Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
14 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 5 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
389.50
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Buy
Target
578
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
291.00
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
355
0.66
COBHAM
275.00
190.10
275.00
Neutral
Buy
305
0.82
MEGGITT
516.00
364.30
516.00
Sell
Sell
442
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1184.00
780.75
1184.00
Neutral
Neutral
1145
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1300.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1109
0.71
1719.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Sell
1632
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
287.80
173.60
290.80
Neutral
Neutral
275
2.02
INCHCAPE
527.00
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
521
1.48
LOOKERS
101.00
56.50
102.00
Neutral
Neutral
110
1.23
24.00
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
312.55
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-807
1.94
739.60
503.20
744.80
Neutral
Buy
933
1.17
58.09
25.29
58.94
Sell
Sell
1.89
297.40
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-164
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1552.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3196
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
555.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
597
0.55
DIAGEO
2037.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1809
0.55
SABMILLER
3583.00
2348.50
3655.50
Neutral
Buy
4074
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
297.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
666
1.23
CARCLO
374.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Buy
412
0.73
2506.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2043
1.04
246.90
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
347
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2620.00
2080.27
2620.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12269
1.45
VICTREX
1604.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1434
1.14
SYNTHOMER
211.20
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
215
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
216.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
1.00
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
82.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
216.20
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
926
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
314.10
114.00
323.30
Neutral
Buy
440
1.58
BELLWAY
1276.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1798
1.15
2110.00
1180.00
2140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3222
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
186.50
115.50
186.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
334
0.83
747.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
536
1.20
CARILLION
271.30
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
739
1.12
CLARKE (T)
56.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
0.82
270.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
0.57
1382.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
806
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
940.50
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1582
1.01
KELLER
860.50
348.25
890.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2004
1.26
1199.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3165
0.97
70.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
206
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
126.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
544.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3182
0.87
15.75
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1080.00
496.69
1109.00
Neutral
Buy
1364
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
212.00
107.30
215.90
Neutral
Buy
272
1.09
SIG
168.00
82.30
170.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.79
2.00
2.00
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
48
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
93.45
40.28
96.55
Neutral
Buy
122
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1456.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2436
2.01
WOLSELEY
3343.00
2121.32
3343.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5273
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1295.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
818
0.75
675.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
899
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
123.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
263
1.29
INVENSYS
396.10
198.90
399.70
Neutral
Sell
366
1.41
LAIRD
204.10
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
73
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1511.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1252
1.00
RENISHAW
1785.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2520
1.26
SPECTRIS
2154.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Neutral
2359
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.16
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
177.75
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
433
1.58
XAAR
595.00
185.00
595.00
Sell
Sell
249
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
84.25
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
98
1.28
BODYCOTE
537.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
531
1.60
CASTINGS
342.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.99
VESUVIUS
372.70
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
519
2.20
FENNER
370.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
577
1.42
HALMA
526.50
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
413
0.75
449.25
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
343
1.37
1319.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1438
1.41
282.50
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
1.82
2967.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2307
1.00
264.80
177.00
264.80
Sell
Sell
221
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.25
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Sell
30
SPIRAX-SARCO
2804.00
1900.00
2804.00
Sell
Sell
2395
0.84
VITEC GROUP
607.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
619
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2402.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2131
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
402.00
398.50
523.50
Buy
Strong Buy
691
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
291.80
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
185
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
389.80
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
208
0.57
TESCO
375.55
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
266
0.68
86.50
18.88
86.50
Sell
Sell
64
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1993.00
1167.00
1999.00
Neutral
Neutral
2136
0.62
CRANSWICK
1056.00
732.50
1080.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2109
0.43
DAIRY CREST
470.90
307.00
470.90
Neutral
Neutral
512
0.94
DEVRO
333.30
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
522
0.32
74.25
54.50
134.25
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
864.50
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1572
0.71
2790.00
2007.00
2845.00
Neutral
Neutral
2816
0.58
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.50
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
449.00
224.40
451.00
Neutral
Sell
382
0.54
1408.00
1000.00
1455.00
Neutral
Sell
1030
1.27
631.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
294
0.95
36.84
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Neutral
40
1.51
136.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.13
29.00
19.50
42.13
Sell
Strong Buy
107
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
396.20
189.00
396.20
Neutral
Buy
527
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
844.00
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1586
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
52.25
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91
1.25
KINGFISHER
330.60
254.10
330.60
Neutral
Buy
409
0.94
423.60
312.20
423.60
Neutral
Buy
543
0.65
56.25
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
62
1.04
325.00
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
361
0.47
NEXT
4592.00
2899.00
4601.00
Neutral
Sell
3929
0.67
TED BAKER
1351.00
830.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
690
0.55
65.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
145.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
116
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
788.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
578
0.39
OPTOS
156.25
145.75
257.00
Neutral
Neutral
168
1.18
769.00
580.00
769.00
Neutral
Sell
690
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
740.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
721
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
329.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
299
0.92
84.13
55.25
93.50
Neutral
Buy
106
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1068.00
469.00
1072.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
556
Beta
0.74
535.00
200.30
544.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1284
1.18
63.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
47
0.90
311.90
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
137.70
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
692
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
201.50
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-506
0.90
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1263.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1226
0.53
AMLIN
428.60
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
79
0.46
BEAZLEY
230.70
132.50
231.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1296
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
537.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2025
0.30
HISCOX
570.50
385.08
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2584
0.48
888.00
659.00
888.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1723
0.31
112.50
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
935
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
492.00
345.00
492.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2927
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2364.00
1967.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4071
1.01
99.85
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Neutral
109
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
350.50
158.00
350.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
795
1.01
800.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
688
0.39
GREENE KING
747.00
474.30
747.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.93
LADBROKES
206.50
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
258
0.93
1949.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1514
1.18
CARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
553.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
659
1.40
366.10
217.40
366.10
Sell
Sell
322
1.12
140.40
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.25
10.00
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
52
1.27
161.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
515
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
477.80
272.70
488.10
Neutral
Sell
330
WETHERSPOON (JD)
605.00
371.30
607.50
Neutral
Buy
757
0.69
WHITBREAD
2702.00
1786.00
2702.00
Neutral
Sell
2034
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
427.20
245.70
430.70
Neutral
Sell
262
0.87
MARSTON'S
150.30
94.40
150.30
Neutral
Sell
20
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
319.90
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
713
1.25
CHESNARA
257.00
155.25
257.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
399
0.70
181.10
106.00
181.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
360
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
216.30
138.70
220.40
Neutral
Neutral
208
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1162.00
660.00
1177.00
Neutral
Sell
1029
1.71
586.50
303.40
586.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1498
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
115.75
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-629
0.37
815.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1842
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
46.25
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
166
1.03
740.00
363.50
744.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4314
1.14
1.00
1010.00
672.50
1010.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8054
INFORMA
505.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-86
1.53
ITE GROUP
288.30
180.00
291.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
1.45
ITV
130.40
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1352
1.54
18.25
4.88
19.00
Sell
Strong Buy
824
1.27
1197.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
335
0.63
77.75
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2768
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
918
0.16
34.86
26.85
34.86
Neutral
Sell
-626
0.50
STV GROUP
132.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
278
0.79
ST.IVES
152.75
67.50
153.00
Neutral
Sell
241
1.50
90.50
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-272
1.59
727.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1796
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
156.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1428
WPP
1125.00
743.00
1125.00
Neutral
Sell
-543
1.35
HIBU
0.41
0.26
3.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
855
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1577.00
1553.00
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1206
1.74
229.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
230
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
940.50
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
853
1.41
1911.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2889
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
345.30
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
991
#NA
LONMIN
286.00
240.84
454.24
Neutral
Buy
354
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5060.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2992
0.34
RIO TINTO
3001.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2361
1.50
3.38
14.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
166
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2130
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1280.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1185.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1246
0.80
BP
465.55
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1569
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
279.60
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-20
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.88
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.82
851.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
450
1.31
1.36
67.50
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
303
393.00
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
288
1.43
2331.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9472
0.84
389.20
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
249
0.53
1023.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
908
1.04
819.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
806
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
116.75
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
255
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
391.30
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
322
0.69
4709.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4749
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.41
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
1.01
3338.00
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6518
0.47
BTG
345.20
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
168
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
699.00
456.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
725
0.25
1685.50
1317.50
1687.50
Neutral
Sell
1571
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.10
1.55
4.00
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2027.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1369
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
45.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-135
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
426.20
274.50
426.20
Neutral
Sell
-629
1.18
BRITISH LAND
621.00
475.40
625.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1842
1.06
Target
Beta
35.50
22.75
35.50
Sell
Strong Buy
166
0.85
980.00
595.00
980.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4314
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2425.00
1708.00
2425.00
Sell
Strong Buy
8054
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
168.00
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-86
0.99
GRAINGER
150.60
83.10
150.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
572.50
367.80
572.50
Strong Sell
Strong Buy
1352
1.10
HAMMERSON
547.00
409.20
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
824
1.19
HELICAL BAR
276.00
164.00
276.00
Neutral
Buy
335
0.77
925.00
704.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2768
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
344.30
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
918
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
145.38
127.00
145.38
Neutral
Sell
-626
0.73
437.50
325.00
437.50
Sell
Sell
278
0.42
333.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
241
0.35
70.75
32.50
70.75
Sell
Sell
-272
1.19
SAVILLS
585.00
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1796
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
639.50
492.00
639.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1428
1.05
SEGRO
285.70
209.40
285.70
Neutral
Sell
-543
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
307.90
145.50
307.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
855
1.59
214.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-18
1.01
UNITE GROUP
370.00
180.25
370.00
Neutral
Sell
54
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1209
1.03
387.60
213.25
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1384
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
128.50
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
123
0.73
2256.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1322
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
446.70
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1355
1.00
KOFAX
322.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
324
1.11
26.75
18.25
26.75
Sell
Sell
24
0.85
686.00
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
992
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
139.00
131.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
0.74
73.88
70.25
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-91
0.52
1901.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2087
0.76
351.00
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
419
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
460.20
237.30
468.00
Neutral
Sell
145
BREWIN DOLPHIN
209.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
119
0.73
9950.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9034
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
399.50
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
200
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
135.87
190.00
Neutral
Sell
129
0.69
1055.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
214
0.86
94.95
66.15
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
101
0.89
3.28
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
173.20
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
63
1.44
ICAP
297.40
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
230
1.07
HELPHIRE GROUP
437.30
227.30
437.30
Neutral
Sell
156
1.70
INVESTEC
493.20
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
115
1.56
1339.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Sell
-60431
1.15
124.60
63.25
125.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
1.32
1499.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1103
0.75
SCHRODERS
2440.00
1166.00
2441.00
Neutral
Sell
1183
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1927.00
966.00
1927.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3789
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
219.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
294
0.92
AGGREKO
1764.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1315
1.05
AMEC
1069.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1146
1.04
597.50
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
324
1.63
1089.00
799.00
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
672
0.48
559.00
324.00
559.00
Neutral
Buy
811
0.76
1304.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
997
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
425.00
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
447
0.39
CAPITA
942.50
602.00
942.50
Neutral
Sell
531
0.51
56.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
68
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
860.00
616.00
860.00
Neutral
Sell
612
BERENDSEN
762.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
992
1.05
DE LA RUE
945.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
603
#NA
DIGNITY
1462.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
827
0.22
DIPLOMA
582.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
493
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
260.40
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
325
1.04
FILTRONA
743.50
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
352
1.13
G4S
256.10
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
295
0.58
95.00
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
123
1.10
HOMESERVE
213.40
137.50
249.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
496
0.94
INTERSERVE
496.00
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
693
1.28
3383.00
2456.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1469
0.78
43.88
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
95
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.38
21.25
35.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
56
MENZIES (JOHN)
788.50
542.00
790.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1309
1.43
390.30
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
323
1.42
MITIE GROUP
269.90
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
346
0.55
97.00
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
241
0.33
PAYPOINT
844.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
700
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
223.60
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
293
1.33
REGUS
177.50
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
108
1.46
92.55
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
55
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
528.00
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
538
0.90
RICARDO
385.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
476
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
214.50
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
312
1.24
RPC GROUP
398.60
351.00
477.00
Neutral
Buy
541
0.78
RPS GROUP
232.60
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
250
1.51
SERCO GROUP
634.00
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
586
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
83.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
170
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
51.00
22.25
51.00
Neutral
Neutral
53
1.26
150.75
73.75
153.00
Neutral
Sell
51
0.63
51.25
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
62
0.93
335.00
235.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
630
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
186
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
305.80
200.70
309.50
Neutral
Buy
350
43.03
27.28
43.08
Neutral
Strong Buy
84
0.70
700.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
612
0.53
Beta
0.91
86.75
67.00
86.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
1.24
1225.00
695.00
1239.00
Neutral
Sell
760
0.09
193.50
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
172
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
272.00
178.00
273.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
178
Beta
1.30
407.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
458
0.98
CLARKSON
1616.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1482
0.80
EASYJET
1142.00
481.20
1153.00
Neutral
Sell
675
0.77
FIRST GROUP
218.80
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
565
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
944.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
398
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1520.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1866
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
212.00
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
252
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
336.50
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
STAGECOACH GROUP
313.10
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
366
0.89
54.25
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
380.80
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
514
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
834.50
641.00
834.50
Neutral
Neutral
889
0.50
PENNON GROUP
665.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
828
0.59
SSE
1592.00
1294.00
1592.00
Neutral
Buy
1844
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1825.00
1513.00
1828.00
Neutral
Sell
1611
0.35
739.50
617.50
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
716
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
IntelliSys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of IntelliSys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. IntelliSys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the IntelliSys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, IntelliSys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or IntelliSys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any IntelliSys reports and/or the IntelliSys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
IntelliSys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No IntelliSys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 16 of 17
may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
www.intellisys.uk.com
14 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 17 of 17