Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian markets are expected to open flat today with a positive bias tracking
positive opening in SGX Nifty which is trading higher by 0.45%. Most of the Asian
markets too are trading in the green.
The US stocks, extending the upward trend seen over the past month, moved
notably higher on Tuesday despite negative sentiment generated by the news that
JP Morgan (JPM) lowering its growth outlook for the Chinese economy. The gains
lifted the Dow and the S&P 500 to new record highs, while the Nasdaq set another
new twelve-year high. Meanwhile, the European markets were weak in early trade
Tuesday, largely due to the smaller than anticipated increase in German investor
confidence. However, the markets reversed direction after investors were
encouraged by the positive performance of the U.S. markets.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.2
31 19,722
Nifty
0.2
15
5,995
MID CAP
0.3
18
6,462
SMALL CAP
0.0
6,117
BSE HC
0.8
68
8,880
BSE PSU
0.5
33
6,798
BANKEX
0.1
18 14,395
AUTO
(0.2)
(23) 11,015
METAL
0.0
8,610
OIL & GAS
0.3
29
8,717
Indian markets posted modest gains on Tuesday after government data showed
India's headline inflation slowed for a third straight month in April, allowing room
for the RBI to extend monetary easing to revive flagging growth. Inflation based on
the wholesale price index slowed to a 41-month low of 4.89% in April from 5.96%
a month ago, with prices of food, manufacturing products, fuel and power all
showing a tendency to decline.
BSE IT
Markets Today
Nikkei
(0.2)
(24) 14,758
Hang Sang
(0.3)
(60) 22,930
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,736 / 5,997 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,818 19,915 / 6,024 6,053 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,736 / 5,997 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,639 19,556 / 5,968 5,941 levels.
Straits Times
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
NIFTY
19,556
5,941
19,639
5,968
19,736
5,997
19,818
6,024
19,915
6,053
News Analysis
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
MFs
2,097
198
1,616
240
481
(42)
7,602
(1,641)
68,759
(10,232)
FII Derivatives (May 14, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
Stock Futures
1,916
1,392
1,592
1,570
324
(178)
15,345
27,286
Gainers / Losers
Eicher Motors
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
3,263
6.7
Amara Raja
265
(5.3)
Reliance Comm
112
5.8
Muthoot Fin
150
(5.1)
Motherson Sumi
209
5.1
Tata Global
141
(3.3)
75
4.5
MMTC
262
(3.0)
151
4.0
Dr Reddys Lab
2,026
(2.7)
Uco Bank
United Phos
www.angelbroking.com
5,965
(Close)
124 15,215
NASDAQ
0.7
24
3,463
FTSE
0.8
54
6,686
0.1
3,433
(1.1)
(25)
2,217
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.3
0.1
$42.9
WIT
(1.3)
(0.1)
$7.8
IBN
0.4
0.2
$46.7
HDB
0.3
0.1
$42.4
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
INFY
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,140
651
Declines
1,194
717
132
88
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (May 13, 2013)
Company
12
(Pts)
0.8
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
0.2
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
Advances / Declines
Inflation softens to 41-month low

Ranbaxy settles the US suit
IVRCL bags orders worth `639cr
Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reports 4QFY2013 results
Result Review: DRL, United Bank, Amara Raja Batteries, HTMedia
Result Preview: United spirits, IRB Infra
Company
Global Indices
BSE
1,671
NSE
8,923
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Inflation softens to 41-month low

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for April 2013 moderated for the third
straight month to 4.89%, a 41-month low as compared to 5.96% in the previous
month and 7.50% in April 2012. The deceleration is broad-based since inflation
across primary articles, fuel and manufactured articles has moderated. Core
inflation softened for the eighth straight month to 2.7% as compared to 3.4% in
the previous month and 5.0% in the corresponding month of the previous year
reflecting the decline in commodity prices on a yoy basis as well as weak pricing
power in manufacturing. We believe that the softening trend in both WPI and CPI
inflation is likely to give the RBI scope for easing the monetary policy rate. We
expect a 25bp repo rate cut in its June policy review.
Worryingly however, the headline inflation for February 2013 has been revised
upwards by 44bp to 7.3% owing to revision across categories primary articles (by
84bp), fuel (by 17bp) and manufactured articles (by 28bp). Earlier, inflation for
January 2013 was also revised similarly by about 70bp to 7.3% from 6.6%
reported earlier and such revisions do not bode well for the inflationary trajectory.
Primary articles weightage 20.1%

Inflation in primary articles moderated to a 15-month low at 5.8% as compared to
7.6% in the previous month and 9.6% in April 2012 owing to deceleration of
inflation in food and non-food articles. Inflation in food articles (at double-digits
for most of FY2013) came in at 6.1% as compared to 8.7% in March 2013. This
moderation can be attributed to the 4.1% decline in inflation for fruits and
vegetables. In particular inflation in vegetables aided by a high base effect
declined by 9.0% as against a steep 61.9% rise in April 2012.
Although inflation in food articles has moderated, it remains above double-digits
at 15.6% for cereals and 10.3% for pulses. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gives
49.7% weightage to the food basket and it moderated to a 13-month low in April
2013 at 9.4% in line with moderation in food inflation.
Fuel and power weightage 14.9%

Inflation in fuel and power decelerated to 8.8% during the month as compared to
10.2% in March 2013 and 12.1% in April 2012. Its contribution to overall
headline inflation came off from 168bp in the previous month to 144bp in April
2013. However, a key to note is that the coal price index is flat since January as it
has not been revised and electricity tariff revision by some states has not yet been
incorporated and these revisions are likely to push up the index going ahead.
Manufactured products weightage 65.0%

Inflation in manufactured products decelerated for the seventh straight month to
3.4% in April 2013 as compared to 4.1% in March 2013 and 5.3% in the
corresponding period of the previous year. Core inflation ie the non-food
manufacturing component of inflation softened further for the eight consecutive
month to 2.7% as compared to 3.4% in the previous month and 5.0% in April 2012.
The deceleration in core inflation can be attributed to decline in commodity prices
on a yoy basis as well as continued weakness in pricing power.
In light of the positive surprises in WPI and CPI inflation and the benign outlook
going ahead for global commodity and crude prices, we see scope for policy
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
easing by the RBI in its June monetary policy review. We expect the RBI to cut the
repo rate by 25bp at its June 17 policy meet. But on the other hand the trade
deficit soared by 72.6% mom during April 2013 and in view of risks from the
current account deficit we expect the RBI to reiterate its cautious stance on policy
easing going forward and focus on monetary transmission.
Ranbaxy settles the US suit

Ranbaxy Labs settled the US suit by pleading guilty to "felony charges" relating to
manufacture and distribution of certain adulterated drugs made at two India units,
the US subsidiary of Ranbaxy today agreed to pay US $ 500mn -- the largest
settlement with a generic medicine maker till date.
Ranbaxy also agreed to pay a criminal fine and forfeiture totaling US $150mn and
to settle civil claims under the False Claims Act and related State laws for US
$350mn. Ranbaxy USA pleaded guilty to three felony counts under Federal Food
Durg and Cosmetics Act (FDCA), and four felony counts of knowingly making
materially false statements to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
With this settlement, the long lawsuit is now over for the company and since the
amount in terms of penalty is same as earlier provided by the company, its
positive for the company both from short and long term perspective.
Thus, with this development, one of the overhangs on the stock is out. However,
we believe that stock will be closely monitoring its operating performance, which
we believe will take some time to improve. As in the latest quarter the company
posted operating margins of ~6-7%, which is much below its peers and hence was
the main reason for the stocks under performance. According to the Management
it will take 3-4 years before margins come in line with its peers. Thus, while
valuations are very attractive for a long term perspective, we believe that the stock
from a near term perspective looks fairly valued, especially given our operating
estimates are still on the higher side then the delivery and hence can pose a cause
of disappointment and hence we remain neutral on the stock.
IVRCL bags orders worth `639cr

IVRCL Ltd said its transportation division has bagged orders worth `445.54cr for
road and drain improvement works in Karnataka, construction and upgradation of
road in Madhya Pradesh and construction of roadbed, station buildings and
passenger amenities for east coast railway. The Building Division secured orders
worth `183.61cr. The works invloves construction of secondary technical school in
Umm Al Quwain in UAE and construction on integrated office building for ISRO in
New Delhi. Also, the company has bagged various orders worth around `10 crore
pertain to various other miscellaneous work. We continue to maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with target price of `35.
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reports 4QFY2013 results

Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reported its 4QFY2013 results. The companys
topline declined by 4.1% yoy to US$2500mn on account of flat sales volumes
coupled with lower aluminium prices. The aluminium shipments in 4QFY2013
stood at 698kt. The EBITDA was also flat yoy at US$235mn and therefore the
company reported a positive PAT of US$59mn compared to a PAT loss of
US$107mn in 4QFY2012. We maintain our Neutral view on Hindalco.
Result Review
Dr Reddys Lab (CMP: `2026/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
DRL posted numbers better than expected. The sales came in at `3,340cr is V/s
`2,409cr, registering a growth of 26%yoy. The growth was mainly driven by PSAI
segment, which grew by 44.6% yoy, while the generic segment grew by 18.2% yoy.
While, all the regions grew at robust growth in PSAI, the generic segment growth
was driven by the USA market, which grew by 30.7%. The company posted an
OPM of 21.8% V/s 19.8% (expected), down from 24.1% in the last corresponding
period. Higher than expected OPMs during the period aided the net profit to come
in at `571cr, V/s expectation of `313cr. Also the net profit was aided by higher
income during the quarter, which came in `163cr, aided by the US $ 22.5mn as
one time settlement done with Nordion Inc., towards the damages sustained by the
Company due to the breach by Nordion of the then existing Laboratory services
agreement for bioequivalence studies. We remain neutral on the stock.
Y/E
March
Sales
(` cr)
OPM
PAT
EPS
(%)
(` cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
11,662
21.0 1,576 92.9
20.8
21.8
4.3
15.5
3.3
FY2015E
13,101
20.8 1,763 103.9
19.6
19.5
3.6
13.9
2.9
United Bank- (CMP: `58/ TP: under review)

United Banks 4QFY2013 numbers disappointed on operating as well as on asset
quality front. On back of 6.6% yoy increase in operating expense, operating profit
for bank increased by 6.9% yoy to `511cr. NII de- grew 8.9% yoy to `564cr. On
asset quality front, gross and net NPAs increased by 2.1% and 39.1% respectively
sequentially. Hence, higher provisioning by 174.4% yoy at `759cr and tax write
back of `279cr, as against tax expense of `22cr in 4QFY13, led the bank to report
PAT de-growth of 79.1% yoy at `31cr. The stock is currently under review.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
3,597
2.6
677
16.0 130.3
0.6
12.5
3.7
0.4
FY2015E
4,008
2.7
860
20.8 150.0
0.7
14.7
2.8
0.4
March
Amara Raja Batteries (CMP: `265/ TP: `285/ Upside: 8%)

Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) registered weak results for 4QFY2013 on account of
contraction in operating margins (down 209bp qoq) primarily due to raw-material
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
cost pressures. Additionally, provisioning of `8cr towards impairment in asset

value and an additional depreciation charge of `5cr due to revision in estimated
useful life of certain assets also impacted the bottom-line. Top-line posted a robust
growth of 19.4% yoy (5.7% qoq) to `804cr, broadly in-line with our estimates, led
by strong volume growth in the four-wheeler and two-wheeler battery segments.
The industrial battery segment too registered a strong revenue growth mainly
driven by the replacement demand in the telecom battery segment. On the
operating front, margins deteriorated by 209bp on a sequential basis and stood at
13.9% as against our expectations of 14.5%, largely due to a 272bp qoq increase
in raw-material expenditure as a percentage of sales. Led by weak operating
performance, an impairment charge of `8cr and an additional depreciation
expense of `5cr, net profit declined 26.6% qoq to `59cr, which was lower than our
estimates of `76cr. At `265 the stock is trading at 13x FY2015 earnings. We
recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `285.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
3,418
14.5
FY2015E
3,892
14.3
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
317 18.6
348 20.4
26.7
14.3
3.4
8.8
1.3
23.8
13.0
2.8
7.7
1.1
(` cr)
HTMedia (CMP: `99/TP: Under review)

For 4QFY2013, HT Medias top-line performance was below our expectations,
growing by tepid 1.5% yoy to `501cr. Although circulation revenue continues its
double digit growth for third consecutive quarter, growing by robust 19% yoy to
`57cr (largely due to cover price hike), sluggish growth in advertising revenue (up
by only 1.1% yoy to `378cr) continues to remain a drag on top-line performance.
Although yoy fall in newsprint costs and other expenses aided HT Media to register
OPM expansion of 456bp yoy to 14.3%, it was still ~100bp lower than our
expectation due to 160bp yoy increase in staff cost as a percentage of sales.
Consequently, profit came in below our expectations at `40cr (however, up 82.0%
yoy aided by low base effect). At the current market price, HTMedia is trading at
10.9x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `9.1. We maintain Accumulate on the stock
with target price under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
PAT EPS
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
2,205
15.1
188
8.0
11.2
12.4
1.3
5.3
0.8
FY2015E
2,380
15.6
213
9.1
11.4
10.9
1.2
4.3
0.7
Result Preview
United Spirits (CMP: `2,293/TP:-/Upside:-)
United Spirits is expected to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the
standalone top-line to grow by 15.0% yoy to `2,142cr. OPM is expected to
increase by 205bp yoy to 11.5%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 666% yoy
to `77cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
11,886
14.4
740 50.9
10.6
45.0
3.7
21.8
3.1
FY2015E
13,491
14.0 1,082 74.5
11.4
30.8
3.3
19.5
2.7
Note: Consolidated financials are furnished in the table
IRB Infra (CMP: `117 / TP: `167 / Upside: 43%)

IRB is expected to post a good performance on quarterly basis. We expect a 27.1%
yoy growth in the engineering and construction (E&C) segment to Rs794cr. This
would come on back of healthy execution pace in under-construction buildoperate transfer (BOT) projects. On the BOT front, we expect a revenue of Rs310cr
for 4QFY2013, leading to an overall top-line growth of 30.2% to Rs1,104cr. We
expect blended EBITDA margin at 44.0%, a decline of 91bp yoy. Depreciation for
the quarter is expected to jump 13.3% yoy, owing to completion of the SuratDahisar project. We project net profit before tax and after tax (post minority
interest) at Rs248cr and Rs187cr, respectively, after factoring a blended tax rate of
25% for the quarter. We recommend Buy on the stock with target price of `167.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM PAT

(` cr) (%) (` cr)
EPS
(`)
ROE
(%)
P/E
(x)
P/BV EV/EBITDAEV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
4,152
44.4
564
17.0
16.2
6.9
1.1
7.8
3.5
FY2015E
4,624
45.0
573
17.2
14.6
6.8
0.9
7.9
3.5
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Adani Ports & SEZ (15/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
839
617
36
868
(3)
EBITDA
589
458
29
666
(11)
EBITDA margin (%)
70.2
74.1
Net profit
379
339
12
415
(9)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,114
1,863
13
2,174
(3)
EBITDA
253
195
30
275
(8)
EBITDA margin (%)
12.0
10.5
65
10
554
81
(19)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
4,779
4,516
5,307
(10)
EBITDA
888
921
(3)
1,012
(12)
EBITDA margin (%)
18.6
20.4
Net profit
718
772
76.7
United Spirits (15/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
Net profit
12.6
Bajaj Auto (16/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
19.1
(7)
819
(12)
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
ITC (17/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
8,053
6,361
27
7,627
EBITDA
2,691
2,263
19
2,858
(6)
33.4
35.6
1,899
1,614
EBITDA margin (%)

Net profit
37.5
18
2,052
(7)
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Adani Enterprise Consolidated (20/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
11,330
10,594
13,610
(17)
1,644
1,086
51
2,038
(19)
EBITDA margin (%)
14.5
10.2
Net profit
263
310
Net sales
EBITDA
15.0
(15)
416
(37)
Coal India Consolidated (20/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
19,478
19,419
17,325
12
5,591
3,786
48
4,288
30
28.7
19.5
4,988
4,008
24
4,395
13
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
802
708
13
533
50
EBITDA
303
286
182
66
EBITDA margin (%)
37.8
40.4
Net profit
225
215
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
24.8
Divi's Laboratories (20/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
34.1
5
144
Economic and Political News
Govt. expects drop in gold imports by next month

India's mineral output up in March, valued at Rs 20,475 cr
Show-cause notices to 32 coal block allottees on cards
Corporate News
BHEL to set up a power equipment fabrication plant in Maharashtra

Suzlons unit bags 90 million Euro order
Piramal Enterprises gets US nod for anti-diabetes molecule
Apollo Tyres drops $150 mn via QIB plan
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
56
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 15, 2013
J & K Bank, Mundra Port, United Spirits, IRB Infra, Orchid Chemicals, Hitachi
May 16, 2013
Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam, Reliance Capital, D B Corp
May 17, 2013
ITC, Sun TV Network, Motherson Sumi, NIIT
May 18, 2013

May 19, 2013
May 20, 2013
Coal India, Adani Enterp., India Cements
May 21, 2013
Tech Mahindra
May 22, 2013
Larsen & Toubro, Thermax, LMW, Nagarjuna Const., Subros
May 23, 2013
BHEL, Indraprasth Gas
May 24, 2013
Britannia
May 25, 2013
MOIL, Force Motors
May 26, 2013

May 27, 2013
Tata Chemicals, Bajaj Electrical, GIPCL, TTK Healthcare
May 28, 2013
GAIL, Hindalco, Rural Elec.Corp., Colgate, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma, PVR
May 29, 2013
BPCL, Anant Raj
May 30, 2013
M&M, Tata Power Co., Ipca labs, Page Industries, Madras Cements
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
May 15, 2013
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2:00PM
UK
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
6:00PM
US
6:00PM
6:00PM
May 21, 2013
May 22, 2013
May 23, 2013
May 16, 2013
1Q P
0.10
--
% Change
Apr
(7.00)
--
% Change
1Q A
(0.60)
--
% Change
Apr
(0.60)
(0.60)
Apr
0.41
(0.10)
Apr F
1.70
--
Housing Starts
Thousands
Apr
1,036.00
980.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Apr
907.00
940.00
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Apr
(0.20)
(0.20)
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Apr
2.80
--
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Apr
4.92
--
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
May A
49.60
--
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
2:00PM
UK
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Jobless claims change
GDP (YoY)
Value
May A
48.10
--
% Change
1Q P
0.60
--
Value
May A
(22.30)
--
Thousands
Apr
417.00
--
S.A./ 1985=100
May
68.10
--
7:30PM
US
New home sales
May 28, 2013
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
May 29, 2013
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
May
4.00
--
May 30, 2013
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
1Q S
2.50
--
May 31, 2013
11:00AM
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
1Q
4.50
--
June 1, 2013
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
May
50.60
--
June 3, 2013
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
May
49.80
--
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.2
9.2
6.0
4.0
(0.1)
(1.3)
Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.5
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.6
Nov-12
(4.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.6
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
Apr-12
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
0.5
(2.0)
8.0
2.5
2.4
2.0
Oct-12
4.5
2QFY10
2.5
2.0
5.3 5.5 5.3
Sep-12
6.0
Aug-12
6.5
5.7
Mar-13
7.5
Jul-12
7.6
7.5
8.2
Jun-12
8.5
May-12
9.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.3
56.0
6.8
6.0
4.9
54.0
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Feb-12
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
50.0
May-12
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
8.4
8.0
1QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
15.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
7.50
8.00
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
(15.0)
Apr-12
3.00
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
0.0
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
135
2,621
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
17.5
15.2
3.6
3.1
22.2
21.9
1.5
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
151
232
6,686
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
7.4
6.5
1.2
1.1
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
265
285
4,530
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.3
18.6
20.4
14.3
13.0
3.4
2.8
26.7
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Buy
89
104
4,461
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
6.9
5.9
1.1
1.0
17.5
17.3
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
22
25
5,907
13,778
16,132
7.5
8.6
0.9
2.1
23.8
10.8
1.8
1.7
5.5
11.7
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
268
405
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
15.5
9.9
1.5
1.3
9.5
14.0
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,784
2,014
51,614
22,552
25,498
18.6
18.6
117.9
134.3
15.1
13.3
5.5
4.4
40.2
36.6
1.9
1.6
Bharat Forge
Neutral
229
5,340
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.8
13.3
2.1
1.9
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.9
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,016
28,311
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
24.1
20.6
4.3
3.7
18.0
17.9
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
117
170
400
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.9
2.4
0.5
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
137
150
11,637
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
17.5
15.0
3.0
2.6
18.1
18.2
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,407
2,338
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
15.9
12.9
2.3
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,672
1,819
33,392
25,274
27,658
14.1
13.7
110.2
139.9
15.2
12.0
5.5
4.4
39.8
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
117
154
480
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
3.1
2.7
0.5
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
950
1,006
58,356
44,550
50,260
11.4
11.7
59.6
68.3
16.0
13.9
3.3
2.8
22.3
21.6
1.1
0.9
Maruti
Accumulate
1,704
1,847
51,465
48,455
55,723
11.2
10.9
107.8
123.2
15.8
13.8
2.4
2.1
16.2
16.0
0.9
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
209
222
12,266
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
16.7
14.1
4.1
3.3
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Subros
Buy
26
30
155
1,479
1,685
10.0
9.9
5.5
7.5
4.7
3.5
0.5
0.5
11.1
13.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
301
324
80,099 206,341 227,695
12.8
13.5
32.3
39.0
9.3
7.7
2.0
1.6
23.1
23.2
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Neutral
39
1,834
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
7.8
6.7
1.3
1.2
18.1
18.5
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Reduce
516
461
10,934
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
44.8
30.5
4.1
3.9
9.3
13.1
1.3
1.1
BGR Energy
Neutral
193
1,391
4,114
4,886
11.4
10.7
24.9
28.0
7.7
6.9
1.0
0.9
25.2
22.6
0.6
0.6
BHEL
Neutral
189
46,247
43,757
40,934
17.3
16.9
20.9
19.0
9.1
10.0
2.0
1.8
23.7
18.8
0.9
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
167
230
1,498
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
17.9
14.2
2.9
2.5
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
94
117
6,046
13,790
15,095
6.4
7.4
6.9
9.4
13.7
10.1
1.5
1.4
11.7
14.5
0.5
0.4
Jyoti Structures
Buy
29
34
241
3,074
3,355
9.0
8.8
8.7
10.2
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.3
10.4
11.1
0.3
0.2
KEC International
Buy
47
63
1,206
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
7.7
5.5
1.0
0.9
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
575
6,852
5,931
6,592
9.6
9.7
31.0
34.3
18.6
16.8
3.2
2.8
18.6
17.9
1.0
0.9
1,206
1,361
22,636
11,979
13,254
19.7
21.3
77.1
91.4
15.6
13.2
2.8
2.5
18.7
20.0
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
186
28,717
10,232
11,762
23.5
24.5
10.3
12.2
18.1
15.3
3.0
2.7
17.2
18.6
2.3
1.9
India Cements
Neutral
87
2,676
4,777
5,276
17.3
17.1
8.8
10.9
9.9
8.0
0.7
0.7
7.5
8.8
0.9
0.8
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
100
143
1,180
2,313
2,728
19.8
20.7
16.6
23.1
6.1
4.3
0.8
0.7
13.6
16.5
1.1
0.8
Madras Cements
Neutral
246
5,843
4,293
4,855
27.4
28.6
21.8
28.2
11.3
8.7
2.0
1.7
19.6
21.3
1.8
1.5
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,639
16,161
6,540
7,452
27.4
26.6
319.7
369.9
14.5
12.5
3.6
2.9
27.5
25.4
1.8
1.4
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,970
54,012
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
18.6
16.4
3.1
2.7
17.7
17.3
2.5
2.2
222
272
1,168
2,013
2,293
22.5
22.5
26.0
24.4
8.5
9.1
0.9
0.9
11.7
9.9
2.2
2.0
12
213
2,281
2,492
5.9
6.9
0.7
2.0
16.9
5.7
0.4
0.4
2.3
6.5
0.4
0.3
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
117
167
3,887
4,152
4,624
44.4
45.0
17.0
17.2
6.9
6.8
1.1
0.9
16.2
14.6
3.3
3.4
ITNL
Buy
176
230
3,417
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.9
5.5
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.2
2.6
2.6
IVRCL Infra
Buy
19
35
592
6,287
6,836
8.5
8.5
2.3
3.0
8.2
6.3
0.3
0.3
3.4
4.2
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
73
90
16,233
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
28.9
25.7
1.2
1.1
4.2
4.7
2.9
2.8
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,522
1,795
93,710
69,586
79,247
11.2
11.1
75.1
84.9
20.3
17.9
2.9
2.5
15.2
15.0
1.5
1.4
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
34
45
875
6,576
7,264
8.2
8.3
4.1
4.8
8.3
7.2
0.3
0.3
4.2
4.7
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
54
1,792
1,338
1,542
10.2
10.2
3.0
4.8
18.2
11.4
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.2
5.6
5.3
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
114
153
1,727
2,511
2,736
10.6
10.6
7.3
7.8
15.8
14.7
2.0
1.8
13.3
12.7
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
111
164
549
6,824
7,563
9.2
9.4
18.0
23.4
6.2
4.8
0.4
0.4
6.9
8.3
0.5
0.4
Unity Infra
Buy
30
45
225
2,455
2,734
13.4
13.0
14.6
14.9
2.1
2.0
0.2
0.2
12.3
11.3
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Buy
122
142
6,083
7,137
7,907
2.9
2.8
32.3
36.0
3.8
3.4
0.5
0.5
14.2
14.2
Andhra Bank
Neutral
91
5,087
5,285
5,937
3.0
2.9
21.2
23.4
4.3
3.9
0.6
0.6
13.4
13.4
Axis Bank
Buy
1,467
1,714
68,735
19,055
22,710
3.3
3.2
130.7
152.3
11.2
9.6
1.8
1.6
17.2
17.6
Bank of Baroda
Buy
703
815
29,616
16,318
18,682
2.4
2.4
121.4
144.6
5.8
4.9
0.8
0.7
15.2
16.0
Bank of India
Accumulate
322
360
19,179
14,284
16,295
2.3
2.3
55.9
68.4
5.8
4.7
0.8
0.7
13.9
15.2
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
57
3,774
4,289
4,670
2.9
2.8
11.6
13.1
4.9
4.4
0.7
0.6
15.7
15.6
Canara Bank
Accumulate
410
461
18,163
11,673
13,208
2.3
2.3
74.8
85.8
5.5
4.8
0.8
0.7
13.7
14.1
Central Bank
Accumulate
69
74
7,249
8,079
9,086
2.6
2.6
14.9
18.0
4.7
3.9
0.7
0.6
12.2
13.3
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
404
453
6,179
5,397
5,973
2.2
2.2
96.3
105.9
4.2
3.8
0.6
0.5
14.6
14.4
Dena Bank
Neutral
91
3,186
3,334
3,700
2.7
2.7
23.6
26.5
3.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
15.5
15.3
Federal Bank
Neutral
457
7,817
2,916
3,389
3.3
3.3
50.1
59.4
9.1
7.7
1.1
1.0
12.8
13.7
Financials
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Neutral
869
134,442
8,928
10,684
3.7
3.7
38.4
45.3
22.7
19.2
4.9
4.3
32.5
32.4
HDFC Bank
Neutral
689
164,097
27,682
33,916
4.6
4.6
35.3
42.7
19.5
16.2
3.8
3.2
21.3
21.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,148
1,357
132,449
25,705
30,330
3.1
3.2
83.9
96.3
13.7
11.9
1.8
1.7
15.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Neutral
87
11,608
9,137
10,041
1.9
2.0
17.8
18.8
4.9
4.6
0.6
0.5
11.7
11.3
Indian Bank
Buy
159
186
6,840
6,276
6,968
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.3
4.2
3.8
0.6
0.5
15.2
14.9
IOB
Neutral
62
5,729
8,205
9,048
2.6
2.5
16.4
20.3
3.8
3.1
0.5
0.4
11.6
13.1
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,332
6,456
3,032
3,118
3.8
3.5
218.1
200.9
6.1
6.6
1.1
1.0
19.9
16.0
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
247
281
12,445
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
9.7
8.4
1.7
1.5
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
258
282
7,533
6,791
7,478
2.7
2.7
56.7
63.4
4.6
4.1
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.1
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
766
945
27,062
21,161
24,166
3.3
3.3
153.4
176.4
5.0
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.1
16.3
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Accumulate
Syndicate Bank
24
3,233
1,826
2,081
3.0
2.9
4.0
4.5
6.0
5.4
1.0
0.9
17.6
17.1
2,291
2,572
156,733
67,091
76,746
3.2
3.1
241.2
280.4
9.5
8.2
1.5
1.3
16.5
17.0
Neutral
124
7,491
7,340
8,212
2.9
2.8
26.4
28.7
4.7
4.3
0.7
0.6
15.8
15.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
75
5,645
6,126
6,665
2.6
2.5
12.2
14.4
6.2
5.2
0.9
0.8
11.8
12.6
Union Bank
Accumulate
231
264
13,780
11,226
12,769
2.7
2.7
41.0
47.8
5.6
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.8
15.4
United Bank
Accumulate
58
64
2,183
3,597
4,008
2.6
2.7
16.0
20.8
3.7
2.8
0.5
0.4
12.5
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
52
2,579
2,600
2,946
2.0
2.1
9.7
11.0
5.4
4.8
0.6
0.6
11.4
11.7
Yes Bank
Neutral
508
18,219
4,390
5,411
2.8
2.8
41.6
47.9
12.2
10.6
2.6
2.2
23.2
22.1
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,742
45,489
13,319
15,805
15.7
15.7
143.8
170.2
33.0
27.9
10.3
8.1
35.1
32.7
3.3
2.8
Britannia
Neutral
564
6,749
6,417
7,446
5.1
5.5
20.3
25.2
27.9
22.4
9.5
7.5
37.4
37.3
1.0
0.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,549
21,067
3,588
4,130
21.1
21.6
44.7
51.9
34.6
29.9
31.2
23.2
100.0
89.1
5.7
4.9
Dabur India
Neutral
162
28,183
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
30.1
25.7
11.7
9.1
41.5
40.1
3.9
3.3
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,236
17,813
3,617
4,260
16.1
16.4
120.6
146.4
35.1
28.9
10.8
8.7
33.8
33.4
4.6
3.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
851
28,964
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
33.9
28.7
7.3
6.1
24.9
24.2
3.9
3.3
HUL
Neutral
584
126,202
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
34.2
31.7
32.8
23.8
113.4
87.0
4.2
3.6
ITC
Neutral
336
265,423
33,506
39,067
36.8
37.0
11.1
13.0
30.3
25.9
9.8
8.0
35.5
34.1
7.6
6.5
Marico
Neutral
214
13,824
5,352
6,204
14.0
14.0
7.9
9.8
27.1
21.9
5.6
4.5
22.8
22.9
2.6
2.1
Nestle*
Neutral
4,878
47,031
9,739
11,307
21.5
22.2
131.6
159.9
37.1
30.5
18.7
13.4
58.8
69.5
4.7
4.0
Tata Global
Neutral
141
8,719
7,998
8,798
9.7
9.8
7.9
8.7
17.9
16.2
2.2
2.1
9.6
9.8
1.0
0.9
FMCG
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
746
863
51,951
28,633
32,216
21.5
20.7
57.3
61.7
13.0
12.1
3.1
2.6
24.0
21.5
1.6
1.4
Hexaware*
Buy
81
102
2,405
2,091
2,289
19.0
18.8
10.6
11.3
7.6
7.1
1.7
1.5
22.8
21.7
1.0
0.9
Infosys
Neutral
2,352
135,037
43,338
47,244
27.5
27.7
169.4
182.6
13.9
12.9
2.9
2.5
20.8
19.3
2.5
2.1
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
167
185
1,869
1,956
2,174
17.9
17.7
20.4
21.9
8.2
7.7
1.2
1.1
14.7
13.7
0.6
0.4
KPIT Cummins
Buy
102
135
1,963
2,513
2,819
16.1
15.5
12.6
14.0
8.1
7.3
1.4
1.2
17.9
16.6
0.7
0.6
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
110
143
12,915
8,456
9,385
19.3
19.1
10.6
11.9
10.4
9.2
2.3
1.9
22.4
20.1
1.1
0.9
Mindtree
Accumulate
848
920
3,524
2,599
2,871
19.4
19.2
85.2
92.3
10.0
9.2
2.1
1.7
21.4
18.9
1.1
0.9
Mphasis&
Reduce
431
395
9,051
6,096
6,646
17.6
17.4
38.1
41.6
11.3
10.4
1.6
1.4
14.2
13.7
1.0
0.8
NIIT
Buy
23
30
376
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
5.3
4.2
0.6
0.5
10.3
12.0
0.1
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
527
593
2,107
1,445
1,617
25.2
25.0
55.3
59.3
9.5
8.9
1.7
1.5
18.2
16.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Accumulate
1,458
1,585
285,304
71,833
81,893
28.4
28.0
78.5
88.0
18.6
16.6
5.6
4.6
30.2
27.9
3.7
3.2
Tech Mahindra
Buy
959
1,230
12,307
7,699
8,315
19.3
18.1
107.0
115.0
9.0
8.3
1.9
1.6
21.7
19.1
1.6
1.4
Wipro
Accumulate
348
385
85,700
40,173
43,697
20.4
20.6
26.2
28.5
13.3
12.2
2.6
2.3
19.7
18.4
1.6
1.4
D B Corp
Buy
235
272
4,309
1,787
1,974
25.4
26.4
14.5
16.9
16.2
13.9
3.4
2.9
22.4
22.2
2.3
2.0
HT Media
Buy
99
117
2,331
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.0
9.1
12.4
11.0
1.3
1.2
11.2
11.4
0.6
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
93
121
3,083
1,698
1,908
23.9
24.5
7.4
8.4
12.6
11.1
3.2
2.8
26.7
26.8
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
373
1,476
1,343
1,521
18.8
18.9
18.3
22.9
20.3
16.3
1.9
2.1
10.6
12.3
1.1
1.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
424
16,695
2,293
2,571
68.7
68.7
19.3
22.7
21.9
18.7
5.4
4.7
26.1
27.3
6.8
5.8
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
460
10,410
13,794
17,335
30.7
34.8
48.9
83.6
9.4
5.5
1.0
0.9
11.2
16.7
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Buy
295
345
186,301
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.4
9.6
2.9
2.5
37.6
36.2
1.8
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
26
554
2,074
2,176
10.4
11.3
1.9
2.3
8.9
7.5
0.1
0.1
3.7
4.3
0.5
0.2
GMDC
Buy
148
213
4,692
1,944
2,317
49.9
51.7
20.8
25.6
7.1
5.8
1.6
1.3
24.3
24.6
2.0
1.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
117
145
49,584
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
7.3
6.7
1.3
1.1
19.4
18.4
1.7
1.2
Hindalco
Neutral
105
20,180
88,987
94,163
9.2
9.7
13.8
15.9
7.6
6.6
0.6
0.5
7.6
8.1
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
679
15,142
39,524
42,064
17.1
16.9
71.8
86.3
9.5
7.9
0.8
0.7
8.6
9.6
0.7
0.6
MOIL
Accumulate
221
243
3,706
954
1,062
45.5
47.4
26.1
29.1
8.5
7.6
1.2
1.1
15.1
15.2
1.4
1.1
Monnet Ispat
Buy
190
291
1,211
2,883
3,181
21.7
23.6
40.3
57.7
4.7
3.3
0.4
0.4
10.1
13.0
1.3
1.1
Nalco
Neutral
36
9,265
8,187
8,416
14.5
14.7
3.2
3.3
11.2
11.0
0.8
0.7
6.8
6.7
0.6
0.6
NMDC
Buy
127
179
50,173
10,329
12,540
73.8
75.0
16.6
19.0
7.6
6.7
1.5
1.3
20.6
20.2
2.7
2.1
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
62
25,586
53,685
64,183
9.3
12.2
5.5
8.3
11.3
7.5
0.6
0.6
5.4
7.7
0.8
0.8
Sesa Goa
Neutral
160
13,940
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.3
5.4
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.5
3.7
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
95
100
31,909
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
5.2
4.7
0.6
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.7
0.6
Tata Steel
Buy
304
430
29,515 141,775 151,672
10.5
11.4
35.3
51.7
8.6
5.9
0.6
0.6
7.6
10.3
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Buy
104
153
372
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.3
2.9
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
37
48
494
2,668
2,834
10.0
10.1
4.6
5.2
7.9
7.1
0.2
0.2
3.2
3.4
0.5
0.5
Buy
86
118
281
2,425
2,552
13.7
14.8
33.5
45.3
2.6
1.9
0.3
0.2
11.2
13.1
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Buy
296
345
56,630
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.6
6.0
0.9
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.1
1.7
GAIL
Neutral
337
42,792
55,815
63,013
15.3
15.2
35.9
41.5
9.4
8.1
1.5
1.3
17.0
17.1
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
327
354
279,337 157,962 175,367
35.1
36.2
34.3
39.3
9.5
8.3
1.6
1.5
18.2
18.6
1.5
1.3
Reliance Industries
Neutral
798
257,603 380,031 407,721
9.9
69.3
69.3
78.0
11.5
10.2
1.2
1.0
11.5
11.7
0.6
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
252
3,232
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
10.6
9.8
3.0
2.6
29.6
28.2
0.7
0.7
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
290
4,059
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.6
30.4
10.9
9.5
2.3
1.9
22.6
21.7
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
143
167
10,755
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
9.6
8.6
2.0
1.7
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
63
3,534
1,079
983
91.8
91.9
8.8
7.8
7.2
8.0
1.2
1.1
17.8
14.1
3.0
3.2
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
123
139
2,315
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
11.5
8.8
3.6
2.7
35.0
34.7
1.4
1.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
190
264
5,534
6,279
7,033
16.0
16.0
15.2
19.2
12.5
9.9
1.7
1.4
19.2
18.0
1.4
1.2
Aventis*
Neutral
2,500
5,758
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
27.1
25.2
3.8
3.8
15.7
14.8
3.0
2.5
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
832
962
17,035
7,386
8,863
18.0
18.0
39.5
48.1
21.1
17.3
4.8
3.9
24.8
24.7
2.6
2.1
Cipla
Buy
399
463
31,996
9,130
10,543
24.8
23.0
21.6
23.2
18.5
17.2
3.0
2.6
17.6
16.2
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,026
34,388
11,662
13,101
21.0
20.8
92.9
103.9
21.8
19.5
4.2
3.5
20.8
19.6
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
75
206
603
1,536
1,739
20.2
20.9
15.4
20.6
4.9
3.6
0.5
0.5
11.6
13.7
1.0
0.8
2,324
19,686
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
30.3
27.9
9.1
8.3
31.1
31.0
6.0
5.4
Buy
64
90
590
784
902
15.2
15.2
7.8
9.0
8.2
7.1
1.2
1.1
15.6
15.8
1.0
0.8
Ipca labs
Buy
545
676
6,871
3,474
4,168
21.0
21.0
37.3
45.1
14.6
12.1
3.5
2.7
26.4
25.3
2.1
1.8
Lupin
Buy
752
877
33,674
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
21.6
18.0
5.1
4.0
26.2
24.8
2.9
2.4
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
456
19,272
11,400
12,060
10.5
10.5
17.5
22.5
26.0
20.2
4.2
3.6
17.0
19.1
1.6
1.5
Sun Pharma
Neutral
964
99,640
12,563
14,698
42.6
42.6
29.8
35.5
32.3
27.2
5.7
4.8
19.2
19.3
7.3
6.1
72
78
1,089
1,535
1,570
31.9
31.6
13.1
14.1
5.5
5.1
0.7
0.6
12.4
12.2
1.0
0.8
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Accumulate
154
163
126,815
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
11.5
10.6
1.4
1.3
12.8
12.7
2.4
2.2
DLF
Buy
230
288
39,122
9,699
12,010
37.0
36.9
6.0
8.4
38.6
27.4
1.4
1.4
3.8
5.1
5.4
4.5
MLIFE
Accumulate
399
446
1,631
888
1,002
26.7
25.9
36.3
40.6
11.0
9.8
1.2
1.1
10.8
11.0
2.1
1.8
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
317
120,458
86,933
96,121
30.2
31.2
10.3
15.7
30.9
20.3
2.2
2.0
7.0
9.7
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
129
42,894
24,959
27,232
27.1
27.5
3.7
4.7
34.8
27.5
2.8
2.6
8.1
9.2
2.1
1.9
Rcom
Neutral
112
23,086
22,221
24,253
32.0
32.2
4.3
6.4
25.8
17.4
0.6
0.6
2.4
3.4
2.6
2.2
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
20.1
17.2
4.0
3.4
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,430
1,659
3,039
1,863
2,081
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
173
237
1,730
3,929
4,480
7.4
7.7
15.5
19.7
11.2
8.8
1.9
1.6
17.4
18.7
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
455
562
576
630
795
14.4
13.6
42.8
51.1
10.7
8.9
2.5
2.0
26.6
25.2
0.9
0.7
Cravatex
Buy
430
566
111
308
351
7.0
7.0
39.6
47.2
10.9
9.1
2.4
1.9
21.8
21.0
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
56
68
857
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.6
5.0
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.3
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
400
570
521
2,299
2,621
4.7
4.9
46.3
57.0
8.6
7.0
0.4
0.4
5.0
5.8
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Buy
291
352
670
1,453
1,560
9.4
9.8
38.4
41.4
7.6
7.0
1.6
1.4
22.9
20.8
0.3
0.2
Hitachi
Buy
153
177
415
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
11.1
8.6
1.6
1.3
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation* Sell
2,427
2,146
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.6
18.3
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
IFB Agro
Buy
170
198
153
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.8
4.3
0.8
0.7
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
180
234
207
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
9.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
4.9
6.3
0.6
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
181
2,919
979
1,164
14.9
15.1
6.0
7.7
30.1
23.5
3.7
3.4
12.9
15.1
3.1
2.6
MRF
Neutral
14,813
6,282
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0
8.3
8.2
1.7
1.4
23.5
19.2
0.6
0.6
Page Industries
Reduce
4,040
3,637
4,507
1,047
1,281
19.6
19.8
127.3
158.1
31.7
25.6
15.2
11.0
54.9
50.0
4.4
3.6
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
604
736
725
1,148
1,360
11.1
11.5
45.4
61.3
13.3
9.9
2.7
2.1
22.6
24.3
0.8
0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
263
312
246
1,157
1,320
11.9
12.0
66.6
77.9
3.9
3.4
0.7
0.6
18.3
18.2
0.5
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
522
617
917
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
13.7
11.8
1.9
1.6
14.5
14.7
0.9
0.7
TAJ GVK
Buy
63
108
392
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.9
6.9
1.1
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.4
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
286
371
440
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.4
4.1
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
TTK Healthcare
Accumulate
502
553
390
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
20.7
15.1
3.4
2.9
17.6
20.8
0.7
0.6
Tree House
Neutral
266
957
150
192
52.7
52.5
12.8
16.2
20.7
16.4
2.1
1.8
10.0
11.1
6.0
4.5
TVS Srichakra
Buy
174
226
133
1,591
1,739
7.1
7.4
39.4
56.5
4.4
3.1
0.9
0.7
20.6
25.0
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
2,293
29,986
11,886
13,491
14.4
14.0
50.9
74.5
45.0
30.8
3.7
3.3
10.6
11.4
2.8
2.5
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
370
439
752
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.4
10.1
1.9
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Others
Vesuvius India*
Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 14, 2013
Market Outlook
May 15, 2013

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

May 15, 2013

OIL & GAS

FII Derivatives (May 14, 2013)

Net Inflows (May 13, 2013)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Inflation softens to 41-month low

Inflation softens to 41-month low

Primary articles weightage 20.1%

Fuel and power weightage 14.9%

Manufactured products weightage 65.0%

Ranbaxy settles the US suit

IVRCL bags orders worth `639cr

Hindalcos subsidiary Novelis reports 4QFY2013 results

21.0 1,576 92.9

20.8 1,763 103.9

United Bank- (CMP: `58/ TP: under review)

Amara Raja Batteries (CMP: `265/ TP: `285/ Upside: 8%)

cost pressures. Additionally, provisioning of `8cr towards impairment in asset

HTMedia (CMP: `99/TP: Under review)

14.0 1,082 74.5

Note: Consolidated financials are furnished in the table

IRB Infra (CMP: `117 / TP: `167 / Upside: 43%)

Sales OPM PAT

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

United Spirits (15/05/2013)

Bajaj Auto (16/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Adani Enterprise Consolidated (20/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Coal India Consolidated (20/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Divi's Laboratories (20/05/2013)

Economic and Political News

Govt. expects drop in gold imports by next month

BHEL to set up a power equipment fabrication plant in Maharashtra

May 15, 2013

May 16, 2013

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam, Reliance Capital, D B Corp

May 17, 2013

ITC, Sun TV Network, Motherson Sumi, NIIT

May 18, 2013

Coal India, Adani Enterp., India Cements

May 21, 2013

May 22, 2013

Larsen & Toubro, Thermax, LMW, Nagarjuna Const., Subros

May 23, 2013

BHEL, Indraprasth Gas

May 24, 2013

May 25, 2013

MOIL, Force Motors

May 26, 2013

Tata Chemicals, Bajaj Electrical, GIPCL, TTK Healthcare

May 28, 2013

May 29, 2013

BPCL, Anant Raj

May 30, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description