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Market Outlook

May 13, 2013

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias tracking
marginally positive opening in SGX Nifty, which is higher by 0.2%.

BSE Sensex

0.2

40 20,122

Nifty

0.2

12

6,107

US markets moved mostly higher on Friday, despite a relatively quiet day in terms
of news. The gains on the day, resulted in the Dow and the S&P 500 reaching new
record closing highs, while the Nasdaq rose to another twelve-year high. European
markets too rose on Friday after companies like ArcelorMittal and BT Group Plc
reported better than expected results and data showed German exports recovered
as expected in March, boosting hopes of economic revival.

MID CAP

0.3

20

6,540

SMALL CAP

0.3

20

6,186

BSE HC

1.5

136

8,904

BSE PSU

0.6

40

6,893

BANKEX

0.2

33 14,617

AUTO

0.0

6 11,269

METAL

0.6

50

8,835

OIL & GAS

0.3

30

8,847

(0.3)

(16)

6,057

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

Meanwhile positive global cues and better-than-expected IIP numbers helped


Indian shares end notably higher on Friday. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty rose by
0.7% each after government data showed India's industrial output grew by 2.5% in
March compared to a contraction of 2.8% in the year-ago period. Markets were
flat on the special trading session held by exchanges on Saturday during which BSE
tested its disaster recovery software.

Markets Today

BSE IT
Global Indices

Dow Jones

0.2

36 15,118

NASDAQ

0.8

27

3,437

FTSE

0.5

32

6,625

Nikkei

2.9

416 14,608

The trend deciding level for the day is 20,108 / 6,102 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,161 20,200 / 6,120 6,132 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
20,108 / 6,102 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
20,069 20,016 / 6,089 6,072 levels.

Hang Sang

0.5

110 23,321

Straits Times

0.3

11

3,444

Shanghai Com

0.6

14

2,247

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY

INFY

(0.9)

(0.4)

$42.9

WIT

(0.9)

(0.1)

$8.0

IBN

0.0

0.0

$47.0

HDB

0.9

0.4

$42.5

S2
20,016
6,072

S1
20,069
6,089

PIVOT
20,108
6,102

R1
20,161
6,120

R2
20,200
6,132

News Analysis

Industrial growth for FY2013 at subdued 1.0%, March IIP improves to 2.5%
Diesel prices hiked by `1/litre
MM union leaders at Nashik plant calls off hunger strike
Result Review: NTPC, RCOM, Ashok Leyland, Central Bank, Apollo Tyres,
Dena Bank, Punj Lloyd, Ashoka Buildcon, Electrosteel castings, ITD
Cementation
Result Preview: Nestle India, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 09, 2013)


` cr
FII
MFs

Purch
2,381
314

Sales
1,588
524

Net
793
(210)

MTD
6,531
(1,599)

YTD
67,689
(10,190)

FII Derivatives (May 10, 2013)


` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

Purch
1,461
1,384

Sales
1,123
1,499

Net
337
(114)

Open Interest
15,046
27,038

Gainers / Losers
Company

Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)

Company

Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)

MMTC

264

8.0

Sobha Dev

398

Hindustan Copper

111

3.9

Motherson Sumi

206

(2.5)

Muthoot Fin

155

3.9

Bharat Elect

1,264

(2.1)

Wockhardt
Essar Oil

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(2.5)

1,739

3.8

Coromandel Intl

192

(1.1)

86

3.4

Mphasis

429

(1.0)

Indian ADR

Advances / Declines

BSE

NSE

Advances

821

684

Declines

885

688

69

111

Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)

BSE

3,414

NSE

1,007

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Industrial growth for FY2013 at subdued 1.0%, March IIP


improves to 2.5%
As per Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial growth
in March 2013 improved to 2.5% yoy, in line with market expectations. It
compares positively to a marginal 0.6% yoy growth in February 2013 and 2.8%
yoy de-growth in March 2012 owing to growth in consumer non-durables and
capital goods segments. Overall during FY2013, the index decelerated and
reported a shallow 1.0% growth as compared to 2.9% growth in FY2012 and a
more robust 8.2% growth in FY2011 on account of broad-based slowdown
amongst its components. Growth in eight core industries (37.9% weightage in the
index) recovered sharply to 2.9% in March 2013, having witnessed a decline of
2.4% in the previous month.
Performance on Sector-wise classification
The Manufacturing sector continued to support IIP growth for the third straight
month. It reported a 3.2% yoy growth as compared to a 3.6% decline in growth in
the corresponding period of the previous year. The Electricity sector reported a
3.5% yoy growth after posting a 3.2% yoy decline in the previous month. But for
FY2013 as a whole, growth more than halved for the Manufacturing as well as the
Electricity sector at 1.2% yoy (as against 3.0% yoy in FY2012) and 4.0% yoy (as
against 8.2% yoy in FY2012) respectively.
The Mining sector continued to remain in negative territory and contraacted by
2.9% yoy, albeit lower than the decline of 7.6% yoy in the previous month. This
can be attributed to a slight 0.3% and 0.2% yoy revival in production of coal and
crude oil each, after contracting by 8.0% and 4.0% yoy respectively in February
2013. We expect the overhang on growth in the Mining sector to continue in
FY2014 as well in the absence of meaningful reform measures. The decision on
reopening Category B mines in Karnataka is likely to improve production in the
sector to some extent with a lag of about two quarters.
Performance in the Use-based category
The Capital Goods index posted a growth for the second straight month at 6.9%
yoy following a steep 20.1% yoy de-growth in March 2012. Production in
commercial vehicles, having the highest weightage in Capital Goods, has declined
during the month but performance of the capital goods sector has been supported
by very high growth in components such as rubber insulated cables (247.3% yoy)
and aluminum conductor (45.0% yoy) etc. Excluding the performance of the
volatile capital goods segment, IIP growth stood at 1.8% yoy. Overall, for FY2013
the capital goods index has declined by 6.3% as compared to a 4.0% growth in
FY2012 reflecting the subdued investment environment.
The Consumer Durables segment contracted for the fourth straight month by 4.5%
yoy indicating worryingly that the consumption slowdown continues to weigh on
overall growth. On the other hand, Consumer non-durables reported a pick-up to
6.5% yoy (owing to a low base effect), supporting an overall 1.6% yoy growth in
consumer goods. The consumer non-durables segment has contributed about
120bp to growth in the headline IIP growth print of 2.5% during March 2013.

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Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Overall during FY2013, the index decelerated and reported a shallow 1.0% yoy
growth as compared to 2.9% yoy growth in FY2012 and a more robust 8.2% yoy
growth in FY2011 on account of broad-based slowdown amongst its components.
We believe that industrial activity is likely to have bottomed out in FY2013. We
expect industrial activity as measured by the IIP to gradually improve to about
3.3% yoy in FY2014, owing to our expectation of growth of around 2.5% yoy in
mining, 3.0% in manufacturing and 7.2% in electricity sector. We expect revival in
industrial activity to be supported by a low base, lagged impact of monetary
easing, the recent pick-up in exports and anticipated improvement in investment.

Diesel price hiked by `1/litre


Media reports suggest that the Oil marketing companies (OMCs) have raised the
price of diesel by `1/litre. In January 2013 the government had given its nod for
diesel price to be raised in small proportion every month. This is in-line with our
expectation that in the next 12-18months the subsidy on diesel will be completely
removed. Hence, we maintain our estimates and rating on ONGC and GAIL.

MM union leaders at Nashik plant calls off hunger strike


According to media reports, the indefinite hunger-strike by two union leaders at
Mahindra & Mahindras (MM) Nashik plant has been called off. This is following
positive talks between the MM management and union leaders on the issue of
impending wage settlement. The two senior union leaders at the Nashik plant were
on a hunger strike since May 1, 2013 demanding a quick resolution to the wage
settlement agreement which expired in February 2013. However, the protests were
peaceful and the production at the plant was not impacted due to the strike.
The Nashik plant manufactures Scorpio, Xylo, Bolero and Quanto. At `970, MM is
trading at 14.2x FY2015 earnings. Due to the sharp run-up in the stock price over
the last one month, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Result Review
NTPC (CMP: `154/TP: `163/Upside : 5%)
For 4QFY2013, NTPCs top-line performance was below our estimates, registering
a growth 1.2% yoy to `16,462cr, due to lower off take. Gross generation in
4QFY2013 stood at 60.3bn unit, flat yoy. On the EBITDA front, OPM contracted
by 156bp yoy mainly on account of increase in other expenditure (due to higher
water charges). Consequently, net profit grew by 4.0% yoy to `2,698cr. We
recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with target price of `163.
Y/E
March

Sales
(` cr)

OPM

PAT

EPS

(%)

(` cr)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

81,951

24.1 11,189 13.6

13.0

11.4

1.4

9.4

2.3

FY2015E

92,264

24.3 12,310 14.9

13.1

10.3

1.3

8.7

2.1

Reliance Communication (CMP: `111/ TP: Under review)


Reliance Communication (RCom) reported modest set of numbers for 4QFY2012,
aided mainly by a jump in data usage and GSM connections and other income
from reversal of an earlier provision. The company registered top-line (including
other income) of `5,956, up 12.3% qoq. Revenues from wireless business came in

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Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

at `4,626cr, up 2.5% qoq. The better-than-expected result was also in part due to
a one-time reversal from money provisioned towards write-down of assets in the
course of a subsidiary restructuring exercise. RCom had earlier provisioned
`3,000cr in anticipation of required write-downs during a court-approved plan to
restructure its subsidiaries, but credited `550cr from it back during the quarter.
Adjusting for that, revenues grew by 2.0% qoq. ARPM came in at `0.44/min,
almost flat qoq. Total minutes in the network grew by 2.3% qoq to 105.4bn.
Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 30.9%, down 30bp qoq. PAT came in at
`303cr, up 187% qoq. The stock is currently under review.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2014E

22,221

32.0

FY2015E

24,253

PAT EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

895 4.3

2.4

25.6

0.6

8.0

2.6

32.2 1,327 6.4

3.4

17.3

0.6

6.8

2.2

(` cr)

Ashok Leyland (CMP: `22/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)


Ashok Leyland (AL) reported extremely weak performance for 4QFY2013, which
was broadly on the expected lines, on account of significant contraction in
operating margins (down sharply by 554bp yoy to 5.3%) owing to higher discounts
in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment, inferior productmix and lower utilization levels. Additionally, higher interest cost due to higher
working capital requirement also impacted the adjusted bottom-line. The company
reported a net profit of `150cr primarily on account of an exceptional gain of
`134cr (due to profit on sale of non-current investments). Adjusted for the
exceptional gain, ALs bottom-line stood at `16cr which was broadly on the
expected lines.
For 4QFY2013, net sales posted a significant decline of 14% yoy to `3,728cr;
however, it was slightly ahead of our expectations of `3,520cr. The decline in the
top-line was driven by an 11.2% yoy drop in net average realization following
higher levels of discounts and adverse product-mix (higher proportion of Dost in
the volume-mix at ~32% vs. ~14% in 4QFY2012). Total volumes too registered a
decline of 2.9% yoy led by 23.3% yoy decline in MHCV volumes. However, Dost
sales witnessed a substantial increase of 125.3% yoy (on a low base) and 38.1%
qoq during the quarter. At the operating level, EBITDA margins registered a sharp
contraction of 554bp yoy to 5.3% as against our estimates of 6.4%, largely on
account of higher discounting and lower utilization levels. As a result, other
expenditure and staff cost as a percentage of sales surged 210bp and 190bp yoy
respectively. Further, raw-material expenditure as a percentage of sales too
increased 170bp yoy during the quarter. Consequently, adjusted net profit stood at
`16cr for the quarter. On a sequential basis, EBITDA margins improved 102bp
driven by 52.8% and 1.4% growth in volumes and net average realization
respectively. At `22, the stock is trading at 8.2x FY2015E earnings. We shall
release a detailed result note post earnings conference call with the management
which is scheduled today. Until then, the stock rating is under review.

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Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2014E

13,891

FY2015E

16,263

PAT EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

9.6

539 2.0

12.1

11.1

1.8

5.2

0.5

9.7

724 2.7

15.2

8.2

1.6

4.3

0.4

(` cr)

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Central Bank - (CMP: `72 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Central Bank reported healthy set of numbers for the quarter, as it posted Net
profit of `169cr as against a loss of `105cr in 4QFY2012 (the bank had
completely switched-over to system based NPA recognition during that quarter,
resulting in substantial provisioning). Key takeaways from the result were healthy
NII growth (21.4% yoy, in-line with expectations), strong performance on the noninterest income front (growth of 47.4% yoy) and sequential improvement in the
asset quality front (after witnessing continued stress for several quarters, Gross and
Net NPA levels, on an absolute basis came in lower by 5.4% and 14.9% qoq). At
the CMP, the stock trades at valuations of 0.6x FY2015E ABV, which is relatively
expensive than some of the other mid-size PSU banks with a better asset quality
outlook and return ratios. Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendation on
the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

8,079

2.6

1,709

14.9 100.0

0.6

12.2

4.6

0.7

FY2015E

9,086

2.6

2,027

18.0 118.3

0.6

13.3

3.9

0.6

March

Apollo Tyres (CMP: `94/ TP: `104/ Upside: 10%)


Apollo Tyres (APTY) reported lower-than-expected results for 4QFY2013 owing to
sluggish performance across the three geographies due to slowdown in demand.
The adjusted profit (consolidated) at `123cr (down 21.9% yoy and 31.5% qoq)
came in below our expectations of `181cr as the performance was impacted by
drop in standalone volumes (down 10% yoy) and also due to significant increase
in the depreciation expense (up 32.8% yoy and 30.3% qoq).
For 4QFY2013, APTYs consolidated top-line declined by 6% yoy (5.6% qoq) to
`3,038cr, which was lower than our expectations of `3,228cr, largely on account
of a 9.9% (flat qoq) and 9.3% yoy (24.1% qoq) decline in standalone and South
Africa revenues respectively. While the revenues at the European operations
remained flat in Euro terms due to 3% yoy decline in volumes; favorable exchange
rate movement led to a 7.6% yoy (down 10.7% qoq) growth in INR terms. On the
standalone front, the company registered a volume decline of 10% yoy on account
of the weak OEM demand and also due to slower off-take in the replacement
segment. The Management stated that the utilization level across the three
geographies remains in the range of 70-80%. On the operating front, EBITDA
margins declined 16bp qoq and stood at 11.7%, which was slightly lower than our
expectations of 12.2%, despite the 9.1% qoq decline in raw-material expenditure.
This was on account of increase in other expenditure which as a percentage of
sales surged 220bp qoq led by higher marketing spends and increase in research
and development expenditure. Employee expense as a percentage of sales too
witnessed an increase of 80bp on a sequential basis. However, on a yoy basis,
EBITDA margins improved 53bp driven by softening of natural rubber prices which
led to a 12.2% yoy decline in raw-material costs. At the standalone level, EBITDA
margins witnessed a sharp improvement of 261bp yoy (201bp qoq) to 12.1% as
the natural rubber cost for the company declined by 29.4% yoy.

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Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

We lower our volume estimates for FY2014/15 to account for the subdued
demand scenario in the key geographies, India and Europe. However, we expect
the operating margins to remain stable as the company will continue to benefit
from the softening of commodity prices. We expect the company to register ~10%
and 12% CAGR of in net sales and net profit respectively over FY2013-15. At `94,
the stock is trading at 6.3x FY2015E earnings. We retain our Accumulate rating on
the stock with a target price of `104.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT EPS
(` cr)

(`)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

13,852

11.4

647 12.8

17.5

7.3

1.2

4.2

0.5

FY2015E

15,487

11.5

750 14.9

17.3

6.3

1.0

3.8

0.4

Dena Bank- (CMP: `94/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


During 4QFY2013, Dena Bank posted a moderate operating performance, with
operating income and operating profit decline of 1.4% and 15.7% yoy,
respectively. The bank faced asset quality pressures during the quarter (as their
gross and Net NPA on an absolute basis increased by 10.3% and 12.3% qoq,
respectively) and consequently their provisioning expenses increased by 17.5% yoy.
Due to higher provisioning expenses and moderate operating performance, the
bank reported a PAT decline of 50.7% yoy to `126cr. At CMP, the stock trades at
valuations of 0.5x FY2015 ABV. We recommend Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

3,334

2.7

827

23.6 162.4

0.8

15.5

4.0

0.6

FY2015E

3,700

2.7

927

26.5 184.3

0.8

15.3

3.5

0.5

March

Punj Lloyd (CMP: `54 / TP: - / Upside: -)


For 4QFY2013, Punj posted mixed set of numbers with subdued performance on
revenue front, however owing to higher tax credit provision during the quarter led
to a profit at earning levels. The company reported a top-line of `3,292cr in
4QFY2013 registering a growth of 8.4% yoy. EBITDA margins decline by
45bp/217bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 7.9% in 4QFY2013. Interest cost for the
quarter came in at `195cr, a jump of 4.5% yoy while depreciation came at `79cr,
an increase of 12.9% yoy. On the bottom-line front, PAT came in at `16cr (`9cr) in
4QFY2013, registering a growth of 75.8%. This was mainly due to higher tax
credit provision of `11cr in 4QFY13 vs. `5cr in 4QFY2012. We continue to
maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

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Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2014E

13,116

FY2015E

15,119

PAT EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

10.8

44 1.3

1.5

42.6

0.6

5.3

0.6

10.8

64 1.9

2.2

29.2

0.6

5.1

0.6

(` cr)

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Ashoka Buildcon (CMP: `229 / TP: under review/ Upside: -)


Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) posted 4QFY13 results reflect improvement in execution
however bottom-line disappoints owing to lower-than-expected operating
performance and exceptional item. ABLs top line reported a robust growth of
38.8% yoy to `542cr in 4QFY2013 and was higher than our estimate by 19.0%.
On the EBITDAM front, ABLs margins came in at 16.7%, a dip of 336bp on a yoy
basis and below our estimate of 23.0%. This was mainly due to increase in
operating expense (a jump of 44% yoy). On the bottom line, ABL reported a PAT of
`6cr (our estimate was `45cr) in 4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 86.2% yoy.
This was mainly on back of lower-than-expected operating performance and an
exceptional item of `15.7cr. Adjusting to this, PAT came in at `22cr, a decline of
52.6% for the quarter. At CMP, the stock is trading at P/E and P/BV of 9.2x and
0.9 FY2015 earnings. The stock rating is currently under review. We shall revise
our estimates post earnings conference call with the management which is
scheduled on 14th May 2013 at 4.30pm.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

FY2014E

2,013

FY2015E

2,293

PAT EPS

(%) (` cr)

ROE

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

22.5

143 26.0

12.3

8.6

1.0

10.1

2.3

22.5

135 24.4

10.3

9.2

0.9

9.0

2.0

Electrosteel Castings (CMP: `18, TP: `26, Upside: 44%)


Electrosteel Castings reported its 4QFY2013 results. Its net sales decreased by
1.5% yoy to `495cr. The companys EBITDA grew by 717.1% yoy to `40cr mainly
because of lower raw material costs and other expenditure. The other income rose
by 135.8% yoy to `57cr and therefore it reported a net profit growth of 652.7%
yoy to `44cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `26.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT EPS
(` cr)

(`)

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

1,976

6.5

48 1.4

2.9

12.9

0.1

14.7

1.0

FY2015E

2,017

6.7

59 1.7

3.5

10.5

0.1

14.3

1.0

ITD Cementation (CMP `184 / TP `239 / Upside: 30% )


ITD Cementation reported numbers for 1QCY2013. The revenue of the company
for the quarter declined by 7.6% on yoy basis, mainly on account of delay in
project execution and hence the delay in revenue recognition. However, on qoq
basis, the revenue witnessed a growth of 13.2% and came in at `355cr, better
than our expectation of `339cr. The company's operating margin contracted by
295bp yoy to 9.8% mainly because of higher employee cost as a percentage of
net sales. Consequently, profit for the quarter witnessed a decline of 53.3% on yoy
basis to `6cr against our estimate of `5cr. However, given the companys
promising outlook with a strong order book of `3,480 executable over a period of
two and a half years, we remain positive on its growth outlook. The stock is
currently trading at a PBV of 0.5x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the
stock with a target price of `239 based on the target PBV of 0.6x for CY2014E.

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Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

RoE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

1,430
1,573

11.6
11.7

26
37

22.6
31.9

6.3
8.3

8.1
5.7

0.5
0.5

4.8
4.5

0.6
0.5

CY2013E
CY2014E

Result Preview
Nestle India (CMP: `4,905/TP:-/Upside:-)
Nestle India is set to announce its 1QCY2013 results today. Top-line is expected to
grow by 9.4% yoy to `2,240cr. OPM is expected to increase by 81bp yoy to 22.5%.
Net Profit is expected to increase by 5.8% yoy to `292cr. We maintain a neutral
rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

9,739

21.5 1,269131.6

58.8

37.3

18.8

21.9

4.7

CY2014E

11,307

22.2 1,541159.8

69.5

30.7

13.5

17.9

4.0

Bank of Baroda - (CMP: `705 / TP: `815/ Upside: 15.7%)


Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report NII growth of 3.9% yoy to `2,907cr. Non-interest income is
expected to decline by 1.2% yoy to `887cr. Operating expenses are expected to be
higher by 4.6% yoy, while provisioning expenses are expected to be lower by 9.1%
yoy. Net profit is expected to decline by 33.3% yoy to `1,013cr. At CMP, the stock
is trading at valuations of 0.7x FY2015E P/ABV. Currently, we have a Buy
recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

16,318

2.4

5,127

121.4 842.7

1.0

15.2

5.8

0.8

FY2015E

18,682

2.4

6,110

144.6 959.0

1.0

16.0

4.9

0.7

March

Bank of India- (CMP: `339 / TP: - `360/ Upside: - 6.2%)


Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the
operating income and operating profit to decline by 1.2% and 4.7% respectively.
The NII is expected to decline by 3.7% to `2,409cr. Provisioning expenses are
expected to increase by 22.0% yoy to `856cr, which would result in the earnings
de-growth of 20.3% yoy to `760cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.8x
FY2015E ABV. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

14,284

2.3

3,334

55.9 391.7

0.7

13.9

6.1

0.9

FY2015E

16,295

2.3

4,082

68.4 449.9

0.8

15.1

5.0

0.8

March

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Bank of Baroda (13/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,078

1,518

(29)

1,012

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

851

953

(11)

804

1QCY13E

1QCY12

y-o-y (%)

4QCY12

q-o-q (%)

2,312

1,955

18

2,153

30

502

Bank of India (13/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Nestle India (13/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA

531

410

EBITDA margin (%)

23.0

21.0

Net profit

309

231

23.3
34

279

11

Reliance Power Consolidated (13/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,265

533

138

1,464

(14)

EBITDA

414

179

131

493

(16)

EBITDA margin (%)

32.7

33.6

Net profit

233

231

Net sales

33.7
1

266

(12)

Dr. Reddy Laboratories Consolidated (14/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

3,022

2,659

14

2,865

Net profit

444

343

30

363

22

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Reliance Infrastructure (14/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

4,010

5,674

(29)

1,516

164

EBITDA

501

617

(19)

490

EBITDA margin (%)

12.5

10.9

Net profit

353

658

(46)

659

(46)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

839

617

36

868

(3)

EBITDA

589

458

29

666

(11)

EBITDA margin (%)

70.2

74.1

Net profit

379

339

32.3

Adani Ports & SEZ (15/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

www.angelbroking.com

76.7
12

415

(9)

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

United Spirits (15/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,115

1,863

14

2,174

(3)

EBITDA

253

195

30

275

(8)

EBITDA margin (%)

12.0

10.5

66

10

562

81

(18)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

4,779

4,516

5,307

(10)

EBITDA

888

921

(3)

1,012

(12)

EBITDA margin (%)

18.6

20.4

Net profit

718

772

Net sales

Net profit

12.6

Bajaj Auto (16/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

19.1
(7)

819

(12)

Reliance Capital Consolidated (16/05/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

163

329

(51)

101

61

4QFY13E

4QFY12

y-o-y (%)

3QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

8,053

6,361

27

7,627

EBITDA

2,691

2,263

19

2,858

(6)

33.4

35.6

1,899

1,614

Net profit

ITC (17/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)

EBITDA margin (%)


Net profit

37.5
18

2,052

Economic and Political News

IIP rises, but recovery not in sight yet


Rupee falls most in four months
Tesco seeks changes in FDI sourcing norms for multi-brand retail
IRDA plans new norms for micro insurance

Corporate News

Oberoi realty to tie-up Ritz-Carlton for its Mumbai Hotel


Lupin expects to launch 20-25 new products in the US
Shriram City Union Finance to raise `325cr
M&M may shrink UVs for lower excise
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

(7)

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

May 13, 2013

Nestle, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Bank of India, Blue Star, Amara Raja Batteries

May 14, 2013

Dr Reddy's, Reliance Infra., HT Media, United Bank

May 15, 2013

J & K Bank, Mundra Port, United Spirits, IRB Infra, Orchid Chemicals, Hitachi

May 16, 2013

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam, Reliance Capital, D B Corp

May 17, 2013

ITC, Sun TV Network, Motherson Sumi, NIIT

May 18, 2013


May 19, 2013
May 20, 2013

Coal India, Adani Enterp., India Cements

May 21, 2013

Tech Mahindra

May 22, 2013

Larsen & Toubro, Thermax, LMW, Nagarjuna Const., Subros

May 23, 2013

BHEL, Indraprasth Gas

May 24, 2013

Britannia

May 25, 2013

MOIL, Force Motors

May 26, 2013


May 27, 2013

Tata Chemicals, Bajaj Electrical, GIPCL, TTK Healthcare

May 28, 2013

GAIL, Hindalco, Rural Elec.Corp., Colgate, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma, PVR

May 29, 2013

BPCL, Anant Raj

May 30, 2013

M&M, Tata Power Co., Ipca labs, Page Industries, Madras Cements

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

May 13, 2013

11:00AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Apr

8.90

9.40

May 14, 2013

12:00PM

India

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

% Change

Apr

5.96

--

May 15, 2013

11:30AM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

1Q P

0.10

--

2:00PM

UK

% Change

Apr

(7.00)

--

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

1Q A

(0.60)

--

6:00PM

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Apr

(0.60)

(0.60)

6:45PM

US

Industrial Production

Apr

0.41

(0.10)

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Apr F

1.70

--

6:00PM

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Apr

1,036.00

980.00

6:00PM

US

Building permits

Thousands

Apr

907.00

940.00

6:00PM

US

Consumer price index (mom)

% Change

Apr

(0.20)

(0.20)

May 21, 2013

2:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Apr

2.80

--

May 22, 2013

7:30PM

US

Existing home sales

Millions

Apr

4.92

--

May 23, 2013

1:00PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

May A

49.60

--

1:00PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Value

May A

48.10

--

2:00PM

UK

% Change

1Q P

0.60

--

7:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

7:30PM

US

New home sales

May 28, 2013

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

May 29, 2013

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

May 30, 2013

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

May 31, 2013

11:00AM

India

Qtrly GDP YoY%

% Change

June 1, 2013

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

June 3, 2013

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

May

May 16, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Jobless claims change

GDP (YoY)

Value

May A

(22.30)

--

Thousands

Apr

417.00

--

S.A./ 1985=100

May

68.10

--

Thousands

May

4.00

--

% Change

1Q S

2.50

--

1Q

4.50

--

May

50.60

--

49.80

--

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
10.0

11.2
9.2

6.0
4.0

(0.1)
(1.3)

Mfg. PMI

58.0

7.5

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)
7.6

Nov-12

(4.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.6

(1.0) (0.6)

(0.7)

(2.0)

Apr-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

0.5

(2.0)

7.5

2.5

2.4

2.0

Oct-12

4.5

2QFY10

2.5

2.0

5.3 5.5 5.3

Sep-12

6.0

Aug-12

6.5
5.7

8.0

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

7.2

7.3
6.6

56.0

6.8
6.0

54.0
52.0

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0

Feb-12

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

50.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

30.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
7.50

8.00
15.0

7.00
6.50

6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

4.00

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Mar-13

4.00

3.00

May-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

5.00

Apr-12

(30.0)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

0.0

(15.0)

Mar-13

7.5

Jul-12

7.6

7.5

8.2

Jun-12

8.5

May-12

9.0

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

8.4

8.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

136

2,640

1,657

1,906

14.1

14.1

7.7

8.9

17.6

15.3

3.7

3.1

22.2

21.9

1.5

1.3

United Phosphorus

Buy

154

232

6,816

10,298

11,310

16.5

16.5

20.5

23.2

7.5

6.6

1.3

1.1

18.0

17.4

0.6

0.5

Amara Raja Batteries

Accumulate

285

326

4,860

3,418

3,892

15.1

14.9

19.8

21.7

14.4

13.1

3.5

2.8

27.1

23.7

1.4

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

94

104

4,758

13,852

15,487

11.4

11.5

12.8

14.9

7.4

6.3

1.2

1.0

17.5

17.3

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

22

27

5,960

13,891

16,263

9.6

9.7

2.0

2.7

11.1

8.2

1.8

1.6

12.1

15.2

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

271

409

834

965

9.3

10.6

17.3

27.1

15.7

10.0

1.5

1.4

9.5

14.0

0.6

0.5

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,859

2,014

53,798

22,552

25,498

18.6

18.6

117.9

134.3

15.8

13.9

5.7

4.6

40.2

36.6

2.0

1.7

Bharat Forge

Neutral

241

5,601

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

16.6

13.9

2.2

1.9

13.6

14.7

1.0

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

9,012

28,297

9,821

11,394

17.0

17.3

373.5

438.7

24.1

20.5

4.3

3.7

18.0

17.9

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

115

170

394

5,325

5,974

8.4

8.3

40.8

48.5

2.8

2.4

0.5

0.4

17.3

17.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

135

150

11,450

7,053

8,061

14.2

14.5

7.8

9.1

17.2

14.8

2.9

2.5

18.1

18.2

1.3

1.1

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,440

2,394

1,525

1,742

14.5

15.7

88.4

109.5

16.3

13.2

2.4

2.0

15.5

16.5

1.4

1.2

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,705

1,819

34,053

25,274

27,658

14.1

13.7

110.2

139.9

15.5

12.2

5.6

4.4

39.8

40.7

1.1

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

115

154

473

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

3.1

2.6

0.5

0.4

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral

970

59,535

44,550

50,260

11.4

11.7

59.6

68.3

16.3

14.2

3.4

2.8

22.3

21.6

1.1

0.9

Maruti

Accumulate

1,726

1,847

49,870

48,455

55,723

11.2

10.9

107.8

123.2

16.0

14.0

2.4

2.1

16.2

16.0

0.9

0.7

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

211

222

12,386

28,442

31,493

7.5

7.8

12.5

14.8

16.8

14.3

4.2

3.3

27.5

25.8

0.6

0.5

Subros

Buy

26

30

154

1,479

1,685

10.0

9.9

5.5

7.5

4.7

3.4

0.5

0.5

11.1

13.7

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Accumulate

309

324

82,245 206,341 227,695

12.8

13.5

32.3

39.0

9.6

7.9

2.0

1.7

23.1

23.2

0.5

0.4

TVS Motor

Neutral

40

1,915

7,715

8,584

6.0

6.1

5.0

5.8

8.1

7.0

1.4

1.2

18.1

18.5

0.2

0.1

ABB*

Reduce

527

461

11,171

8,073

9,052

5.5

6.9

11.5

16.9

45.8

31.1

4.2

4.0

9.3

13.1

1.4

1.2

BGR Energy

Neutral

200

1,440

4,114

4,886

11.4

10.7

24.9

28.0

8.0

7.1

1.1

1.0

25.2

22.6

0.7

0.6

BHEL

Neutral

197

48,095

43,757

40,934

17.3

16.9

20.9

19.0

9.4

10.4

2.1

1.9

23.7

18.8

1.0

1.0

Blue Star

Buy

172

230

1,547

2,896

3,087

5.6

6.2

9.3

11.7

18.5

14.7

3.0

2.6

17.6

19.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

93

117

5,995

13,790

15,095

6.4

7.4

6.9

9.4

13.6

10.0

1.5

1.4

11.7

14.5

0.5

0.4

Jyoti Structures

Accumulate

30

34

244

3,074

3,355

9.0

8.8

8.7

10.2

3.4

2.9

0.3

0.3

10.4

11.1

0.3

0.2

KEC International

Buy

48

63

1,224

7,709

8,399

6.7

7.2

6.1

8.5

7.8

5.6

1.0

0.9

20.2

23.0

0.3

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

578

6,887

5,931

6,592

9.6

9.7

31.0

34.3

18.7

16.9

3.2

2.8

18.6

17.9

1.0

0.9

1,241

1,361

23,303

11,979

13,254

19.7

21.3

77.1

91.4

16.1

13.6

2.9

2.6

18.7

20.0

1.7

1.4

Capital Goods

Cement
ACC

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

189

29,165

10,232

11,762

23.5

24.5

10.3

12.2

18.4

15.6

3.0

2.8

17.2

18.6

2.3

1.9

India Cements

Neutral

89

2,743

4,777

5,276

17.3

17.1

8.8

10.9

10.1

8.2

0.7

0.7

7.5

8.8

0.9

0.8

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

108

143

1,272

2,313

2,728

19.8

20.7

16.6

23.1

6.5

4.7

0.8

0.7

13.6

16.5

1.1

0.9

Madras Cements

Neutral

250

5,947

4,293

4,855

27.4

28.6

21.8

28.2

11.5

8.9

2.1

1.7

19.6

21.3

1.9

1.5

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,576

15,943

6,540

7,452

27.4

26.6

319.7

369.9

14.3

12.4

3.5

2.8

27.5

25.4

1.8

1.4

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,975

54,137

21,947

25,049

23.8

23.8

106.1

119.8

18.6

16.5

3.1

2.7

17.7

17.3

2.5

2.2

225

272

1,182

2,013

2,293

22.5

22.5

26.0

24.4

8.7

9.2

1.0

0.9

11.7

9.9

2.2

2.0

12

213

2,281

2,492

5.9

6.9

0.7

2.0

16.9

5.7

0.4

0.4

2.3

6.5

0.4

0.3

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

120

167

3,988

4,152

4,624

44.4

45.0

17.0

17.2

7.1

7.0

1.1

1.0

16.2

14.6

3.4

3.4

ITNL

Buy

176

230

3,423

7,444

8,041

27.4

28.9

29.8

32.1

5.9

5.5

0.8

0.7

14.9

14.2

2.6

2.6

IVRCL Infra

Buy

20

35

614

6,287

6,836

8.5

8.5

2.3

3.0

8.5

6.6

0.3

0.3

3.4

4.2

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

75

90

16,743

14,850

15,631

24.9

25.1

2.5

2.9

29.8

26.5

1.2

1.2

4.2

4.7

2.9

2.9

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,562

1,795

96,170

69,586

79,247

11.2

11.1

75.1

84.9

20.8

18.4

3.0

2.6

15.2

15.0

1.6

1.4

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

35

45

895

6,576

7,264

8.2

8.3

4.1

4.8

8.5

7.3

0.4

0.3

4.2

4.7

0.5

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

56

1,865

1,338

1,542

10.2

10.2

3.0

4.8

18.9

11.8

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.2

5.6

5.4

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

112

153

1,691

2,511

2,736

10.6

10.6

7.3

7.8

15.5

14.4

1.9

1.7

13.3

12.7

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

115

164

570

6,824

7,563

9.2

9.4

18.0

23.4

6.4

4.9

0.4

0.4

6.9

8.3

0.5

0.4

Unity Infra

Buy

31

45

229

2,455

2,734

13.4

13.0

14.6

14.9

2.1

2.1

0.3

0.2

12.3

11.3

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Buy

123

155

6,170

7,137

7,907

2.9

2.8

32.3

36.0

3.8

3.4

0.5

0.5

14.2

14.2

Andhra Bank

Neutral

91

5,089

5,285

5,937

3.0

2.9

21.2

23.4

4.3

3.9

0.6

0.6

13.4

13.4

Axis Bank

Buy

1,468

1,714

68,760

19,055

22,710

3.3

3.2

130.7

152.3

11.2

9.6

1.8

1.6

17.2

17.6

Bank of Baroda

Buy

705

815

29,692

16,318

18,682

2.4

2.4

121.4

144.6

5.8

4.9

0.8

0.7

15.2

16.0

Bank of India

Accumulate

337

360

20,091

14,284

16,295

2.3

2.3

55.9

68.4

6.0

4.9

0.9

0.8

13.9

15.2

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

57

3,744

4,289

4,670

2.9

2.8

11.6

13.1

4.9

4.3

0.7

0.6

15.7

15.6

Canara Bank

Accumulate

423

461

18,748

11,673

13,208

2.3

2.3

74.8

85.8

5.7

4.9

0.8

0.7

13.7

14.1

Central Bank

Neutral

72

7,552

8,079

9,086

2.6

2.6

14.9

18.0

4.9

4.0

0.7

0.6

12.2

13.3

Corporation Bank

Accumulate

406

453

6,210

5,397

5,973

2.2

2.2

96.3

105.9

4.2

3.8

0.6

0.5

14.6

14.4

Dena Bank

Neutral

93

3,257

3,334

3,700

2.7

2.7

23.6

26.5

3.9

3.5

0.6

0.5

15.5

15.3

Federal Bank

Neutral

456

7,796

2,916

3,389

3.3

3.3

50.1

59.4

9.1

7.7

1.1

1.0

12.8

13.7

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Neutral

878

135,866

8,928

10,684

3.7

3.7

38.4

45.3

22.9

19.4

5.0

4.4

32.5

32.4

HDFC Bank

Neutral

703

167,311

27,682

33,916

4.6

4.6

35.3

42.7

19.9

16.5

3.9

3.3

21.3

21.8

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,166

1,352

134,528

25,705

30,330

3.1

3.2

83.9

96.3

13.9

12.1

1.8

1.7

15.2

15.7

IDBI Bank

Neutral

88

11,748

9,137

10,041

1.9

2.0

17.8

18.8

5.0

4.7

0.6

0.5

11.7

11.3

Indian Bank

Buy

160

193

6,874

6,276

6,968

3.1

3.1

38.3

42.3

4.2

3.8

0.6

0.5

15.2

14.9

IOB

Neutral

63

5,845

8,205

9,048

2.6

2.5

16.4

20.3

3.9

3.1

0.5

0.4

11.6

13.1

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,361

6,597

3,032

3,118

3.8

3.5

218.1

200.9

6.2

6.8

1.2

1.0

19.9

16.0

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

249

281

12,574

2,113

2,525

2.3

2.3

25.4

29.2

9.8

8.5

1.7

1.5

18.4

18.3

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

259

282

7,542

6,791

7,478

2.7

2.7

56.7

63.4

4.6

4.1

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.1

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

771

889

27,253

21,161

24,166

3.3

3.3

153.4

176.4

5.0

4.4

0.8

0.7

16.1

16.3

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

St Bk of India

Accumulate

Syndicate Bank

24

3,212

1,826

2,081

3.0

2.9

4.0

4.5

6.0

5.3

1.0

0.9

17.6

17.1

2,294

2,567

156,900

67,091

76,746

3.2

3.1

241.2

280.4

9.5

8.2

1.5

1.3

16.5

17.0

Neutral

128

7,723

7,340

8,212

2.9

2.8

26.4

28.7

4.9

4.5

0.7

0.6

15.8

15.2

UCO Bank

Neutral

74

5,562

6,126

6,665

2.6

2.5

12.2

14.4

6.1

5.1

0.9

0.8

11.8

12.6

Union Bank

Accumulate

240

264

14,296

11,226

12,769

2.7

2.7

41.0

47.8

5.8

5.0

0.8

0.7

14.8

15.4

United Bank

Accumulate

60

68

2,235

3,597

4,008

2.6

2.7

16.0

20.8

3.7

2.9

0.5

0.4

12.5

14.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

53

2,626

2,600

2,946

2.0

2.1

9.7

11.0

5.5

4.8

0.6

0.6

11.4

11.7

Yes Bank

Neutral

509

18,273

4,390

5,411

2.8

2.8

41.6

47.9

12.3

10.6

2.6

2.2

23.2

22.1

Asian Paints

Neutral

4,637

44,476

13,319

15,805

15.7

15.7

143.8

170.2

32.2

27.3

10.1

8.0

35.1

32.7

3.3

2.7

Britannia

Neutral

571

6,830

6,417

7,446

5.1

5.5

20.3

25.2

28.2

22.7

9.6

7.6

37.4

37.3

1.0

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,536

20,895

3,588

4,130

21.1

21.6

44.7

51.9

34.3

29.6

30.9

23.0

100.0

89.1

5.6

4.8

Dabur India

Neutral

161

27,974

7,183

8,340

16.8

16.8

5.4

6.3

29.9

25.5

11.6

9.1

41.5

40.1

3.8

3.3

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

4,062

17,083

3,617

4,260

16.1

16.4

120.6

146.4

33.7

27.7

10.4

8.4

33.8

33.4

4.4

3.7

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

847

28,827

7,801

9,017

16.2

15.9

25.1

29.7

33.7

28.5

7.3

6.0

24.9

24.2

3.8

3.3

HUL

Neutral

585

126,483

29,167

33,164

13.6

13.7

17.1

18.4

34.2

31.8

32.9

23.8

113.4

87.0

4.2

3.7

ITC

Neutral

353

278,895

33,506

39,067

36.8

37.0

11.1

13.0

31.8

27.2

10.3

8.4

35.5

34.1

8.0

6.8

Marico

Neutral

213

13,705

5,352

6,204

14.0

14.0

7.9

9.8

26.9

21.7

5.6

4.5

22.8

22.9

2.5

2.1

Nestle*

Neutral

4,884

47,093

9,739

11,307

21.5

22.2

131.6

159.9

37.1

30.6

18.7

13.4

58.8

69.5

4.7

4.0

Tata Global

Neutral

146

9,038

7,998

8,798

9.7

9.8

7.9

8.7

18.5

16.8

2.2

2.2

9.6

9.8

1.0

0.9

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

774

863

53,890

28,633

32,216

21.5

20.7

57.3

61.7

13.5

12.6

3.2

2.7

24.0

21.5

1.7

1.4

82

102

2,461

2,091

2,289

19.0

18.8

10.6

11.3

7.8

7.3

1.7

1.5

22.8

21.7

1.0

0.9

IT
HCL Tech^

Accumulate

Hexaware*

Buy

Infosys

Neutral

2,371

136,137

43,338

47,244

27.5

27.7

169.4

182.6

14.0

13.0

2.9

2.5

20.8

19.3

2.5

2.2

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

170

185

1,902

1,956

2,174

17.9

17.7

20.4

21.9

8.3

7.8

1.2

1.1

14.7

13.7

0.6

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Buy

102

135

1,968

2,513

2,819

16.1

15.5

12.6

14.0

8.1

7.3

1.4

1.2

17.9

16.6

0.7

0.6

Mahindra Satyam

Buy

112

143

13,204

8,456

9,385

19.3

19.1

10.6

11.9

10.6

9.4

2.4

1.9

22.4

20.1

1.1

0.9

Mindtree

Accumulate

859

920

3,568

2,599

2,871

19.4

19.2

85.2

92.3

10.1

9.3

2.1

1.7

21.4

18.9

1.1

0.9

Mphasis&

Reduce

433

395

9,101

6,096

6,646

17.6

17.4

38.1

41.6

11.4

10.4

1.6

1.4

14.2

13.7

1.0

0.8

NIIT

Buy

23

30

381

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

5.4

4.3

0.6

0.5

10.3

12.0

0.1

0.1

Persistent

Accumulate

529

593

2,118

1,445

1,617

25.2

25.0

55.3

59.3

9.6

8.9

1.7

1.5

18.2

16.5

1.0

0.8

TCS

Accumulate

1,495

1,585

292,516

71,833

81,893

28.4

28.0

78.5

88.0

19.0

17.0

5.8

4.7

30.2

27.9

3.8

3.3

Tech Mahindra

Buy

975

1,230

12,519

7,699

8,315

19.3

18.1

107.0

115.0

9.1

8.5

2.0

1.6

21.7

19.1

1.6

1.4

Wipro

Accumulate

355

385

87,461

40,173

43,697

20.4

20.6

26.2

28.5

13.6

12.5

2.7

2.3

19.7

18.4

1.7

1.4

D B Corp

Buy

236

272

4,325

1,787

1,974

25.4

26.4

14.5

16.9

16.2

14.0

3.4

2.9

22.4

22.2

2.3

2.0

HT Media

Accumulate

110

117

2,579

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.0

9.1

13.7

12.1

1.5

1.3

11.2

11.4

0.8

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

90

121

2,991

1,698

1,908

23.9

24.5

7.4

8.4

12.2

10.8

3.1

2.7

26.7

26.8

1.9

1.7

PVR

Neutral

361

1,432

1,343

1,521

18.8

18.9

18.3

22.9

19.7

15.8

1.9

2.0

10.6

12.3

1.1

0.9

Sun TV Network

Neutral

423

16,666

2,293

2,571

68.7

68.7

19.3

22.7

21.9

18.6

5.4

4.7

26.1

27.3

6.7

5.8

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

461

10,439

13,794

17,335

30.7

34.8

48.9

83.6

9.4

5.5

1.0

0.9

11.2

16.7

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Buy

300

345

189,333

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

10.5

9.7

2.9

2.5

37.6

36.2

1.8

1.6

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

18

26

587

2,074

2,176

10.4

11.3

1.9

2.3

9.5

7.9

0.1

0.1

3.7

4.3

0.5

0.2

GMDC

Buy

152

213

4,843

1,944

2,317

49.9

51.7

20.8

25.6

7.3

5.9

1.6

1.3

24.3

24.6

2.0

1.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

121

145

51,147

12,358

13,659

51.4

51.6

16.0

17.6

7.6

6.9

1.4

1.2

19.4

18.4

1.9

1.3

Hindalco

Neutral

106

20,275

88,987

94,163

9.2

9.7

13.8

15.9

7.7

6.7

0.6

0.5

7.6

8.1

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

696

15,526

39,524

42,064

17.1

16.9

71.8

86.3

9.7

8.1

0.8

0.7

8.6

9.6

0.7

0.6

MOIL

Accumulate

221

243

3,717

954

1,062

45.5

47.4

26.1

29.1

8.5

7.6

1.2

1.1

15.1

15.2

1.4

1.1

Monnet Ispat

Buy

195

291

1,241

2,883

3,181

21.7

23.6

40.3

57.7

4.8

3.4

0.5

0.4

10.1

13.0

1.3

1.1

Nalco

Neutral

37

9,471

8,187

8,416

14.5

14.7

3.2

3.3

11.5

11.3

0.8

0.7

6.8

6.7

0.6

0.6

NMDC

Buy

127

179

50,292

10,329

12,540

73.8

75.0

16.6

19.0

7.6

6.7

1.5

1.3

20.6

20.2

2.7

2.1

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

63

26,019

53,685

64,183

9.3

12.2

5.5

8.3

11.5

7.6

0.6

0.6

5.4

7.7

0.8

0.8

Sesa Goa

Neutral

163

14,123

3,742

4,426

32.9

32.8

30.0

29.8

5.4

5.5

0.7

0.6

14.3

12.5

4.6

3.8

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

96

32,414

44,462

45,568

23.2

24.7

18.1

20.2

5.3

4.8

0.6

0.5

11.3

11.4

0.7

0.6

Tata Steel

Buy

318

430

30,899 141,775 151,672

10.5

11.4

35.3

51.7

9.0

6.2

0.7

0.6

7.6

10.3

0.6

0.5

Sarda

Buy

106

153

381

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

3.4

2.9

0.4

0.3

11.8

12.4

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

37

48

498

2,668

2,834

10.0

10.1

4.6

5.2

8.0

7.2

0.2

0.2

3.2

3.4

0.5

0.5

Buy

87

118

285

2,425

2,552

13.7

14.8

33.5

45.3

2.6

1.9

0.3

0.2

11.2

13.1

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Accumulate

303

345

57,957

16,482

16,228

69.4

53.3

53.3

49.6

5.7

6.1

0.9

0.8

16.5

13.6

2.2

1.8

GAIL

Neutral

342

43,420

55,815

63,013

15.3

15.2

35.9

41.5

9.5

8.3

1.5

1.3

17.0

17.1

0.7

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

326

354

278,909 157,962 175,367

35.1

36.2

34.3

39.3

9.5

8.3

1.6

1.5

18.2

18.6

1.5

1.3

Reliance Industries

Neutral

812

262,254 380,031 407,721

9.9

69.3

69.3

78.0

11.7

10.4

1.2

1.1

11.5

11.7

0.6

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

254

3,254

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

10.7

9.9

3.0

2.6

29.6

28.2

0.8

0.7

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

298

4,169

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.6

30.4

11.2

9.8

2.3

2.0

22.6

21.7

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

144

167

10,830

40,356

40,872

5.8

6.4

15.0

16.7

9.6

8.6

2.0

1.7

23.0

21.5

0.3

0.3

65

3,635

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.4

8.2

1.2

1.1

17.8

14.1

3.1

3.3

Alembic Pharma

Accumulate

122

139

2,296

1,736

2,008

17.1

18.9

10.7

13.9

11.4

8.8

3.6

2.7

35.0

34.7

1.4

1.1

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

195

264

5,676

6,279

7,033

16.0

16.0

15.2

19.2

12.8

10.2

1.7

1.4

19.2

18.0

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,504

5,766

1,682

1,917

16.6

16.6

92.4

99.1

27.1

25.3

3.8

3.8

15.7

14.8

3.1

2.5

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

789

962

16,149

7,386

8,863

18.0

18.0

39.5

48.1

20.0

16.4

4.5

3.7

24.8

24.7

2.5

2.0

Cipla

Buy

397

463

31,912

9,130

10,543

24.8

23.0

21.6

23.2

18.4

17.1

3.0

2.6

17.6

16.2

3.2

2.7

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

2,022

34,334

11,662

13,101

21.0

20.8

92.9

103.9

21.8

19.5

4.2

3.5

20.8

19.6

3.1

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Neutral

73

206

587

1,536

1,739

20.2

20.9

15.4

20.6

4.7

3.5

0.5

0.5

11.6

13.7

1.0

0.8

2,329

19,727

2,854

3,145

28.6

28.6

76.6

83.3

30.4

28.0

9.1

8.3

31.1

31.0

6.1

5.4

Buy

63

90

584

784

902

15.2

15.2

7.8

9.0

8.1

7.0

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.8

1.0

0.8

Ipca labs

Buy

564

676

7,120

3,474

4,168

21.0

21.0

37.3

45.1

15.1

12.5

3.6

2.8

26.4

25.3

2.2

1.8

Lupin

Buy

742

877

33,235

11,641

13,933

21.3

21.3

34.8

41.8

21.3

17.8

5.0

4.0

26.2

24.8

2.9

2.4

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

444

18,771

11,400

12,060

12.5

12.5

21.6

22.5

20.5

19.7

3.9

3.4

20.6

18.5

1.6

1.4

Sun Pharma

Neutral

935

96,698

12,563

14,698

42.6

42.6

29.8

35.5

31.4

26.3

5.6

4.7

19.2

19.3

7.1

5.9

72

78

1,091

1,535

1,570

31.9

31.6

13.1

14.1

5.5

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

12.2

1.0

0.8

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Accumulate

155

163

127,928

81,951

92,264

24.1

24.3

13.6

14.9

11.4

10.4

1.4

1.3

13.0

13.1

2.3

2.1

DLF

Buy

237

288

40,328

9,699

12,010

37.0

36.9

6.0

8.4

39.8

28.2

1.5

1.4

3.8

5.1

5.6

4.6

MLIFE

Accumulate

407

446

1,663

888

1,002

26.7

25.9

36.3

40.6

11.2

10.0

1.2

1.1

10.8

11.0

2.1

1.9

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

324

123,097

86,933

96,121

30.2

31.2

10.3

15.7

31.5

20.7

2.2

2.0

7.0

9.7

2.1

1.8

Idea Cellular

Neutral

126

41,700

24,959

27,232

27.1

27.5

3.7

4.7

33.8

26.8

2.7

2.5

8.1

9.2

2.1

1.8

Rcom

Neutral

110

22,766

22,221

24,253

32.0

32.2

4.3

6.4

25.4

17.2

0.6

0.6

2.4

3.4

2.6

2.2

1,460

1,659

3,102

1,863

2,081

11.8

12.4

71.2

83.0

20.5

17.6

4.1

3.5

21.6

21.5

1.4

1.1

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Accumulate

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

176

237

1,755

3,929

4,480

7.4

7.7

15.5

19.7

11.4

8.9

2.0

1.7

17.4

18.7

0.5

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

453

562

573

630

795

14.4

13.6

42.8

51.1

10.6

8.9

2.5

2.0

26.6

25.2

0.9

0.7

Cravatex

Buy

430

566

111

308

351

7.0

7.0

39.6

47.2

10.9

9.1

2.4

1.9

21.8

21.0

0.4

0.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

56

68

856

2,563

2,899

9.8

9.8

10.1

11.3

5.6

5.0

0.8

0.7

14.3

13.8

0.3

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

391

570

510

2,299

2,621

4.7

4.9

46.3

57.0

8.5

6.9

0.4

0.4

5.0

5.8

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Buy

299

352

689

1,453

1,560

9.4

9.8

38.4

41.4

7.8

7.2

1.6

1.4

22.9

20.8

0.3

0.2

Hitachi

Buy

152

177

413

1,053

1,169

6.3

7.1

13.8

17.7

11.0

8.6

1.6

1.3

15.0

16.7

0.4

0.4

Honeywell Automation* Sell

2,456

2,172

1,842

2,131

7.7

7.8

112.4

132.4

21.9

18.6

2.7

2.4

13.3

13.8

1.1

0.9

IFB Agro

Buy

169

198

153

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

5.8

4.3

0.8

0.7

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

184

238

211

1,430

1,573

12.1

12.2

21.8

30.6

8.4

6.0

0.5

0.5

6.1

8.0

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

181

2,926

979

1,164

14.9

15.1

6.0

7.7

30.2

23.5

3.7

3.4

12.9

15.1

3.1

2.6

MRF

Neutral

14,865

6,305

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0

8.3

8.3

1.8

1.5

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.6

Page Industries

Reduce

3,898

3,637

4,348

1,047

1,281

19.6

19.8

127.3

158.1

30.6

24.7

14.6

10.6

54.9

50.0

4.2

3.5

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

563

786

676

1,148

1,360

11.7

11.9

55.5

71.4

10.2

7.9

2.4

1.8

26.3

26.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Accumulate

274

312

257

1,157

1,320

11.9

12.0

66.6

77.9

4.1

3.5

0.7

0.6

18.3

18.2

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

199

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.0

0.9

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

Styrolution ABS India*

Accumulate

537

617

944

1,068

1,223

9.6

9.6

38.1

44.1

14.1

12.2

1.9

1.7

14.5

14.7

0.9

0.7

TAJ GVK

Buy

62

108

389

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

7.9

6.8

1.0

0.9

13.9

14.4

1.6

1.4

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

288

371

443

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

4.5

4.2

0.6

0.5

14.5

13.8

0.2

TTK Healthcare

Accumulate

503

553

391

435

516

6.2

7.1

24.3

33.3

20.7

15.1

3.4

2.9

17.6

20.8

0.7

0.6

Tree House

Neutral

279

1,004

150

192

52.7

52.5

12.8

16.2

21.8

17.2

2.2

1.9

10.0

11.1

6.3

4.8

TVS Srichakra

Buy

184

226

141

1,591

1,739

7.1

7.4

39.4

56.5

4.7

3.3

0.9

0.8

20.6

25.0

0.3

0.3

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

2,328

30,452

11,886

13,491

14.4

14.0

50.9

74.5

45.7

31.3

3.8

3.4

10.6

11.4

2.9

2.5

368

439

747

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

10.3

10.1

1.9

1.6

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Others
United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India*

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 11, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 13, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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