Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
16 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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16 May 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
400.90
270.90
400.90
Neutral
Buy
Target
588
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
293.30
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
358
0.66
COBHAM
280.10
190.10
280.10
Neutral
Buy
310
0.82
MEGGITT
519.00
364.30
521.50
Neutral
Sell
448
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1225.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1172
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1315.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1130
0.71
1747.00
1424.00
1747.00
Neutral
Neutral
1663
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
292.40
173.60
292.40
Neutral
Neutral
278
2.02
INCHCAPE
526.50
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
520
1.48
LOOKERS
100.00
56.50
102.00
Neutral
Buy
110
1.23
23.75
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
318.65
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-802
1.94
754.40
503.20
754.40
Neutral
Buy
943
1.17
59.37
25.29
59.37
Sell
Sell
1.89
307.00
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-156
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1577.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3216
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
565.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
606
0.55
DIAGEO
2059.50
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1835
0.55
SABMILLER
3657.00
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4146
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
306.90
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
679
1.23
CARCLO
374.25
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Buy
426
0.73
2580.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2068
1.04
247.10
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
353
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2649.00
2080.27
2649.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12748
1.45
VICTREX
1631.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1450
1.14
SYNTHOMER
225.00
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
215
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
193.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
393
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
88.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
227.80
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
943
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
329.10
114.00
329.10
Neutral
Buy
449
1.58
BELLWAY
1311.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1833
1.15
2170.00
1180.00
2170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3297
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
190.50
115.50
190.50
Sell
Strong Buy
340
0.83
753.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
546
1.20
CARILLION
255.00
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
751
1.12
CLARKE (T)
54.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
0.82
279.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
551
0.57
1410.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
831
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
983.50
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1610
1.01
KELLER
934.00
348.25
934.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2046
1.26
1206.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3225
0.97
70.50
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
211
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
124.50
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
280
551.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3241
0.87
16.00
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1147.00
496.69
1147.00
Sell
Buy
1391
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
218.90
107.30
218.90
Neutral
Buy
277
1.09
SIG
172.60
82.30
172.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
1.79
2.00
2.00
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
96.95
40.28
96.95
Neutral
Buy
124
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1483.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2484
2.01
WOLSELEY
3379.00
2121.32
3379.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5385
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1335.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
830
0.75
672.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
911
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
125.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
1.29
INVENSYS
394.20
198.90
399.70
Neutral
Sell
372
1.41
LAIRD
206.10
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
76
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1511.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1270
1.00
RENISHAW
1751.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2549
1.26
SPECTRIS
2135.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2396
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.14
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
176.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
1.58
XAAR
639.00
185.00
639.00
Sell
Sell
253
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
84.25
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
101
1.28
BODYCOTE
545.00
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
529
1.60
CASTINGS
339.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
727
0.99
VESUVIUS
363.10
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
520
2.20
FENNER
366.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
574
1.42
HALMA
525.50
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
410
0.75
451.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
344
1.37
1326.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1424
1.41
281.10
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
560
1.82
2883.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2281
1.00
265.10
177.00
266.70
Neutral
Sell
220
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.25
35.40
99.42
Neutral
Sell
31
SPIRAX-SARCO
2812.00
1900.00
2822.00
Sell
Sell
2375
0.84
VITEC GROUP
592.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
618
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2415.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2115
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
400.00
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
687
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
283.10
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
181
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
377.30
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
201
0.57
TESCO
375.40
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
261
0.68
87.50
18.88
87.50
Sell
Sell
64
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
2031.00
1167.00
2031.00
Sell
Neutral
2176
0.62
CRANSWICK
1078.00
732.50
1082.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2149
0.43
DAIRY CREST
477.60
309.50
477.60
Neutral
Neutral
522
0.94
DEVRO
340.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
0.32
73.25
54.50
130.25
Neutral
Sell
-184
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
874.00
633.50
874.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1603
0.71
2852.00
2007.00
2852.00
Neutral
Neutral
2852
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.63
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
447.30
224.40
451.00
Neutral
Sell
384
0.54
1423.00
1000.00
1455.00
Neutral
Sell
1036
1.27
634.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
296
0.95
36.51
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Buy
41
1.51
142.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
54
1.13
31.00
19.50
39.50
Sell
Strong Buy
108
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
402.00
189.00
402.00
Neutral
Buy
531
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
832.00
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1597
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
54.00
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
93
1.25
KINGFISHER
326.70
254.10
330.60
Neutral
Buy
412
0.94
436.00
312.20
436.00
Neutral
Buy
548
0.65
56.25
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
63
1.04
338.25
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
373
0.47
NEXT
4615.00
2899.00
4615.00
Neutral
Sell
3950
0.67
TED BAKER
1363.00
840.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
695
0.55
66.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
775.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
574
0.39
OPTOS
160.00
145.75
257.00
Neutral
Neutral
169
1.18
780.00
580.00
780.00
Neutral
Sell
698
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
737.50
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
718
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
337.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
298
0.92
80.63
55.25
90.50
Neutral
Buy
105
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1097.00
469.00
1097.00
Sell
Sell
Target
564
Beta
0.74
549.00
200.30
549.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1294
1.18
62.38
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
48
0.90
316.80
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
530
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
136.30
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
705
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
214.75
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-494
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1283.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1257
0.53
AMLIN
434.00
312.90
434.00
Neutral
Sell
82
0.46
BEAZLEY
233.30
132.50
233.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1303
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
539.00
399.00
541.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2028
0.30
HISCOX
570.00
385.08
575.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2596
0.48
914.50
659.00
914.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1735
0.31
113.50
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
938
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
492.00
345.00
492.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2936
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2389.00
1969.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4178
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
111.40
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Neutral
115
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
355.40
158.00
355.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
810
1.01
800.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
705
0.39
GREENE KING
756.00
474.30
756.00
Sell
Sell
682
0.93
LADBROKES
211.30
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
262
0.93
1954.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1537
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
551.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
674
1.40
377.20
217.40
377.20
Sell
Sell
332
1.12
143.20
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.25
11.50
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
54
1.27
157.80
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
519.00
277.00
519.00
Neutral
Sell
336
WETHERSPOON (JD)
640.00
375.40
640.00
Neutral
Buy
773
0.69
WHITBREAD
2701.00
1786.00
2710.00
Neutral
Sell
2074
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
435.90
245.70
435.90
Neutral
Sell
267
0.87
MARSTON'S
152.40
94.40
152.40
Neutral
Sell
22
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
323.10
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
729
1.25
CHESNARA
259.75
155.25
259.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
408
0.70
186.30
106.00
186.30
Sell
Strong Buy
369
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
221.00
138.70
221.00
Neutral
Neutral
212
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1181.00
660.00
1181.00
Neutral
Sell
1051
1.71
605.50
303.40
605.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1520
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
116.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-610
0.37
826.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1834
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
34.13
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
1.03
763.50
363.50
763.50
Sell
Strong Buy
4322
1.14
1.00
1030.00
672.50
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8063
INFORMA
504.50
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-78
1.53
ITE GROUP
291.40
180.00
293.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
1.45
ITV
129.20
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1339
1.54
18.25
4.88
19.00
Sell
Buy
822
1.27
1206.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
335
0.63
81.00
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2765
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
921
0.16
34.94
26.85
35.01
Neutral
Sell
-608
0.50
STV GROUP
134.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
282
0.79
ST.IVES
151.50
67.50
153.00
Neutral
Sell
245
1.50
92.75
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-268
1.59
733.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1808
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
158.75
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1426
WPP
1156.00
743.00
1156.00
Neutral
Sell
-525
1.35
HIBU
0.40
0.26
3.22
Neutral
Strong Buy
852
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1544.00
1544.00
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1175
1.74
244.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Sell
230
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
919.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
850
1.41
1905.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2865
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
333.80
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
973
#NA
LONMIN
268.10
240.84
422.33
Neutral
Buy
343
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4800.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2970
0.34
RIO TINTO
2914.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2295
1.50
3.38
13.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2094
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1253.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1222.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1251
0.80
BP
467.60
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1571
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
276.30
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-19
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.88
7.66
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
14
0.82
860.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
450
1.31
1.36
67.25
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
304
379.50
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
288
1.43
2300.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9498
0.84
390.40
264.20
404.30
Neutral
Sell
251
0.53
1043.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
920
1.04
801.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
803
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
117.00
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
249
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
381.40
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
316
0.69
4780.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4814
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
1.01
3374.50
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6622
0.47
BTG
354.00
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
170
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
701.00
460.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
734
0.25
1717.50
1317.50
1717.50
Neutral
Sell
1597
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.15
1.55
3.70
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2040.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1388
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
45.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-135
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
426.70
274.50
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-610
1.18
BRITISH LAND
634.00
475.40
634.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1834
1.06
Target
Beta
36.13
22.75
36.13
Sell
Strong Buy
164
0.85
980.50
595.00
991.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4322
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2504.00
1708.00
2504.00
Sell
Strong Buy
8063
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
173.50
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-78
0.99
GRAINGER
154.40
83.10
154.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
590.50
367.80
590.50
Strong Sell
Strong Buy
1339
1.10
HAMMERSON
554.00
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Buy
822
1.19
HELICAL BAR
280.00
164.00
280.00
Neutral
Buy
335
0.77
985.00
704.00
985.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2765
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
356.90
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
921
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.50
127.00
145.38
Neutral
Sell
-608
0.73
400.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
282
0.42
332.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
245
0.35
76.00
32.50
76.00
Sell
Sell
-268
1.19
SAVILLS
600.00
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1808
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
657.00
492.00
657.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1426
1.05
SEGRO
295.60
209.40
295.60
Sell
Sell
-525
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
329.10
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
852
1.59
219.50
147.00
219.50
Neutral
Sell
-11
1.01
UNITE GROUP
387.50
180.25
387.50
Neutral
Sell
55
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1216
1.03
395.00
215.50
395.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1385
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
127.50
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
123
0.73
2285.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1325
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
442.00
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1360
1.00
KOFAX
327.75
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
325
1.11
27.50
18.25
27.50
Sell
Sell
24
0.85
676.50
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
1002
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
137.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
0.74
69.00
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-92
0.52
1922.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2092
0.76
352.20
247.70
357.00
Neutral
Buy
420
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
476.40
237.30
476.40
Neutral
Sell
155
BREWIN DOLPHIN
209.40
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.73
9825.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Neutral
9679
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
389.00
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
210
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
140.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
139
0.69
1081.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
254
0.86
92.25
67.75
110.40
Neutral
Buy
103
0.89
3.16
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
178.10
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
68
1.44
ICAP
338.80
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
245
1.07
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
451.80
227.30
451.80
Neutral
Sell
184
INVESTEC
502.00
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
139
1.56
1406.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3852
1.15
124.90
63.25
125.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
471
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1496.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1138
0.75
SCHRODERS
2560.00
1166.00
2560.00
Sell
Sell
1238
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
2000.00
966.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3886
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
213.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
299
0.92
AGGREKO
1750.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1328
1.05
AMEC
1065.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1159
1.04
632.50
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
327
1.63
1149.00
827.00
1163.00
Neutral
Sell
680
0.48
562.00
324.00
562.00
Neutral
Buy
820
0.76
1329.00
990.00
1329.00
Neutral
Sell
1010
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
448.00
214.00
448.00
Neutral
Neutral
452
0.39
CAPITA
947.50
602.00
947.50
Neutral
Sell
537
0.51
55.50
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
69
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
878.00
616.00
878.00
Neutral
Sell
619
BERENDSEN
768.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
1004
1.05
DE LA RUE
962.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
612
#NA
DIGNITY
1431.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
829
0.22
DIPLOMA
571.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
497
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
264.00
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
329
1.04
FILTRONA
742.00
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
356
1.13
G4S
250.00
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
299
0.58
96.00
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
124
1.10
HOMESERVE
216.30
137.50
248.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
501
0.94
INTERSERVE
507.50
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
703
1.28
3453.00
2456.00
3453.00
Neutral
Sell
1485
0.78
44.25
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
97
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.50
21.25
34.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
MENZIES (JOHN)
801.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1324
1.43
393.60
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
326
1.42
MITIE GROUP
271.90
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
350
0.55
92.50
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
0.33
PAYPOINT
888.50
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
706
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
226.00
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
294
1.33
REGUS
175.40
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
109
1.46
94.25
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
537.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
544
0.90
RICARDO
408.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
482
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
216.62
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
316
1.24
RPC GROUP
401.90
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Buy
547
0.78
RPS GROUP
237.30
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
253
1.51
SERCO GROUP
631.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
593
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
82.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
173
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
52.50
22.25
53.25
Neutral
Neutral
53
1.26
151.37
73.75
153.50
Neutral
Sell
52
0.63
53.00
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
63
0.93
333.00
237.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
638
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
187
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
312.60
200.70
312.60
Neutral
Buy
348
43.31
27.28
43.31
Neutral
Strong Buy
84
0.70
670.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
604
0.53
Beta
0.91
86.95
67.00
87.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
1.24
1217.00
695.00
1239.00
Neutral
Sell
759
0.09
195.20
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
171
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
272.50
178.00
273.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
182
Beta
1.30
420.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
467
0.98
CLARKSON
1650.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1504
0.80
EASYJET
1224.00
481.20
1224.00
Neutral
Sell
689
0.77
FIRST GROUP
222.70
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
580
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
950.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
408
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1538.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1912
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
211.50
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
259
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
335.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
STAGECOACH GROUP
313.00
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
371
0.89
54.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
385.90
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
526
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
844.50
641.00
847.00
Neutral
Buy
939
0.50
PENNON GROUP
696.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
866
0.59
SSE
1591.00
1294.00
1611.00
Neutral
Buy
1872
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2090.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1705
0.35
762.50
617.50
762.50
Neutral
Neutral
755
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
16 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
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IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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