore we havea joinit will take a considerable Undoubtedly, length in theclassical tradition a careful supported by ing of thetwo trends: analysis to concludethese data. Still,it does not seem unjustified modernempirical remarksin a somewhatUtopian mood. During a debate on the relation and public opinion,a historian remarked thateven in the betweenhistory
on the 28 He takesa position quite similarto thatof Almondand Speierin theirwritings topic. to combinepoll data with traditional formthe studyis the first 24In its yet unpublished is availablefroma paper of some of the findings summary analysis.A preliminary historical Santa Monica,California. as P-851,The RAND Corporation, identified

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE CLASSICAL TRADITION

53

studies;theywill know what acwill not need attitude his colleagues future publicopinwhat"effective can infer thatthey tually has happenedand from Ferdinand ion" was at the time. However,the French economichistorian rejoinder: Braudelprovidesus withthe pertinent
is reawhichactually whichlifefinally has made its choice.For one possibility among trace These are theones whichhave leftlittle others have drowned. lizedinnumerable to give themtheirplace becausethe losing And yetit is necessary forthehistorians. somethe finaloutcome, affected moment whichhave at every movements are forces should The historian times up itsdevelopment. byspeeding and sometimes byretarding waves whichat the time its incipent with the opposingelements, also be concerned be realizedat one timestillmighthave Ideas whichcouldn't werenot easilyarrested. idea possible.25 of another victory madethesubsequent

contradictory, often possibilities, of many comeaboutas a result events Victorious

none of trends, of severalpotential In otherwords,if an eventis the result unlessthe realized,thenit cannotbe reallyunderstood whichhavebeen fully and to derivethe theanalysis are known.It is illogicalto reverse "tendencies" have might of trends fromtheactual,becausevariouscombinations potential led to the same outcome.Only attitudedata can providethe components thefinalresult. which produced becomesinall sidestheneed forbroadgauge opinionstudies Thus, from of this task also becomesmore eviobvious.But the complexity creasingly have reasonto be pleased with theirprogdent.While modernempiricists withthe ress, thereis no doubtthattheycan gain much fromclose contact outsometimes bytheclassicists' tradition. We shouldnotbe deterred classical in it has been said,consists of reasoning. The essenceofprogress, modedstyle leavingthe ashes and takingthe flamesfromthe altarsof one's forebears.
to the FrenchRevue economics"contributed remarkon "historical 25From a discussion Economique,1952.

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